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The Jim Paulsen Show

Excess Returns

Business & Entrepreneuriat

Fréquence : 1 épisode/32j. Total Éps: 10

From one of Wall Street’s most seasoned and respected voices comes a fresh perspective on markets, the economy, and the forces shaping our financial future. In The Jim Paulsen Show, veteran strategist Jim Paulsen joins the Excess Returns network to share his independent, thought-provoking take on everything from interest rates and inflation to market sentiment and long-term investment trends. Whether you’re a professional investor or simply fascinated by macro strategy, this show delivers insight with clarity, historical context, and a healthy dose of contrarian thinking.

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The Fed, Growth, and the Hidden Recession

Saison 1 · Épisode 2

mercredi 27 août 2025 • Durée 01:01:31

In this episode, we break down the state of the economy, the Fed’s policy stance, inflation risks, and what’s really happening beneath the surface of the stock market. Jim explains why the headline numbers often mask the struggles of many companies, why the S&P 500 looks stretched while much of the market remains undervalued, and what investors should watch as we head into the fall.

Weak GDP growth, jobs slowdown, and why the U.S. may avoid recession despite sluggish data
How fiscal policy, tariffs, the dollar, and monetary policy are shaping growth
Why corporate profits outside the S&P 500 remain below trend despite large-cap strength
The Fed’s inflation obsession, the 2% target debate, and Jackson Hole policy shifts
Jim’s case that inflation fears are overblown, with supporting data on CPI, PPI, wages, and expectations
Historical supports for bull markets (liquidity, interest rates, dollar, confidence) and why they’ve been missing
Divergence between S&P 500 valuations vs. the rest of the market
Structural disconnect between small/mid-caps and large-cap earnings
The opportunity for market broadening if the Fed eases policy
What Jim will be watching heading into year-end

00:00 – Economic growth slowdown and risks of recession
02:00 – Policy backdrop: fiscal, monetary, dollar, and tariffs
07:00 – Why recession may still be avoided
15:00 – Powell, Jackson Hole, and the Fed’s inflation stance
24:00 – Are inflation fears overblown?
36:00 – Inflation surprise index and momentum
37:00 – What supports bull markets (liquidity, rates, dollar, confidence)
41:00 – Trendline analysis: S&P vs. broader market
47:00 – Russell 2000 earnings vs. S&P 500 divergence
52:00 – Corporate profits divergence and policy implications
59:00 – What Jim is watching heading into year-end

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The Case for a Broadening Bull Market

Saison 1 · Épisode 1

vendredi 25 juillet 2025 • Durée 57:15

In the premiere episode of our new monthly series, The Jim Paulsen Show we dig into Jim's latest research and the charts that define today's economic and market landscape. Jim lays out a compelling case for why the private sector is more resilient than many believe, why a recession may not be on the horizon, and why so many parts of the market still look cheap despite record index levels. We explore the implications of tariffs, the underappreciated productivity boom, the potential for a market broadening, and the risks posed by policy uncertainty.

Whether you're a macro thinker, a data-driven investor, or just trying to make sense of this confusing market, Jim brings clarity, charts, and contrarian insight.

🔍 Topics Covered:

Why recession odds may be lower than consensus believes
The disconnect between pessimism and actual economic conditions
The impact of tariffs and why they may be disinflationary
What’s really happening with the hard vs. soft economic data
Why tech jobs are flat even as tech market cap soars
The mystery of weak dividend growth during a bull market
Why most corporate profits are below trend despite strong S&P earnings
What could drive a broadening of the rally
Valuation dispersion and why 76% of industries still look cheap
Evidence micro caps may be leading a shift in market leadership
What falling confidence among the wealthy might signal for stocks
How we’re mismeasuring productivity in the AI era

⏱️ Timestamps:
00:00 – Jim’s contrarian view: why a recession may not happen
02:00 – Private sector balance sheet strength
06:00 – The problem with policy staying tight during slow growth
08:00 – Surprise index vs. hard data and what’s changing
10:50 – Are tariffs truly inflationary?
15:00 – Why financial markets aren't signaling inflation risk
17:50 – Can hard data finally move the Fed?
20:00 – Tech market cap vs. employment: why jobs aren’t growing25:30 – Dividend growth is stalling—what it means29:00 – Corporate profits: below trend for a decade33:00 – S&P profits vs. broader corporate earnings35:00 – Could the rally broaden beyond the Mag 7?38:00 – Micro caps and early signs of leadership shift40:00 – Why falling confidence among the wealthy may be bullish45:00 – 76% of industries are still cheap—how is that possible?48:00 – Sector breadth is historically narrow—why that could change50:00 – Tech’s risk-adjusted returns show surprising strength52:00 – Trump, the Fed, and the risk to central bank independence

1% Growth. Zero Jobs | Jim Paulsen on the Recession Investors Are Missing

Saison 1 · Épisode 8

samedi 7 mars 2026 • Durée 01:01:35

In this episode of the Jim Paulsen Show, Jim joins Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau to break down the macro forces shaping today’s markets and economy. Jim explains why the economy may be far weaker than headline GDP numbers suggest, how technology and AI investment are masking weakness in the broader economy, and why leadership in the stock market may be shifting. The conversation also explores the market implications of geopolitical conflict, the relationship between policy and market leadership, and how investors should think about AI’s long-term economic impact.

Topics covered in this episode

How geopolitical events like the Iran conflict affect markets, volatility, oil prices, and investor sentiment
Why market reactions to geopolitical shocks often fade once the situation is “vetted” by investors
The relationship between oil prices, the US dollar, and global financial markets
Why Paulsen remains constructive on international stocks and emerging markets despite recent volatility
Why energy and food now represent a much smaller share of consumer spending than in past inflation cycles
The argument that inflation fears may be overstated given structural disinflationary forces in the economy
How AI and technological innovation can destroy some jobs while simultaneously creating new economic demand
Why technological progress often lowers costs and expands markets rather than simply eliminating work
The concept that the “new economy” driven by technology investment is now large enough to influence overall GDP growth
Paulsen’s analysis showing that roughly 11 percent of the economy tied to new-era investment is growing rapidly while the remaining 89 percent is barely growing
Why the broader economy may resemble a recession even while headline GDP remains positive
How the dominance of large technology companies in indexes like the S&P 500 may be masking weakness in the broader market
The historical “toggle” between technology leadership and broader market leadership in equity markets
Why policy conditions like the yield curve and monetary easing often drive leadership shifts toward value, small caps, and cyclical stocks

It's Been Dead for 18 Months | Jim Paulsen on the Hidden Market Leadership Change

Saison 1 · Épisode 7

vendredi 6 février 2026 • Durée 01:00:04

In this episode of the Jim Paulsen Show, Jim joins Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau to break down what’s really happening beneath the surface of today’s market and economy. Jim explains why recent market strength may be masking a major leadership transition, why tech’s dominance is quietly fading, and how policy, labor market stress, and uncertainty are shaping the next phase of the cycle. The conversation spans equity leadership, AI and productivity, animal spirits, jobs data, inflation, and why periods of peak uncertainty have historically created opportunity for long-term investors.

Main topics covered
• The emerging shift in market leadership away from mega-cap tech toward small caps, cyclicals, value, and international stocks
• Why tech has underperformed the broader market for over a year and what that signals for portfolio positioning
• How Fed policy, liquidity, the dollar, and the yield curve drive broader market participation
• The idea of a bull within a bull and why this cycle looks different from past tech-driven markets
• AI, productivity growth, and why recent productivity gains may be misleading
• Why measuring productivity in a service- and technology-driven economy is increasingly difficult
• Economic policy uncertainty, market volatility, and why uncertainty has historically favored equity investors
• Warning signs in the labor market, including job growth, unemployment duration, youth employment, and layoffs
• Why weakening jobs data could force further monetary and fiscal easing
• Inflation trends, policy trade-offs, and what matters more for markets going forward

Timestamps
00:00 Market leadership shifts and why small caps and cyclicals are showing new strength
05:00 Tech underperformance and what it means for the broader market
08:00 Can the market rise while tech underperforms
14:00 Animal spirits and early-cycle behavior in overlooked stocks
16:20 AI, productivity, and why recent gains may be a mirage
23:40 Economic policy uncertainty and why markets climb the wall of worry
31:45 The labor market under the hood and why jobs matter most for policy39:30 Structural changes since the financial crisis and the loss of animal spirits49:45 Additional labor market warning signs and savings drawdowns55:50 Inflation trends and why policy support may continue

The Data is Hot. The Economy is Not | Jim Paulsen on What You're Getting Wrong About 2026

Saison 1 · Épisode 6

mardi 6 janvier 2026 • Durée 57:11

In this episode of the Jim Paulsen Show, Jim Paulsen joins Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau to break down what the economy and markets may really be signaling beneath the headline numbers. Drawing from his recent outlook and long history studying market cycles, Jim explains why growth may be weaker than it appears, how policy lags are shaping the outlook, and why today’s market looks very different from past late-cycle environments. The conversation explores the divide between the “new era” economy and the rest of the market, what that means for investors in 2026, and where opportunities may be emerging as monetary and fiscal policy begin to shift.

Topics covered in this episode
• Why headline GDP growth may be overstating the true strength of the economy
• How trade distortions are affecting recent GDP data
• The concept of a “no-shaped economy” and the divide between new era and old era businesses
• Labor market signals that suggest economic sluggishness beneath the surface
• Why this may be one of the most disliked bull markets in history
• The role of policy lags and why easing could matter more than investors expect
• How market concentration has shaped returns over the last several years
• Warning signs emerging within the technology sector
• The relationship between corporate cash levels, R&D spending, and tech leadership
• Why market breadth and old era sectors may become more important going forward
• Thoughts on bonds, stocks, commodities, gold, and portfolio positioning
• Why international and emerging markets could benefit from a weaker dollar
• How investors might think about diversification in an unusual market cycle

Timestamps
00:00 Introduction and key themes from Jim’s outlook
03:00 Why the economy may be weaker than GDP headlines suggest
06:00 Labor market signals and recession-like dynamics
12:00 Policy lags, the Fed, and why growth could soften further
15:00 Market performance after multiple strong years
18:00 The no-shaped economy and the split between new era and old era
24:00 Strange market signals at all-time highs27:00 Valuations, sentiment, and why pessimism matters29:00 Fed easing expectations and consensus forecasts35:00 Warning signs for technology stocks42:00 Corporate cash, R&D spending, and tech leadership risks47:00 Portfolio construction and asset allocation thinking55:00 Final thoughts on opportunities and risks ahead

They’re Fighting Phantom Inflation | Jim Paulsen on Why Growth Broke

Saison 1 · Épisode 5

mardi 2 décembre 2025 • Durée 01:02:23

In this episode, we’re joined again by Jim Paulsen to break down the key themes shaping markets and the economy heading into 2026. Jim explains why policymakers may be fighting the wrong battle, why real sustainable growth has quietly collapsed over the past 20 years, and how shifts in policy, demographics, productivity, inflation, and investor psychology all tie together. We also walk through Jim’s latest charts from Paulsen Perspectives and explore what they mean for stocks, sectors, interest rates, the dollar, and leadership in the year ahead.

Topics covered in this episode:
• The state of inflation and why CPI and PPI may be sending a very different message
• The 20-year collapse in real sustainable GDP growth
• Why job creation, labor force growth, and productivity have all structurally weakened
• The rise in unemployment duration and what it signals about lost “animal spirits”
• How demographics, immigration policy, and cultural shifts are shaping growth
• Productivity puzzles: innovation vs. distraction in a tech-driven economy
• Why the real economic risk may be deflation, not inflation
• How monetary policy, the yield curve, the dollar, and fiscal policy have remained contractionary
• Tariffs as a hidden tax and their real impact on inflation
• How an easing cycle could reshape market leadership in 2026
• Jim’s Total Policy Stimulus Index and what it reveals about small caps, cyclicals, value, and foreign stocks
• The difference between today’s tech cycle and the dot-com bubble
• What a broadening market might look like if policy finally turns supportive
• How international equities could respond to a weaker dollar
• Why tech may underperform without collapsing
• Jim’s expectations for S&P 500 returns in 2026 and the potential for a more balanced leadership environment

Timestamps:
00:00 Market setup and inflation overview
02:00 Reviewing recent corrections and sector broadening
04:00 Bond yields, easing expectations, and fear-based asset leadership
06:00 Tech’s relative performance beginning to fade
07:00 GDP growth collapse over two decades09:00 Structural slowdown in job creation10:30 Labor force growth and aging demographics12:00 The doubling of unemployment duration14:00 Population trends, immigration, and slowing productivity17:00 The rise of de-risking and falling monetary velocity19:00 Trade deficits, globalization, and policy contraction22:00 Why inflation risk may be overstated26:00 CPI/PPI data versus the inflation narrative29:00 Money supply, real rates, and the longest yield curve inversion31:00 The strong dollar as a contractionary force34:00 International stock performance and currency impact35:00 Tax burden relative to slower growth37:00 Tariffs as taxes and their real economic effect39:00 What would it take to restore growth and optimism?42:00 The Total Policy Stimulus Index explained47:00 Policy’s impact on equal-weight, small caps, cyclicals, and value52:00 How foreign stocks respond to policy and the dollar54:00 Tech valuations today vs. the dot-com era55:00 Fed response differences between now and 200057:00 Why today’s tech cycle is structurally different59:00 What 2026 might look like for the S&P 50001:01:00 Why price targets are inherently unreliable01:01:45 Closing thoughts and sign-off

The Case for Permanently Higher Market Valuations | Jim Paulsen

Saison 1 · Épisode 4

dimanche 2 novembre 2025 • Durée 01:08:26

In this episode, Jim Paulsen returns to dive deep into market valuations, why the traditional valuation range may have permanently shifted higher, and how shifts in recession frequency, liquidity, innovation cycles, and policy regimes are reshaping return expectations. We also explore why fear remains a powerful tailwind for markets, the broadening beneath the surface of the AI-led rally, and why Jim believes this cycle could still deliver strong returns even as leadership rotates.

Topics covered:
• Why market valuations may never return to historical norms
• How fewer recessions have structurally boosted market multiples
• The role of liquidity buildup across households and corporations
• Profit productivity and why companies are more valuable today
• The limits of valuation metrics like CAPE and forward PE
• Tech vs the rest of the market and the case for leadership rotation
• Why fear and pessimism are still fueling this bull market
• How policy regimes (monetary and fiscal) drive return frontiers
• Capex cycles, AI infrastructure build-out, and lessons from past tech booms
• Where Jim sees opportunity and where caution is warranted

Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
03:00 Fear, pessimism, and the wall of worry
10:00 Data blackout, volatility, and what markets are signaling
16:00 Valuations breaking historic ranges
22:00 Broad-based valuation expansion across the market
29:00 Why the mean may be drifting higher
33:00 Fewer recessions and higher multiples
40:00 Corporate balance sheets and liquidity boom
42:00 Profit productivity and tech’s structural shift
49:00 Forward PE as a sentiment indicator
51:00 Tech vs the rest of the market
55:00 Innovation cycle vs business cycle
57:00 What’s still cheap and market breadth trends
01:00:00 The risk-return frontier and policy regimes
01:05:00 Final thoughts on AI, capex, and market risk

The Fuel Was Missing. It’s Coming Now | Jim Paulsen on the Support Switch That Just Flipped

Saison 1 · Épisode 3

vendredi 26 septembre 2025 • Durée 01:08:15

In this episode, we sit down with Jim Paulsen to analyze the latest economic and market data through his lens of decades of market experience. Jim shares insights from his Paulsen Perspectives research, covering the job market, the Fed, inflation, valuations, investor confidence, and what they all mean for the future of the economy and markets. We explore why confidence is so low despite a bull market, how Fed policy is shaping market dynamics, and where investors might want to focus as the cycle evolves.

Topics covered in the episode:

The job market’s pivotal role in driving the economy and Fed decisions
Why recent Fed rate cuts may mark a turning point in market support systems
The narrowness of the bull market and how innovation-driven firms diverge from traditional cycles
Investor confidence, the “misery index,” and recession probability models
How easing may broaden market participation beyond large-cap growth
What “animal spirits” mean for small caps, high beta, and IPOs
The disconnect between inflation, bond yields, and growth measures
Gold, cash, crypto, and tech as “fear assets” in today’s environment
The impact of tariffs on profits, wages, and inflation expectations
Valuations in context: historical perspective and the upward bias of multiples

Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction and market overview
02:00 Fed easing, inflation, and recession risks
09:00 Bull market without normal supports
17:00 Narrow leadership and innovative companies
23:55 Confidence and the misery index
29:35 Yield curve, recession probabilities, and Fed policy
34:00 Broadening of market participation
37:00 Animal spirit stocks and small caps
38:00 Inflation, bond yields, and resource unemployment
43:20 Copper-gold ratio and yields
45:10 The role of gold in portfolios
50:00 Cash, crypto, and tech as defensive assets
54:00 Tariffs, inflation, and profit margins59:00 Inflation persistence vs. wage growth01:01:10 Valuations and the upward bias in multiples01:07:00 Closing thoughts and takeaways

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The Jim Paulsen Show – Détails, épisodes et analyse

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