The Hinrich Foundation Trade Podcast – Détails, épisodes et analyse

In this special edition of the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast on global trade, the Association of Foreign Press Correspondents-USA sits down with Mariko Watanabe, Professor with the Faculty of Economics at Gakushuin University, to examine how China’s pursuit of industrial scale has driven manufacturing dominance while fueling systemic overcapacity and mounting tensions in the global trading system. 

China’s manufacturing dominance — now accounting for more than 30% of global output — reflects four decades of industrial strategy, state planning, and coordinated investment that have built one of the world’s most integrated production ecosystems. Yet the same system, anchored in the government’s Catalogue of Industrial Guidance, has also encouraged waves of investment into favored sectors regardless of market demand. This has fueled persistent overcapacity in industries ranging from steel and solar panels to electric vehicles and batteries, contributing to falling prices, global trade frictions, and what some economists describe as “immiserizing growth,” where expanding output depresses prices to the point that export earnings remain modest. As geopolitical rivalry with the United States intensifies, China increasingly treats industrial scale as a strategic asset, reinforcing a cycle of capacity expansion that risks deepening supply-chain fragmentation and destabilizing global markets.  

Watanabe argues that addressing these pressures will require both domestic rebalancing toward consumption in China and stronger international cooperation — including more effective trade rules, safeguards, and coordinated action among middle powers — to prevent the gains from industrial scale from concentrating in a single economy. 

 Tune in to this podcast as Mariko Watanabe, Professor with the Faculty of Economics at Gakushuin University, joins the Association of Foreign Press Correspondents-USA to assess how China’s catalog-based industrial policy has driven remarkable manufacturing growth while generating structural distortions at home and growing frictions abroad. The podcast follows up on Watanabe’s recent article for the Hinrich Foundation, “China’s industrial policy a recipe for overcapacity.” 

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In this special edition of the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast on global trade, the Association of Foreign Press Correspondents-USA sits down with Stewart Paterson, Senior Research Fellow at the Hinrich Foundation, to unpack China’s rare earth monopoly and strategies taken by the West to break its dominance.  

China’s control over rare earth minerals stems less from geology than from decades of industrial strategy, subsidies, lax environmental standards, and dominance over processing and refining. Recent export controls have exposed Western vulnerabilities, many rooted in offshoring and the loss of industrial ecosystems needed for advanced technologies. While the United States, the European Union, and allies have begun responding through legislation, investment, and initiatives such as the Minerals Security Partnership, diversification will take at least a decade and cannot be achieved through one-off interventions. Paterson emphasized that rare earths are only one example of broader hidden dependencies, warning that true economic security requires coordinated, cross-border industrial and trade strategies grounded in geopolitical alignment rather than isolated national solutions.

Tune into this podcast as Stewart Paterson, Senior Research Fellow at the Hinrich Foundation, joins the Association of Foreign Press Correspondents-USA to break down how China built its rare earths monopoly and what it means for global economic security and supply-chain resilience. The podcast follows up on Paterson’s recent paper for the Hinrich Foundation, “Lessons from how China played its rare earth card.”

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After a long dormant period, industrial policy is back and dramatically reshaping global manufacturing. As large-scale subsidies proliferate, countries that used to take a laissez-faire approach to market governance have entered a race to subsidize strategic sectors. Companies are responding.

Tune in here for an experimental 'podcast' on Kieran Thompson's 'Fighting subsidies with subsidies' article, created with Google's AI research assistant NotebookLM.

 Tune into the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast series for insights on international trade.   

In this special edition of Current Accounts, the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast on global trade, the US Association of Foreign Press Correspondents sits down with Keith Rockwell, Senior Research Fellow at the Hinrich Foundation, to discuss the future of Europe’s trade dynamics in light of its shifting political landscape.

While the recent elections in Europe have not yet led to significant shifts in its trade and business landscape, the steady rise of far-right parties is setting the stage for future upheavals. These political movements challenge the very foundation of the European Union’s (EU) single market, which is built on free movement and multilateral cooperation. The Hinrich Foundation’s recent research examines how the surge in nationalism is driving new divisions within Europe, potentially undermining the region’s commitment to open borders and international trade. As these parties strengthen their foothold, their push for protectionist policies could reshape the flow of talent and capital, affecting not just trade but also the broader integration of European economies.

Some right-wing factions, especially in countries like France and Germany, are adopting pro-business approaches, tempering their traditionally anti-trade rhetoric to appeal to a broader electorate. However, this shift may be more tactical than permanent, as the underlying nationalist and protectionist ideals remain deeply embedded in these movements. The growing influence of such ideologies across Europe raises questions about the long-term stability of trade and economic policies within the EU.

Tune into this special episode as Keith Rockwell, Senior Research Fellow at the Hinrich Foundation, discusses the rising influence of far-right parties across Europe and its potential impact on the region’s trade policies, immigration, and the core principles of the EU.

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In this special edition of Current Accounts, the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast on global trade, the US Association of Foreign Press Correspondents interviews Deborah Elms on the WTO’s landmark e-commerce agreement.

In July, The Joint Statement Initiative (JSI) on Electronic Commerce achieved a historic milestone in global trade, as 82 World Trade Organization (WTO) members released a “stabilized text”, potentially setting the first digital trade rules. This is a significant development, addressing the WTO's previous lack of a digital trade framework and aiming to create unified, consistent regulations for e-commerce. This agreement, remarkably, was reached without the participation of United State, with major players like China and the European Union joining forces with smaller nations such as Benin and Laos.

The JSI's impact is particularly significant for developing countries, which face significant challenges due to regulatory fragmentation. By addressing these challenges, the JSI aims to foster a more equitable digital trade landscape worldwide. The initiative’s inclusive approach includes commitments for cooperation and development, helping them integrate into the global digital economy. The agreement also aims to facilitate trade for smaller firms by allowing electronic paperwork and signatures, simplifying cross-border transactions.

Despite the progress, achieving consensus at the WTO remains a challenge. Although 82 WTO members have endorsed the JSI’s text, some remain dissatisfied, complicating the integration of these rules into the broader WTO framework. Any dissenting member, including the US, can block progress, leaving the signatories to navigate these disagreements and determine the path forward.

Tune in to this special episode as Deborah Elms, Head of Trade Policy at the Hinrich Foundation, dissects the WTO's historic e-commerce agreement and its potential impact on the future of digital trade.   

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In this special edition of Current Accounts, the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast on global trade, Patrícia Vasconcellos from the US Association of Foreign Press Correspondents and Robert York, Director of Regional Affairs at the think tank Pacific Forum, delve into how shifting oil trade dynamics are fueling global fragmentation.

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the West imposed stringent sanctions on Russia to cripple its oil exports and economy. Despite these efforts, Russian oil shipments have remained resilient, mainly due to new buyers entering the market.

Russia has surpassed Saudi Arabia as the primary oil supplier to China. This shift in the global oil markets, driven by falling oil prices and Western sanctions, has significantly influenced global trade dynamics. While the European Union’s reduced dependence on Russian oil is seen as a positive outcome, the increase in oil imports by India pose a challenge, as the US is concerned about strengthening trade ties between India and Russia.

In response to Western economic pressures, Russia has strategically increased its oil exports to Africa and Asia. This move highlights the need for the US to bolster its diplomatic efforts in the Global South to counterbalance the influence of Russia and China. Furthermore, the environmental risks associated with oil transportation, particularly through poorly maintained "shadow tankers," pose substantial threats of oil spills and ecological damage.

These insights were highlighted in the Association of Foreign Press Correspondents’ interview with Robert York, Director of Regional Affairs at Hawaii-based think tank Pacific Forum.

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In this special edition of Current Accounts, the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast on global trade, Patrícia Vasconcellos from the US Association of Foreign Press Correspondents interviews Hinrich Foundation Research Grant recipient Rodrigo Fagundes Cezar about the impact of unilateral green rules and voluntary standards on Brazil’s green transition.

Amid efforts to promote sustainability through trade, import policies have taken centerstage. The European Union (EU), for example, has unilaterally launched the Renewable Energy Directive (RED) and the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) to help the single market achieve its ambitious climate goals by 2030. As a result, several countries have established or plan to adopt private standards and certifications, such as Brazil's sugar agency Bonsucro, to ensure compliance with these new regulations.

In Brazil, however, the results of adopting these voluntary standards have been mixed. While the country’s exports of sugar and ethanol to Europe have generally increased, these gains are often limited to municipalities with established trade ties with the EU. On the other hand, areas with fewer prior trade ties have seen declining exports. Furthermore, compliance with these standards may inadvertently lead to land concentration, favoring larger agricultural units and potentially exacerbating land inequality within Brazil.

This special episode delves into the findings of a report titled ‘Unilateral green rules and voluntary standards: A balancing act for Brazil’, commissioned under the Hinrich Foundation Research Grant, which supports up-and-coming academics. Rodrigo Cezar and his team analyze the impact of these voluntary standards on Brazil’s sugar and ethanol exports and land concentration. They also discuss the heterogeneous effect and history of trade across Brazilian municipalities. The research highlights the role of policymakers in developed nations can mitigate adverse spillover effects to achieve their sustainability goals.

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In this special edition of Current Accounts, the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast on global trade, Patrícia Vasconcellos from the US Association of Foreign Press Correspondents talks to Inu Manak, fellow for Trade Policy at the Council for Foreign Relations, discussing the role of US trade policy in current presidential election year.

Trade exerts a profound impact on our daily lives as it plays a pivotal role in shaping consumer choices, production processes, and overall economic resilience. The historical trajectory of US trade policy reveals a gradual shift towards protectionism, driven by factors such as the economic disruptions and the lack of effective worker adjustment programs. While the move towards protectionism predates the Trump administration, it is important to note that Trump’s intensification of protectionist sentiment is viewed more as a symptom than the cause.

Looking ahead to future trends, the anticipation looms over the continuation of the trade restrictions in US trade policy, regardless of the election outcome. The dynamic interplay between security concerns and trade decisions highlights the need for a balanced approach.

Moreover, a discernible gap exists between public perceptions, which generally acknowledges the positive aspects of trade, and political narratives that often carry a negative connotation. Bridging this gap necessitates engagement with everyday Americans to capture their perspectives on the global economy.

This episode dissects the evolving landscape of US trade policy during the ongoing presidential election year with guest Inu Manak, PhD in government and an expert in international political economy. Manak's insights offer a nuanced understanding of the intricacies shaping US trade policy, shedding light on the challenges and potential future trends.

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In this special edition of Current Accounts, the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast on global trade, Patrícia Vasconcellos from the US Association of Foreign Press Correspondents and Keith Rockwell, former WTO director and senior research fellow at the Hinrich Foundation delve into the evolving global trade patterns. 

There is a notable shift in global trade patterns, particularly in case of the US. This is a result of deliberate decoupling initiatives spanning two successive US administrations, marked by tariffs on Chinese imports. The US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, sometimes characterized as NAFTA 2.0, emerges as a pivotal factor, fostering enhanced trade relations among the US, Mexico, and Canada. Proximity and integrated economies, as well as the challenges in global shipping routes, contribute to Mexico's increasing competitiveness in supply chains, especially in areas like electric vehicle (EV) production.

The Biden administration's trade policy alignment with its predecessor reflects a prevailing skeptisim towards trade. Prioritizing industrial and environmental policies, the administration has achieved significant legislative milestones, including the infrastructure bill, semiconductor bill, and the Inflation Reduction Act. That said, the convergence of trade and environmental policies, particularly in the context of EV production and domestic manufacturing requirements, poses a challenge in realizing the government's multifaceted policy objectives.

Moreover, the ongoing conflicts, such as those in Ukraine and the Middle East, continue to have physical and economic repercussions to global trade. The uncertainty surrounding the upcoming WTO ministerial meeting's ability to forge comprehensive agreements is heightened by challenges ranging from agricultural disputes to disagreements on e-commerce and tariff issues. 

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In this special edition of Current Accounts, the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast on global trade, Alan Herrera of the Association of Foreign Press Correspondents in the United States (AFPC-USA) and Hinrich Foundation Head of Trade Policy Deborah Elms explore the complexities of decision-making within the World Trade Organization (WTO) as the 13th Ministerial Conference looms.

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Getting 166 diverse staff to agree on a single lunch order without a boss is a difficult exercise. This is, roughly, an analogy to the situation facing the WTO. Consensus-based decision making has become increasingly strenuous as membership grows and the agenda for managing global trade expands.

Over the years, the WTO and its predecessor the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade have tried to provide alternative pathways to getting to yes. Key among these are agreements between smaller subsets of members before they are offered organization wide. While recent experiences with the Joint Statement Initiatives puts forward some reason for optimism, the broadening scope of challenges facing the trade policy landscape is poised to underscore more questions than answers for the future of the multilateral trading system.

Tune in to this special episode of Current Accounts, based on our policy brief titled “The challenge of getting to yes at the WTO” authored by Hinrich Foundation Head of Trade policy Deborah Elms. 

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