The Rules of Investing - Détails, épisodes et analyse

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The Rules of Investing

Livewire Markets

Business & Entrepreneuriat

Fréquence : 1 épisode/12j. Total Éps: 100

The Rules of Investing is one of Australia’s top investing podcasts. We interview the leading investment minds from Australia and overseas to better understand their processes, philosophy, and current take on markets. After launching in October 2017, there have been over 100 episodes published - you can access all content on Livewire Markets, Spotify, Apple Podcasts and YouTube.

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The secret to finding stocks you can hold for 20+ years

Épisode 216

vendredi 13 septembre 2024 • Durée 48:59

While Warren Buffett's favourite holding time may be forever, the average holding period for a typical investor is now just 5.5 months. In a world where news, analysis and investment ideas are readily available at our fingertips, investors have quickly forgotten the benefits of long-term compounding and instead are focused on the next great stock, driven likely by their fear of missing out. We've all succumbed to it, there's no point denying it. How many of us jumped on the buy-now-pay-later trend, the lithium trend, the uranium trend, and now, the AI trend, as stocks soared to stratospheric heights? How many of us have attempted to hold on for dear life (HODL) as some of these companies crashed back to Earth? So, how can you identify the companies that continue to win over the long term? And by long term, I don't mean five-plus years, but 20. In this episode of The Rules of Investing, Janus Henderson's Josh Cummings outlines what makes a winning long-term stock - a process that has helped the team top the league tables for their consistent outperformance over the last five and 10 years - and provides a few examples.We also take a deep dive into artificial intelligence - and why Cummings believes AI will become even larger, more pervasive, and more impactful on our lives than we could ever conceive of today. https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/the-secret-to-finding-stocks-you-can-hold-for-20-years Timecodes 0:00 - Intro 2:16 - The secret to consistent long-term outperformance 3:30 - What the team got right and wrong over the last 12 months 4:38 - The impact of AI on mega-cap tech companies 7:19 - Is there too much "faith" in the AI theme? 9:48 - Is this the death of value investing? 11:58 - What it's like on the ground in the US right now 15:14 - Impact of cumulative inflation on businesses 18:13 - Nvidia's antitrust charges 20:42 - Factors that can help investors identify consistent winners 22:58 - Celebrity CEOs and red flags 25:20 - Should you really HODL? 26:58 - Smaller companies employing disruptive innovation 31:13 - Lessons from the team's meeting with OpenAI CEO Sam Altman 33:49 - Innovation is a scale game - why the big are only going to get bigger 35:01 - What could go wrong with AI (i.e. are we in for an iRobot scenario) 40:22 - Two things investors are getting wrong today 42:36 - Why you should invest in what you know (and trust your gut) 46:45 - One stock Josh Cummings would own if the market closed for 5 years

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Australia has all the ingredients to become a superpower in this space

Épisode 215

vendredi 6 septembre 2024 • Durée 36:53

Nowadays, it’s quite easy to get swept up in the negativity around our economic plight. Living costs are a very real concern, as are increasingly unaffordable house prices. But, as Australians, we’re also quite fortunate.

Our economy has enjoyed an unprecedented run of growth, we’re highly educated, we’re resource-rich, and we have opportunities – one of which lies in energy creation.

As Darren Brown, Co-Managing Director, Renewables Australia at Octopus Investments tells it, there is “a really unique opportunity for Australia to become a superpower in renewable energy”.

The conversation highlights the transformative changes in the energy sector, the strategic initiatives underway, and the opportunities for investors in the renewable energy market in Australia.

Brown's unique perspective, gained from his experience in both fossil fuels and renewables, provides valuable insights into the industry's evolution and the potential for long-term growth in the renewable energy space.

Note: This episode was recorded on 29 August 2024.

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What happened to that recession we were promised?

Épisode 214

vendredi 30 août 2024 • Durée 36:46

In 1990, then-Treasurer Paul Keating famously said that the country's economic downturn was the “recession that Australia had to have.”

Although Keating was responding to a poor GDP print and doing his best to control the narrative, at the start of the rate hiking cycle in mid-2022 most in the market spoke of an impending recession with almost as much certainty. As it stands today, said recession is yet to materialise.

So, what happened? And perhaps more importantly, what does it mean for investors?

In explaining why a recession hasn’t occurred, Sebastian Mullins, Head of Multi-Asset, Australia at Schroders points out that both the Australian and US governments pumped money into their respective economies—something we hadn't seen in a long time.

“During the GFC, you had targeted programs to bail out banks and stimulate the economy, but on average, you had a very, very loose monetary policy and very tight fiscal policy to preserve balance sheets – i.e. improve the fundamentals of both corporate and government balance sheets”, says Mullins.

“This time around, it's the reverse. We're hiking rates but the government's stimulating aggressively. So that has offset quite a bit of it”, says Mullins.

Regarding America, where most of the recession indicators have been flashing red, Mullins adds that the US went into the current downturn un-levered – at least compared to previous episodes.

“If you think about what the pillars of the economy are, you have the consumer, you have corporates, and you have the government”, notes Mullins.

The US consumer de-levered after the GFC, reducing their amount of debt to GDP, as did corporations. “You'd expect higher interest rates to crack corporates”, says Mullins, but that hasn’t happened.

And while the government has been hurt by higher rates due to the bigger interest payments on its debt pile, “If the two pillars of the private economy are fine and the corporates are all fine, then there's no recession”, says Mullins.

Great, no recession. What about inflation? So, how are you investing?

Why AI will have a bigger impact on the world than the invention of electricity

Épisode 213

vendredi 16 août 2024 • Durée 41:59

In this episode of The Rules of Investing, Livewire's Ally Selby learns about some of the companies that meet these criteria, why Rizzo believes AI will be far more transformative than investors currently think, as well as why he believes that investors are likely to do more harm waiting for a correction in some of these tech winners than a correction itself.

Plus, he shares what he is seeing on the ground in the US right now in terms of economic weakness, the stocks he believes are worth paying up for right now, and how he takes advantage of sell-offs when he holds very little cash.

Note: This episode of The Rules of Investing was recorded on Wednesday 14 August 2024.

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/why-ai-will-have-a-bigger-impact-on-the-world-than-the-invention-of-electricity

Timecodes:

0:00 - Intro
2:10 - Making sense of the volatility in tech stocks
3:11 - This is a healthy bull market correction
4:44 - The true transformational nature of AI
8:11 - Spotting the imposters from the real AI winners
11:06 - There are risks but we are starting to see business acceleration from AI
13:27 - Should you take advantage of sell-offs in AI companies?
15:08 - What Dom is seeing on the ground in the US in terms of economic stability
17:08 - How to identify winning tech stocks
19:53 - How Dom thinks about risk
22:01 - Dom's wishlist of stocks he would own at a cheaper price
24:15 - Stocks it is worth paying up for right now
26:32 - A deep dive into semiconductor stocks and cycles
30:20 - NVIDIA at the point of deceleration and what this means for investors
31:16 - How to take advantage of sell-offs with very little cash
34:19 - One thing investors are getting wrong about markets
34:53 - Biggest lessons Dom has learnt during his career
39:06 - One stock Dom would hold if the market closed for 5 years.

Why trying to time small caps is a "big waste of time"

Épisode 212

jeudi 8 août 2024 • Durée 42:18

Much has been made of the “Great Rotation” of late and the move away from highly concentrated large caps into small-cap equities, particularly in the US.

Greg Dean, founder of Langdon Equity Partners, is having none of it. When quizzed about whether the rotation was impacting how Dean and his team invest, the short answer was ‘no’.

Late last year, amid widespread commentary about 2024 being the ‘year for small caps’, Langdon wrote about the time and energy people spend talking about timing in small caps and called it a “big waste of time”. Dean feels a similar way about the rotation.

“The reality is if you wait for the perfect time, you've probably missed out on a lot of opportunity during that period when fewer people were interested”, says Dean.

Dean founded Langdon in 2021 on the concept of a “clean sheet of paper” – i.e. not being beholden to anyone but investors.

His philosophy is built on deep research and holding management to account, allowing him to ‘trust but verify’. He adds that speaking with management is a delicate balance that is often “executed poorly”.

“You think you have to be aggressive and definitive or you have to be a “yes” person and agree with everything that they're telling you, and neither of those is optimal”, says Dean.

In the following episode of The Rules of Investing, Dean delves deeper into small-cap investing, explains why he and his team take more than 300 individual company meetings each year, talks through the current portfolio tilt, and shares why the fund favours Europe over the US.

He also upacks two global small-cap stock ideas that highlight Langdon’s approach.

Note: This episode was recorded on 31 July 2024. You can watch the video or listen to the podcast below.

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/why-trying-to-time-small-caps-is-a-big-waste-of-time-and-2-long-term-stock-ideas

Timecodes

0:00 - Intro 1:36 - Investment background and founding Langdon 5:05 - Biggest influences over the journey and why small caps? 8:39 - Investment philosophy origin story 11:01 - When is enough, enough? 12:45 - The Great Rotation and current market conditions 15:31 - Company meetings how the best stand out 20:09 - Honing the craft 23:42 - Current portfolio: underweight US, overweight Europe 26:58 - Why cashflow is Landon's North Star 28:07 - Other non-negotiables 29:12 - Testing beliefs 30:40 - Navigating patience as a small-cap investor 32:57 - Small-cap stock ideas 37:52 - What are investors getting wrong about today's markets? 49:27 - Courage of conviction 41:29 - The five-year stock

How to dominate small caps like Roger Federer dominates tennis

Épisode 211

vendredi 2 août 2024 • Durée 20:14

In tennis, just as in investing, it's the points that you win that matter. After all, Roger Federer played 1,526 singles matches throughout his career, and while he only won 54% of the individual points within those matches, he walked away with the win 80% of the time.

Ausbil Investment Management's fresh-faced co-head of emerging companies, and portfolio manager for its small and micro-cap strategies, Arden Jennings, is focusing on just that.

"Stocks are just points. But it's the points that matter that win you the game. So for us, our largest detractor was still smaller than our 17th biggest winner. Even though we had an even spread of winners and losers, it was the ones that were successful that made it a good year," he says.

And a good year it was. The Ausbil MicroCap Fund returned 33.53% in FY24, while its Australian Small Cap Fund delivered investors a nice 25.73%. Since inception, these funds have returned 20.08% (since February 2010) and 24.17% (since April 2020), respectively.

So, where is the Roger Federer of Australian small caps seeing the most opportunity today? You'll find out in this episode of The Rules of Investing.

Note: This episode was recorded on 30 July 2024. You can watch the video or listen to the podcast below.

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/where-the-roger-federer-of-australian-small-caps-sees-the-most-opportunity-today

Timecodes:

0:00 - Intro
2:36 - Decisions that lead to outperformance in FY24
5:04 - Roger Federer's streak and lessons for investing
6:13 - Interest rate expectations
7:00 - Why the small-cap rebound can continue and the Great Rotation in Australia
8:03 - The stocks that will benefit - HUB24 (ASX: HUB), Zip Co (ASX: Z1P), Credit Corp (ASX: CCP)
9:24 - Wildcards that could impact investors' portfolios
11:41 - What to expect this reporting season

30-year property veteran: Australia has its head in the sand on housing

Épisode 210

vendredi 19 juillet 2024 • Durée 39:31

There's no supply in residential housing nor the majority of segments of the commercial real estate market. Sky-high construction costs are now too prohibitive. Bandaid solutions, like rent control, only backfire. And inconsistent state, federal and local policies are not helping either.

That's according to this week's guest on The Rules of Investing, Andrew Parsons, a founder and the chief investment officer of global listed real estate manager Resolution Capital.

While these factors continue to perpetuate Australia's housing problem, they are actually positive for long-term investors in real estate.

In this episode of The Rules of Investing, Parsons dives into Australia's property problem, outlines what he believes to be the solution, and shares why listed property is in for a strong three to five years ahead of us.

Note: This episode of the Rules of Investing was recorded on Wednesday 17 July 2024.

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/30-year-property-veteran-australia-has-its-head-in-the-sand-on-housing

Timecodes

0:00 – Introduction
2:06 – A fascinating, under-appreciated part of the market
3:45 – What is a REIT?
5:30 – The key distinctions between REITs and physical property assets
8:45 – Which do you prefer: an investment property or listed property assets?
9:50 – Where REITs sit alongside equities and fixed income
10:55 – What you’re really paying for when you buy real estate
12:50 – Why property development is so difficult currently
13:40 – Australia’s troubling property supply shortfall
15:04 – “We don’t want urban sprawl”
16:30 – How do you solve Australia’s big property problem?
20:50 – The effect of interest rates on listed property, versus equities and bonds
23:40 – How Resolution Capital is currently positioned

3 compelling long-term ETF ideas for investors still on the sidelines

Épisode 209

vendredi 5 juillet 2024 • Durée 43:40

Investors are too focused on interest rates and are subsequently underweight risk assets.

That’s the, albeit US-centric, view from Global X ETFs’ Head of Investment Strategy, Scott Helfstein.

He elaborates by saying that the US economy is looking a lot more like mid-cycle expansion than late cycle and that “you don’t want to be sitting on the sidelines”.

A fan of thematic investing, Helfstein goes on to highlight three big investment themes that he likes right now, including one offering the opportunity for true transformation, that’s available for the same price as the S&P 500.

Don’t miss the latest Rules of Investing Podcast.

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/3-compelling-long-term-etf-ideas-for-investors-still-on-the-sidelines

Timecodes

0:00 - Intro 1:12 - A unique background for an investment professional 7:17 - The current state of geopolitics 12:00 - Australia's position in the global landscape 14:10 - The appeal of thematic investing 16:42 - Where is the puck going? 22:53 - Sectors versus themes 26:48 - The role of thematic investing in a portfolio 28:46 - Nothing but ETFs? 30:27 - Ranking the big themes 34:22 - A theme that is flying under the radar 36:40 - Risks in thematic investing 38:32 - Mama's favourite son 39:49 - What are investors getting wrong? 41:07 - One theme for the next five years

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More please! Dr Don Hamson’s cure for the 'disappearing dividends' on the ASX

Épisode 208

vendredi 28 juin 2024 • Durée 39:14

Fully franked dividends are a prized asset of the Australian market. While the lack of growth is often lamented, plenty of self-funded retirees are content to dine on the distributions of Australia's big miners and banks.

And who can blame them - high commodity prices, particularly in iron ore and lithium, resulted in record dividends from the top end of town. However, after peaking in 2021 and 2022, dividends from mining companies are steadily declining.

Research from Commsec published late in 2023 showed that the 12-month forward dividend yield for the ASX200 has been below the long-run average of 4.7%, and dividend per share estimates have been cut by 14 per cent.

The good news is that Australian banks have been increasing their dividends whilst also enjoying surging share prices. There is also a long list of consistent dividend paying stocks that often fly under the radar.

In this episode of the Rules of Investing, Livewire's James Marlay speaks with Plato Investment Management's Dr Don Hamson to get his diagnosis on the case of the 'disappearing dividends'. Hamson insists that diversification remains a free lunch for investors, especially for those seeking stable and consistent returns. He also emphasizes that fully franked dividends continue to stack up as the backbone of an income-generating portfolio.

Timecodes:

0:00 - Introduction
1:43 - The outlook for dividends
8:27 - Dividends versus Fixed Income
10:25 - Dwindling dividends
13:08 - The dividend outlook for mining shares
17:00 - Tactics to combat declining dividends
20:07 - Australian banks - stable but expensive
22:10 - The case for diversification
25:15 - Winning by avoiding the losers
28:09 - What returns are realistic for Plato?
31:26 - A lesson from Medibank Private
34:10 - Don’t focus on the US election
36:23 - The stock most likely to be a 5-year resident in the Plato Australian Shares Income Fund

Recession a line ball as Australia groans under a massive debt load

Épisode 207

vendredi 14 juin 2024 • Durée 28:07

This time last year, PIMCO Portfolio Manager Adam Bowe told Livewire that there was a 50/50 chance that Australia would slip into recession. March GDP figures show that the economy grew at just 0.1 per cent, the slowest rate since December 2020. Today, Bowe says interest rates are sufficiently restrictive, and the chance of recession remains a ‘line ball’.

In this episode of The Rules of Investing, Bowe explains why interest rates in Australia don't need to go higher, why house prices have been immune to interest rate increases and where he is finding the best income opportunities right now.

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The Rules of Investing - Détails, épisodes et analyse

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