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The Reserve Bank has followed through on what ‘the markets’ and bank economists were expecting, with a 0.50% OCR cut today.

Inflation is considered to already be back in the target range (official data due Tuesday 16th) and the economy is weak, with the RBNZ noting we have ample spare capacity in NZ.

Check out today’s reactionary pod for Nick and Kelvin’s take on the decision.

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This week it's a special edition guest PLUS Monday data round up.

Along with Kelvin, Nick welcomes Richard Vaughan, Regional Director at Opteon Solutions to the pod. 

As Nick is fresh off a family holiday in Rotorua, he offloads to Kelvin and Richard to fill him in on a busy week for the property market, including: 

• The Corelogic Home Value Index results for August.
• Stats NZ Census data, including home ownership figures
• Government announcement to underwrite new developments
• RBNZ data on loan terms chose in August
• Economic data on business confidence and filled jobs. 

That's all before a detail preview of the Reserve Bank Monetary Policy Review, and OCR decision coming up on Wednesday (reactionary pod pending Kelvin's Jury Duty and Nick's Sydney trip).

Of course, there's still room for a bit of sports chat at the end, including Richard's pride in his Olympic gold medal winning niece Tara Vaughan (K4 500), and the NRL Grand Final. 

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In this quick podcast Nick and Kelvin give their reaction to the just-released MPS and with it, a drop in the OCR.

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With a much quieter data week Nick and Kelvin find conversation in a range of topics, including the third edition of the CoreLogic Women & Property report, Kelvin's anecdotes from a week on the road with the Trade Me Property team and the National Party's Build to Rent announcement.

Hot off the press is the CoreLogic Mapping the Market report though, the interactive suburb map detailing the median value and change for almost 1,000 suburbs across the country.

And keep a look out for the monthly video to be published later this week on the CoreLogic Youtube channel.

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In a special edition podcast Nick and Kelvin are joined by Eliza Owen, Head of Research for CoreLogic Australia. Eliza is the author of the just-released third edition of the CoreLogic Women & Property Report.

Eliza takes Nick through the report - why does it exist, how is it done, and what does it tell us? Kelvin helps along the way with some NZ specific insight but the findings are relatively consistent across both countries and Eliza delves into some of the details and also some thinking as to why they may occur.

Download your free version here from Tuesday 7 March 2023 and keep an eye out for plenty of coverage across all media channels.

You can follow Eliza on LinkedIn.

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With the CoreLogic House Price Index (HPI) for February out last week, a question came up about why it differs to some other measures out there. This leads to a broader discussion some of the different stats out there and why the interpretation of them is important. 

This relates to other releases from the last week too, including the filled jobs data, business and consumer confidence results and even the affordability report released the week prior.

Even the dwelling consents figures offer up a few words of warning, following some fresh listener insights. 

This week keep an eye out for the Women & Property report, and associated podcast, out Tuesday. Plus, Kelvin's on the road with Trade Me for their State of the Nation roadshow and be sure to dial into the International Women's Day webinar and the Government Market Update if you're a Government employee.

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This week it is all about the Reserve Bank's latest Monetary Policy Statement (MPS), and included OCR decision from last week. 

Perhaps the most important viewpoint was their take on what their role will or should be in response to supporting the recovery from the devastating impact of Cyclone Gabrielle as well as the severe flooding in Auckland a few weeks prior.

But as Nick and Kelvin discuss, the RBNZ quickly outlaid that both the timing and broader role of monetary policy dictated they 'look through' the impacts of the event for now, leaving that to fiscal and private support in the first instance.

Outside of the MPS, the latest CoreLogic Housing Affordability Report provides an excellent marker for future house price growth (or lack-of), while Kelvin remains very attentive to the latest NZ Activity Index (NZAC) for economic performance and the latest lending stats provide yet more evidence (not that it's needed) of how slow the market really is.

Plenty to come this week too, including the CoreLogic House Price Index results for February, going public on Wednesday.

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Firstly, our thoughts are with all those affected by Cyclone Gabrielle and the damage it has caused. It is heart-breaking to see and hear about all the people affected by this event, the extent of which is still to be known.

There is so much to ponder this week, as the destruction caused by Cyclone Gabrielle poses yet another consideration for Te Pūtea Matua (The Reserve Bank of NZ) as they weigh up all the factors in deciding on the next move for the OCR. This week they'll release their full Monetary Policy Statement, which has Nick and Kelvin debating all the options, including holding the OCR at 4.25%.

It was also a very heavy data release week with historically low sales volumes recorded by REINZ, falls in values continuing into 2023, rents experiencing a (potentially deceiving) bounce, net migration growing further and borrowers still constrained at a debt-to-income (DTI) level.

The Pain & Gain report is now live, and keep a look out for the Housing Affordability Report, due for release by Wednesday.

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**Please note the original upload of this week's podcast was an older file. This has been updated but you may need to delete the original download and re-download this episode to get the proper version**

 With a little less data released last week, the focus for the podcast this week centres around the investor market. There's January's Buyer Classification data to first run through, showing first home buyers holding relatively strong, with Kelvin then delving a bit deeper to reveal we may be waiting a while for any investor comeback.

With a lot of focus on the arrival of Cyclone Gabrielle, there's further discussion on the broader impacts to the property market as well as reference to some of CoreLogic's Climate Risk Solutions, available to support clients and property owners. Be sure to get in touch if you'd like to know more.

Lastly, a look ahead paves the way for a busy week, with rental data, REINZ' HPI, RBNZ lending figures and migration stats all being released this week. 

Plus, check back for the official release of the 2022 Q4 Pain & Gain report.

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Coming from a data-heavy week, including the all-important labour market statistics, most of the conversation this week leads to the likelihood of the RBNZ plumping for a 50 basis point lift to the OCR in two weeks' time (rather than the previously expected 75 basis point lift).

As well as the increase in the unemployment rate, the CoreLogic HPI illustrated there's further to go in the property downturn, while consumer confidence remains very low (despite a jump in the past month).

There's also the impacts of the Auckland floods to weigh up, though as is discussed it's not exactly straight forward as there will likely be added inflationary pressure, but it's also important to make funds available to those who need it (without too high an interest rate).

Dwelling consent data was also released and for the first time in a long time the annual figure dropped below 50,000, though it's no reason to panic with the pipeline full. Once again, considerations will need to be made for the remedial work required in Auckland, which may see new consents nationwide drop at a faster pace than otherwise expected.

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With Nick away on holiday in and around Queenstown this week, Kelvin takes the reins and is joined by a special guest, Tom Coad, who is CoreLogic’s Head of Banking and Finance Platforms for NZ and Australia.

We kick off the episode with a brief intro for Tom, and then Kelvin kicks into the data, which is in abundance this week – inflation may have peaked (but is still high), which will trigger another OCR increase on 22nd February. Whether it’s 0.75% or ‘only’ 0.5% will depend a lot on what happens with the official labour market figures this Wednesday.

There have been some other concerning indicators lately too – a subdued NZAC for December, weak business confidence, and signs in the latest Centrix data that more households are beginning to struggle with the cost of living and higher mortgage rates.

Looking ahead, it’s CoreLogic House Price Index data this week, alongside mortgage lending, foreign buyers, unemployment, dwelling consents, and consumer confidence.

After all that, the discussion turns to bigger picture banking themes, where Tom highlights a couple of key issues – digitisation/lending speed and the role of brokers, both in NZ and across the ditch. 

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What else could start off this week’s discussion than the change of Prime Minister? Ultimately though, from a property perspective, the guys reckon that it’s ‘business as usual’ for now – what really matters is what will happen to property policy after the Election.

In fact, the biggest item this week is actually Wednesday’s CPI for Q4. If inflation rose above 7.5% (the Reserve Bank’s expectation), we could see some reaction in higher mortgage rates. But a sub-7% result could tip the tone of discussion towards an OCR increase on 22nd February of less than 0.75%, taking some heat out of mortgage rates. A big day beckons.

Meanwhile, the REINZ data released last week remained very sluggish, with sales low and the house price index falling again. Queenstown’s 5.2% fall in values in December probably isn’t a genuine indication of broader trends in that market, but it also reinforces that nowhere is totally immune to the current housing pressures.

Rents held steady in December, confirming that tenants are currently in the ascendency, but the sharp and surprisingly strong turnaround lately in net migration may be starting to give some landlords hope for better property demand and cashflow in 2023.

Nick and Kelvin also cover off this week’s NZAC (weak again?), ANZ business confidence (also subdued?), as well as the so-called Healthy Homes alliance, and some recent negative equity stats for Wellington.

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Apologies for the short audio cut-out at about 16 minutes. Please plough through it.

After a busy start to 2023 last week in terms of writing and media appearances, we’re back for the second podcast of the year, and there’s plenty to cover – most notably the guys cover off Kelvin’s ‘opinion piece’ setting out why the loan to value ratio rules won’t be loosened this year. This wasn’t triggered by any ‘whispers’ that we’ve heard; just a good opportunity to put all our random musings into one place.

The latest Cordell Construction Cost Index is also discussed, showing that the costs to build a new house rose at a record pace in 2022, but also that some respite could be on the way this year.

Good news for first home buyers too – their % share of property purchases is hovering at record highs, with reduced competition from other buyers, and of course lower house prices, all working in their favour. To be fair, the number of deals has fallen. But a high market share is still a good result.

The labour market also remains healthy, with filled jobs rising again in November. And this week we’re watching out for December’s REINZ figures (Wednesday), December’s Stats NZ rent data (Thursday), and November’s migration result (Friday).

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With the Labour market stats covered off in the reactionary pod last week, Nick and Kelvin's minds turn quickly to the big release from the RBNZ this week, their Monetary Policy Statement.  

There's has been plenty of speculation, criticism and advice about what to do but ultimately it's hard not to see the Bank being consistent with their plan to err on the side of caution and delay any loosening until inflation is truly under control, with concrete data to support it. 

In other news, the Pain & Gain report for Q2 reflected the market in retreat and first home buyers remain active in comparison to other buyers. 

Lastly, how lucky were the ABs and NZ Rugby that Olympic gold-medal fever took over to detract from a pretty woeful performance in front of a disappointing crowd in Wellington? Not that it bothered Nick and his son, in attendance, too much. 

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The CoreLogic House Price Index (HPI) for December provides the perfect platform to close out 2022 as Nick and Kelvin discuss why the moderation in value falls is likely a false dawn. 

Kelvin also wraps up a few other data releases you may have missed over the holidays weeks, most notably and concerning, the weak confidence results.

Plus beware of some of the headlines you may have read, there's a warning for reading too much into asking price or sales price measures and are Auckland buyers really that active outside of the Super City?

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For the final episode of the year, where else could we start than with the just-completed FIFA World Cup Final. An early start for Nick and some disappointment for the French friends he was watching it with! But what a game it was.

The guys then review recent data and preview what’s coming up for the final week of the year, including the ANZ business and consumer confidence surveys. The activity measures in these surveys could be pretty weak, but is there a chance that inflation expectations might soon be moderating?

The discussion then switches to an overall review of 2022 and a look ahead to 2023. The past 12 months have certainly been a timely reminder that house prices can go down (sharply) as well as up, and that mortgage rates play a key role. The next year will probably contain more housing weakness, but some positivity may start to emerge later in 2023.

Anybody wanting a more in-depth/alternative discussion of the 12 months ahead should check out Nick’s regular monthly video and the recording of a webinar the guys recently delivered to a Government audience.

All the best for 2023 to all of our listeners.

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With no official macro economic data releases in the last week Nick and Kelvin take a look around for any other info and engagements worth reviewing. Migration data was hot off the press but otherwise there’s media coverage regarding mortgagee sales, reduced sales turnover at the suburb level and  Kelvins deeper look at recent investor activity.  

Centrix also released their latest credit indicator report, illustrating a lift in loan arrears, while BusinessDesk analysed records around liquidations which show up  the constructor sector's lingering vulnerability.  

Keep a look out for a number of different releases from CoreLogic this week, including the Best of the Best report, the final monthly video of the year and the last Market Update webinar for Government employees (being tag teamed by both Nick and Kelvin).

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The discussion kicks off this week on the topic of house prices, with the CoreLogic Index last week showing further falls. Sure, the drop was smaller than in recent months. But be careful of reaching the conclusion that the downturn might also be over. It probably isn’t, and the ultimate peak for mortgage rates could hold the key as to when property values find a floor.

Indeed, the macro news last week also had a negative tone, such as filled jobs, dwelling consents, and business confidence. Weak hiring intentions could be a property market concern for next year, given the importance of the labour market to borrowers’ ability to keep servicing their debt.  

In Kelvin's weekly article he delves into the situation with investors and those of different portfolio sizes.

The guys also discuss some listener feedback, especially the idea that casually switching to interest-only if a borrower gets into trouble isn’t as easy as it might seem.

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After the hotly anticipated Monetary Policy Statement was released last week Nick and Kelvin have a lot to discuss. From the OCR decision itself, to all the macro-economic forecasts and the language used in subsequent commentary - all with an eye to how the market is shaping up for 2023.

We also got October lending figures last week, Centrix's credit review, consumer confidence results and Xero's Small Business Index to digest.

Plus, the Government were busy too. Firstly they extended the dates for Healthy Homes Standards compliance, they also announced a 'Critical Materials Taskforce' to protect the construct industry and also launched their Change in Housing Affordability Indicators (CHAI) reporting/dashboard.

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While Nick and Kelvin keenly await the next RBNZ Monetary Policy Review, being released on Wednesday, they first take the time to look back a week full of releases.

CoreLogic's Pain & Gain report for Q3, showing the proportion of owners selling at a loss has increased, but is still no where near the levels of previous downturn. 

REINZ latest release included what is likely a false dawn, as their HPI showed a minor increase in October, but sales volumes remain very weak.

The CoreLogic Buyer Classifcation data for October illustrated the continued struggles of mortgaged multiple property owners amidst first home buyers still out and about, with the RBNZ DTI data showing one reason why.

And Kelvin's round up of macro-economic data showed some encouraging signs in both the net migration figures and latest NZ Activity Index (measure of economic activity). Speaking of which, the Massey 'liveGDP' tracker is one to keep an eye on.

Plus, there's also a bit of chat about the recently announced changes to the RMA - likely to have an impact on the property market, but only in the long term.

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A number of releases/announcements from the RBNZ once again dominate the discussion. We've got the reappointment of Governor Orr to discuss, along with their first 5-year review of monetary policy, the proposed framework for the introduction of Dti limits (not until 2024) and a paper analysing the effects of the FLP on funding costs and mortgage rates. 

Outside of RBNZ chat, Kelvin details the key insights from the release of our 6-monthly First Home Buyer Report, particularly that first home buyers are navigating the current market better than anyone else.

Stats NZ also released their Rental Index for October and Auckland City Council's code of compliance certificates illustrates the building slowdown which hasn't been as evident from consenting figures. Plus, the guys chat about Williams Corporations announcement that they've offered voluntary redundancies to a number of their staff across the globe.

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After a largely successful weekend of sports results, the dominant property issue for today’s episode is the Reserve Bank’s latest Financial Stability Report (FSR) – the chat may have a negative tone, but that’s the point. The FSR is all about looking at risk, and ‘plausible but severe’ scenarios which we might need to prepare for.

 Nick and Kelvin cover off various aspects of the FSR, including the overall conclusion that our financial system is pretty resilient, and that most households should ‘get by’, provided that unemployment stays relatively low. More detailed points include some climate change modelling, negative equity, non-bank lending, and the prospects for LVRs vs DTIs.

 Other data from last week included the continuation of low unemployment in Q3, and the resilience of new dwelling consents. Coming up, watch out for the CoreLogic First Home Buyer Report, Buyer Classification data, and the latest Stats NZ rental figures 

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A number of data releases from a range of locations, but it still all boils down to businesses - are they investing and hiring - and  consumers - are they still working, borrowing and spending?

The answers are slightly mixed, with businesses not confident but still doing fine and consumers much the same, though the latest RBNZ lending data further reiterates they're not borrowing near as much as they were or could be.

A number of links mentioned this week:
BusinessDesk coverage of ANZ Business Outlook survey
Xero data on small business health
BusinessDesk detail of ANZ customer reporting
CoreLogic under insurance survey
Affordability compared to 1990 article
Auckland being a million dollar city article 

And lastly, thanks to Amelia for getting in touch.

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There are no surprises what forms the bulk of this week's podcast - inflation! With the latest CPI data out last week, and it coming as a shock to many, forecasts for the OCR, mortgage interest rates and house prices have been seriously revised. To kick things off Kelvin provides a 'review of the reviews', summarising the response to the inflation data and potential flow through to the housing market.

Amongst a wide-ranging, exploratory discussion Nick also references Cameron Bagrie's 'challenge to the status quo' article on BusinessDesk, imploring action to address the inflation issues from the bottom up and well as the top down, and to find ways to increase the productivity of our economy. 

In other releases the comprehensive quarterly property market and economic report for Q3 was published last week with the key insulating factor of a strong labour market setting this downturn apart from the GFC, leading the commentary.

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This week, Nick chats to Michelle Isemonger, Adviser for Loan Market East, in Auckland.

Michelle brings a youthful exuberance to being an advisor while drawing extensively from the successful experience around her.

Nick and Michelle cover a lot in this chat, from first home buyer priorities to mover preferences, all the way to what's going on with interest rates and the basis for deciding how long to fix your mortgage.

Plenty of regulatory chat in there too, from the shortening of Brightline test to all the CCCFA changes over the years, this discussion will give all listeners plenty of ammo when it comes to understanding and discussing the current housing market.

Michelle can be contacted on michelle.isemonger@loanmarket.co.nz or google for her and Team Patton. 

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After a quick chat about the latest CoreLogic CCCI report on construction costs the focus quickly turns to the state of the market, following the latest REINZ monthly report detailing recent sales volumes and house value movements.

Neither measures provide much positivity for the future, as sales remain slow and values continue to fall, however in slightly better news the recent net migration figures provide a few shards of light at the end of the tunnel. 

The rental index data from Stats NZ meanwhile looks a little off, but either way, reduced rental growth is adding the current challenges for property investors.

The regular quarterly report will be available to download later this week, but prior to that, all eyes will be on the CPI release from Stats NZ - set for Tuesday 10:45am.

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The RBNZ increased the OCR by the expected 50 basis points last week but along with it opined the option of going even harder with a 75 basis point lift. What makes the call even more intriguing was that the Reserve Bank over the ditch (RBA) dialled back their tightening with only a 25 basis point increase. 

Nick and Kelvin ponder the potential reasons for the different approaches, including consideration of the RBNZ making a mistake, though it seems it's a mistake they're willing to make considering the fallout may not be too dramatic (and potentially a better outcome than inflation continuing to run rampant).

Meanwhile our House Price Index for September showed values continue to fall, the CoreLogic Buyer Classification series shows first home buyers remain active but investors not-so and a closer look at values by property type, courtesy of Stuff.co.nz.

There's also a quick local election round up, with a view to what it could mean for the General Election next year and a special thanks to Pankaj for the feedback.

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Making up for a few quieter weeks of data releases, this week the show is jam packed of official data releases as well as a few other pieces of news which piqued Nick and Kelvin's interest.

Reserve Bank lending data for August leads the discussion, followed by filled jobs, confidence data and dwelling consent figures.

A look ahead to this week sees the CoreLogic HPI out on Wednesday morning, the OCR review happening that afternoon and the CoreLogic Buyer Classification series for September will be available on Friday, setting up an interesting show for next week.

Elsewhere, there's been coverage of ghost houses on Stuff, whether it's better to rent or buy on The Spinoff and Nick ponders the announcement by The Opportunities Party (TOP) about their proposed tax changes, including a 0.75% land value tax.

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After yet another quiet week for data releases Nick and Kelvin take the opportunity to better discuss the report released last month by the Housing Technical Working Group (MHUD, Treasury, RBNZ) assessing the NZ housing system. 

Two recent podcasts at 'On the Tiles' and 'When the Facts Change' recently interviewed lead author Dominic Stephens (Chief Economist at Treasury) which lead to a number of great talking points to dissect. 

The three key drivers of house price growth are pretty clear - land availability, interest rates and a favourable tax system, but how are those things changing and is the change going to be enough to disturb the long-run trend of affordability continuing to worsen?

A quick look ahead for the week rounds out the show this week, with a number of key data releases to look out for, from RBNZ, Stats NZ and ANZ.

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Making up for a quieter week prior, last week had a few of the more higher profile data releases. First up the GDP figures for Q2 were released by Stats NZ, with the main headlining being that we avoided a recession, but as Kelvin regularly points out does it really matter if confidence and sentiment is so low it felt like a recession anyway? And what now for inflation and the OCR?

REINZ also released their sales volumes and index for August, with continued weakness the main theme. Broad weakness also typified the latest release of the CoreLogic Mapping the Market data analysing the median value and 3 month change by suburb across the country.

Elsewhere we also got the latest migration figures from Stats NZ, as well as their rental index release showing further reduced demand and pressure on rental prices.

Next week's podcast will be recorded and released on Tuesday 27 September due to the public on holiday on Monday 26 September.

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It was a quieter week of data releases last week with just the CoreLogic Buyer Classification data for August and Kelvin's article on the cost to trade up to discuss. 

Stats NZ's release of migration data just prior to recording is also mentioned, however otherwise it's a look ahead to a busier week of data coming out, including REINZ HPI and sales volumes, the Stats NZ rental index and more importantly the official release of the Q2 GDP figures and the more timely NZAC for August. 

The big question of course being did we dip into a technical recession or not, though as Kelvin regularly points out, does it matter, if it felt like a recession anyway?

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The Corelogic House Price Index showed the downward trend in property values gather steam in August but after providing a bit more detail of the results, Nick also mentions the early signs of some light at the end of the tunnel.

The foundation of the NZ labour market appears to remain as solid as ever too, with Kelvin reporting filled jobs increased again in July and business confidence looks to be rising from the doldrums too.

Building consents have (finally) shown signs of tailing off, and while it's still minor, Kelvin thinks it's time to call the turning point, though with the pipeline full and the recent government announcement to support commitments in the sector, a GFC-type bust phase isn't expected.

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In another special addition podcast, Nick is joined by Mark Harris, Managing Director of Sotheby's International Realty NZ, to discuss all things Queenstown. 

As can often be the case, the Queenstown property market is currently marching to it's own beat and with the borders now open, optimism for the area is high.

Mark started Sotheby's in NZ almost 20 years ago and has extensive experience in the mid-high range property market, both in Queenstown and around the country.

Listen in to hear about Mark's take on the current market, thoughts on the foreign buyer ban, connection to international markets and expectations for the future.

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This week Kelvin opens discussion with a summary of his trip to Rotorua to be on a panel at the Master Builders conference. Challenging but not dire would probably sum up the vibe and expectations of where things are headed.

At the same conference, Housing Minister Megan Woods announced the "Build Ready Development Pathway" designed to support the industry, in particular for stalled construction. This should provide confidence and certainty to the sector, which could otherwise be lacking.

Elsewhere we released some timely new climate risk analysis (in conjunction with global reinsurer Munich RE), illustrating the current and growing cost of river floods in NZ - something which needs to be acted upon sooner rather than later.

In what was a busy media week, Kelvin fronted the latest update to the 6-monthly housing affordability report, showing some measures have improved but others haven't.

All that, plus RBNZ mortgage data, consumer confidence survey results and underwhelming retail spend figures.

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No surprises for guessing what the topic of interest is this week - the RBNZ's August Monetary Policy Statement (MPS). Yes, the Official Cash Rate (OCR) increased by another 0.5% to now be 3%, but of more interest to our data loving friends are the forecasts within and what's actually said in the statement. 

Nick and Kelvin provide their review of the statement and expectations for the short-term future of the market. The latest CoreLogic Pain & Gain report for Q2 2022 and recent stories about negative equity also feed into this discussion.

Then there's the BRANZ/MBIE report on the long term outlook for construction, the July NZ Activity Index (NZAC) and a new report from the Housing Technical Working Group acknowledging the big influences of property prices over the long term history to sink your teeth into.

This week look out for a release on the potential ongoing impact of regular floods in NZ and the Q2 Housing Affordability Report.

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In this quick podcast Nick and Kelvin give their reaction to the just-released Labour Market stats for Q2.

Nick reckons they're pretty 'meh' and Kelvin's take is that it probably reduces the chance of a cut to the OCR, as some bank economists have called for, next week. 

Recent volatility across global financial markets, particularly Japan, has thrown a bit of a spanner in the works, but ultimately we expect the RBNZ to hold the line in the MPS next Wednesday. Though they are likely to use the statement to reset expectations for inflation and monetary policy for the rest of the year.

Things will then turn pretty quickly, to how many and how fast cuts are going to come, once the RBNZ primes the market for the first one.

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This week, Nick and Kelvin lead the podcast with a discussion about whether first home buyers should wait to buy in a falling market. There are a number of factors to consider and not all of them financial - Kelvin teased all of the data out in his written article last week.

Sticking to the theme of first home buyers, there's also the CoreLogic Buyer Classification data for July to review as well as REINZ' regular release, Stats NZ's rental index and migration data too.

Of course, it wouldn't really be a week in the property market without something to do with the lending environment so a review of the latest RBNZ debt-to-income (DTI) reporting flows into a preview of their Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) to be released on Wednesday and includes their review of the Official Cash Rate (OCR).

And keep an eye out for a special edition podcast coming soon, looking at both the NZ and AU property markets - their similarities and differences.

The Pain & Gain report for Q2 will also be available for download from first thing Tuesday morning.

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In another special edition guest podcast, Nick and Kelvin welcome their Australian counterparts to have a discussion around some of the similarities and differences between the NZ and AU property markets.

Tim Lawless, CoreLogic International Research Director, and Eliza Owen, Head of AU Research are hugely experienced and well respected market commentators on the Australian market and they offer great perspective at a time uncertainty in both countries remains high. 

Key topics of interest covered are the OCR, include recent history and speed of change/expectations for change, affordability - especially in the main/capital centres and the differing regulatory environment. 

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The CoreLogic House Price Index (HPI) for July leads the discussion today and flows through to the consideration of negative equity for some recent buyers, particularly in the Wellington region.

The availability and cost of lending remains central factors to watch, so recent announcements of further changes to CCCFA, stronger mortgage rate competition and the opportunity of more high-LVR loans provide intrigue on where the market is heading.

A surprising (minor) lift in the unemployment rate caused a bit of overreaction in the market but shouldn't be fully dismissed and are we truly, finally seeing signs of a reduction in consents for new builds?

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First up this week is a correction from last week's show, where reference to the 'home ownership' portion of the Stats NZ CPI measure was incorrectly defined as including rents, rates and other costs. There's been confusion in the naming conventions and definitions but after contact from a keen listener, Kelvin provides an overview of the whole situation.

Elsewhere in the property data world, the guys talk RBNZ lending data and the prospect of lending regulations changing later this year, as well as economic data releases for filled jobs and both business and consumer confidence.

Of course, the comprehensive Quarterly Property Market and Economic Report is now live, the stuff article regarding climate change and it's (lack of) impact to property prices is here, and the article regarding the potential of negative equity is here.

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Last week, A stronger than expected CPI figure led to some economists changing their forecasts for the OCR, however Kelvin ponders whether it was necessary. He also delves into some of the detail behind the strong inflation result and of course considers whats next. Has inflation peaked?

A similar question is asked regarding constructions costs, off the back of the latest CoreLogic Cordell Construction Costs Index (CCCI). The state of the construction industry remains a hot topic, which last week included an increase in the KiwiBuild price to caps, intended to deliver more houses in the programme.

And in Kelvin's broader market overview he reviews the latest NZAC result for June and looks ahead to filled jobs data, confidence survey results and June lending figures.

On Wednesday look out for an update to the comprehensive Quarterly Property Market and Economic Report.

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The RBNZ's decision to lift the OCR by another 0.5%, to 2.5%, was entirely expected, however there's still a lot to discuss in terms of the implications and future of mortgage interest rates.

Meanwhile the REINZ data release for June prompted an in depth look into sales volumes, which really have fallen away dramatically. Plus, anyone looking for signs of the downturn moderating would have been bitterly disappointed to see the REINZ HPI showing no signs of it.

From an economic perspective, Kelvin wraps up the latest Stats NZ releases, covering both their rental index and net migration figures.

Keep an eye on the CoreLogic NZ Youtube channel for this months (numbers heavy) video, as well as the latest release of the Cordell Construction Costs Index (CCC!).

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Kelvin is out of isolation and there is plenty of data, particularly from CoreLogic, to chew over. Firstly the House Price Index data for June was released last week, further illustrating the embedded downturn we're in. Nick's release pondered where to from here, noting interest rates, including the official cash rate (OCR) which is being reviewed by the RBNZ this week, as a key determining factor.

The other data update was the CoreLogic Buyer Classification series for June, showing further (expected) falls in activity, but relative strength from both first home buyers and multiple property owners. 

For the rest of the week Kelvin has his eyes on Stats NZ for both migration data and their rental index - both are likely to paint a tougher picture for landlords.

The full recording of the Climate Finance Panel from last week is available now, and for a great written overview Newsroom were in attendance too. 

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Plenty of data and other releases to cover this week, starting with RBNZ lending data for May. Most interestingly there was a lift in low deposit lending, but Kelvin also picks up on the reduction of interest-only lending as worthy of attention. Full article available too.

The RBNZ's Chief Economist Paul Conway also delivered a speech last week, which Nick and Kelvin briefly discuss, however it has served as more of a reaffirmation of the broader state of the market than anything particularly new.

A Covid-battling Kelvin then runs through all the economic data releases from the week - Filled jobs (look good), building consents (holding up, but we're weary of them) and business and consumer confidence (pretty bad). 

Nick then references the latest from Trade Me's release of their rental data showing the first signs of potential weakness in that market - not good news for landlords.

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Infometrics' release of their new report "Housing update: A new lens on affordability" dominates the discussion this week, as it brings to the fore the consideration of assessing all payments over the lifetime of a mortgage rather than simply the price paid when bought. 

The key headline was that it's now the worst time to be a first home buyer in NZ since 1957, and based on the quality of the report it's hard to argue the point. Nick and Kelvin do however, dig into a little bit of the detail of why that is the case and whether it'll once and for all put the generational argument of who had it tougher, to bed!

Kelvin also provides an overview of the latest release of the Mapping the Market interactive suburb report and covers off the latest NZAC data (and why doesn't it get the coverage it deserves!?).

Lastly this week, here are the links as mentioned:

• BusinessDesk article on the impact of the City Rail Link stations on property values.
• Real Estate Breakfast
  • Wellington 
  • Auckland 
• Kelvin's oneroof article

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A number of relevant economic and property market releases lead to a wide-ranging discussion on the state of the NZ economy and the future of the property market (without interest rates dominating!).

GDP figures for Q1 showed a contracting economy, to most people's surprise, while the REINZ sales volumes and HPI reaffirmed the market weakness - with the nationwide index now 6% below the peak in November 2021.

Meanwhile the rental index figure illustrates slowing growth for rents but still well above the long term average, but can it continue? Along with considering that question Kelvin and Nick also analyse the latest migration stats - what they're showing, but does it matter?

Kelvin's article analysing the May Buyer Classification data is up on the website, while the monthly video is also live.

Don't forget to register for the Climate Change Panel, hosted by Bernard Hickey (and listen to last week's podcast) and if you work for the Government, register for this week's online market update presentation too.

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In exciting news for the CoreLogic Research team, and fellow housing data nerds, we've now got a brand new index to measuring housing value change over time!

The launch of the CoreLogic hedonic Home Value Index firstly reported a further fall in property values in July, the fifth month in a row for the 'renewed downturn'. This brought with it plenty of discussion as to how to classify the weakness which then flowed on to some of the detail into the index itself - including what even is a hedonic regression index? Ultimately it's a better way to measure value over time. Nick and Kelvin cover off some of the detail, but there's plenty of technical documentation on the CoreLogic website, along with the weekly back series and plenty of FAQ to satisfy the data scientist and modelling analysts out there.

In other property and macroeconomic news the latest filled jobs data offers a good preview of the official labour market stats out this week and Nick add a bit of 'actual new build' data to the reporting of building consents. 

Plus, business confidence data, RBNZ lending figures and a token nod to the ever-entertaining Olympics following a weekend where the guys' kids consider if they could be Olympic athletes in the trampoline or 100m sprint!

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In this special edition guest podcast, Nick interviews Ivan Diaz-Rainey, from the Univerity of Otago.

Ivan also holds a number of roles but the two of most interest for today are Director of the Climate & Energy Finance Group and Project Lead for the STRAND Marsden Fund Project. 

The discussion essentially forms a preview of the upcoming online panel event, which Ivan is a member of "Addressing climate change, financial stability & property", to be hosted by Bernard Hickey on the 7th of July at 12:30pm. The event is open to anyone with an interest - register here.

Nick and Ivan discuss a number of things to do with the climate and it's increasing inluence on our financial system all around the world. What is Climate Finance? How does NZ compare to the rest of the world when it comes to regulation and policy development? And how are both mitigating and adapting to the real impacts of climate change? And what is transition risk? 

All this is covered in the podcast as well as a bit of detail on the STRAND Marsden Project (proudly supported by CoreLogic) which as well as evaluating different models for understanding the potential impacts of flooding, looked into the South Dunedin floods of 2015 and the influence they had on property prices both short and long term.

Overall, NZ is making good progress in the Climate Finance space but there's also plenty left to do. Listen in to the podcast to hear more and make sure you register for the panel event on 7 July.

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In amongst some wild weather over the weekend, credit conditions and interest rates are back as a key discussion point again this week, given the soon-to-begin relaxation of the CCCFA rules, but on the other hand the start of Quantitative Tightening from the Reserve Bank. Even though the RBNZ envisages QT being a smooth/managed process, Nick and Kelvin discuss how there’s surely some kind of risk that it adds to upwards pressure on mortgage rates.

Buyer Classification for May is also covered off, and the theme of ‘debt vs equity’ is still evident, with cash multiple property owners having a higher market share in recent months – albeit due to their number of purchases falling less than other groups, rather than an outright increase in activity.

As per usual the guys look ahead to upcoming data this week – including the Q1 GDP data – but also take on a broader discussion of the investment landscape at present (Kelvin's write up). With capital gains fading, yields low, and mortgage rates higher, it’s possible that would-be new investors are looking very hard at their sums. Of course, for existing investors with much higher effective yields, the game is a bit different – and some (all?) will want to avoid Brightline too!

Kelvin's 5 things to know article is live, as is his analysis of the history of the top end of the market. 

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In what was a relatively quieter week for property market data, Nick and Kelvin spend a bit of time discussing the latest CoreLogic House Price Index (HPI) data and some of the resulting media coverage.

It also gave Kelvin an opportunity to check out the new experimental series from Stats NZ regarding Code of Compliance Certificates (CCC) being issued around the country. This, on top of the latest building consent figures and ANZ consumer confidence release leads the way to further consideration of the vulnerable development and construction industry - we think further tough times lay ahead.

In this week's oneroof article Kelvin floated the idea of the market following the shape of a bathtub - so that's a new one for your property market lexicon.

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