Explore every episode of the podcast The Spillover
| Title | Pub. Date | Duration | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Japan’s Heavy Metal PM + Political Threats to Markets + China’s Sad Horse | 12 Feb 2026 | 00:38:21 | |
This episode examines the “Fragile Four” economies—the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, and France—and why politics is increasingly spilling into financial markets. After a long stretch where markets largely shrugged off political volatility, an “age of inflation” coupled with high debt, aging demographics, rising defense spending, and anxious populations across the Fragile Four are making markets more reactive to political shocks. We break down what’s driving the shift and why cracks are appearing now.
Hosts:
Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
Mentioned on the Episode:
“Accidental ‘crying horse’ toy wins hearts in China,” Reuters
“Economic Anxiety Is a Global Problem,” Gallup
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The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy. | |||
| U.S. Supreme Court Rules Against Trump’s Tariffs | 20 Feb 2026 | 00:18:58 | |
In a 6-3 decision, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the government’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), holding that the statute does not authorize a president to impose sweeping tariffs. In this breaking news episode, host Rebecca Patterson is joined by Michael Froman, president of the Council on Foreign Relations and a former U.S. trade representative, to unpack the decision and discuss potential spillovers into financial and labor markets.
Host: Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
Guest: Michael Froman, President, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
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The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy. | |||
| The “European Onion” + China, Brazil, and India Take On MAGA | 18 Feb 2026 | 00:36:47 | |
European leaders are at an inflection point. After high-level meetings in Munich and Brussels, they must decide what role Europe will play in the unfolding new world order, politically and economically. Can China, India, and Brazil provide lessons on how to navigate the U.S. trade war? Can a “multi-speed” Europe with less and simpler regulation become a reality? As the world’s second-largest economy, the EU’s choices will shape global growth—and markets are watching.
Hosts:
Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
Guest:
Edward Fishman, Senior Fellow and Director of the Maurice R. Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR); Author, Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare
Mentioned on the Episode:
Edward Fishman, “Want to stop Trump bullying your country? Retaliate,” The Guardian
“MEPs propose new legal framework for innovative companies,” European Parliament
“How Polymarket Is Turning Bitcoin Volatility Into a Five-Minute Betting Market,” Yahoo Finance
“Why a dart frog poison believed to have killed Alexei Navalny points to the Kremlin,” NBC News
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The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy. | |||
| The AI Bubble + The Productivity Paradox + India’s AI Summit | 26 Feb 2026 | 00:53:46 | |
Is there an AI bubble, or just an OpenAI bubble? Markets remain focused on whether valuations can be justified by sufficiently fast revenue growth, while the real economy braces for AI’s impact on productivity, jobs, and other disruptions. With global leaders and tech CEOs convening in India to debate AI governance, the stakes are rising fast. Credit markets, hiring data, and business sentiment could signal whether this year will bring a continued jobless expansion or something more concerning.
Hosts:
Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
Mentioned on the Episode:
Sebastian Mallaby and Sebastian Elbaum, “The AI Trilemma,” Foreign Affairs
Sebastian Mallaby, The Infinity Machine: Demis Hassabis, DeepMind, and the Quest for Superintelligence
Alap Shah, “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis,” Citrini Research
Matt Shumer, “Something Big Is Happening in AI — and Most People Will Be Blindsided,” Forbes
Martha Gimbel, “An AI Productivity Boom? Don’t Count Your (Productivity Data) Chickens,” Yale Budget Lab
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The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy. | |||
| Iran War Ignites Oil-Shock Stagflation Fears + Who Really Controls the Energy Market? | 04 Mar 2026 | 00:43:59 | |
U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran are disrupting energy markets. Iran’s production capacity has been hit, the Strait of Hormuz has essentially been closed, and Iran’s energy-producing neighbors have been dragged into the conflict. This episode looks at the spillovers from the resulting energy price shock and explores how structural shifts, including a surge in U.S. oil production, China’s emergence as a dominant buyer, and the growth of renewables have reshaped oil’s geopolitical and economic role.
Hosts:
Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
Guest:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research, J.P. Morgan
Mentioned on the Episode:
“Outlook for Energy Demand,” International Energy Agency (IEA)
Ignacio Presno and Andrea Prestipino, “Oil Price Shocks and Inflation in a DSGE Model of the Global Economy,” Federal Reserve
John Kehoe, “Iran War Oil Inflation is a Nightmare for RBA,” Financial Review
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The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy. | |||
| Adam Smith’s “The Wealth of Nations” Turns 250 + Free Markets Face Off Against Industrial Policy | 11 Mar 2026 | 00:49:23 | |
On the 250th anniversary of Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations, this episode revisits a book that laid the foundations of modern economics and then considers the tensions between free markets and industrial policy today. It highlights the ways in which specialization and global trade remain powerful drivers of prosperity, reflecting Smith’s insight that self-interest can benefit society when shaped by competition and institutions, while noting the ongoing relevance of his warnings about moral judgment, the rule of law, and resistance to cronyism.
Hosts:
Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
Mentioned on the Episode:
“Adam Smith is Misinterpreted and His Influence Overstated,” Economist
Gita Gopinath, “Geopolitics and its Impact on Global Trade and the Dollar,” International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Caitlin Oprysko, “Trump’s Return Supercharges Lobbying Revenues,” Politico
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The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy. | |||
| Introducing The Spillover | 17 Mar 2026 | 00:01:32 | |
How do critical international developments shape economic and financial markets worldwide? Each week, The Spillover examines the ripple effects of global events across policy, geopolitics, economics, technology, and finance. This podcast helps you better understand what’s happening, and why it matters to businesses, the markets, and the world.
Hosts:
Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) | |||
| U.S.-China AI Race Escalates + Chip Bans Aren’t Working + A Lesson From Nuclear Proliferation | 25 Mar 2026 | 00:58:21 | |
This episode unpacks the evolving U.S.-China AI rivalry, the limits of technological export controls, and what’s really at stake as both countries race to shape the future of intelligence.
Submit Your Question For a Chance to Win a Copy of Sebastian Mallaby’s Book The Infinity Machine!
Host:
Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
Guest:
Chris McGuire, Senior Fellow for China and Emerging Technologies, CFR
We discuss:
Mentioned on the Episode:
Sebastian Mallaby, The Infinity Machine: Demis Hassabis, DeepMind, and the Quest for Superintelligence, Penguin Random House
Chris McGuire, “The New AI Chip Export Policy to China: Strategically Incoherent and Unenforceable,” CFR.org
Chris McGuire, “Trump’s Reversal on AI Chips is a Historic Blunder,” The Washington Post
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The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy. | |||
| Iran War Spirals + Oil Shocks Keep Coming + China’s Advantage | 18 Mar 2026 | 00:54:37 | |
As the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran escalates, global markets are absorbing the shocks: oil prices are swinging, inflation expectations are rising, and safe-haven assumptions are being tested. China, by contrast, is looking relatively resilient, buoyed by strategic energy reserves, diversified supply chains, and policy flexibility. This episode examines how the conflict is driving inflation, complicating monetary policy, and handing China a geoeconomic edge.
Submit Your Question For a Chance to Win a Copy of Sebastian Mallaby’s Book The Infinity Machine!
Hosts:
Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
Mentioned on the Episode:
Sebastian Mallaby, The Infinity Machine: Demis Hassabis, DeepMind, and the Quest for Superintelligence, Penguin Random House
Coco Feng, “China Issues New Safety Rules for OpenClaw. Here Are the Dos and Don’ts” South China Morning Post
Hany Abdel-Latif and Adina Popescu, “Spillovers From Large Emerging Economies: How Dominant Is China?,” International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Michael Langemeier and Joana Colussi, “Farmer Sentiment Drops Sharply at the Start of 2026 as Economic Concerns Increase,” Purdue University/CME Group
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The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy. | |||
| The Oppenheimer of AI + Mailbag Contest Winners | 07 Apr 2026 | 00:42:35 | |
This episode unpacks cohost Sebastian Mallaby’s new book The Infinity Machine and answers audience questions on AI, dollar dominance, the impact of Trump’s foreign policy on midterm elections, and more.
Hosts:
Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
We discuss:
Mentioned on the Episode:
Sebastian Mallaby, The Infinity Machine: Demis Hassabis, DeepMind, and the Quest for Superintelligence, Penguin Random House
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The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy. | |||
| Private Credit's Black Box + Why It's Not 2008 (But Still Risky) | 31 Mar 2026 | 00:38:53 | |
This episode dives into how the opaque growth and structural risks in private credit, combined with global supply shocks and market stress spurred by the Iran war, are creating a uniquely fragile and unpredictable economic landscape.
Hosts:
Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
We discuss:
Mentioned on the Episode:
Sebastian Mallaby, The Infinity Machine: Demis Hassabis, DeepMind, and the Quest for Superintelligence, Penguin Random House
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The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy. | |||
| The Hormuz Shock + Why the Fed is “On Hold” | 16 Apr 2026 | 00:29:47 | |
Live from Washington, DC, this episode unpacks how war, AI, financial innovation, and global institutions are reshaping monetary policy, market stability, and the future of the international economic order.
Host:
Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations
Guest:
William C. Dudley, Chair, Bretton Woods Committee; Former President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
We discuss:
Mentioned on the Episode:
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, “War Darkens Global Economic Outlook and Reshapes Policy Priorities,” International Monetary Fund (IMF)
“Chair Powell’s Press Conference”
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The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy. | |||
| Are Prediction Markets Forecasting Tools or Virtual Casinos? | 05 May 2026 | 00:46:08 | |
Prediction markets have grown into a multibillion-dollar industry. This episode asks whether they are powerful forecasting tools or gambling platforms in disguise—and what their rise means for how risk and information are priced.
Hosts:
Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
Guest:
Christy Goldsmith Romero, Former Commissioner, Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)
We discuss:
Mentioned on the Episode:
Anthony M. Diercks, Jared Dean Katz, and Jonathan H. Wright, “Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets,” Federal Reserve Board
“The Future of Financial Services Regulation: A Conversation with CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero,” Brookings Institution
Adam Hoffer and Jacob Macumber-Rosin, “Expanded Sports Betting Legalization Would Generate Billions in Tax Revenue,” Tax Foundation
Andy Serwer, “Charles Schwab CEO Explains Why Investing Works—and Gambling Doesn’t,” Barron's
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The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy. | |||
| K-Shaped Economies + Affordability Crisis + Trump vs. Mamdani Populism | 28 Apr 2026 | 00:51:20 | |
This episode unpacks the concept of a K-shaped economy, examines how AI, war, and climate shocks may be widening inequality within and between countries, and explains why the divide is so hard to measure. It also explores competing responses to the affordability crisis—from Trump’s to Mamdani’s—and asks if a more centrist path could offer better solutions.
Hosts:
Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
We discuss:
Mentioned on the Episode:
“America’s Affordability Crisis Is (Mostly) a Mirage,” The Economist
“Going Bananas Over Affordability,” Inside Economics
“Compare Wealth Components Across Groups,” The Federal Reserve
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The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy. | |||
| Is the Gulf Still the Capital of Capital? + How War Could Hurt America’s Tech Funding | 22 Apr 2026 | 00:43:05 | |
This episode explores how the Gulf region transformed into a global “capital of capital,” and the risk of the Iran conflict disrupting that role. It examines the ripple effects on global markets, U.S. tech and AI investment, and the broader balance of economic power if Gulf capital starts turning inward to focus on defense.
Hosts:
Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, CFR
Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, CFR
We discuss:
Mentioned on the Episode:
“How the US grows from PIF’s pioneering investments,” Newswire
“Sovereign Wealth Funds and Public Pension Funds Tracker,” Global SWF
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The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy. | |||
| Data Centers In Space? + Planet Labs CEO Talks ‘Large Earth Models’ | 19 May 2026 | 00:56:48 | |
AI and satellite imagery are quickly converging to create “planetary intelligence,” a new generation of systems capable of capturing and analyzing images of Earth in real time. This episode explores how the AI infrastructure race could move into orbit, with space-based data centers, falling launch costs, and “large Earth models” potentially transforming the global economy, geopolitics, and the future of artificial intelligence itself.
Host:
Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
Guest:
Will Marshall, CEO and Cofounder, Planet Labs
We discuss:
Mentioned on the Episode:
“Planet Successfully Runs AI in Space,” Planet
“Thales Alenia Space Reveals Results of ASCEND Feasibility Study On Space Data Centers,” Thales Alenia Space
“Is AI Putting Graduates Out of Work Already?,” The Economist
Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy. | |||
| Trump-Xi + Mutually Assured Disruption + Boeing, Beef, and Beans | 12 May 2026 | 00:53:05 | |
President Donald Trump is set to meet with Xi Jinping in Beijing for a high-stakes summit shaped by Iran war tensions, trade disputes, critical mineral flows, semiconductor controls, and an intensifying AI race. This episode breaks down the growing U.S.-China rivalry, the risks facing global markets and supply chains, and whether the world is entering a new era of economic fragmentation and technological competition.
Hosts:
Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
We discuss:
Mentioned on the Episode:
“At the Trump-Xi Summit, China Will Have the Upper Hand,” CFR.org
Chris McGuire, “How Trump Should Approach AI Talks With China: Targeted Dialogue, Maximum Pressure,” CFR.org
“Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI),” Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Ryan Mancini, “Trump’s Approval on Economy Hits New Low; 7 in 10 Expect Recession Next Year: Poll,” The Hill
Xinyi Wu, “China, Indonesia Launch Cross-Border QR Payments – A Boost for the Global Yuan?,” South China Morning Post
Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy. | |||