This episode examines the “Fragile Four” economies—the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, and France—and why politics is increasingly spilling into financial markets. After a long stretch where markets largely shrugged off political volatility, an “age of inflation” coupled with high debt, aging demographics, rising defense spending, and anxious populations across the Fragile Four are making markets more reactive to political shocks. We break down what’s driving the shift and why cracks are appearing now.

Hosts:

Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Mentioned on the Episode: 

“Accidental ‘crying horse’ toy wins hearts in China,” Reuters 

“Economic Anxiety Is a Global Problem,” Gallup

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The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

In a 6-3 decision, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the government’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), holding that the statute does not authorize a president to impose sweeping tariffs. In this breaking news episode, host Rebecca Patterson is joined by Michael Froman, president of the Council on Foreign Relations and a former U.S. trade representative, to unpack the decision and discuss potential spillovers into financial and labor markets.

Host:

Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Guest: 

Michael Froman, President, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

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The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy. 

European leaders are at an inflection point. After high-level meetings in Munich and Brussels, they must decide what role Europe will play in the unfolding new world order, politically and economically. Can China, India, and Brazil provide lessons on how to navigate the U.S. trade war? Can a “multi-speed” Europe with less and simpler regulation become a reality? As the world’s second-largest economy, the EU’s choices will shape global growth—and markets are watching.

Hosts:

Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Guest: 

Edward Fishman, Senior Fellow and Director of the Maurice R. Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR); Author, Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare

Mentioned on the Episode: 

Edward Fishman, “Want to stop Trump bullying your country? Retaliate,” The Guardian 

“MEPs propose new legal framework for innovative companies,” European Parliament 

“How Polymarket Is Turning Bitcoin Volatility Into a Five-Minute Betting Market,” Yahoo Finance 

“Why a dart frog poison believed to have killed Alexei Navalny points to the Kremlin,” NBC News

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The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

Is there an AI bubble, or just an OpenAI bubble? Markets remain focused on whether valuations can be justified by sufficiently fast revenue growth, while the real economy braces for AI’s impact on productivity, jobs, and other disruptions. With global leaders and tech CEOs convening in India to debate AI governance, the stakes are rising fast. Credit markets, hiring data, and business sentiment could signal whether this year will bring a continued jobless expansion or something more concerning.

Hosts:

Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Mentioned on the Episode: 

Sebastian Mallaby and Sebastian Elbaum, “The AI Trilemma,” Foreign Affairs 

Sebastian Mallaby, The Infinity Machine: Demis Hassabis, DeepMind, and the Quest for Superintelligence 

Alap Shah, “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis,” Citrini Research 

Matt Shumer, “Something Big Is Happening in AI — and Most People Will Be Blindsided,” Forbes 

Martha Gimbel, “An AI Productivity Boom? Don’t Count Your (Productivity Data) Chickens,” Yale Budget Lab

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The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy. 

U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran are disrupting energy markets. Iran’s production capacity has been hit, the Strait of Hormuz has essentially been closed, and Iran’s energy-producing neighbors have been dragged into the conflict. This episode looks at the spillovers from the resulting energy price shock and explores how structural shifts, including a surge in U.S. oil production, China’s emergence as a dominant buyer, and the growth of renewables have reshaped oil’s geopolitical and economic role.

Hosts:

Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Guest:

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research, J.P. Morgan

Mentioned on the Episode: 

“Outlook for Energy Demand,” International Energy Agency (IEA) 

Ignacio Presno and Andrea Prestipino, “Oil Price Shocks and Inflation in a DSGE Model of the Global Economy,” Federal Reserve 

John Kehoe, “Iran War Oil Inflation is a Nightmare for RBA,” Financial Review

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The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

On the 250th anniversary of Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations, this episode revisits a book that laid the foundations of modern economics and then considers the tensions between free markets and industrial policy today. It highlights the ways in which specialization and global trade remain powerful drivers of prosperity, reflecting Smith’s insight that self-interest can benefit society when shaped by competition and institutions, while noting the ongoing relevance of his warnings about moral judgment, the rule of law, and resistance to cronyism.

Hosts:

Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Mentioned on the Episode: 

“Adam Smith is Misinterpreted and His Influence Overstated,” Economist 

Gita Gopinath, “Geopolitics and its Impact on Global Trade and the Dollar,” International Monetary Fund (IMF) 

Caitlin Oprysko, “Trump’s Return Supercharges Lobbying Revenues,” Politico

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The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

How do critical international developments shape economic and financial markets worldwide? Each week, The Spillover examines the ripple effects of global events across policy, geopolitics, economics, technology, and finance. This podcast helps you better understand what’s happening, and why it matters to businesses, the markets, and the world.

Hosts:

Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

This episode unpacks the evolving U.S.-China AI rivalry, the limits of technological export controls, and what’s really at stake as both countries race to shape the future of intelligence.

Submit Your Question For a Chance to Win a Copy of Sebastian Mallaby’s Book The Infinity Machine! 

Host:

Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Guest:

Chris McGuire, Senior Fellow for China and Emerging Technologies, CFR

We discuss:

• How U.S. export controls on chips are slowing China’s AI progress, but not stopping it, as loopholes, smuggling and cloud access weaken enforcement.
• Why China’s progress is stronger than expected, with competing models only months behind the U.S.
• As Chris McGuire, CFR senior fellow, puts it: “Whoever has the better AI is going to have the offense-defense advantage in the cyber realm.” 
• Why compute and advanced chips are the real bottleneck.
• Why the “AI intelligence explosion” is overstated, with real-world deployment slowed by infrastructure, regulation, and human constraints.
• The tension between containing China and working with it on global AI safety and governance.

Mentioned on the Episode: 

Sebastian Mallaby, The Infinity Machine: Demis Hassabis, DeepMind, and the Quest for Superintelligence, Penguin Random House 

Chris McGuire, “The New AI Chip Export Policy to China: Strategically Incoherent and Unenforceable,” CFR.org

Chris McGuire, “Trump’s Reversal on AI Chips is a Historic Blunder,” The Washington Post 

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The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

As the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran escalates, global markets are absorbing the shocks: oil prices are swinging, inflation expectations are rising, and safe-haven assumptions are being tested. China, by contrast, is looking relatively resilient, buoyed by strategic energy reserves, diversified supply chains, and policy flexibility. This episode examines how the conflict is driving inflation, complicating monetary policy, and handing China a geoeconomic edge.

Submit Your Question For a Chance to Win a Copy of Sebastian Mallaby’s Book The Infinity Machine!

Hosts:

Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Mentioned on the Episode: 

Sebastian Mallaby, The Infinity Machine: Demis Hassabis, DeepMind, and the Quest for Superintelligence, Penguin Random House 

Coco Feng, “China Issues New Safety Rules for OpenClaw. Here Are the Dos and Don’ts” South China Morning Post 

Hany Abdel-Latif and Adina Popescu, “Spillovers From Large Emerging Economies: How Dominant Is China?,” International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Michael Langemeier and Joana Colussi, “Farmer Sentiment Drops Sharply at the Start of 2026 as Economic Concerns Increase,” Purdue University/CME Group

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The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

This episode unpacks cohost Sebastian Mallaby’s new book The Infinity Machine and answers audience questions on AI, dollar dominance, the impact of Trump’s foreign policy on midterm elections, and more.

Hosts:

Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

We discuss: 

• Demis Hassabis as a key architect of modern AI and the force behind DeepMind.
• AI’s upside in medicine and science, especially through AlphaFold and faster drug discovery.
• The tension between building powerful AI quickly and making it safe.
• Why the biggest AI winners may be the ones that turn models into useful products.
• Why the dollar still dominates, even as China and Europe look for ways to challenge it.
• How Trump’s foreign policy decisions on the Middle East and immigration could sway voters in the upcoming midterm elections.
• How drones and supply chain choke points are reshaping global conflict.

Mentioned on the Episode: 

Sebastian Mallaby, The Infinity Machine: Demis Hassabis, DeepMind, and the Quest for Superintelligence, Penguin Random House

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The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

This episode dives into how the opaque growth and structural risks in private credit, combined with global supply shocks and market stress spurred by the Iran war, are creating a uniquely fragile and unpredictable economic landscape.

Hosts:

Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

We discuss:

• The rapid rise of private credit, its lack of transparency, and why recent bankruptcies are raising red flags. 
• How $10 billion in redemption requests were submitted to major private credit funds in the first quarter of 2026—including major funds Apollo, Ares, and Blackstone. 
• Why this moment isn’t a repeat of 2008, but still presents real risks due to government debt levels and the lack of safety nets for private credit. 
• As Rebecca Patterson, CFR senior fellow, puts it: “No one has any idea what’s going to happen—and that’s exactly the challenge right now.” 
• Current structural risks in private credit, including liquidity mismatches, redemption limits (“gates”), and growing exposure to retail investors. 
• Why financial markets are behaving unusually, with rising bond yields and weakening traditional safe-haven assets. 
• How central banks are stuck between fighting inflation and supporting growth, creating a far more complex policy environment than past crises.

Mentioned on the Episode:

Sebastian Mallaby, The Infinity Machine: Demis Hassabis, DeepMind, and the Quest for Superintelligence, Penguin Random House

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The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

Live from Washington, DC, this episode unpacks how war, AI, financial innovation, and global institutions are reshaping monetary policy, market stability, and the future of the international economic order. 

Host:

Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations

Guest:

William C. Dudley, Chair, Bretton Woods Committee; Former President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

We discuss:

• Whether monetary policy can still do the heavy lifting in a war-shaken macro environment.
• AI, productivity, and the inflation debate.
• The future of the Fed as an institution.
• The rise of non-bank finance and new financial stability risks.
• How global financial institutions and digital finance must adapt to structural change.

Mentioned on the Episode: 

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, “War Darkens Global Economic Outlook and Reshapes Policy Priorities,” International Monetary Fund (IMF)

“Chair Powell’s Press Conference”

The Bretton Woods Committee

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The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

Prediction markets have grown into a multibillion-dollar industry. This episode asks whether they are powerful forecasting tools or gambling platforms in disguise—and what their rise means for how risk and information are priced.

Hosts:

Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Guest:

Christy Goldsmith Romero, Former Commissioner, Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)

We discuss: 

• How prediction markets are turning the world into a “casino” where you can bet on almost anything, from elections and geopolitics to sports and niche events.
• The evolution of prediction markets from academic tools to mainstream platforms shaping finance, politics, and culture.
• Why these markets sometimes outperform polls, where they fall short, and how they blur the line between forecasting and entertainment-driven gambling.
• As Rebecca Patterson asks: “Are these markets actually useful, or are they just gambling dressed up as forecasting?”
• The legal gray areas that are allowing prediction markets to expand so quickly and the growing risk of manipulation and insider bets.
• An anecdote from France, where someone allegedly tampered with a weather sensor to manipulate the outcome of a prediction market bet.
• How governments and regulators are struggling to keep up.
• Whether these markets truly reflect the “wisdom of crowds” or just loud, well-funded players.

Mentioned on the Episode:

Anthony M. Diercks, Jared Dean Katz, and Jonathan H. Wright, “Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets,” Federal Reserve Board

“The Future of Financial Services Regulation: A Conversation with CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero,” Brookings Institution

Adam Hoffer and Jacob Macumber-Rosin, “Expanded Sports Betting Legalization Would Generate Billions in Tax Revenue,” Tax Foundation

Andy Serwer, “Charles Schwab CEO Explains Why Investing Works—and Gambling Doesn’t,” Barron's

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The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

This episode unpacks the concept of a K-shaped economy, examines how AI, war, and climate shocks may be widening inequality within and between countries, and explains why the divide is so hard to measure. It also explores competing responses to the affordability crisis—from Trump’s to Mamdani’s—and asks if a more centrist path could offer better solutions.

Hosts:

Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

We discuss:

• How a true K-shaped economy features a widening divergence in which some groups accelerate upward while others fall behind.
• Why measuring the K-shaped economy is complicated, with major disagreements over data and methodology.
• How asset ownership, not just wages, helps explain why wealthier households pulled ahead during and after COVID through equities, housing, and cheap credit.
• Why inflation, war-driven energy and food shocks, and different household spending patterns can deepen economic divergence, especially for lower-income households.
• How the “mega K” concept applies globally, with geopolitical shocks like the Iran and Ukraine wars worsening divides between rich and poor countries.
• How artificial intelligence and climate change could worsen the K phenomenon, disproportionately pressuring workers, poorer countries, and those without capital.
• How contrasting policy prescriptions—from Trump’s tariffs and immigration restrictions to Mamdani’s proposed taxes on wealthy second-home owners—reflect competing populist approaches to affordability.
• How a revival of “radical centrism,” combining fiscally responsible reforms with practical policies to manage inequality, AI disruption, and long-term economic inclusion might help.

Mentioned on the Episode:

“America’s Affordability Crisis Is (Mostly) a Mirage,” The Economist

“Going Bananas Over Affordability,” Inside Economics

“Compare Wealth Components Across Groups,” The Federal Reserve

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The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

This episode explores how the Gulf region transformed into a global “capital of capital,” and the risk of the Iran conflict disrupting that role. It examines the ripple effects on global markets, U.S. tech and AI investment, and the broader balance of economic power if Gulf capital starts turning inward to focus on defense.

Hosts:

Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, CFR

Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, CFR

We discuss:

• How the Gulf transformed itself from a group of oil-dependent economies into a global “capital of capital,” attracting trillions in investment, talent, and tech partnerships. 
• The scale of Gulf sovereign wealth funds and why it became a critical funding source for global markets, especially U.S. tech and AI. 
• How a prolonged conflict could force Gulf states to redirect capital inward toward defense and reconstruction. 
• As Sebastian Mallaby puts it: “If the capital of capital turns inward in any significant way, the global effects could be profound.” 
• How the Iran war challenges the core assumption that the Gulf could remain insulated from geopolitics.
• The Gulf's history of boom-bust cycles and a key difference in the current bust: it's not about price, but the ability to move energy through key chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz. 
• How disruptions hit different Gulf economies in different ways, from physical damage in energy exporters to confidence shocks in hubs like Dubai. 
• The potential global spillover of less Gulf capital flowing into U.S. markets, private equity, and AI infrastructure and what that means for everyday outcomes—higher bond yields, slower asset growth, and ripple effects on things like mortgage rates. 
• The big open question: if the Gulf steps back as a global capital provider, who, if anyone, can replace it?

Mentioned on the Episode:

“How the US grows from PIF’s pioneering investments,” Newswire

“Sovereign Wealth Funds and Public Pension Funds Tracker,” Global SWF

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The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

AI and satellite imagery are quickly converging to create “planetary intelligence,” a new generation of systems capable of capturing and analyzing images of Earth in real time. This episode explores how the AI infrastructure race could move into orbit, with space-based data centers, falling launch costs, and “large Earth models” potentially transforming the global economy, geopolitics, and the future of artificial intelligence itself.

Host:

Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Guest:

Will Marshall, CEO and Cofounder, Planet Labs

We discuss: 

• How AI could transform the space economy more profoundly than the invention of the internet, and potentially move the world’s supercomputers off Earth entirely. 
• Why Planet Labs founder Will Marshall believes satellites and AI are converging into what he calls “planetary intelligence.” 
• Why the real driver of the space boom wasn’t just rocket technology, but the smartphone revolution and the miniaturization of electronics. 
• How commercial satellite imagery exposed Russia’s invasion buildup before the war in Ukraine, including the discovery of a pontoon bridge on the Belarus border. 
• Why AI is making satellite data dramatically more valuable by allowing models to analyze satellite images in real time rather than having to send individual images back to Earth. 
• Whether orbital compute infrastructure could expand the space economy by a factor of ten, and reshape the balance of geopolitical and corporate power. 
• The idea of “large Earth models”—AI systems trained not on the text of the internet, but on continuous visual data from the physical world. 
• Why tech leaders increasingly believe AI data centers could move into orbit, powered by uninterrupted solar energy in space. 
• How falling launch costs from companies like SpaceX could make space-based computing economically viable within the next decade.

Mentioned on the Episode:

“Planet Successfully Runs AI in Space,” Planet

“Thales Alenia Space Reveals Results of ASCEND Feasibility Study On Space Data Centers,” Thales Alenia Space

“Is AI Putting Graduates Out of Work Already?,” The Economist

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The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

President Donald Trump is set to meet with Xi Jinping in Beijing for a high-stakes summit shaped by Iran war tensions, trade disputes, critical mineral flows, semiconductor controls, and an intensifying AI race. This episode breaks down the growing U.S.-China rivalry, the risks facing global markets and supply chains, and whether the world is entering a new era of economic fragmentation and technological competition.

Hosts:

Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

We discuss: 

• How President Trump’s high-stakes summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping comes at a moment of intense rivalry over AI, trade, semiconductors, and Taiwan.
• How the United States and China are locked into “mutually assured disruption” when it comes to trade, with China controlling critical rare-earth minerals and the U.S. restricting advanced AI chip exports.
• As Rebecca Patterson puts it: “If there’s not a happy hug between Trump and Xi on rare-earth minerals and chips, that might be problematic.”
• Whether Chinese AI firms like DeepSeek are catching up to American companies such as OpenAI and Anthropic despite U.S. semiconductor restrictions.
• The growing debate over AI safety and whether Washington and Beijing can cooperate on preventing dangerous applications of artificial intelligence while still competing for dominance.
• Why Taiwan remains the single biggest geopolitical risk hanging over global markets, semiconductor supply chains, and the future of the AI economy.
• How fears of a Taiwan crisis could ripple through global stock markets, especially tech and semiconductor companies tied to firms like TSMC, Nvidia, Intel, and Samsung.
• Why tariffs and supply chain disruptions continue to reshape global trade, with companies and governments from Europe to Southeast Asia forced to navigate a more fragmented global economy.

Mentioned on the Episode:

“At the Trump-Xi Summit, China Will Have the Upper Hand,” CFR.org

Chris McGuire, “How Trump Should Approach AI Talks With China: Targeted Dialogue, Maximum Pressure,” CFR.org

“Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI),” Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Ryan Mancini, “Trump’s Approval on Economy Hits New Low; 7 in 10 Expect Recession Next Year: Poll,” The Hill

Xinyi Wu, “China, Indonesia Launch Cross-Border QR Payments – A Boost for the Global Yuan?,” South China Morning Post

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The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

The scale of the SpaceX IPO is dominating financial headlines, but the more important story might be what the sale reveals about the structure of modern capital markets, corporate governance, and the blurry line between public and private investing. This episode unpacks what the numbers actually show, why much of the popular narrative is overblown, and what investors should actually be paying attention to.

Hosts:

Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

We discuss:

• How the SpaceX IPO could raise around $75 billion, making it the largest IPO in history, and value the company at $1.77 trillion.
• How subsequent IPOs by Anthropic and OpenAI could bring a wave of funding valued at close to $200 billion in total. 
• Why the equity supply panic is overblown.
• SpaceX's alarming governance structure, under which Musk serves as CEO, CTO, and chairman simultaneously, holding a supermajority of votes despite a minority equity stake.
• How growth equity, unlike traditional private equity, offers zero oversight, often granting founders supervoting shares and investor loyalty pledges that amount to anti-governance rather than governance.
• How SpaceX's initial index weight will be tiny, since only a small fraction of the company will actually be publicly floated.
• How the S&P's profitability requirement is a deliberate lesson from the dot-com bust.
• Why SpaceX's revenue projections sound dazzling but tell only half the story, given that estimated capital expenditure could far outpace revenue through the end of the decade.

Mentioned on the Episode: 

“IPOs: Number and Proceeds,” U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission

Jason Dean, “U.S. Officials Said to Discuss Taking Stakes in AI Companies,” The Information

Natalia Emanuel, Emma Harrington, and Amanda Pallais, “Remote Work Leaves Younger Workers Sidelined,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York

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The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy. 

This episode unpacks why the trade and investment imbalances between the United States and China have grown to record levels despite years of pressure to correct them, and how the imbalanced system looks increasingly likely to collapse under its own weight.

Hosts:

Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Guest:

Brad W. Setser, Whitney Shepardson Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

We discuss: 

• How China’s 2025 current account surplus shattered records at $735 billion, jumping nearly 60 percent in one year.
• Why China’s overall trade surplus looks modest as a share of its own GDP but is unprecedented in absolute dollar terms, and arguably as a share of the global economy.
• As CFR expert Brad Setser puts it: “Trade should be two way. We sell to you, you sell to us. Not just one way.”
• How cheap Chinese goods and bond-buying benefited U.S. consumers and borrowers, even as they hollowed out manufacturing and fueled financial froth.
• Why China’s real leverage has shifted from dumping U.S. Treasury holdings to controlling rare earths, critical minerals, and permanent magnets the Fed can’t print.
• How China masks its holdings by moving out of U.S. custodians, leaving official data badly understating what it actually owns.
• Why the Belt and Road Initiative backfired, turning roughly $1 trillion of influence-buying into resentment and unpaid loans.
• Why China could let its currency appreciate but won’t, since a weak renminbi keeps the export engine running.
• Why Chinese leader Xi Jinping refuses to shift toward a consumption-driven model, viewing direct cash transfers as “welfarism.”
• Why the upcoming G7 summit is unlikely to fix any of this, turning the fight into China versus Europe as the system risks collapsing under its own weight.

Mentioned on the Episode: 

Anne-Sylvaine Chassany, “Germany to Punish Ministries for Failing to Spend Funds Quickly Enough,” Financial Times

“A Conversation With Ambassador Jamieson Greer,” CFR.org

Brad W. Setser, “Time to Stop Forecasting China’s Surplus Away,” CFR.org

Mark Sobel, “Global Imbalances: Grandeur and a ‘Nothingburger’,” OMFIF

“The U.S.-China Trade Relationship: What’s Behind the Competition?,” CFR.org

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The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

As governments around the world ramp up defense spending, a new era of rearmament is reshaping economies, markets, inflation, and politics. This episode examines Japan’s dramatic shift away from its postwar pacifist identity amid rising tensions with China, ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, and growing uncertainty around the global security role of the U.S.

Hosts:

Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

We discuss: 

• Why the rearmament boom is globally synchronized and big enough to move fiscal balances and bond markets.
• How defense spending is colliding with already massive government debt, and pushing bond yields higher.
• Why Japan’s military transformation marks a significant reversal of its postwar identity.
• Why Japan’s debate over nuclear weapons remains emotionally raw more than eighty years after Nagasaki.
• How fear of China and doubts about the U.S. security umbrella are reshaping politics in Japan and Germany.
• How governments are trying to fund massive military buildups without cutting popular programs, and why bond markets may eventually force a reckoning.
• How rising military spending could fuel another wave of inflation, higher interest rates, and global market volatility, trapping central banks between fighting inflation and financing governments at war.
• As Rebecca Patterson puts it: “All this is happening when governments, frankly, can't afford more guns or butter because debt levels are very high.”
• How AI, drones, and cyberwarfare are rapidly changing the economics and strategy of modern conflict.
• How the new arms race is spilling far beyond the battlefield into tech, energy, supply chains, and the future of globalization.

Mentioned on the Episode:

David Kelly, “Five Scenarios for the Federal Debt,” J.P. Morgan Asset Management

“Fiscal Policy under Pressure: High Debt, Rising Risks,” International Monetary Fund (IMF)

“Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI),” Federal Reserve Bank of New York

“Majority of Japanese Support Constitutional Revision: Poll,” UPI

“Rebuilding Our Military,” The White House

“The True Cost of Peace: Rebalancing World Military Spending For a Sustainable and Peaceful Future,” United Nations

“World Economic Outlook: Defense Spending,” International Monetary Fund (IMF)

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The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

America’s 250th birthday is the talk of the nation. But the more important story might be what the milestone reveals about the fragile bargain between democracy and markets, and whether the republic can survive its own cultural divisions.

Host:

Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Guest:

Martin Wolf, Chief Economics Commentator, Financial Times

Mentioned on the Episode: 

Martin Wolf, The Crisis of Democratic Capitalism: A Diagnosis of Decline and Prescription for Repair 

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The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

In this episode of The Spillover, host Rebecca Patterson and former Federal Reserve Vice Chair Roger W. Ferguson Jr. reflect on the legacy of recently deceased former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan, and examine what may lie ahead for the Fed under its new chair Kevin Warsh.

Hosts:

Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Guest:

Roger W. Ferguson Jr., Steven A. Tananbaum Distinguished Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR); Former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman (1999–2006)

Description:

On this episode of The Spillover, cohost Rebecca Patterson speaks with CFR Distinguished Fellow for International Economics Roger Ferguson about Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting as Chair of the Federal Reserve, which played out largely as predicted.

To bring in fresh perspectives, Warsh has created five task forces. They cover communication, the inflation mandate, productivity and jobs, data collection, and a balance sheet framework. Well-led task forces have historically moved the Fed forward, but progress will likely be uneven and slower than hoped. As Roger Ferguson notes, “This is the kind of thing where you want to measure twice, cut once. Once you make the change, you're gonna have to live with it for a period of time.”

Current conditions point to a rate hike rather than an ease. Core inflation appears stuck above three percent, energy-driven price pressures from the Iran war remain unresolved, while labor market and financial conditions are resilient.

The Fed works with blunt tools and within limited frameworks. Its single national interest rate cannot target individual sectors like housing or specific prices, and its goal remains controlling inflation rather than propping up housing, or equity prices. The Fed also never established a clear framework for when and how to use its balance sheet as a monetary or financial-stability tool, or how quickly to unwind quantitative easing.

AI is currently acting as an inflationary force, not a disinflationary one. It is driving a surge in capital expenditures that should push market rates somewhat higher to balance increased demand for capital.

Patterson and Ferguson discuss the life of Alan Greenspan—including his daily engagement with the U.S. economy for over fifty years, his habit of tracking unconventional indicators like railroad car loadings, and the fact that he was more often right than wrong on major issues. As Ferguson notes, Greenspan was part of a group of economic policymakers in the second half of the 20th century that helped the U.S. economy grow globally, overcoming the Soviet Union.

Mentioned on the Episode:

Sebastian Mallaby, “Alan Greenspan Understood Power and Was Not Afraid to Wield It,” The Washington Post

“Federal Reserve Issues FOMC Statement,” Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve

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The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

In this episode of The Spillover, host Sebastian Mallaby and CFR President Michael Froman speak with former U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and World Bank President Ajay Banga about the global jobs challenge facing millions of young people in emerging markets. 

Hosts:

Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Michael Froman, CFR President

Guests:

Gina Raimondo, Distinguished Fellow, CFR; Former U.S. Secretary of Commerce (2021–2025)

Ajay Banga, President, World Bank Group

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The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.