Explorez tous les épisodes du podcast The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics
| Titre | Date | Durée | |
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| Xi meets Trump: What next for China? | 25 sept. 2026 | 00:26:02 | |
What did President Xi Jinping’s summit with Donald Trump tell us about the future of US-China relations? Has the latest trade truce brought the two sides any closer to resolving their differences? And with China’s exports booming despite weak domestic demand, can the economy continue to hold up? Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown and Head of China Economics Julian Evans-Pritchard join us on the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing to discuss the Xi-Trump summit, tariffs, rare earths, AI and Taiwan, as well as the outlook for China’s economy. Also on the show, we discuss the latest edition of our China Economic Outlook, including why exports remain so strong, why domestic demand is still weak and what this means for China’s growth, inflation and property markets. | |||
| The Fed, the World, and China Shock 2.0 | 18 sept. 2026 | 00:11:40 | |
Neil Shearing and Jennifer McKeown unpack a pivotal week for the world's major central banks. They discuss the Federal Reserve's latest rate hike and what it says about the independence of central banks in an era of political pressure. They then talk about why the market may be mispricing the future path of interest rates in the US, euro-zone, Japan and the UK. Finally, they discuss Capital Economics' new China Shock 2.0 research programme, exploring how China's export surge is reshaping the global economy and creating challenges and opportunities for Europe, Asia and beyond. | |||
| Neil Shearing on China Shock 2.0 | 10 sept. 2026 | 00:17:11 | |
The stunning surge in Chinese exports bears comparison with what happened during the first China shock of the early 2000s. But this time is different: the scale is much larger, the goods being exported are much more advanced and the geopolitical environment is much more fraught. In this special episode of The Weekly Briefing, Group – Chief Economist Neil Shearing introduces Capital Economics' new series on China Shock 2.0, explaining what this shock means for the global economy, why the costs this time are falling hardest on Europe and why an orderly adjustment to global imbalances looks out of reach.
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| That hot jobs report and the Fed's September meeting | 04 sept. 2026 | 00:29:29 | |
That was a much hotter payrolls report than the market had expected, but how will it influence this month’s Fed decision? With inflation risks still prevalent, how will the ECB and Bank of England approach their September meetings? And what does the surge in bond yields mean for economies? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown join David Wilder on the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing to discuss energy prices, bond yields, inflation risks and what they mean for the path of interest rates.
Global Drop-In: Post-summer macro and markets outlook, Tuesday 8th September 1000 ET/1500 BST: https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/global-drop-post-summer-macro-and-markets-outlook-0 Watch now: Commodities catch-up – What next for energy, gold and agriculturals? | |||
| AI earnings and equities, gauging Bessent’s success and Iran’s economic squeeze | 27 août 2026 | 00:24:06 | |
Can another set of blow-out AI earnings reignite the rally that has powered equities for so long but recently seems to have run out of puff?
Related content Concentrated earnings probably mean concentrated returns Can Iran continue to hold out? | |||
| The great global bond sell-off – causes, consequences and what comes next | 21 août 2026 | 00:24:56 | |
This special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics features an exclusive extract from our client briefing on the global bond sell-off, its causes, consequences and where markets go from here. In this edited extract, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann answer questions from clients around the world, including:
Related content Read: How to think about the bond market sell-off
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| A polarised US rate debate, China's lost reform and the £25bn question | 14 août 2026 | 00:27:55 | |
Have a couple of softer US inflation prints taken a post-Summer Fed rate hike off the table? Did that CPI and PPI data vindicate Kevin Warsh’s divisive approach to central bank communications? And what does the death of former Premier Zhu Rongji tell us about China’s political economy today?
Related content What taxes could Burnham raise to fund his policy ambitions?
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| Is a September Fed hike off the table? The yen rescue. EM risks. | 07 août 2026 | 00:40:46 | |
A jam-packed episode begins with Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joining David Wilder to discuss what a surprisingly weak US employment report means for expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September.
Related content How worried should investors be about Takaichi’s policies? Your questions on Japan’s markets answered EM Financial Risk Monitor (Jul. 2026) | |||
| Kevin Warsh's failure to communicate. Plus: Europe's wildfires | 31 juil. 2026 | 00:27:08 | |
Kevin Warsh sent financial markets into turmoil with a press conference that muddied, rather than clarified, the Fed's message. But was the confusion all part of a broader strategy from a Federal Reserve chair who takes a dim view of forward guidance? On the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins David Wilder to discuss why he doesn't think the new chair deserves the benefit of the doubt, and why clearer communication will be essential if the Fed is to preserve its inflation-fighting credibility.
Related content Little macroeconomic impact of horrific wildfires | |||
| Trade wars, shooting wars and the AI investment boom | 24 juil. 2026 | 00:23:48 | |
Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing unpacks another turbulent week for the global economy. He talks to David Wilder about the latest escalation in the US trade war, the economic fallout from rising tensions with Iran and higher oil prices and why the AI investment boom continues to reshape growth in the US and China.
Related content Fed preview: Rate hikes coming, but not until September Bank of England preview: BoE to hold rates as energy prices keep rate hikes in play What is the future of US tariffs? | |||
| The next oil shock? And China's economy after the GDP miss | 17 juil. 2026 | 00:34:06 | |
The collapse of the US-Iran ceasefire has triggered another spike in oil prices and put markets back on edge. Neil Shearing joins David Wilder to discuss whether the world is heading for another oil shock and what it would mean for growth and inflation. He also explains how Kevin Warsh's warning that the Fed has "no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation" could translate into policy. Also on the show, Julian Evans-Pritchard unpacks China's disappointing Q2 GDP figures, including the role AI is playing in shoring up activity, explains why the People's Bank of China isn't more concerned about slowing credit growth and discusses what to expect on the stimulus front. Related content Global Economic Outlook: US strength points to renewed policy divergence UK Drop-In: The Burnham government – will policy ambition collide with economic reality? Why Burnham will struggle to revive UK growth | |||
| Jennifer McKeown on where next for the advanced economies | 10 juil. 2026 | 00:26:07 | |
It's far too soon to be worrying about another spike in inflation from renewed fighting in the Middle East. That's one of the key messages from Capital Economics' Global Chief Economist Jennifer McKeown, who joins David Wilder on The Weekly Briefing with Neil Shearing away this week. Jenny explains what could drive the Fed to raise interest rates as early as September, whether economies on both sides of the Atlantic can continue to hold up and where we think the consensus is wrong on the outlook for interest rates. Also on the show, in an exclusive excerpt from a recent online client briefing on AI, Chief Economic Adviser Vicky Redwood explains where the technology's impact is already showing up in the data, and what happens to the global economy if AI's promised productivity gains never materialise. Related content Capital Economics Key Issues: AI | |||
| From boom to bust: the AI equity rally in its final phase | 03 juil. 2026 | 00:32:00 | |
For the past three years, our Markets team has been more optimistic than most about the AI-driven rally in global equities. That view has been borne out by events. Now they believe the rally has entered its final phase and that a sharp downturn will follow. On this week's The Weekly Briefing, Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann explains why we think the correction is coming in 2027, what to expect before the plunge and whether the Fed will play a role in the rally's demise. Also on the show, Climate and Commodities Economist Hamad Hussain discusses why our long-standing forecast that gold prices would retreat from their record highs is playing out, and why prices have further to fall from here. Related content: Drop-In: AI's global shockwaves – Macro and market implications Asset Allocation Outlook: The AI equity boom reaching its final innings Commodities Outlook: Beyond Hormuz – the path back to an oil glut | |||
| AI's macro boost, a hawkish Fed and Burnham's balancing act | 26 juin 2026 | 00:32:26 | |
Our flagship Global Economic Outlook is just around the corner, and in this latest episode of The Weekly Briefing, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing previews our view of a world in which some economies are benefiting from the AI investment boom while others are falling behind. He also discusses what to expect from next week’s US employment report and why markets are underestimating just how hawkish the Fed may need to remain to bring inflation back to target. Also on the show, with Andy Burnham’s 'coronation' as the UK’s next prime minister looking increasingly likely, what do we know about the new government’s plans? Paul Dales and Ruth Gregory from our UK team discuss the fiscal constraints that will limit a Burnham government’s spending ambitions, while explaining why falling inflation could allow the Bank of England to deliver much more monetary easing than markets currently expect. Related content UK Economic Outlook: Fall in inflation to 2.0% in 2027 to trigger rate cuts Capital Economics Events | |||
| Tough economic choices in a fragile peace | 19 juin 2026 | 00:23:49 | |
A peace deal that's already showing signs of strain. Central bankers still wrestling with inflation. A new Fed chair seeking reform. And a UK local election with implications for the bond market.
In his discussion, Neil reviews Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed chair, considers the outlook for US interest rates, examines mounting trade tensions between Europe and China, and explains why the UK's next prime minister may find fiscal promises difficult to keep. | |||
| Fed preview: The case for raising rates | Oil's turning point? | 12 juin 2026 | 00:30:09 | |
Relatively strong US growth, sticky inflation and a resilient labour market have strengthened the case for further Fed tightening. In this week's episode of The Weekly Briefing, Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown tells David Wilder why rates may rise again before year-end and what to expect from Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed Chair. Before that, it's Groundhog Friday, as Donald Trump again talks up an imminent deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. But what if this time it really is for real and a US-Iran deal does get done? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses how the outlook could shift if energy starts flowing again, but also explains the economic risks if any deal later falls apart as crude reserves run down. Related content Fed on hold as Warsh faces a fractious FOMC | |||
| Fed hikes, inflation risks and AI stocks | 05 juin 2026 | 00:28:00 | |
Are we moving towards Fed rate hikes? Even before the release of a strong May US employment report, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joined The Weekly Briefing to explain why shifting dynamics on the FOMC mean the Federal Reserve could emerge from the summer weighing the need for tighter policy to contain inflation. Plus, after another extraordinary surge in AI stocks, Chief Economic Adviser for Financial Markets John Higgins discusses how much further the rally could run, whether current earnings growth is sustainable and what could ultimately burst the stock market bubble. Related content Bar to Fed hikes appears relatively low | |||
| A deal at last? What a Hormuz reopening would mean for oil and inflation | 29 mai 2026 | 00:23:42 | |
This could prove another false dawn, or the US and Iran could finally reach an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to oil and gas shipments. But even if the strait reopens, energy flows, oil prices and, by extension, inflation won’t snap back quickly to pre-war levels.
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| This bond market wobble won't be the last | 22 mai 2026 | 00:30:39 | |
This latest wobble in the bond market almost certainly won’t be the last. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann join David Wilder on the latest episode of the Weekly Briefing to discuss the forces that have driven bond yields to multi-year highs. They examine shifting perceptions around inflation as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz drags on, the fiscal worries gnawing away at investor sentiment across the advanced economies and we're entering a world where inflation settles structurally higher than the 2% era policymakers once took for granted. And with Japan’s yield curve steepening sharply, they also discuss whether investors are beginning to question the Bank of Japan’s grip on reflation. Also on the show, India economist Shilan Shah calls in from Mumbai to discuss how record temperatures and the global energy shock are complicating the Reserve Bank’s efforts to contain inflation pressures. He discusses the risks7 facing the rupee, the prospect of tighter monetary policy, and how the current dilemma compares with crises past. Related content Watch: Markets Drop-In: AI-driven paradigm shift or dotcom bubble redux? What’s next for equities Read: Heatwave completes trifecta of risks for India Explore: Fiscal Risks | |||
| UK Labour party meltdown, gilt yields and why the bond market always wins | 15 mai 2026 | 00:29:29 | |
Westminster is gripped by the game of thrones around Labour's slow-mo leadership drama, which could deliver the UK's seventh prime minister in ten years. But for markets and the economy, the stakes are very real. Chief UK Economist Paul Dales tells David Wilder why. He says all the leading contenders to replace Starmer would, to varying degrees, open the spending taps but also explains why the bond market is likely to push back hard. Paul also makes the case for the UK's medium-term outlook looking brighter than many assume, though not because of who's in charge of the country.
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| The Trump-Xi meeting and the limits of a reset | Germany’s overdone pessimism | 08 mai 2026 | 00:37:45 | |
Donald Trump travels to Beijing next week for a long-awaited summit with Xi Jinping that carries huge geopolitical significance, but one where investors should keep expectations firmly in check. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Head of China Economics Julian Evans-Pritchard join David Wilder to assess the state of the US-China relationship and why any apparent thaw in tensions may prove superficial. They discuss issues including:
Also on the show, Chief Europe Economist Andrew Kenningham returns from client meetings in Germany to explain why those who had been expecting an economic turnaround last year have been left disappointed, but to also argue that the prevailing gloom around both the German economy and its politics has become excessive. Related content: Read: What would a new PM mean for the UK economy and markets? Register: Drop-In: Is the energy shock supercharging the Chinese export boom? Read: Taking stock of the German fiscal stimulus Read: Fiscal stimulus won’t fix Germany’s economy | |||
| A tough macro backdrop gets tougher. Will equities care? | 30 avr. 2026 | 00:35:22 | |
A day after Brent crude surged above $120 per barrel, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Deputy Chief Emerging Markets Economist Jason Tuvey discuss how long the conflict in the Middle East could continue and why Iran’s collapsing economy is not a reliable guide to when the regime might capitulate. Speaking with David Wilder, they also explore how central bankers are navigating the inflation risks posed by a prolonged disruption to energy supply, as well as what the UAE’s departure from OPEC could mean for oil markets and what it signals in a world of intensifying US–China competition.
Related content Read: How long can Iran hold out? Read: Forecasting through the fog of war | |||
| What if the energy shock gets worse? And what to expect from a Warsh-led Fed? | 24 avr. 2026 | 00:30:46 | |
The Iran conflict is approaching its third month, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and oil is back above $100 per barrel. How safe is the assumption that this will all be resolved soon, and what happens to commodity prices, growth and inflation if it isn’t?
Related content Read: Powell’s departure upstaged as Warsh readies Fed revamp Drop-In: The Fed, ECB and Bank of England – Signals from the April meetings | |||
| Global imbalances, all over again | Gulf economies in crisis | 17 avr. 2026 | 00:35:21 | |
Global imbalances are back. But how serious is the threat this time, and could they trigger the next phase of global economic instability? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins David Wilder to unpack what is driving balance of payments positions to worrying extremes, why a more fragmented and volatile world raises the stakes, and why Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are unlikely to take meaningful steps to address these tensions when they meet next month. Also on the show, Deputy Chief EM Economist Jason Tuvey examines the economic shock hitting Gulf economies as a result of the Middle East conflict, and what it means for their long-term development ambitions. Related content Drop-In: China’s shock to the eurozone – economic fallout and policy choices Can China’s trade surplus rise further? War dealing a heavy blow to the Gulf economies | |||
| A fragile ceasefire: What next for economies and markets? | 10 avr. 2026 | 00:35:53 | |
The latest Weekly Briefing covers the global outlook, financial markets and energy. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains what the ceasefire in the Middle East means for growth and inflation, how quickly the world economy could recover if it holds, and what happens if fighting resumes. James Reilly, a Senior Economist on our Markets team, joins to run through updated forecasts for equities and bonds, why markets have held up relatively well, and why the stock market highs expected before the war now look out of reach. Plus, in an exclusive clip from a recent client briefing, our Climate & Commodities team explain why restoring oil supply is not as simple as flicking a switch, and the constraints on refined product output. Related Iran conflict: Global macro and market implications Watch: How the Middle East conflict has changed the price outlook Mapping the next stage of the AI rally Get trial access: https://www.capitaleconomics.com/solutions/subscription-products#trial-request | |||
| AI and economies: from capex boom to productivity payoff | 01 avr. 2026 | 00:22:14 | |
The AI hype cycle shows no sign of slowing. But how much are the hundreds of billions in investment actually boosting economies, and when will that spending translate into meaningful productivity gains? In this episode, Senior Economic Adviser Vicky Redwood discusses her new report, 'How deeply is AI taking hold in the economy?', the latest addition to Capital Economics’ analysis of AI’s global impact. In conversation with David Wilder, she separates hype from reality, covering:
Read 'How deeply is AI taking hold in the economy?': https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-focus/how-deeply-ai-taking-hold-economy | |||
| Global Economic Outlook: Forecasting in the fog of war | 26 mars 2026 | 00:29:36 | |
Our updated macro and market forecasts assess the impact on growth and inflation – and the likely central bank response – under both baseline and adverse scenarios for the Middle East conflict. In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses why the more benign scenario would deliver a negative but manageable shock to the global economy, while a more adverse outcome could tip it into outright recession. Also on the show, Deputy Chief UK Economist Ruth Gregory explains why gilts have been the hardest hit among G10 government bonds as tensions have escalated. She explores the sharp shift in expectations for Bank of England policy and the underlying fiscal vulnerabilities fuelling market anxiety – including the risk of a change in government leadership. Read our latest Global Economic Outlook: https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economic-outlook/forecasting-through-fog-war-1 | |||
| Policy in a time of conflict: Central banks and the growth-inflation trade-off | 20 mars 2026 | 00:26:38 | |
Pity the poor central banker. As energy prices surge, they are grappling with the trade-off between growth and inflation, while trying to communicate this all to markets without triggering an unwanted tightening in financial conditions.
In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing, they talk to David Wilder about issues including:
Join our 26th March online briefings about our new macro and market forecasts: https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-global-economic-and-market-outlook-pricing-energy-shock | |||
| Oil, war and economies – Three scenarios for the Middle East conflict | 12 mars 2026 | 00:31:45 | |
News of a record release of emergency oil reserves has quickly been overshadowed by images of tankers on fire in the Strait of Hormuz. Thirteen days into the conflict, tensions in the Middle East appear to be escalating rather than easing. What is the view from commodity and financial markets, and what could this mean for the global economy? Capital Economics has modelled three scenarios to assess how oil and gas supplies and prices could evolve as the conflict unfolds, and what this might mean for global growth, inflation, central bank policy and financial markets.
Explore all our coverage of the conflict, including our scenarios here: https://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/iran-conflict Interested in trial access? Email us at podcast@capitaleconomics.com | |||
| Middle East conflict, oil prices and that US jobs drop | 06 mars 2026 | 00:30:57 | |
Conflict in the Middle East, a surge in oil and gas prices, and a surprise drop in US payrolls – it’s been a turbulent week for the global economy. In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing, Capital Economics Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins David Wilder to discuss what the spreading Middle East conflict and sharp spike in energy prices mean for global growth and inflation, and why the latest US jobs report may not signal a major slowdown. Later, Senior Climate and Commodities Economist Kieran Tompkins explains the scale of disruption in global oil and gas markets, whether alternative supply can offset the shock and what the longer-term implications could be for energy markets. Read all our key insight into the Middle East conflict here: Get in touch for a trial to our platform: | |||
| Special Episode: Conflict in the Middle East – The key macro and market questions | 02 mars 2026 | 00:18:37 | |
Amid widening conflict in the Middle East, our economist team held an online briefing first thing Monday to tackle some of the key questions that clients have been asking. In this edited clip from that briefing, you’ll hear the team tackle issues, including:
With: Jennifer McKeown (Chief Global Economist), William Jackson (Chief EM Economist), David Oxley (Chief Climate & Commodities Economist), Jonas Goltermann (Deputy Chief Markets Economist). Note: This client briefing was held at 1000 GMT/1800 SGT on Monday, 2nd March See our dedicated Iran conflict page below for more key analysis, and contact us at podcast@capitaleconomics.com to find out about access. https://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/iran-conflict | |||
| Can China finally fix its economic model? | 27 févr. 2026 | 00:41:57 | |
Is China’s latest Five-Year Plan about to reset its economic model and tackle the imbalances weighing on both the domestic and global economy? Speculation always builds ahead of a new Five-Year Plan. But this time, the stakes feel higher. With growth slowing, debt risks lingering and external tensions elevated, could this Plan mark a genuine turning point?
Events and analysis referenced in this episode China NPC Drop-In UK Spring Statement Drop-In US non-farm payrolls preview | |||
| Supreme Court special: What the Trump tariffs ruling means for macro and markets | 20 févr. 2026 | 00:21:06 | |
The Supreme Court has finally ruled on Donald Trump's tariffs with an opinion that the president has no right to impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. So what happens now? Deputy Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown and Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann join The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to discuss the implications of this legal ruling for the US economy, for Federal Reserve policy and for financial markets. In their conversation with David Wilder, Stephen and Jonas address key issues, including:
Related reading IEEPA ruling unlikely to pull PCE inflation back to 2% Stock market rotation is a warning of trouble ahead SC rules that Trump's IEEPA tariffs are illegal | |||
| Brown on the US outlook, Gregory on UK politics | 13 févr. 2026 | 00:30:30 | |
From the lows of December retail sales to the highs of January payrolls, recent US data has sent mixed signals. But the economy remains in relatively good shape, argues Deputy Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown on the latest episode of the Capital Economics Weekly Briefing. He explores why the idea of a “K-shaped” economy may be overstated, what markets are missing about the productivity growth upturn, and the chances of much lower rates from a Kevin Warsh-led Fed. Also on the show, as Keir Starmer’s government reels from one of its toughest weeks yet, Deputy Chief UK Economist Ruth Gregory assesses what a change of leadership could mean for the UK economy and financial markets, but also why the long-term growth outlook may not be as bleak as recent headlines suggest. Related reading: AI already making a big contribution to US productivity growth Get in touch at podcast@capitaleconomics.com to learn more. | |||
| Tech sell-off, AI winners and losers, and reasons to be optimistic about productivity | 06 févr. 2026 | 00:16:04 | |
In this week’s episode, Neil Shearing talks to Vicky Redwood and John Higgins about a tumultuous week in equity markets, how AI is creating winners and losers, and whether there’s any evidence that AI is starting to lift productivity growth in economies. AI already making a big contribution to productivity growth | |||
| Inflation nation – Japan’s turning point and a critical election | 03 févr. 2026 | 00:32:32 | |
This weekend’s Japanese election is shaping up to be one of the most consequential in years. As Sanae Takaichi, newly installed leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, seeks to cement her mandate, government bond yields and the yen have been moving in opposite directions amid headlines warning of plans to open the fiscal floodgates. But are markets really responding to fears of runaway spending, or to the reality that Japan is finally emerging from decades of deflation? Capital Economics’ Head of Asia-Pacific, Marcel Thieliant, and Head of Asia-Pacific Markets, Thomas Mathews, join the show to unpack what the return of inflation means for the Japanese economy, for the Bank of Japan, for government bonds and for the outcome of this weekend’s vote. Also on the show: a new US-India deal to slash eye-watering reciprocal tariff rates is the latest in a flurry of trade agreements from the Modi administration. Shilan Shah, our India research lead, explains what these deals mean for India’s economic outlook – and whether the country can truly wean itself off Russian oil. Read our key analysis about the return of inflation to Japan's economy. For Capital Economics clients: Japan Drop-In: Takaichi’s election gamble – Fiscal risks, market consequences | |||
| Special Episode: What Kevin Warsh would mean for the Fed | 30 janv. 2026 | 00:29:37 | |
Kevin Warsh has been named Donald Trump’s pick to succeed Jerome Powell as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing, Deputy Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown, and Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann come together for a special episode of The Weekly Briefing to address the key questions raised by this announcement, including:
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| A new world order? | Why Russia’s economy won’t stop the war | 23 janv. 2026 | 00:44:15 | |
Was this the week that shattered the western alliance? Not so fast, says Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing. Despite the strains of a Trump presidency, deep economic dependencies on the US suggest that talk of a new international order is overblown. Neil cuts through the Davos rhetoric to explain the reality of the current global macro landscape. Later in the show, as the fourth anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine approaches, Senior EM Economist Liam Peach explains what many get wrong about Russia’s economy. He explores how initial resilience has finally given way to weakness, but also why this shift is unlikely to force Putin into meaningful concessions to end the war. Referenced in this episode: Analysis hub: Japan's reinflationary reawakening | |||
| Neil Shearing on China’s trillion dollar surplus; Leah Fahy on China's AI race | 16 janv. 2026 | 00:35:02 | |
Can you pitch yourself as a responsible global stakeholder at the same time as running a $1.2 trillion trade surplus? That’s China’s big global macro play, and it’s one that Neil Shearing thinks China is going to struggle to pull off. The Group Chief Economist of Capital Economics is on The Weekly Briefing to explain what that mammoth trade imbalance means for advanced and emerging economies in a fracturing global economy, including why some EMs are doing quite well as a result of all of the geoeconomic ructions. Also on the show, there’s an awful lot of noise around the race for AI leadership between the US and China, but how to separate out the hype from the reality? China Economist Leah Fahy’s new report sizes up the progress that Chinese AI has made since the launch of DeepSeek a year ago, and the impact that Beijing’s race for tech supremacy will have on the country’s economic outlook. Six non-consensus calls for China for 2026 | |||
| Maduro’s capture | Is the AI productivity boom here? | 09 janv. 2026 | 00:27:30 | |
The first trading week of 2026 has been a whirlwind of geopolitical shocks and big economic developments. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is back on The Weekly Briefing to break down an historic start to the year, including:
Also on the show: David Oxley and Kieran Tompkins from our Commodities team join us to make sense of a volatile week in the oil market. They discuss the reality behind expectations for a surge in Venezuelan oil flows onto the global market. | |||
| Special: Global CRE outlook – Where to find returns in a uniquely weak recovery | 22 déc. 2025 | 00:27:18 | |
This recovery in commercial real estate is unique. Across the US, Europe, and Asia, it has been defined by persistent weakness in both investment and prices. On this special episode of The Weekly Briefing, Chief Real Estate Economist Kiran Raichura and Senior Real Estate Economist Amy Wood join David Wilder to discuss whether this weakness will persist through 2026 and where investors can still find outperformance. Kiran and Amy address:
Further reading: Key themes for global commercial real estate in 2026 | |||
| Dodgy data, all flavour of rate move and a bubble that will keep inflating (for now) | 19 déc. 2025 | 00:31:56 | |
The final major week of the year in macro is in the books. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins The Weekly Briefing to explain why the latest US inflation report should be taken with a “bucketful of salt,” while reviewing the year-end moves from the BoE, BoJ, and ECB. He reviews the latest moves from the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the ECB, and talks about why a growing Chinese trade surplus has a corresponding deficit that could present a key risk to global macro stability. Plus, Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann discusses one of our most prominent calls for 2026: why, despite recent wobbles, the AI-driven equities bubble will continue to inflate. | |||
| Special episode: The World in 2026 – Key drivers, key risks in global macro | 12 déc. 2025 | 00:28:42 | |
In this special episode of The Weekly Briefing podcast, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown outline Capital Economics' expectations for 2026.
Learn more: | |||
| Can Europe compete in a fractured world? | 05 déc. 2025 | 00:31:31 | |
The year began amid optimism that Europe was finally prepared to meet its economic potential. But as the end of 2025 approaches, how much has actually changed in the European story of weak growth and political fragmentation? In this special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Chief Europe Economist Andrew Kenningham and Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing join David Wilder to what has – and hasn’t – changed in the European outlook. They explore Europe’s challenges in navigating an increasingly fractured global economy, including whether its industries are equipped to handle competitive pressures from the US and China, the risks stemming from elevated public debt, and why the urgency to ramp up defence spending isn’t being met by action.
Analysis and events referenced in this episode Drop-In: The World in 2026 - The global macro and market outlook Read: Russia & China: a “no limits” partnership with limits | |||
| UK Budget: The Missing Growth Story | China: The Investment Mystery | 27 nov. 2025 | 00:26:50 | |
After all the kite-flying, the doom-laden briefings and the policy U-turns, the UK Budget landed well with the markets. But did gilts rally simply because the news wasn’t worse, or has the government genuinely won over the bond vigilantes? And for all the initial success in launching this Budget, where is the strategy that will lift the UK’s anaemic growth? Chief UK Economist Paul Dales and Deputy Chief UK Economist Ruth Gregory join David Wilder to assess the Budget’s impact, the economic fallout and why lingering political uncertainty still points to more bond-market volatility in 2026. Plus, Chinese fixed-asset investment is falling, prompting debate among China watchers about whether it's a sign the crackdown on price wars and overcapacity is biting. But China Economist Leah Fahy explains why there could be less to investment's weakness than the success of Beijing’s policies – and the latest reading of our China Activity Proxy helps show why. Analysis and events referenced in this episode Watch: The Autumn Budget – What’s next for the economy and markets? | |||
| More AI bubble fears, the UK Budget countdown and Saudi Arabia’s global pivot | 21 nov. 2025 | 00:35:42 | |
Is the bubble bursting? Despite a big earnings beat from Nvidia, concerns about overheated AI valuations are mounting. Jonas Goltermann weighs the risks that the equities rally is fading. We also look at what to expect from Rachel Reeves’ Budget after an unusually turbulent build-up, and the possible economic fallout. And Neil Shearing considers what this week’s Trump-Mohammed bin Salman meeting signals about Saudi Arabia’s position in a fracturing global economy. Analysis and events referenced in this episode: UK Drop-In: The Autumn Budget – What’s next for the economy and markets? | |||
| Is AI killing jobs, and when does the growth payoff arrive? | 14 nov. 2025 | 00:41:19 | |
Where is the big macro payoff from the surge in artificial intelligence investment? And is AI wiping out entry-level jobs? The latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics unpacks these questions and examines what this new wave of technology really means for growth and labour markets. The episode also marks the reopening of the US government with a clear assessment of the economic outlook, and explores how fiscal risks are disrupting politics across the US and Europe. These pressures are set to shape policy debates well into 2026. Analysis and events referenced in this episode
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| The Rachel Reeves tax threat, the Supreme Court tariffs test and the fate of the AI boom | 07 nov. 2025 | 00:34:45 | |
Who was Rachel Reeves really speaking to when she hinted at higher taxes this week? How much of a threat is the Supreme Court to Treasury tariff revenues? And how useful is “G2” as a lens for the new global order? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing unpacks these big global macro questions in the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics. Also on the show, Chief Markets Economist John Higgins assesses whether this week’s sell-off marks the end of the great AI-driven US equity boom, or was just a wobble on the way to new highs. Analysis and events referenced in this episode Read: UK Autumn Budget 2025 Preview | |||
| Driving in fog, standing on ice: The Fed and the fragile trade truce | 31 oct. 2025 | 00:34:17 | |
The Fed is trying to calibrate policy in the midst of a government shutdown that’s effectively cut off the flow of data. Jerome Powell says that when you’re driving in fog, you should slow down – but there’s still a case for the FOMC to follow this past week’s rate cut with another move in December, says Deputy Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown. He talks to David Wilder about why the state of the US economy argues for another cut this year, but fewer in 2026 than markets currently expect.
Analysis and events referenced in this episode: Drop-In: The Fed, ECB and Bank of England – Latest decisions and policy outlook Read: Fed cuts and ends QT, but further loosening not guaranteed | |||
| Trump and Xi, CPI and the Fed, oil and sanctions | 24 oct. 2025 | 00:26:16 | |
Out of the darkness of a shuttered US government comes a rare data release – and it’s a CPI report that’s given markets some relief as the week draws to a close. But does September’s inflation data really clear the way for Fed rate cuts in December as well as October, as investors now expect?
Analysis and events referenced in this episode: Read: China ramping up use of export controls Drop-In: Argentina’s mid-term elections – A referendum on Milei’s reforms | |||