In the first episode of The Horn’s new season, Alan is joined by Crisis Group’s senior Eastern Africa analyst Omar Mahmood to discuss the escalating regional tensions involving Somalia, Egypt and Ethiopia, the uncertain future of the stabilisation mission ATMIS, which supports Mogadishu in its fight against Al-Shabaab and the presence of the Islamic State in Somalia. They unpack the worsening relations between Mogadishu and Addis Ababa over Ethiopia’s bid for sea access through Somaliland and the diplomatic efforts under way to defuse the tensions. They discuss Somalia’s new defence pact with Egypt and its regional implications. They talk about a possible follow-on mission to ATMIS, which is set to end by December this year, Ethiopia’s military presence in Somalia and Egypt’s increasing security assistance to the country amid regional rivalries. They also discuss the growing significance of the Somali branch of the Islamic State for the group’s global operations, recent developments in Mogadishu’s fight against Al-Shabaab and whether more diplomacy could help to improve relations between Somalia and its neighbours. 

For more on the topics discussed in this episode check out our recent briefing, The Islamic State in Somalia: Responding to an Evolving Threat and our Somalia country page.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan talks with writer and political analyst Nanjala Nyabola about the wave of nationwide protests that have swept through Kenya in recent weeks and prospects for the country and the region. They unpack the political and economic factors driving discontent among young people in Kenya, the makeup of the demonstrators and social media’s role in galvanising the protests. They discuss what options Kenya’s President William Ruto has to address the country’s economic woes and its spiralling debt crisis. They also talk about whether demonstrations might spread to other African countries facing structural challenges similar to Kenya’s and what lessons can be learned from how protest movements have played out in Sudan and elsewhere in the region.

For more, check out Nanjala’s article in The Guardian The world is scrambling to understand Kenya’s historic protests – this is what too many are missing, her book Digital Democracy, Analogue Politics: How the Internet Era is Transforming Politics in Kenya and our recent Q&A What is Behind Kenya’s Protest Movement?

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan talks to Diego Da Rin, Crisis Group’s Haiti expert, and Murithi Mutiga, Crisis Group’s Africa Director, about the latest surge in gang violence in Haiti, which has put the state on the brink of collapse, and the potential of an international mission led by Kenya to restore security. They talk about the deep crisis in Haiti and why gangs in the country are trying to overthrow Prime Minister Ariel Henry’s government. They talk about Henry’s visit to Kenya, what’s behind Nairobi’s decision to lead an international mission to Haiti and why it has faced opposition in Kenya’s courts. They assess the political risks involved for Nairobi in sending police forces to Haiti and how gangs in the country might react to such a deployment. They also discuss fast-moving events, whether Henry is now stranded abroad, and whether a foreign deployment still looks feasible.

For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our briefing Haiti’s Gangs: Can a Foreign Mission Break Their Stranglehold? and our Haiti country page

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Sudan’s 31 August peace deal between the government and an alliance of rebel groups from Darfur, South Kordofan, and Blue Nile was welcomed with enthusiasm by the international community. But in the Jebel Marra mountains of Darfur, controlled by a faction of the Sudanese Liberation Movement (SLM), a rebel group that refused to sign the agreement, it was met with raised eyebrows.

In early 2020, Vice News correspondent Julia Steers became the first foreign journalist to set foot in the Jebel Marra in five years. She witnessed first-hand why mistrust toward the government flies high in this remote area traumatised by seventeen years of war, even after former President Omar al-Bashir’s ousting in 2019.

Steers explains how the rebels want justice for the crimes committed in Darfur and a significant improvement of the situation on the ground, where gunshots ring out daily and humanitarian services are absent. High on their list of concerns is also the fact that the process that led to the August agreement involves a general they consider as one of the masterminds of the genocide committed against them.

Elsewhere in Darfur, Steers notes, challenges standing in the way of peace also abound. One obstacle is a surge in what the United Nations calls “tribal clashes”, where civilians displaced by the conflict are attacked in and outside the camps they live in.

Explore our Sudan page to learn more about Crisis Group’s analysis on the country: https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-africa/sudan

To watch Vice News’ feature “Inside the Forgotten War in Darfur, Where the Killing Never Stopped”: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_NlgaXrMTc4

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To mark the first episode of season two of The Horn, Alan talks with Crisis Group’s Africa Program Director Comfort Ero about how the politics of conflict and peacemaking have changed — and not changed — across the African continent during the decade that she has led the organisation’s work on Africa.

She highlights that although headlines may be dominated by topics such as “jihadist threat” and “violent extremism”, the key causes of conflict remain the same, namely corruption, instrumentalisation of ethnicity, and marginalisation of certain communities. 

They discuss power struggles in the Horn of Africa as America’s primacy wanes, the African Union’s more assertive role in peace and security, and how African leaders should manage their relationships with China to strengthen conflict resolution on the continent, not repressive authoritarian regimes. They also explore the benefits and risks of talking about African solutions to African problems, and the need to take into account the crucial national interests that can drive a state to try to shape the future of a neighboring country. 

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In our second re-run of the Summer, Alan is joined by Rashid Abdi to discuss the legal battle Kenya and Somalia are fighting over their shared maritime border.

Somalia’s President Mohammed Abdullahi "Farmajo" has taken a more assertive stance to demonstrate the country’s strength and appeal to his support base. Kenya views itself as a powerful country in a turbulent region and doesn’t wish to be seen caving into pressure.

Rashid and Alan seek insights about why the dispute flared up, Ethiopia’s changing role under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, and how mediation efforts have achieved some positive, modest success in de-escalating tensions.

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During our season break, we will be re-running two early podcasts from our first season that new subscribers might have missed. We will be back in September with some brand new episodes. 

Digital technologies are having a dramatic impact on politics. But while their influence in Western political spaces has been heavily scrutinized, little attention has been paid in Africa. Best-selling Kenyan author Nanjala Nyabola joins Alan Boswell on The Horn this week. They discuss everything from digital colonialism and the exploitation of technology by state powers to the power of social media, for better or for worse.

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Somalia's political crisis has reached a worrying stage. Since his election in 2017, President Farmajo has pushed to strengthen the federal government's control, fuelling infighting between the government and member states. The decision to postpone upcoming elections has inflamed these already deteriorating relations. 

Meanwhile, Al-Shabaab continues to inflict violence and will likely benefit from this political disarray, and external actors compete for influence, using the country as a playground for their own interests.

Crisis Group's Senior Analyst for Somalia Omar Mahmood joins Alan for the final episode of this season to discuss these worrying trends and the need for a consensus agreement over the electoral process. They also examine the skirmishes in Jubaland's Gedo region and their impact on wider regional dynamics.

Thank you for joining us for this first season of the Horn. We would love to hear from you so if you have a few minutes to spare, please fill out this short survey: https://bit.ly/HornSurvey

We will be back in September. Until then, stay safe! 

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As rains swell the Blue Nile, Ethiopia has made clear its intent to soon start filling the massive dam it is building. However, it has yet to reach an agreement with its two downstream neighbours, Sudan, and Egypt.

Trilateral talks resumed in early June, and while most elements have been agreed upon, two key issues remain unresolved: drought mitigation and dispute resolution. The gap to reach an agreement is closing fast.

William Davison, Crisis Group's Senior Analyst for Ethiopia, returns to The Horn once more to unpack the complex dynamics at play. He and Alan discuss negotiations, technical issues, and the parties' various concerns. He stresses that all three need to compromise if they hope to reach a deal, lest tensions rise further.

For more information, read our statement: Nile Dam Talks: A Short Window to Embrace Compromise

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The "age-old story of the rise and fall of great powers", already in motion, has been accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic.

So says Abdul Mohammed, chief of staff and senior political advisor for the African Union High-Level Implementation Panel. Amid waning U.S. influence, the steady rise of China, and a new era of competition between the two, he asks, where does Africa fit in?

The continent has undergone a dynamic transformation over the past twenty years. In the absence of robust, long-term U.S. engagement, China has emerged as the continent's most important economic partner. Meanwhile, the U.S. is now primarily focused on sidelining China in Africa rather than providing the transformative engagement needed.

With the continent now caught between these two opposing geopolitical forces, just like the rest of the world, Abdul argues that Africans cannot afford to be passive. They will need to "play a weak hand well" by positioning themselves as relevant actors, both in managing the current pandemic and in contributing to the shaping of a future global order.

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Africa’s priority in fighting COVID-19 is to find the right “balance between saving lives and saving livelihoods”, based on the experience of what happened in Europe, the United States, and China, says Dr. John Nkengasong, Director of Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC), the African Union body coordinating the response to the pandemic on the continent.

The wave of COVID-19 infections that many predicted would cruelly expose Africa’s weak health systems has not materialized on the continent thanks to early lockdown measures, lessons learnt from the Ebola and HIV crises, and strong leadership and coordination on a continental level.

But Africa is not out of the woods yet, and as European countries start easing lockdowns, Africa needs to redouble its efforts if it wants to avoid a massive spread of the disease.

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Africa has been hit with a double punch. The economic fallout of COVID-19 has preceded the health crisis, resulting in job losses and endangering food supplies. The pandemic's impact on the region's tumultuous political transitions could be grave. 

The international community has moved surprisingly quickly in response to the pandemic, but is it enough? EU Special Representative to the Horn of Africa Alexander Rondos explains that greater regional cooperation is needed to address the potential consequences wrought by the crisis. Only by working more closely together can they develop an effective strategy for pandemic relief.

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“Africa is one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change across the world, and yet is the least responsible”.

Climate change is a threat multiplier. Its ability to disrupt livelihoods, change migration patterns, and complicate political imbalances make it an increasingly significant driver of conflict. 

David Mozersky, co-founder of Energy Peace Partners and a former Crisis Group project director for the region, is Alan’s guest this week. They examine the conflict in Darfur, UN climate goals, and the international community’s carbon footprint.

For more information, see our President and CEO Robert Malley talking to the UN Security Council: https://www.facebook.com/watch/live/?v=791719564689357&ref=watch_permalink

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan speaks with Liesl Louw-Vaudran, Crisis Group’s senior advisor to the AU, about the highlights of the 2024 AU Summit, the continental body’s priorities for the year ahead and whether the annual summit moved the needle on addressing many of the continent’s major crises and conflicts. They break down the main files discussed at this year’s summit, particularly the worsening security crisis in eastern Congo, rising tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia over sea access and the string of coups in West Africa. They also discuss the AU’s lacklustre response to the war in Sudan and whether the body can take a more tangible role in resolving the conflict in the year ahead. They examine the AU’s push for a larger role on the global stage and deepening fault lines between AU members and Western countries, including over the war in Gaza. They also discuss the election of a new AU chair and the upcoming race for a new chair of the AU Commission. They also discuss whether African leaders think the AU is suffering an institutional crisis. 

For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our briefing Eight Priorities for the African Union in 2024 and our African Union & Regional Bodies page.

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“COVID-19 is not just an epidemic, but a highly complex emergency”. 

The implications of the coronavirus pandemic are still unclear. But the looming global recession and direct impact of containment measures on livelihoods make this an unprecedented crisis for Africa. Furthermore, the U.S., once an important ally in times of health crises, has turned its back on the continent, especially after President Trump’s “reckless” decision to terminate funding for the World Health Organization. Worst-hit countries are now faced with the prospect of major food shortages, political fragility, and major economic dislocation. 

Alex de Waal, an expert on the continent who has written extensively on the effects of pandemics on political power, joins Alan this week to discuss the international system’s ability to respond to the new crisis in Africa and the value of community-led strategies to help blunt the impact.

Articles on COVID-19:
New Pathogen, Old Politics (Boston Review)
COVID-19 in Africa: “Know your Epidemic, Act on its Politics." (African Arguments)Governance Implications of Epidemic Disease in Africa: Updating the Agenda for COVID-19

Books discussed: AIDS and Power: Why there is no Political Crisis - Yet
The Real Politics of the Horn of Africa
Mass Starvation: The History and Future of Famine

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The death and disruption wrought by the coronavirus pandemic have already been felt by much of the world. With the disease now making its way across East Africa, Alan Boswell sat down with journalist April Zhu to discuss the challenges the region faces.

Overstretched healthcare systems, the consequences of a global economic depression on stability, and the long-term geopolitical implications of China’s growing engagement are all covered in this first episode of a special COVID-19 series on The Horn.

For more information, see our recent briefing on the possible political effects of the contagion: COVID-19 and Conflict: Seven Trends to Watch.

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Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan are struggling to reach agreement over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.

Ethiopia, which sees the dam as a defining national development project, is ready to start filling it; Sudan, a historic ally of Egypt, covets the cheap electricity and expanded agricultural production that it promises; while Egypt remains deeply concerned about the impact it could have on the Nile’s water flow.

Harry Verhoeven, a leading academic expert on the issue, joins Alan this week to discuss the current impasse. They examine the technical issues, the politicization of the dam, understandings of security and power, the role of the U.S. Treasury, and what the dam could contribute toward poverty reduction, environmental sustainability and agricultural productivity in the Nile Basin.

For more information, see our Commentary, Calming the Choppy Nile Dam Talks and our report, Bridging the Gap in the Nile Waters Dispute

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On 22 February, South Sudan's two warring leaders, Salva Kiir and Riek Machar agreed once again to form a unity government. After several failed attempts to make peace, this deal is more important than ever. In this episode, we flip the script by bringing Crisis Group's Africa Program Director, Comfort Ero, into the studio to interview host Alan Boswell. Alan, who is Crisis Group's senior analyst in South Sudan, has just returned from field research there. In this episode Comfort and Alan discuss how we got to this point, what the unity government needs to succeed and what may hold it back, again.

Read our statement for more information: https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-africa/south-sudan/major-step-toward-ending-south-sudans-civil-war

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Sudan’s transition hangs in the balance. 

As the country embarks on its journey to inclusive, democratic rule, one of the most pressing issues it faces is the flailing economy. The civilian-led administration inherits a legacy of decades of ruinous economic policies, exacerbated by crippling U.S. sanctions. Crisis Group has long called on the U.S. to rescind its outdated designation of Sudan as a State Sponsor of Terrorism (SST), which would be an important first step in supporting economic reform. 

Cameron Hudson, Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, joins Alan this week to shed light on the nature of U.S. sanctions, the factors obstructing the lifting of the SST, the role of the international community and the challenges for Prime Minister Hamdok. 

For more information, see Cameron’s Foreign Policy article:

https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/09/25/the-united-states-should-lift-sanctions-on-sudan/

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Ethiopia’s elections, scheduled for August, are set to be the first free and fair elections since 2005. But myriad challenges lie ahead, warns Will Davison, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Ethiopia and Alan’s guest on The Horn this week.

When Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power, he immediately marked himself as a departure from the country’s authoritarian past. He has opened up the country’s politics, embarked on a historic rapprochement with Eritrea, released more political prisoners and invited home exiled dissidents. 

However, efforts to dismantle the country’s old order have sparked a debate between supporters and opponents of the country’s ethnic federalist system. Hostility among different regions has soared, ethno-nationalism is on the rise and intercommunal clashes have displaced millions. Concerns abound that intensified political competition around elections could further destabilise the state. 

Tune in to hear all about the complex dynamics at play.

For more information, see our report Keeping Ethiopia’s Transition on the Rails.

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From Sudan’s fragile transition and Ethiopia's internal tensions to a resilient Al-Shabaab insurgency in Somalia and beyond, 2020 is set to be an important year in the Horn of Africa.

Murithi Mutiga, Crisis Group’s Project Director for the region, joins Alan to discuss the conflicts and crises dominating the headlines and the ones evading them, from the Kenya-Somalia maritime dispute to the dramatic deterioration of Tanzania’s political environment. 

Special thanks to our producer, Maeve Frances. 

For more information, check out our website: https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-africa

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The Al-Shabaab insurgency remains a potent force in Somalia. One understudied source of its resilience is the support it enjoys among Somali women, despite the group’s patriarchal ethos, strict gender ideology and brutal methods. 

Azadeh Moaveni, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Gender, joins Alan to discuss women’s roles within the movement, from intelligence gathering, to fundraising, to arms carrying and to recruitment. 

For more information, see our briefing: Women and Al-Shabaab’s Insurgency

Special thanks to our producer, Maeve Frances. 

Originally published on 28 June 2019. 

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Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on The Horn from Crisis Group's Global Podcast Hold Your Fire!.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Africa Director Murithi Mutiga to discuss Horn of Africa politics, including Ethiopia’s push for sea access, Sudan’s war, Kenya’s regional role and Gulf rivalries playing out in the region. They talk about a recently announced deal between Ethiopia and Somaliland, the breakaway northern region of Somalia, that would see Ethiopia lease part of the Somaliland coast reportedly in exchange for Ethiopia’s recognition of Somaliland’s statehood. They discuss the reaction in Somalia, which rejects Somaliland independence, and whether anti-Ethiopian sentiment could strengthen Islamist militant group Al-Shabaab. They also talk about growing hostility between Ethiopia and Eritrea. They discuss increasing foreign involvement in Sudan’s war and the former paramilitary Rapid Support Forces’ advances. They touch on the regional role that Kenyan President William Ruto appears to aspire to and the evolving influence of Western powers, especially the U.S., in the Horn.

For more on the topics discussed in this episode, visit our Horn of Africa regional page.

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Kenya and Somalia are currently fighting a legal battle over their shared maritime border, an area rich in oil and gas. 

Somalia’s President Mohammed Abdullahi "Farmajo" is playing hardball. With national elections approaching, he has taken a more assertive stance to demonstrate the country’s strength and appeal to his support base. Kenya views itself as a powerful country in a turbulent region and doesn’t wish to be seen caving into pressure.

Rashid Abdi, Consultant and former Horn of Africa Director at Crisis Group, joins Alan this week to shed light on the deeply complex issue. They seek insights about why the dispute flared up, Ethiopia’s changing role under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and how mediation efforts have achieved some positive, modest success in de-escalating tensions. 

Special thanks to our producer, Maeve Frances. 

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After five years of violent conflict, South Sudan’s main warring leaders, President Salva Kiir and his chief rival Riek Machar, signed a 2018 peace deal. The agreement established a ceasefire and set out a political roadmap toward elections in 2022, which included the formation of a unity government. But the peace deal is imperiled and with it the fragile ceasefire. Emmily Koiti, a civil society activist who participated in the peace talks, joins Alan this week to discuss why she thinks the main parties will fail to form a functioning unity government, the principle issues obstructing progress and why the country’s current leaders do not represent the aspirations of the South Sudanese. 

For more information, see our briefing:  Déjà Vu: Preventing Another Collapse in South Sudan. 

With special thanks to our producer, Maeve Frances.

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President Trump hoped that minimal engagement would bring big wins in the Horn of Africa: more U.S. trade & investment and seeing off his great power competitors. In practice, multiple surprises have forced U.S. policy into a mode of serial reaction. How are these priorities and realities truly different from those of his predecessors? And how has he dealt with themes that rarely feature in his usual doctrines, issues like governance, peace and security? Judd Devermont joins Alan Boswell to discuss all this on The Horn. 

Judd Devermont is the Director of the Africa Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and was a senior official at the National Intelligence Council under the Obama Administration.

With thanks to our producer, Maeve Frances. 

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Omar Mahmood, Crisis Group's Senior Analyst for Eastern Africa, to discuss the fallout of the Ethiopia-Somaliland Memorandum of Understanding for Somalia and the region. They talk about Hargeisa’s motivations for the port deal with Addis Ababa and Mogadishu’s response. They look at what deteriorating relations between Ethiopia and Somalia could mean for the offensive against Al Shabaab as well as regional stability generally. They examine the flurry of diplomacy by Somalia aimed at rallying opposition to the deal. They also discuss whether Ethiopia could make a pitch for greater sea access that would benefit both Somalia and Somaliland.

For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Horn of Africa regional page.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Christopher Clapham, Ethiopia expert and professor emeritus at the University of Cambridge. They unpack the context of Ethiopia’s major new quest for sea access, the regional tensions created by this public demand, and the tidal waves from the recent Memorandum of Understanding between Ethiopia and Somaliland that is fiercely opposed by Somalia and others. They also discuss the dire internal situation inside Ethiopia and whether the proliferating crises inside the country could continue to escalate. They also discuss the historic and current involvement of external actors in the region, including Gulf states.

For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our briefing Ethiopia’s Ominous New War in Amhara and our Ethiopia country page. 

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In this Special Episode of The Horn, we are bringing you a panel discussion on Sudan moderated by Crisis Group’s President and CEO, Comfort Ero, at the 2023 Doha Forum. Comfort is joined by U.S. Special Envoy for The Horn of Africa Mike Hammer, UN Special Envoy for The Horn of Africa Hanna Tetteh, founding director of the Sudan-focused think tank Confluence Advisory, Kholood Khair and Crisis Group’s Africa director Murithi Mutiga. They assess the latest diplomatic push to try and get a ceasefire in Sudan, ways to better coordinate mediation efforts and the difficult task of bringing the warring parties in Sudan to the negotiating table. They discuss the investments needed to better protect civilians in Sudan and the state of civilian efforts to unify against the war. They also highlight how a prolonged war in Sudan risks further destabilising an already fragile region.

Find the link to the video recording of the full panel here.

For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Horn of Africa page, our Sudan page.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan hosts a roundtable discussion with Alexander Rondos, a former diplomat and a senior advisor at the U.S. Institute of Peace, Kholood Khair, founding director of Confluence Advisory, a Sudan-focused think tank, and Abdul Mohammed, who has served in senior positions for the United Nations and the African Union, to discuss the state of diplomacy in the Horn of Africa. They talk about the war in Sudan and the risk of conflicts and crises proliferating in the Horn, absent coherent diplomatic initiatives. They discuss the rising competition among regional and international powers to head diplomacy in Sudan and elsewhere, as well as the diminished role of the U.S. They also look at how the increasing strategic importance of the Red Sea is fuelling tensions between regional powers.

This episode of The Horn is produced in partnership with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung.

For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Horn of Africa page and our Sudan page.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan hosts a roundtable discussion with Saliem Fakir, executive director of the African Climate Foundation, Robert Muthami, a member of Kenya’s delegation to previous COPs, and Nazanine Moshiri, Crisis Group’s senior analyst for Climate, Environment and Conflict in Africa to talk about Africa’s role at this year’s COP28 climate summit in Dubai. They discuss Africa’s negotiating position and priorities at this year’s climate summit, including climate financing. They look at the importance for African negotiators to speak with one voice. They explain why this year’s focus on peace and conflict is new for COP and important for African countries. 

This episode of The Horn is produced in partnership with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung.

For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our COP28: A Special Series page and our Climate, Environment and Conflict page.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Michael Woldemariam, associate professor at the University of Maryland's School of Public Policy, to discuss the landscape in Ethiopia one year after the peace deal in Tigray. They explore how relations between Addis Ababa and Tigrayan leaders have evolved since the signing of a peace deal in Pretoria last year and the many challenges Tigray still faces today. They discuss how Abiy's wartime alliance with Eritrea and the Amhara elite broke down, leading to a new war in the Amhara region and rising tensions with Ethiopia. They also look at whether Addis Ababa’s recent bid for access to the Red Sea could raise the risks of a regional escalation.

For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our briefing Ethiopia's Ominous New War in Amhara and our Ethiopia country page.

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Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on Sudan from Crisis Group's Global Podcast Hold Your Fire!.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Alan Boswell and Shewit Woldemichael to talk about the latest developments in Sudan’s civil war, where fighting between the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) has been raging for almost seven months. They talk about the recent advances by the RSF in Darfur, where the Sudanese army has been largely routed, and what the recent gains mean for the war’s trajectory. They talk about the RSF’s motives in fighting and what its leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, or Hemedti, hopes to gain from the war. They discuss the army’s weakness and increasing reliance on Islamist forces formerly associated with long-serving ruler Omar al-Bashir. They also examine the dearth of serious diplomacy aimed at ending the war. 

For more analysis on the war in Sudan, check out our Sudan page.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan talks with Alex de Waal, a leading scholar on famines as well as on Sudan and the executive director of the World Peace Foundation, to talk about the worsening humanitarian catastrophe in Sudan as the war between Sudan's Armed Forces and the paramilitary RSF is driving millions to starvation. They assess the scale of the hunger crisis in Sudan and how close the country is to full-blown famine. They talk about the factors driving starvation in the country and how the belligerents are using hunger as a weapon of war. They also discuss how aid access throughout the country can be restored, whether outside actors, including the U.S. and the UN, can mount a large-scale emergency response and what can be done to improve the regional and international efforts to resolve the conflict.

For more on the topics discussed in this episode, you can read Alex’s article in Foreign Affairs Sudan’s Manmade Famine, our briefing Halting the Catastrophic Battle for Sudan’s El Fasher and our Sudan country page.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan talks to Omar Mahmood, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Eastern Africa, and Sarah Harrison, Crisis Group’s Senior U.S. Analyst, about Somalia’s offensive against Al-Shabaab and the U.S. strategy toward the country. Alan and Omar update listeners on the stalling offensive, supported by clan militias and the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS). They also discuss the postponed withdrawal of ATMIS soldiers and whether the Somali government will be able to take over from the African Union forces by the end of 2024. Alan and Sarah evaluate successive U.S. administrations' approaches to Somalia as part of the Global War on Terrorism. They discuss how the Biden administration decided to send U.S. troops back to Somalia despite Biden's pledge to end the country's forever wars and whether U.S. strategy remains fit for purpose. Omar also discusses how Somalis view U.S. support. 

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 

For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our report Out of the Box: How to Rebalance U.S. Somalia Policy, our briefing Sustaining Gains in Somalia’s Offensive against Al-Shabaab and our Somalia country page.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan talks to Dr Suliman Baldo, Executive Director of the Sudan Transparency and Policy Tracker, about the dire state of Sudan six months into the war between Sudan’s armed forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and whether Sudan has already collapsed. They assess the current military dynamics across the country and the internal dynamics within both the RSF and the Sudanese armed forces, as well as why there has been no serious progress towards a ceasefire. They talk about how both parties’ mobilisation of different ethnic groups amplifies further social tensions among the population. They also discuss the involvement of outside actors in the conflict and why existing peace efforts have failed to make any meaningful progress.

For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Sudan country page.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan hosts a roundtable discussion with Dr Solomon Ayele Dersso, founder of Amani Africa, Paul-Simon Handy of the Institute for Security Studies, and Crisis Group expert Liesl Louw-Vaudran to discuss the state of peace and security in Africa. They assess the African Union’s response to the recent string of coups in West Africa and whether it still has the ability to deter military takeovers. They also talk about how the conflict in Sudan has tested the AU’s peace and security architecture and how competition between the AU and different regional bodies has hampered mediation efforts. Finally, they discuss what shape peacekeeping in Africa might take in the future and whether regional initiatives can fill the vacuum left by the departure of UN missions.

This episode of The Horn is produced in partnership with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung.

For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Q&A What Future for UN Peacekeeping in Africa after Mali Shutters Its Mission?, our previous podcast episodes on the with Liesl and Solomon and our Africa program page.

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In this first episode of The Horn’s new season, Alan Boswell talks with Annette Weber, EU special representative for the Horn of Africa, to discuss diplomacy and peacemaking in the region. They talk at length about the conflict in Sudan, the trajectory of regional and international mediation efforts, the prospects for serious ceasefire negotiations and the best ways of including civilians in a peace process. They assess whether anything can be done to improve the situation in Darfur even as national ceasefire talks falter. They also take a look at other developments in the Horn, from the unrest in Ethiopia to the region's approach to Eritrea, as well as the renewed negotiations over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and the future of efforts to counter Al-Shabaab. They also discuss the growing role of Arab Gulf powers in the Horn and the changing nature of diplomacy in the region. 

For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Horn of Africa regional page. 

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From 22-24 August, leaders of the BRICS countries, the economic grouping of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, will meet in Johannesburg for their annual summit. The meeting is highly anticipated as it comes at a point of growing polarisation and uncertainty on the international stage. In this rapidly changing global order, some see BRICS becoming a political counterweight to the West, but internal divides and divergent goals among the group on topics like UN reform suggest that it is far from united.

This week on The Horn, Alan Boswell is joined by Sanusha Naidu, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for Global Dialogue, to discuss what to expect at the upcoming BRICS Summit. They unpack the origins of the alliance and how its goals have shifted in recent years. They talk about whether BRICS is moving from a group of emergent economies to a political bloc in opposition to the West. They also discuss how the war in Ukraine has changed dynamics within BRICS, and South Africa’s relationship with Russia, which has come under increased scrutiny. They also talk about what’s next for BRICS and where the group might look next for potential expansion. 

For more in-depth analysis on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our pages on Africa and Multilateral Diplomacy pages.

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Sudan’s famed resistance committees arose in their present form during Sudan's 2019 revolution and then spearheaded the country's resistance to military rule over the subsequent years. With the outbreak of war in April between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, these groups are scrambling to aid Sudanese caught in the war yet also face an uncertain and challenging future. Many of their members have fled for safety abroad, and those who remain face dangers on many fronts, including from the warring parties and the dire humanitarian situation. 

This week on The Horn, Alan is joined by Maryam Elfaki, long and active member of the resistance committee in Sudan's northern sister city Bahri, about what is next for the revolutionary networks in the country now that they find themselves caught inside Sudan's terrible new war. They talk about the origins, structures, and internal dynamics of the resistance committees, their efforts to forge a collective political roadmap, whether anyone in Sudan can claim political legitimacy, how they view other political actors in the country, and whether resistance committees can play a direct role in any future peace talks or political process. They also talk about how resistance committees have transformed themselves into Sudan's humanitarian first responders and aim to provide the vanished services of Sudan's collapsed state. 

For more in-depth analysis on the conflict in Sudan, check out our Sudan country page.

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Since the outbreak of the war in Sudan, the West Darfur region has seen a dramatic resurgence in violence. While the RSF and the Sudanese army have focused their war effort on the capital Khartoum, fighting has erupted between Arab and non-Arab militias and paramilitary groups in West Darfur. Reports of mass atrocities and displacement share unsettling similarities to the brutal war that devastated Darfur 20 years ago. With the main conflict actors in Sudan being seemingly no closer to a peace deal after more than two months of fighting, the violence seems unlikely to subside. 

This week on The Horn, Alan Boswell speaks with Jerome Tubiana, writer, researcher, and a former Sudan analyst for Crisis Group, about the escalating violence in West Darfur. They discuss the history of conflict in Darfur, factors that played into escalating tensions on the eve of Sudan's new war, and how the outbreak of conflict in April has led to a rapid deterioration of stability in the region. They highlight the brutal tactics of armed groups in the region and the devastating toll that has taken on civilians. They talk about the actors involved and how the RSF and the Sudanese army view the conflict in Darfur. They also address if the fighting in Darfur might spread further in the region and into Chad and why peace in Khartoum might not be enough to end the violence in Sudan’s peripheries. 

For more in-depth analysis on the conflict in Sudan, check out our latest briefing “A Race against Time to Halt Sudan’s Collapse” and our Sudan country page. 

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The conflict in Sudan between the country’s armed forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has been a major source of concern for its northern neighbour Egypt. Cairo, a backer of Sudan's army, now faces both a humanitarian crisis that is spilling over into its borders and an increasingly challenging geopolitical landscape with Sudan, an ally since the fall of Omar al-Bashir in 2019, descending into chaos.

This week on The Horn, Alan talks with Michael Hanna, Crisis Group’s U.S. Program director, about Egypt’s role in the war in Sudan. They look at the historical ties between the two countries, current political dynamics, and Egypt's response to the 2019 popular uprising and political transition in Sudan. They discuss what is behind Cairo’s support for the Sudanese armed forces and how it positioned itself toward the current conflict in Sudan. They also discuss Cairo's views of U.S.-led diplomacy and the role of Gulf powers Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in Sudan and the Horn of Africa more generally. They also talk about the long-running dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and how the war in Sudan might affect Cairo’s diplomacy in the region more broadly.

For more in-depth analysis on the topics discussed in this episodes, check out our Sudan and Egypt country pages.

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The fighting between the Sudanese armed forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces has taken a grave toll on civilians throughout the country. Hundreds of thousands have fled Sudan and those staying behind in urban areas are facing severe shortages of basic necessities. On 22 May, the conflict parties negotiated yet another ceasefire in their talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. But since every previous ceasefire has been broken, hope is faint that this one will hold.

This week on The Horn, Alan interviews Reem Abbas, a non-resident fellow at the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy and a Sudanese activist and researcher, to discuss her first-hand encounter with the fighting in Khartoum and her arduous journey out of Sudan to Egypt. They discuss what life is now like in Khartoum, the systematic destruction of the city, the exodus of the Sudanese elite and the long-term implications for the country. They also talk about how the two parties are faring militarily, why the fighting might not end soon and how civilian actors should organise themselves. 

For more in-depth analysis on the situation in Sudan, check out our Sudan country page.

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The fighting between the Sudanese armed forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has continued for almost a month as a string of ceasefires keep breaking down. This week, representatives of Sudan's warring factions are meeting in Jeddah for Saudi-U.S.-brokered talks aimed at ending the conflict that has collapsed Sudan’s capital Khartoum, left hundreds dead, and triggered a huge humanitarian crisis and a mass exodus.

This week on The Horn, Alan speaks with Jerome Tubiana, Crisis Group’s former senior Sudan analyst, to unpack the roots of the conflict, the rise of the RSF and their leader Mohamed “Hemedti” Hamdan Dagalo, and their rivalry with Sudan’s armed forces. They take a closer look at the development of the RSF under former President Omar al-Bashir, and how they and Hemedti became a powerful force in Sudanese politics. They also talk about the ongoing conflict, who is supporting the armed forces and the RSF, and if the fighting could spread further in Sudan and beyond its borders. Finally, they discuss where the conflict might be headed, what a resolution could look like,  and what that might mean for the future of the RSF and Sudan.

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 

For more in-depth analysis on the situation in Sudan, check out Crisis Group's latest statement Stopping Sudan’s Descent into Full-Blown Civil War, our Sudan country page and Jerome’s article in The Baffler Land of Thirst. 

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan talks with Edmund Yakani, executive director of the Community Empowerment for Progress Organization, about South Sudan’s widening fiscal crisis, with the war in neighbouring Sudan cutting the government off from vital oil revenue, and what that could mean for the country’s political future. They unpack why elections, originally scheduled for later this year, are likely to be postponed again as the country struggles to build up a functioning voting infrastructure. They talk about mediation efforts under way in Kenya between the government and exiled opposition groups, the motivations of the participants and whether the talks can lead to a substantive agreement. They also assess whether South Sudan is headed for wider political turmoil as the government’s main source of revenue remains disrupted.

For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our statement South Sudan on Edge as Its Neighbour’s War Disrupts Oil Exports, last year’s episode with Edmund It’s Time to Start Talking About Elections in South Sudan and our South Sudan country page.

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