REGISTER for Farmland LP's free webinar on Sep 4 @7pmET by emailing ir@farmlandlp.com

One of the asset classes I get the most requests to do an interview on is farmland. It's a form of real estate investment that yields cash flow by producing commodities -- all attractive qualities to investors worried about inflation and/or the loss of purchasing power of fiat currencies. But how does it perform vs other asset classes? And how does one invest in farmland without being forced to become a farmer? For answers, we're fortunate to talk today with Craig Wichner, Managing Director of Farmland LP, which manages over 15,000 acres, farming them sustainably at scale. #farmland #soil #organicfarming

The markets are back to overbought levels in the near term, both stocks and bonds, assesses portfolio manager Lance Roberts. And while he doesn't think an economic calamity necessarily lies ahead, we don't need one to justify a material downward correction in stocks. Stocks are valued based on their earnings forecast, and right now, forecasts are rosy. But there are multiplying signs that trouble lies ahead, especially in terms of consumer spending. If the economy does indeed slow from here, earnings will fall and stock prices will suffer. Right now, stocks are NOT priced for slowing earnings. Lance and I discuss this risk to asset prices, as well as Nvidia's recent earnings, the AI story in general, the struggling majority of American households and Lance's firm's latest trades in this week's Market Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #nvidia #inflation #stockmarketcorrection

Jeremy Grantham is one of the most respected investors alive today. His firm - Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co. -- better known as GMO, manages $billions in assets under management and produces some of the most-followed market analysis on Wall Street. Core to its outlook is that financial and economic extremes will mean revert. And that prudent investors can pro-actively position themselves to benefit greatly from this reversion when it takes place. And while, no, I am NOT interviewing Mr Grantham today, we have the next best thing: the chance to sit down with one of his lieutenants at GMO. John Pease is a quantitative researcher and partner at GMO, who co-authored the firm's latest Quarterly Letter, which I expect to discuss with him in depth. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #stocks #emergingmarkets #investing

To better understand the current economic environment we find ourselves in, it helps to better understand how we ended up here. And few have as detailed an understanding as today's guest, who has been a true insider in both Washington DC and Wall Street for his extremely long & accomplished career. We're fortunate today to speak with former Congressman, economic policymaker & financier, David Stockman. He warns that after decades of profligacy, over increasing our debt 100x since 1970 while only growing our GDP by 25x, we've arrived at a fiscal & monetary "dead end" What does he see ahead? Higher inflation. Recession. Hard times for Main Street. A 50%+ correction for Wall Street. And he expect the pain to last for years because he thinks the Federal Reserve can't ride to the rescue in the same way it has in the past. Follow David at https://www.davidstockmanscontracorner.com/

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #marketcrash #inflation #recession

Since the October lows, stocks have roared back to record highs, and bonds have risen solidly as US 10yr Treasury yields have dropped from 5% to near 4% Will the bull run continue through the rest of 2024? It is an election year in America after all. Or, have the animal spirits carried assets to unsustainable prices, putting us in danger of a painful sell-off? To find out, we have to good fortune to hear from bond expert Alf Peccatiello of The Macro Compass. He predicts that the higher cost of debt brought on by higher interest rates will indeed start causing many over-leveraged companies to start buckling as $2+ trillion in US corporate debt matures between now and end of 2025. Follow Alf at https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ And if an accredited investor interested in learning more about his new macro fund, email Alf at fund@themacrocompass.com

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #bonds #unemployment #recession

When today's guest was on this channel back in December, he explained that rising net liquidity was responsible for the surprisingly strong performance seen in both the economy & the financial markets in 2023.

And he predicted that these net liquidity inflows would continue, leading to even higher asset prices ahead.

Well, here in the final month of Q1 2024, things so far have played out according to his script.So where does he liquidity heading for the rest of the year?

To find out, here's another very important conversation today with Michael Howell, founder & CEO of Crossborder Capital.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#liquidity #stocks #recession

Well, another week, another all-time high in stocks.

Valuations are now stretched to extremes only seen near a bubble top, and volatility is low...too low.

The odds of a pull-back, perhaps a larger correction, are concerningly high enough to make this now a time to hedge your positions, advises portfolio manager Lance Roberts.

In this video, he & I discuss how much more room to run high fliers like Nvidia have, what's happening with bonds, the growing risk of slowing liquidity, the latest (and dumbfounding payrolls jobs data, as well as what trades (if any) Lance's firm made over the past week.

For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this Weekly Market Recap.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#stockmarket #nvdia #jobs

The media is full of reports that the economy is in fine shape due to a "strong" and "resilient" consumer who has held up much better than expected during the recent years of high inflation and high interest rates. But has the average consumer truly shrugged all that off? Or are they in worse shape than we're being told? For a deep dive into the true state of the US consumer, we'll hear today from Neely Tamminga, researcher, professor and co-founder of the retail consulting firm DISTILL.

Follow Neely on X at @neelytamminga or at her website at https://distilladvisory.com/

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#consumer #retirees #millennials

As the stock market trades at all-time highs, is this a great time to continue to ride the bull rally? Or has the getting been too good for too long? Is it instead now a good time to take gains and wait for a correction? Today we'll hear answers to these questions from Chance Finucane, Chief Investment Office at Oxbow Advisors.  Oxbow Advisors is a financial advisory firm founded by Ted Oakley that specializes in the needs of high net worth clients. As Ted's CIO, Chance will share with us what kind of market outlook the firm sees ahead for the rest of the year and how it is positioning its client's assets for it. Among other risks, Oxbow is watching the liquidity situation very closely. Globally, fiscal stimulus grew substantially in 2023. But in 2024, its growth is predicted to be much more anemic -- even negative -- across the world. That could be a game changer, triggering both economic slowdown and a potential market correction. Follow Oxbow at https://oxbowadvisors.com/

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #recession #stimulus #investing

The economy is chugging along at more robust GDP growth than many expected. Inflation has moderated and unemployment remains low. Many, including Wall Street for certain, have bought into the soft landing -- or no landing at all -- narrative. We're in a Golidilocks era they tell us. Bears should stop worrying, admit they've been wrong, and join the party. So, is that truly the case? For answer,s we turn to market analyst Gordon Long of MATASII: Macro Analytics & Technical Analysis Strategic Investment Insight

Follow Gordan at https://matasii.com

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #recession #hardlanding #investing

Investing great Ray Dalio said this week: "The stock market doesn't look very bubbly". But Bank of America just released a new report titled: "The S&P 500 is egregiously expensive" Who's closer to right? Portfolio manager Lance Roberts leans more towards BofA's assessment, though that doesn't mean the current mania in stocks can't run higher. But given that the S&P has risen for 15 out of the past 17 weeks -- a feat not seen since the 1980s -- Lance feels that the current rally is "extremely long in the tooth" and the odds of a correction are elevated. We also talk about inflation, jobs, liquidity flows and the current level of risk commercial real estate poses to the banking system. For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this Weekly Market Recap.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #stockmarket #raydalio #stockmarketcorrection

Inflation has been called the invisible tax. Economist John Maynard Keynes wrote that, through it, "Governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens" in a process that "engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." Which is why it's very important to know what's happening with inflation and where it's headed. But should we rely on government's reported numbers, as distorted as they are by fudge-factors like hedonics and substitution, and possible manipulation for political optics? No, says today's guest, Oliver Rust, co-founder of Truflation, a new blockchain-based real-time inflation calculation service that uses over 10 million data points to yield a more accurate measurement that represents what households actually experience. We'll find out what he thinks the true inflation rate is and where he sees it heading next. Follow Truflation at https://truflation.com/ or on social media at @truflation Email Oliver at oliver@truflation.com

WANT TO PROTECT THE PURCHASING POWER OF YOUR WEALTH? Schedule your free portfolio review with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #inflation #costofliving #prices

Back in 1996, Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan famously said: "How do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions?" It was a prophetic question, as the stock market soon after became caught up in the mania of the DotCom bubble, reaching unprecedented levels of overvaluation followed by a precipitous price correction. The Nasdaq didn't return to its 2000 highs until 15 years later. Many are feeling like it's deja vu all over again with the latest run-up in the small number of stocks, colloquially known as the Magnificent 7, driving the market indices to new record highs. Are we in a new era of irrational exuberance, this time driven by the promise of artificial intelligence? And if so, what's the danger this time of another prolonged contraction ensuing? Contact David at https://evergreengavekal.com/meet-david-hay/ Or subscribe to his Substack at https://haymaker.substack.com/

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #stockmarket #marketcrash #marketcorrection

The real estate market is a tangled mess right now. High vacancies along with higher interest rates and tighter lending standards are wreaking carnage across much of the commercial sector these days. However, higher mortgage rates have NOT brought down residential home prices, at least not on a national average...yet. That said, transactions have frozen up, falling to the lowest level in decades. Where is all this headed? Are things likely to get better, or worse, from here? For answers, we're fortunate to speak with Ivy Zelman today. Ivy is the Executive Vice President and Co-Founder of Zelman & Associates, one of the most respected research firms advising investors and corporate executives on the real estate market over the past 30 years. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #realestate #housingmarket #homeprices

Well, the average home price in America remains just about as unaffordable as it's ever been. In fact, a recent report from real estate data provider ATTOM examined the median home prices last year for roughly 575 U.S. counties and found that home prices in 99% of those areas are beyond the reach of the average income earner. And to add insult to injury, 30-year fixed mortgage rates just rose back above 7%. So, what lies ahead for home prices in 2024? To find out, we welcome housing analyst Nick Gerli, founder of reventure Consulting and creator of the new reventure app back to the program.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #homeprices #housingmarket #housing

The S&P is at yet another record high in a week that saw the second-biggest 1-day gain in market cap in history after Nvidia (NVDA) delighted investors with blowout revenue& earnings growth. The bulls are stampeding hard now and FOMO-driven momentum chasers are back. Stocks remain solidly in short-term overbought territory. Valuation metrics of many companies like price-to-earnings & price-to-sales are being stretched, taffy-like, to extremes rarely seen. Are markets back to 'irrational exuberance'? Or is this just a great time for investors to make gains? Portfolio manager Lance Roberts shares how his firm is navigating the feeding frenzy, as well as what trades he's made over the past week.

SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #nvda #nvidia #bullmarket

One of the most frequent requests from Thoughtful Money viewers is for a discussion focused on investing for income. Well, that's what we're delivering here. Steven Bavaria, author of the book 'The Income Factory: An Investor’s Guide to Consistent Lifetime Returns' joins us to share his framework for constructing a lower-risk portfolio of income-generating assets that include: high dividend stocks, senior bonds, high yield bonds, covered call funds, Master Limited Partnerships, closed-end funds, and more. Follow Steven at https://seekingalpha.com/author/steven-bavaria Or get his book here: https://www.amazon.com/Income-Factory-Investors-Consistent-Lifetime/dp/1260458539

SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #incomeinvesting #dividendstocks #fixedincome

After decades of moving towards increased globalization, the aftermath of the supply-chain vulnerabilities revealed by the COVID pandemic, as well as the geopolitical fallout from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, are pushing the world order into a more fragmented state. If trade globalization has indeed peaked, what does that mean for the future of the major world economies and for asset prices? To address, we're fortunate to be joined by Bob Elliott, former Investment Committee member at Bridgewater Associates and now CEO and CIO of the investment company Unlimited.

Follow Bob on X/Twitter at @BobEUnlimited On YouTube at youtube.com/ @BobEUnlimited  And on LinkedIn at https://www.linkedin.com/in/ttoillebob/

SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #inflation #globalization #investing

Inflation for January rose higher than expected. Is this a one-off blip? Or is it a sign that the remaining inflation in the system is "sticky", and going to prove harder for the Federal Reserve to get under control? Some analysis have been warning that we may be falling into the same trap as we did in the 1970s, which saw a series of rollercoaster surges and drops in inflation until Fed Chair Paul Volker was forced to rise interest rates up to a crippling 20% to get prices under control. Is that kind of pain possibly in our future? To find out, we're fortunate to hear today from Michael Lebowitz, portfolio manager at Real Investment Advice. He works closely with Lance Roberts, who regular viewers see on this channel with me every Saturday.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #debt #inflation #bonds

The S&P 500 is now solidly above 5,000. Stocks have shrugged off "bad" data like higher inflation numbers & disappointing retail sales -- nothing at the moment seems able to dampen Wall Street's euphoria. And little surprise, retail investors are now piling into the markets, eager not to miss the party.

These are classic late-stage signs of a topping market.

Portfolio manager Lance Roberts calculates that a pullback is now highly likely, though he warns he would not be surprised if the S&P ran up another 100 points from here before it arrives. Animal spirits (i.e., investor emotions) are now fully in the driver's seat.

He also shares the many worrisome price and technical divergences he's now seeing that add validation to an impending correction.

And as usual, he shares the trades his firm has made this week.

For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this video.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#inflation #population #recession

Narrative drives so much of the thinking today, especially when it comes to the markets. To prevent becoming unduly influenced by it, it's important to ground ourselves in data. We should ask first: what is the data saying? And then we can judge whether the current prevailing narratives are consistent with it. So, what is the current data telling us? To find out, we're fortunate to speak today with Chris Hamilton, publisher of Econimica. If you're not familiar with the name, I'm confident you've come across a number of the prodigious amount of charts it publishes across a wide range of macro topics like the economy, demographics & the housing market. And the one he's most worried about? Demographics. The USA's population is set to start shrinking for the first time ever by 2035. That's just a little more than 10 years away. Follow Chris at https://econimica.blogspot.com/ Or on Twitter at @Econimica

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #population #demographics #immigration

The officially-reported headline GDP, jobs and inflation numbers look pretty rosy right now. But how much of that is due to actual, healthy sustainable economic activity vs extraordinary government intervention? Deficit spending as a percentage of GDP is currently at heights not seen outside of major wartimes and government jobs have surged, total federal employment reached its highest level in at least 20 years last year. Is the government putting its thumb on the scale here? And if so, is that a good or bad thing? To discuss, we're fortunate to be joined by Michael Green, portfolio manager & chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #stocks #liquidity #recession

According to the official data - be it economic growth, disinflation or jobs -- things could hardly be better. But if you talk to a regular person on the street, they're likely to tell you that times aren't that great, and getting tougher. Why is the prevailing narrative so disconnected from the reality on the ground? And where are things likely to head from here? To tackle this conundrum, we're fortunate to welcome macro analyst and interviewer extraordinaire Grant Williams to the program.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#wealthgap #wealthinequality #liquidity

The S&P finally hit a new all-time high of 5,000 this week.

So does this milestone give the market the green light to rocket higher?

Or is this the right time to lock in recent gains by starting to sell?

Portfolio manager Lance Roberts thinks the latter is more likely, especially as the S&P remains quite overbought here from a technical perspective. Which is why his firm is going to begin selling off positions starting Monday.

He provides the details of his selling strategy in today's Weekly Market Recap.

We also discuss solutions for the unaffordable housing market, Lance's warning to retirees, the US' unsustainable fiscal path, and potential success strategies for job seekers.

For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this video.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#retirement #housingmarket #jobs

When I interviewed today's guest last year1 he said that the forecast of his proprietary model made him about "as bullish as he'd ever been on stocks" heading into Q1 And to give credit where credit is due, his positioning was spot on the money. Both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ increased by 10% in Q1. When I interviewed him again heading into Q2, his model said "stay the course, stay bullish" And again, the S&P rose another 4% in the quarter, and the NASDAQ did even better, rising 8%. So, given this impressive track record, what's his model telling us to expect from here? To find out we'll ask the man himself. Today we have the good fortune of speaking with Darius Dale, founder & CEO of 42 Macro. Darius' model has him turning less bullish as we move from the past Goldilocks regime into a Deflation one. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #investing #deflation #stocks

Markets seem pretty convinced that 2024 is experiencing, in the words of US Treasury secretary Janet Yellen, a soft landing. But what if everyone is wrong? And if they are wrong, which assets are cheap right now and what will happen to the market? Steen Jacobsen, Chief Economist and Chief Investment Officer of Saxo Bank, has been pointedly asking these questions of late. And today, we're going to hear what he thinks the answers are.

Follow Steen at analysis.saxo

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #marketcrash #election #interestrates

A few days ago, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee released its latest policy decision, followed by a press conference by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, and reiterated that it thinks it's making good progress getting inflation under control while protecting the jobs market. Soon after Powell's conference, in a live event available only to Thoughtful Money’s premium Substack subscribers, noted Fed-watcher Axel Merk gave his breakdown of the Fed’s latest guidance, and then fielded live Q&A from viewers. Here’s the replay video of that discussion with Axel. Enjoy!

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #federalreserve #fed #interestrates

The bears had every opportunity to break the markets over the past few years: From a global pandemic with a broad economic shut down, to a resulting 40 year high in inflation followed by the most aggressive rate cycle in history. But the bears failed. The markets are back at all-time highs. And likely to power a lot higher from here, predicts technical analyst Sven Henrich of NorthmanTrader.com, which he knows is an unpopular prediction among those skeptical of today's lofty market valuations. Sven himself doesn't like it! Sven recently released a report titled 'The Cynics Guide To Markets', laying out the rationale for this sanguine market outlook, which I'll ask him to summarize for us in today's conversation. Follow Sven at https://northmantrader.com/

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #bullmarket #federalreserve #stocks

The S&P 500 is back to an all-time high and the NASDAQ is a hairs'-breadth away from the same.

Stocks have started 2024 strong and appear now to be in a positive-feedback loop, where higher prices entice more buyers, leading to still higher prices. Multiple expansion is underway and stocks are remain quite overbought in the short-term.

How much longer can the melt-up last for?

Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and Adam Taggart discuss this, as well as the ramifications of this week's FOMC release and press conference by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, the new (and hard-to-believe) payrolls data, and the revision higher in Q1 GDP forecasted by the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow service.

And, as usual, Lance shares the trades his firm made this week.

Here's the link to the 1970's news coverage Adam mentions in his beached whale story: https://youtu.be/V6CLumsir34?si=k-GiiDds3Rdjbpvc

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#federalreserve #jobsreport #bullmarket

The S&P and Nasdaq are back to all-time highs. And the recently-released Q4 GDP data beat analysts expectations, positively, by a long shot. So are we in the clear? Is the soft landing camp being proven right? Have we been able to side step the Lag Effects so many expected from the Fed's aggressive campaigns of rates hikes and Quantitative Tightening? Is inflation indeed on its way to being tamed this year? For answers, we have the great fortune to sit down today with one of the greatest living economists, Dr. Lacy Hunt, former Senior Economist to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, as well as several of the world's largest global banks. He now serves as Executive Vice President and Chief Economist of Hoisington Investment Management Company.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #recession #inflation #deflation

One of the asset classes I get the most requests to do an interview on is farmland. It's a form of real estate investment that yields cash flow by producing commodities -- all attractive qualities to investors worried about inflation and/or the loss of purchasing power of fiat currencies. But how does it perform vs other asset classes? And how does one invest in farmland without being forced to become a farmer? For answers, we're fortunate to talk today with Craig Wichner, Managing Director of Farmland LP, which manages over 15,000 acres, farming them sustainably at scale.

REGISTER FOR CRAIG'S FREE WEBINAR on Feb 6, 2024 by emailing ir@farmlandlp.com

#farmland #soil #organicfarming

According to the latest government data, the US economy is growing faster than expected, inflation is largely under control, jobs are plentiful and consumer households remain "resilient". So from this perspective, times are good. But talk to real consumers and you hear a very different story. The cost of living is at crippling levels, forcing consumers to stop saving and put an increasing amount of their living costs on revolving credit -- which currently charges record high APRs. Consumers looking for new jobs report the market is not nearly as hungry for workers as the government numbers suggest. Instead, hiring freezes and layoffs are prevalent. From their view, times are tight and getting tougher. Which story is the more accurate one? And should we expect things to get better or worse from here? For answers, we're fortunate to turn to Danielle Park, president and portfolio manager for Venable Park Investment Counsel, Inc, where she manages millions for some of Canada’s wealthiest families. She's also proprietor of the daily financial website JugglingDynamite.com

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #recession #housingmarket #marketcrash

NEW!! SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com The S&P just hit a new all-time high for 5 straight days over the past week. It missed doing so again on Friday by the thinnest of whiskers (0.07%) Portfolio manager Lance Roberts says it’s clear we’re now in what’s called a “bullish stampede” in stocks, where rising prices entice more investors into the market, leading to even higher prices, and so on… It’s a lot of fun if you’re long. But realize that pure emotion is driving the action, not logic. Which is why bullish stampedes tend to be short-lived (a few weeks, maybe) and often end by reversing into a bearish stampede. Should investors try to ride these manic trends for all their worth? Or step aside of the stampede? In this video Lance’s shares his thoughts, as well as the trades his firm made this week. #stocks #bullmarket #bearmarket

A month ago, energy analyst Doomberg published a report titled "Peak Cheap Oil Is A Myth", and a few weeks back, I interviewed him about it. To say it ruffled feathers would be a huge understatement. Those in the Peak Cheap Oil camp have clamored for a chance to respond to Doomberg's claims, and that's exactly what we're going to do here in this video. Today, Adam Rozencwajg, Managing Partner of Goering & Rozencwajg, natural resource investors, sits down for a discussion with Doomberg -- which will moderated by yours truly -- to debate, or better "co-explore", the question: Looking at the next 50 years, is the threat of Peak Cheap Oil fact or overblown fear?

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel, including this interview with Melody. Go to https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ #oil #peakoil #energy

The US real estate market remains frozen.

Transactions are at multi-decade lows, mortgage rates remain painfully high and home prices are at near record-levels of unaffordability.

As we enter 2024, should we expect things to get better for housing, or worse?For answers, we turn to mortgage lending expert & housing analyst Melody Wright, who has been busy visiting many of America's most popular housing markets to develop a true boots-on-the-ground understanding of where the trends are headed.

Melody expects the spring selling season to finally start unlocking "true price discovery" for the US housing market, and predicts a national aggregate price decline as the year progresses.

Follow Melody on X/Twitter at @m3_melody

Or on YouTube at https://www.youtube.com/@m3_melody

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel, including this interview with Melody. Go to https://adamtaggart.substack.com/

#housingmarket #homeprices #realestate

What a week! The unwind of the yen carry trade sent global markets into free-fall on Monday. Equities tanked, as did Bitcoin, oil and gold. US Treasurys jumped, returning to their traditional inverse relationship to stocks. And then...everything reversed. Most due to central bank intervention in Japan, as well as some better than expected jobs data in the US. So, everyone is asking: Is the sell-off over? Is now the time to buy back in? Portfolio manager Lance Roberts doesn't think so (yet). In this week's Market Recap, we discuss why, as well as his outlook for the months ahead and his firm's recent trades. For everything that mattered to markets, watch this week's Market Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #investing #stocks #stevejobs

The S&P 500 index closed at an all-time high yesterday (1.19.24).How much of a bullish signal is that for stocks for 2024?

Maybe not as big of one as many think. Remember, over the past 2 years, stocks have returned 0%.

Stocks are not at oversold reading at this point, meaning that there's not a lot of room to run higher before they become overbought.

Plus, the potential looming challenges of the draining of the Reverse Repo Program (RRP) and the expiry of the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) could pour cold water on the market's euphoria.

To learn more about Lance's event on Sat Jan 27, 2024, go to https://www.eventbrite.com/e/ria-advisors-economic-summit-tickets-703288784687

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel. Go to https://adamtaggart.substack.com/

#stocks #reverserepo #btfp

Rumors are suddenly flying fast and furious that the Federal Reserve will be soon ending its campaign of Quantitiave Tightening (aka QT). This is on top of the 3 rate cuts it recently guided the market to expect in 2024. Is the end of QT indeed imminent? If so what will the implications be? To discuss that, as well as the other major macro trends expected to impact markets most in 2024, we're fortunate to sit down with analyst Jim Bianco, founder of Bianco Research. Jim thinks the Fed is now scrambling to cut rates and end QT because of the brewing potential for a liquidity crisis once the Reverse Repo Program is fully drained.

Follow Jim at https://www.biancoresearch.com/

Or on X/Twitter at  @BiancoResearch 

And check out his new ETF, ticker: WTBN

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel, including this interview with Jim. Go to https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ #reverserepo #inflation #federalreserve

It's a tough time to be an investor.

There are cross-currents galore in the macro data, the financial headlines, policy decision-making, and market technicals.

After the easy decade that followed the Great Financial Crisis where markets dependably churned higher year after year and you could make money just going long pretty much any stock or ETF and "buying the dips" along the way -- suddenly it's taking a lot more hard work to earn a good return.

What are the keys to investing success in today's more uncertain environment?

For guidance, we're fortunate to talk with Andy Constan, founder of the macroeconomic research firm Damped Spring. His work there builds on his earlier tenure at elite firms like Solomon Brothers, Bridgewater and Brevan Howard.

He sees the likelihood of a 'soft landing' as low given today's economic challenges.

And in his explanation, he delivers a detailed summary of how the Reverse Repo Programm (RRP) and the Bank Funding Term Program (BFTP) work.

Follow Andy at https://dampedspring.com/

Or on X/Twitter at @dampedspring

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel, including this interview with Andy.

#bftp #softlanding #reverserepo

The real money in investing is made by those who perceive what the markets are likely to do tomorrow, and then position themselves today to profit from that future action. Today's guest, Lakshman Achuthan, co-founded the Economic Cycle Research Institute specifically to identify these key turning points for investors. Which key turning points are in play right now? And how can we best take advantage of them? Lakshman predicts the slowing growth (e.g., recession) and a return of inflation will be the key themes of 2024. Investors should prepare for both in their portfolio positioning. Follow Lakshman at https://www.businesscycle.com Or on LinkedIN at https://www.linkedin.com/company/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel, including this interview with Lakshman. #recession #inflation #businesscycle

Portfolio manager Lance Roberts has long stated that it's not the inversion of the yield curve that means recession is near, it's when the curve un-inverts. Well, we're now starting to see the first un-inversions. The 2s-30s yield curve has steepened and is no longer inverted. Does that mean the recession countdown has begun? Lance and I discuss this as well as this week's surge in the S&P, the latest on the bond market, the just-released December inflation data, the new Bitcoin ETF, and, as usual, Lances' firm's latest trades. Learn more about Lance's event on Sat Jan 27th in Houston at https://www.eventbrite.com/e/ria-advisors-economic-summit-tickets-703288784687

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel #inflation #yieldcurve #recession2024

How stable is our current system -- economically, geo-politically and socially? The markets seem confident it's quite stable. But you don't have to look that hard to find evidence of stress fractures: from recessionary leading indicators, to struggling consumer households, to the frozen real estate market, to the breakdown of trade through the Red Sea, to the loss of faith in once-premier establishment brands like Harvard, to the polarization and cynicism of this year's US presidential election. What's more likely to happen from here: ascent or breakdown? To discuss, we're fortunate to welcome monetary and macro analyst John Rubino, author and co-author of numerous books including The Money Bubble with James Turk. Sign up for John's Substack at https://rubino.substack.com/

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel #recession #bearmarket #layoffs

Well it's a new year and with it, I'm doing my best to bring important new voices into the discuss here at Thoughtful Money. And today we're fortunate to sit down with one of them: Cem Karsan, Founder, CIO, and Managing Principal of Kai Volatility Advisors, widely known as @jam_croissant on X/Twitter. He's one of the more requested names I've had from this audience and I'm thrilled we've been finally able to make an interview with him happen.And he thinks we're early on in a new secular change that will make the coming decade look and feel very different in the economy, markets and society from what we've become accustomed to over the past several decades.

And in the near term, he sees inflation likely to resume again, in no small part due to the Fed's efforts to engineer a 'soft landing' this year.

Follow Cem at https://www.kaivolatility.com

Or on X/Twitter at @jam_crossaint

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel #stagflation #inflation #recession

Greed and exuberance returned to Wall Street as we ended 2023 and welcomed the start of 2024. Markets are trading near all-time highs, the Fed has switched to singing a more dovish tune, and confidence in a soft landing -- or no landing -- for the economy is high. Did we manage to emerge from all the chaos and distortion of the past few years without a major reckoning? Have we dodged the bullet of recession? For answers, we're lucky to talk today with top Thoughtful Money fan-favorites Stephanie Pomboy, economic & financial analyst and publisher of the respected research firm Macro Mavens.Perhaps more than anything else, she fears our growing culture of moral hazard, metastasizing from Wall Street now into Main Street, may end up being the trigger of the next economic crisis. Follow Stephanie at https://macromavens.com/ Or on X/Twitter at @spomboy

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel #moralhazard #recession #inflation

2024 has seen the worst start to the year for stocks in 20 years. Is this just a natural pullback from overbought extremes, or is there something more worrisome afoot?

Portfolio manager Lance Roberts gives his answer in today's Weekly Market Recap. We also discuss the new payroll report that beat expectations, as well as the different story that appears when looking "under the hood" at the component data.

And as usual, Lance also shares his most firm's most recent trades.

Learn more about Lance's conference on Sat Jan 27, 2024 at https://www.eventbrite.com/e/ria-advisors-economic-summit-tickets-703288784687

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel

#stocks #jobs #investing

Nothing happens in an economy without energy.  And despite the current efforts & hopes to de-carbonize our energy systems, the world remains heavily dependent on oil -- especially as the dominant transport fuel in moving goods from point A to point B. Oil has had a rocky ride the past several years, with its price ranging from a high of $120/barrel to briefly negative prices at the height of the pandemic chaos. Russia's invasion of Ukraine disrupted global trade of oil, and so, to a lesser extent (so far at least), has the resurgence of war in the Middle East. What does 2024 look to have in store for this essential fuel? For answers, we're fortunate to speak with the energy experts at Doomberg today. The exceptional quality of their newsletter has made them the #1-ranked financial Substack in the world, for good reason.

Follow Doomberg at https://doomberg.substack.com/

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel

#oilprice #oil #energy

The Sahm Rule, a widely-monitored recession indicator, triggered on Friday. Some analysts are arguing that it's too early to worry about a slowdown, that the economy is too strong currently. Others warn the US may already BE in recession. So, which is it? For answers, we're fortunate to speak today with Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist for QI Research LLC and author of the book "Fed Up: An Insider's Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America" WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #recession #jobs #labormarket

When I think back on all the experts I interviewed last year, the one whose market predictions played out most accurately is Darius Dale, founder & CEO of 42 Macro. So what do his models tell him is likely to happen in 2024? In this video we ask the man himself.Follow Darius at https://42macro.com/Or on X/Twitter @dariusdale42

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel #bullmarket #stocks #bonds

The past few years have been full of surprises, often going the exact opposite way that Wall Street expected at the start of each year. Well, as we prepare to enter 2024, it may help to tap the expertise of those investors who have been around the longest and been the most successful. High on that list is James Rogers, legendary international investor, financial commentator and author of several best-selling books on wealth-building. In this interview, Jim explains why he believes the next market correction will be the worst of his lifetime, and why he sees higher inflation and higher interest rates ahead, as well.

LAST CHANCE! SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get his Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel. But do so before the price increases on Jan 1st 2024! #inflation #interestrates #bearmarket

We're all aware of how the pandemic threw the economy and financial markets into unprecedented disarray. And for the past two years, investors have eagerly awaited them to return back to a state of normalcy. But has "normal" changed vs the pre-COVID days? How much of the old playbook no longer works well, if at all, in today's world? For answers, we're fortunate to speak today with market veteran Kevin Muir, founder and editor of The Macro Tourist, the highly-acclaimed newsletter that currently ranks as the #12th largest financial Substack in the world. Kevin sees the impact of the ongoing fiscal stimulus as being much more impactful than investors currently understand. In terms of spending into the economy, he thinks the fiscal flood has just begun.

Follow Kevin at https://themacrotourist.com/

Or on X/Twitter at @kevinmuir

TIME IS RUNNING OUT! SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get his Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel. But do so before the price increases on Jan 1st 2024! #recession #inflation #fiscalspending