A discussion of the most important news and issues in international affairs through a uniquely Australian lens. Hosted by Darren Lim, in memory of Allan Gyngell.
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Less than a year into Trump’s second term, his renewed push to acquire Greenland has escalated into a full-blown alliance crisis—complete with tariff threats against Denmark and other European backers, and a scramble for NATO unity. In (already) his second “emergency” episode of 2026 recorded solo on 18 January, Darren starts off by observing this episode doesn’t neatly fit neat orthodox models of international relations—it looks less like balancing or normal alliance bargaining and more like coercion and hierarchy politics, forcing Europe to weigh retaliation, endurance, and face-saving off-ramps. Given that, what kind of model(s) are useful?
Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning.
Relevant links
Stacie Goddard and Abraham Newman. 2025. “Further Back to the Future: Neo-Royalism, the Trump Administration, and the Emerging International System.” International Organization 79(S1): S12–25. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818325101057
In an episode recorded just before Christmas, Darren interviews Janet Egan, Senior Fellow and Deputy Director of the Technology and National Security Program at CNAS, about AI policy and its implications for Australia. Janet (who started her career in the Australian government) frames the current AI landscape as a two-horse race between the US and China, given vastly asymmetric investment levels. She introduces “compute policy” as a tractable governance lever, explaining that the physical infrastructure required for AI—specialised chips, data centres, and energy—offers regulatable chokepoints unlike easily transferable data or algorithms. The US strategy focuses on scale and removing barriers to advancement, while China, constrained by export controls on advanced semiconductors, pursues a diffusion-oriented approach emphasising open-source models and practical applications.
Turning to Australia's recently released National AI Plan, Janet offers a mixed assessment. She praises the establishment of an AI Safety Institute and the acknowledgment that data centres matter, while noting the plan avoided overly restrictive regulation that could stifle investment. However, she argues the plan misses a significant opportunity: positioning Australia as a compute hub for frontier AI training. Australia’s renewable energy potential, available land, and skilled trades workforce make it attractive for data centre buildout, but copyright restrictions on training data remain a key barrier.
Janet argues that unlike critical minerals, AI does not lend itself to hedging between Washington and Beijing given its inherently dual-use nature and emerging evidence of bias in Chinese models. She highlights the UAE and UK as instructive cases—the former for ambitious state-led mobilisation, the latter for sophisticated thinking about AI sovereignty structured around supply resilience, value capture, and strategic influence. For Australia, she argues, meaningful participation in the AI supply chain would provide strategic leverage and a seat at the table where consequential decisions are being made.
Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning.
Darren welcomes Richard McGregor, Senior Fellow for East Asia at the Lowy Institute and author of influential books "The Party" and "Xi Jinping: The Backlash," to discuss China's evolving political landscape and global position in 2025.
The discussion begins with examining how Xi Jinping has consolidated power beyond what seemed possible 15 years ago, eliminating term limits and establishing one-man rule despite China's complexity. Richard describes the muted but persistent internal resistance to Xi's leadership, including purged officials and liberal critics waiting in the wings, while noting how US-China tensions help Xi maintain domestic support.
The conversation moves to China's economic challenges, from the property crisis to overcapacity, and how the centralisation of power has shifted local government financing. McGregor discusses the sustainability of Xi's nationalist governance model and China's strengths in technological innovation despite structural problems.
On foreign policy, they analyse Trump's return and its implications for China, Southeast Asia's complex relationship with both superpowers, and the critical Taiwan issue. The episode concludes with an assessment of Australia-China relations under the Albanese government's "stabilisation" approach, examining domestic political factors and emerging challenges around Chinese technology integration in Australia's economy.
Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning.
Richard McGregor, Xi Jinping: The Backlash, (Penguin, 2019):
Ep. 75: PM to NZ; Samoa; Kabul embassy closure; Belarus; lab leak
Épisode 75
mercredi 9 juin 2021 • Durée 45:36
After some time away from the news, Allan and Darren have a lot to catch up on. This episode begins with PM Scott Morrison’s visit to New Zealand to meet his counterpart Jacinda Ardern. Allan provides his readout of the meeting, in which the leaders sought to affirm their shared interests and seemingly quash commentary that there are growing divisions in the relationship. Second on the list is an emerging constitutional crisis in Samoa, where a very close election result ended up in the courts, with the defeated incumbent not accepting the results. Is there anything Canberra can do? Third, the Australian government has announced the closure of its embassy in Kabul due to security concerns, perhaps no surprise given the ongoing troop withdrawals as the West tries to exit a 20-year war. But will the closure have a meaningful impact on Australian foreign policy?
Fourth, Darren offers his thoughts on the remarkable story in Belarus, where the government successfully forced a commercial airline flying between two European capitals to land so that it could arrest a dissident on board. Finally, Darren cannot resist but bring up the “lab leak hypothesis”, which is the possibility that COVID-19 leaked (accidentally) out of a lab in Wuhan, rather than jumping to humans from animals. Darren tries to set out why this hypothesis has transformed from fringe conspiracy theory to mainstream debate, one which the Biden Administration has publicly instructed its intelligence agencies to report on in the weeks ahead. How credible is the theory? Does it matter whether it’s correct? This is a deep rabbit hole and if listeners want follow Darren down it, some introductory links are in the show notes below.
As always, we invite our listeners to email us at this address: australia.world.pod [at] gmail.com We welcome feedback, requests and suggestions. You can also contact Darren on twitter @limdarrenj
We thank Mitchell McIntosh for his help audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music.
Ep. 74: Linda Jakobson (Part 2): Australia-China relations; Taiwan
Épisode 74
vendredi 28 mai 2021 • Durée 37:47
In the second half of this double episode with China expert Linda Jakobson, the conversation takes a broader focus. Allan begins with Taiwan, which has been in the headlines lately: how should we think about the dangers? What would it take for Beijing to use military force to resolve the situation?
The bulk of the episode is about the Australia-China relationship. How does Linda interpret the decline in bilateral relations—how much is it Australia’s ‘fault’ and how much is it China’s? What is the pathway forward? Linda offers her view, and then Darren and Allan provide their own assessments. Has China made up its mind about Australia? Finally, how can the West influence China and shape its choices? Is the deterrence/engagement binary a useful frame for thinking about the options?
As always, we invite our listeners to email us at this address: australia.world.pod [at] gmail.com We welcome feedback, requests and suggestions. You can also contact Darren on twitter @limdarrenj
We thank AIIA intern Dominique Yap for help with research and audio editing, and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music.
Ep. 73: Linda Jakobson (Part 1): On China, Chinese politics, and Finlandisation
Épisode 73
mercredi 26 mai 2021 • Durée 01:00:03
Allan and Darren welcome Linda Jakobson to the podcast. Linda is a leading China expert, and a vital voice in Australia’s own China debate. The conversation spans almost 100 minutes and will be released in two parts. At a time when the bilateral relationship is at a fresh low, this double episode offers genuine substance and depth on how one should understand China, diagnose the deterioration in Australia-China relations, and chart a pathway forward.
Linda is the founding director (and currently deputy chair) of the not-for-profit China Matters, an independent Australian policy institute (Allan sits on its Board of Directors). Linda lived and worked for over 20 years in China, including as the Beijing-based Director of the China and Global Security Programme at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). She moved to Australia in 2011 to serve as Program Director (East Asia) at the Lowy Institute, and in 2015 she founded China Matters and was its first CEO until 2019.
The focus in Part 1 is China itself. However, the conversation begins with Linda’s own personal story. Being Finnish, Allan wonders what Finland’s experience neighbouring a major power can teach Australia, while Darren asks whether Linda sees similarities between Finland’s approach and strategies in the region – are there “Finlands” in Asia?
Turning to China itself, how has Linda’s understanding of China changed? And who is “China” when asking this question? Linda answers the question from different perspectives. Is China exceptional in what it wants?
The conversation turns to domestic politics. What is the range of views inside the country on the direction China is taking? To what extent is there pushback against Xi Jinping’s approach, and what could be the mechanisms through which change comes? How big is China’s political elite, anyway? And how can observers even answer these questions, given the increasingly closed nature of the Chinese system. Is “Pekingology” going to resemble Kremlinology?
Stay tuned for Part 2 of the conversation!
As always, we invite our listeners to email us at this address: australia.world.pod [at] gmail.com We welcome feedback, requests and suggestions. You can also contact Darren on twitter @limdarrenj
With President Joe Biden announcing the forthcoming withdrawal of ground troops from Afghanistan, the West’s 20 year war in Afghanistan is drawing to a close. Allan and Darren open this week’s podcast with a discussion of whether this is the right decision, and what lessons we should take from this decades-long conflict. The episode then turns to a busy week in bilateral relations with China for both New Zealand and Australia. Kiwi Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta gave her first major speech on China, and followed it with some controversial comments (in Australia, at least) about the expansion of the remit of the Five Eyes intelligence grouping. Meanwhile, the Australian government used purpose-built legislation to cancel two memoranda of understanding between the Victorian state government and the Chinese government on the Belt and Road Initiative – to Beijing’s predictable displeasure. Does this past week reveal a split in the two countries’ approach to China? What is the logic of each approach? Finally, Japan’s Prime Minister Suga met with Joe Biden at the White House, with China front and centre of the discussion—what are the major takeaways?
We thank AIIA intern Dominique Yap for research and audio editing, and thanks also to Rory Stenning for composing our theme music.
The primary focus of this week’s episode is the terrible situation in Myanmar as the Tatmadaw, the country’s military, cements its coup with increasing levels of violence. Allan’s first posting was to the country and so he leads off with a personal reflection of great sorrow. Turning to analysis, what was the cause of the conflict and to what extent did the country’s civilian government, led by Aung San Suu Kyi, play a role? Is the military sufficiently powerful that it will inevitably be a major player in Myanmar’s political future, analogous to the Taliban in Afghanistan or the Assad regime in Syria? Does Myanmar need a Nehru-like figure?
Turning to the international dimension, what are the policy challenges facing Washington, Beijing and New Delhi? Is this an opportunity for China to display regional security leadership, and what is the place of sovereignty in this discussion? Is this an existential crisis for ASEAN? Darren is intrigued by elite debates on the issue within Singapore, which leads to a wider discussion of ASEAN’s balancing act between maintaining unity and upholding the principle of non-interference, versus newer interests in shaping the emerging regional order. Turning to Australia—what are our interests and can we somehow play a positive force? Allan raises a curious question regarding whether the Australian government’s policy is to recognise only states, or whether it can recognise specific governments, as it did with Venezuela in 2019.
The discussion then moves to Papua New Guinea and its devastating Covid-19 outbreak. Darren describes some of the factors that distinguish this particular humanitarian crisis, and asks Allan what the balance is for Australia between moral imperative and strategic interest. Darren wonders whether pandemic disinformation on social media might be a spark to begin a discussion of broader social responsibility for companies like Facebook.
Finally, Peter Dutton is the new Defence Minister. Darren asks Allan to reflect on the unique challenges of the portfolio, and why so many of Dutton’s predecessors seem to have had limited success.
We thank AIIA intern Dominique Yap for research and audio editing, and thanks also to Rory Stenning for composing our theme music.
Whereas the previous episode looked at the early weeks of the Biden administration, this week Allan and Darren examine the new trajectory of US-China relations. A theatrical public session grabbed the headlines when senior officials met in Alaska, but the readouts from the closed door meetings were more positive. What should we take away from the public drama?
Within a few days of that first meeting, the atmosphere became tenser with the EU joining the US, UK and Canada in sanctioning certain Chinese officials over human rights abuses in Xinjiang. Beijing was furious, and retaliated with sanctions against EU and UK individuals and entities, including academic researchers and think tanks (after recording, Chinese sanctions were also announced on individuals in the US and Canada). Was this a reciprocal response, or were the Chinese escalating?
With ratification of an investment agreement between the EU and China before the European Parliament, the sanctions dispute may end up demonstrating how the “adversarial” dimensions of the China’s relationship with the West can spill over and undermine a “collaborative” enterprise, to use Secretary Blinken’s formulation. And given China’s disdain and vitriol towards any criticism of its human rights record, what can the West hope to achieve in this domain?
While Australia did not impose its own sanctions, it supported the effort in a joint statement with New Zealand. Allan and Darren mull over Australia’s own dilemma regarding human rights and China, as well as other news on the relationship. Australia’s Ambassador in Beijing, Graham Fletcher, made some very pointed comments to an Australian business audience, describing the trade disruptions as “vindictive”. Meanwhile, Canberra received support from an unexpected source, the Secretary General of NATO, former Norwegian PM Jens Stoltenberg, who said China “had behaved very badly against Australia”.
As the podcast draws to a close, Allan and Darren consider the outcomes from the Quad leaders’ meeting, which for Darren are a useful indication of the type of international cooperation that could become the norm in the future. Finally, with former Australian Finance Minister Mathias Cormann winning his campaign to be elected the next Secretary General of the OECD, Allan discusses the behind-the-scenes effort that would have gone into the campaign, and the significance of his success for Australia.
Ep. 69: Biden’s early days; Quad; Pacific Islands Forum
Épisode 69
samedi 13 mars 2021 • Durée 45:07
The major focus this episode is the early weeks of the Biden administration, which has raced out of the blocks with numerous foreign policy actions, and some have been controversial. Nevertheless, how does it feel to have things (roughly) back to normal again? Putting the news of the day to one side, Allan and Darren direct their attention to two speeches, one given by President Biden, and the other by Secretary of State Blinken, which chart a course for US foreign policy. What will it mean for the US to lead again? Is a “foreign policy for the American people” simply “America First with better manners”? Darren sees parallels with PM Morrison’s concept of “negative globalism”, and he does not see this as a terrible thing! And all the new administration’s emphasis on democratic renewal, what would a realistic plan in this domain look like – is one even possible?
The White House also realised an interim national security strategic guidance entitled “Renewing America’s Advantages”. At an impressive 7,000 words in length, it presents much more detail on how the Biden team sees the world. Darren wonders however at the inherent contradictions in its objectives, while Allan notices—tucked right at back of the document—a remarkable, even radical, vision for reforming the basic structure of national security policymaking in Washington. Canberra should take notice.
Next, with the inaugural Quad leaders meeting happening later that day, Allan and Darren both offer their thoughts about the grouping and what it can become into the future.
Finally, the Pacific Islands Forum is on life-support following the announcement that its five Micronesian members intended to withdraw following a dispute over the election of a new Secretary General. Why does this matter for Australia and what is to be done?
We welcome our new AIIA intern Dominique Yap and thank her for research and audio editing today. Thanks also to Rory Stenning for composing our theme music.
Darren Lim and Nathan Attrill, “Australian debate of the China question: The COVID-19 case”, Forthcoming, Australian Journal of International Affairs, available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=3856586
Natasha Kassam and Darren Lim, “How China is remaking the world in its vision”. Extract from chapter in Australian Foreign Affairs, The Conversation, 22 Feb 2021:
(Youtube Video) “'Beautiful to see': New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern on the travel bubble | ABC News” [Ardern’s comments on Five Eyes], 20 April 2021: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2c1S2pIDKH8
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