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The Polling Alley

Overton Insights

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Fréquence : 1 épisode/21j. Total Éps: 14

The Polling Alley, the Overton Insights podcast, breaks down the latest polling numbers nationwide, making sense of where voters stand on politics, policy, and so much more. Listen in if you're interested in what voters are really thinking as we uncover the public opinion trends shaping today's political landscape. Mark Cunningham, Overton Insights Poll Director and Olivia Michiels, Poll Analyst at Overton Insights, dive into insights about the latest poll numbers and trends.

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The Polling Alley: Episode 14

Saison 1 · Épisode 14

samedi 29 août 2026 • Durée 18:17

Seventy-one percent of Americans don't want data centers built near them, and it's becoming one of the most critical issues on the 2026 ballot. This week we dig into why the industry lost the messaging war before it started, where Trump's approval is dragging Senate candidates, and a seasonality quirk that may make summer polls lean more Democratic.

In this episode, we cover:

Why are data centers the most hated issue of the cycle? – A leaked Senate GOP campaign memo warned AI companies that opposition to data centers is threatening a key Ohio seat. We break down why the backlash crosses party lines, how candidates like Tom Tiffany in Wisconsin are flipping the script, and why roughly 70% opposition is showing up in state after state ahead of our upcoming Texas poll.
Is Trump's approval sinking the Senate map? – With net approval sitting between minus 20 to 26, we analyze the balancing act Republican candidates face as November quickly approaches.
What's behind the summer polling bump for Democrats? – Patrick Ruffini's review of roughly 3,300 Senate polls found a late-July-to-August lean toward Democrats that fades by Election Day. We discuss the leading theories, from reluctant Republican voters to likely-voter model gaps, plus Nate Silver's take using the Michigan Senate race as a live example.

POLLS & LINKS:

📊 Gallup polling on data center sentiment (~71% unfavorable): https://news.gallup.com/poll/709772/americans-oppose-data-centers-area.aspx

📰 Axios reporting on the Senate GOP campaign memo (Ohio): https://www.axios.com/2026/08/19/gop-data-center-memo-ai-election?utm_medium=referral

📊 Patrick Ruffini / Echelon Insights report on ~3,300 Senate polls: https://www.patrickruffini.com/p/why-senate-polling-is-always-worse

The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll. The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels.

Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines.

Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com

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Episode 13

Saison 1 · Épisode 13

vendredi 21 août 2026 • Durée 24:26

What an upset in the Florida Democratic Senate Primary! Plus, our take on Median Strategies "social experiment" and how it hurts the credibility of legitimate pollsters.

In this episode, we cover:

How did a $16 million establishment favorite lose to a candidate with under $1 million? – We break down Angie Nixon's grassroots upset over Alex Vindman in the Florida Senate primary, why Mark thinks Democrats' habit of nominating "boring but well-funded" candidates keeps failing, and what Nixon's win means for Ashley Moody and Republicans' hold on the seat.
The internet is not real life, (as we expected) Florida governor edition – Byron Donalds won with 48% of the vote, and James Fishback's enthusiastic online following translated to a distant third-place finish behind Jay Collins.
A pollster admitted it made up numbers, and it got worse from there – The Public Sentiment Institute (TPSI) had Fishback within striking distance while every legitimate poll had him near 10%. We discuss their memo explaining they moved Jay Collins voters to Fishback, the "social experiment" claims from Median Strategies, and what G. Elliott Morris and AAPOR are doing about it.

SHOW NOTES:
00:00 - Coming up: a shocking Senate upset and a fake poll
00:22 - Angie Nixon takes down a $16 million favorite
02:25 - Was this a Mamdani-style campaign? Not quite
04:00 - The governor's race goes exactly as polling predicted
04:21 - Byron Donalds wins by 22, Fishback finishes a distant third
06:37 - David Jolly vs. Angie Nixon: two very different Democratic bets
09:06 - Electability and the late-decider question
10:14 - The Fishback polling problem, TPSI
13:10 - The memo that made it worse: "we changed the votes"
15:40 - Median Strategies and the "social experiment" scam
17:30 - Why internal candidate polls need more scrutiny
21:04 - How to spot a credible poll when you're scrolling X

POLLS & LINKS:
📊 Echelon Insights (weekly platform usage, 27% X): https://echeloninsights.com/insights/august-2026-verified-voter-omnibus 🎙 G. Elliott Morris on excluding TPSI from aggregation: 🎙 AAPOR statement on fabricated data:

Episode 12

Saison 1 · Épisode 12

vendredi 14 août 2026 • Durée 17:16

Wisconsin just delivered another big polling miss. Mark and Olivia sit down and discuss how David Crowley pulled off an upset in the Democratic primary for Governor, what the miss says about polling in contested primaries, and why a new Siena poll shows Kathy Hochul's lead in New York starting to narrow.

In this episode, we cover:

- How did every Wisconsin poll get it so wrong? – Francesca Hong led primary polls by more than 20 points and then lost to David Crowley by less than a point. We break down what went wrong with the polling, how it compares to Michigan's Senate primary miss two weeks earlier, and why Mark pushes back on the idea that prediction markets deserve the blame.

- How the Minnesota Gubernatorial primary compares to Michigan and Wisconsin? Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan won the Democratic nomination for governor while former NFL sideline reporter Michelle Tafoya took the Republican side. We discuss why labels like "moderate" and "far-left" are getting harder to apply with any precision.

- Is New York's governor race actually competitive? A new Siena poll shows Kathy Hochul's lead over her Republican challenger narrowing to 10 points. We explain why Mark calls it "fool's gold" for Republicans and what would actually need to happen for New York to be in play.

SHOW NOTES:

00:00 - Coming up: a huge Wisconsin polling miss and a shrinking Hochul lead in New York
00:35 - David Crowley's shock win over Francesca Hong in Wisconsin
03:00 - Comparing Wisconsin's polling miss to Michigan's Senate primary two weeks earlier
05:54 - The betting markets flip overnight as votes come in
06:36 - Mark defends prediction markets against the "it's not real" critics
09:26 - Looking a the latest Crowley vs. Tiffany poll
11:12 - Minnesota's primary: Flanagan wins for the Democrats, Tafoya wins for the GOP
11:48 - Why "moderate" and "far-left" labels don't mean much anymore
13:43 - New Siena poll: Hochul's lead narrows to 10 points in New York
14:04 - Why Mark calls a competitive New York race "fool's gold"

POLLS & LINKS: 📊 Siena College poll, New York gubernatorial race: 📊 General election poll, Wisconsin governor's race (Crowley +3): 🎲 Kalshi, Wisconsin governor's race: The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll. The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels. Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines. Follow us on X and Facebook- @OvertonInsights Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com

Episode 11

Saison 1 · Épisode 11

vendredi 7 août 2026 • Durée 35:23

The polls had Abdul El-Sayed cruising by 15-plus points in the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary. He won by one. This week we dig into one of the worst polling misses in recent history and what to take from it.

In this episode, we cover:

How did Michigan's Senate primary polls fool almost everyone? – El-Sayed edged Haley Stevens by a single point while polls and prediction markets had him winning by a much larger margin. Plus, Mallory McMorrow, already out of the race, still pulled 4%. We break down why the polls showed a blowout, the role of open-primaries and seasonality in polling, and whether pollsters herded toward the Emerson numbers.
Texas and Wisconsin are closer than the headlines suggest – A new YouGov poll puts James Talarico up on Ken Paxton, but Randy calls Talarico's lead "fool's gold." We analyze the 2018 Cruz-Beto comparison, the money gap, and why Mark thinks Wisconsin's Democratic primary between Francesca Hong and David Crowley is far from settled.
Maine, hot takes, and a sleeper Senate race – Troy Jackson leads Susan Collins in fresh Hart Research numbers, and we explain why we still wouldn't bet against Collins. Plus Randy's case that summer generic-ballot polls are overstating Democratic support, and Mark's pick for the race nobody's talking about.

POLLS & LINKS:
📊 Emerson College Michigan Senate primary poll: https://emersoncollegepolling.com/michigan-2026-poll-abdul-el-sayed-leads-haley-stevens-for-democratic-us-senate-nomination/
📊 YouGov Texas Senate poll (Talarico 48%, Paxton 45%): https://static1.squarespace.com/static/67aa7aa3e284b002cd6a420e/t/6a713767d4ed824b91ea090d/1785804647961/Texas+Statewide+August2026.pdf
📊 NYT/Siena Texas Senate poll (June, tied 47%/47%): https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/07/01/polls/times-siena-texas-poll-crosstabs.html 🎲Kalshi, Texas Senate Race: 🎲Polymarket, Texas Senate Race: 📊 PPP Wisconsin governor primary poll (Hong 52%, Crowley 33%): 📊 Marquette Law School Wisconsin poll (Hong 38%, and 46% with leaners): 🎲Kalshi, Wisconsin Governor General Election: 🎲Polymarket, Wisconsin Democratic primary: 📊 Hart Research Maine Senate poll (Jackson 49%, Collins 45%): 📰 "Moderate Democrats Prepare for 'War' Against an Ascendant Left," The New York Times: 🎙 Patrick Ruffini (Echelon Insights) "nobody knows nothing" post on X:

Episode 10

Saison 1 · Épisode 10

jeudi 30 juillet 2026 • Durée 24:14

Will El-Sayed beat Stevens in the Michigan Democratic Senate primary? New Emerson polling has Abdul El-Sayed up 15 over Haley Stevens, and Gretchen Whitmer's endorsement may have made things worse...

In this episode, we cover:

Did Whitmer's endorsement backfire on Haley Stevens? – Fresh Emerson polling shows Abdul El-Sayed leading the Michigan Senate primary by 15 points, with a separate poll putting him up 11. We break down why Governor Whitmer's endorsement of Stevens right before Monday's debate seems to have cost her approval rating 16 points, and whether El-Sayed can hold the middle against Mike Rogers in a general election.

Could Ohio Split the Ticket? – Vivek Ramaswamy and Amy Acton are running dead even for governor, and John Husted is trying to defend a Senate seat with little name recognition against Sherrod Brown. We dig into why polls and prediction markets align, and why Ohio may be more like Michigan than some want to admit.

Who do voters actually consider "elite"? – A new poll from The Argument / Verasight asked Americans to define the elite, and the answer wasn't professors or journalists. We discuss what the results mean for how both parties talk about class, and why Democrats may be stuck choosing between a primary they can win and a general they can't.

📊 Emerson College Poll, Michigan Senate Democratic Primary: https://x.com/EmersonPolling/status/2...
📊 Tavern Research Poll, Michigan Senate Democratic Primary: https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/...
📊 NY Times/Siena Poll, Ohio Governor Race: 🎲 Ohio Governor Race, Kalshi: 🎲 Ohio Senate Race, Kalshi: 📊 The Argument / Verasight Poll, "Who Are the Elites?":

Episode 9

Saison 1 · Épisode 9

vendredi 24 juillet 2026 • Durée 21:15

Welcome back to The Polling Alley! These front-runners have been leading by double-digits in the polls, but contenders try to catch up as primaries near. We break down three governor's races and whether their campaign strategy seems to hold up.

In this episode, we cover:

Is Marsha Blackburn's Tennessee lead actually collapsing? – Blackburn led John Rose by 53 points and Monty Fritz by 58 points in May. Recent polling has her rivals climbing into the teens, and her decision to play prevent defense could give them an opening. We break down whether Rose's establishment money or Fritz's grassroots online army has a real shot at closing the gap before early voting ends.
In Florida, will Donalds' Blackburn-esque playbook work? – Byron Donalds holds a 5-point edge on Democrat David Jolly in general election polls, but first he has to win the nomination. James Fishback and Jay Collins are each pulling double digits and could split the anti-Donalds vote. We discuss Fishback's online-first campaign, Collins running on a DeSantis endorsement he doesn't actually have, and why a contested primary could push whoever wins further from the center.
Wisconsin Democrats can't agree – Francesca Hong is sitting at roughly 75% on prediction markets while the party's moderate lane split between two candidates, one of which who already dropped out then was pulled back in. We analyze what a fractured primary means heading into November.

POLLS & LINKS:
📊 Tennessee GOP primary internal poll, Blackburn - https://www.tennessean.com/story/news...
📊 TN GOP Primary, May 2026 Beacon Poll: https://tennsight.com/polls/may-2026/
📊 Tennessee poll, Wick - 🎲 Polymarket odds, Tennessee GOP primary - 📊 Florida primary poll, Donalds - 🎲 Polymarket odds, Florida GOP primary - 📊 Wisconsin head-to-head polling - 🎲 Kalshi odds, Wisconsin Democratic primary - The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll, alongside host and Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels. Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines. Follow us on Facebook - @OvertonInsights Follow us on X - @OvertonInsights Follow us on Youtube - @OvertonInsights Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com

Episode 8

Saison 1 · Épisode 8

jeudi 16 juillet 2026 • Durée 15:48

Two new polls of Michigan's Democratic Senate primary released within days of each other disagree by twenty points on who's leading the field. Plus, who are "double haters" voting for in November?

In this episode, we cover:

- Which poll do you believe in Michigan's Senate primary? Detroit News and Data for Progress released dueling surveys on the Democratic Senate primary. One shows Haley Stevens up 7 points. The other, an internal poll from the Abdul El-Sayed campaign, shows him up 13 points.

- Republicans, be careful what you wish for. Some Republicans are rooting for El-Sayed to win the primary, betting he's the weaker general election opponent. We discuss why that strategy could backfire.

- Meet the "double haters." A new G. Elliott Morris/Verasight poll finds one in five voters rate both parties below 50 on a feeling thermometer scale. These "double haters" favor Democrats by 26 points. We unpack why this group leans left, and the one stat in the poll that actually matters for the midterms.

The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll, alongside Michael Melendez, co-founder and pollster at Tactical Campaigns.

The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels.

Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines.

Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com

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Episode 7

Saison 1 · Épisode 5

vendredi 10 juillet 2026 • Durée 41:55

Two Senate candidates dropped out this week, and Maine Democrats scramble to find someone capable of beating Susan Collins.

In this episode, we cover:

- Who could replace Graham Platner in Maine and can anyone beat Susan Collins? Platner is out, and Maine Democrats have until the 27th to name a replacement with no clear heir apparent. We break down why PPP shows Troy Jackson leading while Janet Mills sits last, why Jared Golden's refusal to run changes everything, and why Collins is suddenly the favorite in a race Democrats thought they were winning.

- Paxton vs. Talarico: is Texas actually a coin flip? A new NYT/CNN poll has the race tied 47–47, with Talarico running eight points ahead of the generic Democrat. We analyze whether that's a strong candidate or a weak Paxton, why the betting markets still give Paxton a 75% edge, and what "getting platnered" could mean before November.

- Michigan gets even messier after McMorrow exits. With Mallory McMorrow out, it's Abdul El-Sayed vs. Haley Stevens, but McMorrow's name stays on the ballot and she's declined to endorse. We discuss why El-Sayed's frontrunner status may be overpriced, what Emily's List jumping to Stevens signals, and why Republicans are quietly rooting for the progressive.

- In Georgia we look at why Jon Ossoff is cruising, whether his influence can land Keisha Lance Bottoms in the governor's mansion.

The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll, alongside Michael Melendez, co-founder and pollster at Tactical Campaigns.

The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels. W

ant to stay ahead of the data curve?

Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines.

Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com

Episode 6

Saison 1 · Épisode 3

jeudi 4 juin 2026 • Durée 33:33

Pete Buttigieg and JD Vance are leading the primary fields in Overton Insights' latest national poll. This is a special episode breaking down the March 2026 Overton Insights national poll, from presidential primary matchups to findings about unpopular political commentators and what voters think about a military draft.

In this episode, we cover:

Buttigieg leads, but can he actually win? Pete Buttigieg tops a crowded Democratic primary field at 16%, two points ahead of "Undecided" and three points ahead of Gavin Newsom. We break down why his lead is almost entirely a function of a fractured field, what receiving zero percent of the Black vote means for his ceiling, and why Kamala Harris at nine percent — tied with Bernie Sanders — may signal she's done before she starts.
JD Vance leads the Republican primary, but trails behind Rubio in head-to-head ballot test. Vance tops a crowded GOP field, but loses by six points in a head-to-head against Marco Rubio. We analyze what's driving Vance's decline, why Rubio's bipartisan appeal may make him more electable, and whether Ron DeSantis is actually more viable than his last campaign suggests.
Hasan Piker, Candace Owens, and the name ID reality check. Our poll tested favorability on a range of political figures from Spencer Pratt to Ben Shapiro to Erica Kirk. The crosstab that broke X? Forty-two percent of people who still live with their parents view Hassan Piker favorably, one of the only groups with a net positive. We discuss what name ID data tells us about the echo chamber problem in political media.
Military draft, sports betting, and independent voter drift. We found that 66% of Americans oppose a Trump-implemented military draft, though Republicans split nearly 50-50 when Trump's name is attached. We also cover sports betting sentiment (47% oppose legalization in their state) and look at how independents are tracking much closer to Democrats than Republicans in this poll.

The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Director of Polling and founder of the Beacon Poll and is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels.

Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines.

Episode 5

Saison 1 · Épisode 5

mercredi 8 avril 2026 • Durée 49:38

Maine's Democratic Senate primary has a clear frontrunner in Graham Platner, but while he is now polling better than Susan Collins, can this momentum last in a general election matchup? Plus: does who pays for a poll tell you everything about the results? In this episode, we cover:

Is Graham Platner the inevitable Democratic nominee in Maine? New polling shows Platner leading incumbent Governor Janet Mills by 40 points in the primary and beating Susan Collins by nine in a general election head-to-head, while Mills trails Collins by three. We break down what the numbers mean for the race, whether Mills drops out before the primary, and how Platner is running the "Zohran Mamdani playbook:" anti-establishment, populist, and seemingly scandal-proof.

Is the Texas Senate runoff tightening, or is this poll just Democratic wishful thinking? A new GQR poll, commissioned by the Democratic Senate Majority PAC, shows Ken Paxton leading John Cornyn by five points. We analyze who GQR is, why the poll's methodological choices matter, what the SAVE Act has to do with Trump's endorsement calculus, and why Mark still thinks Cornyn wins despite his underdog status.

Can you trust a poll paid for by the group that wants a specific answer? — A Morning Consult survey with "Gambling is Not Investing" asks adults whether prediction markets are gambling. We dissect how leading question sequences can manufacture results, why internal polls can be more accurate than public ones, and whether prediction markets are closer to futures trading than sports betting.

Hot takes: Spencer Pratt for mayor of Los Angeles? Mark makes what he calls his boldest prediction yet. Reality TV villain Spencer Pratt, whose house burned down in the Palisades fires, could pull off the biggest upset in modern political history against incumbent Karen Bass.

The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll, alongside Michael Melendez, co-founder and pollster at Tactical Campaigns.

The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels.

Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines.

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The Polling Alley - Détails, épisodes et analyse

Détails du podcast

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Liens partagés entre épisodes et podcasts

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