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The Numbers: Jagmeet Singh rips up the deal — now what?06 Sep 202400:54:49

This week on The Numbers, we break down the implications of Jagmeet Singh's decision to end the supply and confidence agreement between the NDP and the Liberals. What does it mean for the upcoming byelections — and when will the general election be? We also discuss what new polls say about the impact of BCU's withdrawal from the upcoming B.C. election campaign.

In the mailbag, we answer a listener question on how a Trump election win may or may not change Canada's political landscape. Then, Philippe tests me against a machine in the Quiz.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.

A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres



This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe
Ep. #132: B.C.'s election bombshell29 Aug 202400:26:31

With just a few weeks to go before the writ drop, the next election in British Columbia was thrown on its head Wednesday when Kevin Falcon announced he was withdrawing B.C. United from the race — and endorsing John Rustad’s B.C. Conservatives. What does this mean for the NDP and Premier David Eby’s chances of re-election, as well as for the future of the once formidable, now former, B.C. Liberals?

The news broke just after Richard Zussman of Global News and I had recorded an episode about the state of B.C. politics on Wednesday morning. Once it emerged that everything had changed, we had to get together again to re-record. And with B.C. political news breaking so fast, I couldn’t wait until the usual Friday to put this episode up in your feeds.

THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, which will be available for Patreon members on Thursday here, Philippe and I will break down the implications of this move on B.C. politics. We’ll also have lots of new poll numbers to discuss, as usual!

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.



This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe
The Numbers: A turning point in Toronto–St. Paul's28 Jun 202400:52:09

On this week's episode of The Numbers, we discuss what happened in the Toronto–St. Paul's byelection and what it means for the future of Justin Trudeau and the Liberals. We also chat about Naheed Nenshi's landslide win in the Alberta NDP leadership race and provincial premiers' approval ratings.

For the mailbag, we discuss whether Toronto–St. Paul’s was a one-off or not (and we have many more byelection-related questions in the members-only extended mailbag). Then, Philippe harkens back to the 2006 election for the Quiz.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.

A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres

LES CHIFFRES: Est-ce la fin de l’ère Trudeau ? Éric et Philippe discutent de l'élection partielle dans Toronto–St. Paul's lundi dernier, qui fut une cuisante défaite du PLC dans ce qui était considéré comme un château fort libéral depuis trois décennies. Avec de tels résultats, Justin Trudeau peut-il rester en poste ? A-t-il encore la légitimité pour gouverner ? Que nous disent ces chiffres sur l'avance conservatrice au pays ? Et à quoi devrions-nous nous attendre de l'élection partielle à venir dans Lasalle–Émard–Verdun ? Vous pouvez regarder ce balado sur YouTube.



This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe
Ep. #61: Something old, something new, something borrowed, something Green23 Sep 202200:30:53

The 2021 federal election is one the Greens would like to forget, as the party failed to run a full slate of candidates and captured only two seats and 2.3% of the vote. It was a disastrous showing that followed months of internal turmoil.

Now the Greens are trying to find a replacement for former leader Annamie Paul — and haven’t seemed to put their internal divisions behind them. The low-key leadership race features a lot of new faces, one familiar face in former leader Elizabeth May and a concept borrowed from Green parties overseas: co-leaders.

To discuss how the contest is shaping up, on this week’s episode of The Writ Podcast I’m joined by the CBC’s David Thurton, who has been following this race closely.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this discussion on YouTube.



This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe
Episode #60: Pierre Poilievre, Week 116 Sep 202200:44:23

Pierre Poilievre won the Conservative leadership race with more support on the first ballot than any previous leadership candidate for the Conservative Party or its predecessors. It was a big win.

His first week, though, did not go so smoothly after one Quebec MP, Alain Rayes, quit caucus, citing Poilievre’s tone and style of politics as the reason. That the party had to subsequently apologize for text messages sent to party members in Rayes’s riding asking them to call his office to voice their displeasure made Rayes’s point for him.

Meanwhile, at a Liberal caucus retreat in New Brunswick, Justin Trudeau announced new measures meant to provide relief from inflation — an issue Poilievre has been hammering the government over for months. Jagmeet Singh of the NDP was quick to claim credit.

So it’s been a bit of a week.

To discuss it all, I’m joined this week by the CBC’s Aaron Wherry, Shannon Proudfoot, reporter with The Globe and Mail and Supriya Dwivedi, Director of Policy and Engagement at the Centre for Media, Technology and Democracy, and Senior Counsel for Enterprise Canada. Supriya is also the co-host of the Seriously Podcast.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this discussion on YouTube.



This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe
Episode #59: One last look at the Conservative leadership race08 Sep 202200:41:00

The Conservative leadership race will be finally coming to a close on Saturday when the winner will be announced in Ottawa.

The safe bet is that Pierre Poilievre will win — perhaps even on the first ballot. But what will the results mean not only for the consensus front runner, but for Jean Charest, Leslyn Lewis, Roman Baber and Scott Aitchison?

Does it matter if Poilievre wins on the first ballot? What’s next for Charest should he lose? What will the results mean for Lewis and the social conservative wing of the party? And did Baber and Aitchison succeed in what they set out to do by launching their long-shot candidacies?

To answer these questions and lots more, I’m joined this week by Tim Powers of Summa Strategies, Chad Rogers of Crestview Strategy and Stephanie Levitz of the Toronto Star.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this discussion on YouTube.



This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe
Episode #58: The Quebec writ drops02 Sep 202200:34:08

On Sunday, François Legault officially kicked off his re-election campaign in Quebec. Voters will be going to the polls on October 3 in an election that is Legault’s to lose.

But despite his party’s big lead in the polls, there’s still a lot at stake in this election campaign. The Coalition Avenir Québec needs to avoid any mistakes that could get in the way of a victory while the old governing parties, the Liberals and Parti Québécois, need to avoid catastrophe.

Québec Solidaire and the Conservatives, meanwhile, are looking to make a lasting impression.

Joining me this week, and for every week for the rest of the campaign, is Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada.com. Starting next week, Philippe will join me for subscriber-only bonus episodes, but he’s here this week to break down the first days of this campaign.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this discussion on YouTube.



This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe
Episode #57: Busy fall season for the Liberals26 Aug 202200:32:20

The next few weeks are going to be pretty important ones for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his Liberal government.

The Conservative Party is about to name a new leader in (probably) Pierre Poilievre, who could turn out to be the most formidable political opponent Trudeau has faced since Stephen Harper.

Parliament is about to return to work in the House of Commons as the Liberals continue their balancing act of keeping their minority government afloat with the support of Jagmeet Singh and the New Democrats.

And, if the Coalition Avenir Québec is re-elected in early October, Trudeau’s on-again/off-again relationship with Premier François Legault looks set to endure.

To give us his take on what challenges — and opportunities — the Trudeau Liberals face this fall, I’m joined this week by Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara and former director of research and advertising in the Prime Minister's Office. He's also polled for the Trudeau Liberals in each of the last three election campaigns.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this discussion on YouTube.



This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe
Episode #56: Let's take some questions19 Aug 202200:52:32

This week on The Writ Podcast, I’m handing the hosting job over to you and answering your questions!

Earlier this week, I reached out to founding members of The Writ and other subscribers who have been supporting me since Day 1 to solicit questions about politics — federal, provincial and municipal.

I received some great ones and I’ve tried to answer them all. When I couldn’t, I’ve asked some special guests to join me.

Here’s a sampling of some of the questions tackled in this episode:

- What’s the future for Justin Trudeau as leader of the Liberal Party?
- What does the data say about where the Green Party is headed?
- Is British Columbia swinging to the left?
- Could Danielle Smith’s Alberta Sovereignty Act pass constitutional muster?
- How could the Saskatchewan NDP ever return to government?
- If I could cover any election in Canada’s history, which would it be?

There’s lots more in the podcast, and thanks to special guests Aaron Wherry, David Coletto, Sally Housser and Martin Olszynski for lending their expertise!

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also listen to this podcast on YouTube.

To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here.



This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe
Episode #55: Changes coming in British Columbia12 Aug 202200:30:13

This year is turning out to be one of great change in British Columbia politics.

In power since 2017, Premier John Horgan announced at the end of June that he would be stepping down. His replacement will be named in December.

On the opposition benches, the B.C. Liberals not only named Kevin Falcon their new leader in February, they might also find a new name, too.

It means when the next election in the province occurs in 2024 (or earlier), the political landscape in B.C. will be very different from what it was in 2020, when Horgan called an early election in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Richard Zussman covers the provincial legislature in Victoria for Global BC and joins me this week on The Writ Podcast to break down all the latest in west coast politics.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this discussion on YouTube.



This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe
Episode #54: Pierre Poilievre breaks the bank and Elizabeth May wants back in05 Aug 202200:37:23

It’s a tale of two leadership races.

The Conservatives look likely to settle on Pierre Poilievre as their next leader based on newly-published fundraising figures. While he’s been around the party for his entire adult life, he will nevertheless take the Conservatives in a new direction — and apparently fill the party coffers in the process.

The Greens, on the other hand, might just head in reverse. After resigning as leader of the party in 2019, Elizabeth May is considering a return to the party’s top job as it searches for a replacement for Annamie Paul. But is Elizabeth May what the Greens, who are stagnant in the polls and struggling to raise money, really need to take them forward?

Joining me on The Writ Podcast this week to discuss these two leadership races is the CBC’s Aaron Wherry.

The Writ is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this discussion on YouTube.

To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here.



This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe
Episode #53: Can Alberta's UCP stay united?29 Jul 202200:29:36

When the Wildrose and Progressive Conservative parties merged to form the United Conservative Party of Alberta, it was always going to be an open question whether the new entity could remain as united as its name suggested.

The rise of the right-wing, populist Wildrose Party was a reaction to the growing anger and fatigue with the PCs, who governed Alberta for an uninterrupted period stretching from 1971 to 2015. But after the PCs were booted from office, the two rival parties became aligned in their opposition to Rachel Notley’s NDP government.

Merged and under the leadership of Jason Kenney, the UCP defeated the NDP in 2019. Mission accomplished. But little more than three years later, Kenney is on his way out as leader and the party is already at a crossroads as it tries to find his replacement and avoid defeat in next spring’s election.

The Writ is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

On this week’s episode of The Writ Podcast, I’m joined by Elise von Scheel, CBC politics reporter in Alberta, to break down who is in the running to lead the United Conservative Party and what happened in Wednesday’s leadership debate in Medicine Hat.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this discussion on YouTube.

To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here.



This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe
Episode #52: Summer politics, from Poilievre to Trudeau22 Jul 202200:42:43

Politics doesn’t take a summer vacation.

In the Conservative leadership race, Pierre Poilievre seems to be cruising toward a victory in September but Jean Charest isn’t throwing in the towel just yet. What will the results mean for the future of the party?

For the Liberals, the summer hasn’t been going great. From passports to airports and Ukraine, various problems keep dogging the government. Will this just be a summer Justin Trudeau will want to forget or the first signs of serious trouble?

This week on The Writ Podcast to discuss all this (and more), I’m joined by journalist Shannon Proudfoot and Supriya Dwivedi, Director of Policy and Engagement at the Centre for Media, Technology and Democracy, and Senior Counsel for Enterprise Canada. She’s also the co-host of the Seriously Podcast.

(Note: The news that Pierre Poilievre isn’t interested in attending the third Conservative debate came out after we recorded.)

The Writ is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch my discussion with Supriya and Shannon on YouTube.

To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here.



This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe
Ep. #128: Poll deep dive with David Coletto, byelection edition21 Jun 202400:32:13

With the high-stakes byelection in Toronto–St. Paul’s on Monday, I invited David Coletto, chair and CEO of Abacus Data, to come back on the podcast to do another polling deep-dive — this time on on where things stand in Toronto and beyond.

Armed with reams of polling data, we take a look at Battleground Toronto, as well as Justin Trudeau’s standing among various demographic groups across the country as speculation about the future of his leadership continues. We also compare where the polls stand, 16 months out from the next election, to where polls stood at this point in the calendar before the 2015, 2019 and 2021 campaigns.

THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, available for Patreon members here, we discuss the set of polls that suggest (as expected) that the Liberals are not in the midst of a comeback — quite the opposite. We also make our over/under bets on Monday's Toronto–St. Paul's byelection. Will the Conservatives pull off an upset? Then, we chat about the results of the Tuxedo byelection in Manitoba and a new poll out of British Columbia. We answer questions from the mailbag (could we be replaced by AI?) and Philippe has a tough quiz for me.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.



This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe
The Writ Podcast en français!18 Jul 202200:17:34

Don’t adjust your podcast player — The Writ Podcast is coming to you in French! When Philippe J. Fournier joined me for our chat about the Quebec election last week, I thought we’d test out a shorter podcast in French to see if there is any interest. If you don’t speak French, don’t worry, we covered the same territory in English in Friday’s episode.

The Writ will be back to its regularly scheduled English-language programming later this week.

La campagne électorale au Québec sera officiellement lancée dans moins de deux mois. Les sondages suggèrent que la Coalition Avenir Québec de François Legault est sur la bonne piste pour gagner un deuxième mandat majoritaire. Par contre, il reste encore de grandes questions auxquelles il faudra attendre les résultats du 3 octobre.

Philippe J. Fournier de Qc125.com me rejoint sur le podcast pour parler de la course électorale — en français!

Veuillez me faire parvenir vos commentaires si vous aimeriez voir plus de podcasts en français pendant la campagne électorale. Merci!



This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe
Episode #51: Quebec election preview15 Jul 202200:38:50

In less than two months, Quebec’s election campaign will officially be underway. While the polls suggest that François Legault’s Coalition Avenir Québec is on track for a big majority victory, there are still some big questions that have to be answered when voters cast their ballots on October 3.

First among these is whether or not the CAQ can cruise to a win. Does the party have any vulnerabilities that could trip it up between now and election day?

Can the Quebec Conservatives finally make a breakthrough after surging in the polls? What’s next for Québec Solidaire, and what will the results say about the future of both the Quebec Liberals and the Parti Québécois?

The Writ’s subscription rates will be increasing next week. Subscribe and lock in your lower rate today!

To break down the state of the race, this week on The Writ Podcast I’m joined by Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada.com. You can also check out Philippe’s work at Politico and L’actualité.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch my discussion with Philippe on YouTube.

To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here.



This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe
Episode #50: Down goes Patrick Brown07 Jul 202200:35:51

With the disqualification of Patrick Brown from the Conservative leadership race being a fast-paced and developing story, I decided to post this week’s episode of The Writ Podcast as soon as it was ready to go rather than wait until Friday morning.

And what a story it is. Late on Tuesday night, Patrick Brown was booted from the Conservative leadership contest for his campaign’s alleged breaking of the rules that govern political financing. Brown denies the allegations and puts the blame on Pierre Poilievre’s campaign for engineering his ouster.

This story is far from over, as it appears Brown might go to the courts to challenge his disqualification. Meanwhile, the other campaigns need to re-calibrate and figure out where they go from here.

There’s a lot to discuss. So, this week I’m joined by Tim Powers of Summa Strategies, Chad Rogers of Crestview Strategy and Catherine Cullen, senior reporter with CBC News, to break it all down.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch my discussion with Catherine, Tim and Chad on YouTube.

To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here.



This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe
Episode #49: Doug Ford and his new blue-collar base in Ontario24 Jun 202200:30:16

Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives made a big play for labour support in the Ontario election.

And it appears to have paid off.

The PCs were able to win seats away from the New Democrats in places like Windsor, Hamilton and northern Ontario, regions the NDP has traditionally been able to count on from one election to the next. The PCs also received a series of labour endorsements, setting off a narrative of a fracturing of labour support for the New Democrats as the PCs make inroads into a new electorate.

What does it all mean for the future of politics in Ontario?

Earlier this year, Larry Savage, a professor in the labour studies department at Brock University, came on the podcast to discuss how the labour vote was shaping up ahead of the Ontario election. Now, he’s back to discuss what happened — and what it means for the Ontario PCs and NDP going forward.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch my discussion with Larry on YouTube.

To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here.



This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe
Episode #48: New Brunswick's hot political summer17 Jun 202200:33:15

Voters in two ridings in New Brunswick are heading to the polls on Monday in a byelection that will kick-off a busy political summer in the province.

Miramichi Bay–Neguac and Southwest Miramichi–Bay du Vin were vacated last year when their two MLAs, one a Liberal, the other a Progressive Conservative, quit provincial politics to take a run at federal office. As a result, these two neighbouring ridings will test the political waters in New Brunswick two years into Premier Blaine Higgs’s majority mandate.

Not only will the popularity of his PC government be put to the test, but we’ll also get our first signs of the impact of the (temporary) dissolution of the People’s Alliance, a populist party whose two MLAs crossed the floor to join the PC government earlier this year.

The Miramichi area just happens to be an area of strength for the People’s Alliance. Will their voters flock to the PCs, are stick with the new iteration of the People’s Alliance?

Then, in August the Liberals will be choosing their new leader. Whoever it is will take over a party running roughly even in the polls with the governing PCs. There are also questions over what’s next for the seatless NDP as their leader steps down (again).

So, lots to talk about.

The Writ is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

To break it all down, I’m joined this week by the CBC’s provincial affairs reporter in New Brunswick and author of The Right Fight, Jacques Poitras.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch my discussion with Jacques on YouTube.

To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here.



This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe
Episode #47: What the big numbers in the Conservative leadership race mean10 Jun 202200:44:27

With the deadline for eligibility now gone, it’s time for the Conservative leadership contestants to start converting members, both old and new, into voting supporters. But with a pool of more than 600,000 members, this race has suddenly gotten much, much bigger than it has ever been before.

Though, with Pierre Poilievre’s campaign claiming half of those members, is there much of a race left to run? Do Patrick Brown and Jean Charest still have a path to victory? And what role could Leslyn Lewis still play?

To discuss what the numbers mean and what’s next for the leadership contest, I’m joined this week by Tim Powers of Summa Strategies, Chad Rogers of Crestview Strategy and Stephanie Levitz of the Toronto Star.

The Writ is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch my discussion with Stephanie, Tim and Chad on YouTube.

To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here.



This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe
Episode #46 - A last look at the Ontario polls31 May 202200:53:00

With just a few days to go before voting day in Ontario’s election, friend-of-the-show Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada.com is back to join me in a provincial tour of the battlegrounds and ridings to watch on Thursday night.

Will Steven Del Duca’s Liberals or Andrea Horwath’s New Democrats emerge as the official opposition? Can Mike Schreiner’s Greens win that coveted second seat? And is there anything that could get in the way of Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives winning the majority government that the polls suggest is well within their grasp?

The Writ is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch my discussion with Philippe on YouTube.

To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here.



This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe
Episode #45: Brown & Charest vs. Poilievre27 May 202200:28:07

The Conservatives met in Laval, Quebec on Wednesday for the final debate before the June 3rd leadership cut-off. With the debate taking place entirely in French, and three of the candidates doing no more than reading from prepared notes, it was really a contest between Pierre Poilievre, Jean Charest and Patrick Brown.

Or, to be more accurate, between Poilievre and a tag-team of Charest and Brown.

The Writ is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

To discuss what happened in the debate and what it could mean for the leadership contest going forward, I’m joined this week by Stéphanie Chouinard, political science professor at the Royal Military College in Kingston, Ontario.

In addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch my discussion with Stéphanie on YouTube.

To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here.



This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe
Episode #44: Is the Ontario election on cruise control?20 May 202200:36:35

With less than two weeks to go before election day in Ontario, David Coletto of Abacus Data and Sabrina Nanji of Queen’s Park Observer are back to discuss the latest on the campaign trail, including the impact of Andrea Horwath and Mike Schreiner testing positive for COVID-19, what to make of Steven Del Duca’s chances of winning his own riding and why Doug Ford is running such a low-key campaign.

David also gives us a sneak peek at some exclusive polling on who won — or didn’t win — Monday’s leaders debate.

The Writ is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

In addition to listening to the episode here or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch my discussion with Sabrina and David on YouTube.

To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here.



This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe
Episode #43: The Conservative sad trombone debate13 May 202200:47:32

It wasn’t the nasty affair that we saw last week, but Wednesday’s Conservative leadership debate still had its moments — and sound effects! It was like a game show, and like a game show there will only be one winner.

Pierre Poilievre entered the debate as the front runner, chased by the likes of Jean Charest, Patrick Brown and Leslyn Lewis. Unlike the first debate, though, this was not a head-to-head match between Poilievre and Charest. Instead, there were entire stretches of the debate in which Poilievre could do nothing but stand on the sidelines as the audience sat riveted by the epic duel between Roman Baber and Scott Aitchison over their agreed positions on what to do with Canada’s North.

Can such a scattershot debate have much of an impact on this Conservative leadership contest?

The Writ is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

To discuss what happened at the debate in Edmonton, as well as chat about some of the broader implications of the ongoing Ontario provincial election campaign, I’m joined this week by the CBC’s Aaron Wherry and Shannon Proudfoot, Ottawa bureau chief for Maclean’s.

In addition to listening to the episode here or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch my discussion with Shannon and Aaron on YouTube:

To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here.



This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe
The Numbers: Don't call it a comeback yet, Liberals14 Jun 202400:48:55

On this week's episode of The Numbers, we discuss a new poll that puts the gap between the Conservatives and the Liberals at the smallest its been in months. We also chat about some new polls out of Atlantic Canada, Ontario and Quebec, and an upcoming byelection option for Naheed Nenshi in Alberta. We answer a question on the Toronto–St. Paul's byelection and Philippe has more trivia for me in the Quiz.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.

A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres

LES CHIFFRES: Le Parti québécois a gagné l'année parlementaire à Québec Cette semaine au balado Les chiffres, Éric et Philippe discutent des deux récents sondages québécois des maisons Léger et Pallas Data. Le PQ mène toujours, la CAQ stagne, les libéraux demeurent au plancher et QS traverse sa crise sans trop de dommages. Il est aussi question d'un sondage de la firme Segma Recherche pour la ville de Gatineau. Vous pouvez regarder ce balado sur YouTube.



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Episode #42: Doug Ford's election to lose06 May 202200:32:26

The writs have been dropped (hey, you don’t know, someone might have plopped them on a table) and the Ontario election is off and running, with voters casting their ballots on June 2.

Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives are looking to be re-elected with a majority government and are ahead in the polls, chased by Steven Del Duca’s Liberals and, in third, Andrea Horwath’s New Democrats.

The Writ is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

To help set up the stakes for each of these parties and what they need to do over the next four weeks, I’m joined by David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data, and Sabrina Nanji, who writes the Queen’s Park Observer newsletter.

In addition to listening to the episode here or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch my discussion with David and Sabrina on YouTube:

To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here.



This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe
Episode #41: Patrick Brown's nuclear submarine campaign29 Apr 202200:35:20

When 5 PM rolls around, we’ll know who is going to be on the ballot in the Conservative leadership race.

That’s the deadline for candidates to submit 500 signatures from members spread across the country, a $200,000 entry fee and a $100,000 compliance deposit. It’s not a threshold that weeds out any serious contender, but it can be too much for those who, let’s face it, don’t have a real shot.

In the end, this contest is probably going to come down to one of the four main contenders: Pierre Poilievre, Jean Charest, Patrick Brown and Leslyn Lewis.

Poilievre is the consensus front runner. But is his main rival not Jean Charest, the former Quebec premier, but instead Patrick Brown, the former leader of the Ontario PCs?

To discuss all the latest in the Conservative leadership race, I’m joined this week by Tim Powers of Summa Strategies, Chad Rogers of Crestview Strategy and the CBC’s Catherine Cullen.

In addition to listening to the episode here or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch my discussion with Tim, Chad and Catherine on YouTube:

To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here.



This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe
Episode #40: Macron vs. Le Pen, Part Deux22 Apr 202200:29:59

A big and important vote is taking place on Sunday, as the second round of the French presidential election will be decided between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen.

The polls give Macron the edge, but his advantage over the right-wing Le Pen has shrunk since they last faced-off against one another in 2017. What’s behind this closer race, and what could a victory by either Macron or Le Pen mean for France, Europe and the rest of the world?

The Writ is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

To answer these questions on this week’s episode of The Writ Podcast, I’m joined by Raphaël Bouvier-Auclair, Radio-Canada’s correspondent in Paris.

In addition to listening to the episode here or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch my discussion with Raphaël on YouTube:

To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here.



This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe
Episode #39: Poilievre's crowds and Trudeau's budget15 Apr 202200:37:29

Last week’s federal budget marked the first budget since the 2021 federal election and the first test of the deal struck between the Liberals and New Democrats that could keep Justin Trudeau in office until 2025.

What does the budget say about both this deal and the plans for Trudeau’s third term in office?

Meanwhile, the Conservative leadership race has been heating up as candidates go on the attack — Charest vs. Poilievre, Poilievre vs. Brown, and everyone avoiding saying anything critical of Leslyn Lewis in hopes of getting the second-choice support of her backers.

The Writ is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

To discuss all of this, this week I’m joined by the CBC’s Aaron Wherry and Supriya Dwivedi, Director of Policy and Engagement at the Centre for Media, Technology and Democracy, and Senior Counsel for Enterprise Canada.

In addition to listening to the episode here or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch my discussion with Supriya and Aaron on YouTube:

To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here.



This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe
Episode #38: Doug Ford in the driver's seat08 Apr 202200:26:29

In just a little over three weeks, the Ontario election will be officially launched and in a little less than eight weeks we’ll know who the winner is. At the moment, the polls suggest Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives are on track to be re-elected.

There have been a lot of new developments as the election gets closer and closer. Candidates are being nominated, political ads are hitting the airwaves and the reverberations out of Ottawa, be it a new child care agreement or the Liberal-NDP governing deal, are being felt in Toronto.

To go through all the latest, I’m joined again this week by Sabrina Nanji of Queen’s Park Observer. You can check out her newsletter on everything Ontario-politics here.

MONDAY NIGHT LIVESTREAM!

Join me and 338Canada.com’s Philippe J. Fournier on Monday night at 8 PM ET for live coverage of the Quebec byelection results in Marie-Victorin. You’ll find the livestream here. Be there and be square!

In addition to listening to the episode here or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch my discussion with Sabrina on YouTube:

To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here.



This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe
Episode #37: How the Liberal-NDP deal changes the Conservative leadership race01 Apr 202200:37:58

When the Conservatives launched their leadership race earlier this year, the date to name a leader was set with at least one factor in mind: the need to have a leader in place in case the party headed into an election in the fall.

But now that the Liberals and New Democrats have signed a deal that could extend the life of this Parliament to 2025, the Conservative leadership campaign’s urgency has changed.

Has that changed the race itself?

To break down the latest developments in and around the Conservative leadership contest, I’m joined again by Chad Rogers of Crestview Strategy and Tim Powers of Summa Strategies.

In addition to listening to the episode here or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch my discussion with Tim and Chad on YouTube:

To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here.



This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe
Episode #36 - How the Liberal-NDP agreement could change everything25 Mar 202200:38:01

It’s not always easy to recognize when something big is happening — something that could be remembered for a long time as a turning point.

Could the Liberal and NDP confidence and supply agreement be that kind of turning point?

Since 2004, Canadians have elected minority governments in five of seven federal elections and we’ve had majority government for only eight of the last 18 years. If minority governments have become the rule rather than the exception, the way we do politics in Canada might have to change.

This agreement between the Liberals and the NDP could be the first try at that — or it could turn out to be a complete mess. Whatever happens, it will have huge implications not only for the future of the Liberals and the NDP (and their leaders), but potentially for the Conservatives, too.

With so much to unpack, on this week’s episode of The Writ Podcast I’m joined again by the CBC’s Aaron Wherry. You can read his recent analysis on the Liberal and NDP agreement here.

In addition to listening to the episode here or on other podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch my discussion with Aaron on YouTube:

To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here.



This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe
Episode #35 - Kenney vs. Jean, Part 218 Mar 202200:31:04

On Tuesday, voters in the riding of Fort McMurray–Lac La Biche elected Brian Jean as their next MLA, the latest development in a political drama that could cost Premier Jason Kenney his leadership.

Running as a United Conservative Party candidate, Jean was always the heavy favourite to win the seat. But this is not necessarily a win for the governing United Conservatives, as Jean was — like all other candidates on the ballot — opposed to Jason Kenney’s government.

Kenney’s rival for the UCP leadership in 2017, Jean is pushing for the UCP membership to vote out Kenney at a leadership review in Red Deer on April 9. The stakes couldn’t be higher for the future of Kenney and the UCP.

To break down all the latest in this story, I’m joined this week by Elise von Scheel, the CBC’s politics reporter in Calgary. (Elise also produced and appeared with me on The Pollcast podcast back in the day.)

In addition to listening to the episode here or on other podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch my discussion with Elise on YouTube:

To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here.



This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe
Episode #34 - Poilievre gets some competition11 Mar 202200:40:40

A lot can change in two weeks in politics.

The rules of the Conservative leadership race are now set and the contours of the contest are starting to come into focus as a number of candidates throw their hats into the ring.

There will be no coronation for Pierre Poilievre, as Leslyn Lewis and Jean Charest (along with Roman Baber) declare their candidacies and Patrick Brown might not be far behind. While some other names could be included in the mix, Poilievre, Lewis, Charest and Brown could be your potential Top Four.

With so much to discuss I had to bring Tim and Chad back right away.

Chad Rogers is a founding partner at Crestview Strategy and Tim Powers is chairman of Summa Strategies.

In addition to listening to the episode here or on other podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch my discussion with Tim and Chad on YouTube:

And if you missed it, earlier this week I posted an explainer video on the rules and dynamics of the Conservative leadership race. Check it out below:

To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here.



This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe
Episode #33 - T-90 for Ontario election launch04 Mar 202200:25:20

With just 90 days to go before election day in Ontario, the parties at Queen’s Park are already in campaign mode. But, the legislature is still sitting — and will keep sitting for another two months or so.

The Ontario Progressive Conservatives seem to be planning to use every day to their advantage, running advertisements and pushing the budget date to the end of April, just before the writs will be dropped for the election campaign.

To break down all the latest developments in and around Queen’s Park — including who is considering a bid for the federal Conservative leadership — I’m joined again by Sabrina Nanji of Queen’s Park Observer. You can check out her site below:

In addition to listening to the episode here, on Apple Podcasts or on Spotify, you can also watch my discussion with Sabrina on YouTube:

To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here.



This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe
Ep. #127: Wild times in B.C. politics07 Jun 202400:31:07

The last two weeks in B.C. politics have been frenetic ones. First, B.C. United leader Kevin Falcon revealed that the B.C. Conservatives had pulled out of negotiations meant to prevent a vote-split that could re-elect David Eby’s NDP government. Then, the Conservatives announced that one BCU MLA, and then a second, were crossing the floor to join John Rustad’s party.

It’s a lot of high drama with little more than four months to go before British Columbia’s provincial election in October, so this week I’m joined by Richard Zussman, Global News legislative reporter in Victoria, to break it all down.

THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, available for Patreon members here, we talk about the news out of Ottawa on the reduction in the Bank of Canada's interest rate, as well as a new report on foreign interference. Will anything move the polls? Plus, with two floor-crossings in British Columbia, is B.C. United finished? We also chat about new provincial polls out of Quebec and Alberta, and answer questions from the mailbag. To close, Philippe tests me with a competition-level Quiz.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.



This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe
Episode #32 - Poilievre vs. Charest?25 Feb 202200:39:43

We’re still waiting to find out when the next leader of the Conservative Party will be chosen and what requirements will need to be met by prospective contestants.

But we do know that Ottawa-area MP Pierre Poilievre says he is running and that a number of other candidates — including former Progressive Conservative leader and Quebec premier Jean Charest — are mulling a bid.

This will be the third Conservative leadership race in five years. Throughout the long contest back in 2017, I was joined by Tim Powers and Chad Rogers on The Pollcast, the podcast I then hosted at the CBC. The podcast wasn’t running anymore when the 2020 leadership race was taking place, but now that we’re in yet another campaign, it’s time to get the band back together!

So, joining me on this week’s episode of the podcast is Chad Rogers of Crestview Strategy and Tim Powers of Summa Strategies.

In addition to listening to the episode here, on Apple Podcasts or on Spotify, you can also watch my discussion with Tim and Chad on YouTube:

To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here.



This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe
Episode #31 - The politics of the protest18 Feb 202200:31:22

The protesters who have blockaded borders and occupied Ottawa over the last few weeks have had real impacts on the lives of those who depend on cross-border trade and those who live in the nation’s capital.

They have also had an impact on politics in this country, changing Canadians’ views of both the prime minister over his handling of the crisis and the Conservative Party over the positions they have taken on pandemic restrictions and the protests themselves.

Even if the protests die down or are put down, they will leave traces in politics for months, perhaps even years, to come.

So, to help me make some sense out of how this is impacting partisan politics in Canada, I’m joined by David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data, on this week’s episode of The Writ Podcast.

In addition to listening to the episode here, on Apple Podcasts or on Spotify, you can also watch my discussion with David on YouTube:

To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here.



This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe
Episode #30 - Saskatchewan politics update11 Feb 202200:32:53

On Tuesday, voters in the northern Saskatchewan riding of Athabasca will be heading to the polls in a provincial byelection. This came about after NDP MLA Buckley Belanger resigned the seat to run for the federal Liberals in the last election. That run wasn’t successful, and now the New Democrats are hoping to hold a seat they have only lost once since 1975.

This vote comes just days after Premier Scott Moe announces a lifting of proof-of-vaccination requirements in the province.

To discuss the upcoming byelection and the state of politics in Saskatchewan, I’m joined today by Adam Hunter, the provincial affairs reporter for the CBC in Regina.

In addition to listening to the episode here, on Apple Podcasts or on Spotify, you can also watch my discussion with Adam on YouTube:

To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here.



This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe
Episode #29 - Conservatives look for a leader, again04 Feb 202200:38:22

Things escalated quickly this week, with Erin O’Toole losing a caucus vote on Wednesday that cost him his leadership of the Conservative Party. O’Toole is out, Candice Bergen is in as interim leader and a new leadership contest — the third since 2017 — is about to get under way.

There’s a lot to discuss here. What led to Erin O’Toole’s swift and sudden downfall? What does this mean for the Conservative Party going forward? And what kind of candidate has the best shot at being O’Toole’s successor?

To help me sift through all this, on this episode of The Writ Podcast I’m joined by the CBC’s Aaron Wherry. Read his analysis of the leadership drama.

The Writ is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

In addition to listening to the episode here, on Apple Podcasts or on Spotify, you can also listen to the discussion between myself and Aaron on YouTube (the video quality didn’t work out this time, so it’s audio only this week):

To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here.



This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe
Episode #28 - The evolving role of labour in Canada's elections28 Jan 202200:31:38

In the last federal election, Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole made a play to woo working class voters to his party — a party that has not always been a friend to organized labour.

Then, last fall Ontario Premier Doug Ford announced a minimum wage hike with labour leaders in attendance.

So, what’s going on with the labour vote?

To help explain the role of organized labour in past and future elections, on this episode of The Writ Podcast I’m joined by Larry Savage, a professor in the department of labour studies at Brock University. His research focuses on the politics of organized labour in Canada, including electoral strategy and the nature of party-union relationships.

In addition to listening to the episode here, on Apple Podcasts or on Spotify, you can also watch the discussion between myself and Prof. Savage on YouTube:

To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here.



This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe
Episode #27 - It's election year in Ontario21 Jan 202200:34:14

In a little over three months, the 2022 Ontario election campaign will get started. Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives will be seeking re-election for the first time after their 2018 victory. The polls suggest it could be a hotly-contested race, with not only the PCs in contention but also Andrea Horwath’s New Democrats and the Liberals under Steven Del Duca.

To help break down how the parties are preparing for the June election, I’m joined this week by Sabrina Nanji of Queen’s Park Observer, where Sabrina keeps tabs on all the latest goings-on in Ontario politics. You can check out her work here.

The Writ is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

In addition to listening to the episode here, on Apple Podcasts or on Spotify, you can also watch the discussion between myself and Sabrina on YouTube:

To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here.



This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe
Episode #26 - Dan Arnold on polling for the Liberals14 Jan 202200:57:00

Since the Liberals came to power in 2015, Dan Arnold has been the man keeping tabs on public opinion in the Prime Minister’s Office. He’s also acted as the Liberal Party’s pollster in three election campaigns, watching the numbers as Justin Trudeau led the Liberals to three consecutive victories.

After six years, Arnold is making the leap back to the private sector, returning to his old home at Pollara as Chief Strategy Officer. But first, he’s here to talk to me about his experiences tracking public opinion both in government and on the campaign trail in 2015, 2019 and 2021.

The Writ is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

In addition to listening to the episode here, on Apple Podcasts or on Spotify, you can also watch the discussion between myself and Dan on YouTube:

To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here.



This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe
Episode #25 - The 1st Annual Over/Under Contest!17 Dec 202101:01:12

In this final episode of The Writ Podcast for 2021, I’m joined by Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada.com to put our powers of prediction to the test!

The game is simple: we set a number for an upcoming political event and then have to decide whether we think the result will be over or under that number.

For example, the share of the vote the Ontario Progressive Conservatives will get in the June provincial election: 35.4%. Will the party get more or less than Tim Hudak’s score from 2011? Will the Coalition Avenir Québec win more or less than 93.5 seats in the election in October?

Join in on the contest with your predictions in the comments section. But you’ll have to be patient — we’ll only know the winner at the end of 2022!

The full episode is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify, but you’ll most want to watch the entire discussion on YouTube:

If you have any questions you’d like me to answer in a future episode, leave a comment below, tweet me or send me an email. You can also listen to past episodes of The Writ Podcast and watch podcast interviews on YouTube by subscribing to my channel here.

By the way! If you like the theme from The Writ Podcast, you can now listen to it unfiltered and uninterrupted!



This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe
Episode #24 - Polled December night10 Dec 202100:20:39

This week on 2021’s last regular edition of The Writ podcast:

Polls of the week

* Polling from Léger gives us an update on what Canadians think of the pandemic, as well as how their governments are doing handling it.

* As the Liberals announce a diplomatic boycott of the Beijing Olympics, new data from the Angus Reid Institute suggests Canadians’ views on the issue are complicated — but that they see a rising China as a foreign policy threat, according to Abacus Data.

The Writ is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Questions and answers

* What leadership threshold do Erin O’Toole and Jason Kenney need to hit to keep their jobs?

* Any provincial and federal politicians likely to make a jump to a different level of politics?

* Which prime minister has held the most cabinet portfolios?

* What impact could the Ontario Greens have on the next provincial election?

* Could the CAQ make a breakthrough in Liberal-friendly Montreal?

The #EveryElectionProject

* As the holidays approach, politics takes a backseat — except during the 15 times Canadians went to the polls between December 10 and the end of the year.

Look out for a special episode of The Writ Podcast next Friday!

The full episode is also available on YouTube, as well as on Apple Podcasts and Spotify:

If you have any questions you’d like me to answer in next week’s episode, leave a comment below, tweet me or send me an email. You can also listen to past episodes of The Writ Podcast and watch podcast interviews on YouTube by subscribing to my channel here.

This week’s podcast title musical inspiration courtesy of Michael Bublé:



This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe
Episode #23 - Poll-onaise in G Minority03 Dec 2021

This week on The Writ podcast:

Polls of the week

* An update from Abacus Data on federal politics, including what Canadians thought of the throne speech, if they thought anything at all.

* In Quebec, François Legault’s Coalition Avenir Québec remains on track for a landslide in next year’s election, according to Léger.

* In Atlantic Canada, three governments are boasting high satisfaction ratings. One of them isn’t: New Brunswick.

In the news

* Sabrina Nanji of Queen’s Park Observer is back to give us the latest news in Ontario politics, as the countdown to the 2022 provincial election is now 181 days.

Questions and answers

* Which governments are at most political risk from inflation?

* What’s an indicator of a leader in trouble?

* Who is getting their election expenses reimbursed, and who isn’t?

* What’s on my Spotify Wrapped list?

The #EveryElectionProject

* We’re approaching the 100th anniversary of the 1921 federal election, perhaps the first election to look familiar to our modern eyes.

The full episode is also available on YouTube, as well as on Apple Podcasts and Spotify:

If you have any questions you’d like me to answer in next week’s episode, leave a comment below, tweet me or send me an email. You can also listen to past episodes of The Writ Podcast and watch podcast interviews on YouTube by subscribing to my channel here.

This week’s podcast title musical inspiration courtesy of Frédéric Chopin:



This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe
The Numbers: Snap elections, byelections and Trudeau's leadership31 May 202400:55:14

This week, we break down the latest federal polls and discuss whether or not they show a tightening of the race. We then delve into the Baie Verte-Green Bay byelection in Newfoundland and Labrador and the speculation of a snap election call in Ontario, and how those might be tied to Justin Trudeau's leadership. Plus, we have new numbers out of B.C. and a question from the mailbag on the federal byelections. Finally, Philippe has a Quiz on electoral landslides.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.

A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres

LES CHIFFRES: Des congrès, des congrès partout Cette semaine au balado Les chiffres, Philippe et Éric discutent d'une fin de semaine particulièrement chargée en politique québécoise, alors que trois des quatre partis représentés à l'Assemblée nationale se réunissaient pour discuter de leur avenir prochain. Québec solidaire tentait d'éviter l'implosion à Jonquière, le PLQ célébrait son passé et se préparait pour sa course à la chefferie à Bromont et la CAQ, réunie à Saint-Hyacinthe, tentait d'éviter de parler aux médias. Sur la scène fédérale, de nouveaux chiffres de Léger suggèrent une course à trois au Québec entre le Bloc, les libéraux et les conservateurs, mais est-ce réellement la tendance actuelle? Nous décortiquons les plus récentes données. Vous pouvez regarder ce balado sur YouTube.



This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe
Episode #22 - We're here for a good time (not a long time)26 Nov 202100:24:44

This week on The Writ podcast:

In the news

* The House re-elects its speaker and hears a throne speech.

* Former NDP MP Pierre Nantel is trying to make a comeback with his third party in as many years.

* Erin O’Toole and Jason Kenney hold on as party leaders.

* Yukon’s minority government survives a confidence vote.

* The Greens have a new interim leader: Amita Kuttner.

Polls of the week

* The next election on the docket is Ontario’s in June, and the Progressive Conservatives are still holding a narrow lead over the opposition Liberals and New Democrats, according to Léger.

* A look at how Canadians are feeling about inflation from Ipsos.

The Writ is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Questions and answers

* If the Liberals met a 1993 PC-level defeat, which seats would be the surviving two?

* Whither the Greens?

* What’s my early take on federal polling trends?

* Do the Quebec Liberals still dominate the anglophone vote?

The #EveryElectionProject

* Jean Chrétien’s last victory in the 2000 Canadian election, when the right was still divided and the Liberals looked set to govern forever.

The full episode is also available on YouTube, as well as on Apple Podcasts and Spotify:

If you have any questions you’d like me to answer in next week’s episode, leave a comment below, tweet me or send me an email. You can also listen to past episodes of The Writ Podcast and watch podcast interviews on YouTube by subscribing to my channel here.

This week’s podcast title musical inspiration courtesy of Trooper:



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Episode #21 - Tearin' up my party19 Nov 202100:44:06

This week on The Writ podcast:

In the news

* Erin O’Toole faces a leadership challenge from a senator, who he boots from the Conservative caucus.

* A threshold is reached to force an earlier vote on Jason Kenney’s leadership.

* The governing PCs score a big win in a P.E.I. byelection.

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Interview with Aaron Wherry

* Parliament returns on Monday as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau tries to navigate another minority government (with or without the help of the NDP?) and Erin O’Toole faces questions about his leadership. To help break it all down, I’m joined again by the CBC’s Aaron Wherry. You can watch the interview on YouTube below:

Questions and answers

* What impact could a People’s Party of Ontario have on next year’s election?

* How would parties change municipal politics in Ontario?

* Could Jason Kenney really consider the nuclear option of an early election?

* Predicting Canadian politics in 2040.

* An update from Elections Canada and when we’ll know the number of late mail ballots.

If you have any questions you’d like me to answer in next week’s episode, leave a comment below, tweet me or send me an email. You can also listen to episodes of The Writ Podcast on YouTube by subscribing to my channel here.

This week’s podcast title musical inspiration courtesy of NSYNC:



This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe
Episode #20 - Island in the Sun (byelection remix)12 Nov 202100:34:57

This week on The Writ podcast:

In the news

* Quebec holds its municipal elections, with Valérie Plante beating Denis Coderre in the race to be Montreal’s mayor by a bigger margin than expected.

* The leader of the Nova Scotia NDP announces he’ll be stepping down.

* Another right-wing splinter party hopes to make waves in Ontario’s provincial election in June.

The Writ is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

* Prince Edward Island is having a byelection on Monday. Teresa Wright, who teaches journalism at Holland College and has covered P.E.I. and federal politics for years, discusses where things stand politically on the island and what is at stake in the Cornwall–Meadowbank byelection. You can watch my interview with Teresa below:

Questions and answers

* How many federal mail ballots arrived too late to be counted?

* Who will be the next leader of the Green Party?

* A trio of Quebec questions on Québec Solidaire, the stakes for Paul St-Pierre Plamondon in the upcoming byelection, and the history of the “leader’s courtesy” in Quebec.

* Do Saskatchewan people/Saskatchewanians want to be a nation?

If you have any questions you’d like me to answer in next week’s episode, leave a comment below, tweet me or send me an email. You can also listen to episodes of The Writ Podcast on YouTube by subscribing to my channel here.

This week’s podcast title musical inspiration courtesy of Weezer:



This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe
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