From lingering "Liberation Day" tariff fears and a shift toward a more pro-growth federal policy stance to changing leadership within key sectors, Canadian equity portfolio manager Mark Rutherford unpacks what moved markets for Canadian equities in 2025. He explains how this backdrop influenced recent positioning in the Canadian equity portfolio, including adjustments within energy, banks, and gold. The conversation then turns to the U.S. intervention in Venezuela and its implications for Canadian oil: how potential increases in Venezuelan heavy crude could affect Western Canadian differentials, why integrated producers may be relatively better positioned, and the role of TMX export capacity in supporting basin pricing. Stepping back, Mark explores the move toward a more transactional, spheres of influence world and how the team is incorporating this evolving U.S.–Canada dynamic into portfolio construction through diversified, incremental shifts rather than binary macro bets.
Key Highlights:
• In 2025, Canadian equity returns were shaped less by the initial "Liberation Day" tariff shock and more by how markets digested that risk over time alongside a domestic pivot toward pro-growth policy—forces that helped support energy, commodities, and especially the banks.
• Within financials, Canadian banks—TD in particular—saw improving fundamentals as credit conditions held up, wealth and capital markets businesses performed well, and a more growth oriented regulatory stance supported competitiveness.
• In energy, the team tilted toward integrated producers like Suncor and trimmed more differential sensitive exposure such as Canadian Natural, balancing the long-term risk of higher Venezuelan heavy crude supply against the offsetting support of TMX export capacity.
• The team selectively added to gold producers, seeing attractive unit economics and reasonable valuations, and viewing gold as a useful diversifier in a world of geopolitical tension, dedollarization talk, and looser fiscal discipline.
• Stepping back, Mark frames Venezuela and trade policy within a broader shift toward transactional spheres of influence and "mercantilist" great power politics—arguing for diversified, incremental positioning changes rather than binary macro bets or anchoring portfolios to any single geopolitical outcome.
Host: Andrew Johnson, CFA Portfolio Manager
Guest: Mark Rutherford, CFA Equity Analyst
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Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.
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