The Unknown Knowns – Détails, épisodes et analyse

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It's Hard Not to Be Romantic About Baseball

Épisode 21

mercredi 19 août 2026 • Durée 41:29

What can baseball teach us about intelligence analysis?

In this episode of The Unknown Knowns, Dr Angela Lewis turns to the world of baseball and the story of the Oakland Athletics to explore how data, strategy and human judgement interact when outcomes remain uncertain.

Using Moneyball as a starting point, Angela examines the difference between improving the probability of success and actually controlling the outcome. Data can reveal patterns, challenge assumptions and help us make better decisions, but it cannot eliminate uncertainty or account for everything that happens when humans enter the equation.

The same principle applies far beyond sport. Intelligence professionals, leaders and decision makers can use information to improve their decisions, but they still have to operate in environments where unexpected events, human behaviour and chance can change the outcome.

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Cornfield Economics

Épisode 20

mercredi 12 août 2026 • Durée 22:57

In this episode, Dr Angela Lewis explores what happens when intelligence concepts leave the classroom and start showing up in everyday life. Angela explains why experts can recognise underlying patterns across very different situations, while others can struggle to apply a concept outside the context in which they learned it. The real challenge is not memorising concepts like confirmation bias, groupthink or bounded rationality. It is recognising them when they appear in unfamiliar places and developing better mental models using intelligence tradecraft as a broader way of navigating human judgement.

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#Intelligence #CriticalThinking #CognitiveBias #Judgment #DecisionMaking

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The Art of the Jedi Mind Trick (Part 2)

Épisode 19

jeudi 6 août 2026 • Durée 28:56

Where is the line between influence and manipulation and how do you know when you've crossed it?

In Part 2 of this series, Dr Angela Lewis moves from theory to practice, exploring how influence works in the real world and the ethical questions it raises. She examines why intent alone is not enough, how context shapes perception and why the most effective influence often leaves people feeling they made the decision themselves. Rather than offering simple rules, Angela provides a practical framework for recognising ethical influence, avoiding manipulation and becoming more aware of the techniques that shape decisions every day.

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