Explorez tous les épisodes du podcast Top Traders Unplugged
| Titre | Date | Durée | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GM69: The Global Economy from a Liquidity Perspective ft. Michael Howell | 04 Sep 2024 | 01:02:48 | |
Michael Howell, Managing Director of Crossborder Capital and Author of the Capital Wars Substack, returns in this episode to speak with Alan Dunne about the liquidity cycle’s influence on global markets. Michael outlines how he sees rising liquidity growth providing a favourable backdrop for risky assets and that the conventional narrative that the Fed has been tightening liquidity via quantitative tightening is misplaced. They discuss how the requirement to refinance $70 trillion in debt every year, and the prospect of double digit growth in debt, will inevitably lead to monetary inflation with profound implications for assets like gold and equities. In contrast, although tactical duration issuance by the US Treasury has supported US Treasuries the longer term outlook is less favourable. The conversation also touches on global FX markets, the recent unwinding of the JPY carry trade, and Michael’s perspective on a possible tacit agreement to weaken the US dollar, which could have far-reaching consequences for liquidity and asset markets. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Follow Michael on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 02:12 - Introduction to Michael Howell 03:15 - Howell's framework for looking at markets 06:32 - How Asian central banks impact U.S equities 09:17 - Do different types of liquidity have different effects? 12:17 - The last 15 years from a liquidity perspective 18:19 - Is liquidity the driver of the bond yield moves? 23:08 - Why has the quantitative tightening not been more disruptive? 32:44 - Is a debt crisis in sight? 39:48 - Howell's advice for allocating assets 42:45 - What has caused the reversal of the Yen? 48:02 - How to distinguish between capital flows and hedging activity 49:44 - Why are the G10 currencies so stable? 51:18 - A risk point on the radar 52:23 - The implications of the shift towards private credit financing 55:02 - A favorable environment for risk assets? 59:15 - Is Howell skeptical about the Chinese currency? 01:00:11 - The outlook of the liquidity cycle Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| SI311: BREAKING: New CTA Index being revealed ft. Andrew Beer | 01 Sep 2024 | 01:00:59 | |
As August comes to an end, we discuss this month of extremes for the trend-following community, marked by significant dispersion in performance and unusual price activity across multiple asset classes as well as the economy in general. We address the strengths and limitations of replication strategies and Andrew shares insights into how he thinks about appropriate correlations levels between the benchmark and the replication strategy. We discuss the challenges of the due diligence process in replication strategies including team size, why you should start allocating to managed futures and finally Andrew reveals an exciting world premiere that he and his team has been part of. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Andrew on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:49 - What has been on our radar recently? 04:17 - Industry performance update 08:07 - Just another August? 12:35 - Q1, Martin: How to reduce drawdowns in the managed futures ETF space? 14:54 - Has replication become obsolete? 25:14 - Andrew's guidelines for correlation 31:56 - Staying in sync 35:47 - How to deal with the simplicity of replication strategies 43:42 - A world premiere! 51:05 - An index madness 53:05 - Beware of the shiny new things 56:02 - How the new index works Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| IL28: The Transformation of the 21st Century Economy ft. Ernest Scheyder | 31 Jul 2024 | 00:57:41 | |
In this episode we speak to Ernest Scheyder, an award-winning journalist, senior correspondent for Reuters and author of the acclaimed new book: The War Below: Lithium, Copper and the Global Battle to Power Our Lives. We can’t have green energy without mining. But there is no way around the fact that mining is loud, dangerous and disruptive. Our conversation explores this tension that sits at the center of the energy transition. We also discuss new technologies for mineral extraction and recycling that have the potential to resolve some of these conflicts if they can be commercialized. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book. Follow Ernest on Twitter and read his book. Episode TimeStamps: 02:09 - Introduction to Ernest Scheyder 03:11 - Why are lithium and copper so important? 05:44 - The outlook of the U.S lithium production 09:12 - Who is Ioneer and the environmental impact of lithium production 17:26 - What is Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE) and why is it important? 23:17 - Supply and demand in lithium 25:02 - The challenges of recycling batteries 31:07 - Is a fully circular economy even possible? 34:14 - The negative consequences of copper mining 39:19 - A part of the people 41:53 - The complexities of tribal relations in the U.S. 43:46 - Is outsourcing copper mining morally irresponsible? 47:25 - The challenges of attracting labour in the mining industry 52:00 - How did Scheyder approach the writing of his book? Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| IL21: How China Manages Their FX Reserves ft. Zongyuan Zoe Liu | 20 Sep 2023 | 00:59:27 | |
In this episode we lift the veil on China’s often secretive system for managing its multi-trillion dollar holdings of foreign assets. Guiding us through the discussion is Dr. Zhongyuan Zoe Liu, the Maurice R. Greenberg fellow for China studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Dr. Liu spent years researching financial reports and conducting in-person interviews with those involved in running China’s multiple “Sovereign Leveraged Funds”. We discuss how they evolved, what purposes they serve for the Communist party and why other countries may soon follow China’s lead. The interview is based on Dr. Liu’s new book: How The Communist Party of China Finances Its Global Ambitions. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book. Follow Zongyuan on Twitter and Read her Book. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 03:52 - Sebastien’s journey into the investment management industry 07:45 - How Sebastien’s book came about 19:43 - Investing in a rising interest rate environment 24:06 - Responding to unexpected regime shifts in the markets 33:24 - Defining and achieving utility maximisation 37:48 - The merits and drawbacks of mean variance analysis 58:51 - The durability of treasury bonds 01:05:18 - Lessons from research on high performance individuals and teams 01:07:58 - Achieving a state of ‘flow’ 01:10:58 - Simplifying complex financial topics Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| SI261: The Biggest Story in Asset Allocation ft. Nick Baltas | 16 Sep 2023 | 00:59:19 | |
Today Nick Baltas and I embark on a journey through the shifting tides of investment strategy. For decades, equities have reigned supreme as the primary source of portfolio returns, while bonds played a crucial role as diversifiers. But over the past two decades, something intriguing has happened, and the dynamic between these two asset classes has evolved in ways we've never seen before. Stay tuned as we unravel the fascinating story of this transformation and explore what it means for modern investors. We also discuss what a leading Trend Follower describes as what really determins absolute returns in a trend following strategy...and you may be surprised of what it is. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Nick on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 01:07 - What has caught Nick's attention recently? 03:02 - Industry performance update 04:30 - Q1, Corey: If an investor is heavily weighed equities, are they better off with trend following providers that don't include equities as one of the utilized asset classes 10:31 - How model portfolios can benefit from trend following 19:02 - A Changing Stock-Bond Correlation (AQR Paper) 23:50 - How structural inflation can impact the stock-bond correlation 27:46 - Illiquid alternatives and commodities as diversifiers 35:27 - Significant shifts in the asset allocation space 38:14 - Is cash better than bonds? 41:40 - Paper from Transtrend 47:15 - What really drives the absolute return in a trend following portfolio 52:23 - Network Momentum across Asset Classes (Oxford-Man Institute paper) 57:08 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| GM49: Unveiling the Power of Confidence ft. Peter Atwater | 13 Sep 2023 | 01:13:24 | |
Join us for a captivating episode where we delve into the hidden influence of confidence in our decision-making. Discover why seemingly unprecedented events are often predictable with the right insights. Peter Atwater provides an accessible framework for understanding confidence, helping us navigate uncertainty and lack of control. Our conversation delves into how confidence impacts politics and the economy, as well as how we can nurture confidence in the younger generation to face life's challenges with resilience. Tune in to gain valuable perspectives on the role of confidence in shaping our world. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 02:04 - What does confidence mean to Peter? 04:38 - The feeling of vulnerability 06:19 - Being in the present 07:57 - Understanding the confidence map 12:08 - How to become confident 13:32 - Peter's advice for the younger audience 17:02 - Having confidence is not a constant 17:48 - Learnings from a traumatic experience 21:23 - Map it out 22:33 - Why is sentiment changing so quickly? 28:05 - The generational shift 30:49 - Is crypto the new Woodstock? 36:15 - Is the Fed losing the confidence of the markets? 42:57 - When does panic occur? 44:28 - Does it apply to markets as well? 48:34 - Thoughts on the current political situation 56:51 - Addressing major societal problems 02:03:56 - The challenges of fake news and media 02:06:14 - Process - an underrated advantage? Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| SI260: The Voldemort of the Asset Management Business ft. Andrew Beer | 09 Sep 2023 | 01:16:35 | |
Is the economy actually doing better than we expected? This week we are joined by Andrew Beer, where we discuss the use of replication strategies in the current economic environment and how many markets/factors you should include, how managers can differentiate themselves from each other and the outlook for growth in the CTA industry. We also discuss the challenges of the Lemming effect in investing and today’s obsession with multi-strategy hedge funds, the capacity of the trend following industry and much more. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Andrew on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 01:20 - What has happened recently? 05:51 - Industry performance update? 07:13 - Are managed futures funds are right for replication? 13:55 - How did they test it? 17:23 - Are economies becoming less synchronised? 25:02 - How many markets are enough for replication? 29:01 - Why are people going into alternative markets? 32:58 - Have managers become more different or similar? 41:02 - Industry disruptions - how is Andrew different? 47:22 - Why CTA assets will be much higher in 10 years 54:44 - How Andrew resist making changes to his replication strategy 56:54 - Train wreck in hedge fund land 01:04:02 - How do multi-strat funds manage their expenses? 01:08:25 - The challenges of the industry 01:14:21 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| GAL05: Pumping the BRICS Agenda & Hidden Risks ft. Nelson Rangel | 06 Sep 2023 | 00:58:59 | |
In this episode we are joined by a true Macro thinker, Nelson Rangel, CIO at Raven Capital. Nelson walks us through his fascinating lens of the world evolved from his formative career years where his mentors taught him chaos theory and quantitative analysis. The conversation delves in to global conflict, adapting to social media information flows, and the challenges of finding investment value in LATAM markets. Be sure to stick around to the very end where Nelson leaves us with a cliff hanger as he reveals the beginning of his three part investment framework to interpret the impact of human contact with more advanced civilizations! ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Follow Nelson on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 03:32 - Introduction to Nelson Rangel 08:09 - Takeaways from being exposed to chaos theory 12:29 - A look around the globe 17:37 - Reflecting on the U.S debt 21:17 - How is the next decade unfolding for China? 25:29 - The BRICs taking over the monetary system 30:38 - Who is behind the manipulation of narrative on social media? 34:58 - Being adaptable to new scenarios 39:26 - Advice for investing in South America 48:14 - News about UAPs (UFOs) 56:24 - Key takeaways from Niels Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| SI259: Trend Following & the New Normal ft. Katy Kaminski | 02 Sep 2023 | 01:01:02 | |
Today, we welcome Katy Kaminski to the Systematic Investor Series, as we dive deep into trend following systems and how to overcome the unintended biases that can creep into CTA systems, why Katy believes everybody has to “go back to the drawing board”, why it is unrealistic to expect things to go back to “normal”, and why Katy believes we are not in a crisis but rather a correction. We also discuss how a crisis is in the eye of the beholder and shed light on the current global macro narrative. We round things off uncovering why Katy believes bonds are mispriced, why "simple" trend following strategies persist to thrive and much more. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Katy on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 01:16 - What has caught our attention recently? 03:43 - Industry performance update 06:06 - The challenge of bias in trend following systems 13:54 - Taking the bonds out? 16:22 - Advice on trading universal parameters 19:35 - Going back to normal - a fantasy? 23:35 - Trend following - a long divergence strategy 26:31 - Are we actually in a crisis? 32:05 - Are crises becoming shorter and shorter? 36:38 - How does Katy define a crisis? 37:40 - A different understanding of trend following? 40:32 - Are there different types of crises? 45:55 - A global macro perspective 51:38 - Are bonds mispriced? 55:37 - From predictable to unpredictable inflation 59:11 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| GM48: Resilient Growth BUT Economic Downturn Ahead ft. Chen Zhao | 30 Aug 2023 | 00:57:07 | |
Chen Zhao, co-founder and Chief Global Strategist at Alpine Macro joins us today to outline why growth has been resilient in 2023 but why he sees deflation and an economic downturn as a rising risk as we move into in 2024. We hear why the best global macro trades are the hardest to hold and why he believes long fixed income is the best trade at the moment. We discuss the long term outlook for growth and inflation in the major economies and hear why Chen is dismissive of the idea that deglobalisation and the greening of the global economy may be inflationary forces going forward. We also discuss investment opportunities in Japan and emerging markets and hear why Chen is concerned about the macro outlook in China but sees value in the local stock market. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Follow Chen on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 02:13 - Who is Chen Zhao? 06:19 - Why has the economy been so resilient? 11:20 - The typical electoral cycle? 16:44 - The outlook for inflation 19:27 - Concerns about stagflation - valid or not? 26:07 - Rates going back to zero? 28:48 - Achieving high sustained investment growth 31:01 - The effect of moving towards climate friendly production 32:57 - China - a deflationary force 38:38 - Bond yields - any surprises? 39:29 - Concerns about the U.S. debt dynamics? 42:07 - Have yields reached their peak? 42:54 - The situation in Europe 45:20 - Back to the 2010s? 46:36 - A global increase in spending? 47:37 - Concerns from a global risk perspective 51:00 - The Japanese economy 52:35 - The outlook for emerging markets 54:45 - Advice for other traders 55:59 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| SI258: Absolute Momentum in a Chaotic Environment ft. Richard Brennan | 26 Aug 2023 | 01:26:22 | |
Richard Brennan is back to discuss the lurking uncertainty in the economy and take a deep dive into absolute momentum. What is it, how is it used and how does it relate to trend following? How does complex systems really function and evolve over time and what role does correlation play in system design? And financial markets is in fact chaotic systems, then how do predictive modellers trade them? Is there an edge from price following techniques in their ability to trade in highly complex and sometimes chaotic environment? Why noise is not as random as it might occur, how risk should be calculated in complex systems and much more. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Rich on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 02:31 - What has happened since last conversation? 08:04 - Industry perfomance update 14:08 - Q1, Correy: If an investor is heavily weighed equities, as most are, are they better off with trend following providers that don't include equities as one of the utilized asset classes? 20:06 - A deep dive into absolute momentum 30:30 - Different implementations, same results 45:47 - The role of correlation 50:56 - Calculating risk in complicated systems 01:14:10 - The weakness of the Sharpe Ratio 01:21:04 - Know your manager well 01:24:19 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| IL20: How to Survive the Current Fourth Turning ft. Neil Howe | 23 Aug 2023 | 01:22:27 | |
Best-selling author and renowned historian Neil Howe joins the show to talk about his New York Times’ bestselling book The Fourth Turning Is Here. Neil believes history moves in generational cycles that last about the length of one long human life. Each cycle has four eras - Turnings - that always arrive in the same order and last about twenty years. We are now midway through a Fourth Turning which is a time of exceptional upheaval and conflict. Previous Fourth Turnings happened during the Great Depression and WWII, the American Civil War and the American Revolution. The good news is a society that successfully navigates a Fourth Turning emerges reborn - more equal, more optimistic and more united. We discuss the implications of this era for financial markets, why it will be the Millennial generation that leads us through the coming conflict and what will characterize the world that emerges afterwards. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book. Follow Neil on Twitter and Read his Book. Episode TimeStamps: 02:15 - Introduction to Neil Howe 03:43 - What characterise each turning? 17:53 - A generation cliff 25:18 - The importance of the financial crisis in 2008 27:55 - Cycles are non linear 30:08 - Every crisis has a catalyst 35:56 - A polarised and divided world 41:29 - Can conflict bring us together? 48:30 - The outlook for war and conflict 52:12 - A millennial revolution 58:18 - Will boomers give up? 01:07:48 - How will society change? 01:19:57 - Key takeaways from Niels Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| SI257: Preparing for a Volatile Future ft. Cem Karsan | 19 Aug 2023 | 01:08:14 | |
Cem Karsan joins us for a wide ranging conversation where we discuss the current volatility environment and if vol trading can actually be predictable, the current Fourth Turning and how this will impact the level of volatility and where Cem’s outlook differ from Neil Howe's, why demographics is “destiny” and the current tug of war between flows and macro. We also discuss why Cem is watching NASDAQ so closely and the historic rotations that are happening in markets at the moment, why Cem believes it is important to “be water” and much more. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:56 - What has caught Cem's attention recently? 03:14 - Volatility and seasonal patterns 08:27 - Industry performance update 09:34 - Is vol trading predictable? 17:15 - Why are vol spikes becoming shorter? 20:19 - Cem's take on the fourth turning 33:12 - Why is demographics so critical today? 39:04 - A tug of war between flows and macro 50:28 - A new all time high for stocks? 52:07 - Major moves in markets 01:00:58 - Too bullish too soon? 01:03:03 - Be flexible, be water 01:06:07 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| SI306: If Trend Following was an Olympic Sport... ft. Mark Rzepczynski | 27 Jul 2024 | 01:06:08 | |
Together with Mark Rzepczynski we discuss how the activist treasury issurance of more bills than coupons have provided more quantitative easing and why we are seeing a decline in concern for inflation and rising interest rates. Mark also shares key insights to why building a system is more important than building models and what you can use a backtest for, and we discuss whether investors should focus mostly on stocks or bonds in their portfolio. We also discuss why you should include trend following in your portfolio and ways to assess macro economic risk, how AI will impact the trend following industry, how the hot hand fallacy applies to investing and much more. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Mark on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:54 - If trend following was an Olympic sport, which one would it be? 03:17 - What has been on our radar recently? 06:20 - Bills = money? 09:59 - A declining concern for rising rates and inflation? 13:38 - Industry performance update 16:01 - Q1, Philippe: When to remove an asset as a trend follower?? 26:10 - "I've never seen a bad backtest" 31:56 - Simplicity vs. complexity 35:26 - Stocks or bonds - what should you prefer? 40:18 - Why you should have trend following in your portfolio 48:50 - How to assess true macro economic risk 53:33 - Machine learning and AI in systematic trading 01:00:22 - The hot hand fallacy Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| GM47: Is the Economy Actually Doing Better Than Expected? ft. Peter Berezin | 16 Aug 2023 | 01:00:46 | |
Peter Berezin, Chief Global Strategist and Research Director at BCA Research joins us today for a wide ranging discussion on the outlook for global economy and global capital markets. We hear why Peter has been more upbeat than the consensus on the outlook for the US economy but why he continues to believe that the outlook is for recession next year. He outlines why US stocks may continue to make gains in the near term but the outlook is much more challenging on a five-year view. We discuss his Kinked Philips Curve framework for analysing the economy and why that continues to point to declining inflation in the near term. We also discuss the outlook for China, the renminbi, the yen and global emerging markets. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 02:15 - Introduction to Peter Berezin 05:35 - The current state of the U.S economy 10:14 - Where is inflation heading? 16:24 - A wrong prediction? 20:23 - How will markets be impacted by AI and new tech? 24:39 - How has the economy withstood higher rates? 27:10 - What does Peter's models show us? 31:32 - Challenges in the credit space 33:33 - The implications of high valuations 36:08 - Potential weaknesses in the system 40:45 - Looking outside of the U.S. 44:43 - The outlook for currencies 47:03 - Emerging markets and the geopolitical situation in China 49:43 - How is Asia holding up? 52:08 - Are we going to see changes in the inflation target? 56:21 - The big picture view over the next decade 58:23 - Advice for new investors 59:37 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| SI256: Investor Behaviour & the How to Deal with Transaction Costs ft. Mark Rzepczynski | 12 Aug 2023 | 01:02:38 | |
Mark Rzepczynski is back to tackle some important topics relating to systematic trading. We discuss whether there is a best time of the year to trade and what has been driving the markets recently, how high interest rates and uncertainty affect investor behaviour, dispersion within markets and how it influences your trend following return. We also discuss quant research, the motivated reasoning bias and the importance of being open minded as a researcher to find better ways of being a trend follower, ways of dealing with transaction costs when building models, optimal ways of performing backtests and much more. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Mark on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:38 - Is there a best time to trade? 05:07 - What has caught Mark's attention recently? 08:36 - Industry performance update 10:01 - Will we see a change in investor behaviour? 17:04 - The benefit of cash 21:11 - Are guaranteed products making a comeback? 26:18 - The dispersion within markets 32:05 - The Ex ante and Ex post problem for quant research 39:23 - Stay open minded 43:46 - Dealing with transaction costs 56:53 - The road to robust models 01:00:37 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| IL19: Revolutionary Technology & the Coming Economic Boom ft. Mark P. Mills | 09 Aug 2023 | 01:00:26 | |
Mark Mills joins us to discuss his new book The Cloud Revolution: How The Convergence of New Technologies Will Unleash the Next Economic Boom and a Roaring 2020’s. Mark is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, a faculty fellow at Northwestern’s engineering school and a strategic partner in energy-tech venture fund Montrose Lane. In our conversation Mark explains how advances on three fronts - information, machines and materials - are converging in a way that is going to propel a surge in economic growth and productivity. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book. Follow Mark on Twitter & Read his Book. Episode TimeStamps: 02:12 - Introduction to Mark Mills and his book 10:00 - What is meant by "the cloud"? 15:46 - The Cloud Revolution 21:44 - Collecting data with AI 28:10 - What is computational material and how is it used? 36:05 - Designing material with AI 40:08 - Getting more out of technology 48:43 - Working with robots 52:21 - Increasing productivity in health care 57:55 - Key takeaways from Niels Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| SI255: A Treasury Tsunami & Slow Burning Minsky Moments ft. Alan Dunne | 05 Aug 2023 | 01:10:34 | |
Today, I'm joined by Alan Dunne to discuss the ‘treasury tsunami’ and the current challenges that the economy faces, the state of the Japanese and Chinese economy and the fear of ‘Japanification’, what is a reasonable return expectation for the different asset classes and why you should allocate to trend following despite the scepticism surrounding it. We also discuss how we are witnessing a slow burning Minsky moment in terms of debt and the refinancing risks that will emerge in the coming years, why meaningful allocation to markets is more important than allocating to too many markets and much more. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 01:30 - What's been on Alan's radar in recent weeks? 03:54 - The big macro picture 12:26 - A treasury tsunami is coming 17:29 - Why has the economy stayed strong? 21:13 - A fear of Japanification 26:28 - Industry performance update 28:39 - A period of dispersion 33:36 - Calculating the return expectations 41:26 - Don't sleep on trend following 47:47 - Slow burning Minsky moments 55:22 - A conversation with Christopher Zook 01:01:18 - Charlie Munger article about diversification 01:08:34 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| GAL04: Expanding Your Consciousness and Reality ft. Mark Gober | 02 Aug 2023 | 01:03:09 | |
Do you ever have that feeling someone is staring at you? You turn around and find someone looking at you. What causes that? We get the answer in this episode of our Galactic Macro series as we sit down with Mark Gober, author, and board director at Apollo 14 astronaut Edgar Mitchell’s Institute of Noetic Sciences. Mark explains to us the science behind extra sensory perception, near death experiences, UAP and then shows the one thing they all have in common - consciousness, the ultimate technology. You won’t want to miss this fascinating conversation where we explore these new frontiers. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Mark on Twitter. Follow David on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 03:36 - Introduction to Mark Gober 07:13 - Constructing a new reality 11:18 - Mark's journey with libertarianism 17:55 - Understanding consciousness 23:33 - Near death experiences and the science behind 27:14 - The shared death experiences 28:51 - What is terminal lucidity? 31:50 - The role of psychic abilities 38:42 - The road to studying UFOs 44:05 - UAP encounters are nothing new 49:23 - The Rendlesham Forest case 52:33 - Where is this all going? 56:55 - Who is Robert Bigelow? 01:00:45 - Key takeaways from Niels Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| TTU145: All In on Trend Following ft. Jerry Parker, Founder of Chesapeake Capital | 31 Jul 2023 | 01:09:57 | |
Jerry Parker, Founder of Chesapeake Capital is perhaps the most successful of the famous group of Turtles, and today we discuss what he has learned from his 40+ years love affair with Trend Following, and how he has evolved his CTA program. We debate the challenges of using the Sharpe Ratio and what improvement really look like, how he uses volatility in his trend following process and the conflicts that can arise when working with clients. We also find out why Jerry believes you can be a good manager without using stops even if this is not how he does it, why he believes in trend following plus nothing, why he felt he had no choice than to launch an ETF with that name and much more. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Learn more about Chesapeake Capital. Episode Timestamps: 02:58 - Introduction to Chesapeake Capital 07:02 - Jerry's key trend following learnings 12:54 - Jerry's investment philosophy 17:02 - Being evolutionary without too much tinkering 22:09 - Advice on running a trend following program 26:48 - Their process for selecting parameters 32:15 - What does an improvement look like...if not a higher Sharpe? 39:25 - The role of volatility in the trend following process 44:41 - The challenges of working with clients 48:51 - What if everyone was a trend follower? 54:21 - Can you be a good manager without using stops? 57:05 - Why are the other firms "wrong"? 01:04:33 - Trend following disagreements 01:06:42 - Excitements for the future 01:08:23 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| SI254: Does Trend Following Single Stocks Make Sense? ft. Nick Baltas | 29 Jul 2023 | 01:02:31 | |
Nick Baltas returns to discuss single stock trend momentum dynamics and more. With his usual academic elegance, Nick dives into Portfolio Construction and Risk Management, Static vs. Dynamic positioning, how to apply each type in your trading, and why one is not “better” than the other, the key factors of portfolio construction and why the difference between cross-sectional and time-series momentum is important to understand. We also discuss trend following in single stocks and why it is a complicated matter, single stock factors trend as well CTA strategies inside ETF wrappers...the pros and cons and much more. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Nick on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 01:36 - What has caught Nick's attention recently? 06:28 - Industry performance update 07:28 - Dynamic vs. Static positioning 17:54 - Is one better than the other? 22:35 - The objective of Dynamic positioning 29:35 - Cross-Sectional and Time-Series Momentum: What Is the Difference? 43:57 - AQR paper on single stock factor trend 50:17 - CTA strategies inside and ETF wrapper...a good idea? 01:00:35 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| ALO15: Exploring Today's Investment Opportunities ft. Christopher Zook | 26 Jul 2023 | 01:07:22 | |
Christopher Zook, Founder, Chairman and CIO of CAZ Investments joins us for fascinating and thought-provoking conversation on the outlook for the economy and the investment opportunities in current markets. Christopher explains why he thinks the risk-reward is so poor in public equity markets at the moment and why investors are being offered poor prospective returns for the risk. We discuss private markets and the areas where CAZ is focused on allocating capital, particularly sports franchises and GP stakes. We also discuss some of the potential challenges in private markets as consumer and real estate debt is refinanced in the coming years. We delve into what Christopher and his team look for when selecting managers and partners, and the questions they ask to help unearth the next thematic opportunity. We wrap up by discussing the big influences on Christopher’s career and his key learnings from over three decades in the industry. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Follow Christopher on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 02:51 - Introduction to Christopher Zook 05:11 - Zook's current view on the markets and economy 09:06 - The outlook for real estate 12:48 - Stagflation and the impact of AI 16:29 - Parallels to the .com bubble? 18:45 - Options trading - a key driver of short term 21:35 - Building portfolios for the current environment 25:44 - Inflation, stocks and pricing power 28:14 - Opportunities in markets 30:50 - Investing in sports teams 38:54 - GP stakes and the asset management industry 45:40 - Bad actors in the industry 49:44 - 50 shades of risk 54:25 - Finding the right people to work with 57:40 - Lessons learned 59:17 - Finding the next big thing 01:02:49 - Working with Tony Robbins 01:04:30 - Advice for new investors Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| SI253: A New Trend Following ETF is Born ft. Andrew Beer & Jerry Parker | 22 Jul 2023 | 01:14:07 | |
Today, we are joined by Andrew Beer and Jerry Parker for a fascinating conversation about the different approches to trend following within the ETF landscape. We discuss what the role trend following should play in a portfolio, the best approach to staying diversified, and where the growth might come from in the ETF space. We also discuss a few more controversial topics like fees, and why Jerry view trend following and managed futures as 2 different things and much more. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Andrew on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 01:44 - What's been on Andrew's and Jerry's radar lately? 04:38 - Industry performance update 05:43 - Lessons learned from launching Trend Following Plus Nothing 10:21 - What should the role of Trend Following be? 13:45 - New ETFs - where will the growth come from? 16:35 - The best approach to trading markets 23:37 - Staying balanced with single stocks 27:54 - Biases in Jerry's trading 30:11 - Will Jerry's correlation to equities begin to increase? 33:59 - Q1, Oliver: Why pay Jerry higher fees for being long equities? 40:02 - Will large hedge funds bring ETFs to markets? 44:08 - Are we in a hedge fund CTA fee bubble? 46:59 - Jerrys take on performance fees 52:24 - Andrew's take on performance fees 54:26 - Trend Following vs Managed Futures - 2 different things? 01:08:52 - Tax efficiency in ETFs 01:12:24 - Final thoughts Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| GAL03: Global Conflicts and the Trajectory of Humanity ft. Dr. Paul Sullivan | 19 Jul 2023 | 01:19:46 | |
When it comes to global conflict and understanding the limits of Earth's resources the man to turn to is Dr. Paul Sullivan. Paul is a seasoned professor that has taught at several of the world's leading universities and influenced the thinking of students that are now some of the DOD's top brass as well as world leaders. His depth of understanding and commitment to a lifetime of learning is uncommon in a world of short attention spans. We sit with Paul in this conversation to understand his current view of global conflicts and the trajectory that humanity finds itself on. Join us as we gain new understandings into the corners of geopolitics, the realities of a clean energy transition, building new leaders, and much more. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow David on Twitter. Follow Paul on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 02:43 - Introduction to Dr. Paul Sullivan 13:58 - The current state of Syria 18:34 - Understanding the Middle East conflicts 24:33 - Where is the US most vulnerable? 27:13 - The challenges that China is facing 29:33 - Why is the US supporting the one China policy? 32:04 - Resources and conflicts - what are we missing? 35:31 - What to do if you want to make a difference 44:14 - Reaching breakthroughs in physics 50:57 - The risk of complex technology 56:05 - How do we prepare our children to become great leaders? 01:03:07 - Expanding our intuition 01:07:58 - Hopes for the future and book recommendations 01:16:32 - Thanks for listening 01:17:01 - Key takeaways from Niels Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| GM66: Trump Trade and the 3 Legged Stool ft. MacroAlf & Cem Karsan | 24 Jul 2024 | 01:06:44 | |
Alfonso Peccatiello joins us for a compelling discussion on today’s challenging macroeconomic environment. Alongside my co-host Cem Karsan, we explore the impacts of massive debts, weak public sector balance sheets, and rising wealth inequality. We delve into how polarized electorates and global economic fragmentation are reshaping policies, discussing the economic implications of new tariffs, a weaker Dollar, and the prospects for Gold and Bitcoin. Alfonso shares his insights on rising interest rates and inflation, emphasizing the crucial role of central bank policies in shaping market dynamics. We also touch upon the potential impacts of geopolitical tensions and speculate on the effects of possible future scenarios, like a Trump presidency, on the global economy. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Follow Alfonso on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 01:45 - The impact of rising rates and inflation on the global economy 10:29 - Inflation expectations and the Trump trade 18:38 - What kind of inflation are we dealing with now? 27:10 - What caused a change in MacroAlf's view on inflation 34:16 - It's all about getting the distribution right 46:26 - Alf's perspective on the U.S. Election 51:20 - What will a win for Trump mean for the global economy? 55:38 - Could the U.S. lose their AAA rating? 01:02:31 - A "Golden" idea Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| SI252: From Crypto Sceptic to Crypto Adviser ft. Rob Carver | 15 Jul 2023 | 01:07:00 | |
Rob Carver joins me to reveal some surprising news about his new “job”. We discuss portfolio optimization and why you should be concerned about certain types optimization techniques, why Rob believes trend following a trend following ETF is a bad idea, when is the best time to buy trend followers and how to use factors when applying an exponential moving average. We also discuss safe trading and how to achieve the most diversification for your portfolio, the dodgy behaviour that exists in the crypto space and much more. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Rob on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 02:15 - Update of the week 07:50 - Industry performance update 10:49 - Q1, Scott: Should i be concerned about adjusting portfolio weights according to the backtested sharpe ratio of my system? 18:52 - Q2.1, Andrew: Is trend following the trend following ETFs a good idea? 28:16 - Q2.2, Andrew: What is the advantage of factors of 4? 34:13 - Q2.3, Andrew: About using free backtesting systems 40:46 - Rob becoming a crypto adviser...what! 45:12 - Trading safely 52:22 - Dodgy behaviour in the crypto space 57:37 - Paper: A different point of skew 01:05:04 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| IL18: We Need to Talk About Inflation ft. Stephen King | 12 Jul 2023 | 01:14:39 | |
HSBC Senior Economic Adviser Stephen King joins the show to discuss the most important long-term issue facing western economies: inflation. Stephen’s new book - We Need To Talk About Inflation - is an FT “book to read in 2023” for good reasons. He explains why inflation is not just about money creation, it also depends on public perceptions and the fatal temptation of governments to usurp central bank independence (what he calls the Richard Burton - Elizabeth Taylor rule). Stephen explains how to evaluate future inflation risks through his “4 Inflationary Tests” and we talk through how the US and Europe currently measure up. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book. Follow Stephen on Twitter & Read his Book. Episode TimeStamps: 02:05 - Introduction to Stephen King and his book 09:00 - The relationship between public behaviour and the supply of money 13:21 - Can it be deflationary? 17:12 - The Taylor Burton effect 30:29 - The unfairness of inflation 37:46 - Has the impact of inflation become worse over time? 46:26 - Institutional changes and inflation bias 51:04 - Is the radar still switched off? 52:49 - A collapse in money supply? 55:50 - Are central banks acting too slow? 58:31 - The current state of supply conditions 01:02:26 - The relationsship between demographics and inflation 01:05:57 - Building the ideal Fed Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| SI251: A Deep Dive Into Models and Systems ft. Richard Brennan | 08 Jul 2023 | 01:02:54 | |
Richard Brennan returns for a true trend following conversation where we dive deep into the construction of models and systems. We discuss why long-term trading are often preferred by many trend followers and what we can learn from acoustics and physics in terms of noise and signals, how to get the most diversification from highly correlated markets through system design and why you should trade with an ensemble of markets. We also discuss how complex adaptive systems evolve over time, how to understand transitions events and much more. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Rich on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 01:03 - An update on the Australian economy 02:50 - A global macro perspective 05:38 - Industry performance update 08:39 - A bias towards long term models? 20:28 - Emergent structures and the butterfly effect 25:08 - Something is happening at the South Pole 26:01 - Getting diversification out of highly correlated markets 39:23 - Understanding complex adaptive systems 54:05 - The stability of markets 57:17 - Applying different rules to different markets 01:00:32 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| GM46: An Emerging Market Boom of Epic Proportion ft. Louis-Vincent Gave | 05 Jul 2023 | 01:03:10 | |
Today we are joined by Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal Research for a fascinating discussion on the key global macro trends impacting markets. Louis outlines his case for why the consensus is wrong to expect a US recession and why he sees accommodative US fiscal policy as a key driver of the economy in the next 1-2 years. We discuss the upside and downside risks to inflation and how weather patterns may be an underappreciated risk to inflation in the next 1-2 years. One of Louis’ key calls is an upbeat outlook on emerging markets, particularly in the middle East and Asia. The recent peace deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia is a key element of this, while the structural trend of de-dollarization and emerging economies increasingly selling goods in their own currency are other elements. We wrap up with an assessment of AI and the economic implications in the medium term. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 02:23 - Introduction to Louis Vincent Gave 05:28 - Is the economy starting to crack? 10:40 - When is the recession coming? 13:13 - The outlook for inflation 18:36 - The problem with designification 21:18 - The challenges of Chinese economy 27:56 - Can the Japanese economic situation be compared to China? 31:31 - Looking beyond the U.S and China 36:12 - An epic boom in emerging markets 40:20 - The structural growth in China 43:28 - Middle East joining forces 46:53 - Dealing with the debt 50:43 - Inverted yield curve and the bond market 54:09 - How will AI affect the economy? 59:22 - Good advice and book recommendations 01:02:00 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| SI250: Tour de Volatility ft. Cem Karsan | 01 Jul 2023 | 01:00:29 | |
Cem Karsan joins me for a tour of the current volatility and macro environment, where we take a deep dive into where markets and economy are heading. We discuss the potential of the economy going into stagflation and why many investors might not be prepared for what is to come, the unpredictable volatility environment and how technology like AI is affecting markets. We also discuss the potential dangers of zero day options and how to position yourself appropriately for the markets, how to prepare for the upcoming summer holidays and much more. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:45 - The global macro perspective 03:07 - Industry performance update 04:48 - Reviewing the first half of the year 09:14 - A deep dive into markets 24:37 - Preparing for a major blowup 39:24 - Zero day options - a loaded gun? 45:36 - Best Ever 1st half for NASDAQ 48:27 - Preparing for summer holidays 53:35 - Are CTAs and trend followers are pushing the markets higher? 56:43 - Advice when heading into holidays 58:33 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| GAL02: The Blind Spot of AI & UAPs ft. Izabella Kaminska & Dario Garcia Garner | 28 Jun 2023 | 01:15:32 | |
There are few instincts sharper than those of a talented journalist. Izabella Kaminska, founder and editor of The Blind Spot, and her colleague Dario Garcia Giner have those instincts in spades. While still at the Financial Times, on December 10, 2021, Izabella penned a thought provoking article titled Do portfolios have a UAP risk?. Long before anyone was talking about UAP in the financial sector Izabella recognized that this taboo subject could impact markets and was worth paying attention to. That article led to research analyst Dario Garcia Giner reaching out and joining Izabella at The Blind Spot where they continue their work uncovering interesting and important corners of markets that remain overlooked. Listen in as we discuss with Izabella and Dario their perspectives on UAP, geopolitics, and the complexity of understanding and managing risk in a sci-fi like world. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Follow David on Twitter. Follow Izabella on Twitter. Follow The Blind Spot. Episode TimeStamps: 03:33 - What have UAPs even to do with finance? 09:26 - When will UAPs become a common risk disclosure? 15:59 - Who is Ryan Graves and why is he important? 19:15 - Their reaction to Politico article by Chris Mellon 26:20 - Classified information, lacking coverage and the Havana Syndrome 32:03 - A potential for geopolitical conflict 39:13 - The biggest underpriced risk in global markets 44:43 - Conspiracy theories and the weird factor 51:55 - Mass fragmentation and loss of trust in media 01:00:32 - What is happening at the South Pole? 01:06:56 - Inspiration and book recommendations 01:12:00 - Thanks for listening 01:12:39 - Key takeaways from Niels Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| SI249: Unfulfilled Expectations in 1st Half of 2023 ft. Mark Rzepczynski | 24 Jun 2023 | 01:04:40 | |
Today, Mark Rzepczynsky joins me to discuss momentum gap and why momentum is a core component of all markets, the concept of "stretch" and when to enter and exit trades at the right time, dislocations in markets and how AI may or may not affect the trend following space. We then review all the things we were "promised" would happen in the first half of 2023...but did not! And to round things off, we dive into what causes models to fail and why there are many ways to interpret the success of a model, the challenge of predicting markets and much more. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Mark on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 01:03 - What happened this week? 03:48 - Industry performance update 05:21 - Article on momentum gap 16:46 - Getting the entry and exit right 23:25 - What did not happen this year? 32:02 - AI and trend following 35:48 - Advice on using AI and machine learning 42:59 - Failure of models 52:19 - The challenge of evaluating models 56:28 - Being macro aware 01:00:35 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| GAL01: Galactic Macro...The New Investment Frontier ft. Jay Anderson | 21 Jun 2023 | 01:18:25 | |
2023 is a year for the record books as world changing technologies such as AI once believed to be science fiction become science fact. The most exotic technologies, however, are thought to be related to Unidentified Anomalous Phenomenon and may also have an AI connection. At the vanguard of the new generation of UAP researchers is Jay Anderson. He kicks off our Galactic Macro series with David Dorr as they discuss the breathtaking disclosures coming out of the U.S. Pentagon and connect the dots to unraveling a mystery that may be as old as humanity itself. What will be revealed in the new physics displayed by UAP and documented by the world's best military signal intelligence systems? Has the U.S., Russia, China or anyone else made breakthroughs in physics that are not yet publicly known? Are we alone? The implications of what we discuss not only could impact every aspect of financial markets, they could impact every aspect of how we view our place in the universe. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow David on Twitter. Follow Jay and Project Unity on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 03:08 - Introduction to Jay Andersen and Project Unity 08:50 - The tipping point 20:51 - An ever-changing phenomenon 29:29 - Increasing encounters - why now? 37:41 - The importance of Wright-Patterson Air Force Base 42:25 - Evolving into a new human species 50:12 - Staying well prepared for new technology 55:30 - The Global Event Rating Algorithm 58:33 - An acclimation process 01:08:56 - How did Jay get into the UFO subject? 01:14:17 - Final thoughts? Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| SI248: Trend Following, AI & Mastering Risk Management ft. Alan Dunne | 17 Jun 2023 | 01:05:20 | |
Alan Dunne returns to the show following a busy week of Fed action and economic activity. We discuss how technology like artificial intelligence impacts the economy and investors, both currently and in the future, the use of machine learning trend following and why it is important to be aware of your own biases. We also discuss what constitutes good risk management and why risk management is key to any successful investor, the evolution of risk management and much more. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:58 - The big macro picture 13:25 - Industry performance update 16:33 - Artificial Intelligence - friend or foe? 28:00 - Using AI in trend following 32:40 - Katy Kaminski paper on bonds 39:36 - Being aware of your own biases 44:49 - Quantica paper on protection and returns 48:35 - Transtrend paper - volatility vs. drawdowns 53:24 - Risk management - the secret sauce? 57:28 - The evolution of risk management 01:03:24 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| GM45: A Geopolitical Mosh Pit ft. Michael Kao | 14 Jun 2023 | 00:59:58 | |
As has become clear in the past couple of years, the interconnection between Macro Economics and Geo-Politics is stronger today than ever before in our lifetime. And who better to explain this mosh pit than the Ubankaoboy himself, Michael Kao who joins me and Cem Karsan for a fascinating and wide ranging conversation. We cover topics like China's debt problem, Oil and the mistakes the US are making as we speak, OPEC+ as well has hear Michael, who's parents fled from China to Taiwan, describe an potentially "explosive" scenario in which China may well be united with Taiwan that he is hearing from one of his "Uncles" still living in Taiwan. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Follow Michael on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 02:29 - The big macro picture 14:09 - The debt problem in China 20:39 - The fragility of China and the Taiwan conflict 24:57 - Kao's view on supply and demand 31:17 - How does Fed power affect oil? 38:41 - A complicated dynamic 41:54 - Can we actually trust anyone? 45:29 - The shadow banking system and refinancing risk 48:53 - A structural problem 51:59 - Reimagining safe assets 58:27 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| SI305: Building A Hedge Fund Allocation ft. Alan Dunne | 19 Jul 2024 | 01:02:33 | |
Together with Alan Dunne, we take the temperature of the current state of affairs in the U.S. election and how the election impacts the economy and markets. Alan also shares his advice for allocator looking to start a new trend following fund and we discuss how fees are currently the big differentiator in the CTA space, with one manager increasing it's performance fee to 30%. We also discuss the "Dual Mandate of Managed Futures Strategies" and how how different frequencies of skewness affect strategies and delves into the use of "delay" by pure trend managers to smooth returns. We continue our conversation on the topic of Building a Hedge Fund Allocation, diving into the considerations and strategies involved in creating a robust hedge fund portfolio and more. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 01:02 - What has been on our radar recently? 05:38 - How we utilize AI in our own work 09:14 - Price on fossil hit an all time high 09:54 - The FOMO narrative in investing 11:52 - Alan's thoughts on the state of affairs in the U.S. Election 19:50 - An unsustainable path 24:37 - Industry performance update 27:58 - Q1, Ciaran: What are allocators looking for in a new trend following fund? 34:25 - Fees - the big differentiator 38:46 - Key takeaway from the paper "Skew Spectrum" 48:20 - Paper on building a hedge fund allocation 01:00:34 - Thanks for listening Resources discussed in this Episode: Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| SI247: What is Smart Diversification? ft. Nick Baltas | 10 Jun 2023 | 01:09:45 | |
Today, Nick Baltas return to the show for a look at some recent published research papers by our friends over at Quantica and AQR. Despite our technical difficulties with my audio and notes...we discuss the timing and speed of executing trades and the pros and cons of trend following compared to stocks and bonds, how to achieve the best protection whilst maximizing returns during times of trouble in equities or higher interest rates and why short term strategies does not necessarily give you better protection, nor better returns. We also discuss the similarities and differences between trend following and economic trend and the importance of luck, why you get what you pay for in terms of manager performance and much more. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Nick on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 01:10 - What happened this week? 03:24 - Industry performance update 05:07 - Q1, David: About the speed of execution 10:43 - Q2, Oliver: Trend following vs. stocks and bonds 16:08 - A discussion on smart diversification 22:21 - Shorter term strategies = more protection? 25:22 - The role of lookback 29:07 - Paper on economic trend 36:16 - Trend following vs. economic trend 45:18 - Withstanding the pain of long term trend following 54:16 - Capping equity exposure 56:08 - Is fee reduction alpha? 01:02:01 - Does CTA replication models = single manager risk? 01:04:04 - The problems with managed futures indexes 01:07:54 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| GM44: Insights From Inside Credit Suisse ft. Mika Kastenholz | 07 Jun 2023 | 01:03:08 | |
Our guest Mika Kastenholz shares his insights running a global, cross-asset class macro trading business within a major investment bank in this episode. We learn about potential volatility mismatches in the equity index and fixed income markets, distortions in the yield curve caused by regulatory changes, and a general decline in the appetite for risk taking in the banking sector post-2008. Mika also discusses the viability of crisis prediction using quantitative models, and positioning risk in the convertible bond market. This episode offers a rare perspective into the way a major sell side player thinks about risk and opportunity. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Hari on Twitter. Follow Mika on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 02:20 - Introduction to Mika Kastenholz 09:25 - Working with econophysics 10:52 - Finding the perfect size 12:05 - Mika's view on naive sizing 13:19 - The macro perspective 16:27 - Depressed commodities and the inverted yield curve 18:46 - A changing environment 21:01 - The impact of post 2008 regulations 23:29 - Hedging the autocallable structures 29:30 - Mika's approach to convertible bond arbitrage 31:42 - Swing options - a relic of the past? 33:30 - Has the depth of the markets decreased? 35:31 - How does cross margining work today? 36:51 - What happens with a large client trade? 38:59 - Dealing with regulations 42:51 - Are banks too focused on short-term dynamic risk management? 45:48 - What if every bank had the same risk limits? 48:15 - Are the banks aware of network effects? 50:13 - Is the complex systems push overstated? 54:09 - An anomaly that could be exploited? 57:06 - A confused market 59:19 - The outlook for the term premia 01:01:10 - Key takeaways from Niels Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| SI246: The BIG CTA ETF Debate ft. Andrew Beer & Tim Pickering | 03 Jun 2023 | 01:24:56 | |
Today, we are joined by Andrew Beer and Tim Pickering for a heated debate on some of the most important changes that we are seeing in the CTA industry. We discuss how ETFs can be used in the CTA industry and the pros and cons of using indices to represent manager performance, why Tim and Andrew are fundamentally different in how they approach the way retail investors can access CTA strategies and how they disagree on the definition of "pure alpha", the use of replication strategies and much more. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Andrew on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:50 - The macro perspective 03:56 - Industry performance update 06:17 - First CTA to launch a ETF 09:57 - The managed futures index - what and why? 17:40 - Tim's experience with indices 20:15 - Building an asset allocation bucket 22:36 - A discussion on alpha 30:58 - Getting exposure to CTA return streams 37:10 - Why Tim would avoid replication strategies 44:18 - The biggest positions drive performance? 51:45 - Are ETFs reliable? 55:47 - Getting the timing right 01:00:49 - A terrible product? 01:04:26 - Why did Tim's US ETF fail? 01:08:07 - What is alpha? 01:11:00 - Are lower fees better for investors? 01:12:14 - Getting the correlation right 01:13:21 - Question from Oliver 01:15:59 - Teasing the next debate 01:22:38 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| ALO14: Investing for a Decade of Dispersion ft. Clint Stone | 31 May 2023 | 01:12:10 | |
Today we are joined by Clint Stone SVP of Investments at the Larry H Miller Company to hear about running an endowment style investment approach at a family office. We discuss Clint’s approach to asset allocation which is focused on long term capital appreciation. A key pillar of the portfolio is a large allocation to private markets and we discuss the rationals for this. We delve into the foundation’s approach to portfolio construction, how to estimate the volatility of private markets exposures and discuss Clint’s belief that the volatility of a private market portfolio may even be lower than a corresponding public market portfolio. We also talk about the challenge of manager selection, what Clint looks for in managers and why he likes both market neutral long/short equity strategies and directional strategies like global macro and trend following in his absolute return portfolio. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Follow Clint on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 02:48 - Introduction to Clint Stone 07:07 - Their approach to investment 12:12 - A challenging decade for equities? 15:06 - Stone's perspective on equity valuations 18:32 - Building a model and strategy 23:04 - Modelling the risk of a private equity portfolio 30:52 - Getting the correlation right 34:14 - Correlation in economic downturns 39:04 - Building a multi-asset strategy 41:11 - Getting the speed right 44:39 - Stone's approach to trend following 46:34 - Evaluating managers vs. security analysis 49:05 - The search for capacity constraints 52:02 - The challenge of picking managers 53:41 - Working with real businesses 57:52 - What is a good investment process? 01:03:01 - Generalists vs. specialists 01:06:50 - Advice for new allocators Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| SI245: Which CTA Should You Buy ft. Rob Carver | 27 May 2023 | 01:05:03 | |
Rob Carver is back to discuss the economic unpredictability that has defined this year so far and how Rob approaches backtesting his system, how to make a signal continuous in a discrete system and if there are ways to figuring out when is the right time to trend follow. We also unpack what Rob means by “you can’t eat sharpe ratio” and what he would change in his strategy if he had more resources available. We then turn to discuss the CTA industry and how to find out which CTA you should buy, why Niels is skeptical about predicting the performance of a strategy and why you need to know what you don’t know, the absurdity of the debt ceiling and much more. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Rob on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:52 - Update from Rob 07:13 - Calculating slippage and "midprice" 12:41 - Industry performance update 15:26 - Q1, David: About continuous trading signal construction 20:49 - Hidden Markov models - What and why? 27:34 - Q2.1, Elie: Is there value in relative vol targeting for traders who can't take on leverage? 32:37 - Q2.2, Elie: About alternative ways of rebalancing signals 37:49 - Q3, QuantLurk: What would more resources do to your strategies? 42:41 - Which CTA should you buy? 49:12 - Can you really predict the performance of a strategy? 56:08 - You need to know what you don't know 58:36 - The U.S debt ceiling 01:03:09 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| GM43: On the Verge of Recession ft. David Rosenberg | 24 May 2023 | 01:06:12 | |
Join us for a thought-provoking conversation with David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research as we discuss the global macro outlook and why David believes the US economy is on the verge of recession. We examine the parallels between the current economic cycle and past cycles, particularly the 1920s and 1970s, and discuss how past Fed tightening cycles have played out for the economy and asset prices. David lays out his case for why he is sceptical of the narrative that inflation will remain sticky and outlines the key indicators he is monitoring that suggest that the US economy will soon be in recession. We discuss debt, demographics and deglobalization and whether these will inflationary or disinflationary forces over the coming decade. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Follow David on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 03:23 - Introduction to David Rosenberg 08:00 - Rosenberg's research process 11:56 - The importance of historical awareness 25:00 - Disruptions in the demand curve 31:16 - Getting the timing right 43:54 - The longer term trajectory 52:58 - Dealing with high debt levels 57:12 - A shift in the political landscape 01:00:56 - Learning more about global macro 01:05:02 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| TTU144: Turtle Trading 2.0? ft. Brian Proctor, Managing Director at EMC Capital Advisors | 22 May 2023 | 01:07:58 | |
Join us as we sit down with Brian Proctor, Managing Director at EMC Capital Advisors, for an insightful conversation on the evolution of their trading methodology since the early days of the Turtle Program. Discover what sets them apart from competitors and the key factors they believe contribute to a successful CTA. Explore their use of algorithms to balance risk in a volatile market and how trading systems can adapt while staying true to their origins. Gain insights into their approach to managing current market volatility, distinguishing between trend following and momentum, building reliable systems, expanding their market portfolio, and much more. Don't miss this engaging discussion! ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Learn more about EMC Capital Advisors. Episode Timestamps: 02:19 - Introduction to EMC Capital Advisors 07:30 - Their investment philosophy 10:30 - What differentiates them from their peers? 12:33 - The key to succes 14:06 - Their approach to open equity 17:22 - Staying true to trend following 20:13 - Improving the risk adjusted profile 23:15 - An evolving system 28:19 - Slow or fast? 30:44 - Being aware of volatility 32:44 - Trend following vs. momentum 37:19 - "The technical logic of the system" 40:05 - An adaptive process 43:58 - How they reach their goals 45:46 - Pros and cons of adding more markets 50:11 - How they manage risk 57:23 - How have markets changed over time? 01:00:03 - Trend following disagreements 01:03:53 - What is he excited for this year? 01:06:30 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| SI244: Trend Following - How to Hunt them & Select a Manager ft. Richard Brennan | 20 May 2023 | 00:58:00 | |
Richard Brennan returns to discuss the idea of applying trend following on a shorter term time frame and why this might not make sense, the most optimal solutions for selecting managers, how to best avoid selection bias in the process and why the validated track record of a fund manager is so important. We also discuss how the analogy of hunting on the savana can be applied to trend following and what a cheetah and a spider can teach us about hunting trends and much more. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Rich on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:23 - Changes in the podcast format 01:30 - Review of the week 05:03 - Q1, Zach: Regarding the viability of short-term systems 12:48 - A deep dive into manager selection 28:37 - The optimal process and results 30:58 - Diversification in manager selection 33:51 - Hunting the trends 46:29 - The Knowledge Project 55:44 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| GM42: What's Coming for Oil, Gas, Gold & Metals ft. Adam Rozencwajg | 17 May 2023 | 01:18:41 | |
If you're curious about the state of natural resources in today's market, this episode is for you. Our guest Adam Rozencwajg shares his insights on a wide range of topics when it comes to the global commodity markets. Discover why oil is struggling to surpass $80 despite the OIL Put, OPEC's surprise production cuts, and China's reopening. We also explore why US and European Nat Gas prices have yet to converge, and the outlook for Gold as it sits close to all-time highs. Finally, we discuss the future of base metals and what we can expect in the coming months. Don't miss out on this engaging episode! ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Follow Adam on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 02:37 - What has happened since our previous conversation? 06:03 - Making sense of the oil market 10:44 - Signs of a put on the oil market 16:38 - The situation with natural gas 25:13 - Has the gas situation been improved? 32:42 - Nuclear energy - is it a viable solution? 46:51 - The outlook for gold 52:51 - The mechanisms of the capital cycles 01:00:45 - The state of metals 01:04:18 - A metal crisis? 01:06:24 - Centralised commodities and rare earths 01:09:53 - Investing in rare earths 01:12:52 - Considerations for owning gold 01:16:58 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| SI243: Sell in May and Go Away...Really ft. Cem Karsan | 13 May 2023 | 01:07:21 | |
Join us for a conversation with Cem Karsan, where we discuss the likelihood of the US economy going into stagflation and how we are at an interesting inflection point in terms of market risk as we head into the summer. We also get into how panic is akin to death in positioning and how artificial intelligence may affect us as investors. And finally we dig into Cem’s outlook for earnings and price and how passive investing can become uninvestable, things that would make Cem change his bearish view on the economy and markets, the underlying problems of debt in society and much more. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 02:33 - What happened this week? 06:56 - Industry performance update 08:38 - An interesting inflection point 16:29 - The timing of tops vs. bottoms 21:25 - Why are people short today? 25:57 - How will AI affect the middle and upper class? 30:56 - Where are we at in the cycle? 36:11 - Karsan's outlook for earnings 39:25 - Passive vs. Active investing 44:25 - Expectations for OPEX in May 49:18 - What could change Karsan's bearish view? 52:22 - The debt problem 01:01:09 - A society in decline 01:03:46 - Thoughts on Gold 01:05:42 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| GM65: Why Fed Will Raise Rates Next Year ft. Adam Posen | 17 Jul 2024 | 01:02:59 | |
In this episode, Alan Dunne welcomes former central banker and current President of the Peterson Institute, Adam Posen, to discuss the economic outlook and monetary policy. Posen explains why he believes markets are mistaken in expecting rate cuts next year and identifies the key factors driving stronger economic growth. They explore global central banking and monetary policy, examining the successes and challenges of inflation targeting, the models used by central banks, and the most important variables to monitor for policy decisions. Posen also discusses why inflation targeting may become more challenging in the coming years and argues that less forward guidance from policymakers could be beneficial. They discuss the outlook for fiscal policy for the next administration and Posen explains that while a fiscal crisis is not his base case, he foresees significant upside risks to bond yields in the coming years. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Follow Adam on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 02:10 - Introduction to Adam Posen 05:45 - Was it all about luck? 07:40 - Was the Covid19 period handled the wrong way economically? 12:06 - Are we going into more challenging times for inflation targeting? 13:56 - The political pressure on central banks 16:48 - The challenges of inflation targeting 23:47 - A micro-managing nightmare? 29:50 - What are the most important factors for policy makers? 35:16 - The lags of monetary policy 39:47 - How the structure of the economy impacts the monetary transmission mechanism 48:15 - Posen's view on the economy 51:07 - Are central banks inflating the debt away? 53:49 - A Fiscal crisis incoming? 01:00:10 - Artificial Intelligence - a game changer? Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| IL17: The Dangers to Democracy ft. Martin Wolf | 10 May 2023 | 00:54:11 | |
This episode features a discussion with Martin Wolf, the FT’s Chief Economics Commentator and “the world’s preeminent financial journalist”. Wolf’s new book The Crisis of Democratic Capitalism explains why the marriage between democracy and capitalism is breaking down, not from external threats but from within. He expands on these internal threats during our conversation, which he believes have the potential to end US democracy in the coming years and in his book he outlines a range of critical reforms we can undertake to avoid this fate. You won't want to miss this thought-provoking conversation. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book. Follow Martin on Twitter & Read his Book. Episode TimeStamps: 02:23 - Introduction to Martin Wolf 07:45 - Why do capitalism and democracy go so well together? 14:46 - The conflicts between capitalism and democracy 18:43 - Is the risk to democracy global? 23:15 - A changed view after the election? 27:29 - Making process in a divided country 35:00 - A sign of desperation 36:58 - Success takes small steps? 44:35 - The importance of local democracies 50:58 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| SI242: How to Detect when the Trend Changes ft. Mark Rzepczynski | 06 May 2023 | 01:08:28 | |
Today I'm joined by Mark Rzepczynsky following the quarterly meeting of the TBAC in a week where the FED also raised interest rates. We discuss the concept of inertia and how it can be applied to economics and markets, why it is important to have macro awareness whilst being concious of the level of complexity to ensure your model remains robust. We also discuss the idea of "warner vs. warnee" in a crisis situation and how it can cause inefficiency and dislocations in markets, how to respond to economic warnings, the importance of capturing non-linearity in markets and much more. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Mark on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 01:55 - A big week for Chairman Powell? 10:59 - Industry performance update 14:07 - Global macro meets trend following? 19:52 - The spectrum of behaviour 25:47 - Balancing complexity and robustness 30:51 - Being aware of unexpected events in markets 34:31 - It takes two to crisis 39:06 - Are we approaching a de-dollarization? 41:56 - Is price all we need? 50:55 - Why do we need machine learning? 56:39 - Words of estimative probability 01:00:35 - Put the money where your mouth is 01:02:58 - Skew in trend following 01:05:38 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| GM41: Global Macro Face Off ft. Cem Karsan & Alfonso Peccatiello | 03 May 2023 | 01:19:40 | |
If you liked last week’s Global Macro conversation with Cem Karsan you are going to LOVE this epic Macro debate as he and Alfonso Peccatiello, aka MacroAlf, go head to head on the most pressing topics of our time. From inflation and interest rates to De-Dollarization, China, Geo-Politics, Oil, Gold, and more, these two brilliant macro thinkers challenge each other's perspectives in a thought-provoking and engaging conversation. Despite their differences, they also find some common ground. Don't miss this electrifying episode! ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Follow Alfonso on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 02:37 - The big macro picture 04:37 - Inflation from a historical perspective 14:22 - Cycles and trends - how are they different? 18:23 - A sticky situation 21:53 - A wealth of trades? 26:58 - A secular reality 29:17 - The banking situation 35:16 - A build-up effect 38:58 - Buying Puts - A way to lose money? 41:02 - Cyclical vs Secular effects 46:38 - Inflationary pressure in Japan 54:45 - De-Dollarization and changes on the global stage 01:08:14 - The advantage of commodities 01:13:41 - Where is the world heading? 01:17:57 - Final thoughts Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||