The Odd Years – Détails, épisodes et analyse

In 2020, Donald Trump's considerable margin of victory among white working-class voters was expected, but his success in winning a larger share of the Latino and black vote was not. Amy's latest guest, Republican Pollster Patrick Ruffini, argues that Trump's advances with these voters is part of a more significant realignment in our politics. Amy talks to Patrick about his fascinating new book, "Party of the People: Inside the Multiracial Populist Coalition Remaking the GOP." The pair discuss whether Trump will be able to keep this coalition in 2024 and the influence of culture on voting patterns.

Host Amy Walter confesses her love of Apple TV's For All Mankind and the magic of its decade-spanning montages and storytelling to none other than the show's Executive Producers and writers, Ben Nedivi and Matt Wolpert. As season 4 of the show launches, the trio goes deep into the show's origin [03:28]; whether we should consider the show science or fiction [06:57]; taking a closer look at Gary Hart, Al Gore, and Ellen Wilson's journey in FAMK to the highest office in the land [21:19]; the creative process, electoral maps and fictional news reports featured in the montages [16:33; where the show will go as it catches up to our actual reality [24:22]; grieving the loss of beloved characters [37:04]; favorite political reads [39:53]; and much, much more.

Catch up on #ForAllMankind, and its Season 2, 3 & 4 montage openers, on AppleTV+.

We originally asked our guest today, Michael Podhorzer, to come on to talk about voter demographics. Mike was the longtime political director for the AFL-CIO. He’s now a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress and he writes a Substack called Weekend Reading. And Mike has been one of the pioneers in Democratic circles using data and analytics to inform campaign strategy.

After we invited him on, President Biden had his terrible debate performance and the entire presidential race took a sharp turn. So we’re going to start with the news, and then later we’ll get into some of his big pictures thoughts on horse race polls, education polarization (he has differing opinions from our last guests on this topic), and what he calls “the anti-maga coalition.”

Since news is moving fast right now, we recorded this conversation on Tuesday, July 9 at 2pm.

Donald Trump is very popular in rural America. Drive down a rural stretch of road, and you are still likely to see Trump flags waving in the breeze or the Trump logo painted on the side of a barn. Rural parts of America have always been conservative-leaning. But Republicans now dominate rural politics from the top of the ticket to the bottom. 

There have been plenty of books written about how and why Republicans, and Trump in particular, have thrived in rural parts of the country. Our guests today have one of the newest additions to the mix.  Dan Shea and Nick Jacobs are professors at Colby College, and their book is “The Rural Voter: The Politics of Place and the Disuniting of America.” Dan and Nick conducted 10,000 surveys of rural voters. They dug into hundreds of years of voting history to try and understand the voting patterns we are seeing today, and to provide a more nuanced picture of rural voters. 

The Cook Political Report's David Wasserman, Jessica Taylor and Erin Covey answer your mailbag questions this week.

They weigh in on what Trump's conviction will mean for Republicans in down-ballot races; they go into the weeds on their process for rating two congressional districts in California; they discuss Senate races in Virginia and Minnesota; and they explain why they don't believe in what some are calling a "reverse coattails" dynamic in the presidential race.

Amy talked with Republican pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson. Kristen is the founding partner of Echelon Insights, an opinion research and analytics firm. You've likely seen her on CNN, Fox, ABC News or many other political programs. She hosts her Sirius XM program, The Trendline with Kristen Soltis Anderson.

Amy and Kristen started their conversation with the day's current events, the arraignment of former President Trump in a Manhattan courtroom [02:00], and what it means for 2024. They also discussed a DeSantis vs. Trump matchup [07:00], the effect of Roe vs. Wade on the midterms [18:00], millennial voters [21:00] and the state of the political polling [29:00].

Cook Political Report subscribers can access bonus content, full transcripts, and video recordings.

If you listen to this podcast, you’ve probably heard of the so-called education divide in American politics with those with college degrees increasingly supporting Democrats and liberal causes and those without college degrees, increasingly supporting Republicans and conservative social issues.

On today's show, Amy talks with Matt Grossman, Director of the Institute for Public Policy and Social Research and professor of political science at Michigan State University and Dave Hopkins, associate professor of political science at Boston College. They are the co-authors of a book coming out this fall called Polarized by Degrees.

Matt and Dave explore how this divide came to be and its impact on voting behavior. But they also look at what the degree gap says about which political party has power in the American culture - in corporate board rooms, on college campuses, and in the media - and why that's created a "perpetual cultural war."

Amy Walter is joined by her colleague, Cook Political Report Senior Editor and Election Analyst David Wasserman.

First, they answer a listener's question on partisan realignment, particularly among education lines. Next, they dive into the question of which House Republicans won by Biden in 2020 are the most endangered.

Ask us your questions here or by calling 202-739-8520 (press 8). Remember to say your name and where you are calling from.

Amy talked with Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg. Anna is a senior partner of the polling firm GQR. In 2022, she polled for several high-profile House and Senate campaigns, including Senator Mark Kelly from Arizona, Senator Michael Bennett from Colorado, and Congresswoman Kim Schrier from suburban Seattle.

Amy and Anna started with a conversation about why some polls, including some by Democrats, overestimated Republican strength in 2022 [01:27], and the role abortion and the Dobbs decision played for Democrat successes last year [10:19]. They also discussed 2024 and why Anna thinks regardless of who the GOP nominee may be, the Republican party remains defined by Trump [12:16].

And finally, they talked about the issue of crime and how, in Anna's words, Democrats are "too scared of the left and they're too scared of the right." [31:50]

Cook Political Report subscribers can access bonus content, full transcripts, and video recordings.

Amy is back with a conversation about the new show now streaming on Max, The Girls on the Bus.

The show stars Melissa Benoist as Sadie McCarthy, a scrappy and ambitious journalist covering a fictional Democratic presidential primary. It follows Sadie and three other women reporters as they navigate the campaign trail, while juggling their careers, personal lives — and relationships with one another.

The Girls on the Bus is inspired by the book “Chasing Hillary” by Amy Chozick, a former New York Times reporter. Amy’s book chronicled her experiences covering Hillary Clinton’s 2008 and 2016 presidential campaigns.

Amy Walter talks with Amy Chozick and Julie Plec, co-creators and executive producers of The Girls on the Bus, and actress Melissa Benoist. They discuss politics, journalism, and turning campaign coverage into a television series.