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Explorez tous les épisodes du podcast Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds

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1–50 of 343

TitreDateDurée
The LAST Ever UJWOB09 juil. 202400:17:24
Love from Jim x
The End Of Season 13 Of UJWOB28 juin 202400:11:05
A look at Biden’s awful first Presidential debate with Trump, and his 20% fall in betting markets overnight.
Household Debt v Government Debt - It’s Different27 juin 202400:09:43
And Australia may be out of the cricket (just enjoying typing that) but its inflation numbers sent bond markets lower yesterday.
‘Finely Balanced’ - No BoE Cut, But It’s On The Way. 21 juin 202400:09:57
And a look at Noah Smith’s views on ‘elite overproduction’.
UK Inflation Back To Target. And A Look At The Deutsche Bank Annual Default Study. 19 juin 202400:11:02
The ‘boiling frog’ impact of higher rates on credit is starting to be felt, but no big default rise until 2025.
European Credit Spreads Widen On France Fears17 juin 202400:09:00
And China leaves rates on hold, despite weak house price news.
Zero Inflation in May, Bond Rally Underway14 juin 202400:11:23
But French assets are really struggling, and credit is starting to weaken.
French Bond Markets Wobble. And No Bank of England Reserves Interest Grab From Labour. 12 juin 202400:12:58
Also: a smorgasbord of other bond market ephemera.
What A Week That Was! Elections Hit EM Assets, ECB’s ‘Unhappy’ Cut, And Bumper US Jobs. 10 juin 202400:11:21
US rate cut now not fully priced until December.
EU Bonds Going Into Global Indices31 mai 202400:10:27
Could mean less demand for traditional EZ sovereign debt, especially as France risks a downgrade from S&P.
Who’s Best For The Economy - Labour or Conservatives?28 mai 202400:11:27
Also: credit spreads are tight and stable. It was quiet - too quiet…. And CMBS takes its first big hit since the GFC.
Bank Of England To Skip A June Rate Cut24 mai 202400:10:26
And it’s not just because of July’s General Election - service sector inflation is too strong. 💪
Doctor Copper Makes A Record High20 mai 202400:09:02
Does that mean global growth is reaccelerating?
Equity Yields Are Way Below Credit Yields. Does That Make Sense?15 mai 202400:12:11
And Biden puts 100% tariffs on Chinese EVs.
US Economic Surprises Rolling Over?13 mai 202400:09:07
Aggregate US stats are now disappointing- although the rest of the world is doing OK.
Greenspan, ‘Atlas Shrugged’, & 2001 A Space Odyssey08 mai 202400:10:59
Also: Swedish rate cut, and no more excess savings left in America.
US Employment Weakens, Bonds Rally03 mai 202400:08:59
2 year US Treasury bond yields drop from 5% to 4.75% in 2 days.
Why Economics Needs To Be Sexier01 mai 202400:10:52
And H5N1 (Bird Flu) starts to get attention in financial markets. Gulp.
Gold vs Real Yields29 avr. 202400:11:20
Also: yen intervention at last? And US immigration at 3 million per year.
US Growth Slows Sharply in Q1, But Bonds Don’t Like PCE Inflation. 5% 2 Year Treasury Yields. 26 avr. 202400:10:49
And Japanese inflation goes the other way, with a downside shock.
The Tortured Bond Investors Department22 avr. 202400:10:21
Ben Bernanke v the Bank of England.
UJWOB Season 13: Bond Markets Now More Pessimistic Than The Fed On Rate Cuts19 avr. 202400:11:32
And: Skyscraper - I Love You.
India 🇮🇳 Special: Bond Index Inclusion In June, And Economic Outperformance27 mars 202400:16:11
And RIP behavioural economist Daniel Kahneman.
Anniversaries Galore! And Has The Fed Changed Its Reaction Function?25 mars 202400:09:10
Looser Fed, so Barclays says ‘buy TIPS’.
Central Banks Getting Fidgety: Moves From Switzerland, Mexico, Taiwan, Japan. 22 mars 202400:12:18
And I take a look at Monetary Policy Rules like the Taylor Rule (Spoiler Alert: the Fed should cut now).
Finally - Good Inflation News For The First Time In Months. UK CPI Below Expectations. 20 mars 202400:08:19
Also: CPI index rebalancing, corporate default rates, and the extreme injustice of the Nottingham Forest points deduction.
The End Of Negative Interest Rates in Japan 🇯🇵 18 mars 202400:11:47
The BoJ is expected to hike for the first time since 2007 later this week. And the Fed might signal a higher r* via the ‘dot plot’ at this week’s FOMC.
Why Is The Last Mile The Hardest Mile?14 mars 202400:10:07
And in credit-land, the NIP (New Issue Premium) has turned negative!
The ‘Right Tail Risk’ Is Fading11 mars 202400:10:59
The latest US jobs numbers reinforced the market’s view that the economy is resilient, but not re-accelerating.
No Rabbits Left 🐇 For The UK07 mars 202400:12:25
What does the Budget mean for gilts? And how does ‘tipflation’ get measured in the CPI?
No Sign of Inflation Re-Accelerating In the PCE Deflator Data29 févr. 202400:11:14
And a load of economic ephemera to keep you entertained. Includes a disconnect in the textbooks as to the causes of the Great Depression.
Larry Summers: A ‘Meaningful’ Chance Of A Fed Hike26 févr. 202400:08:56
And the cost of getting your kids driving a car. A drag on economic growth?
Do NVIDIA’s Results Mean That r* Needs To Rise?23 févr. 202400:09:18
The AI boom could raise the world’s cost of capital.
Fiscal Rules: Do Bond Investors Care?21 févr. 202400:18:06
And some economics related pop and rock songs. More needed please!
‘Rishession’ For the UK 🇬🇧 19 févr. 202400:10:26
And the Nikkei approaches its 1989 all time time, having fallen by 81% in the meantime.
Government Bonds Start 2024 With A Bit Of A Kicking09 févr. 202400:09:20
And more motorway related urban myths.
Is The Game Up For J-Pow As Trump Attacks?04 févr. 202400:07:33
And US employment is still on 🔥.
Letter From America: the US Economic Outlook Live From Manhattan28 janv. 202400:15:05
What’s the best New York song by the way? The LCD Soundsystem one? Velvet Underground’s Waiting For My Man? Fairytale of NY? Empire State of Mind? Don’t say Frank Sinatra.
How Italy 🇮🇹 Is Financing Its Budget Deficit: Grandma and Grandpa 19 janv. 202400:12:05
Also: a shock for the UK economy with a collapse in retail sales.
Why Do Americans Feel So Lousy About The US Economy?16 janv. 202400:10:05
Growth is strong, inflation is back towards target, jobs are plentiful.
Un-Inversion. Upward Sloping Yield Curves Are Back!12 janv. 202400:09:51
Lowest 2 year yields since May 2023, despite a stronger than expected CPI print.
Credit Starts 2024 on the Back Foot08 janv. 202400:12:22
Huge supply wave in January.
Season 12 of Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds05 janv. 202400:12:37
Election year - definitely. Soft landing year - maybe.
2024 Fixed Income Outlook: The Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds Special14 déc. 202300:38:59
Man I go on a bit. The stuff about The Pogues is at 38 minutes if you can’t face the rest.
The End of Season 11 of Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds06 déc. 202300:09:24
In which Uncle Jim talks you through his brother-in-law’s Spotify Unwrapped.
Alistair Darling, Moral Hazard and Northern Rock01 déc. 202300:10:35
And Eurozone inflation falls by more than expected.
Charlie Munger RIP. And Fed’s Waller Triggers a Bond Rally29 nov. 202300:11:55
Also Noah Smith on productivity
The UK’s Autumn Statement - Whoops We Did It Again?25 nov. 202300:13:36
Gilts underperformed significantly last week on higher borrowing expectations. Don’t worry though - it wasn’t as bad as the Trussonomics sell-off.
The Turning Point? Inflation Falls, Bonds Rally, the Dollar Tanks. 19 nov. 202300:11:33
US CPI for a October came in flat, leading to a big move lower in global bond yields.
US Credit Rating At Risk. UK Growth Stagnates. 13 nov. 202300:10:13
We also have Moody’s looking at Italy’s credit rating this week, with the risk of a downgrade to junk.
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