Lowy Institute Conversations – Details, episodes & analysis

With less than a month to go before one of the most consequential presidential elections in US history, Lowy Institute experts Lydia Khalil, Hervé Lemahieu and Sam Roggeveen sit down to discuss what a potential Trump or Harris administration would mean for the United States and its relationships with allies and adversaries. Drawing on two recently published Lowy Institute interactive features in which Institute experts assess the policies, outlooks and approach to the world of the candidates, they unpack what two very different yet similarly enigmatic candidates would bring to the world stage. You can read more here.

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Each year, the Lowy Institute’s Asia Power Index (API) provides the authoritative guide to the distribution of power in Asia. In the first of a three part series on the API, index authors Susannah Patton, Jack Sato and Hervé Lemahieu discuss the findings of the latest edition, including the outlook for US-China competition, the relative influence of India and Japan, and how other regional countries fare overall. 

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The Lowy Institute’s Sam Roggeveen spoke with Sweden’s defence minister, Pål Jonson, during his recent visit to Australia. Prior to his ministerial career, Jonson worked in Sweden’s Defence Research Agency, and his depth of knowledge about not just European security but also Asia comes through in this interview. Roggeveen asks Jonson why Swedes should care about Asia, whether Europe is doing enough to help Ukraine, and why Sweden chose to join NATO now.

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Tensions between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea have reached their highest level in more than a decade. The risk of escalation, even conflict, between the two countries could test the credibility of the Philippines’ alliance with the United States.

In the first of a series focused on the South China Sea tensions, Susannah Patton, Director of the Southeast Asia Program at the Lowy Institute, discusses the Philippines’ strategy with Jonathan Malaya, Assistant Director-General of the National Security Council of the Philippines and the spokesperson for the West Philippine Sea Taskforce, the key body that coordinates Philippine agencies’ policy on the South China Sea.

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Since the Albanese government was elected, Australia has focused on stabilising relations with China. But there are limits to Australia’s ability to successfully pursue stabilisation if there remains a spectre of confrontation between its largest trading partner and its key security guarantor, the United States.  Do either the US or China genuinely want to stabilise bi-lateral ties? And if they do, what is standing in the way? One reason is Taiwan, and Beijing’s campaign of encirclement of the island, a slow-motion strategy which, while it does not attract the same headlines as a possible invasion, can nevertheless achieve the same ends.  Richard McGregor, Senior Fellow for East Asia at the Lowy Institute, discusses US-China competition, Taiwan, and more with Washington-based China scholars, Jude Blanchette and Dan Blumenthal.

Jude Blanchette is the Freeman Chair in China Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Dan Blumenthal is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute who served as the senior director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia at the Pentagon in the George W. Bush administration.

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In this episode, Michel Barnier, Europe’s former point man on Brexit negotiations, speaks with Hervé Lemahieu. Four years on, what lessons should the West draw from Brexit? How united is Europe in the face of populism at home and with new challenges on its doorstep, including the war in Ukraine? And are China and Russia two faces of the same threat?

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In this episode, the Lowy Institute’s Research Director Hervé Lemahieu talks with Ryan Neelam, the Institute’s Director of the Public Opinion and Foreign Policy Program about the findings of the recently launched 2024 Global Diplomacy Index. What do diplomatic networks tell us about superpower rivalry, geopolitical competition, and a more multipolar world order? How do nations use diplomacy to build influence, and where are they targeting their investments? What does Australia’s relative underinvestment in diplomacy mean for its ability to advance its interests? In a broad-ranging discussion, Hervé and Ryan explore the often overlooked role of diplomacy in shaping the modern world.

2024 Global Diplomacy Index: https://globaldiplomacyindex.lowyinstitute.org/

2024 Global Diplomacy Index – Key Findings Report: https://globaldiplomacyindex.lowyinstitute.org/key_findings

America, take heed — China is winning the diplomacy race:  Financial Times opinion piece by Ryan Neelam: https://www.ft.com/content/2a63a19b-1fed-4c1a-9f75-e09f5708a8c6

Australia’s ‘diplomatic deficit’ harms our global presence: Canberra Times opinion piece by Ryan Neelam and Hervé Lemahieu: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/australia-s-diplomatic-deficit-harms-our-global-presence

Five surprises from Lowy’s Global Diplomacy Index: Lowy Institute Interpreter article by Jack Sato:https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/five-surprises-lowy-s-global-diplomacy-index

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In this episode, the Lowy Institute’s Sam Roggeveen talks with his colleague, Research Fellow on Transnational Challenges Lydia Khalil, about her new research paper, Overcoming digital threats to democracy. The internet and social media are now our digital public square, yet these spaces are not governed that way. Lydia proposes that tech giants look to “deliberative democracy” practices — where small but representative groups of people make decisions after deliberating on issues in depth — to address issues of fairness and legitimacy in internet governance.

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In this special episode of Lowy Institute Conversations, Director of Research Hervé Lemahieu talks with three experts about the outcome of Indonesia's presidential election on 14 February 2024. Quick counts point to a landslide victory for Prabowo Subianto. What drove this result? Who is the 72-year-old Prabowo? And what kind of Indonesia can we expect under his presidency? Listen to the discussion with Professor Dewi Fortuna Anwar, Nonresident Fellow at the Lowy Institute, Dr Fakhridho (Ridho) Susrahadiansyah Bagus Pratama Susilo, Senior Analyst at Bower Group Asia, and Dr Abdul Rahman Yaacob, Research Fellow in the Southeast Asia Program at the Lowy Institute.

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During a brief visit to Sydney, Major General (Ret'd) Tamir Hayman, Managing Director of the Institute for National Security Studies in Israel, offered the Lowy Institute’s Sam Roggeveen his unique insights on where momentum now lies in the Ukraine war, whether Iran will pursue a nuclear weapon or stop just short of building one, and the role of secret intelligence in an age of ‘information super-abundance’.

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