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Explore every episode of the podcast The Transfer Flow Podcast

Dive into the complete episode list for The Transfer Flow Podcast. Each episode is cataloged with detailed descriptions, making it easy to find and explore specific topics. Keep track of all episodes from your favorite podcast and never miss a moment of insightful content.

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TitlePub. DateDuration
Episode 20 - Liverpool Sign Chiesa, Simakan Linked with Newcastle, and Darwin Nunez to Arsenal?29 Aug 202400:44:44

Ravi and Patrick discuss Federico Chiesa signing with Liverpool, his role, and the potential to move out wide. Next, they move to Darwin Nunez potentially leaving Liverpool, Arsenal being a possible landing spot, and Arsenal lacking attacking depth. They then touch on Newcastle's interest in RB Leipzig defender Mohamed Simakan after being unable to finish their Marc Guehi transfer, comparisons of the two players, and Newcastle's hopes for the season. Lastly, they finish with Dani Olmo's fantastic Barcelona debut, and the injury to 17-year-old midfielder Marc Bernal.


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Episode 19 - Victor Osimhen's Price, Juventus' Spending Spree and Barcelona Finally Register Dani Olmo27 Aug 202400:58:12

On this episode, Patrick and Ravi discuss Napoli's move this off-season, including new manager Antonio Conte, and how what Victor Osimhen's price is now. Next, they move to Juventus and their acquisition of Francisco Conceicao and Nico Gonzalez. They also touch on Dominic Calvert-Lewin being linked with Chelsea, Barcelona FINALLY registering Dani Olmo, and what the future may look like for Endrick at Real Madrid.


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TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 - Intro

03:00 - Napoli's moves this Summer

04:40 - Conte as Napoli's Manager

05:56 - The addition of Lukaku

08:03 - Scott McTominay

09:50 - Coaching Blindspots

13:12 - Billy Gilmour

13:45 - David Neres

17:41 - New Centerbacks

20:01 - Osimhen's Price

22:49 - The issues PSG are facing

23:56 - Juventus targeting wingers

24:30 - Francisco Conceicao

28:23 - Nico Gonzalez

30:43 - The financial risk of amortization

31:02 - Liverpool's approach vs Juve and Napoli

37:09 - Chelsea and Dominic Calvert-Lewin

46:34 - Could Arsenal be in for DCL?

51:24 - Dani Olmo Registered by Barcelona

54:49 - Endrick's Future



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Episode 12 - Mbappe Buys a Team, Jadon Sancho's Future, and Conor Gallagher to Atletico?01 Aug 202400:53:06

On this episode, Ted and Patrick discuss Kylian Mbappe purchasing a stake in Caen, Jadon Sancho's uncertain future, and Conor Gallagher's fit with Atletico Madrid. They also get into the importance of sell-on clauses and how teams utilize them, Teun Koopmeiners' next move, and Jake O'Briens move to Everton.


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Episode 11 - Chelsea's Strange Signings, Victor Osimhen's Next Club, and Viktor Gyokores30 Jul 202400:48:42

On this episode, Ravi and Patrick discuss Victor Osimhen's strengths and his fit at different clubs, Viktor Gyokeres potential move to the Premier League and how much he should cost, and Chelsea signing their EIGHTH goalkeeper. They also dive into Celtic's Matt O'Riley play in the preseason, Federico Chiesa open to leaving Juventus, and more.


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Episode 10 - Manchester City's Future Plans, Liverpool's Search for a DM, and Villa's Busy Summer25 Jul 202400:48:44

On this episode, Patrick and Ravi discuss Ederson potentially leaving Man City and possible replacements, Liverpool's drop in midfield quality and their search for a defensive midfielder, and Aston Villa's ambitious transfer window and possible Joao Felix addition.


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#ederson #manchestercity #mancity #mosalah #liverpool #liverpoolfc #joaofelix #epl #premierleague #soccer #football


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Episode 9 - Liverpool's Mo Salah Replacement, Kevin De Bruyne to Saudi, and the USMNT Coaching Search23 Jul 202400:58:45

On this episode, Ted and Patrick discuss Liverpool's efforts to replace the aging Mo Salah, Kevin De Bruyne agreeing to terms with Al-Ittihad, and the search for the next USMNT manager. They also get into PSG and Bayern Munich's interest in Desire Doue, their Arsenal fandom, Cody Gakpo and future plans for gambling content.


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Episode 8 - Leny Yoro to United, Trent Alexander-Arnold's Potential Move, and Xavi Simmons19 Jul 202400:53:17

On this Episode, Ravi and Patrick discuss Leny Yoro's move to Manchester United, Real Madrid possibly tempting Trent Alexander-Arnold away from Liverpool, and landing sports for Xavi Simons. They also touch on Adrien Rabiot, Martin Terrier and the ripple effects in the transfer window.


Ravi has worked in sports data analytics and player development for over a decade, helping build the Seattle Sounders analytics team. Patrick is a Therapist by day, but has written and produced content about football for nearly a decade, primarily with Sky Sports Media.


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Episode 7 - Joao Neves, Marc Guehi, and the Chelsea Academy Changes16 Jul 202400:53:37
On this episode, Ted and Patrick go into Joao Neves and how much his transfer fee should be, Marc Guehi being linked to Liverpool, and the potential ramifications of the Chelsea Academy changes. They also discuss Emile Smith Rowe and the uncertainty surrounding Arsenal's young players, Joshua Zirkzee's move to Manchester United and more.

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Episode 6 - Copa America Skirmish, England Advance, and a "Staged" Photoshoot?11 Jul 202400:55:11
In this episode, Ted Knutson and Ravi Ramineni discuss Uruguay vs. Colombia and the skirmish that followed. They touch on the resurgent England midfield, as well refereeing and a controversial penalty call against the Netherlands. The conversation moves to the challenges newly promoted teams face in the Premier League and what Ipswich's transfer strategy should look like. Ted and Ravi finish the conversation by discussing Jaden Philogen and his agent's Barcelona photoshoot, Dani Olmo's release clause and potential landing spots, and how TV rights deals are impacting the transfer market.

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Episode 5 - LCBs, Data Scouting Kids, plus the USMNT Problem05 Jul 202400:57:39

In this episode, Ted Knutson and Ravi Ramineni discuss the importance of left-footed center backs in football/soccer. They explore the reasons why teams prioritize left-footed center backs, such as the ability to play across the body and open up the field. They also discuss the trade-offs teams have to make when choosing between an aerially dominant center back or one who is good on the ball. The conversation touches on specific left-footed center backs in the transfer market, including Ricardo Calafiori, Jarrad Branthwaite, and Max Kilman.


The conversation also covers the struggles of CONCACAF teams in the Copa America. They also touch on the performance of the United States national team and the talent level of American players. The conversation concludes with a discussion about Chelsea's signing of young player Aaron Anselmino and the difficulties of evaluating young talents.


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Episode 4 - Kobbie Mainoo + England. Ugarte, Gordon, Nico Williams + More03 Jul 202400:49:17
Ted and Patrick Van Straaten discuss their backgrounds in professional gambling and football media, as well as their experiences in the world of football analytics. They touch on topics such as the early days of using data in football, the importance of age curves in player development, and the challenges of making predictions in public. They also discuss the performances of young players like Kobbie Mainoo and the potential transfer of manuel Ugarte to Manchester United. In this conversation, Patrick and Ted discuss various transfer rumors and player evaluations. They touch on topics such as the potential transfer of Joshua Kimmich, the rebuilding project at Manchester United, the rise of Nico Williams at Athletic Bilbao, the future of Anthony Gordon at Liverpool, and the interest in Calafiore from Arsenal.

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Episode 3: Transfer Takes on Jonathan David, Joshua Kimmich, DCL and More27 Jun 202401:00:39
Ted thinks Yankuba Minteh could be a future star.

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Episode 18 - Gundogan Returns to Man City, Georginio Rutter, and Maresca Speaks on Chelsea's Squad22 Aug 202400:41:50

On this episode, Ravi and Patrick start off with Ilkay Gundogan leaving Barcelona to return to Manchester city in what could be Pep Guardiola's last season. Then, they discuss Georginio Rutter moving to Brighton, Brighton's Transfer strategy, and Sander Berge moving to Fulham. They finish with Oliver Skipp's move to Leicester and Enzo Maresca speaking out on Chelsea's training sessions despite their huge squad.


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TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 - Intro

01:15 - Gundogan returns to City and Pep's Last Season?

09:44 - Georginio Rutter to Brighton/ Brighton's transfer Strategy

20:44 - Sander Berge to Fulham/ Fulham's squad

33:04 - Oliver Skipp and why did Leicester City spend 25m on him?

38:25 - Enzo Maresca speaks on how Chelsea manages their training


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Episode 2 - Nikos Overheul19 Jun 202400:56:08

Ted Knutson and Nikos Overheul discuss their experiences in the football industry, including their time at Brentford and Vancouver Whitecaps. They highlight the challenges of building and running a club, the importance of clear objectives and strategies, and the common pitfalls in the industry. They emphasize the need for effective communication, realistic expectations, and a well-thought-out hiring process.


The conversation covers various topics related to working in football, including the emotional connection to the game, the challenges of hiring coaches, evaluating players, and the current state of the Dutch national team. The hosts discuss the importance of having a clear style of play and aligning recruitment with the team's goals. They also highlight the flaws in the hiring process and the difficulty of projecting player performance. The conversation ends with a story about a team requesting increasingly positive reports on players they were planning to sign.


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Episode 1: An Interview with Ravi Ramineni. Plus Man United's Football Shambles14 Jun 202401:04:57

In this conversation, Ted Knutson interviews Ravi Ramineni, a former VP of analytics and research at the Seattle Sounders. Ravi shares his journey from being a fan of Spanish football to working in the futbol/soccer and analytics space. He discusses his transition from a software engineer to a football analytics professional and his experience working with the Sounders. Ravi also talks about the challenges of working in a multiclub group and his decision to start a football consulting company. He emphasizes the importance of personal fit and finding a role that aligns with one's goals and values. The conversation covers various topics, including having access to coaching staff, and the weird things that happen at clubs, including Ravi's experience translating for a player during a visa issue


The back half of the episode switches into current football topics,like the challenges faced by Manchester United, the impact of financial regulations like the Premier League's PSR and UEFA's FFP, and the decision-making process for young players like Benjamin Sesko on whether to make a pressure-filled leap to the Premier League. We also discuss the changing role of the football front office and the need for sophisticated financial modeling and risk management in the era of salary caps..


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Episode 17 - Joao Felix to Chelsea, Mbappe's First La Liga Game, and Manchester United Survive 20 Aug 202400:54:03

On this episode, Patrick and Ravi discuss Manchester City vs. Chelsea, Raheem Sterling's comments on his omission from the squad and Joao Felix's transfer. They then touch on Real Madrid struggling in Kylian Mbappe's first La Liga game and their tendency to play through the left side, as well as Manchester United's narrow victory over Fulham.


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Episode 16 - Manchester United's New Duo, Liverpool's Contract Situation, and a Kingsley Coman Loan?15 Aug 202400:46:56

On this episode, Patrick and Ravi discuss Matthijs de Ligt and Noussair Mazraoui joining from Bayern Munich, Kinglsey Coman's possible loan to Arsenal or Barcelona, and Liverpool Stars entering the final year of their contracts. Plus Arsenal's attempt to sign Mikel Moreno, why South American players may be more likely to join a Saudi side than Europeans, and more!


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TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 - Intro

2:05 - De Ligt and Mazraoui join United

15:28 - Kinglsey Coman's loan move

24:35 - Arsenal's attempt to sign Mikel Merino

31:25 - Liverpool Stars entering the final year of their contracts

39:42 - The impact of Saudi on decision making


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Episode 15 - Ali From NTT20 on Championship Promotion/Relegation, Manager Changes, and Players to Watch14 Aug 202400:39:21

On this episode, Ali Maxwell, co-host of the Not The Top 20 Podcast, joins Patrick and Ravi to discuss the promotion and relegation battles in the championship, managerial changes and their impacts, and players to watch in this Championship season. They also get into Wayne Rooney at Plymouth, manager performance vs. perception, and surprises after the first week of games.


Not The Top 20's EFL Preview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jy8OiJPgh5E


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TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 - Intro

1:37 - Managerial changes in the championship

6:10 - Plymouth sign Wayne Rooney

12:00 - Manager performance vs. perception

15:45 - Style vs. Results

18:27 - Promotion and relegation battles

21:12 - Newly relegated teams and how championship teams stack up

23:00 - Promoted/relegated teams adapting to a new style of play

25:30 - How will teams from League 1 cope?

29:37 - Players to keep an eye on

34:33 - Which new transfer/young player will break through?

36:10 - Any Surprises after week 1?


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Variance Betting Episode 2 | Professional Gambler Shares His English Premier League Preseason Picks13 Aug 202400:33:15

Ted Knutson, former professional gambler, breaks down market implied models, the different odds styles in various countries, and shares picks for the Premier League title, top four, and relegation battles. He also dives into what's next for Variance Betting and shares stories from his time at Pinnacle and as a professional gambler.


Link to Odds Checker: https://www.oddschecker.com/


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TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 - Introduction

1:32 - Ted's time at Pinnacle

4:04 - the goal of Variance betting

5:45 - models + humans

8:00 - Behind the scenes at Pinnacle

13:26 - Learning from your mistakes

14:04 - The market implied model

16:09 - Value in the winners market

17:10 - Different odds styles

18:41 - Back to the winners market

19:56 - The Arsenal wager

21:43 - Liverpool's value

22:28 - The top four

23:56 - Bankroll management

25:00 - Manchester United's value

25:55 - Newcastle and Chelsea's value

27:33 - The relegation market

28:30 - Southampton's relegation chances

28:50 - Ipswich's Odds

29:12 - Leicester losing their coach

29:33 - Crystal Palace

30:41 - Wolves chances

30:58 - Everton to stay up?



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Variance Betting Episode 1 | Former Professional Gambler Shares His Knowledge with YOU!13 Aug 202400:23:16

Ted Knutson, former professional gambler, discusses his history with gambling, his plans for his new venture Variance Betting, and shares picks for the upcoming championship season. Subscribe for more!


Sites mentioned:

Bet105 - https://bet105.eu/en?clickid=QiMBLJfA-Vpn7ty2Gsq9MGNd7ZgqdRLk&sportId=220

Prime Sports: https://www.primesports.com/

Pinnacle: https://www.pinnacle.com/en/


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Episode 14 - Dani Olmo to Barcelona, Arsenal Players Pickpocketed, and Martin Zubimendi to Liverpool?11 Aug 202400:47:15

On this episode, Patrick and Ravi discuss Martin Zubimendi being linking with Liverpool and his similarities to Xabi Alonso, Dani Olmo's strange move to Barcelona, and Newcastle being linked with Marc Guehi. They also get into Maximilian Beier's potential move to Dortmund and Mikel Arteta hiring pickpockets to steal from his players to "keep them on their toes"


Link to the Sid Lowe article on Zubimendi that Ravi mentioned: https://www.theguardian.com/football/2022/sep/08/real-sociedad-martin-zubimendi-xabi-alonso-manchester-united?CMP=share_btn_tw


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Timestamps:

00:00 - Introduction/Leagues Cup discussion

03:45 - Martin Zubimendi linked with Liverpool

07:55 - Zubimendi's versatility and potential impact

09:23 - Comparison to Xabi Alonso

15:27 - Dani Olmo's curious move to Barcelona

16:12 - Olmo's long injury history

17:38 - Barcelona's problem finding youth minutes

19:52 - Olmo ISN'T a winger

23:14 - Barcelona refuse to learn

25:01 - Max Beier moving to Dortmund

29:01 - What position is best for Beier

29:36 - Marc Guehi to Newcastle

32:10 - Concern with 1v1 defending

36:04 - Mikel Arteta's pickpocket saga

38:22 - The wrong time for a lesson

46:35 - Outro


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Episode 13 - The Striker Market with Julian Alvarez to Atletico, Solanke to Spurs, and Chelsea Signing Another 09 Aug 202400:41:26

In this episode, Patrick and Ravi discuss the Striker market. They go into Julian Alvarez' transfer to Atletico Madrid and his fit in Diego Simeone's system, Dominic Solanke signing with Tottenham, Samu Omorodion joining a packed Chelsea squad, and West Ham completing a move for 31-year-old Niclas Fullkrug.


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Episode 21 - Arsenal Needed Another Attacker | EPL Transfer Grades (Part 1)03 Sep 202400:39:16

Ted and Ravi discuss their transfer grades for Arsenal, Aston Villa, Bournemouth, Brighton and Brentford. We start with Arsenal, who made some solid signings this window, but failed to improve their attacking depth and we disagree a bit on the quality of the incoming transfers. We also grades for the next 4 Premier League teams in alphabetical order. Namely, Villa's PSR driven offseason and some good business by them in the offloading of Douglas Luiz and Moussa Diaby, but did the incomings substantially improve the Champions league team? Next, Bournemouth's big sale of Dominic Solanke and where they might replace his production. Finally, we finish with why we rated Brentford's window a mild success, and discuss how Brighton's aggressive approach might pay off for them. Enjoy!


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TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 - Intro

03:00 - Arsenal Discussion

04:3 - Arsenal's Grades

05:58 - Riccardo Calafiori and Ben White

06:28 - Mikel Merino

07:36 - Adding Sterling

08:24 - The need to improve the #9 position

09:00 - Osimhen allegedly offered to Arsenal

09:41 - Aston Villa Weirdness 

11:34 - Ian Maatson

12:48 - The Jaden Philogene Saga

13:20 - Douglas Luiz and Moussa Diaby

15:10 - Villa Grade

15:18 - Bournemouth and their Stadium

16:10 - Offseason additions (players & staff)

19:10 - Replacing Dominic Solanke's Production

21:31 - Grades & Above average talent for Bournemouth is a win

22:33 - Brentford

22:42 - Selling Ivan Toney to Saudi and Fabio Carvalho

23:47 - Igor Thiago

27:56 - Jayden Meghoma

28:48 - Brentford Grades

29:13 - Brighton

30:11 - Brighton's Net Spend this window

31:48 - Not investing in their Academy

32:06 - Yankuba Minteh

32:44 - Mats Wieffer

34:48 - Fabian Hürzeler and the risk of a 31-year-old manager

37:46 - Challenging for CL spots?

38:49 - Brighton Grade


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Episode 22 - Chelsea NEEDS to STOP! | EPL Transfer Grades (Part 2)04 Sep 202400:40:34

Chelsea's transfer window was a disaster, so make sure to listen until the end to hear our thoughts on what is probably the worst window for ANY club in many years. We're grading 5 teams in alphabetical order on the second episode of our offseason transfer grades, starting with Crystal Palace and their head-scratching decision to not sell Marc Guehi to Newcastle. Then, Everton's Poor window to go along with their lackluster start of the season. Next comes Fulham, who sold João Palhinha for 50m, but chose to reinvest some of that money into older players. And finally, before we go in on Chelsea, we touch on Ipswich's risky transfer strategy and how it sets them up for the future, even in they get relegated.


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Timestamps - 

00:00 - Intro

02:06 - Crystal Palace's Window

02:42 - Failing to sell Marc Guehi

03:36 - 2 new centerbacks

04:04 - Oliver Glasner as manager

04:18 - Will Hughes

04:53 - Teams Scrambling to find a backup goalkeeper

05:18 - Joachim Andersen

05:53 - What will they get out of Eddie Nketiah?

07:38 - The Grade for Crystal Palace

08:09 - 5M for Jordan Ayew??

08:21 - Moving on to Everton

09:02 - Blowing a 2-0 lead in the 87'

09:40 - Jarrad Branthwaite and Jacob O'Brien

10:45 - Everton's struggles this window

12:27 - Their squad mismanagement

13:58 - Everton get their Grade

14:26 - Fulham's window

15:37 - 50M+ for João Palhinha and where they spent the money

16:39 - Spending money on older players

18:03 - Elite players can age gracefully

20:05 - Emile Smith-Rowe and Joachim Anderson

20:48 - Grades for Fulham

21:05 - Ipswich's window

22:12 - the need to change their playstyle

23:48 - Ed Sheeran and Taylor Swift

24:13 - The 3 options Ipswich had entering the Premier League

25:44 - Risky transfers that set them up for success

27:14 - Ipswich's lack of outgoings

27:51 - Chelsea's crazy window

28:41 - Ravi's biggest issue with Chelsea's window

30:11 - A fix for load management?

30:44 - Chelsea operating like an investment fund

33:33 - A huge risk on Pedro Neto

35:16 - Similarities to Barcelona

36:13 - Where Chelsea deserve credit

37:07 - Chelsea's assumptions make backfire

39:44 - How did Chelsea grade?



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Episode 23 - Liverpool's Transition Window and a Newcastle DISASTER | EPL Transfer Grades (Part 3)05 Sep 202400:39:22

On this episode, Ted and Ravi discuss the transfer windows for Leicester City, Liverpool, Manchester City, Newcastle, and Nottingham Forrest. They start with a confusing window for Leicester and move to Liverpool in their first window under Arne Slot. Next up is Manchester City, who made some good moves and got good value for Julian Alvarez. Then comes Newcastle, who had possibly the worst window of any team not named Chelsea. Finally, they discuss Nottingham Forest's VERY busy window.


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TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 - Intro

00:48 - Leicester City Inbounds

01:41 - Bilal El Khannouss

02:55 - Caleb Okoli and Odsonne Édouard

03:42 - Oliver Skipp and Harry Winks

05:06 - Facundo Buonanotte's loan

06:45 - Leicester's Overall Grade

07:02 - Using early games to predict relegation

09:13 - Liverpool's transition window

11:09 - Lack of new contracts for their 3 stars

15:00 - Long-term view vs. short/medium term

16:00 - When to move on from stars

17:45 - Salah changing his game as he ages

20:28 - The decision for TAA/ Real Madrid leveraging stars

22:15 - Zubimendi in January?

22:56 - Manchester City's Window and Sávio

23:30 - Gundogan joining from Barcelona

24:45 - Selling Julian Alvarez

26:47 - Madrid coming for Rodri?

27:58 - Newcastle's Window

28:13 - Their lone savior?

29:26 - Not overpaying for Marc Guehi

31:49 - Clubs that are good at extracting value for players

34:20 - Nottingham Forrest's busy window

35:43 - Evaluating their window on face value

36:33 - Inbound grade for Forest

37:32 - Did they solve their issues from last year?


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Episode 24 - Manchester United and Tottenham Spend BIG | EPL Transfer Grades (Part 4)06 Sep 202400:33:12

Ted and Ravi discuss the summer windows for Manchester United, Southampton, Tottenham, West Ham and Wolves. They start with United's expensive, but sensible, window and how their new signings may fit in the squad. Then comes newly promoted Southampton, who made additions at goalkeeper and to their defense in the hopes of staying up. Tottenham paid up for Dominic Solanke and Archie Gray, while West Ham spent too much on a number of different moves. Finally, we discuss Wolves window and what essentially feels like them playing the lottery.


Ugarte Newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/p/manuel-ugarte-manchester-united-transfer-rumours-analysis


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TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

0:36 Man United Overview

1:50 Man United Finishing Top 4

2:14 Squad Needing Change

2:59 Resisting Overpaying

3:58 Joshua Zirkzee

4:11 De Ligt

4:50 Too Many Ajax Players?

5:16 Overpaying For Leny Yoro

5:30 Window Review

6:37 Manuel Ugarte

8:00 United Outgoings

11:10 Southampton Overview

11:59 Aaron Ramsdale

12:31 Making Loans Permanent

13:02 Mateus Fernandes

13:40 Yukinari Sugawara

14:00 Brereton Diaz

15:02 Some Confusing Signings

15:40 Southampton Outgoings

15:51 Southampton Overall Grade

16:22 Spurs Overview

16:56 Dominic Solanke

18:30 Overpaying for youngsters?

19:46 Incomings Grade

19:52 Spurs Outgoings

21:38 West Ham Overview

22:30 Risky Transfer Strategy?

23:42 Niclas Fullkrug

26:19 Max Kilman

26:45: Jean-Claire Todibo

27:41 Wan-Bissaka &

28:09: West Ham Outgoings

28:42 Outgoing Grades

28:57 Wolves Overview

29:24 Wolves Outgoings

29:39 Andre

30:00 Sam Johnstone

30:23 Strand Larsen

31:36 Wolves Overall Grade

32:21 Outro


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Episode 25 - Chelsea's Ownership Crisis and Arsenal's Injured Midfield10 Sep 202400:55:14

Ted and Ravi start by discussing a controversial analytics take from someone that's a part of the community. Next, they talk about Chelsea's owner rift and the leaks that suggest a potential buyout may happen. They then get into discussion about Arsenal's injury situation with Martin Odegaard and Mikel Merino set to miss time. And finally, they wrap up with the MLS transfer window and all of the things that you need to know about that, including biggest additions and misses of the window.


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TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 - Intro

01:48 - Is analytics for player recruitment solved?

03:18 - every action in football has 3 parts

04:40 - You don't have data for everything

06:15 - Difficulty at scale

07:30 - Different level of information impacting decision makers

09:48 - Evaluating players from lower leagues

11:53 - Player factors impact on transfer success

13:55 - Chelsea's ownership rift

16:13 - Boehly joined and isntantly became Interim Sporting Director

16:58 - Where this confidence comes from

17:43 - 2 captains driving the boat

19:52 - Football clubs run like investment funds

21:46 - Blitzer and Harris make co-ownership work

22:31 - Arsenal's injury situation

23:59 - Small point loses feel insurmountable

25:04 - What would a long-term Odegaard injury mean?

26:06 - Champions League format changes help

26:29 - September International break

29:18 - MLS window rules and time period

30:21 - MLS is paying real money

32:22 - Their offset window creates mismatches

33:45 - Josh Sargent example

35:17 - How MLS can fix this issue

35:58 - Extra problems that come with overseas transfers

37:48 - The profile of MLS Winter signings

38:28 - NWSL eliminating the draft

39:45 - MLS academies draining talent out of the draft

41:12 - Balancing International roster spots

42:13 - Big free agent signings - Giroud and Reus

42:50 - Discovery Lists

44:16 - Griezmann rumours

47:15 - MLS connection with South/Latin America

48:15 - Spurs weird deal for Johnny Cardoso

49:20 - More additions to the MLS this year

51:10 - Players the U.S. and Canada excel at creating

52:26 - Deals that fell through because of the deadline mismatches



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Variance Betting Episode 3 | How To Be a Smarter Premier League Bettor13 Sep 202400:34:20

Ted Knutson, former professional gambler, explains his best betting practices and discusses his Premier League Matchday 4 picks. Subscribe for more!


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TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Introduction

1:44 Who is Ted Knutson?

2:20 Working With Pinnacle.com Products

3:26 Working at Brentford/Midtjylland & SmartOdds

4:05 Founding StatsBomb

4:25 Present Day — TheTransferFlow.com

4:58 Variance Betting Principles

5:21 Discount Bookies > Bonuses

8:20 Price Shop

10:37 Working with Models & Knowledge

12:35 Why Early Season is Tricky

13:54 Your Bets are your own

14:47 Market Implied (MI) Model

16:18 Be careful about Promoted Teams

17:18 Expected Goals (xG) Model

18:07 Caveats

21:06 Plugs

20:23 Recreational Sports Betting

22:32 Brighton v Ipswich Bet

23:52 Southampton v Man United Bet

25:11 Crystal Palace v Leicester Bet

26:02 Fulham v West Ham No Bet

26:25 Liverpool v Nottingham Forest Bet

27:25 Man City v Brentford No Bet

28:35 Aston Villa v Everton No Bet

29:46 Bournemouth v Chelsea Bet

31:20 Spurs v Arsenal Bet

32:39 Wolves v Newcastle No Bet

33:31 Recap 

33:54 Outro


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Episode 26 - Spurs' biggest weakness, Liverpool get upset, and Newcastle's power struggle16 Sep 202400:55:07

Patrick and Ted start the episode by discussing the North London Derby and the weakness that Spurs continue to show in their midfield. Next, they move to Liverpool, who seemed to have fixed there defense, but were unable to get anything going offensively. After touching on City vs Brighton and United vs Southampton, they move to Newcastle's Internal power struggle, as Eddie Howe and Paul Mitchell compete for power. Finally, they end the episode with their thoughts on Chelsea vs Bournemouth (hint: not good) and West Ham vs Fulham. Enjoy!


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TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 - Intro

03:28 - Arsenal vs. Spurs

04:47 - The midfield battle

06:30 - Spurs crosses were not effective

07:38 - How teams can get value from crosses

09:23 - Watching the ball vs. the man

10:11 - Spurs' biggest weakness

10:41 - The type of midfielder Spurs needed

11:52 - More opportunities for mistakes

13:40 - The evolution of pressing

14:33 - Alexis Sanchez' pressing ability

15:32 - Arsenal's plan this game

18:39 - The launch of Variance Betting

19:38 - Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest

19:53 - High handicaps coming off international break

20:43 - The signs of value of Nottingham Forest

22:22 - Liverpool's defense continues to shine

23:14 - Liverpool's offensive struggles

25:05 - Ryan Gravenberch in a deeper role

27:16 - Brentford vs. City

28:11 - Thomas Frank as Manager

31:12 - Brentford's possession #'s against City

31:28 - City's lack of pressing

32:05 - The problems Pep is facing

34:20 - Manchester United vs Southampton

35:37 - United's set piece goal

36:40 - Tyler Dibling

37:24 - Is Russell Martin's job safe?

40:13 - Newcastle's internal conflict

42:21 - Paul Mitchell vs Eddie Howe

44:24 - Newcastle are doing well in the table

44:46 - How do Newcastle mend things?

46:06 - Chelsea vs Bournemouth

47:17 - Subbing in Neto for Jadon Sancho

48:09 - Bad signs for long-term success

48:55 - Chelsea need a structured attack

50:53 - West Ham vs Fulham

51:37 - Danny Ings

53:21 - Brighton vs Ipswich



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Episode 27 - Haaland's new role, Champions League format verdict, and Barcelona's strong start19 Sep 202401:04:07

Ted and Ravi discuss Manchester City and Inter Milan's chances of winning the Champions League, changes to Erling Haaland's role, Barcelona's strong start and their expectations for the season. They then answer some listener questions which include discussions on player stocks, what to do when teams begin to figure you out, and a deep dive into the use of data to overturn some traditional football opinions.


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TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Episode Overview

00:33 Introduction

2:38 Man City VS Inter Milan

3:20 Inter in the UCL

6:45 Man City’s UCL Squad

7:45 Man City’s New Style Of Play

12:50 New UCL Format

18:32 Player Fatigue

20:42 Barcelona As Contendors

22:10 Dani Olmo & Barca Injuries

23:35 Hansi Flick’s Bareclona

25:35 Emergence of Youngsters

27:17 Barcelona Expectations

29:05 Biggest Changes Under Flick

32:42 Barca’s UCL Schedule

33:08 Most Entertaining Team

33:42 Hansi Flick vs Xavi

36:25 Players Stocks

39:22 Stocks To Buy

40:14 Bournemouth Under Iraola

40:47 Teams Figuring You Out

43:36 Two Halves of a Season

46:30 Kieran McKenna

47:15 Using Data To Overturn Traditional Opinions

58:45 In Swinging Corners vs Out Swinging Corners

1:03:16 Outro


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Variance Betting Episode 4 | Why I'm Betting AGAINST Liverpool20 Sep 202400:26:01

Ted Knutson, former professional gambler, explains his Premier League Matchday 5 picks and why he is betting AGAINST Liverpool. Subscribe for more!


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TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Introduction

00:45 Last Week Recap

1:12 TheTransferFlow & VarianceBetting

2:13 Closing Line Value

6:11 Why Does It Matter?

7:25 West Ham v Chelsea 

9:17 Aston Villa v Wolves

10:41 Fulham v Newcastle

11:54 Leicester v Everton

13:42 Southampton v Ipswich

15:31 Liverpool v Bournemouth

17:59 Spurs v Brentford

19:31 Crystal Palace v Manchester United

21:37 Brighton v Nottingham Forest

22:37 Manchester City v Arsenal

24:45 Championship Betting

25:15 Conclusion


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Episode 28 - Pep Screwed Up, Arsenal's Set-Pieces, and Luis Diaz's Improvement23 Sep 202400:47:37

Patrick and Ted discuss how Pep Guardiola didn't take advantage of Arsenal going down to 10 men, Danny Welbeck's rejuvenation, and Luis Diaz's improvement. They also recap all the other action from this weekend's Premier League games, including West Ham's horrible defence, and a deep dive into Arsenal's set-pieces. Enjoy!


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00:00 Episode Overview

00:30 Intro

1:47 Crystal Palace v Manchester United Review

4:24 Thoughts on Zirkzee

6:33 United’s Improved Defence

7:37 Man City vs Arsenal Review

9:17 Calafiori Golazo

10:51 Gabriel Goal & Arsenal Set Pieces

15:40 Second Half Analysis

18:03 Arsenal Defence

21:38 West Ham v Chelsea Review

22:32 Thoughts on Lopetegui

24:38 West Ham Defensive Issues

27:44 Fulham v Newcastle Review

32:45 Liverpool v Bournemouth

36:00 Luis Diaz Improvement

37:30 Brighton v Nottingham

38:25 Goals Analysis

40:28 Danny Welbeck Rejuvenation 

41:40 Refereeing In Premier League

43:28 Brighton Being A Young Arsenal

44:30 Weekend Recap

46:30 Outro


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Episode 30 - Cole Palmer is a Superstar + it's time for Ten Hag to go30 Sep 202400:59:08

Patrick and Ted discuss the best way for Manchester United to move on from Erik Ten Hag and debate whether Cole Palmer is currently the best player in the Premier League. They also analyse the Madrid Derby and do a deep dive on Bayern Munich under new manager Vincent Kompany. Enjoy!


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Timestamps:

00:00 Episode Overview

00:36 Intro

1:46 Bayern vs Leverkusen review

4:30 Bayern going under the radar

6:55 Match breakdown

9:47 Kompany’s impact

11:30 The Pep Guardiola Effect

13:52 Man United vs Spurs Review

18:58 United’s terrible midfield

19:32 Spurs looking dangerous

19:54 Ten Hag and Man United’s summer recruitment

23:56 Man United’s new manager hunt

40:59 Chelsea’s start to the season

43:34 How not to play out from the back

44:43 Nicolas Jackson’s hot start

45:00 Is Cole Palmer the best player in the League?

51:00 James Justin golazo

51:30 Madrid Derby Review

56:17 Outro

57:42 Variance Betting Subscription update


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Episode 29 - How Man City Replace Rodri, Barcelona Flying While Real Madrid Stars Lack Chemistry26 Sep 202401:01:53

Patrick and Ravi discuss how Man City can cope without Rodri, potential replacements, and a La Liga Roundup. They analyse Barcelona's strong start to the season, Real Madrid's start studded squad, Atletico Madrid's solid defence, and ownership issues in the league. Enjoy!


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Timestamps:

00:00 Episode overview

00:37 Intro

1:53 Barcelona’s surprising form

2:30 Ter Stegan’s injury & replacements

9:09 Can Barcelona hold off Real Madrid?

13:16 Real Madrid’s recent form

15:44 Lacking balance in midfield

17:42 Madrid’s stacked attack

20:50 Concerns about defence

22:40 Atletico Madrid’s Strengths & Weaknesses

26:25 Analysing Atleti’s solid defence

29:13 Valencia’s struggles

31:40 Sevilla’s ownership issues

32:56 Valencia under Peter Lim

37:22 Rodri ACL injury

41:40 Impact on Man City

43:15 How can City cope?

47:10 What solution will Pep come up wIth?

50:18 Potential Rodri replacements

1:00:45 Outro


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Episode 31 - Arsenal Dominate PSG, Barcelona's Youth Integration, and Dortmund's Managerial Situation03 Oct 202400:57:12

Patrick and Ravi discuss Arsenal's win over PSG, Dortmund's demolition of Celtic, and Barcelona's loss to Osasuna. They further analyse Dortmund's managerial situation, Barca's incredible youth integration, and Arsenal's defensive tendencies. Enjoy!


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Timestamps

00:00 Episode Overview

00:23 Intro

2:35 Arsenal v PSG Review

3:08 Lineup Reaction

6:07 Tactical Breakdown

8:35 Absence of Dembele

9:14 PSG creating identity

10:27 Arsenal’s dominant defence

13:15 Are Arsenal too defensive?

17:10 Dortmund v Celtic Review

22:51 Dortmund under Sahin

26:31 Will Dortmund sack Sahin?

28:30 Barcelona’s loss to Osasuna

30:08 How to properly rotate your squad

38:56 Champions League format thoughts

40:00 La Masia player integration

46:58 Are some positions easier to break into?

54:25 Outro


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Variance Betting Episode 5 | Why I'm Betting AGAINST Chelsea04 Oct 202400:22:10

Ted Knutson, former professional gambler, explains his Premier League Matchday 7 picks. Subscribe for more!


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Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

00:54 Asian Handicap betting explained

4:23 Newsletter

5:39 Crystal Palace v Liverpool

6:42 Leicester City v Bournemouth

7:57 Arsenal v Southampton

9:11 Brentford v Wolves

10:07 West Ham v Ipswich

12:24 Man City v Fulham

14:15 Everton v Newcastle

15:48 Chelsea v Nottingham Forest

17:22 Aston Villa v Man United

19:30 Brighton v Spurs

21:25 Outro


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Episode 32 - Brentford Solved Football, Bayern's Fragile Defence, Real Madrid's Injuries, and the End of Short Goal Kicks?07 Oct 202400:52:42

On this Episode, Ted and Patrick do a deep dive on Brentford's fast starts to game and how teams are undervaluing set pieces. They then move to discussion on playing out of the back, which has caused issues for many teams to start the season. Next, they move to Bayern Munich's recent games and their high defensive line looking fragile. To end, the move to quick hits on Real Madrid's injury situation and their need to spend big in the winter window, Micky van de Ven struggle in Spurs' loss to to Brighton, and Cole Palmer during Chelsea's 1-1 draw with Forest. Enjoy!


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Timestamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:18 - Brentford have solved Football

01:54 - Set Pieces and Ted's history with them and Brentford

06:33 - Brentford has applied this to kickoffs

08:28 - Is it sustainable?

09:22 - Zdeněk Zeman

10:22 - Team's undervaluing set pieces

13:21 - The biggest differences between a corner and a long-throw in

16:17 - How the fast starts have helped Brentford

19:54 - Principles to watch on set pieces

22:49 - Football being influenced by other sports

25:33 - Short goal kick equilibrium

26:16 - Daryl Morey's thoughts on short Goal kicks

28:27 - Forcing other teams to adapt to your style

28:51 - The end of short goal kicks?

33:09 - Teams that adapt faster will benefit

33:17 - Bayern's recent struggles

35:13 - Omar Marmoush's good form

36:24 - Bayern's high line is vulnerable

39:03 - Pep's ability to kill off games

40:39 - Will Kompany be able to learn?

43:04 - Real Madrid's injuries and the Winter window

43:49 - Madrid are missing Kroos

44:15 - Petar Sucic as a Kimmich-like

45:35 - van de Ven and Spurs vs Brighton

47:07 - Mitoma's = Bukayo Saka?

48:45 - The Welbeck winner and 2 amazing assists from the weekend

49:15 - Chelsea vs Forest and Cole Palmer


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Episode 34 - Breaking Down Serie A’s Top Contenders: Can Conte and Napoli win the title, should Inter be the favorites, and are Lazio Legit?14 Oct 202400:54:44

On this episode, Patrick and Ravi do a deep dive on the top teams in Serie A. They start with Napoli, who are top of the table despite what may have been the worst transfer window of any team. Next is Inter and their hopes back-to-back titles. Can they pull it off again despite an aging squad? Then comes Lazio, whose unconventional approach to players and manager hires sparks an interesting discussion on high variance teams. Last comes Milan, who almost sacked manager Paulo Fonseca early in the year, but have stabilized to be just 5 points out of first place. Enjoy!


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Timestamp:

00:00 - Intro

01:07 - Napoli’s fantastic start

01:40 - Our rough grades for Napoli’s window

03:04 - Lack of minutes for new players

05:26 - A more Conservative defensive style

06:28 - Grades are not based on 7 games 

08:02  - Low shot quality in Serie A

10:53 - Lack of depth in attack for Napoli limits their title threat?

11:58 - Napoli’s advantage with no European Competition

14:50 - Where will they finish?

16:12 - Inter’s erratic start to the season

17:22 - The most balanced team in Serie A?

18:58 - Inter’s defensive shift

19:20 - Can the oldest team in Serie A keep this up?

21:31 - Marcus Thuram

22:39 - Do Inter need to share minutes more?

25:19 - Could they switch styles later in the year?

26:55 - Predictions for Inter’s season

27:17 - Lazio’s surprising start

28:41 - unexpected names contributing for Lazio

31:10 - Marco Baroni’s influence

35:43 - Are fringe European teams to conservative with their coaching hires?

39:12 - Thomas Tuchel’s training stories and how coaches influence their players

42:36 - Analytics only matter if you can translate them into simple messages

45:15 - Milan shake off a rough start

47:14 - Favorable matchups coming up

47:57 - Pulisic playing well and staying healthy

49:38 - Rafael Leao’s Attacking threat

51:47 - Using avoidance strategies to change player behaviors





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Episode 33 - Who should Real Madrid sign to replace Dani Carvajal, Chelsea’s Attacking Dilemma, Manchester City Lose Their Director of Football, and What’s Next for Paul Pogba?10 Oct 202400:54:45

On this episode, Patrick and Ravi discuss Dani Carvajal's injury and potential replacements that Real Madrid should consider. Can they get Trent Alexander-Arnold to come over, or should they look elsewhere? They then get into Chelsea's front line and which combinations of players is best for their team. Next, Manchester City's Director of Football Txiki Begiristain is set to leave, who are the likely hires with Pep's departure looming. Finally, Paul Pogba suspension was reduced, where are the likely landing spots for the 31-year-old Italian midfielder? Enjoy!


Ted's article on potential Toni Kroos replacements: https://www.thetransferflow.com/p/kroos-ify-me


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Timestamps:

00:00 - Intro

00:46 - Dani Carvajal's injury

01:34 - Specifics of the injury

04:50 - Carvajal's 1 year extension

05:23 - Solutions for Real Madrid

05:57 - A leadership gap

07:33 - Can Madrid lure Trent Alexander-Arnold?

10:03 - Hakimi as an option at RB

12:50 - Sliding Militao over from CB?

15:16 - Other candidates at RB

17:55 - Will Kroos unretire?

18:20 - Unresolved Vini Jr/Mbappe problems

19:55 - Who should play in Chelsea's front line?

24:29 - The disadvantage of signing the best players from smaller sides?

26:26 - Where does Nkunku fit in?

27:23 - Can players change their pressing style?

30:18 - Joao Felix's adaptability

31:02 - What happens against better sides?

32:33 - City lose their Director of Football, Txiki Begiristain

33:24 - How did Txiki perform?

36:17 - Potential replacements

39:09 - How does a DoF influence the rest of the back room?

42:47 - Will the next DoF be more powerful with Pep likely gone?

45:38 - Paul Pogba's suspension reduced

46:12 - Where might Pogba end up?

48:38 - Is MLS an option?

50:20 - Could he stay in Italy?

51:28 - Playing Pogba as a 10

53:16 - Taking a smaller contract to entice bigger teams



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Episode 35 - EPL Roundup: Top 6 Predictions, Relegation Battles, and Teams the Table Is Lying About 16 Oct 202401:04:39

On this episode, Ted and Patrick discuss all things Premier League related from the start of the season. They begin with teams that should be higher or lower than their current position in the table. Next, they decide which of the 4 relegation candidates will stay up. And finally, both Patrick and Ted give their predictions for the Top 6. Where do you think Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester City, Chelsea, Manchester United, Tottenham, and the rest of the Premier League will finish?


Sebastian's guest newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/p/3-young-attacking-mids-on-the-rise


Ted's preseason gambling podcast: https://youtu.be/keg7HlCXPwE


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Timestamps:

00:00:00 - Intro

00:02:34 - Who is the premier league table lying about right now?

00:02:41 - Newcastle United

00:05:37 - Giving honest takes vs driving engagement

00:06:31 - The table of justice

00:07:16 - Tottenham should be slightly better

00:08:03 - Spurs are playing like a Bundesliga team

00:09:12 - Exciting young pieces

00:11:03 - Where are they likely to finish?

00:12:44 - Bournemouth are better than the Table says

00:14:30 - Optimism for Everton

00:15:10 - Guest Newsletter authors

00:15:45 - Dwight McNeil’s blossoming role

00:18:11 - A Cash injection this January can fix their issues

00:19:02 - Everton fans should be happy with the takeover

00:21:35 - Manchester United’s rough start

00:22:36 - The Model’s take on United before the season

00:24:34 - United don’t tolerate long processes

00:26:20 - United fans who have never seen the good times

00:27:12 - Of the 4 candidates, who will get relegated?

00:27:27 - Ipswich

00:29:30 - Wolves

00:31:40 - Patrick’s prediction to stay up

00:32:43 - Leicester’s 5 point advantage

00:34:06 - the difficulty making a case for any of these teams

00:36:30 - What the gambling markets say

00:38:50 - Predicting the top 6

00:39:11 - factoring in a potential punishment for City

00:41:23 - Patrick’s top 4

00:42:40 - Talent goes a long way

00:44:56 - Patrick’s title winner

00:48:07 - Patrick’s 2nd place team

00:52:39 - 3rd place

00:56:48 - Debating the Last Champions League spot

00:59:57 - Patrick’s 5th and 6th place

01:00:24 - What the betting markets say

01:01:46 - Ted’s top 6

01:03:26 - When we’ll check back in on our predictions


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Episode 36 - Red Cards and VAR got Arsenal AGAIN, Liverpool Survive Chelsea, and Southampton Need a New Manager21 Oct 202400:45:13

On this episode, Ted and Patrick discuss the eventful Liverpool vs. Chelsea match and Liverpool's defense looking vulnerable. They also discuss the impact VAR had over the weekend, and get into Saliba's red card in Arsenal's 2-0 loss to Bournemouth. Next comes Southampton's loss to Leicester and Russell Martin's comments after the game. They finish with Fulham vs. Aston Villa, Brighton vs. Newcastle and the resurgence of Raul Jimenez, Manchester United looking competent, and the trend of teams playing safer.


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00:00 - Intro

01:06 - Liverpool vs. Chelsea

03:23 - Trent Alexander-Arnold is a double-edged sword

04:22 - How cautious can you be in the modern Premier League?

05:07 - Concern for Andrew Robertson?

07:44 - Did Chelsea deserve an early penalty?

08:00 - VAR and red cards this weekend

08:44 - Caicedo as a playmaker

09:58 - This was Liverpool’s first real test

10:41 - Arsenal vs. Bournemouth

11:47 - Saliba’s red card

13:03 - Marginal calls in football

14:55 - How coaches game plan in the Premier League

16:24 - Manchester City look fragile

17:35 - Taking a red card vs. allowing a chance

19:16 - Southampton vs. Leicester City

20:36 - Russell Martin’s comments after the game

22:02 - How coaches start to talk when they want to be fired

25:29 - Mourinho’s ability to deflect from a bad performance

26:17 - Southampton’s poor performance under Martin

28:38 - 8 point gap to Leicester now

28:59 - Facundo Buonanotte and Brighton’s future

30:35 - Fulham vs. Aston Villa

33:03 - Neutral’s will love Fulham games

33:15 - Raul Jimenez is in insane form

35:10 - The resurgence of Old and Tall strikers

36:32 - Newcastle vs. Brighton

38:52 - Manchester looked competent

40:53 - Garnacho’s tendency to take wide-angle shots

42:45 - Is the trend of teams playing safer a problem?


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Episode 37 - El Clasico Preview, Real Madrid vs. Dortmund, and Xabi Alonso to City?23 Oct 202400:49:29

On this episode, Patrick and Ravi discuss Real Madrid's 5-2 win over Dortmund and the injuries to Thibaut Courtois and Rodrygo. Next, they preview the Barcelona vs. Bayern Munich Champions League match today and how the game might be insightful for El Clasico on Saturday. They then dive into the best lineups for both Real Madrid and Barcelona, how much injured (Dani Olmo and Gavi) and older (Luka Modric) might play, and give their predictions for the final score. They end the conversation with Xabi Alonso's rumoured exit from Bayer Leverkusen at the end of the season, potential landing spots, and if he will actually leave. Enjoy!



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Timestamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:02 - Real Madrid vs. Dortmund

04:32 - Real Madrid’s defense was shocking

05:32 - Different Midfield lineups Madrid has used

06:50 - Ravi’s pre-game prediction

07:48 - Bellingham last season vs. this season

09:43 - Modric, Valverde, and Madrid’s Galactico mindset

11:02 - How do they fix their midfield issues?

11:41 - How much will Modric play?

14:08 - Will Rodrygo be the odd man out?

15:12 - Barcelona vs. Bayern Munich Preview

16:20 - A good test for Bayern

17:39 - Barcelona players returning from injury

18:50 - How much can Gavi give them?

21:02 - What front 3 will Barcelona play?

22:35 - Giving minutes to returning players against Bayern

23:33 - What lineup will Madrid use against Barcelona?

24:10 - Courtois injury for Madrid

25:19 - An offensive vs. defensive lineup

26:37 - Stylistic matchups

28:21 - Should Barcelona play more conservatively?

30:11 - Both teams are weak at fullback

31:13 - Lewandowski should play as a pivot

31:57 - Ideal lineup for Barcelona

33:21 - Ravi’s predictions for El Clasico

35:38 - Patrick’s prediction for El Clasico

36:45 - Flick’s first Clasico

37:12 - A La Liga game vs. a Champions League game

39:19 - Leverkusen rumoured to be looking for a Xavi Alonso replacement

40:14 - The timing with Txiki’s departure and Pep’s contract expiring

40:52 - Real Madrid also make sense

41:34 - Hugo Viana and Ruben Amorim

42:21 - The obvious spot for Xabi Alonso

44:25 - What happens if Carlo Ancelotti doesn’t want to leave?

47:18 - Alonso’s contract ends in 2026



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Variance Betting Episode 6 | Backing Liverpool.. and FULHAM? EPL Matchday 9 Picks25 Oct 202400:19:40

On this episode, Ted shares his picks for EPL matchday 9. He starts by explaining why he flat bets and when to use accumulators. He gives insights on the matches he's betting on, including Arsenal vs. Liverpool, and explains why he's staying away from certain matchups (both City and United). Enjoy!


More information on fractional Kelly betting: https://www.pinnacle.com/betting-resources/en/betting-strategy/revisiting-the-kelly-criterion-part-2-fractional-kelly/gbd27z9nljvgflgg


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Timestamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:18 - Why do you bet flat amounts?

03:44 - Why don't you bet accumulators?

06:23 - Leicester City vs. Forest

07:16 - Aston Villa vs. Bournemouth

08:03 - Brentford vs. Ipswich

09:02 - Manchester City vs. Southampton

09:51 - Brighton vs. Wolves

11:33 - Everton vs. Fulham

13:10 - Chelsea vs. Newcastle

14:15 - Crystal Palace vs. Tottenham

15:33 - West Ham vs. Manchester United

17:02 - Arsenal vs. Liverpool


#premierleague #epl #betting #liverpool #arsenal #chelsea #tottenham #soccer #football #manchesterunited


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Episode 38 - Manchester United SACK Erik ten Hag, Potential Replacements, and Barcelona THRASH Real Madrid28 Oct 202401:03:05

On this episode, Ted and Patrick discuss Manchester United firing manager Erik ten Hag. They run down why he had to be fired, Ruud van Nistelrooy as interim manager, and potential names for the job. Then, Ravi joins Patrick to discuss Barcelona's 4-0 victory over Real Madrid over the weekend. They talk about Barcelona's high line causing problems for Madrid, Madrid lacking a holding striker, and if Barcelona can maintain this form for the rest of the season. Enjoy!


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Timestamps:

00:00:00 - Intro

00:00:47 - United sack Erik ten Hag

00:01:31 - Ruud van Nistelrooy interim manager

00:01:45 - Manchester United’s recent form

00:04:14 - Trends for United

00:04:39 - Could they be better with a better coach?

00:05:39 - What a good and bad manager change process looks like

00:07:24 - The U Curve of coaches

00:10:18 - Could ten Hag’s hurt United?

00:10:56 - Dan Ashworth’s limited early influence

00:11:53 - Who should United hire?

00:12:39 - Pochettino and Tuchel already have jobs

00:13:28 - Could van Nistelrooy stay on?

00:14:29 - Gareth Southgate

00:15:27 - Ruben Amorim

00:15:54 - How do budgets play into the new hire decision?

00:17:51 - Xavi as next United manager?

00:20:05 - Luis Enrique

00:21:12 - Graham Potter

00:23:09 - Eddie Howe

00:24:24 - Mourinho was the most pragmatic of recent United coaches

00:25:05 - Michael Carrick

00:28:44 - Adi Hutter

00:30:57 - Bournemouth manager Andoni Iraola?

00:31:47 - Thomas Frank

00:34:08 - The ability of a manager to get player buy-in

00:35:41 - Roger Schmidt and his pressing style

00:37:44 - Julian Nagelsmann

00:39:44 - Should United settle for the least costly option?

00:40:53 - The stress of managing/working for a team

00:41:38 - Ravi joins to talk El Clasico

00:42:46 - The game was closer than the score and Barca’s impressive workload

00:44:33 - Madrid’s gameplan was to be direct

00:45:19 - Was Fermin Lopez the correct choice?

00:46:06 - The technical ability on display

00:46:46 - Substitutions settled the game for Barca

00:47:55 - Casado’s line-breaking pass for Goal #1

00:48:52 - The high line was very impressive

00:50:11 - Lucas Vazquez struggled

00:53:14 - Who should be blamed for Madrid?

00:54:46 - Madrid struggle with a pivot and where was Endrick?

00:56:52 - Bellingham’s lack of forward threat

00:58:52 - Can Barcelona sustain this performance?

01:02:06 - Mbappe moving to the right side?

#manchesterunited #realmadrid #barcelona #manutd #eriktenhag #elclassico #football #soccer #podcast


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Variance Betting Episode 7 | Why You MUST Wait for Lineups to Bet This Week - EPL Matchday 10 Picks01 Nov 202400:13:47

Ted Knutson shares his insights for EVERY EPL Matchday 10 game and discusses why you MUST wait for the lineups before betting certain games.


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Timestamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:05 - Liverpool vs. Brighton

01:48 - Why you must check the lineup before betting this match

02:22 - Ipswich vs. Leicester City

02:41 - Forest vs. West Ham

03:48 - Bournemouth vs. Man City

04:44 - Newcastle vs. Arsenal

06:13 - Southampton vs. Everton

06:36 - Wolves vs. Crystal Palace

07:03 - Tottenham vs. Aston Villa

09:29 - Manchester United vs. Chelsea

11:31 - Fulham vs. Brentford









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Episode 39 - How To Get a Job in Sports Analytics30 Oct 202401:09:05

On this episode, Ted and Ravi answer frequently asked questions about getting started in sports analytics using their extensive knowledge and experience in the industry. They get into how to look for a job, the skills you need, and what to expect once you land a job. If you have more questions you want answered, leave them in the comments down below!


Details for Ravi's conference in Houston:

https://americansoccerinsights.com/


Data Contest/Call for Proposals:

https://americansoccerinsights.com/call-for-proposals


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Timestamps:

00:00:00 - Intro

00:01:01 - How do I get started?

00:04:46 - What skills do I need?

00:21:25 - Where to look for football jobs?

00:23:17 - Apart from football clubs, where are some other places I can find data jobs in football?

00:26:25 - I want to go into football, but I don't have the data skills - where can I learn them fast?

00:35:24 - How can I set myself apart from the crowd?

00:46:00 - The pay seems very low - what can I do about it?

00:51:10 - What's it look to work for these teams?

01:04:52 - What are your biggest takeaways from working in sports?


#dataanalytics #analytics #data #football #soccer #sports #sportsanalytics #premierleague #mls #stats


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Episode 42 - Man City Are Old and Slow, The INSANE Serie A Title Race, and Arsenal vs. Chelsea Breakdown11 Nov 202400:43:47

On this episode, Ted and Patrick discuss Man City losing their fourth game in a row — is it all down to injuries, or do they have bigger issues in the squad? Next, they break down Arsenal vs. Chelsea, who played to a 1-1 draw over the weekend. They dive into Arsenal’s struggles in attack, Maresca’s impact at Chelsea, and Martin Ødegaard’s return from injury. Finally, they analyze the chaos of the Serie A title race, where just two points separate the top six teams. Who are the title favorites, and who should you be rooting for? Enjoy!


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Timestamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:04 - Man City lose AGAIN

02:04 - A different Man City vs. years past

02:21 - Man City injuries + squad age

03:01 - Brighton’s adjustments won them the game

04:45 - City’s old midfield

05:56 - Brighton’s next 9-figure player?

07:19 - City have young players, but not centrally

07:46 - Can City fix this in January? Or will it cost them the title

09:22 - Liverpool’s youth players are playing well

10:28 - City can’t let their stars play the whole time

11:10 - Creating chances despite losing

11:38 - Nobody has full control this season + Villa vs. Liverpool

12:57 - Teams will drop lots of points this season

15:33 - Man City/Liverpool title odds

18:32 - English teams in the Champions League

19:24 - Arsenal vs. Chelsea

19:39 - Odegaard minutes + called up for Norway again

20:23 - Game breakdown

22:36 - How do Arsenal start attacking again

23:51 - Maresca’s influence + Chelsea in a tight table position

26:07 - Caicedo + a shaky defense

27:21 - Chelsea are bad at set piece execution

28:46 - The crazy Serie A title race

29:37 - The most entertaining league in the world (except for Juve)?

30:03 - Conte and Napoli + Other good coaches in Serie A

31:21 - 8 teams with a positive xG difference

32:03 - Fiorentina are coming from nowhere + Napoli/Juve bad attacking numbers

33:22- Atalanta are the best attacking team + Sarri/Lazio

34:56 - Napoli are not taking enough shots in big games

35:31 - We liked Juve’s transfer window

37:30 - Which teams should you root for? + Zlatan overseeing things at AC Milan

38:45 - Lampard or Mancini to manage Roma?

39:51 - Newcastle dominate Forest




#manchestercity #seriea #premierleague #arsenal #chelsea #liverpool #manchesterunited #newcastle #napoli #juventus #intermilan #acmilan #football #soccer


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Episode 41 - Why are Real Madrid and Man City STRUGGLING + Who Replaces Edu Gaspar at Arsenal?07 Nov 202401:04:48

On this episode, Patrick and Ravi start by discussing Edu Gaspar leaving Arsenal. What should Arsenal look for in their next sporting director, what names are on the list, and how does Arteta factor into the equation? Next they move to Manchester City’s 4-1 loss to Ruben Amorim’s Sporting CP, Victor Gyokeres’ performance, and City’s dependence on Erling Haaland to score goals. Lastly, they cover Real Madrid losing another game at home, this time a 3-1 defeat to AC Milan. Do Madrid have a politics problem with their lineups, should Endrick and Arda Guler get more minutes, and will Carlo Ancelotti be the manager next season? Enjoy!


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Timestamps:

00:01:11 - Edu Gaspar Leaves Arsenal

00:01:47 - How big a change is a move like this behind the scenes?

00:04:37 - Jason Ayto to become Interim Sporting Director

00:06:28 - Difficulty finding a Sporting Director at a top team + Edu’s transfer record

00:10:46 - How do Arsenal go about finding a replacement?

00:12:57 - You need someone who is comfortable with disagreements

00:15:59 - Who are the candidates on the shortlist?

00:17:12 - Julian Ward + Txiki Begiristain

00:18:49 - Monchi

00:19:58 - Paul Mitchell

00:20:21 - Arsene Wenger??

00:21:29 - Roberto Olabe

00:24:03 - Personality might be the biggest part of this hire (to stand up to/mesh with Arteta)

00:25:31 - Phil Giles

00:26:14 - How long will Arteta stay at Arsenal?

00:29:11 - Ruben Amorim and Sporting defeat Man City

00:30:33 - Viktor Gyökeres performance + will he be in the Premier League soon?

00:32:22 - Sporting did not play their usual style

00:33:45 - City had problems trying to breakdown Sporting’s defense

00:35:24 - Injuries hurting City + KDB returning

00:38:19 - Overreliance on Haaland + lack of attacking creativity

00:42:37 - How can Brighton take advantage of City’s bad form?

00:45:59 - Weird Medical remedies over the years

00:47:49 - Real Madrid lose at home to Milan

00:48:56 - Did the Ballon d’or debacle hurt Madrid?

00:53:57 - Lucas Vasquez vs Rafael Leao + lack of balance in attack

00:54:44 - No Endrick or Guler used as subs

00:56:14 - Madrid have a problem with “sacred cows”

00:57:28 - Will Ancelotti be Madrid’s manager next season? + Camavinga must start

01:00:57 - Endrick and Guler lacking minutes

01:02:23 - Will Madrid look to buy Joshua Kimmich?

01:03:35 - Ravi = Neo?



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Episode 40 - Are Liverpool New Title Favorites, Manchester United Got LUCKY vs. Chelsea, and Tottenham vs. Aston Villa Reactions04 Nov 202400:45:29

In this episode, Patrick and Ted break down the games from this past weekend. They start at the top of the table, with Arsenal and Manchester City faltering, leaving Liverpool 2 points in the lead. They discuss whether Liverpool can maintain their lead with a tough upcoming schedule, if City can rebound despite their injuries, and whether Arsenal are already out of the title race. Next, they talk about Manchester United's lucky 1-1 draw with Chelsea and how they managed to escape two possible red cards. Finally, they finish with Tottenham's 4-1 victory over Aston Villa and the difficulty of separating the top 13 teams in the Premier League. Enjoy!


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Timestamps:

00:00 - Intro

00:55 - Arsenal,City, and Liverpool over the weekend

01:23 - How Brighton setup against Liverpool

02:34 - How stressful the Premier League is

03:15 - Liverpool weathered the storm then attacked

04:37 - How long Liverpool’s squad has been in rotation

05:43 - Tough schedule ahead for Liverpool

06:21 - Are liverpool favorites or should it still be city?

07:41 - City have a ton of injuries and an old squad

10:16 - Arsenal’ lack of attacking threat vs. Newcastle

11:47 - A bad game for Arsenal and Arteta

13:00 - Are managers too conservative with substitutions

14:07 - Edu Gaspar leaving Arsenal

16:39 - What is the best approach to substitutions?

20:25 - Is Arteta taking more power at Arsenal?

22:31 - Are Arsenal out of the title race?

24:26 - Phil Foden’s added threat for City

26:16 - Manchester United vs. Chelsea

26:40 - United were lucky to not get red cards (Ugarte/Martinez)

30:00 - Defensive breakdowns leading to chances + Why is Robert Sanchez in goal

31:24 - The game from a United Perspective

32:54 - The game from a Chelsea Perspective + Cole Palmer

34:05 - Concern for Chelsea’s defense?

36:10 - Tottenham vs. Aston Villa

37:21 - How managers give their players breaks during the season

38:30 - Villa were unable to contain the match

39:16 - Spurs are GOOD?

39:24 - Hard to separate teams the top 7 and top 13 teams in the table

42:26 - What makes every week exciting in the Premier League

44:00 - Serie A is also BANANAS


#premierleague #liverpool #manchesterunited #manchestercity #manutd #arsenal #tottenham #chelsea #astonvilla #arteta #colepalmer #philfoden


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Episode 44 - Real Madrid Transfer Rumours: Addressing their defensive needs, signing Florian Wirtz, and taking BOTH Trent-Alexander Arnold and Mo Salah from Liverpool20 Nov 202400:48:22

On this episode, Patrick and Ravi discuss the many transfer rumours surrounding Real Madrid. They start with Centre backs, and look at options for both established players and rising young stars. Next, they look at options for right back. Could they promote a youngster from their academy? The conversation moves to Florian Wirtz, who has been linked to Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, and Manchester City. Finally, they end the podcast by discussing if Madrid can take Trent Alexander-Arnold AND Mo Salah from Liverpool, whether any of these transfers solve their Mbappe problem, and if Vinicius will be sold in the coming years.


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Timestamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:47 - Pressing Concern at Centreback for Real Madrid

02:10 - Madrid’s current options at CB

03:43 - Is there an obvious profile for them?

05:03 - Hard to find solutions in January

05:31 - Tchouaméni at CB?

06:04 - 2 groups of candidates we’re hearing

08:28 - Real Madrid won’t throw away this season + how they should approach it

09:35 - Jonathan Tah from Leverkusen

11:28 - Tah plays for Xabi Alonso, who is rumoured to be at Madrid next season

11:49 - Aymeric Laporte

13:27 - Mario Hermoso

14:38 - The information we don’t have

15:24 - The most likely option out of these 3

16:18 - The younger players Real Madrid could be looking at

16:42 - Vitor Reis from Palmeiras

18:22 - A recruiters perspective of a young prospect

20:19 - Madrid’s Brazilian players could make the move easier for Reis

21:51 - Castello Lukeba from RB Leipzig

25:13 - Murillo from Nottingham Forest

28:04 - Does Madrid’s current squad push you to a more established player?

29:23 - Tah’s Leverkusen defensive partner, Piero Hincapié

31:19 - Options for right back?

31:27 - Could Madrid address this through their academy, or is it a response to Barcelona’s success?

31:52 - Asencio as an option

33:16 - Jesus Fortea

34:02 - Do Madrid need to improve their Academy strategy, or is it inevitable with how they handle transfers?

37:17 - Florian Wirtz linked with Madrid, Bayern and Man City

38:29 - Not a great fit for Madrid

39:11 - Guler linked to Arsenal

42:11 - Wirtz makes more sense for Bayern

42:47 - Could Madrid take Trent Alexander-Arnold AND Mo Salah from Liverpool?

43:44 - Madrid would have to sell Rodrygo

44:37 - None of this solves their Mbappe Problem

46:14 - Could Madrid be forced to sell Vinicius?


#realmadrid #transfernews #mbappe #vinicius #rodrygo #ardagüler #wirtz #laliga #championsleague #madrid


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