Global Trade Deciphered – Details, episodes & analysis

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In October 2025, the International Maritime Organization's (IMO’s) Net-Zero Framework—designed to introduce carbon levies on high-emission fuels and raise up to $10 billion annually for developing nations—was delayed by a 57-49 vote until October 2026.

This episode examines:

• The U.S. role in blocking the measures and reported use of diplomatic leverage

• Saudi Arabia’s contrasting approach with economic incentives

• China’s $18 billion investment in alternative-fuel shipyards and its vote alongside the U.S.

• The current state of green-fuel technologies: LNG leakage risks, hydrogen supply challenges, ammonia toxicity, and early-stage nuclear options

• Indirect military dimensions: low-emission propulsion for naval stealth and endurance, e.g. the US Virginia class (SSN-774 class) nuclear submarine 

• The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and its potential ripple effects on high-carbon supply chains

• A parallel from France’s delayed Crit’Air vehicle-emission scheme

The episode also includes clips of an an interview discussion between me and shipping expert Simon Ward, in May 2025, which somewhat predicted US IMO involvement and the result, some 6 months before it happened!

Keywords: US China trade, shipping standoff, IMO blocked, levy blocked 2025, US China shipping, IMO $10B, green levy blocked, carbon tax shipping

I’ll deliver the closing address at ENSM’s conference “When Geopolitics Intrudes on Global Maritime Trade” on 20 November in Le Havre. Join in person or online—details below.

ENSM Conference – 20 November, Le Havre

Register: https://lnkd.in/e8tueJZX

Contact: international@supmaritime.fr

Sources:

• UNCTAD – 80% of trade by sea

• IMO MEPC 82 – vote details

• Reuters – U.S. diplomatic tactics

• The New York Times – strong-arm reports

• Climate Change News – Saudi incentives

• Yale Climate Connections – cost projections

• U.S. Navy – Virginia-class

• BBC – AUKUS deal

• Global Times (20 Oct 2025) – CSSC statement

• China Briefing – retrofit investments

• Truth Social – Trump quote

• Connexion France – Crit’Air

• European Commission – CBAM

Email: globaltradedeciphered@gmail.com

X: @justinhaydenm

 #GlobalTrade #Maritime #Geopolitics #GreenShipping #ENSM

A Privileged Discussions Production

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*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.

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Episode 14: AI Tsunami - Global Trade Boom or Bust?

AI's Impact on International Trade: Boom or Deglobalization?

Host Justin Hayden Miller, global trade lawyer at a top European law firm, analyzes AI's dual impact on global trade. Will it boost efficiency and growth, or drive localization and self-sufficiency? Insights from historical AI milestones, 2025 trade forecasts, and quantum computing trends for European policymakers.

Tailored for senior executives, policymakers, trade professionals and those interested in geopolitics. 

Keywords: AI impact, international trade 2025, globalization deglobalization, AI supply chain optimization, 3D printing robotics, onshoring reshoring, WTO AI projections, Deloitte Tech Trends 2025, UNCTAD trade uncertainties, how AI affects global supply chains, quantum computing trade.

Meta Description: Explore AI's impact on global trade in 2025. Boom or bust? Insights for executives on globalization, 3D printing & more. 

Episode Highlights:

• AI Boosting Trade: Optimizes logistics, predictive chains, tokenized docs, and customs. UNCTAD: Trade uncertainties cost developing countries billions—AI mitigates risks.
• AI Driving Localization: Accelerates robotics and 3D printing, eroding offshoring. Bamboo Lab's PrintMon Maker enables text-to-3D; market to hit $88B by 2030.
• Adoption Speed: Deep Blue (1997) vs. ChatGPT (100M users in months); beats 50-year video tech lag.
• Key Projections: WTO: 34-37% trade rise by 2040 with AI. Deloitte Tech Trends 2025: AI fuels efficiency.
• Risks & Outlook: Data wars, regulatory Luddism, quantum computing acceleration.

Timestamps:

• Intro: AI's Trade Tsunami
• History: Kasparov vs. Deep Blue
• AI Trade Enhancements: Logistics & UNCTAD
• Tech Adoption: Video Calls to AI
• WTO/Deloitte Projections
• Localization: Robotics & 3D Printing 
• Policies: Tariffs & Onshoring
• Risks: Data, Regulations, Parallels
• Conclusions

Resources:

• WTO World Trade Report 2025: AI to boost trade 34-37% by 2040. https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news25_e/wtr_15sep25_e.htm
• Deloitte Tech Trends 2025: AI in business transformation. https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/technology-management/tech-trends.html
• UNCTAD: Uncertainty as the new tariff, costing developing economies. https://unctad.org/news/uncertainty-new-tariff-costing-global-trade-and-hurting-developing-economies
• 3D Printing Market: $88.2B by 2030. https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/3d-printing-industry-analysis
• Bamboo Lab PrintMon Maker: AI 3D model generator, Oct 2024. https://www.allaboutbambu.com/2024/10/18/printmon-maker-is-now-globally-available/

If you like the podcast, please subscribe so you don't miss any episodes and leave a rating. Also tell friends and colleagues about it so the podcast can grow.

*Follow Justin on X: @JustinHaydenM  

or contact us by email at GlobalTradeDeciphered@gmail.com  

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*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.

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Privileged Discussions is now Global Trade Deciphered, a sharper reflection of our focus on global trade and business. Same expert insights, new name. Global Trade Deciphered is a Privileged Discussions Productions podcast. Thanks for joining us!

Episode Description

Justin Hayden Miller (Global Trade & Customs lawyer) invites Simon Ward (shipping expert, broker and Professor of Shipping).  They discuss global shipping and whether Chinese shipping represents a risk to the United States and world trade, as well as issues such as the Panama Canal.

In particular, the episode addresses:

-  Why shipping is important.

-  How the shipping industry operates.

-  The decline of British and US shipbuilding. Port of Liverpool, LFC, The Titanic, White Star Line; liner trades

-  Present shipbuilding. China, South Korea and Japan

-  Whether the Chinese practice unfair competition in shipbuilding against the United States

-  The US' potential to industrialize using shipbuilding; Japanese shipbuilding, demographic pressures

-  Global Shipping Disruptions. Disruption created by Covid; Putin; Ukraine; Suez Canal closure because of Houthi rebels and the Panama Canal: the effects

-  Chinese shipping dominance and influence

-  The Panama Canal Its significance; global shipping routes

-  TBaltimore and the Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse; US infrastructure concerns, and re the Panama Canal

-  Globalisation and protectionism

-  Suez Crisis 1956

-  Shipping and inflation, container pricing

-  Tariffs and the consequences for the shipping industry 

-  Predictions concerning China; Taiwan; demographic considerations

Artistic references: Titanic (1997 film) Directed by James Cameron and starring Leonardo DiCaprio & Kate Winslet. Paramount Pictures, 20th Century Fox

CONTACT DETAILS:

Justin Hayden Miller’s contact details:

Twitter: @JustinHaydenM

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/justin-hayden-miller-7b2a695/

Email: PrivilegedDiscussions@gmail.com

Simon Ward’s contact information:

- Blog : https://ursashipbrokers.gr/

- LinkedIn profile: https://www.linkedin.com/in/simon-ward-ursa/

- email: smw@ursa.gr

If you like the podcast, please subscribe so you don't miss any episodes and leave a rating. Also tell friends and colleagues about it so the podcast can grow.

*Follow Justin on X: @JustinHaydenM  

or contact us by email at GlobalTradeDeciphered@gmail.com  

Sign up to our newsletter. (We won't spam you and will remove your email on your request.) https://substack.com/@globaltradedeciphered

*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.

Send us Fan Mail

Privileged Discussions is now Global Trade Deciphered, a sharper reflection of our focus on global trade and business. Same expert insights, new name. 

Episode Description

In this episode, Justin Hayden Miller, a Global Trade & Customs lawyer and consultant, using clips of Margaret Thatcher, analyses latest developments of President Trump’s trade and tariff policies.

The episode concludes considering:

• Risks of Rule-Changing: Analyzing the potential consequences of the U.S. reshaping global trade rules, which could inadvertently advantage competitors like China.
• Comparisons with Darwinism: The theory of Survival of the Fittest, with modern day approaches to trade, drawing parallels with current events.

It considers:

• U.S. Tariff Policies: 2025 U.S. Trade Policy. Exploring President Trump's perspective on tariffs as a tool for economic dominance, with references to a pre-World War II "golden age" of U.S. trade funded by tariffs rather than income tax.
• Margaret Thatcher’s Legacy: Featuring archival clips of Thatcher defending her economic policies, Justin draws connections between her views on wealth creation and modern trade strategies.
• Soft Power vs. Hard Power: A discussion on the shift from diplomatic influence to economic coercion, with references to Joseph Nye’s concept of soft power and its relevance to U.S. global positioning.
• Economic Ideology: Debating the merits of free trade versus protectionism, with references to Adam Smith and the ideological underpinnings of current U.S. trade strategies.

Thatcher clips © : By permission: UK Parliamentary Recording Unit, All rights reserved

Global Trade Deciphered is a Privileged Discussions Productions podcast. Thanks for listening!

If you like the podcast, please subscribe so you don't miss any episodes and leave a rating. Also tell friends and colleagues about it so the podcast can grow.

*Follow Justin on X: @JustinHaydenM  

or contact us by email at GlobalTradeDeciphered@gmail.com  

Sign up to our newsletter. (We won't spam you and will remove your email on your request.) https://substack.com/@globaltradedeciphered

*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.

Send us Fan Mail

Privileged Discussions is now Global Trade Deciphered, a sharper reflection of our focus on global trade and business. Same expert insights, new name. Global Trade Deciphered is a Privileged Discussions Productions podcast. Thanks for joining us!

Episode Description

Justin Hayden Miller, a global trade lawyer, explores Donald Trump’s tariff policies from their historical roots in mercantilism and protectionism, their modern implications, and how these relate to Trump’s trade agenda.

Key Topics Discussed

• Tariffs Explained and Trump’s Tariff Plans: Taxes on imported goods that affect prices and economies. Trump's intended tariff policy.
• Mercantilism History:
  • Spain: Bullionism 
  • France: The Great Colbert. Tariff protections for industries and boosted manufacturing.
  • England: Splendid Isolation and trade independence.
  • Germany: Friedrich List’s tariff approach for emerging industries.
• Mercantilism vs. Protectionism:
  • The differences between the two.
• Trump’s Strategy: Mercantilism (trade surpluses), Protectionism (US industry support) and Colbert-like industrialization efforts.
• Historical Impact: British mercantilism, the Boston Tea Party and American independence.

Call to Action

• Subscribe: Listen to Episode 4 on Free Trade and Trump’s tariffs.
• Rate: Help others find the podcast with a quick rating.

Legal Disclaimer

This podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal or financial advice. Views are those of Justin Hayden Miller and not that of any law firm or third party.

About the Host

Justin Hayden Miller, a French advocate and partner at a top European law firm, specializes in global trade, customs, and VAT with over 25 years of experience.

Tune in for Episode 4 to explore the free trade angle.

If you like the podcast, please subscribe so you don't miss any episodes and leave a rating. Also tell friends and colleagues about it so the podcast can grow.

*Follow Justin on X: @JustinHaydenM  

or contact us by email at GlobalTradeDeciphered@gmail.com  

Sign up to our newsletter. (We won't spam you and will remove your email on your request.) https://substack.com/@globaltradedeciphered

*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.

Send us Fan Mail

Privileged Discussions is now Global Trade Deciphered, a sharper reflection of our focus on global trade and business. Same expert insights, new name. Global Trade Deciphered is a Privileged Discussions Productions podcast. Thanks for joining us!

Episode Description

In this episode, I interview CHRIS TAILBY CBE, former Head of Tax Policy at UK Customs and Head of Anti Tax Avoidance at the UK Tax Authorities (HMRC).

Tax which is due is a cost for any business and Tax Avoidance is an area of the law that we should all be aware and wary of.

Key Topics Discussed:

• Chris Tailby’s Career Journey: From barrister to tax partner at PricewaterhouseCoopers, to Director of Tax Practice and head of the UK Anti-Avoidance Group.
• Tax Avoidance vs. Evasion: Exploring the legal and ethical boundaries, with insights into landmark cases.
• Duke of Westminster Case: How this precedent shaped tax planning by prioritizing the letter of the law.
• Halifax Case: A pivotal European Court decision that redefined VAT planning and tackled abusive tax practices.
• The IRS & JITSIC & Gordon Brown: Chris’s role in signing the treaty establishing the Joint International Tax Shelter Information Centre.
• Jaffa Cake Case: The quirky legal battle over whether Jaffa Cakes are cakes or biscuits, impacting VAT liability.
• Management Style: Chris’s hands-off approach and emphasis on empowering teams.
• What is required to fight tax avoidance : Analytical skills, attention to detail, and cross-sector expertise as key to a successful legal career.

Do subscribe to the podcast so that you don’t miss future episodes.

If you like the podcast, please subscribe so you don't miss any episodes and leave a rating. Also tell friends and colleagues about it so the podcast can grow.

*Follow Justin on X: @JustinHaydenM  

or contact us by email at GlobalTradeDeciphered@gmail.com  

Sign up to our newsletter. (We won't spam you and will remove your email on your request.) https://substack.com/@globaltradedeciphered

*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.

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Episode Description

This episode introduces the concept of the series.

Do subscribe to the podcast so that you don’t miss future episodes.

Global Trade Deciphered is a Privileged Discussions Productions podcast. Thanks for joining us!

If you like the podcast, please subscribe so you don't miss any episodes and leave a rating. Also tell friends and colleagues about it so the podcast can grow.

*Follow Justin on X: @JustinHaydenM  

or contact us by email at GlobalTradeDeciphered@gmail.com  

Sign up to our newsletter. (We won't spam you and will remove your email on your request.) https://substack.com/@globaltradedeciphered

*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.

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Strap in for an exclusive test drive of BMW's game-changing iX5 Hydrogen prototype—hitting roads in 2028! Join host and test driver Justin Hayden Miller at BMW's iconic Munich FIZ Center - with BMW hydrogen Lead and Hydrogen Council founder, Dr. Jürgen Guldner, riding in the passenger seat. 

Feel the instant torque, whisper-quiet EV ride, and zero-emission fuel cell speed: with sub-6-sec acceleration. Blending battery perks with gas-station ease, it's the future of sustainable mobility. Must-hear sequel to our previous hydrogen trade episode!

Key Highlights:

• Thrilling Test Drive: Feel the raw power—125kW fuel cell + 170kW battery boost for highway dominance and sports-mode adrenaline. Justin calls it "driving in the future"!
• Behind-the-Scenes: Live from Munich's innovation hub with 20,000+ experts, plus a nod to the BMW i3's EV legacy.
• Tech Deep Dive: Dr. Guldner explains fuel cell magic: Hydrogen + oxygen = electricity + pure water exhaust. Learn about regenerative braking, 6kg hydrogen tanks, and 3-4 minute refuels.
• BMW-Toyota Partnership: Over 10 years of collaboration culminates in this prototype, with series production hitting roads in 2028 as a complement to battery EVs.
• Sustainability Edge: Why hydrogen beats batteries for long-haul drivers—no home charging needed, just gas-station convenience with zero emissions.

Guest: Dr. Jürgen Guldner, Head of BMW Hydrogen Projects, Vehicle Dynamics Pioneer, founding member of the Hydrogen Council and Global Hydrogen Advocate.

Why Listen? Echoing Top Gear's iconic test drives, discover how hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are revolutionizing mobility, decarbonizing transport, and challenging Tesla-style EVs. Ideal for auto enthusiasts, green tech fans, and global trade pros eyeing Europe's energy transition.

Call to Action: Subscribe now for more episodes decoding global trade trends! Rate and review on Buzzsprout, Apple Podcasts, or Spotify. Follow @JustinHaydenM on X for updates. Missed the main episode? Check "Driving the Future: Europe's Hydrogen Mobility Revolution" first!

#HydrogenCars #BMWHydrogen #FuelCellTech #ElectricVehicles @BMW #SustainableTransport #AutoInnovation #TopGear

If you like the podcast, please subscribe so you don't miss any episodes and leave a rating. Also tell friends and colleagues about it so the podcast can grow.

*Follow Justin on X: @JustinHaydenM  

or contact us by email at GlobalTradeDeciphered@gmail.com  

Sign up to our newsletter. (We won't spam you and will remove your email on your request.) https://substack.com/@globaltradedeciphered

*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.

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Recorded live at BMW’s Cutting-Edge Innovation FIZ Center in Munich. Join global trade lawyer Justin Hayden Miller in conversation with Dr. Jürgen Guldner, having headed BMW's Dynamic Development he is Head of Hydrogen Projects at BMW Group, being a founding member of the Hydrogen Council. Elon Musk’s call for automotive disruption sparks debate as Europe navigates energy transition and global trade shifts. Could hydrogen technology be a game-changer?

• Elon Musk’s views on automotive disruption 
• H2-ICE vs. fuel cell vehicles: Hydrogen powertrain options
• BMW-Toyota collaboration: Decade-long partnership
• Hydrogen as an energy carrier: Imports, storage, grid support
• Battery electric vehicles vs. hydrogen: User needs and applications
• Hydrogen infrastructure in Europe: Current state and future networks
• Supply chain for hydrogen technology: Europe’s capabilities
• Trade policy and hydrogen: Regulatory frameworks
• Global hydrogen race: China, Japan, Korea developments
• BMW hydrogen 2028: Pilot fleet and production plans

The episode includes key topics for trade professionals, policymakers, and industry leaders concerning hydrogen’s potential in Europe’s energy and trade landscape. Essential for shaping hydrogen energy policy, trade strategy, or corporate sustainability. 

Share with your network to ignite discussions on Europe’s green trade future.

Don’t miss the next bonus episode: Justin test-drives BMW’s hydrogen prototype, launching in 2028.  Subscribe to the podcast for more global trade trends and analysis, and connect via X @JustinHaydenM or contact us by email on  globaltradedeciphered@gmail.com.

If you like the podcast, please subscribe so you don't miss any episodes and leave a rating. Also tell friends and colleagues about it so the podcast can grow.

*Follow Justin on X: @JustinHaydenM  

or contact us by email at GlobalTradeDeciphered@gmail.com  

Sign up to our newsletter. (We won't spam you and will remove your email on your request.) https://substack.com/@globaltradedeciphered

*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.

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We've rebranded to "Global Trade Deciphered" to better reflect our sharper focus on global trade and business and to make the podcast more accessible and discoverable online. 

While the name has changed, our commitment to bringing you insightful analysis and expert perspectives on global trade remains the same.

For full details, and more, listen to the episode.

Trade Policy 2025

Please share the podcast with friends and colleagues who might find it valuable. Contact me with episode ideas or feedback at GlobalTradeDeciphered@gmail.com or follow me on X @justinhaydenm.

If you like the podcast, please subscribe so you don't miss any episodes and leave a rating. Also tell friends and colleagues about it so the podcast can grow.

*Follow Justin on X: @JustinHaydenM  

or contact us by email at GlobalTradeDeciphered@gmail.com  

Sign up to our newsletter. (We won't spam you and will remove your email on your request.) https://substack.com/@globaltradedeciphered

*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.