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The Reserve Bank has followed through on what ‘the markets’ and bank economists were expecting, with a 0.50% OCR cut today.

Inflation is considered to already be back in the target range (official data due Tuesday 16th) and the economy is weak, with the RBNZ noting we have ample spare capacity in NZ.

Check out today’s reactionary pod for Nick and Kelvin’s take on the decision.

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This week it's a special edition guest PLUS Monday data round up.

Along with Kelvin, Nick welcomes Richard Vaughan, Regional Director at Opteon Solutions to the pod. 

As Nick is fresh off a family holiday in Rotorua, he offloads to Kelvin and Richard to fill him in on a busy week for the property market, including: 

• The Corelogic Home Value Index results for August.
• Stats NZ Census data, including home ownership figures
• Government announcement to underwrite new developments
• RBNZ data on loan terms chose in August
• Economic data on business confidence and filled jobs. 

That's all before a detail preview of the Reserve Bank Monetary Policy Review, and OCR decision coming up on Wednesday (reactionary pod pending Kelvin's Jury Duty and Nick's Sydney trip).

Of course, there's still room for a bit of sports chat at the end, including Richard's pride in his Olympic gold medal winning niece Tara Vaughan (K4 500), and the NRL Grand Final. 

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It’s a busy period at the moment for work travel and holidays, so this week’s episode is appearing a few days early – and we kick things off by looking at NZ’s $1m+ property markets, some of which are no surprise (e.g Auckland, Queenstown), but also some which aren’t quite as obvious.

Meanwhile, the recent economic data – such as the NZ Activity Index – hasn’t done anything to change the strong odds that the OCR is cut again on 9th October, which will keep the downwards pressure on mortgage rates. The effects of that are already showing through in mortgage lending activity, which is rising, with low-deposit activity also picking up.

Looking ahead, we’re awaiting filled jobs data, business confidence, dwelling consents, and figures on the loan terms being chosen by new borrowers – short fixes have been popular lately, so it’ll be interesting to see how August’s figures shape up.

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With Kelvin away on holiday Nick calls up Mark Harris from New Zealand Sotheby's International Realty hear what's going on the premium property market, including the always-of-interest Queenstown Lakes district. 

Mark also speaks about the impact of the foreign buyer ban and the potential for it to be loosened in order to increase foreign investment into the NZ economy. 

Mark then delves into other policy changes - shortening of the Brightline test, reintroduction of interest deductibility, loosening of LVRs and introduction of DTIs. It's all covered in a wide-ranging chat which also includes a roundup of last week's data releases - importantly the GDP result for Q2, and what it could mean for the RBNZ's next OCR call on October 9.

And make sure you download the latest monthly chart pack to keep at your side for future reference.

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Following the latest update to the CoreLogic Mapping the Market tool, visualising values and value change by suburb, Nick and Kelvin discuss some of the results as well as the awesome level of info freely available to anyone who's interested. The results illustrate the recent weakness of the property market, but also the importance of keeping a long term view as the better-looking 12 month view shows.

Then from an economic perspective there's plenty to sink your teeth into (or should it be to swallow your ears?) with both net migration and rental prices continuing to slow. 

The rental price data was also part of the broader price indices tracking from Stats NZ and on that note things continue to look good that inflation will be back below the 3% annual rate by the end of the quarter. 

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A week on the road, combined with the latest HVI data and RBNZ lending stats leads Nick and Kelvin to discussing all the considerations for picking the term of fixed loans. 

There's also Stats NZ building work put in place data for Q2 to cover off the other key topic of the moment - construction. While caution remains, there appears to be signs of optimism, though we also wouldn't get carried away with any rays of sunshine foreshadowing the dawn of summer. 

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Kelvin's article is the main source of conversation this week, as the recent lift in upsizers and smaller investors takes focus, as well as a look into who are securing recent new builds. 

This also flows well into a chat about the latest RBNZ lending data looking into market reaction from looser LVRs and DTIs. Another key point of note reamins the higher levels of bank switchers too.

From a broader economic perspective there's a promising result from the recent business confidence survey, but expectations still remain in check from both consumer confidence and filled jobs data. Plus, there's also reason to remain cautious of the encouraging building consent figures.

Lastly, a deeper look into regional business costs comes courtesy of a question from Nathan and the granularity of the Cordell construction cost data. 

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This week, Nick chats to Cam Muggeridge, Adviser for Loan Market Central, in Auckland.

Cam has extensive knowledge of the lending sector, insurance, and property development industry. With his experience coming up through the advisor world, Cam has a thorough understanding of the home loan process and a passion for making that process easy to understand and as stress-free as possible for his clients.

In this chat with Nick, Cam outlays how the market has reacted to the recent fall in the OCR. How it has seen enquiries from both new and existing clients interested in making the reduction work for them.

Cam also details what the discussion looks like when it comes to breaking fixed rates with banks and how to manage expectations and stress levels in the new decreasing interest rate environment. 

With his background in property development, Cam also offers insight into his conversations and expectations for the still-vulnerable construction sector.

Lastly Cam ponders the impact of open banking on NZ.

Cam can be contacted on cameron.muggeridge@loanmarket.co.nz, 027 687 5785 or google for him and the rest of the team at Loan Market Central. 

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This week, off the back of the release of the latest Monthly Chart Pack, Nick and Kelvin discuss the stats of listings on the market, both for sale and for rent. 

There are so many factors to consider, including migration, investor regulations, local job markets and first home buyer activity and the truth is there's no easy explanation of why the markets are where they are currently at. The latest read of data can help though.

Elsewhere there's REINZ latest release to pore over and a bunch of economic data, essentially reiterating the struggling economy.

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5 days later and the OCR cut to 5.25% still feels like big news. Since the call from the RBNZ, Nick and Kelvin have both been out in the market gathering responses from the market and today Nick details some figures to help answer the question "how far do interest rates need to fall before the dent-to-income restrictions kick in?"

Kelvin then takes us through the release of the CoreLogic Housing Affordability report for Q2 and plenty of macro-economic releases, including a few of the 'softer', but more frequent data series that the RBNZ are also paying closer attention to.

This month's video is now on YouTube.

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In this quick podcast Nick and Kelvin give their reaction to the just-released MPS and with it, a drop in the OCR.

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With the Labour market stats covered off in the reactionary pod last week, Nick and Kelvin's minds turn quickly to the big release from the RBNZ this week, their Monetary Policy Statement.  

There's has been plenty of speculation, criticism and advice about what to do but ultimately it's hard not to see the Bank being consistent with their plan to err on the side of caution and delay any loosening until inflation is truly under control, with concrete data to support it. 

In other news, the Pain & Gain report for Q2 reflected the market in retreat and first home buyers remain active in comparison to other buyers. 

Lastly, how lucky were the ABs and NZ Rugby that Olympic gold-medal fever took over to detract from a pretty woeful performance in front of a disappointing crowd in Wellington? Not that it bothered Nick and his son, in attendance, too much. 

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This week, Nick chats to Michelle Isemonger, Adviser for Loan Market East, in Auckland.

Michelle brings a youthful exuberance to being an advisor while drawing extensively from the successful experience around her.

Nick and Michelle cover a lot in this chat, from first home buyer priorities to mover preferences, all the way to what's going on with interest rates and the basis for deciding how long to fix your mortgage.

Plenty of regulatory chat in there too, from the shortening of Brightline test to all the CCCFA changes over the years, this discussion will give all listeners plenty of ammo when it comes to understanding and discussing the current housing market.

Michelle can be contacted on michelle.isemonger@loanmarket.co.nz or google for her and Team Patton. 

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In this quick podcast Nick and Kelvin give their reaction to the just-released Labour Market stats for Q2.

Nick reckons they're pretty 'meh' and Kelvin's take is that it probably reduces the chance of a cut to the OCR, as some bank economists have called for, next week. 

Recent volatility across global financial markets, particularly Japan, has thrown a bit of a spanner in the works, but ultimately we expect the RBNZ to hold the line in the MPS next Wednesday. Though they are likely to use the statement to reset expectations for inflation and monetary policy for the rest of the year.

Things will then turn pretty quickly, to how many and how fast cuts are going to come, once the RBNZ primes the market for the first one.

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In exciting news for the CoreLogic Research team, and fellow housing data nerds, we've now got a brand new index to measuring housing value change over time!

The launch of the CoreLogic hedonic Home Value Index firstly reported a further fall in property values in July, the fifth month in a row for the 'renewed downturn'. This brought with it plenty of discussion as to how to classify the weakness which then flowed on to some of the detail into the index itself - including what even is a hedonic regression index? Ultimately it's a better way to measure value over time. Nick and Kelvin cover off some of the detail, but there's plenty of technical documentation on the CoreLogic website, along with the weekly back series and plenty of FAQ to satisfy the data scientist and modelling analysts out there.

In other property and macroeconomic news the latest filled jobs data offers a good preview of the official labour market stats out this week and Nick add a bit of 'actual new build' data to the reporting of building consents. 

Plus, business confidence data, RBNZ lending figures and a token nod to the ever-entertaining Olympics following a weekend where the guys' kids consider if they could be Olympic athletes in the trampoline or 100m sprint!

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This week the guys chat about June lending data from the Reserve Bank and improving consumer confidence data. There's always a bit below the surface to pay attention too so the quieter week for data allows for a deeper look into these data. 

Also, what's behind NZ townhouse boom? That's the question Kelvin posed as he delved into the Market Trends dataset to understand the impact on overall stock of all the townhouses we've been consenting and building, particularly in Auckland.

Then a look ahead to the launch of the new Hedonic Home Value Index and plenty of other data coming your way. 

Lastly, Nick passes on some of the wisdom gained from Dominick Stephen's latest presentation - including a new term for the lads -"Slowbilisation".

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Following their own BSOD issues amid the CrowdStrike nightmare, the guys finally get a chance to catch up to review the week that was in the property market. 

As it turns out it was a good chance to take stock of the overall market, amid the release of the latest CoreLogic Monthly Chart Pack and monthly video. 

REINZ' latest data for June also provided an opportunity to assess the latest movements in Auckland and following the initial reactionary podcast, Nick and Kelvin wrap up the market response to the CPI inflation results for Q2. Upshot - interest rate cuts will be sooner.

Lastly, and there'll be more to follow on this one, the new CoreLogic Hedonic Home Value Index was previewed in a webinar last week, ahead of go live on August 1, so keep a look out for that one.

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In this quick podcast Nick and Kelvin give their reaction to the just-released CPI data for Q2.

Headline inflation is now just above the target band of 1-3% but there's plenty of detail and nuance to discuss. Most importantly, what will the RBNZ Monetary Policy make of it when they next meet on 14 August?

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Every week seems to be coming with a little bit more hope of relief for mortgage holders and this week is no different. Following the change in tone of the RBNZ's OCR statement last week, we can now add weak economic data in the form of the NZ Activity Index for June, migration turning negative and further weakness for the property market. 

The construction industry continues to go through tough times too, though at least from a consumers perspective this means the cost to build is decreasing - as the Cordell Cost Construction for Q2 illustrated.

All up it's been a busy week of property data, including Reserve Bank data on the tenure of loans chosen by borrowers in May, rental price figures, CoreLogic Buyer Classification for June and hot off the press REINZ sales for June. 

Plus, Nick supplied RNZ with some data on 'accidental landlords'.

That's it on a tough weekend for the English (rugby, football) and a good one for the Spanish (tennis, football, Sail GP)…

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This week, Nick chats to Dan Bailey, Adviser for Loan Market Capital & Coast.

Before Nick and Dan get into the advisor world, including Dan's experience of the current market, the three guys quickly review the just-released OCR review. In the review, the RBNZ held the rate at 5.5%, but notable softened their stance of the economic environment, increasing chances of a 'sooner than later' cut to the OCR.

Dan has a long and successful career in banking and finance and with his knowledge of the Lower Hutt and Wellington markets in particular, he has great insight into the impact of regulation, government intervention and a costly new build market. 

Plenty of food for thought as we navigate a still-challenging and always intriguing property market.

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There's plenty of property data and news to get into this week as Nick welcomes back Kelvin from a week away from the pod.

The CoreLogic House Price Index showed further struggles for the housing market, particularly in Auckland, but perhaps the biggest news came from the Housing Minister who detailed the Government's 'Going for Growth' strategy which is all about improving the availability of land for more properties - going up and out. 

There's also filled jobs data providing insight on our softening labour market and dwelling consent figures illustrating the still-in-decline construction sector.

And it's a big week coming up - OCR decision on Wednesday, which will come with a reactionary and guest podcast special. 

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With Kelvin away, Nick calls up Ed McKnight, Resident Economist at Opes Partners to discuss everything that's going on in the market right now. 

Nick and Ed talk through the couple of data releases from last week which are limited to ANZ's confidence survey data and RBNZ lending figures, but they provide plenty of fodder for conversation on the broader market dynamics. Why is confidence so low and where did the big jump in new lending come from?

Being 1 July there are also a number of changes which affect the market from today, including the shortening of the Brightline test, introduction of DTI limits and loosening of LVR restrictions. Nick and Ed talk through all the implications of those changes as well as expectations for the OCR and interest rates. 

Throw in the news of Resimac ceasing new lending operations in NZ and you've got a broad AND deep analysis of the NZ mortgage market as well as an assessment of both investor and owner occupier prospects. 

Check out Ed's work and the team at Opes Partners at https://www.opespartners.co.nz/

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How real was the property value growth experienced at the end of 2023? Off the back of the CoreLogic housing chart pack release as well as the REINZ HPI for May, Nick and Kelvin question whether we're in a renewed downturn, or whether it's essentially same one as last year.

Sounds a bit grim for homeowners and add in a still-struggling economy (despite GDP expansion in the first quarter of the year) plus a few isolated incidents (ferry running aground, Northland power tower down, air force plane being unreliable) and it appears a pretty bleak picture for Kiwi right now. 

In more promising news the Government's proposal to make it easier to add granny flats to existing properties sounds sensible, albeit unlikely a game changer. 

The monthly video is now live, give the extra podcasts last week a listen and keep an eye out for Kelvin's "thoughts from the road" coming this week. 

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This week, Nick chats to Nigel Ho, owner of and mortgage advisor at Agile Financial Services in Christchurch.

Nigel has a long and successful career in the financial services industry with a unique experience in helping new migrants understand their financial situation, especially how it applies to the possibility of buying a home in NZ.

Nigel's recent interactions also include with Mum & Dad investors keen to test their ability to buy an investment property and Nick also asks about the potential impacts of the removal of the first home buyer grants.

Nigel is a proud, parochial Cantabrian who knows his stuff, providing insight into the most important topics of conversations with clients which includes considerations of where to next for interest rates.

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In this quick podcast Nick and Kelvin give their reaction to the just-released GDP data for Q1.

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More property market data this week and with it more evidence of the stuttering recovery, to the point where the old 'dead cat bounce' conversation has reared its head. 

The latest CoreLogic Mapping the Market interactive report showing 221 of the 938 suburbs experiencing a drop in property values of at least 1%, including ten which fell by at least 5% over the three months to June.

In other data releases from last week, net migration is growing but the rate of growth is slowing - particularly due to Kiwi leaving our shores. Aligning to the theme of slower growth, rental prices also follow the trend, and there'll be plenty of eyes on this week's GDP release for Q1 to see how the broader economy has performed.

There's also RBNZ data about the fixed rate loan tenure people are choosing - why are people staying at the shorter end and what could it mean?

Keep an eye out for the monthly chart pack and monthly video, both out this week.

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With no external data releases to consume and interpret, this week it's all about CoreLogic data. Lead by the CoreLogic House Price Index for May, Nick and Kelvin discuss the results, in particular the recent decline in Auckland property values. 

Given the chance to go a bit deeper into the results, market drivers like listings, construction and buyer activity - thanks to Buyer Classification data for May - all help to paint the picture of what's driving (or not driving) the market right now and what could be in store for the rest of this year.

Add in comparisons in value to the recent peak, the even-more-recent-trough and pre-COVID and you've got a statistics bonanza!

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This audio is the recording of an in-person event, hosted by the Auckland Property Investors Association titled "The Elephant in the Housing Room: What the Experts See When the Rest of Us Aren't Looking".

Moderated by Nick Goodall, Head of Research at CoreLogic NZ, featuring a panel of Opteon MD, Richard Vaughan, Chief Executive of the Property Council, Leonie Freeman and Chief Economist at CoreLogic NZ, Kelvin Davidson.

This covers a number of topics that haven't generally got as much coverage as they deserve, such as the impacts of climate change on housing, the opportunity of build-to-rent, the difficulties of infrastructure investment and the generational changes which will have an influence over the next few decades.

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This week there's a lot of chat about lending. Following the RBNZ confirming the framework and timing of the debt-to-income (DTI) restrictions, coming 1 July, Kelvin gives and overview of the details as well as potential implications. 

Showing off his Nostradamus qualities this came hot on the heels of his own analysis of the latest lending stats in his 10 things to know about the mortgage market right now article.

There's also a bit of chat about the Government's Budget 2024, though in truth it was pretty uneventful when it comes to housing implications - tax cuts and their potential impact on inflation being the main topic of conversation.

Elsewhere there was filled jobs data, business confidence survey results and a bit of a quirk in the latest building consent figures. 

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This week, Nick chats to Aaron Cooke, adviser from the award winning  Loan Market Highland Park Office.

Aaron is a passionate and articulate advisor with his finger on the pulse of all things property. 

Today's discussion covers a myriad of topics - honing in on first home buyer mentality and behaviour, the impact of the 'transaction chain' slowing down activity, the state of the new build market and some great detail on the Council buy-out process following the flooding events of yester-year. 

All the topical influences are covered too - from the Reserve Bank's DTIs, to the removal of first home buyer grants and the market shift in favour of finance-qualified buyers.

Plenty to chew over and as per usual we're always keen on your feedback so please get in touch.

Give Aaron a google

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After a round up of the MPS and removal of first home buyer grants, as first covered in last week's reactionary pod, Nick and Kelvin discuss the potential re-emergence of movers (thanks to the monthly chart pack).

It's definitely too early to call it a trend just yet, but the settings are there for those that would have liked to have moved in the past few years to now get out and do it (affordability calculations pending!).

Kelvin also reports on consumers being a little 'less unhappy', but importantly feeling the easing of price pressures, while the latest RBNZ lending data is the topic of conversation for Kelvin's Property Market Pulse this week.

Looking ahead plenty of focus will be on the Government budget (2pm Thursday) though we don't think there'll be much new for the housing market that hasn't already been released (FHB grants, bright-line, interest deductibility). 

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It's been a busy day for property news, and in this shorter, reactionary episode, Nick and Kelvin first discuss the Reserve Bank's tough-talking monetary policy statement, then quickly cover off the announcement that first home grants have been canned.

In a nutshell, inflation is still a problem, and OCR cuts seem off the table until 2025 - meaning 'higher for longer' mortgage rates too.

Regarding first home grants, the decision will be disappointing for some would-be first home buyers (FHBs), but there are still lots of other factors in their favour, and the market still looks generally positive in the next little while for FHBs.

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Still pretty fresh from the incredible game, but disappointing result, from the Phoenix on the weekend, Nick gets it all off his chest early to then refocus ahead of a big week for the property market with the RBNZ Monetary Policy Committee meeting on Wednesday. 

It comes as the range of economic data recently released is a bit mixed. Migration is slowing, but still high, rental growth is also slowing but the economy is showing further signs of resilience. 

From a property market perspective - most recent data has been decidedly weak - particularly the HPI from REINZ, causing a rethink to Nick's 2024 expectation and consideration of just how underwhelming 2024 could actually be.

The full Pain & Gain report for Q1 is available on the CoreLogic website and the monthly chart pack will be up soon, as will the monthly video on the Youtube channel.

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This week we check back to see what first home buyers have been up to, including detailing our Q1 First Home Buyer Report and April's buyer classification data.

Kelvin also details the stats of how long borrowers are fixing for, showing the short term is still favoured, though borrowers should definitely do some forward projections of what they're expecting or hoping for when the rate comes up next.

Then, it's a look ahead to busy week ahead, which includes a special live podcast event, hosted by the Auckland Property Investors Association on Tuesday 14 May. Use the code NICKANDKEL to get your free tickets.

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After the short reactionary pod for both the RBNZ Financial Stability Review (FSR), which was pretty stock-standard, and the Q1 labour market stats - which were a little more interesting, this week's pod is shorter than it otherwise would have been. 

First topic of conversation is the latest CoreLogic House Price Index (HPI) data, which provided further more compelling evidence of a struggling housing market, particularly in Auckland (to Nick's surprise). 

With more time to digest the labour market stats, Nick then states the potential impact it might have on the OCR later in the year before Kelvin rounds up the underwhelming business confidence survey insights and building consents data. 

And what of Capital Economics' prediction for the Cash Rate in Aussie to see another lift this month? If true what does it say for the RBNZ's approach to "higher, sooner, faster and for longer", when it comes to the OCR here in NZ?

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Hot off the press, Nick and (a travelling) Kelvin catch up to quickly give their take on the just-released Financial Stability Report (FSR) from the Reserve Bank and official Labour Market stats for Q1 2024 from Stats NZ.

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One for the hopeful first home buyers

In this guest special, Nick speaks to Geri Fraser and Heiko Jonkers from Westpac. Geri is the Product lead for Housing and Heiko the Social and Affordable Housing Guru!

The main topics of interest discuss are the shared equity and leasehold options which are often misunderstood or simply not known about. Listen in to hear about what these options are and how Westpac have dedicated considerable commitment to ensure more New Zealanders can take that first step into the housing market. 

This includes understanding the international experiences and lessons learned to bring unique opportunities to life and how local councils, Government agencies and Iwi provide support for those prospective buyers to make their first purchase a reality.

As always the key is to speak to someone in the know and the Westpac first home loans page is a great start with plenty of passionate mobile mortgage managers keen to pass on their knowledge and help navigate what is so often a daunting process and huge life decision.

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There’s always plenty to talk about in the property market, but this week’s discussion basically sets the scene for a big week of data and announcements which could potentially mean a meaty pod next Monday!

The guys start by discussing the latest Buyer Classification data, which showed that first home buyers (FHBs) remained a key presence in March, and that also ties in to the latest mortgage lending figures from the Reserve Bank. Low deposit lending remains relatively restricted – certainly well under the maximum speed limits – but FHBs are still making good use of the system.

Attention then turns to the next few days …. CoreLogic House Price Index for April set to go public on Wednesday, just before the Financial Stability Report at 9am the same day, and the Q1 labour market figures at 10:45. Could the FSR finally detail the rules for debt to income ratio caps? On the labour market, the unemployment rate has probably risen further in Q1, but it might be about more labour supply, rather than mass job losses.

There's some great stuff in this week's episode, but also brace yourselves for a lot to talk about next week!

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Despite last week's well-received reactionary pod to the latest CPI inflation data, Nick and Kelvin can't help but dig a bit deeper into the data to get a steer on where things, in particular the OCR, are going. 

Other topics this week include the CoreLogic monthly chart pack, which focussed on borrowers preference to fix their mortgages short as well as the patchy nature of this recovery. 

That patchiness, and arguably weakness was backed up by the release of the REINZ index and sales tracking. 

On the flip side of all the negativity, Kelvin reports that early calcs from the NZAC indicate we may have re-exited the recession, but we all know high net migration (new data on that front too) has a large part to play in that too.

Lastly, there's a mention of the CCCFA announcement - not much detail to analyse and even less impact likely, due to high interest rates being the key constraint on funding lines right now. 

Check out the monthly video and Kelvin's appearance on Tova O'Brien's Stuff podcast.

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In this quick podcast Nick and Kelvin give their reaction to the just-released CPI inflation data.

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After quickly passing over the latest OCR decision from the RBNZ and one more construction release to add to last week's construction heavy chat, Nick and Kelvin delve into the current and future rental market.

There's rental price change to discuss, the reversal of some tenancy laws and the latest buyer classification data to assist.

Add in a bit on the economy and inflation ahead of the Q1 CPI data out this week and you've got a comprehensive review of the market. All in less than 40 mins. 

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The dominant theme this week is construction – from the Cordell Construction Cost Index showing subdued cost growth to start 2024, through to new dwelling consents in February (still falling), to Stats NZ’s experimental dataset looking at completion timeframes and the number of code compliance certificates issued (dwelling completions) – we have it all!

Not only that, but the Government also announced its intention to allow more imported building products to be used in NZ dwellings, with the aim of controlling cost pressures.

The guys also cover off last week’s CoreLogic House Price Index for March, and filled jobs data for February – both releases were a little mixed.

It’s another busy one this week too, with more mortgage lending data due, along with CoreLogic’s Buyer Classification figures and Stats NZ rent figures for March. The Reserve Bank will top it off with another cash rate decision on Wednesday, which is likely to be no change at 5.5%.

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Coming to you on Easter Monday, Nick and Kelvin catch up to discuss the week that was in the property market. Starting off with Kelvin's latest article, analysing the new build premium (using the CoreLogic Market Trends dataset).

In macro-economic news, Kelvin rounds up the latest lending data from the RBNZ, including the flow of loans and state of terms left on total stock. There's also consumer and business confidence survey data to digest, which was likely affected by confirmation of the recession, proving we all pay attention to the media headlines.

Plus, what was up with the RBNZ Governor, Adrian Orr's media appearance, seemingly paving the way for rate cuts?

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This week it's all about the economy (outside of a bit of Sail GP chat of course), after the release of the GDP data for Q4 last year confirmed we're officially back in a recession, the second time in a year for the classic double dip. What does it all mean though and what does the more timely NZAC tell us about how 2024 has started?

Kelvin also speaks about the CoreLogic release of the monthly chart pack, where the property investor situation was a core focus. 

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also paid a visit to the CoreLogic offices recently, as part of their usual fact finding mission to put together their latest Article IV report. Taxes once again were a topic of interest - with housing in the spotlight. 

The lingering question though is how and when could we really see a fundamental shift in the NZ tax system? Following the leader of the opposition, Chris Hipkins opening the door on capital gains/wealth/land taxes again over the weekend though, perhaps it's sooner than we'd originally thought?

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The main release last week was the CoreLogic Mapping the Market data - a suburb-level view of median values and change over time. Kelvin offers up the insights from the update and some of the conversations that it sparked with the media.

Then from the CoreLogic Buyer Classification series, Nick and Kelvin discuss the early signs of first home buyers facing a bit more competition from other buyers - particularly multiple property owners, but will it last?

Elsewhere, Kelvin wraps the macro economic data from Stats NZ, namely migration and rental figures, plus there's the REINZ house price index to analyse, including a couple of larger centres where values fell in February.

Plus, check out the CoreLogic NZ Youtube page for the latest monthly video.

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On this guest episode Nick speaks with Joanie Rankin, Mobile Mortgage Manager at Westpac. 

Joanie has been a Mobile Mortgage Manager (MMM) for 3 years but has been in the home lending industry for 6 years.  Joanie has been with Westpac for 9 years now in various customer facing/service roles and has an in-depth knowledge across several fields of banking.  Joanie is very passionate and finds it hugely rewarding to help people into their first homes and loves being a part of their home buying journey.

In the podcast Nick and Joanie really hone in on the first home buying experience - how triple M's help navigate the daunting and sometimes complex process and also some of the specific assistance that Westpac offer (including for Māori and Iwi).

What are some of the misconceptions people have when wanting to buy their own home and similarly what are some of the myths people hold on to when it comes to dealing direct with the bank? Those are just a couple of questions Joanie answers in a conversation that should be a 'must-listen' for all aspiring first home buyers.

For more information about Westpac first home buyer assistance, their MMMs, and how they can help, visit their website westpac.co.nz

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Confirmation over the weekend of the reinstatement of interest deductibility for property investors is the key feature for today's podcast. It was a busy Sunday and Monday morning for Kelvin especially, as journos scramble to cover the Government release. 

Details were as expected but the focus was on the potential implications? What could it mean for rental supply, rental prices and even new build commitments? Nick and Kelvin work through it all to get your week started.

Outside of that, there's the fourth annual Women & Property report to cover and the latest RBNZ stats on the terms selected by mortgage borrowers recently. 

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This week, to coincide with International Women's Day 2024, Nick speaks to an incredible, award winning leader within the banking and finance industry, Amanda Young. 

Amanda is an accomplished leader with an impressive 30+ year background in distribution across Personal and Business Banking, and Insurance. 

Amanda is known for her ability to implement solutions and remove complexity, while improving the performance of large teams. Amanda’s engaging and collaborative approach to problem solving has contributed to her success. Since stepping into the Head of Third Party Distribution role, Amanda advocates for the adviser industry within ASB and is motivated by continuous improvement to make a positive difference for our advisers and their customers.  

Listen in to hear about Amanda's incredible experience, leadership lessons (including staying in the Softball 'Strike zone') and her advice for future leaders. 

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This week the RBNZ's Monetary Policy Statement and OCR call are in the spotlight. Though most of the market expected the OCR to stay flat, ANZ's surprising recent forecast of two more increases caused a bit of doubt among commentators, and in the end the RBNZ probably softened their stance more than most expected. No one is getting carried away though, with the OCR to remain suitably contractionary for a while yet.

Meanwhile our HPI for Feb was released, with growth continuing to moderate and inconsistency across the country continuing to feature.

The release did however lead to some headline grabbing stuff from Newshub, after Kelvin politely disagreed with ex-PM John Key's assertion that house prices will double in the next 10-years. Needless to say Nick took the opportunity to stir the pot a bit!

Elsewhere Minister Bishop's plans to flood the market with developable land seem laudable but a bit optimistic - certainly conversation starting especially when combined with hopes to drag the house price to income ratio back towards 4.

Plenty to dig into for the start of the week - and there'll be more to come later in the week with International Women's Day on the horizon.

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Clearly the hottest topic this week is whether or not the Reserve Bank will raise the official cash rate at 2pm Wednesday (28th February). The guys give their takes on this issue, and ultimately, even if the OCR isn’t increased this week, a further rise down the track remains a possibility. Inflation isn’t dead yet!

Meanwhile, the discussion of recent data is focused on our latest NZ Housing Chart Pack, which highlighted a very slow start to the year for property sales activity, and the NZ Activity Index for January – which suggested that the economy is ‘ticking over’; good for jobs, but might underpin some inflation and interest rate pressure.

Also upcoming this week in terms of data: mortgage lending for January, filled jobs, ANZ business and consumer confidence, and new dwelling consents. Generally, the tone of these figures should be slightly positive, although the slide in dwelling consents is obviously a bit more concerning.

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