Jason Lisk and Tony Squares break down the biggest Week 4 moneyline underdogs and debate the best NFL upset picks on the board. They cover the biggest underdogs, compare popular and unpopular pool picks, and lock in their official selections from Tony, Jason, the model, and the “fade the public” angle.
00:00 - Opening the Week 4 upset hunt and reviewing the show format
00:59 - Week 3 recap: slog games, bad beats, and why variance matters
02:07 - Listener shoutout: the comment section’s four-for-four moneyline prophet
04:20 - Biggest dogs first: Tennessee, Miami, and why the long shots are tempting
05:50 - Baltimore and Minnesota: injuries, role changes, and why favorites can slip
07:10 - Miami’s coaching problems and why Tony won’t back them
10:31 - Divisional games on the slate: New England, Las Vegas, and Kansas City’s spot
12:41 - Chargers, Carolina, and why both offenses look hard to trust
14:44 - London game hesitation and the public’s Washington interest
16:36 - Dallas versus Houston: desperation spot, travel concerns, and Nico Collins
19:12 - Why the Jets become the fade-the-public pick
21:35 - Coin flips versus long shots: how to choose an upset target
25:23 - Three Upset Picks
36:15 - Closing thoughts
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