Explorez tous les épisodes du podcast The Jacob Shapiro Podcast
| Titre | Date | Durée | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Did the US Just Abandon Ukraine? | 02 Mar 2025 | 01:02:00 | |
In this emergency episode of the Jacob Shapiro podcast, Jacob and Marko dissect the unexpected and intense Oval Office meeting between President Trump, Ukraine's President Zelensky, and JD Vance. We delve into the rare earth mineral deal, the broader implications for U.S. foreign policy, and Europe's reaction. The conversation touches on Zelensky's passionate defense of Ukraine's position, the viability of continued U.S. support, and the shifting dynamics in global geopolitics. Watch the full clip of the meeting below-> Full link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kEOv4x_FIsc -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (00:42) - Setting the Scene and Marko's Take (08:19) - Historical Context and Jacob's Take (17:04) - Will Russia Turn? (26:38) - Europe's Future in the Balance (29:22) - Does it Matter if Trump Abandons Europe? (34:48) - NATO's Purpose and American Interests (37:06) - Germany's Military History and Current Perception (41:45) - The Multipolar World and American Primacy (Trump and Obama) (50:45) - Zelensky's Leadership and Ukraine's Future -- Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap CI Site: cognitive.investments Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep -- The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com -- Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world. Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- | |||
| Mr. Market Is Not Happy | 28 Feb 2025 | 00:34:40 | |
Though operating at less than 100 percent capacity, Jacob and Rob gather to take stock of how markets are reacting to the changes of the last 6 weeks. They find themselves more optimistic about China, Germany, and Europe than others, and warn about signals that suggest President Trump’s honeymoon economy period is nearing its end. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:15) – Checking in on Mr. Market (12:11) – International Market Over-performance (13:11) – Germany and the Future (22:03) - ...What about the European Union? (23:03) - The EU and India (26:21) - China and the Taiwan Question 35:14-end – China, Taiwan etc. -- Referenced in the Show: -- Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap CI Site: cognitive.investments Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep -- The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com -- Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world. Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- | |||
| #252 - Mexican Leverage | 31 Jan 2025 | 00:56:28 | |
Jacob and Rob break down the tech market shake-up caused by Deep Seek, a rising Chinese AI company, and what it means for U.S.-China relations and global AI competition. They dive into Nvidia’s stock drop, how AI rivalry is driving investor sentiment, and the shift toward cheaper, decentralized tech. The conversation also explores the economic ties between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada, and how these relationships will shape trade policies. Throughout, they stress the need for a clear-eyed view of market trends and stability in U.S.-Mexico relations amid growing tensions with China. Timestamps: (00:02) - Intro (01:06) - Market Reactions and AI Developments (10:24) - Decentralization and Global Dynamics Within AI (34:30) - Shifting Geopolitical Dynamics and Economic Policies (37:15) - Mexico's Economic Position and Geopolitical Leverage (54:14) - U.S. Foreign Policy and Global Primacy -- Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap CI Site: cognitive.investments Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep -- The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com -- Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world. Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- | |||
| Here's Looking At You, Dad | 22 Dec 2023 | 00:28:27 | |
Jacob returns with a few thoughts about family, love, and geopolitics. -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor | |||
| Cybersecurity + Geopolitics (Matt Pines) | 15 Dec 2023 | 00:45:26 | |
Last week of reruns! Jacob Shapiro will be back next week with a full update on his situation and what to expect moving forward. Thank you so so so so much for being so patient with us! In the meantime, we have a fantastic episode with Matt Pines, yet ANOTHER connection via the Twittersphere. Matt breaks down the present day risks associated with cyber warfare and espionage across geopolitical boundaries. Matt is a management consultant at Krebs Stamos and a fellow at the Bitcoin Policy Institute. He is appearing on the podcast in a personal capacity. Here is a link to Matt's white paper on bitcoin. -- Timestamps: (00:00) (01:27) - Cyberwarfare (20:10) - 5G + China + Huawei (28:00) - 34:44 - Trust Networks (34:20) - Has there ever been a full-on cyber war? -- CI Site: cognitive.investments Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor | |||
| The Art of Geopolitics with Stratfor | 08 Dec 2023 | 00:45:26 | |
Rodger Baker and Jacob Shapiro sit down for a discussion about the art and science of doing good geopolitics. Rodger Baker is Executive Director at the Stratfor Center for Applied Geopolitics at RANE – Risk Assistance Network + Exchange. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (02:23) - Mackinder and the Arctic (24:36) - The Art of the Net Assessment (34:30) - The biggest change of the last 25 years…and the biggest change to come (41:44) - Will China invade Taiwan? -- CI Site: cognitive.investments Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor | |||
| Okay But... What IS Geopolitics? | 01 Dec 2023 | 00:52:30 | |
Today we have a classic Perch Pod episode with Phil Kelly. Phil’s a Professor at Emporia State University. He is the author of Classical Geopolitics which is one of the five books Jacob has assigned almost every geopolitical analyst he has ever trained. He and Jacob talk about the definition and intention of Geopolitics and delve into the Geopolitics of Latin America. -- Timestamps: (01:10) - Intro (04:47) - Why Geopolitics? (07:18) - What is Geopolitics? (25:19) - Geopolitics of the “Three Americas” (47:16) - Mexico + South America- Discussing Immigration and Climate Change -- Referenced in the Show: -- CI Site: cognitive.investments Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor | |||
| Remapping Global Supply Chains | 28 Nov 2023 | 00:50:39 | |
Rachel Ziemba makes her debut on the podcast to discuss what you missed at APEC while everyone was focused on Xi and Biden, prospects for growth in Venezuelan oil production, and why the market might be a little too sanguine about oil prices in 2024. -- Timestamps: (00:51) – Argentina (05:58) – Indonesia/APEC (16:09) – Venezuela (26:10) – Dark underbelly of the economy (31:51) – Iran (39:00) – Oil -- Referenced in the Show: -- CI Site: cognitive.investments Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor | |||
| Strategic Intelligence Lessons for Decision-Makers | 24 Nov 2023 | 00:42:21 | |
Jacob pops onto Emre Doğru's Youtube show, Strategy Floor to discuss how Israeli intelligence failed to predict the Hama,s attack, the common mistakes in strategic intelligence analysis and forecasting, and managerial lessons for decision-makers. -- Referenced in the Show: Emre's Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5xJA7wKNtJY Emre's Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@ceyhunemredogru -- CI Site: cognitive.investments Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor | |||
| President Javier Milei | 20 Nov 2023 | 00:22:43 | |
Jacob Shapiro fires up the hot-take factory to give you some fresh, piping-hot analysis of Javier Milei’s surprise landslide victory in Argentina’s presidential elections. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Javier Milei -- CI Site: cognitive.investments Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor | |||
| Demystifying Chips, US-China Relations, & Intellectual Property | 20 Nov 2023 | 01:00:19 | |
Jacob welcomes Paul Triolo onto the podcast for a nuanced treatment of the relationship between geopolitics and technology – in the context of U.S.-China relations, in the context of multipolar geopolitics, in the context of artificial intelligence, and how all these things are affecting the semiconductor industry in particular. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:02) – Current perceptions of deglobalization (07:02) - Current reality of deglobalization (15:15) - Is IP ever safe? (24:01) - Semiconductors & AI & China (30:08) - The trajectory of US/China relations (39:40) - What's next for semiconductor production? (47:20) - Geopolitical competition and the future of tech -- CI Site: cognitive.investments Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor | |||
| Playing Golf (Probably) Won’t Make You a Better Investor | 18 Nov 2023 | 00:52:39 | |
Jacob and Rob gather for a chat about the big Xi-Biden meeting on the sidelines of APEC and what it means for the future of the bilateral relationship. Then they turn to passive v. active investing – and explain why playing golf won’t make you a better investor. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (03:30) - U.S-China relations (32:04) - Investing -- Referenced in the Show:
-- CI Site: cognitive.investments Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor | |||
| The Implosion of Ukraine | 13 Nov 2023 | 00:49:58 | |
Jacek and Jacob brave illness to reunite on the podcast. Jacek offers a gloomy perspective on the Russia-Ukraine war, an optimistic perspective on Poland’s future no matter who rules its government – and a lesson to learn for the democratic world from Turkish pragmatism. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:52) - Polish elections (09:00) - Will Ukraine be a part of EU/NATO? (14:27) - Russia-Ukraine war (20:45) - Can Ukraine produce their own ammunition? (22:45) - Nuclear proliferation (28:00) - Russia-Ukraine war (29:16) - What's next for Poland/Polish awakening (40:05) - Turkey in relation to Poland/Ukraine (44:43) - Israeli's lack of strategic depth -- Referenced in the Show: -- CI Site: cognitive.investments Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor | |||
| #251: Don't Forget The DRC | 25 Jan 2025 | 00:22:28 | |
Jacob discusses several key geopolitical developments, focusing on President Trump's recent inauguration and the implications of his trade policies. Notably, Trump did not immediately raise tariffs on China as anticipated, signaling a potential shift towards negotiation rather than confrontation in international trade. Shapiro also highlights the significance of Secretary of State Marco Rubio's first diplomatic visit to Panama, suggesting it could mark a renewed focus on Latin America. Additionally, he reflects on Ursula von der Leyen's remarks at Davos regarding the complexities of global trade and the need for Europe to establish a more cohesive capital market. Throughout the discussion, Shapiro emphasizes the importance of adaptability and resilience in navigating today's unpredictable geopolitical landscape. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (02:03) - Navigating a New Administration's Trade Policies (10:17) - The Future of European Integration (13:44) - Current Events in the Democratic Republic of Congo (19:21) - Resilience in a Changing World -- Referenced in the Show: -- Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap CI Site: cognitive.investments Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep -- The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com -- Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world. Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- | |||
| Something Rotten In The State of Ukraine | 10 Nov 2023 | 00:40:41 | |
Jacob is on the road and Rob is fresh off earnings season but that doesn’t stop them from churning out a pod on life’s most persistent questions. They explore the demise of a nuclear project in the U.S. and what it means for the U.S. energy economy, Jacob comes clean about feeling pessimistic about Ukraine, and Rob talks about credit quality issues in the U.S. economy. It’s not all doom & gloom though – Brazil continues to shine. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (02:07) – Nuclear problems in the US (15:30) – Brazil updates (22:15) - Troubles for Ukraine (32:50) – Credit problems -- CI Site: cognitive.investments Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor | |||
| Nile to Negev: Hafsa Halawa’s Take on Regional Turmoil | 08 Nov 2023 | 01:00:17 | |
Come for Hafsa Halawa’s deep insight on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict from a regional point of view. Stay for her insight on the Sudanese civil war, the future of the Egyptian and Ethiopian states, and how everything in the region is interconnected. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (02:00) -9:35 – Regional considerations (11:30) – Israel's perspective and strategic goals (19:04) – Egypt, Jordan and the reinvigoration of Palestinian politics (7:57) – Palestinian perspective (38:22) – Sudan’s civil war (48:40) – Egypt's spiraling situation (53:46) – Ethiopia's civil war -- Referenced in the Show: -- CI Site: cognitive.investments Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor | |||
| Hard Times in the 21st Century w/ Helen Thompson | 06 Nov 2023 | 01:04:11 | |
Professor Helen Thompson of Cambridge University joins the podcast to talk about her recent book. She traces three histories – geopolitical, economic, and democratic – to explain how the world reached its current level of disorder and why she sees hard times on the horizon. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (02:55) - Book Summary (06:30) - Dealing with a changing landscape (12:09) - Understanding Putin's motivations/US Energy (17:30) - Suez Crisis and Germany and Energy (25:11) - What's next for Germany and the EU? (33:24) - Turkey (39:08) - Economic nationhood (43:54) - Inflation and monetary policy (54:37) - Are democratic or authoritarian regimes more efficient? (59:00) - Future of the UK -- CI Site: cognitive.investments Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor | |||
| Monopolies and Innovation | 03 Nov 2023 | 00:54:24 | |
Jacob and Rob break down the Jerome's latest Fed announcement, inventory and manufacturing cycles, China's interesting new approach to semiconductors, and the inherent danger of monopolistic industries. They venture into the auto world and discuss recent issues with scaling up EV production, before turning to macro-trends and the geopolitical trends (in Mexico, Israel, and Saudi Arabia) that are driving CI's macro strategy. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (02:23) - The Fed/Rates (07:31) - Global cycles (11:54) - China's new semiconductor (13:54) - Monopolies and innovation (22:15) - EV demand and production (32:31) - CI's macro moves and geopolitics (36:34) - Mexico, risk, and manufacturing (43:00) - Suadi Arabia, war, and oil -- Referenced in the Show: -- CI Site: cognitive.investments Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor | |||
| The Worst Is Over for Argentina? | 30 Oct 2023 | 01:16:57 | |
Jacob welcomes Elohim and Ignacio back on the podcast for a much more upbeat discussion about Argentina’s future in light of last week’s surprising triumph for Sergio Massa against the chainsaw-wielding libertarian Javier Milei. They also address recent changes in U.S. policy toward Venezuela – and explain why the country may be reaching a critical juncture. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:30) – Argentina election results (10:04) – What is Peronism? (17:34) – The role of social media (26:11)) – Milei’s chances in the next round (42:35) – The role of the military (51:15) – What happens next? (56:54) – Venezuela -- Referenced in the Show: -- CI Site: cognitive.investments Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor | |||
| Don’t Trust The Gurus | 27 Oct 2023 | 00:56:07 | |
Jacob and Rob offer thoughts about U.S. macro out-performance and some concerning signals coming out of Europe. From there, they offer some thoughts about CI’s unique approach to using geopolitics in the context of investing. They close with thoughts about the life-cycle of analysts and investors and a cautionary tale about guru-syndrome. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:55) - US Macro (08:20) - US consumers are doing well?? (12:10) - Economy is good, so why is Joe's rating bad?? (15:15) - Migration surge at US border (17:25) - Immigration trends (24:00) - Europe Updates (32:53) – Geopolitics and investing -- CI Site: cognitive.investments Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor | |||
| Uncertainty and Ideology | 20 Oct 2023 | 01:10:13 | |
Jacob and Rob get introspective and take a step back from the day-to-day grind of the newsflow recently to talk about the rise of uncertainty, the importance of what you choose to pay attention to, and the impact of ideology on geopolitical constraints. Along the way they talk about U.S.-Venezuela relations, the Israeli-Palestinian War, Hindu nationalism, the future of Mexico, and more. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (3:35) - Attention and Uncertainty (12:55) - Fear and Uncertainty (17:50) - Why are markets so unstable right now? (25:33) - The Law of Unintended Consequences (36:00) - Are we headed in a good direction? (41:08) - Does a multi-polar world increase the importance of ideology and preferences relative to constraints? (56:25) - Ideologies are malleable at the moment (01:02:05) - How do we apply these concept in investment? -- CI Site: cognitive.investments Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor | |||
| Turkey’s Perspective | 17 Oct 2023 | 00:32:19 | |
Jacob welcomes Emre Dogru back on to the podcast to discuss Turkey’s view of the violence happening in the Middle East. Emre takes a break from eating baklava to explain why he thinks the violence spiraling out of control is unlikely at this point – but he and Jacob explore scenarios for escalation that could prove this view wrong. Jacob will be appearing in a video on Emre’s channel next week on the concept of intelligence failures and lessons to learn for executives – we’ll be sure to share it with you when it comes out. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (02:41) – Turkey’s view of the war (09:54) – Turkey and Iran: Frenemies 4 lyfe (12:20) - Turkey in a regional war (16:45) – Turkey, energy, Saudi Arabia (19:23) - Prospects for regional war (26:49) – Turkey-China (28:25) – What if the conflict spills? -- Referenced in the Show: -- CI Site: cognitive.investments Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor | |||
| The Future of the Post-Soviet World | 16 Oct 2023 | 00:53:19 | |
Jacob welcomes Eugene Chausovsky, former Stratfor alum and now Senior Director at Newlines Institute, to discuss all things post-soviet: wtf is going on in the Western Balkans, prospects for Ukraine’s inclusion in the EU, whether Azerbaijan will stop at Nagorno-Karabakh, and the many intersecting interests of Central Asia. From there they discuss China and what lessons China may have learned from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine re: Taiwan. They also make a global plea for more Georgian food, plz and thx. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:14) – Serbia/Kosovo (06:08) - Ukraine/Russia (19:07) – The South Caucasus (31:36) – Central Asia (41:05) - end – China -- Referenced in the Show: -- CI Site: cognitive.investments Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor | |||
| Fraying World Order - Intrigue Outloud Crosspost | 14 Oct 2023 | 00:47:10 | |
On today's Intrigue Outloud, Ethan is joined by Intrigue co-founder John Fowler and Jacob Shapiro, Partner and Director of Geopolitical Analysis at Cognitive Investments, to break down the latest from the conflict in Israel and Gaza, and to consider what the fighting tells us about the state of the world order. Thanks to our sponsor, Millennium Space Systems. -- CI Site: cognitive.investments Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor | |||
| #250 - Hungarian Baby Incentives | 17 Jan 2025 | 00:57:55 | |
Jacob and Rob Larity dive into another weekly update, focusing on the intertwined economies of the United States, Canada, and Mexico. They discuss how the U.S. administration's approach to tariffs and trade could significantly impact these neighboring countries, particularly highlighting Mexico's unique position to leverage its relationship with the U.S. amidst rising tensions. They explore the implications of economic policies, such as the recent jobs report and inflation data, while also dissecting the emotional drivers behind public sentiment on inflation forecasts. The conversation touches upon historical parallels in presidential second terms, underscoring the challenges that may lie ahead for Trump as he navigates a politically divided landscape. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (00:46) - Naptime and the Economy (22:35) - The Impact of Tariffs on Canada and Mexico (29:29) - The Economic Landscape of Mexico and Canada (45:35) - The Importance of Maritime Choke Points -- Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap CI Site: cognitive.investments Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep -- The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com -- Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world. Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- | |||
| What You Missed During the War | 13 Oct 2023 | 01:08:00 | |
Jacob and Rob join forces to catch you up on all the important geopolitical and market developments that the Israel-Palestine war has obscured. They tackle carnage in the U.S. bond market and some very worrying developments in the Chinese economy. From there, they briefly explore gold as an investment opportunity as well as the profile of a good emerging market investment, before closing with thoughts on energy markets. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:02) – U.S. Treasuries (11:14) - Government spending increases... an issue?? (14:15) – China’s treadmill to hell (20:45) - What is recapitalization? (24:00) - China's banking consolidation (25:46) - Can China use ForEx to wipe out their liabilities? (28:00) - Gold (34:34) - Emerging markets -> Chile (38:55) - Emerging markets -> Turkey (45:45) - Emerging markets -> Argentina (47:00) – Oil and natural gas -- CI Site: cognitive.investments Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor | |||
| This Time Is Different | 12 Oct 2023 | 01:07:22 | |
Jacob welcomes Kamran Bokhari back to the podcast to discuss the Israeli-Palestinian war. They explore regional considerations, Iran’s role and motive behind supporting Hamas, and consider scenarios for what could happen next. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:05) - Hamas' tradecraft (11:42) - Iran and the West Bank (19:00) - How does this affect the image of Hamas and Iran? (28:17) - What is next for Iran? (34:55) - Does Israel go after Hezbollah? (40:40) - Joe Biden's next steps (45:44) - Where is Turkey in all of this? (51:00) - Egypt's role in this crisis (55:51) - The Muslim world's take -- CI Site: cognitive.investments Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor | |||
| Not The Worst It Can Be: An Israeli Perspective | 11 Oct 2023 | 00:50:21 | |
Jacob welcomes Israeli geopolitical analyst Nitzan David Fuchs to offer an Israeli perspective on the terrible events of the past few days and the difficult weeks ahead. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (03:15) - Israel's intelligence failure (08:15) - Israel/Hamas situation update (10:20) – Hamas’s intentions (17:08) - Is Iran behind this? (22:12) - What are Israel's strategic goals? (29:33) - How do hostages fit into the situation? (36:00) - How long does Israel have to accomplish its goals? (38:59) - How will this affect Israel's relationships with Arab neighbors? -- Referenced in the Show: Nitzan's Twitter: https://twitter.com/nitzandfux Substack: https://nitzangreatgame.substack.com Great Game Pod: https://greatgame.blog -- CI Site: cognitive.investments Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor | |||
| Settling Scores | 09 Oct 2023 | 01:25:38 | |
Cousin Marko is back at long last – he and Jacob discuss why U.S. elections are the most important thing in the world geopolitically and all the myriad ways a multipolar world is influencing the balance of power and investment decisions. They close with the best basketball analysis you’ll find anywhere in the U.S. YEAH WE SAID IT! -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (02:00) – U.S. Elections (16:53) – Score settling in geopolitics (31:35) – Europe x China relations (43:47) – Ideologies under multipolarity (50:45) - China and the U.S./investment implications (1:00:25) – Over/Under (1:06:54)-end – Basketball -- CI Site: cognitive.investments Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor | |||
| The First Israeli-Palestinian War | 08 Oct 2023 | 00:29:15 | |
Jacob is in the middle of Mississippi without his fancy microphone, but that doesn’t stop him from recording a reaction to the Hamas attack on Israel and Israel’s declaration of war in response. Jacob tries to compartmentalize the politics and emotion of the situation – a nearly impossible task – to explain what is going on at both a local and regional level and what this escalation in violence will mean. -- CI Site: cognitive.investments Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor | |||
| Opium War Lessons (For Fentanyl) | 06 Oct 2023 | 00:53:53 | |
Jacob and Rob are on the same continent for a change! They try to make sense of recent volatility in oil prices and take a victory lap on being ahead of the curve on the bloodbath in bond markets. From there, they explore the U.S.-Mexico-China love triangle and what history can and can’t teach us about the future of those three countries. Last but not least is Ukraine’s quest to become the Israel of Eastern Europe and whether Kyiv can produce weapons for itself in sufficient quality and quantity to maintain its counteroffensive against Russia. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:06) - Oil/Crude (07:11) - Macro Context/Bond carnage (16:47) - US x Mexico x China relations (30:45) - Is the US reliving Chinese history with fentanyl (40:50) - Migration and coordination (45:00) - Ukraine wants to build its own weapons -- Referenced in the Show: The Third Opium War – https://www.cirsd.org/en/horizons/horizons-winter-2019-issue-no-13/the-third-opium-war CRS backgrounder on U.S.-Mexico relations – https://sgp.fas.org/crs/row/R42917.pdf -- CI Site: cognitive.investments Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor | |||
| Agriculture x Geopolitics (RealAgriculture Crosspost) | 02 Oct 2023 | 00:37:09 | |
Jacob Shapiro and Shaun Haney unpack the India-Canada diplomatic nightmare of the last few weeks and how the Ukraine/Russia war might end. Link to RealAg Post: https://www.realagriculture.com/2023/09/frontlines-national-interests-vs-ideology-indian-separatism-and-western-support-for-ukraine/ -- CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/ CI Website: https://cognitive.investments CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/ Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340 -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Referenced In The Show: -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets. | |||
| The Politics of Hope | 29 Sep 2023 | 00:49:03 | |
Jacob and Rob dive into some key macro developments – and why they confirm some of CI’s contrarian investment theses. From there, they discuss recent problems in the European Union and Mitsubishi Motor’s decision to leave China, before doing a rapid-fire set of topics to close the podcast. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:20) - Macro Overview (19:20) – EU problems (25:20) - No optimism in EU (36:06) – Japan automakers leave China (40:15) - 4 interesting events -- CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/ CI Website: https://cognitive.investments CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/ Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340 -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets. | |||
| Hope is the Last Thing that Dies | 25 Sep 2023 | 01:02:25 | |
Jacob welcomes Daniel Stelter to the podcast to begin his research process into the future of the German economy with a sober conversation with an expert who thinks Germany is a long-term short. Dr. Stelter's take differs greatly from the one we take at CI, and we really enjoyed hearing his perspective on the future of Germany. Dr. Stelter is the founder of the German Discussion Forum Beyond the Obvious (www.think-beyondtheobvious.com), focusing on strategic and macroeconomic issues. He has written several books, mostly in German. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (05:00) - Why are you pessimistic about Germany? (06:04) - Germany's demographic problems (09:35) – Germany’s education problems (14:00) - Germany's energy problems (19:39) - Why is Germany failing in education? (25:00) - Why pessimist about German demographic trends ? (37:00) - “Deindustrialization” and other fairy tales (44:49) - How bad will things get? (53:33) - How to fix Germany? (57:16) - A few thoughts on the future of the EU -- CI Website: https://cognitive.investments Jacob Website: https://jacobshapiro.com Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/ Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340 -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Referenced In The Show: www.think-beyondtheobvious.com -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets. | |||
| Why Should I Care About Nagorno-Karabakh? | 22 Sep 2023 | 01:04:42 | |
Jacob continues to fight through a cold to bring you the geopolitical content you know and love. His weekly chat with Rob starts off with Brazil – and why an interest rate cut in Brazil should matter a big deal from an investment point of view. From there, they touch on the top developments of the week in the South Caucasus and Ukraine before philosophizing on Canada-India relations. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:20) - Snot (02:02) - Brazil cut interest rates (11:11) - Brazil/US real estate liquidity (16:37) - Interest rates, commodities, manufacturing in China (22:51) - Nagorno-Karabakh (30:18) - How weak is Russia? What's next? (33:05) - Why should I care about Nagorno-Karabakh? (38:44) - Ukrainian Worries (46:00) - India and Canada -- CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/ CI Website: https://cognitive.investments CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/ Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340 -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Referenced In The Show: -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets. | |||
| #249 - Trumpismo Rising | 14 Jan 2025 | 01:13:25 | |
Jacob and Elohim Monard dive into the significant shifts in voting patterns among the Latino community in the recent U.S. presidential election, highlighting how Trump's appeal has grown, particularly among younger Latino voters. Jacob and Elo discuss the complexities behind these trends, noting that while Trump secured around 40% of the Latino vote, demographic breakdowns reveal nuanced support, especially among Latino men and younger generations. Elo emphasizes that the Latino population is diverse, and their political alignment is influenced by various factors, including migration stories, geographic locations, and generational differences. The conversation further explores how the political dynamics in the U.S. reflect broader trends in Latin America, suggesting that Trump's brand of populism, or "Trumpismo," may find resonance beyond U.S. borders. The episode concludes with reflections on how these evolving narratives will shape both Latino politics and U.S. relations with Latin America moving forward. -- Timestamps: (00:03) - Intro (01:34) - Analyzing the Latino Vote in the 2024 Presidential Election (22:03) - The Changing Dynamics of Latino Political Support (28:01) - The Impact of Social Media on Political Awareness Among Young Latinos (44:23) - The Evolving Identity of Hispanics in America (58:33) - The Rise of Trumpismo and Its Implications (01:03:41) - The Political Landscape: A Shift in Focus -- Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap CI Site: cognitive.investments Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep -- The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com -- Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world. Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- | |||
| The Pitfalls of Green Energy Policies | 15 Sep 2023 | 00:48:21 | |
Jacob and Rob reunite to discuss developments in geopolitics and markets. They talk about environmental policies and their discontents, explore the hysteria on German deindustrialization, and offer a few thoughts on China’s recent tech resilience. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:24) –German Industrialization (06:00) - The backlash against Green Politics (22:17) - German Industrialization 2.0 (39:28) - China’s tech resilience -- CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/ CI Website: https://cognitive.investments CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/ Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340 -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets. | |||
| 50 Years Since Allende - An Update on Chile | 11 Sep 2023 | 00:47:49 | |
Jacob welcomes Dr. Robert Funk onto the podcast to discuss how Chile has changed over the last 50 years, and more importantly how it will change over the next 10. They briefly explore the legacy of the coup against Allende before exploring why Chile has always been a little bit different than the rest of Latin America…and whether Chile can avoid being caught between great power competition in the years ahead. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (02:27) - The legacy of the Allende coup (08:33) - Chile's development (12:35) - Chile’s constitutional process (15:50) - Another social explosion? (18:00) - Is Chile a good investment? (22:50) - Why does Chile have strong institutions? (27:00) - Chile’s global position (energy, trade, politics) (31:42) - China's attractiveness to Chile (34:20) - Chile’s regional geopolitics (39:30) – Chile’s future (42:00) - Ideological and political choices (43:50) - Will Chileans ever feel like the coup was justified? -- Links: Dr Funk’s article: https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/fifty-years-later-he-haunts-us-still/ Christopher Hitchens article: https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v24/n13/christopher-hitchens/11-september-1973 CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/ CI Website: https://cognitive.investments CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/ Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340 -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets. | |||
| The Modern Geopolitics of Turkey | 08 Sep 2023 | 00:42:34 | |
Jacob welcomes Ryan Bohl back onto the podcast to discuss their respective deep-dive reports into Turkey’s geopolitics. They go back and forth about whether Istanbul or Anatolia is Turkey’s core before taking a very macro view at Turkey’s foreign relations and the risks/opportunities ahead for the Turkish state. Ryan’s report: https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/modern-geopolitics-turkey Jacob’s report is only available for CI clients. Email jacob@cognitive.investments to discuss access. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:35) – Istanbul v Ankara (06:35) - Turkey's Economy (14:00) - Turkish Coalitions (17:10) - Turkey and Russia (22:27) – Turkey and NATO (27:30) - Turkey and China (30:35) - Erdogan's Policy (32:15) - Turkey and the Middle East (38:00) - Predictions -- CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/ CI Website: https://cognitive.investments CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/ Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340 -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Referenced In The Show: -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets. | |||
| Japan: A Story of Stagnation and Change | 04 Sep 2023 | 00:52:37 | |
Jacob welcomes Professor Stephen Nagy onto the podcast to talk about Japan’s internal contradictions, its influential foreign policy, and the role Japan will play in protecting its cherished “free and open Indo-Pacific.” They even spend a few minutes talking about Canada (you’re welcome, Canada!) -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (03:00) - Migration (06:36) - Changes in Japan's countryside (10:15) - Stagnation in Japan (15:43) - Japanese/Chinese relations (21:50) - South China Sea (28:42) - Chinese military vs. Japanese military (32:40) - Japan and the Korean Peninsula (38:40) - North Korea (42:11) - Japan and India/Southeast Asia (46:30) - Canada -- CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/ CI Website: https://cognitive.investments CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/ Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340 -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Referenced In The Show: -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets. | |||
| The Depreciable Life of Information | 01 Sep 2023 | 01:07:53 | |
Jacob and Rob take a step back from the day-to-day grind of the news flow to talk about how they think about information more broadly. They take a philosophical dive into the challenges of our current media environment, parsing through their own participation in the phenomenon and how they filter out the noise. They finish with some best practices on information gathering. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:32) - How to think about information (13:15) - The challenges of information overload (19:11) - Participating in the media environment (24:50) - Healthy skepticism (26:30) - Journalism (33:00) - Information gathering tactics (39:00) - The human brain, aging, and information (48:00) - The refraction of old models (52:40) - The value of being a contrarian -- CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/ CI Website: https://cognitive.investments CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/ Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340 -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Referenced In The Show: -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets. | |||
| Hope and Change in Latin America | 28 Aug 2023 | 00:52:57 | |
Jacob welcomes back Elohim Monard to the podcast – who brings with him fellow Latin America expert Igancio Asis. They discuss the momentous political events in Guatemala, Argentina, and Ecuador over the past week and set the stage for deeper conversations in the future about the role of criminal enterprises in Latin American politics, whether Argentina can ever really change, and the future of China in the region, among other things. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (03:00) – Guatemalan Elections (14:44) – Argentinian Elections (40:40) – Ecuador -- CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/ CI Website: https://cognitive.investments CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/ Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340 -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Referenced In The Show: -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets. | |||
| WTF Happened to Prigozhin?! | 25 Aug 2023 | 00:20:51 | |
Jacob fires up the hot-take machine to confront the news about Prigozhin’s death head on, before doing a brief tour of the world to give listeners a “global sitrep” before he heads out on vacation. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (00:55) – Prigozhin (08:06) – BRICS (12:00) – India (14:52) – Ethiopia (15:52) – Guatemala -- CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/ CI Website: https://cognitive.investments CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/ Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340 -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Referenced In The Show: -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets. | |||
| Superconductors and The Future of Fusion | 21 Aug 2023 | 01:05:44 | |
Jacob Shapiro welcomes Myles Stapelberg, a member of CI’s Innovation Advisory Board, back onto the podcast to discuss the news about the “discovery” of a room temperature, ambient pressure superconductor. From there, the pivot to developments in nuclear fusion over the past 6 months and some of the challenges and opportunities in the fusion space – a subject bereft with lofty promises, sensationalism…but also real progress. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (03:32) - What is a superconductor? (12:00) - What is LK99? (14:40) - Fake superconductor claims (19:00) - Is LK99 significant? (22:30) - Prospects for a usable room temp superconductor (25:45) - New developments in fusion 22:03 (30:00) - Diving into fusion technology (36:33) - Helion x Microsoft partnership (44:40) - Will we see fusion reactors within our lifetime? (53:00) - Which country is developing fusion the fastest? (57:25) - Can we stop using fossil fuels altogether? -- CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/ CI Website: https://cognitive.investments CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/ Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340 -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Referenced In The Show: -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets. | |||
| Call Me “Jake Solo” 😏 | 18 Aug 2023 | 00:19:45 | |
Jacob takes to the mic alone to update you on the latest geopolitical developments in the world while Rob, Cousin Marko, and seemingly everyone else in the world is on vacation. Must be nice! -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:51) – Argentinian Primary Elections (03:36) – Panama Canal (04:40) – Ethiopia and Nigeria (08:48) – Nagorno-Karabakh (09:39) – Wheat (12:29) – China (16:00) – Germany -- CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/ CI Website: https://cognitive.investments CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/ Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340 -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Referenced In The Show: -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets. | |||
| Canadian Beef (RealAg Crosspost) | 14 Aug 2023 | 00:27:32 | |
Jacob is featured on RealAg Radio with Shaun Haney! They'll dig into China’s economic and social standing and what Russia might do next. You’ll also hear from Joyce Parslow, with Canada Beef, on new culture, lifestyle, health and wellness information programs launched for Canadian beef AND a spotlight interview with Tom Barrie of Koch Ag Services on comparing nitrogen stabilizers. Check out RealAg Radio here: https://www.realagriculture.com/category/realag-radio/ -- CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/ CI Website: https://cognitive.investments CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/ Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340 -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Referenced In The Show: -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets. | |||
| #248 - Yet Another New World Order 🙄 | 10 Jan 2025 | 00:58:39 | |
Jacob Shapiro returns from paternity leave, jumping right into a discussion about the surprising implications of Trump's recent comments on military intervention and territorial ambitions. He compares his sixth-grade imagination of invading Qatar to Trump's statements about Greenland and the Gulf of Mexico, exploring the potential geopolitical ripple effects of such rhetoric. The conversation also delves into the economic landscape, particularly how anticipated tariffs under a Trump administration could impact U.S. relations with Canada and Mexico, as well as the broader implications for inflation and the labor market. Additionally, Jacob highlights a noteworthy thaw in Japan-China relations, suggesting that Japan may be recalibrating its foreign policy approach amidst changing global dynamics. Finally, the episode touches on Germany's evolving political climate and the potential for impactful reforms as the country navigates its economic challenges. -- Timestamps: Chapters: (00:00) - Intro (we're so back) (03:16) - The Shift in Foreign Policy Perspectives (12:21) - Trump's Foreign Policy (19:34) - Macro-Econ Checkup (25:18) - The Impact of Immigration on Labor Markets and Inflation (35:17) - Shifting Dynamics: US Energy Policy and International Relations (40:54) - Japan's Evolving Foreign Policy (46:47) - The Shifting Political Landscape in Germany (53:11) - The Economic Shift in Germany -- Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap CI Site: cognitive.investments Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep -- The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com -- Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world. Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- | |||
| The Pain of Deglobalization | 11 Aug 2023 | 01:15:48 | |
Chase pinch hits for Rob in CI’s weekly update with Jacob. Chase offers a sober take on inflation, before Jacob and Chase explain their bullishness on natural gas and energy in general for the rest of the year. They close with an examination of Japan’s recent moves – and explore how deglobalization is affecting both Japan and China in tandem. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Introduction (01:20) - Inflation (10:08) - Jerome's Take (15:05) - Chinese Deflation (20:00) - Higher Commodities (22:30) - Natural Gas (33:50) - Coal (42:00) - Cannabis (43:40) - Telecom and 5G (45:16) - Japan Update (56:13) - China and Japan's Relationship (01:00:30) - China's Economy -- CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/ CI Website: https://cognitive.investments CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/ Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340 -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Referenced In The Show: -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets. | |||
| Colonialism 2.0 - The Scramble for Africa | 10 Aug 2023 | 00:59:59 | |
Sim Tack rejoins the podcast to pick up where he and Jacob left off a month ago: about the deteriorating security situation in the Sahel. Sim and Jacob discuss the nitty-gritty of the security situation and how it raises disturbing opportunities for radicalized jihadist voices in the region. From there, they wax philosophical about whether Africa is facing a new era of colonialism and how to approach the broader challenges facing the region, before closing with some brief thoughts on Russia and Ukraine. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Introduction (02:00) – Military intervention in Niger (05:00) - If there is an intervention in Niger- who? (09:00) - Regional Interests and jihadist opportunities (12:00) - Realistic interventions (18:00) - How do you contextualize this in the larger Saheli context? (25:30) - Does this matter for the world? (31:40) - What are Russia and China thinking? (35:20) - Neocolonialism 2.0 (41:46) - Chinese Interests (47:25) - Should we intervene in Niger? (55:00 - Russia-Ukraine Update -- CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/ CI Website: https://cognitive.investments CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/ Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340 -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Referenced In The Show: -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets. | |||
| Niger’s Coup | 09 Aug 2023 | 01:01:39 | |
Paul Melly joins the podcast for the first time to offer some much-needed insightful analysis on the developing political situation inside of Niger and the Sahel in general. Jacob and Paul discuss the coup itself and why it looks like the junta is here to stay. They discuss the myriad external actors – France, the U.S., Nigeria, ECOWAS, China, Russia, the EU and Algeria, to name just a few – and how they are thinking about the situation. Paul closes with his best guess on what happens next. Saheli Map - https://cdn.britannica.com/44/241344-050-084F77EE/Locator-map-Sahel.jpg WSJ Article - https://washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/08/03/mohamed-bazoum-coup-niger-democracy/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (02:40) - Paul's background (09:00) - Niger Coup Recap (20:00) - How stable is the region or new regime? (29:08) - External actor interest (44:00) - What happens next? -- CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/ CI Website: https://cognitive.investments CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/ Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340 -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Referenced In The Show: -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets. | |||