I went on The Herd on FS1 in the US to talk about NFL futures. 

I joined Mitch and Pauly on Follow the Money to talk about which teams won and lost the NFL Schedule release. 

Adam Chernoff analyzes the initial wave of opening player props for the NFL Draft.

Want to bet on these props? Go here: bit.ly/rasbol

Adam Chernoff goes through each NFC Team discussing how they may use their first round pick and gives and update on the odds for each.

Adam Chernoff goes through each AFC Team discussing how they may use their first round pick and gives and update on the odds for each.

Welcome! 0:00

AFC East 4:10

AFC North 11:41

AFC South 19:59

AFC West 27:50

Questions 37:30

Kevin Cole joined the show to break down his offseason Improvement Index, a data-driven tool used to evaluate how NFL rosters have improved (or declined) year-over-year. His work at UnexpectedPoints.com has become must-read material for analytically-minded fans, bettors, and even NFL front office staff. Here are the key insights from our conversation:

What is Unexpected Points?

Kevin describes the site as catering to the "nerdy, numberier football fan." His content draws from past experience at PFF and DFS sites like RotoGrinders, focusing on analytics that aren't always directly tied to betting or fantasy, but absolutely inform both. In-season, he does deep game reviews and quarterback analysis. In the offseason, he shifts toward roster value, draft strategy, and team improvement projections.

How the Improvement Index Works

• Core concept: The Index projects a team’s upcoming season based on the prior year’s roster, then adjusts for offseason changes using a plus-minus metric similar to the NBA.

• Player value is measured using EPA-based on/off-field impact, smoothed through clustering of similar players.

• Participation data (i.e., snap counts) is used to weight contributions, with additional considerations for injury risk, coordinator changes, and scheme tendencies.

• Point differential: Each team has a point differential in the index. A +43 improvement doesn’t mean the Patriots will score 43 more points. It means their projected point differential is 43 points better than if they had kept their 2024 roster intact. That’s worth about 1.3 wins this year.

Roster Modeling Nuance

• Rotational players are harder to model, so Kevin smooths out usage based on prior snaps and coaching history.

• Fullbacks, centers, and low-snap positions get context-specific adjustments depending on scheme and replaceability.

• Coaching changes don’t radically shift the projection unless it’s a QB or team-level philosophy shift.

Team-Level Highlights

• Patriots: The biggest gainers, with upside tied to improved depth and variance at QB. Diggs only ranks as their 5th most valuable addition.

• Bears: Interior OL upgrades (Jackson, Dolman) don't rate as highly, but the total picture (especially adding Joe Thuney) is strong.

• Panthers: Ranked 3rd in improvement. Key reason? They didn’t lose much valuable talent, and the draft well based on surplus value.

• Browns: Gained ~5 points mostly from marginal improvements at QB (Pickett vs. projected backups). Still volatile due to QB uncertainty.

• Raiders: Geno Smith is a clear upgrade at QB, but the rest of the roster is roughly flat. Some natural regression expected after underperforming last year.

• 49ers: Losses overhyped due to player reputation rather than projected value. Comp picks help long-term roster strength.

• Jets: Show significant drop-off. Fields isn’t rated as an upgrade over Rodgers, and they lost valuable supporting pieces like Davante Adams.

• Seahawks: Metcalf loss hurts more than Kupp helps. Darnold is a mid-tier projection (QB18–25 range), though he did flash top-5 efficiency last year.

• Eagles/Chiefs: Bottom tier in improvement, largely due to difficulty sustaining elite rosters. Kevin notes he had Ravens and Bills power-rated higher than the Chiefs pre-Super Bowl.

Undervalued Teams?

• Colts: Slightly improved, with potential upside from Anthony Richardson or even Daniel Jones (yes, really).

• Browns: Again undervalued in the betting market due to lingering QB pessimism, despite a strong supporting cast.

What’s Next from Kevin?

Expect more work pre-draft and post-draft:

• Updated Improvement Index

• “Analytical big board” using surplus draft value

• Post-draft evaluations factoring positional value, trade value, and reach vs. value metrics

Follow Jake this UFL season at FantasyPoints and on X at @JakeTribbey 

Follow James all season for UFL updates at https://pfnewsroom.com/author/james-larsen/ and on X @JamesLarsenPFN

Follow Cody for all his UFL content this season at www.establishtherun.com and on X @cmain7

NFL Free Agency is in full swing! Which teams made the best moves? Which ones flopped? And most importantly—how do these signings impact betting markets? Join me, Adam Chernoff, for a live Q&A where I'll break down the biggest signings, grade team performances, and answer your questions about futures, win totals, and more.

Football Bettors newsletter: http://www.footballbettors.com

Offseason: 0:00

Deebo Samuel traded to Washington: 2:45

Sam Darnold tagged by Minnesota: 8:40

Matthew Stafford given a raise by LA: 12:43

Tee Higgins tagged by Cincinnati: 16:59

Justin Fields expected to be QB1 in Pittsburgh: 22:31

Davante Adams released by New York: 26:23

Saquon Barkley extended by Philadelphia: 28:38

Jonah Jackson & Joe Thuney added by Chicago: 29:27

Newsletter: 35:10

Seattle Seahawks run game increase: 38:21

Washington Commanders in 2025: 48:29

The final episode of the season is here! Super Bowl betting preview with my final score prediction and favorite prop bet. 

It is NFL Schedule Release day! In this episode I will discuss which teams have it easiest, which teams have it hardest and answer questions about any teams schedule for the upcoming season.

Adam Chernoff reacts to the Championship Weekend opening lines

The NFL Divisional Round is here, In this video, sports bettor Adam Chernoff breaks down each matchup of the weekend's most anticipated games. We’ll take a deep dive into the Kansas City Chiefs vs. Houston Texans, Detroit Lions vs. Washington Commanders, Los Angeles Rams vs. Philadelphia Eagles, and Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore Ravens, analyzing team strengths, key players, and what to expect from each matchup.

Divisional Weekend! (0:00)

Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs (2:54)

Washington Commanders @ Detroit Lions (12:05)

Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills (27:46)

LA Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles (41:07)

Questions (51:23)

Adam Chernoff reacts to opening point spreads and totals for the Divisional Round of the playoffs. 

Adam Chernoff previews NFL Wild Card Weekend. 

The Simple Handicap January 6th, 2024 

The Simple Handicap for Friday January 3rd, 2025 

The Simple Handicap for Tuesday December 31st, 2024.

Adam Chernoff reacts live to opening odds of NFL Week 18 and provides thoughts on each game. 

The Simple Handicap for Friday December 27th, 2024

Adam Chernoff reacts to Week 17 opening lines and recaps NFL Week 16. 

The NFL schedule drops this week, and with it comes a flood of hot takes and analysis. Join me LIVE at 11am ET as I break down 5 of the most common narratives you’ll hear this week — and separate the predictive insights from the media noise. We’ll cut through the hype and look at what really matters when it comes to handicapping the schedule.

The RAS NFL Service is live for 2025! Join in now to take advantage of early bird pricing and benefits here: https://www.raspicks.com/order/nfl

The Simple Handicap for Friday December 20th, 2024

The Simple Handicap for Thursday December 19th, 2024

Sports bettor Adam Chernoff talks about everything you need to know to get ready for betting Week 16 of the 2024 NFL season. From picks, predictions and game analysis to covering every point spread, total and important props, this video has you covered with insights that will help you make the most of this slate of games.

The Simple Handicap for Tuesday December 17th, 2024

Adam Chernoff reacts to Week 16 opening lines and recaps NFL Week 15. 

The Simple Handicap for Friday December 13th, 2024

The Simple Handicap for Thursday December 12th, 2024

The Simple Handicap for Wednesday December 11th, 2024

The Simple Handicap for Tuesday December 10th, 2024

Adam Chernoff reacts to Week 15 opening lines and recaps NFL Week 14. 

Round 1 of the NFL Draft is complete, and I’m breaking it down with my honest thoughts and takeaways. I’ll walk through the key picks, trades, and trends that stood out — both the ones I expected and the ones that surprised me. You’ll hear my perspective on: – Where teams made sharp, value-driven moves – Picks that didn’t make much sense to me – How front offices revealed their long-term strategy – What the draft told us about league-wide thinking at premium positions – Early reflections on how the betting markets lined up with what we saw This isn’t a highlight reel — it’s a practical review through the lens of team building, betting context, and what really matters going forward.

The Simple Handicap for Friday December 6th, 2024

The Simple Handicap for Thursday December 5th, 2024

Sports bettor Adam Chernoff talks about everything you need to know to get ready for betting Week 14 of the 2024 NFL season. From picks, predictions and game analysis to covering every point spread, total and important props, this video has you covered with insights that will help you make the most of this slate of games. Week 14! 

Week 14! (0:00)

Green Bay @ Detroit (1:33)

Atlanta @ Minnesota (6:39)

New Orleans @ NY Giants (10:23)

Jacksonville @ Tennessee (13:40)

Cleveland @ Pittsburgh (18:06)

Carolina @ Philadelphia (22:47)

NY Jets @ Miami (28:36)

Seattle @ Arizona (32:38)

Buffalo @ LA Rams (42:46)

Chicago @ San Francisco (46:30)

LA Chargers @ Kansas City (53:10)

The Simple Handicap for Wednesday December 4th, 2024

The Simple Handicap for Tuesday December 3rd, 2024

Recapping everything that happened in NFL Week 13 and reacting live to the opening odds of NFL Week 14 as they hit the board. 

The Simple Handicap for Wednesday November 27th, 2024

The Simple Handicap for Tuesday November 26th, 2024

Adam Chernoff reacts to NFL Week 13 opening betting lines and recaps NFL Week 12.

The Simple Handicap for Friday November 22nd, 2024

Adam Chernoff delivers a professional, betting-focused 2025 NFL Mock Draft built for serious bettors and draft analysts. This is more than just team-player pairings — it’s a market-aware breakdown of how each pick aligns with betting odds, positional value, and front office tendencies.

📈 In-depth analysis of team needs, scheme fits, and draft capital

🧠 Insights based on league intel, betting markets, and prospect evaluations

🗂️ Full first-round projection with commentary on trade possibilities

Perfect for bettors tracking draft props, sharp fans looking for an edge, and professionals studying the decision-making logic behind each selection.

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The Simple Handicap for Thursday November 21st, 2024

The Simple Handicap for Wednesday November 20th, 2024

The Simple Handicap for Tuesday November 19th, 2024

The Simple Handicap for Monday November 18th, 2024