Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific? – Détails, épisodes et analyse

Former Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull joins Jim and Ray to give his pointed views on what he believes would be a high-risk second Donald Trump Administration on the Indo-Pacific against the relative continuity represented by Vice President Kamala Harris. Citing Trump's narcissism and erratic behavior, Turnbull asserts that the former president's return would unsettle U.S. alliance relationships across the region.

Turning to how foreign leaders can prepare for a possible "Trump 2", Turnbull emphasizes the need to forge a direct relationship with him, as traditional methods of working through senior officials and advisors have limited influence on his decisions. He shares his own experience of dealing with Trump while he was prime minister, such as persuading him not to impose steel tariffs on Australia.

Turnbull also details his objections to the Australia-UK-US (AUKUS) submarine deal. He criticizes the decision to abandon Australia's partnership with France to build diesel-electric submarines and instead opt for nuclear-powered submarines with America and Great Britain. Turnbull argues that this decision undermines Australian sovereignty and poses unacceptable risks due to the potential that limited supplies of U.S. submarines may well result in their being unavailable to meet Australia's needs.

He also discusses how Australia has dealt with China's influence and espionage operations, and specifically why his government was among the world's first to refuse to allow Huawei to build 5G networks in the country.

Ray and Jim discuss the recent tense and sometimes violent maritime confrontations between China and the Philippines with expert Greg Poling, author of "On Dangerous Ground: America's Century in the South China Sea". They consider what these developments mean for America's long-standing alliance commitment to the Philippines, which Greg asserts is finally being treated like a "real ally" on equivalent footing with more developed countries like Japan.

Greg explores the origins of China's vast claims to the South China Sea--including the origins of the so-called "nine-dash line"--and then works through progression of its gray zone campaign from Scarborough Shoal to Second Thomas Shoal to its latest flashpoint at Sabina Shoal.

The conversation turns to the impact of President Rodrigo Duterte's administration (2016-2022), which turned away from the U.S. alliance and leaned hard into its relationship with Beijing.

They also discuss ASEAN's fragmentation over the South China Sea issue and what it means for a future Code of Conduct.

To close, Ray tells the story of his experience in Vietnam when large protests broke out in 2014 over a Chinese oil rig operating in the Gulf of Tonkin.

Retired Ambassador Bob Blackwill and Richard Fontaine talk to Jim and Ray about how America failed to complete its "pivot to Asia" during the past decade and across successive administrations. The authors of the recent bestseller, 'The Lost Decade: The US Pivot to Asia and the Rise of Chinese Power', argue that America's much-celebrated geostrategic rebalance has never fully materialized, resulting in a weaker US position in the face of a rapid rise in Chinese power and aggression. They emphasize the increasing importance of the Indo-Pacific, the area of greatest geopolitical competition and compounding threats to the global order. They call for a belated but properly executed pivot that includes economic, military and diplomatic components. The conversation also touches on the challenges of getting the American people and political class behind a pivot to Asia, the need for increased defense spending and the importance of deterrence in dealing with China.

Former Japanese Ambassador to Australia Shingo Yamagami discusses the rise of China's "wolf-warrior" diplomacy, including what motivates their aggressive approach to their diplomatic roles. He explains how China's growing economic and military power has led to a shift in their approach to international relations, with a focus on regaining national prestige at the expense of China's neighbors. Ambassador Yamagami emphasizes the need for countries to speak out against these aggressive tactics and not acquiesce to their demands. He also discusses the importance of the AUKUS and the Quad, Japan's recent rapprochement with South Korea, and the important role of Japan's new national security policy in countering China's influence.

In this week's edition of "There I was ...", Ray tells his experience with a Chinese military diplomat who had a list of things he had to say.

"If you don't have an India play, you're not recognizing the realities of growth over the next 30 or 40 years on our planet."

U.S.-India Business Council President Ambassador Atul Keshap spotlights the shared values and democratic principles between India and the United States, emphasizing that India's rise to become the world's third largest economy will be a net benefit for the American people. The conversation also covers India's economic growth, the challenges of attracting foreign direct investment, the need for job creation, and the complexities of doing business in India. Additionally, the discussion touches on India's geopolitical relationships, including its border disputes with China, its involvement in the Quad alliance, and its pragmatic approach to foreign policy.

Member of Parliament Peter Khalil joins Jim and Ray to talk about how Australia has dealt with foreign interference operations--with an emphasis on Beijing's sophisticated influence machine--through national legislation and other security policies and framework documents. This response has been comprehensive, including strengthening Australia's defense, cyber security and intelligence efforts, as well as building security partnerships with like-minded democracies. Universities have been a particular target of foreign interference operations, and Peter discusses how Australia has tried to curb China's corrupting influences in academia while maintaining academic freedom. Another critical challenge has been to build in this national resilience while avoiding xenophobic policies and rhetoric that negatively impacts Australia's important ethnic Chinese communities. Peter ends by emphasizing how a successful the Indo-Pacific future must be built on a middle-power fulcrum, where like-minded countries work together to uphold the crucial rules-based order and deter conflict.

Admiral Phil Davidson, the former commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command from 2018-2021, discusses the so-called "Davidson window"--the period beginning in 2027 which many believe is when the threat of war over Taiwan will be at its greatest. He explains how his name became associated with this term. The then emphasizes the need for a strong conventional deterrent, the importance of deepening alliance relationships, and how showing commitment in other regions is crucial to averting war over Taiwan. He explains how China's growing bellicosity is perceived by other countries, and how Beijing is executing a pressure campaign to achieve its objectives short of war using asymmetric means.

Admiral Davidson also discusses the need for devoting resources Indo-Pacific defense and where those could come from, for addressing U.S. and allied force structure deficiencies and for assuring the region that the U.S. remains an effective and reliable security partner. He concludes by emphasizing Taiwan's importance to key U.S. allies--especially Japan.

To close, Jim tells the story of when he was accused of being a CIA spy for being "too nice".

Jim and Ray discuss the remarkable Southeast Asian nation of Singapore with Nydia Ngiow, Managing Director of BowerGroupAsia's Singapore office. They explore why how this small city-state emerged to play a leading role in Indo-Pacific business and geopolitical affairs--even hosting major international events like the Asia Tech Summit and the Shangri-La Dialogue. Nydia talks about how Singapore came to be, and how it navigates its complex relationships with the US and China and practices a "consistent, principled and pragmatic" foreign policy. They also touch on Singapore's external security threats, its internal politics and its approach to balancing political stability against civil liberties. Finally, she explains how Beijing's crackdown in Hong Kong and political changes in the U.S. have impacted Singapore.

In this week's edition of "There I was ...", Jim tells Ray his experience with a Singapore COVID quarantine.

Ray and Jim examine why we should care about the seemingly insignificant islands scattered across the Pacific region with former U.S. Ambassador to Palau John Hennessey-Niland. They highlight the strategic importance of these islands in terms of their supply routes and military access. John explains the Compacts of Free Association by which the U.S. guarantees the security of three Micronesian countries in exchange for exclusive access. They also discuss the rapidly expanding role of China in these island countries and the challenges of "elite capture" and corruption. The conversation emphasizes the need for the United States and its allies to avoid the temptation to ignore these countries and allow them to slip into China's orbit through benign neglect.

Finally, in the latest edition of "There I was...", Ray recounts how he and Jim were able to navigate a tricky international dilemma in Australia with the help of a very good military lawyer.

Ray and Jim talk to Elbridge Colby, author and former U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy and Force Development, about his provocative views concerning America's need to urgently address the China threat by prioritizing the Indo-Pacific theater. They discuss and debate the interaction between sharp honesty and assurance when dealing with America's allies, their concerns about U.S. staying power, and whether accepting risks in other theaters might actually undermine deterrence with respect to Taiwan and East Asia. The wide-ranging conversation covers a range of topics related to U.S. foreign policy and defense strategy, including China's gray-zone coercion and America's defense industrial base.