The Long Term Investor – Détails, épisodes et analyse

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Ever wondered where your retirement plan's "probability of success" really comes from? In this episode, Peter pulls back the curtain on the assumptions inside Monte Carlo analysis—and explains why Plancorp anchors its projections to long-term base rates instead of short-term forecasts.

Listen now and learn:

► The three numbers that quietly drive most Monte Carlo projections

► The four common ways advisors choose capital market assumptions—and why they differ

► Why "more sophisticated" assumptions can sometimes create more error, not less

► How to think about your plan's probability of success without getting lost in the math

Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions.

Disclosure: This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment.

The commentary in this "post" (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Plancorp LLC employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Plancorp LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Plancorp LLC or performance returns of any Plancorp LLC client.

References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others.

Please see disclosures here.

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Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, joins me for a wide-ranging conversation about what actually matters for long-term investors heading into 2026. We get past the headline forecasts and into how a seasoned strategist interprets markets in real time—without falling into the traps that trip up most investors.

Listen now and learn:

► Why "forecasts" can be useful even when you're not making price targets—and how to use them the right way

► A clearer way to think about what really drove market returns in 2025 (and what many investors missed)

► What to pay attention to with the Fed in 2026, and what's mostly just noise

► A grounded framework for thinking about the U.S. dollar, national debt, and the long-term investor's edge

Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions.

(03:00)  Why Schwab Won't Do Year-End Targets 

(08:23) How Liz Ann Builds an Outlook: cycles, quadrants, and "better or worse" vs. "good or bad"
(13:33) 2025's Biggest Investor Lesson
(16:48) The Magnificent Seven Misconception: contribution ≠ performance
(21:05) The 2026 Outlook
(26:09) The Federal Reserve, Rate Cuts, and a New Fed Chair: why the "C" in FOMC matters
(31:39) The US Dollar and Reserve Currency Fears: "there's no replacement for it"
(35:19) US National Debt: not a default story, but a long-term "wet blanket on growth" 

(43:02) Long-Term Investing vs. Gambling: owning vs. hoping, and why "get in/get out" isn't a strategy

(47:22) How Liz Ann Sonders Invests Her Own Money
(50:16) What's Different Now: post-COVID sentiment, the retail trader, and why psychology got harder
(52:55) Where to Find Liz Ann's Research 

Disclosure: This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment.

The commentary in this "post" (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Plancorp LLC employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Plancorp LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Plancorp LLC or performance returns of any Plancorp LLC client.

References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others.

Please see disclosures here.

Your finances have layers—investments, taxes, planning for the future. If you want a second set of eyes, Peter opened up a few spots for a quick, no-obligation call. Grab yours now.

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Equity compensation can turbocharge wealth—and taxes. Brooklyn Fi managing partner John Owens joins Peter to share a clear year-end playbook for RSUs, ISOs/NQSOs, and ESPPs, including how to avoid AMT surprises, right-size withholding, and unwind concentrated stock positions. 

Listen now and learn:

► A simple order of operations for year-end equity comp decisions

► RSU withholding pitfalls (and how to fix them before April) 

► ISO/AMT basics and why late-year exercises can backfire

► How to build a rules-based plan, use 10b5-1 mechanics, and when donor-advised funds make sense

Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions.

(00:00) Introduction
(03:15) A hard-won lesson: when AMT grows larger than your stock (and what to do next)
(04:21) Don't start equity planning on December 15 (really)
(05:19) First move: build an inventory and triage the quick wins
(08:18) AMT 101 for ISO holders: the "parallel" tax you don't want to pay
(10:47) RSUs: why 22% withholding often sets up an April tax bill
(12:24) ESPPs: capture the discount, control concentration
(14:55) Designing a rules-based sell plan to unwind concentration risk
(18:11) The base rates on single stocks: why a diversification plan matters more than a "feel"
(20:42) 10b5-1 plans: automate good behavior and expand your ability to sell
(23:31) Charitable giving with concentrated stock: donor-advised funds and timing across 2025/2026
(26:11) Family gifting: UTMAs, kiddie tax, step-up in basis, and multi-generational choice
(27:28) The year-end document checklist most people miss
(29:17) When to hire help (and when not to)
(31:19) Biggest year-end mistakes to avoid

Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠)

Disclosure: This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment.

The commentary in this "post" (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Plancorp LLC employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Plancorp LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Plancorp LLC or performance returns of any Plancorp LLC client.

References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others.

Please see disclosures here.

You need money for everything, but money isn't everything. That's why there are a number of non-
financial reasons you ought to embrace financial planning.

Listen now and learn:

• How blueprinting your life goes beyond a budget
  
  
• How financial planning can strengthen your bond with loved ones
  
  
• How a financial plan turns time from a fleeting resource into a strategic asset

Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions.

The conversation continues with Derek Jess, Senior Wealth Manager and Shareholder at Plancorp, who returns to delve deeper into executive compensation planning strategies.

Listen now and learn:

• Key strategies for deferred compensation plans
• Advanced strategies for exercising stock options
• The important nuances of establishing a 10b5-1 plan

Be sure to also check out last week's episode with Derek about Equity Compensation Strategies: Everything You Need to Know.

[02:00] Advanced Deferred Compensation Planning Strategies

[11:35] Advanced Strategies for Exercising Stock Options

[16:20] Understanding AMT Planning for Incentive Stock Options 

[21:25] The Importance of Setting a 10b5-1 Plan

Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions.

Derek Jess, Senior Wealth Manager and Shareholder at Plancorp, shares his vast knowledge of integrating equity and executive compensation into comprehensive financial planning strategies.  

Listen now and learn:

• The essential considerations and tax implications for incorporating equity compensation into your financial plan

• Unique risks faced by employees with large company stock positions

• A systematic approach to managing company stock

Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions.

[2:17] Understanding Deferred Compensation

[3:43] Equity Compensation and Vesting Schedules

[6:01] Restricted Stock vs. Stock Options

[9:21] Tax Implications of Stock Options

[14:05] Employee Stock Purchase Plans

[17:36] Concentrated Stock Positions and Risks

[21:05] Integrating Company Stock in Financial Planning

[33:06] A Systematic Approach to Managing Company Stock

Peter provides a data-driven analysis of what investing in stocks at an all-time high means for investors today. 

Listen now and learn:

• The significance of all-time highs in the stock market
• How current dynamics fit into the natural growth cycle of the market
• Insights into balancing risk and opportunities that lead to confident investment decisions

Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions.

Callie Cox, an acclaimed investment analyst, shares her expertise on navigating the complexities of the financial world in 2024. Tune in for an enlightening discussion that blends technical analysis with practical advice for both seasoned and aspiring investors.

Listen and learn:

• What sparked the year-end rally and what to expect in 2024

• Key insights from eToro's Retail Investor Survey

• What to expect from Big Tech in 2024

Detailed show notes and resources can be accessed at www.thelongterminvestor.com.

[1:30] Reflecting on the Fourth Quarter 2023 Rally 

[9:30] Market Leadership and Trends 

[15:10] The Surge in Money Market Fund Flows 

[19:20] The Case For Optimism in 2024 

[22:50] Insights from eToro's Retail Investor Survey

[29:15] Potential Impact of a Bitcoin ETF

This episode explores the groundbreaking approval of spot price bitcoin ETFs by the SEC. Understand the impact of this development on investors

Listen now and learn:

• How spot price bitcoin ETFs differ from previous bitcoin ETF products
• The nuances of popular bitcoin investment theses
• Important questions to ask prior to investing in bitcoin

Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions.

This episode features a deep conversation with renowned author and coach Brad Stulberg, exploring the intricate dynamics of mastering change in both personal and professional spheres. 

Drawing from Stulberg's latest book, "Masters of Change: How to Excel When Everything is Changing – Including You," they delve into the science behind change and how individuals can navigate change effectively. 

Listen now and learn:

• How embracing change paves the path to true stability
• Way to achieve rugged flexibility
• Why core values play an essential role as anchors amidst change

Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions.

[2:14] The Science of Change

[7:20] Rugged Flexibility and The Importance of Core Values

[16:00] How a Diversified Identity Reduces Fear and Increases Resilience 

[22:15] Tragic Optimism

[28:20] Reacting vs Responding to Change