Jacob and Rob parse some of President-elect Trump’s first cabinet picks and what it might mean for economic policy. They compare previous approaches to economic policy and make some provocative comparisons. From there, they turn to China’s (underwhelming) “stimulus” announcement last week, and close with some thoughts on Japan’s recent election.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:54) - Global Ice Trade

(03:56) - Scott Besant's Economic Policies

(18:51) - Historical Comparisons and Economic Models

(33:21) - The Facade of Dollar Exchange

(34:11) - El Salvador's Bitcoin Bet

(35:53) - Trump's Cabinet Picks and Policy Clashes

(37:08) - China's Economic Strategies and Stimulus

(48:23) - Japan's Political Landscape

(58:20) - China's Global Investments

(59:39) - Concluding Thoughts on Global Dynamics

--

Referenced in the Show:

Link to application for Club CI:  https://bit.ly/club-ci

--

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

While everyone has been worried about U.S. elections, Japan held elections too – with a result that has upended everything we’ve known about Japanese politics since 2009. To understand what has changed and what is at stake, Jacob is joined by Japan expert Tobias Harris – they chat about changes in Japan and why underestimating Japan is a bad idea. They also discuss Tobias’s recent biography on former Japanese PM Shinzo Abe and his legacy.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:33) - Japan 101

(08:07) – Japanese disaffection

(16:26) – Japanese paralysis

(19:17) – Zoom out

(23:31) – China

(31:00) – ROK/Japan

(36:45) – Shinzo Abe

--

Referenced in the Show:

Link to Tobias’s book: https://www.amazon.com/Iconoclast-Shinzo-Abe-New-Japan/dp/1787383105

--

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Jacob welcomes Hamidreza Azizi, Visiting Fellow at German Institute for International and Security Affairs, onto the podcast for a special episode on the escalation of fighting between Iran and Israel. This podcast episode delves into the complex and precarious situation faced by Iran amidst escalating regional tensions and internal political strife. Hamidreza shares his insights on Iran's strategic options, which he characterizes as increasingly grim and desperate. The discussion highlights Iran's recent missile strikes on Israel as a sign of desperation rather than strength, aiming to control damage and assert some level of deterrence in a rapidly deteriorating situation. They also touch on the internal political dynamics in Iran, including the impact of leadership changes and public sentiment towards foreign policy. Azizi emphasizes the challenges Iran faces, including a lack of reliable allies and the potential for further escalation in its conflict with Israel and the United States.

--

Timestamps:

• 00:01 - Intro
• 00:28 - Iran's Strategic Position
• 07:04 - Iran's Asymmetric Deterrence Strategy
• 38:31 - Iran's Internal Politics and External Strategy
• 48:10 - Conclusion and Reflections on Iran's Future

--

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob welcomes Emre Dogru back on to the podcast to discuss Turkey’s view of the violence happening in the Middle East. Emre takes a break from eating baklava to explain why he thinks the violence spiraling out of control is unlikely at this point – but he and Jacob explore scenarios for escalation that could prove this view wrong. Jacob will be appearing in a video on Emre’s channel next week on the concept of intelligence failures and lessons to learn for executives – we’ll be sure to share it with you when it comes out.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:41) – Turkey’s view of the war

(09:54) – Turkey and Iran: Frenemies 4 lyfe

(12:20) - Turkey in a regional war

(16:45) – Turkey, energy, Saudi Arabia

(19:23) - Prospects for regional war

(26:49) – Turkey-China

(28:25) – What if the conflict spills?

--

Referenced in the Show:

--

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob welcomes Eugene Chausovsky, former Stratfor alum and now Senior Director at Newlines Institute, to discuss all things post-soviet: wtf is going on in the Western Balkans, prospects for Ukraine’s inclusion in the EU, whether Azerbaijan will stop at Nagorno-Karabakh, and the many intersecting interests of Central Asia. From there they discuss China and what lessons China may have learned from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine re: Taiwan. They also make a global plea for more Georgian food, plz and thx.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:14) – Serbia/Kosovo

(06:08) - Ukraine/Russia

(19:07) – The South Caucasus

(31:36) – Central Asia

(41:05) - end – China

--

Referenced in the Show:

--

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

On today's Intrigue Outloud, Ethan is joined by Intrigue co-founder John Fowler and Jacob Shapiro, Partner and Director of Geopolitical Analysis at Cognitive Investments, to break down the latest from the conflict in Israel and Gaza, and to consider what the fighting tells us about the state of the world order. Thanks to our sponsor, Millennium Space Systems.

--

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob and Rob join forces to catch you up on all the important geopolitical and market developments that the Israel-Palestine war has obscured. They tackle carnage in the U.S. bond market and some very worrying developments in the Chinese economy. From there, they briefly explore gold as an investment opportunity as well as the profile of a good emerging market investment, before closing with thoughts on energy markets.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:02) – U.S. Treasuries

(11:14) - Government spending increases... an issue??

(14:15) – China’s treadmill to hell

(20:45) - What is recapitalization?

(24:00) - China's banking consolidation

(25:46) - Can China use ForEx to wipe out their liabilities?

(28:00) - Gold

(34:34) - Emerging markets -> Chile

(38:55) - Emerging markets -> Turkey

(45:45) - Emerging markets -> Argentina

(47:00) – Oil and natural gas

--

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob welcomes Kamran Bokhari back to the podcast to discuss the Israeli-Palestinian war. They explore regional considerations, Iran’s role and motive behind supporting Hamas, and consider scenarios for what could happen next.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:05) - Hamas' tradecraft

(11:42) - Iran and the West Bank

(19:00) - How does this affect the image of Hamas and Iran?

(28:17) - What is next for Iran?

(34:55) - Does Israel go after Hezbollah?

(40:40) - Joe Biden's next steps

(45:44) - Where is Turkey in all of this?

(51:00) - Egypt's role in this crisis

(55:51) - The Muslim world's take

--

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob welcomes Israeli geopolitical analyst Nitzan David Fuchs to offer an Israeli perspective on the terrible events of the past few days and the difficult weeks ahead.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(03:15) - Israel's intelligence failure

(08:15) - Israel/Hamas situation update

(10:20) – Hamas’s intentions

(17:08) - Is Iran behind this?

(22:12) - What are Israel's strategic goals?

(29:33) - How do hostages fit into the situation?

(36:00) - How long does Israel have to accomplish its goals?

(38:59) - How will this affect Israel's relationships with Arab neighbors?

--

Referenced in the Show:

Nitzan's Twitter: https://twitter.com/nitzandfux

Substack: https://nitzangreatgame.substack.com

Great Game Pod: https://greatgame.blog

--

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Cousin Marko is back at long last – he and Jacob discuss why U.S. elections are the most important thing in the world geopolitically and all the myriad ways a multipolar world is influencing the balance of power and investment decisions. They close with the best basketball analysis you’ll find anywhere in the U.S. YEAH WE SAID IT!

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:00) – U.S. Elections

(16:53) – Score settling in geopolitics

(31:35) – Europe x China relations

(43:47) – Ideologies under multipolarity

(50:45) - China and the U.S./investment implications

(1:00:25) – Over/Under

(1:06:54)-end – Basketball

--

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob is in the middle of Mississippi without his fancy microphone, but that doesn’t stop him from recording a reaction to the Hamas attack on Israel and Israel’s declaration of war in response. Jacob tries to compartmentalize the politics and emotion of the situation – a nearly impossible task – to explain what is going on at both a local and regional level and what this escalation in violence will mean.

--

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob and Rob are on the same continent for a change! They try to make sense of recent volatility in oil prices and take a victory lap on being ahead of the curve on the bloodbath in bond markets. From there, they explore the U.S.-Mexico-China love triangle and what history can and can’t teach us about the future of those three countries. Last but not least is Ukraine’s quest to become the Israel of Eastern Europe and whether Kyiv can produce weapons for itself in sufficient quality and quantity to maintain its counteroffensive against Russia.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:06) - Oil/Crude

(07:11) - Macro Context/Bond carnage

(16:47) - US x Mexico x China relations

(30:45) - Is the US reliving Chinese history with fentanyl

(40:50) - Migration and coordination

(45:00) - Ukraine wants to build its own weapons

--

Referenced in the Show:

The Third Opium War – https://www.cirsd.org/en/horizons/horizons-winter-2019-issue-no-13/the-third-opium-war

CRS backgrounder on U.S.-Mexico relations – https://sgp.fas.org/crs/row/R42917.pdf

--

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob Shapiro and Shaun Haney unpack the India-Canada diplomatic nightmare of the last few weeks and how the Ukraine/Russia war might end.

Link to RealAg Post: https://www.realagriculture.com/2023/09/frontlines-national-interests-vs-ideology-indian-separatism-and-western-support-for-ukraine/

--

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Referenced In The Show:

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob and Marko talk for a Joe-Rogan-amount of time – in this two-hour episode, they cover the Iranian threat to bomb Israel and what it does (and doesn’t) mean for the Middle East, whether China’s stimulus is real, and what’s next for the Russia-Ukraine war. They also explore Trump v Harris victory scenarios…and close out with the best NBA analysis money can buy.

--

Timestamps:

• 00:01 - Introductory Remarks
• 00:57 - Middle East Tensions: Iran and Israel
• 01:27 - Reassessing Israel's Strategic Goals
• 02:29 - The Impact of Iranian Retaliation
• 03:59 - Market Implications: Oil and Equities
• 34:04 - China's Economic Stimulus: A Policy Shift?
• 01:13:18 - Trump vs. Harris: Election Scenarios
• 01:17:32 - The Future of Russia-Ukraine Conflict
• 01:35:26 - NBA Preview and Predictions
• 01:47:45 - Closing Thoughts and Outro

--

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob and Rob dive into some key macro developments – and why they confirm some of CI’s contrarian investment theses. From there, they discuss recent problems in the European Union and Mitsubishi Motor’s decision to leave China, before doing a rapid-fire set of topics to close the podcast. 

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:20) - Macro Overview

(19:20) – EU problems 

(25:20) - No optimism in EU

(36:06) – Japan automakers leave China

(40:15) - 4 interesting events

--

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob welcomes Daniel Stelter to the podcast to begin his research process into the future of the German economy with a sober conversation with an expert who thinks Germany is a long-term short. Dr. Stelter's take differs greatly from the one we take at CI, and we really enjoyed hearing his perspective on the future of Germany.

Dr. Stelter is the founder of the German Discussion Forum Beyond the Obvious (www.think-beyondtheobvious.com), focusing on strategic and macroeconomic issues. He has written several books, mostly in German.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(05:00) - Why are you pessimistic about Germany?

(06:04) - Germany's demographic problems

(09:35) – Germany’s education problems

(14:00) - Germany's energy problems

(19:39) - Why is Germany failing in education?

(25:00) - Why pessimist about German demographic trends ?

(37:00) - “Deindustrialization” and other fairy tales

(44:49) - How bad will things get?

(53:33) - How to fix Germany?

(57:16) - A few thoughts on the future of the EU

--

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

Jacob Website: https://jacobshapiro.com

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Referenced In The Show:

www.think-beyondtheobvious.com

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob continues to fight through a cold to bring you the geopolitical content you know and love. His weekly chat with Rob starts off with Brazil – and why an interest rate cut in Brazil should matter a big deal from an investment point of view. From there, they touch on the top developments of the week in the South Caucasus and Ukraine before philosophizing on Canada-India relations.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:20) - Snot

(02:02) - Brazil cut interest rates

(11:11) - Brazil/US real estate liquidity

(16:37) - Interest rates, commodities, manufacturing in China

(22:51) - Nagorno-Karabakh

(30:18) - How weak is Russia? What's next?

(33:05) - Why should I care about Nagorno-Karabakh?

(38:44) - Ukrainian Worries

(46:00) - India and Canada

--

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Referenced In The Show:

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob and Rob reunite to discuss developments in geopolitics and markets. They talk about environmental policies and their discontents, explore the hysteria on German deindustrialization, and offer a few thoughts on China’s recent tech resilience.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:24) –German Industrialization

(06:00) - The backlash against Green Politics

(22:17) - German Industrialization 2.0

(39:28) - China’s tech resilience

--

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob welcomes Dr. Robert Funk onto the podcast to discuss how Chile has changed over the last 50 years, and more importantly how it will change over the next 10. They briefly explore the legacy of the coup against Allende before exploring why Chile has always been a little bit different than the rest of Latin America…and whether Chile can avoid being caught between great power competition in the years ahead.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:27) - The legacy of the Allende coup

(08:33) - Chile's development

(12:35) - Chile’s constitutional process

(15:50) - Another social explosion?

(18:00) - Is Chile a good investment?

(22:50) - Why does Chile have strong institutions?

(27:00) - Chile’s global position (energy, trade, politics)

(31:42) - China's attractiveness to Chile

(34:20) - Chile’s regional geopolitics

(39:30) – Chile’s future

(42:00) - Ideological and political choices

(43:50) - Will Chileans ever feel like the coup was justified?

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Links:

Dr Funk’s article: https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/fifty-years-later-he-haunts-us-still/

Christopher Hitchens article: https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v24/n13/christopher-hitchens/11-september-1973

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob welcomes Ryan Bohl back onto the podcast to discuss their respective deep-dive reports into Turkey’s geopolitics. They go back and forth about whether Istanbul or Anatolia is Turkey’s core before taking a very macro view at Turkey’s foreign relations and the risks/opportunities ahead for the Turkish state.

Ryan’s report: https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/modern-geopolitics-turkey

Jacob’s report is only available for CI clients. Email jacob@cognitive.investments to discuss access.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:35) – Istanbul v Ankara

(06:35) - Turkey's Economy

(14:00) - Turkish Coalitions

(17:10) - Turkey and Russia

(22:27) – Turkey and NATO

(27:30) - Turkey and China

(30:35) - Erdogan's Policy

(32:15) - Turkey and the Middle East

(38:00) - Predictions

--

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Referenced In The Show:

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob welcomes Professor Stephen Nagy onto the podcast to talk about Japan’s internal contradictions, its influential foreign policy, and the role Japan will play in protecting its cherished “free and open Indo-Pacific.” They even spend a few minutes talking about Canada (you’re welcome, Canada!)

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(03:00) - Migration

(06:36) - Changes in Japan's countryside

(10:15) - Stagnation in Japan

(15:43) - Japanese/Chinese relations

(21:50) - South China Sea

(28:42) - Chinese military vs. Japanese military

(32:40) - Japan and the Korean Peninsula

(38:40) - North Korea

(42:11) - Japan and India/Southeast Asia

(46:30) - Canada

--

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Referenced In The Show:

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob and Rob take a step back from the day-to-day grind of the news flow to talk about how they think about information more broadly. They take a philosophical dive into the challenges of our current media environment, parsing through their own participation in the phenomenon and how they filter out the noise. They finish with some best practices on information gathering.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:32) - How to think about information

(13:15) - The challenges of information overload

(19:11) - Participating in the media environment

(24:50) - Healthy skepticism

(26:30) - Journalism

(33:00) - Information gathering tactics

(39:00) - The human brain, aging, and information

(48:00) - The refraction of old models

(52:40) - The value of being a contrarian

--

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Referenced In The Show:

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob welcomes back Elohim Monard to the podcast – who brings with him fellow Latin America expert Igancio Asis. They discuss the momentous political events in Guatemala, Argentina, and Ecuador over the past week and set the stage for deeper conversations in the future about the role of criminal enterprises in Latin American politics, whether Argentina can ever really change, and the future of China in the region, among other things.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(03:00) – Guatemalan Elections

(14:44) – Argentinian Elections

(40:40) – Ecuador

--

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Referenced In The Show:

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob fires up the hot-take machine to confront the news about Prigozhin’s death head on, before doing a brief tour of the world to give listeners a “global sitrep” before he heads out on vacation. 

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(00:55) – Prigozhin

(08:06) – BRICS

(12:00) – India

(14:52) – Ethiopia

(15:52) – Guatemala 

--

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Referenced In The Show:

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Elo returns to the podcast to give his thoughts about Alberto Fujimori, Peru’s former dictator President. He was Bukele before there was Bukele, Milei before there was Milei, even Chavez before there was Chavez. His rise and fall tells us so much about the history of Latin American geopolitics – and points to a melancholic not-so-shining path forward.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:14) - Who was Fujimori

(09:37) – Japan and Peru

(14:12) – The Rise of Fujimori

(28:33) – Vladimiro Montesinos

(35:45) – Post-Fujimori

(40:06)- Fujimori Legacy

(49:45) – Thank you but you’re a f’ing dictator.

--

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob Shapiro welcomes Myles Stapelberg, a member of CI’s Innovation Advisory Board, back onto the podcast to discuss the news about the “discovery” of a room temperature, ambient pressure superconductor. From there, the pivot to developments in nuclear fusion over the past 6 months and some of the challenges and opportunities in the fusion space – a subject bereft with lofty promises, sensationalism…but also real progress.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(03:32) - What is a superconductor?

(12:00) - What is LK99?

(14:40) - Fake superconductor claims

(19:00) - Is LK99 significant?

(22:30) - Prospects for a usable room temp superconductor

(25:45) - New developments in fusion 22:03

(30:00) - Diving into fusion technology

(36:33) - Helion x Microsoft partnership

(44:40) - Will we see fusion reactors within our lifetime?

(53:00) - Which country is developing fusion the fastest?

(57:25) - Can we stop using fossil fuels altogether?

--

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Referenced In The Show:

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob takes to the mic alone to update you on the latest geopolitical developments in the world while Rob, Cousin Marko, and seemingly everyone else in the world is on vacation. Must be nice!

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:51) – Argentinian Primary Elections

(03:36) – Panama Canal

(04:40) – Ethiopia and Nigeria

(08:48) – Nagorno-Karabakh

(09:39) – Wheat

(12:29) – China

(16:00) – Germany

--

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Referenced In The Show:

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob is featured on RealAg Radio with Shaun Haney! They'll dig into China’s economic and social standing and what Russia might do next. You’ll also hear from Joyce Parslow, with Canada Beef, on new culture, lifestyle, health and wellness information programs launched for Canadian beef AND a spotlight interview with Tom Barrie of Koch Ag Services on comparing nitrogen stabilizers.

Check out RealAg Radio here: https://www.realagriculture.com/category/realag-radio/

--

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Referenced In The Show:

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Chase pinch hits for Rob in CI’s weekly update with Jacob. Chase offers a sober take on inflation, before Jacob and Chase explain their bullishness on natural gas and energy in general for the rest of the year. They close with an examination of Japan’s recent moves – and explore how deglobalization is affecting both Japan and China in tandem.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(01:20) - Inflation

(10:08) - Jerome's Take

(15:05) - Chinese Deflation

(20:00) - Higher Commodities

(22:30) - Natural Gas

(33:50) - Coal

(42:00) - Cannabis

(43:40) - Telecom and 5G

(45:16) - Japan Update

(56:13) - China and Japan's Relationship

(01:00:30) - China's Economy

--

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Referenced In The Show:

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Sim Tack rejoins the podcast to pick up where he and Jacob left off a month ago: about the deteriorating security situation in the Sahel. Sim and Jacob discuss the nitty-gritty of the security situation and how it raises disturbing opportunities for radicalized jihadist voices in the region. From there, they wax philosophical about whether Africa is facing a new era of colonialism and how to approach the broader challenges facing the region, before closing with some brief thoughts on Russia and Ukraine.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(02:00) – Military intervention in Niger

(05:00) - If there is an intervention in Niger- who?

(09:00) - Regional Interests and jihadist opportunities

(12:00) - Realistic interventions

(18:00) - How do you contextualize this in the larger Saheli context?

(25:30) - Does this matter for the world?

(31:40) - What are Russia and China thinking?

(35:20) - Neocolonialism 2.0

(41:46) - Chinese Interests

(47:25) - Should we intervene in Niger?

(55:00 - Russia-Ukraine Update

--

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Referenced In The Show:

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Paul Melly joins the podcast for the first time to offer some much-needed insightful analysis on the developing political situation inside of Niger and the Sahel in general. Jacob and Paul discuss the coup itself and why it looks like the junta is here to stay. They discuss the myriad external actors – France, the U.S., Nigeria, ECOWAS, China, Russia, the EU and Algeria, to name just a few – and how they are thinking about the situation. Paul closes with his best guess on what happens next.

Saheli Map - https://cdn.britannica.com/44/241344-050-084F77EE/Locator-map-Sahel.jpg

WSJ Article - https://washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/08/03/mohamed-bazoum-coup-niger-democracy/

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:40) - Paul's background

(09:00) - Niger Coup Recap

(20:00) - How stable is the region or new regime?

(29:08) - External actor interest

(44:00) - What happens next?

--

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Referenced In The Show:

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob welcomes Matt Pines back onto the podcast to follow through on his promise to have a serious and rigorous conversation about unidentified aerial phenomena (UAPs). Matt and Jacob briefly address U.S.-China relations before addressing the controversial recent Congressional hearings about UAPs and exploring the political developments around UAPs and non-human, extraterrestrial life. Matt is a management consultant at Krebs Stamos and is appearing on the podcast in a strictly personal capacity.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:26) - U.S.-China cyber relations

(09:26) - Is the US actively targeting China via cyber attacks?

(12:30) – Politics of aliens

(18:26) - Plausible Deniability?

(30:10) - Why is there US bipartisan support for alien investigations?

(36:40) – Do aliens exist?

(49:19) – What does it mean if they do?

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CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Referenced In The Show:

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob and Rob are back at it for a weekly chat. They discuss disturbing news out of China that supports Rob’s pessimism in recent months and cuts against some of Jacob’s more optimistic thoughts. From there, they check in on Brazil and its interest rate cut and what the media is getting wrong about that, before closing with some thoughts on Argentina, Turkey, India, and a rapid fire discussion of important points that are not getting enough attention.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(01:21) - Disturbing News out of China

(06:13) - Chinese Rocket Force

(09:22) - Chinese stimulus

(13:17) - China's power base

(20:00) - Entrepreneurship in China

(24:04) - Brazil's Central Bank cut rates

(29:55) - Is there any hope for Argentina's economy?

(33:55) - Turkish Monetary Policy

(40:27) - Turkey is under Gulf influence

(43:11) - Does India want to get close to the West?

(48:30) - Room temperature superconductors?

(49:09) - West African Security

--

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Referenced In The Show:

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob welcomes back Tomás Villalón Jr onto the Cognitive Dissidents Podcast. They deliver insights on what elements are truly rare (you’ll have to listen to the podcast to find out which!), why China has such a dominant position in gallium and germanium, and tackle the mania over lithium…before turning a little philosophical and laying out the challenges facing particularly democratic governments in increasing production of critical minerals in the years to come.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:00) - What elements are ACTUALLY rare?

(11:00) - Can gallium mining be profitable in the US?

(14:44) - Chinese rare earth export controls (Gallium & Germanium)

(16:44) - Is Lithium just a current boom/bust cycle?

(21:45) - When will the US start approving more domestic mines? Does Democracy gum up our ability to mine freely?

(24:15) - Is China on the cutting edge of mining technology? Can the US catch up?

(27:35) - What are the ramifications of multipolarity on mining?

(31:00) - Is cutting dependence on China all talk? What will disruption look like?

(35:10) - Will PGM controls stall US technological progress?

(37:15) - Vertical integrations of mines into companies (think Tesla)

(38:20) - Semiconductors are beginning to vertically integrate

--

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Referenced In The Show:

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob Shapiro is rejoined by Daryl Ritchison for a reality check on the importance of El Nino in the larger atmospheric setting. They discuss whether weather (see what I did there?) is actually getting worse relative to historical averages and preview what the forecast ahead looks like for North America and Europe.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:00) - Is the weather actually getting worse?

(07:16) - North American weather predictions

(14:00) - Weather expectations for the rest of 2023

(22:00) – What is El Niño and Niña?

(26:30) - Are we transitioning into El Niño?

(27:50) - How long to El Niño's last?

(31:12) - Long-term ramifications of El Nino

(35:50) - Larger weather trends?

(40:00) - 10 year forecast

(51:00) - Preventing another Dust Bowl

(53:00) - Europe forecast

(58:00) - Will Europe be warmer and wetter?

--

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob and Rob dive into the microgeopolitics of Los Angeles before focusing on the big macro news of the week: Chinese economic stimulus. They give the bull and bear case for China’s moves to stimulate the economy. Also, the geopolitics of noodles.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:00) - Microgeopolitics of LA

28:00 – Ports, France, and Brazil

30:00 – China

--

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob and Rob catch up on Rob’s trip to Ireland this week and why it might presage new migration issues in Europe. From there they turn to the narrative about electric vehicles and why they are not the glittering solution they are made out to be, before diving deep into the U.S.-China relationship and checking on where China is on the treadmill to hell. Closing thoughts on wheat and natural gas.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:15) - Ireland Check-In

(09:40) - Migration Flows and the European Union

(18:01) - Brazil's EV Transition

(31:12) - China and EV's

(36:46) - China's Future

(44:11) - Consumption is the key to recovery in China?

(47:20) - China and US relations thawing?

(56:00) - Wheat and LNG

--

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Referenced In The Show:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-07-19/why-brazil-is-falling-behind-in-the-electric-car-transition

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob offers some thoughts on Russia’s decision to withdraw from the Black Sea Grain Initiative and analysis on Russia’s threats to bomb ships headed for Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea. This collapse affects developing countries He closes with possible scenarios going forward and explains what this means for wheat prices and other grains.

We will post our regular Weekly Update with Rob on Saturday, 7/22!

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(00:34) - Black Sea Grain Deal Collapse Summary

(04:10) - Who does this affect?

(07:30) - Sunflower oil importers

(10:33) - Putin's twisted logic

(12:12) - Turkey's role in the Black Sea Grain Initiative

(14:50) - What happens next?

(19:59) - Most likely scenarios

--

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob and Rob briefly analyze the latest inflation data from the U.S. before exploring major geopolitical news (Turkey’s about face on Sweden’s membership in NATO + Ukraine’s future in NATO) and economic news (Brazil’s tax reform). They close with a discussion about a potential emerging trend in health, brought to you courtesy of developments in Rio school cafeterias, and a warning about what the week ahead will bring for Peru.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:00) - Inflation

(05:00) - What's the Fed's next move?

(10:00) - Are we nearing the end of the inflation crisis?

(14:06) - Germanium and Gallium

(16:30) - Geopolitics

(17:20) - Why is Erdogan doing such an about face in Turkey?

(33:49) - Brazil's Tax Reforms

(40:00) - Brazilian Hotdogs and AI

(47:44) - Quality of food

(51:35) - Peruvian Unrest

--

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Referenced In The Show:

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Sim Tack rejoins the podcast to discuss current developments in Ukraine’s counteroffensive. He and Jacob discuss theories on wtf is happening in Russia before spending the second half of the podcast, as promised, on Africa – specifically, on political instability in the Sahel, how Russia is building networks of political relationships in Africa…and the impact on the rest of the continent.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:30) - Ukraine's semi-successful counteroffensive

(05:50) - Defining success for Ukraine

(07:20) - Russian readiness and analysis

(08:50) - Can Ukraine get the weapons that they need?

(12:50) - Let's talk about cluster munitions

(16:50) - What weapons class will Ukraine get next?

(19:38) - What happened with Yevgeny Prigozhin's failed coup?

(25:11) - Was the coup planned??

(26:11) - Russian military morale

(30:00) - Why should we care about what's going on in the African Sahel?

(33:32) - When did the Sahel begin to deteriorate?

(38:40) - The threads that connect West Africa

(49:30) - Wagner/Putin's African interests

(55:30) - Is the rest of Africa in danger of the Sahel's deterioration?

--

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

No guests this week – Jacob takes a step back to talk about the most important geopolitical development of the week, China’s decision to impose export controls on gallium and germanium exports, before teasing a new In-Focus piece on natural gas for Knowledge Platform subscribers. 

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:00) - China is restricting mineral exports

(12:21) - Natural gas teaser

--

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Rob and Jacob talk about why U.S. economic data continues to surprise to the upside and what it portends for the stock market. From there, they have a wide-ranging, very macro conversation about artificial intelligence and how geopolitics might help identify winners and losers from the coming tech revolution. They close with a few thoughts about protests in France.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:05) - Catching Up

(04:32) - Telling Stories with Data

(14:40) - Getting Meta

(17:20) - US Restricting AI Chips, Cloud Space to China

(28:00) - AI Infrastructure

(36:10) - Foreboding Developments in AI and Chinese Innovation

(43:00) - The Rise of the City-State?

(44:48) - Geopolitics within nations

(53:30) - Protests in France

--

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Referenced In The Show:

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Peter Mayer rejoins the podcast to discuss the recent deal between California, Nevada, and Arizona to reduce their water usage from the Colorado River. The deal is underwhelming – but Peter still has hope the states will find a more sustainable future in 2026 and beyond, though either way farmers in this part of the country face serious headwinds.

Part 1: https://cognitive-investments.captivate.fm/episode/water-we-waiting-for

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(03:00) - Colorado River

(10:30) - Is there a chance of improvement?

(14:20) - How do we fix this?

(17:07) - Geopolitics of water amongst US states

(19:54) - Can States realistically make cuts to their water usage?

(23:37) - Arizona vs. California

(25:09) - Legal issues with water

(29:00) - Possible scenarios with water rights

(30:55) - The next 10 years of water war negotiations

(33:49) - What's stopping desalination efforts?

(42:15) - Where do we go from here?

--

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob welcomes Chase Taylor, the wizard behind Pinecone Macro Research, back to the podcast to discuss why he thinks a U.S. recession is near (and what indicators to watch for). From there, they explore Japan (bullish!), Nigeria (mixed!) and natural gas (bullish).

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(01:42) - Chase predicts a recession

(12:18) - Financial security and the gender gap

(15:30) - Macro credit

(18:20) - Futures in a recession

(21:00) - Signals and signs

(26:00) - Bullish on Japan

(29:00) - Japanese demographics

(34:00) - The World's Worst Yen Trader

(37:50) - China's role in Japanese markets

(41:05) - Chinese demand-side stimulus

(44:44) – Nigeria's Future

(50:00) - Nigerian Politics

(53:47) - Natural gas

(01:04:00) - Sports :)

--

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Referenced In The Show:

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob and Cousin Marko try to make sense of what just happened in Russia over the last 36 hours…and what is going to happen next. They tackle the timeline of events with Prigozhen marching up towards Moscow and engaging Russian Military troops, then move into breaking down some of the more grounded conspiracy theories floating around out there. Jacob and Marko both agree that this is the end of Russia as we know it, and will usher in a new era of instability for the region (compounded with the Ukranian invasion). They then move onto the market implications, the Ukraine counteroffensive, tactical nuke scenarios, China, and then finally Basketball.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:03) - WTF is going on in Russia?

(09:00) - The end of Russia (No REALLY)

(12:30) - Putting conspiracy theories to rest

(18:23) - Internal strife

(25:14) – What happens next in Russia?

(31:56) - Market Movements

(40:06) – Ukraine Implications

(52:41) – Dam Explosion/Tactical Nukes

(59:36) - China

(1:04:18) – NBA talk and key takeaways

--

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob Shapiro hops on the mic for an emergency episode to discuss WTF is happening in Russia. Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner mercenary group, has claimed the city Rostov-on-Don in the south of Russia. He is currently marching along a highway towards Moscow and there are reports of fighting between Russian Military and Wagner forces. Putin has responded by naming the movement as an armed rebellion.

This episode was recorded at 9am Central Time, we will continue to keep you updated!

--

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Referenced In The Show:

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob welcomes PauloMacro onto the podcast to discuss his macro view, oil, grains, emerging markets… and why the time might have finally come for Brazil.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:22) - Paulo’s view

(13:05) – US elections

(19:32) – Oil

(33:08)– China

(41:20) – Grains

(51:10) – Brazil

--

Referenced in the Show:

Link to Paulo’s Substack: https://substack.com/@paulomacro

--

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Rob is back from vacation and here to provide insights on the UK’s surprising inflation print and why CI believes inflation could be more stubborn than U.S. markets presume. From there, they discuss the latest developments in the Chinese economy – still the most important issue in the world, Titanic submarine developments notwithstanding – before discussing the auto industry and their shared skepticism on the rise of EVs. 

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(01:36) - UK inflation

(06:15) - US inflation

(14:56) - The role of energy volatility in Inflation

(16:30) - The value of liquidity

(21:13) - Energy companies

(22:30) - Multipolarity, inflation, and China

(27:00) - Xi Jinping vs. local government

(31:54) - The automotive industry

(40:13) - EV's + state-run capitalism

(44:30) - What's in a market?

--

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Referenced In The Show:

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob welcomes Enrique Fonseca onto the podcast for the first time to discuss Spain’s upcoming elections. Enrique Fonseca takes a more conservative approach to politics than Jacob, although they both acknowledge their biases and continue to talk through their disagreements. They spar over the role ideology plays in modern politics and about the extent to which the Spanish left’s emphasis on identity politics has hurt its electoral chances.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:09) – Economy is good, but polls are bad?

(16:24) – Who is Podemos/the Spanish left?

(30:06) – History of Podemos

(32:04) - The radicalization of politics in Spain

(36:21) - Radicalization of politics globally

(42:30) - Liberalization of Spain

(55:20)– What happens next?

--

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Referenced In The Show:

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob is joined by Reuben Steff to offer a fresh perspective on New Zealand’s geopolitics. They trace the history of New Zealand-U.S. relations, explore New Zealand’s trade dependence on China, share some thoughts on whether or not New Zealand will join AUKUS, and close on Jacinda Ardern’s legacy.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(03:20) - Why does NZ care about the rest of the world?

(08:27) - Brief history of NZ foreign policy

(14:18) - NZ Security Policy

(23:10) - US/China Detente

(26:04) - The South Pacific

(34:20) - Resources of the South Pacific

(35:33) - Indonesia

(38:30) - AUKUS

(47:30) - Jacinda’s Legacy

--

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

--

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Referenced In The Show:

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.