The Democratic National Convention was a respite from Democrats' summer of despair, and a lot of the good vibes filtered down to swing voters...but are good vibes enough? Democratic pollster John Anzalone joins Sarah to listen to how the new ticket looks to swing voters...and even some former Trump voters who are now Harris-curious. 

The Bulwark is ON LOCATION at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, and we've got quite a lot to talk about! National Political Reporter Joe Perticone joins Sarah to recap the sights and sounds from the convention. They also walk through swing voters' reactions to the Harris-Walz ticket, and how plugged in they were to convention coverage generally (not very much).

Utah has been something of a bulwark (pun intended) against Trumpism, but even they haven't been immune to sliding into MAGA. And now, with Sen. Mitt Romney retiring, Republican voters are poised to pick a new U.S. senator there. The Atlantic's McKay Coppins joins Sarah to break down how Utah Republicans are different, and where they might go from here. They also discuss voters' assessments of Romney as he prepares to leave office.

One of the Republican Party's biggest long-term problems is that their base is demanding behavior that swing voters won't tolerate, and few things have brought out this gap better than Donald Trump's recent conviction. The Washington Post's Isaac Arnsdorf joins Sarah to discuss what the MAGA base expects out of politicians these days, and how swing voters are reacting.

show notes:
Isaac Arnsdorf's Book: Finish What We Started: The MAGA Movement’s Ground War to End Democracy

When Donald Trump's 34 felony convictions were handed down, we had focus groups ready to talk about them. PBS Newshour's Laura Barrón-López joins Sarah to listen to swing voters' reactions to Trump's conviction, and to the start of Hunter Biden's federal trial.

show notes
PBS Newshour: How Republican voters feel about Trump and the election after his conviction

We have five months to go until Election Day, and nobody's happy. So we're bringing you some catharsis. Jonathan V. Last joins Sarah to let out a primal scream and preview the home stretch of this presidential campaign through the lens of Trump '16/Biden '20 voters.

This show is sponsored by BetterHelp. Focus Group Podcast listeners can get 10% off their first month at BetterHelp.com/thefocusgroup

North Carolina Republicans have nominated a candidate for governor who might be crazier than all of the Republicans who ran in 2022. And that's saying something. POLITICO's Zach Montellaro joins Sarah to walk through Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson's political rise, and how his supporters and GOP detractors feel about him.

show notes:

• Zach Montellaro in POLITICO: The most important governor’s race of 2024 is about to have its own version of Trump
• Jessica Piper and Zach Montellaro in POLITICO: Trump’s weaknesses with GOP voters go beyond the suburbs

2024's college graduates started their college careers with COVID, and ended them with encampments on most of their campuses. Tim Miller joins Sarah to discuss how America's youth have dealt with a turbulent few years, how they view the recent protests on their campuses, and their thoughts on November's election.

One of Sarah's favorite Republicans, former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, is running for the U.S. Senate. So how are Sarah, and her fellow Maryland voters thinking about this race? Former Maryland Lt. Governor (and RNC chairman) Michael Steele joins Sarah to discuss how left-leaning Marylanders who've voted for Hogan before are thinking about his Senate bid, and his Democratic challengers.

Donald Trump said that Nikki Haley's supporters would be "permanently barred" from the MAGA camp...and he's keeping that promise in the general election. Bulwark MAGA-world correspondent Marc Caputo joins Sarah to listen to Nikki Haley's base...those that are abandoning Trump in the general election, and those that are sticking with him.

Abortion has become a defining feature of the 2024 election in Arizona, and Arizona women know it. Yvonne Wingett Sanchez, Arizona-based democracy reporter for the Washington Post, joins Sarah to walk through the implications of the Arizona Supreme Court re-instituting an 1864 ban on abortion in the state.

Editor's note: This show was taped before the Arizona House voted to repeal the ban on April 24.

show notes:
The Post's Inside the GOP reckoning over Arizona’s 1864 abortion ban

Voters have gotten long looks at both Donald Trump and Joe Biden representing America on the world stage, so what did swing voters see? Bill Kristol joins Sarah to talk about the foreign policy stakes of the 2024 election, and how voters think about the War in Ukraine and America's role in it. This show was recorded before Iran's April 13-14 attack on Israel.

JD Vance's evolution on Trump over the years has left voters wondering what he really believes. But our guest this week can shed some light on that. POLITICO's Ian Ward joins Sarah to discuss his reporting on JD Vance and the "new right" more broadly. They also discuss Ian's reporting from inside Project 2025, and the role it may play in a future Trump administration...regardless of what Trump says.

Show notes
By Ian Ward:

It Was Supposed to Be Trump’s Administration in Waiting. But Project 2025 Was a Mirage All Along.

Is There Something More Radical than MAGA? J.D. Vance Is Dreaming It.

JD Vance on Elizabeth Warren, Steve Bannon and What’s Wrong With the GOP

Are Republican Voters Ready for the Nerdy Radicalness of JD Vance?

The Seven Thinkers and Groups That Have Shaped JD Vance’s Unusual Worldview

Some voters in recent Democratic primaries have been upset with Joe Biden's handling of the Israel-Hamas war. Whether and how he can bring them back onside in November is an open question. Pod Save America co-host Tommy Vietor joins Sarah to break down a small but critical part of the Democratic coalition, why they're upset, and what it could mean in November.

Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. is shaking up the presidential race...and no one knows what his impact is going to be. So we talked to former Trump voters and former Biden voters who are giving Kennedy a look. Astead Herndon, host of the New York Times politics podcast The Run-Up joins Sarah to discuss his recent interview with Kennedy and how the voters are thinking about him.

Show Notes:
The Run-Up: Don't Ask RFK Jr. About Being a Spoiler

The House recently passed a bill that could lead to a ban on TikTok in the U.S. It made for strange bedfellows (Lauren Boebert voted for it, and President Biden would sign it). It takes a lot to get them to agree…but the voters we talked to didn’t get the memo. Bulwark White House correspondent Andrew Egger joins Sarah to break down a weird and important debate in Washington.

Sarah's trying to convince former Trump voters to abandon him in November, through a campaign called Republican Voters Against Trump. It's a tall order, but luckily she's done it before. The Bulwark's own Tim Miller, who was the political director of Republican Voters Against Trump in 2020, joins Sarah to discuss the theory behind RVAT and how anti-Trump forces can capitalize on recent good news for Biden.

show notes

• Republican Voters Against Trump
• October 2023 Focus Group Podcast with Amy Walter
• New York Times: Anti-Trump Group of Republicans Lays Out $50 Million Plan of Attack

The Republican primary for U.S. Senate in Ohio is heating up...unexpectedly. Cleveland-area businessman Bernie Moreno is on the ropes despite Trump's endorsement. And despite voters being mad about the Cleveland Guardians (née Indians) name change, a member of the ownership family is still in the ballgame (pun intended). NBC News senior political reporter and Ohio native Henry Gomez joins Sarah to break down this primary and preview what will be one of November's biggest Senate races.

Donald Trump is polling better with Black voters than he used to, so we fielded a focus group of Black voters who are warming up to him...after not voting for him in 2016 or 2020. Ashley Allison, former Biden-Harris campaign official and CNN commentator, joins Sarah to discuss why some Black voters are souring on the Democratic Party.

California's U.S. Senate race is a battle royal for small-dollar Democratic donors, between Reps. Adam Schiff and Katie Porter...but they're both boosting certain Republican candidates to gain an advantage in this race. California also has a governor who's scheming to run for president in 2028. Pod Save America's Jon Favreau joins Sarah to discuss California's present Democratic stars and their futures on the national stage.

show notes:
Pod Save America
Offline with Jon Favreau
The Wilderness

Nikki Haley is in YOLO mode as she faces down a loss in her home state of South Carolina, but her years-long tortured Trump two-step has caught up to her. The Atlantic's Tim Alberta joins Sarah to discuss his reporting on Haley through the years and ask a simple question: is this FINALLY her last straw with Trump?

show notes

By Tim Alberta:

Nikki Haley's Time for Choosing

The Kingdom, the Power, and the Glory: American Evangelicals in an Age of Extremism

American Carnage: On the Front Lines of the Republican Civil War and the Rise of President Trump

Trump appears to be in the driver's seat to return to the White House. We could really use more two-time Trump voters who don't want to vote for him again. Fortunately, we found a group just like that! Jonathan V. Last joins Sarah to listen to two-time Trump voters who think "life's too short" for the anger of the Trump years, and to break down what else they do...and do not...think about the threat of Trump.

We're bringing you an update on the Republicans in Congress. We taped this BEFORE Republicans failed to impeach DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, failed to pass aid to Israel, and before the Senate's compromise on the border and foreign aid was blown up. Still, this show gives you a good window into what Republican voters expect from congressional leadership these days, and who is and is not measuring up. The Bulwark's eyes and ears on Capitol Hill, Joe Perticone joins Sarah to hear from Republican voters.

Sarah is on vacation this week, but we didn't want to leave you without some focus group reactions to Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz joining the Democratic ticket. Listen to how swing voters from around the country AND Minnesota voters who know Walz best are thinking about him and the presidential race more broadly. We'll see you next week.

Nevada has a GOP presidential primary AND a caucus. Donald Trump is going to win the caucus...but the primary is a race between Nikki Haley and "None of these Candidates." Jon Ralston of The Nevada Independent returns to break down the mess that is Nevada's presidential contest, and to preview the state's starring role in the general election.

Donald Trump is wrapping up the Republican nomination, despite 91 felony charges against him. One reason for that is that his voters don't seem to trust any unflattering news about him...and they're turning to sources you probably haven't heard of. Many of them feel like Fox News has gone "woke"...and we're going to ask them why.

Brian Stelter, author of Network of Lies: The Epic Saga of Fox News, Donald Trump, and the Battle for American Democracy joins Sarah to discuss the past, present, and future of conservative media.

Show notes

Disclaimer: This episode discusses several members of the Murdoch family. Kathryn Murdoch is an investor in The Bulwark.

Network of Lies: The Epic Saga of Fox News, Donald Trump, and the Battle for American Democracy

Nikki Haley is on the ropes after losing Iowa by 30 points, but there's one group of voters who could bail her out: New Hampshire's undeclared and moderate Republican voters. The problem? Even though they vote in Republican primaries sometimes, they hate Trump, they're pro-choice, and some watch MSNBC. Republican voters in all of the other states? Not so much.

Iowa's living legend of polling, J. Ann Selzer, joins Sarah to listen to Iowa Republicans ahead of the first-in-the-nation caucuses. Ann discusses her polling, how she does her own focus groups, and how Republican voters are feeling about Donald Trump (good), and the rest of the candidates (lukewarm at best). Ann also discusses how Donald Trump's efforts in Iowa are MUCH better organized in 2024 than in 2016...which will matter in the sub-zero weather Iowa is expecting on caucus night.

To mark the three-year anniversary of the January 6 attack, we're doing something we've never done before. We're digging deep into our archives to play focus group clips from January 2021, right after the attacks, and showing how the voters have changed three years on.

show notes:

Rep. Kinzinger's new book: Renegade: Defending Democracy and Liberty in Our Divided Country

Rep. Kinzinger's organizations:
Country First
Country First Academy

Donald Trump has a huge lead in the Republican primaries...but Nikki Haley has managed to distinguish herself from the other afterthoughts in the field. GOP pollster Whit Ayres joins Sarah for the last episode of 2023 to recap the Republican presidential primary and chart out Nikki Haley's narrow path to the nomination.

Hat-tip to Peter Hamby of Puck for the term ‘Haley Mary.’ https://puck.news/haley-mary/

The economy isn't the best...but it could be a lot worse. And our guest thinks voters are catastrophizing too much about the state of things. Sarah's best friend Jonathan V. Last (JVL) joins the show to argue with voters who aren't there to argue back.

show notes:
Even Most Biden Voters Don’t See a Thriving Economy

Democrats need young voters on-side to win in 2024...so how is Gen Z feeling about the future of the country, and their leaders? What do young progressives and conservatives think about each other? Peter Hamby of Puck News joins Sarah to check in with a cross-section of young voters.

show notes

Peter's:
https://puck.news/biden-gen-z-and-the-illiberal-left/
https://puck.news/bidens-youth-serum-shortage/

The Nineties by Chuck Klosterman

Americans are more divided than they've been in a long time, and Sarah and our guest have heard a lot about that when they've done focus groups together this year. PBS NewsHour's Judy Woodruff joins Sarah for a special Thanksgiving episode to discuss how Americans are thinking of their political differences, and how we might move beyond them going into another contentious election year.

show notes

America at a Crossroads:

• What Iowa Republicans Are Thinking After Trump's Federal Indictment
• Iowa Republicans discuss role of politics in their lives, hopes for overcoming divisions
• How a group of Ohio voters are working to bridge the widening partisan divide
• Pennsylvania Democrats discuss nation's political divisions and their feelings for Biden

It's been difficult to be Jewish in America since October 7, so we're listening to how Jewish voters are processing this moment, and how all Americans are reacting. Bill Kristol joins Sarah to break it all down.

Kamala Harris is closing in on a vice presidential pick, and her shortlist looks...a LOT different than Joe Biden's shortlist did in 2020. New Bulwark managing editor Sam Stein joins Sarah to break down Harris's options and walk through his new reporting on scammy Democratic PACs.

show notes
By Sam Stein:
Harris Camp Warns Supporters: Don’t Get Duped by ‘Scam PACs’
They Begged Dems for Money—Then Spent Lavishly on Hotels and Entertainment

Ohio passed a constitutional amendment protecting abortion rights this week. And the women we talked to in Ohio who voted for Sherrod Brown in 2018 and Donald Trump in 2020 showed us why. Elaine Godfrey of The Atlantic joins Sarah to talk about where the abortion issue is headed in 2024...and why Sarah thinks voters "have Donald Trump's number" on abortion.

show notes:

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2023/06/abortion-rights-issue-2024-election/674504/

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2023/11/nikki-haley-2024-campaign-voter-support/675906/

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2023/05/dr-warren-hern-abortion-post-roe/674000/

The Kentucky gubernatorial election is coming down to the wire, and a young, charismatic Democratic incumbent might have lessons for other Democrats in tough races. As luck would have it, we have our own charismatic red state Democrat to break it all down with Sarah and offer suggestions for fixing American politics: former Ohio Congressman and U.S. Senate candidate Tim Ryan.

It seemed impossible that Donald Trump could ever make inroads with Hispanic voters, but in 2020, he did. And he could again in 2024. Ruy Teixeira— co-founder of The Liberal Patriot and co-author of the new book Where Have All the Democrats Gone— joins Sarah for a frank exchange of ideas about how Democrats can win back a community that might decide the 2024 election.

show notes:
Forthcoming book by Ruy and John Judis: 
https://us.macmillan.com/books/9781250877499/wherehaveallthedemocratsgone#:~:text=In%20Where%20Have%20All%20the,and%20partnership%20of%20the%20working

No one wants a Trump-Biden rematch, but it looks like we're all stuck with it. Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter joins Sarah to talk about the onetime Biden voters who might vote for Trump again.

A third-party group called No Labels might put Donald Trump back in the White House (whoops), and we have a label for that: dangerous. Matt Bennett of Third Way has been one of the leading voices against the No Labels effort. He joins Sarah to give listeners a rundown on No Labels' plans and to hear which voters are picking up what they're putting down.

show notes:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/08/us/politics/biden-trump-third-parties-no-labels.html

https://www.thirdway.org/memo/how-no-labels-is-undermining-our-democracy

We hear four consistent themes from Democrats: water is wet, Joe Biden is old, Kamala Harris is invisible, and Democrats wish their party would fight a bit harder. But we have a guest with some ideas to fix it: Jen Psaki, former White House Press Secretary, and host of Inside with Jen Psaki on MSNBC joins Sarah to hear some critiques from voters that, as Jen says, Democrats need to hear.

One of our focus group participants really prefers that the president be a man. And most of the Republican voters we talked to have only one man in mind: Donald Trump. The Bulwark's own Tim Miller joins Sarah for part two of our season premiere to break down the sorry state of the non-Trump candidates in the Republican presidential primary.

show notes:
https://plus.thebulwark.com/p/there-are-two-gop-primaries-only-one-is-real?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2

https://plus.thebulwark.com/p/super-pacs-worthless-donors-stop-torching-cash

The Focus Group Podcast is BACK, and we're powering all the way through the 2024 election. For part one of our two-part season premiere, we're checking in on how Donald Trump's legal troubles have put his campaign on steroids. CNN's Jake Tapper joins Sarah to hear how much the voters care about Trump's mounting indictments (spoiler: they don't). They also discuss how the media should be covering a presidential nominee on trial, and Jake discusses his new book, All the Demons Are Here.

show notes:

https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/jake-tapper/all-the-demons-are-here/9781668623435/?lens=little-brown

The Focus Group Podcast is on hiatus for a few more weeks, but we've been doing focus groups this whole time. We've got a preview of what you're going to hear when we come back, and we're re-upping our conversation from March with Jane Coaston of The New York Times about our never-ending culture wars. Enjoy, and we'll see you soon!

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A year ago, Republican voters thought Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the people of Ukraine were badasses. Now...Zelenskyy is just as bad as Putin. Tom Nichols, Professor Emeritus at the Naval War College and staff writer at The Atlantic, joins Sarah to listen to the voters' foreign policy takes. Tom is not impressed with the voters. 

show notes:

Tom Nichols Atlantic piece: I Supported the Invasion of Iraq

Tom Nichols book: Our Own Worst Enemy: The Assault from within on Modern Democracy

Pew Research Poll: Poll on Ukraine

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At the 11th hour, Kamala Harris is now the presumptive Democratic nominee. Longtime listeners will know that swing voters have had a negative impression of her--but luckily, it's just an impression! David Axelrod, former senior advisor to President Obama, joins Sarah to walk through where Harris goes from here.

show notes
The Bulwark in Dallas on September 5
The Axe Files with David Axelrod
Hacks on Tap

You've heard the terms "woke" and "cancel culture" for years now. No one seems to agree on what they mean, though — which is why our guest says the culture wars will keep morphing, and they'll go on forever. New York Times opinion writer Jane Coaston joins Sarah to hear how the focus groups respond to "wokeness," "cancel culture," and...schools and drag show bans. We promise, this is NOT the episode to miss.

show notes

Jane Coaston: The Debate Hugh Hefner Won and William Buckley Lost

Survivor: Host Jeff Probst Refuses to Say "Come On In, Guys"

Teen who refuses to cite the Pledge of Allegiance

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Mike Pence seems to think that he's destined to be president. The evangelical Christians in our focus groups did NOT get the memo. McKay Coppins, staff writer at The Atlantic joins Sarah to talk about the future of social conservatism in the Republican Party and Mike Pence's 2024 prospects.

show notes:

"God's Plan for Mike Pence" by McKay Coppins

https://www.littlebrown.com/titles/mckay-coppins/the-wilderness/9780316327466/

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Marjorie Taylor Greene wants a national divorce. We don't, but we asked our focus groups about it anyway. New York Times opinion columnist David French (literally) wrote the book on a possible national divorce. He joins Sarah to talk about whether (and how) the United States holds together; and the task of rebuilding trust in our institutions.

Show notes:

Divided We Fall: America's Secession Threat and How to Restore Our Nation (by David French)

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/26/opinion/fox-news-lies-dominion.html

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Voters that we talk to are iffy about Biden running for re-election given his age, but Republicans may have even larger challenges. Former White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs joins Sarah to talk Joe Biden, the Democratic base, and the bright future of the Democratic bench.

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