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The number of platforms getting into prediction markets is growing by the day, with crypto exchange Gemini and sweepstakes casino MyPrize getting involved. Pet Berisha of Sporting Crypto joins me again to break down recent developments in prediction markets.

DraftKings signaled its intent to get into sports prediction markets this week, but deals by the NHL with Kalshi and Polymarket have changed the meta in the industry. Pet Berisha of Sporting Crypto helps me round up a wild week of news on this week’s podcast.

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Everything I wrote this week on prediction markets

* The Event Horizon

* Polymarket And Kalshi Reportedly Raising Again, At Valuations Over $10B

* The Last 24 Hours Have Been A Sea Change For Prediction Markets

* Kalshi Says It’s ‘Kind Of Addicting’ In Instagram Post

* NYT Op-Ed: ‘Gambling. Investing. Gaming. There’s No Difference Anymore.’

* Kalshi Down For Some Users On Saturday: What We Know

* The Closing Line

* Episode 38: The State Of Prediction Markets After All The Chaos

* News: DraftKings To Launch Prediction Market After Acquiring Railbird

* WSJ Report: Kalshi, Polymarket Ink Licensing Deals With NHL

Prediction markets news roundup

* Polymarket CMO confirms POLY token and airdrop plans as prediction market boom gathers steam (The Block): “Polymarket Chief Marketing Officer Matthew Modabber has confirmed plans to launch a native POLY token and an accompanying airdrop as the prediction market gains growing investor interest amid a trading volume boom. Earlier this month, the company’s founder, Shayne Coplan, had teased a POLY token launch, The Block previously reported.”

* “There will be a token, there will be an airdrop,” Modabber said during an interview on the Degenz Live podcast on Thursday. “We could have launched a token whenever we wanted, and it’s just how thorough we want to be about it. We want it to be a token with true utility, longevity, and to be around forever, right? That’s what we expect from ourselves, and that’s what I think everyone in the space expects from us.”

* “However, Polymarket’s current focus is on its U.S. app launch, with Coplan confirming in September that the platform has been “given the green light to go live” in the country again after halting operations there in 2022 amid regulatory uncertainty.”

* “Why rush a token if we need to prioritize the U.S. app, right?” Modabber said. “After the U.S. launch, there will be a focus on the token and getting that live and making sure that it’s well done.”

* Here’s the clip talking about it on Twitter:

* Predictions offering should be a positive for DraftKings, says Jefferies (TipRanks): “Jefferies reiterated a Buy rating and $51 price target on DraftKings (DKNG). With the purchase of Railbird and the creation of DraftKings Predictions, the company is taking a wholly owned approach to prediction markets, compared to Flutter’s (FLUT) joint venture with CME Group (CME), the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm believes an offering in predictions is necessary for entry into OSB-illegal states, with limited upfront capital spend due to the limited economics, all of which should be a positive for the stock.”

* Stifel also maintained a buy rating after the Railbird acquisition.

* Is the Next FiveThirtyEight a Gambling Site? (Politico): “Still, the fallout of the incident was closely watched by another group: those hoping that the predictive power of betting platforms will soon transform politics and political media. In the past few years, both the number of such platforms and their number of users have skyrocketed. Two are taking off particularly rapidly: Polymarket and Kalshi. …”

* “The rise of political betting is not just lucrative for the bettors and the platforms. Its advocates also hope that one day, it can replace the political prediction industry generally and remake the larger political media ecosystem. “[Traders are] incentivized with cold, hard cash to separate the emotion, to make a bet with their head rather than the heart,” said John A. Phillips, the CEO of the betting platform PredictIt. That means, the boosters argue, that they are more accurate than traditional polls and analyses of those polls.”

* 💡My take: Politico referring to prediction markets as gambling sites in the headline is an interesting data point in the macro as political concerns could grow in the coming months.

* Wealthy whales may be manipulating elections — thanks to prediction market technology (NY Post): “‘Markets are open to manipulation by a small number of deep-pocketed market participants.’” Dr. Don Moore, the Lorraine Tyson Mitchell Chair in Leadership and Communication at University of California, Berkeley, told me.”

* “Betting markets present an opportunity to manipulate perception,” Moore, who specializes in decision making and politics, said. “One fear is if your candidate is way ahead in early results you don’t need to get to the poll, but there is a countervailing motivation that some benefits accrue to candidates who seem to be pulling ahead.”

* 💡My take: I am a bit skeptical this is happening or will happen at scale at prediction markets for major elections. But in much smaller down-ballot elections with less liquidity, this seems feasible, at least for short periods of time.

* You could bet on CZ getting pardoned by Trump at Polymarket: President Donald Trump pardoned Binance founder Changpeng Zhao on Friday, and some people made a lot of money on this. The market didn’t seem to catch onto this one too early, as it was still trading at less than a five percent chance right before the news dropped.

* Is Your Broker Turning Into Your Bookie? Robinhood, DraftKings And More Face Off In Prediction Markets Boom (Investor’s Business Daily): These quotes stuck out to me:

* “‘There are big differences between investing and, for example, opening an app where you can place a bet on Monday night’s football game or make other speculative wagers that have zero connection to the financial markets,’ said Rick Wurster, president and CEO of Charles Schwab (SCHW), an online broker not planning to offer wagering to investors. ‘For those who understand the risks, this can be a form of entertainment. But what’s concerning to me is we are seeing certain brokers equate investing with that type of speculative activity.’”

* “My biggest concern is for younger investors, or those who are newer to investing,” Wurster said. “If their first experience is an app that mixes gambling and entertainment with investing, they may start to believe that being invested means there’s going to be an immediate payoff or return.”

PayNearMe has developed the gaming industry’s first platform that is purpose-built to dramatically improve the end-to-end payment experience. It enables operators to manage the entire payment journey, for all major forms of payment and through the most popular channels. With PayNearMe, operators gain full control of the payment flow, promoting acquisition, retention and efficiency. One platform, one integration—built to solve gaming’s toughest payments problems.

* Prediction markets have a bleak view of how long this government shutdown will last (Business Insider): “Three weeks on, the US government shutdown is showing no signs of ending, and if betting markets are right, it’ll easily end up being the longest in history.”

* “On Thursday, odds on Polymarket showed that bettors think the latest shutdown will be the lengthiest on record. A wager with almost $2 million in volume shows 40% of bettors think it will last until November 16 or later. After that, 16% believe it will go until November 4-7, and 13% see it lasting until November 13-16.”

* “Bets on Kalshi also show that users expect the shutdown to continue well into November. Betting volume has reached $16,383,303, and bettors see a 77% chance that it will exceed 35 days, lasting until November 15. Odds that it will last at least 40 days are currently at 56%.”

* From Crypto To The SEC: Prediction Market Startups Look For Latest Edge (InGame): “Sportsbook giants, daily fantasy companies, and crypto exchanges are all taking steps toward the world of prediction markets, with some acquiring businesses approved to offer event contracts by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) while others partner with approved firms. But the prediction market boom has also led to a host of smaller startups that promise to disrupt the space. While they haven’t raised close to the hundreds of millions that Kalshi and Polymarket have received from venture capital and Wall Street, they have been raising funds and hope to one day challenge the top players. For many founders, the crypto ecosystem offers a way to create a prediction market outside of the CFTC-regulated world, though it remains to be seen whether they will face regulatory action if they accept U.S. customers without the commodity regulator’s approval. Meanwhile, at least one business is eyeing a different financial regulator for approval.”

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Friday morning’s news dump from Kalshi led me and Pet Berisha of Sporting Crypto to turn this in an emergency podcast.

The news:

* Kalshi is going live in 140+ countries, sharing a liquidity pool with the United States.

* Kalshi also announced it recently raised more than $300 million at a $5B valuation, led by Sequoia and a16z.

When Polymarket launches in the US, what’s that going to look like and how disruptive might it be? Pet Berisha of Sporting Crypto also talks with me about Robinhood going international, Kalshi wanting to go crypto, and how much do state-regulated sportsbooks need to worry about all of this… particularly Kalshi’s launch of parlays.

Of note: Polymarket.us now has a landing page, but the app is not yet live for real money:

And from InGame, surmising that Polymarket might not be able to launch until the government shutdown ends:

“Polymarket will not be able to offer its prediction markets in the U.S. until a government shutdown comes to an end if past precedent is anything to go by. In the past, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has stayed self-certifications of new markets until the government returns to full activity. The current shutdown began Oct. 1. ‘In the past, [CFTC] staff have taken the position that self-certifications are stayed during government shutdowns,’ a legal expert in commodities regulation told InGame, before adding, ‘but that’s not written in law.’’

Conveniently, you can bet/trade on the length of the shutdown at both Kalshi and Polymarket!

Also of note: Kalshi has been posting self-certifications since the shutdown began.

It’s take two of The Event Horizon podcast, as Pet Berisha of Sporting Crypto joins me again to talk about recent developments in prediction markets. Kalshi has surpassed Polymarket in trading volume, which has far more nuance to it than just the raw numbers.

We also talk about what’s happening at the CFTC (Brian Quintenz was ousted as the nominee since we recorded it), how South Park was a big moment for prediction markets, and what’s going on at a PM startup called Melee.

Prediction markets news roundup

* Kalshi is launching more baseball markets: On Tuesday, Kalshi self-certified several new types of baseball markets:

* The run or no-run first-inning market is a popular way to bet baseball at US sportsbooks. Kalshi is also rolling out runlines (not as popular) and game run totals.

* Quintenz out: I sent out a quick newser on Tuesday night that Brian Quintenz is reportedly out as the nominee of the CFTC. This was more or less a formality at this point. The confirmation process was going nowhere, and his replacements were already being vetted by the White House. We’ve just been waiting for the other shoe to drop.

* For now, the status quo of Acting Chair Caroline Pham (with no other commissioners) persists, which has undoubtedly been good for the expansion of prediction markets as Kalshi has turned into a robust sports betting exchange unchecked. There are at least some questions about the status quo now, after an advisory put out by the CFTC; more on that later. The delay in confirming a new CFTC chair has meant that the next nominee might not be able to dodge questions about prediction markets as easily as Quintenz did a few months ago. Kalshi has gotten a lot bigger, and a lot more people are learning about sports betting via prediction markets, including a growing number of senators. See:

* Cortez Masto, Curtis Push CFTC for Answers on Enforcement of Illegal Gaming in Event Contracts (press release): “Today, U.S. Senators Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) and John Curtis (R-Utah) led four of their Senate colleagues in a letter to Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Acting Chair Caroline Pham reminding the Commission sports betting is regulated by states and tribes, not the CFTC. The Senators underscore that by implicitly allowing some companies to offer sports betting activities as ‘event contracts,’ the CFTC is preventing enforcement of state and tribal gaming laws which inappropriately permits sports betting nationwide.”

* “The CFTC is expressly prohibited from allowing event contracts that involve gaming, are unlawful under federal or state law or are contrary to the public interest,” wrote the Senators. “Despite this prohibition, the CFTC is permitting sportsbook gaming to inappropriately designate themselves as ‘event contracts’ with oversight by the CFTC. For example, some companies are claiming to allow legal sports betting in all fifty states. This action – and the CFTC’s unwillingness to stop it – contradicts both the letter and the intent of the law. The Commission cannot sidestep its statutory obligations by declining to enforce the prohibitions that Congress enacted. Doing so undermines the sovereign authority of states and tribes to regulate gambling within their jurisdictions and risks federalizing an area of law that the Supreme Court has held is reserved to the states.”

* “The continued availability of illegal sport event contracts in all 50 states further reaffirms the need for the CFTC to enforce its own regulations mandated by Congress. Moreover, by claiming to be federally regulated by the CFTC, issuers of sports event contracts can avoid myriad state laws, including licensing and background investigations, minimum age requirements, federal anti-money laundering rules, and consumer protections such as addiction warnings and integrity monitoring. These rigorous standards are required by state and tribal licensed entities which the CFTC does not have the authority or the capacity to replicate,” the Senators concluded.

* “Read the full letter here. Additional signatories include Senators Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), Alex Padilla (D-Calif.), Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), and Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.).”

* My take: The letter had been circulating in the Senate last week, in the hopes of getting more signers. I would imagine the final tally of six out of 100 senators was beneath expectations, especially with only one Republican joining the five Democrats.

* Curtis being in the mix is the interesting part. Utah doesn’t have state-regulated gambling, but now Kalshi says sports betting is legal in 50 states. So Utah now has gambling. The libertarian streak of some Republicans giving businesses free rein is going to be in conflict with party members that don’t like gambling, and don’t like overriding states’ rights. It’s quite a conundrum if any Republican takes a minute to unpack what is happening with sports event contracts.

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* The CFTC acknowledges that sports event contracts exist: If nothing else, Tuesday’s advisory was noteworthy in that it’s the first time the CFTC has really said anything about sports event contracts. A roundtable about prediction markets that was supposed to happen in the spring was canceled and never rescheduled.

* The advisory doesn’t say that much that is material; again, the story is in the advisory’s existence at all. What it did say in a nutshell (from The Closing Line, my other newsletter): “The advisory notes that companies involved in the prediction markets ecosystem should be prepared for having to deal with the possible ‘termination of sports-related event contract positions’ based on state litigation and regulatory actions. A number of states have issued cease-and-desist letters to Kalshi for allegedly offering sports betting without a license. Kalshi is actively engaged in litigation with three states.”

* We’re left to read tea leaves about what the CFTC is trying to communicate here. Again pulling from TCL: “Goodwin Law attorney Andrew Kim, who has been following legal matters around prediction markets, broke down what the advisory could mean on LinkedIn:”

* “It may be that the CFTC is simply being cautious about what could happen if prediction markets lose their preemption fight against the states,” Kim said. “But the advisory makes me wonder whether the current CFTC (i.e., a CFTC without new leadership) will support sports prediction markets in that preemption fight — or whether it will simply stay above the fray. A CFTC exercising this kind of prudence about parallel authority may not share the view of prediction market operators that the agency’s ‘exclusive’ jurisdiction should exclude the states.”

* What’s it all mean? It apparently means the CFTC doesn’t view sports event contracts as being unassailable under the law. But stay tuned.

* Full advisory here:

* Kalshi apparently did a partnership with a teenager (that deal is now over): Things are moving fast in prediction markets; we’re all just trying to keep up. But sometimes it seems like Kalshi’s marketing team doesn’t have much in the way of guardrails or any type of brakes. Someone sent me this on Twitter:

* On its face, that seems slightly out of the ordinary but not that strange. The account apparently got a badge and some sort of a deal, tweeted a few times about prediction markets and moved on. But when you look in the replies, the account notes that they can’t work with Kalshi because they are not 18:

* Kalshi, whether you think it’s a gambling site or not, still has a minimum age of 18, so partnering someone who is 15 is a head-scratcher. If you think Kalshi is at least in part a betting exchange (it definitely is), partnering with someone who is not even close to a legal gambling age is a bit crazy. Try to imagine the firestorm that would ensue if DraftKings or FanDuel worked with a teenager. Instead, this is just a random note in one of my newsletters that may or may not get more attention. C’est la vie.

* Kalshi’s Competitiveness Still Limited Despite Parlay Debut (WSJ, paywall): “Kalshi’s move brings it closer to looking like a sportsbook, adding to investor concerns that it could develop competitive products with potentially better odds than traditional sportsbooks. But Kalshi is still limited in how much money it can take in from the sports-betting industry, and adding a parlay product could attract more legal scrutiny to prediction markets, Benchmark analyst Mike Hickey said.”

* “Until it scales or becomes more robust, it doesn’t appear competitive,” Hickey said of Kalshi’s new product. “It seems like DraftKings and FanDuel still have an edge.”

* “Kalshi’s parlay product is still bare-bones compared to what traditional online sportsbooks offer, Oppenheimer analysts led by Jed Kelly said in a note. They believe the product emphasizes that prediction markets are having a limited impact on DraftKings’ and FanDuel’s handle and engagement so far this football season.”

* My take: Despite the above, DraftKings and Flutter (FanDuel parent) stock — the two companies that are most impacted by the expansion of sports betting via prediction markets — took a pretty big hit on Tuesday, at least partially on the prediction market sector’s advances. (Some of it appears to be on falling consumer confidence metrics, as well.) They were both down about ten percent on Tuesday.

* The crazy part about the stock drops (at least partially on the Kalshi parlay news): How was this not baked into the market already? Did people really think this wasn’t going to happen? I suppose until everyone saw it with their own eyes, maybe they didn’t believe it. But I would have been more shocked if Kalshi didn’t launch parlays sometime this year.

* Robinhood Explores Launching Prediction Markets Outside US (Bloomberg, paywall): “Robinhood Markets Inc. is exploring an expansion of its prediction markets product to countries outside of the US, a move that would broaden the reach of the already fast-growing and often controversial industry. The brokerage has been speaking to overseas regulators like the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority about how it might offer prediction markets locally, as demand for the space continues to grow. At issue is how such products might be structured and regulated — while prediction markets are considered futures products in the US, they’re often lumped in with gambling in other regions.”

* One more note from the SEC-CFTC roundtable: A bit of good insight from Vixio’s Matt Carey (via LinkedIn)…. “Top executives from leading financial exchanges have expressed frustration with the self-certification model that exchanges like Kalshi use to quickly introduce new markets, including sports-event contracts. While specific discussion of sports-event contracts was virtually non-existent, the conversation did circle around to some of the current market conditions that allow for the contracts to be viable. Those include the CFTC’s self-certification model that allows Kalshi and other prediction markets, including the soon-to-launch Polymarket, to submit a market to the CFTC and begin offering it a day later rather than wait for specific approval.”

* “I think the worst thing to have happen is to allow a product out the gate and then have the participants going at it in a certain direction, and then all of a sudden there’s a change, either at the regulator or somewhere else, where they have to pull back, relocate, bring it into a different regulatory environment,” said Terrence Duffy, CEO of the CME Group, which is the largest commodities exchange in the U.S. “It’s very disruptive for innovation.”

Thanks for reading Event Horizon! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

I recently started talking with Pet Berisha of Sporting Crypto, and we decided to start a podcast on a lark. The wide-ranging first episode was a fun conversation; we pick each other’s brains on where prediction markets might be headed in the US.

Pet Berisha's piece on the Prediction Market Singularity https://newsletter.sportingcrypto.com/p/prediction-market-singularity

Kalshi’s Sports Insurance Play — Hedging, Not Betting (Sporting Crypto)

Volume Doesn’t Pay The Bills (LinkedIn)

The Polymarket-Google fiasco:

https://www.ingame.com/google-engineer-polymarket-insider-trading/

https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/the-polymarket-google-case-and-insider-trading

Trump talks prediction markets

https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/trump-some-prediction-market-opponents-are-scum

Here come new exchanges:

DraftKings... https://www.ingame.com/draftkings-self-certifies-first-contracts/

Rothera from Robinhood... https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/robinhood-cfo-says-most-prediction-flow-moving-to-rothera

When will SCOTUS tackle prediction markets?

https://www.ingame.com/nj-petition-scotus-prediction-market/

Senators talking prediction markets: https://closingline.substack.com/p/senators-were-fired-up-about-prediction-markets-at-hearing

Combinatoric Athletic Outcome Contracts!https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/its-not-a-parlay-its-a-combinatoric-athletic-outcome-contract

Betting On Survivor:https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/stop-letting-people-bet-on-survivor

Breaking down Kalshi retail handle and parlays: https://www.ingame.com/kalshis-true-betting-handle-draftkings-fanduel/

https://www.sportico.com/business/sports-betting/2026/kalshi-parlays-retail-bettor-losses-rfq-1234894471/

Polymarket US is fully live: https://www.ingame.com/polymarket-us-live-without-waitlist/

FanDuel and DraftKings on prediction markets:https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/what-we-learned-about-fanduel-and-prediction-markets-q1https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/what-draftkings-and-genius-sports-said-about-prediction-markets-q1-earnings

Parlay volume!https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/most-of-kalshis-recent-volume-growth-from-parlays

Maryland and Massachusetts vs. Kalshihttps://www.ingame.com/fourth-circuit-judges-wary-kalshi-maryland/https://www.ingame.com/kalshi-massachusetts-supreme-court-questions/

Everyone had comments for the CFTC on prediction markets rule making: https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/the-most-interesting-comments-on-cftc-rulemaking-for-prediction-markets

Senate bans prediction market trading by senators: https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2026/04/30/congress/new-ban-on-prediction-market-trading-00901232

Robinhood Q1 earnings and prediction markets: https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/what-we-learned-about-robinhood-and

Polymarket international to the U.S.?: https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/04/28/polymarket-seeks-cftc-approval-to-reopen-main-exchange-to-u-s-traders

Soldier arrested for Maduro betting: https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/us-soldier-arrested-for-maduro-bets

Three candidates caught betting on themselves: https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/five-questions-after-kalshi-fines

NY sues prediction markets: https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/new-york-ag-sues-coinbase-gemini

Fox + Kalshi…but no elections?

https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/fox-news-has-a-kalshi-deal

White House warns people not to insider trade on PMs

https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/white-house-warns-staff-not-to-place-bets-on-prediction-markets-amid-iran-war-3780668f

NCAA is big for Kalshi

https://www.ingame.com/2026-ncaa-tournament-volume-fees-kalshi/

$1.1 trillion for PMs?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-09/bofa-sees-a-1-1-trillion-market-for-sports-event-betting-in-us?taid=69d7b3615fcb6f0001a6e7f6&utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

Kalshi wins in NJ

https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/news-kalshi-wins-appeal-vs-new-jersey

WTF is going on in Arizona

https://www.ingame.com/federal-court-arizona-injunction-act/

Unfortunately, we recorded the podcast before all hell broke loose with the Trump teleprompter operator story. But we did talk about betting on flight cancellations, which Kalshi apparently decided to pause sometime after we recorded the podcast.

But it’s still a good chat between me and Daniel O’Boyle of InGame on all the news of the week in prediction markets. I guess that will teach us to record on Fridays instead of Thursday from now on. Maybe.

Here was my original piece on Kalshi’s potential markets on flight cancellations:

Seinfeld Episode Or Prediction Market?

And here’s the update from Fortune: “Prediction market platform Kalshi has called off plans for its latest offering: Contracts that would let users wager on upcoming flight cancellations. The decision comes after social media users expressed fears that bad actors could make mischief at airports in order to collect a payout, and after popular airline-tracking service FlightAware said Kalshi could not use its data to resolve the contracts.”

And more from Adjacent Press: https://press.adj.news/p/the-airportdelay-certification

More on Kalshi volume:

https://www.ingame.com/kalshi-2-billion-volume/

https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/kalshi-is-crushing-everyone-in-app-downloads

Robinhood/Rothera volume: https://www.ingame.com/robinhood-rothera-volume-kalshi/

What the hell is going on in Michigan? https://www.ingame.com/cftc-blocks-kalshi-voids/

Congressional happenings

Hearing https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/news-congress-to-hold-prediction

Kalshi CEO on the Hill for new bill https://gottheimer.house.gov/posts/release-to-protect-children-gottheimer-introduces-new-bipartisan-bill-requiring-facial-recognition-age-verification-for-online-sportsbooks

Did you know you can bet on Kalshi on how many Spotify streams artists will get? Well, of course you can, because you can bet on almost anything on Kalshi. But what happens when someone tries to manipulate the streaming metrics? We found that out last week! Daniel O’Boyle of InGame helps break down the latest nonsense.

First, this at The Event Horizonhttps://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/how-artificial-spotify-streams-broke-kalshi-market

Here’s from a story on Wired: https://www.wired.com/story/spotify-streaming-manipulation-prediction-markets-polymarket-kalshi/

This week, the situation hit a boiling point when the song “Earrings” by Malcolm Todd surged to number one on a Spotify chart. In a series of X posts, Davies outlined his suspected culprit: “botting,” or scammers who purchase bots to juice streaming numbers. Davies argued that prediction market traders were botting the charts to influence the outcome of related events contracts. Todd’s song was such an underdog that it wasn’t even listed as an option on Polymarket: “Looking at the dataset of Sunday to Monday changes, it was a 11.24 sigma event, or a roughly 1 in 77 octillion chance of happening randomly,” Davies wrote.

- Things start getting serious for Kalshi and everyone else in Michigan: https://www.ingame.com/kalshi-sports-contracts-banned-michigan/

- Everything else in US is a rounding error: https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/how-much-kalshi-trading-is-there-outside-of-sports

Daniel O’Boyle of InGame and I did an “emergency” podcast today to deal with all of the news that dropped on Friday morning. That includes a deal between Kalshi and FIFA…or rather Kalshi and ADI Predictstreet, apparently?

Kalshi and ADI Predictstreet Announce Strategic Partnership to Expand Global Prediction Market Footprint during World Cup™ and Beyond (press release): ADI Predictstreet, the Official Prediction Market Partner of the FIFA World Cup 2026™, today announced a strategic branding and product partnership with Kalshi, the world’s leading prediction market exchange. This collaboration will expand prediction markets globally, providing billions of fans with new ways to engage with the world’s biggest sporting event.

Heading into the knockout stage, Kalshi will be co-branded alongside ADI Predictstreet in stadium, TV, and online placements. Longer term, Kalshi will provide market expansion to ADI Predictstreet’s platform.

In the first two weeks of World Cup™ play, Kalshi has seen explosive growth. Last week, it experienced record daily volume of $1 billion-plus. The company has inked a number of World Cup™ focused partnerships including with the Argentine Football Association (AFA,) Men in Blazers, Luka Modric, and the Croatian Football Federation. It currently controls approximately 90% of the regulated U.S. prediction market share, according to Bank of America.

Dimitrios Psarrakis, Chief Executive Officer of ADI Predictstreet, said: “This is a transformational moment for our industry. Kalshi has built one of the most recognized prediction market platforms in the world, together we have an extraordinary opportunity to leverage ADI Chain’s capabilities to introduce prediction markets to millions of new users through football’s biggest stage. Our ambition extends far beyond the World Cup™. We are building the foundations for a truly global prediction market ecosystem powered by world-class technology.”

Tarek Mansour, Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer of Kalshi, said: “The World Cup™ is the largest stage for any brand. We see this as a massive opportunity to increase global awareness and fan engagement.”

• A New York Times story earlier in the morning said: “Kalshi is expected to announce on Friday that it has become an official partner of FIFA, thanks to a branding and product deal with the World Cup’s existing prediction market partner, the little-known platform ADI Predictstreet.”

• Kalshi posted and then deleted that the deal was with FIFA:https://x.com/DustinGouker/status/2070522854945472693?s=20

• More context:https://x.com/BenHorney/status/2070516886798844385?s=20

• Update on Kalshi volume and revenue.___

Polymarket US Is Self-Certifying ’Next Team’ Markets, Including High School Recruits Signing With Colleges:

Update: Polymarket tells me that it is withdrawing the self-certification for NCAA “next team” markets.

Polymarket US is self-certifying player movement markets for a number of major team sports. That would seem to indicate that Major League Baseball — which is a partner of Polymarket — could be OK with that type of market. And Polymarket could also allow markets on high school players committing to college programs, per new filings.

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DraftKings Launches Proprietary Exchange to Bolster Differentiated Predictions Experience (press release): DraftKings Inc. today announced the launch of its proprietary prediction markets exchange, DKeX, with integration into the unified DraftKings: Sports & Casino app, further advancing the DraftKings Predictions experience. The launch positions the Company to innovate more rapidly through greater ownership over content depth, operating economics, and the end-to-end customer experience. DKeX marks the next phase in DraftKings’ prediction markets evolution, strengthening its ability to deliver differentiated sports experiences across the country alongside its leading sportsbook.

“DraftKings is at its best when building innovative platforms that bring together technology, customer focus, and world-class execution to shape the future of sports engagement,” said Jason Robins, Chief Executive Officer and Co-Founder of DraftKings. “The momentum we’ve seen on DraftKings Predictions in recent months reflects the significant progress we’ve made in delivering a more seamless and connected experience for sports fans. DKeX provides a vertically integrated foundation for DraftKings Predictions, strengthening our prediction markets content and capabilities, giving us greater control over the technology that powers those offerings, and enabling us to move faster as we continue enhancing our unified app.”

The launch of DKeX comes as DraftKings Predictions continues rapid growth, with approximately $3.4 billion in annualized consumer volume and approximately $11.3 billion in annualized total trading volume for the week ended June 21. The Company expects continued growth throughout July, driven by ongoing enhancements to the platform, growing adoption of new event contracts and features such as combinations, and heightened interest surrounding the World Cup. Since launching in mid-May, more than 30% of customers have used combinations, which allow multiple individual contracts to be bundled into a single position, highlighting strong demand for a customizable, sports-first prediction markets experience.

“The launch of DKeX and its integration into our unified app is a major step forward in delivering a best-in-class customer experience in sports nationwide,” said Jeanine Hightower-Sellitto, DraftKings Senior Vice President and General Manager of Prediction Markets. “The pace of development across Predictions has been substantial, from expanding our event contract offerings to introducing key features like combos, which customers have quickly embraced. DKeX is the latest milestone in that progression and creates new opportunities to further expand the offering ahead of some of the biggest moments on the sports calendar.”

As part of DraftKings’ all-in-one platform strategy, DraftKings Predictions continues to evolve within the unified app. The DraftKings Sports experience brings sports betting and prediction market trading together with sportsbook offerings and/or sports event contracts available based on customer location. Recent enhancements include Predictions Sports Combos, expanded pre-game and in-play stats, dedicated hubs for major events such as the World Cup, and an always-on Live tab that surfaces real-time sporting events, giving customers more opportunities to engage with key moments as they unfold. DraftKings also enhanced its Responsible Engagement tools through My Budget and Controls, an in-app destination for managing deposit limits and personalized activity alerts.

DraftKings Predictions has also expanded with additional event contract offerings, including MLB player and futures contracts, No Runs First Inning (NRFI) baseball, broader NBA and NHL selections, and international sports.

The DraftKings Sports experience is available nationally, including sports event contracts in 18 states. The Company applies its Responsible Engagement principles across its prediction markets offering, supporting informed participation through tools and resources, including the DraftKings Responsible Trading Center.

DKeX leverages the technology and CFTC license from DraftKings’ acquisition of Railbird Technologies.

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Meta + prediction markets

Daniel O’Boyle of InGame and I break down recent news in prediction markets, including Kalshi nearing $9 billion in weekly volume, new exchanges getting a green light, and a bad story for Polymarket.

Kalshi volume (paywall at The Closing Line)

ProphetX

Novig

Rothera

WSJ on Polymarket

Daniel O’Boyle of InGame and I are still trying to process that the prediction markets news cycle now includes George Santos, somehow. We break down all the recent news in in the industry.

Plus I talk with Kindbridge Behavioral Health CEO Daniel Umfleet about prediction markets, addiction, and treatment.

News recap and analysis at the start; Interview with Kindbridge CEO at 31:13.

George Santos, lol

https://www.ingame.com/doj-investigating-santos-kalshi-trades/

THERE WAS A BIG ($5,000) HEDGE AT AN NYC BAR

https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/mattress-mack-walked-so-kalshi-could-run

Rush Street applies for a DCM

https://www.ingame.com/rush-street-interactive-predictions-dcm/

Will DraftKings win in prediction markets

https://closingline.substack.com/p/draftkings-ceo-i-know-whos-going-to-win-prediction-markets

Here comes Robinhood/Rothera

https://robinhood.com/us/en/newsroom/the-world-cup-is-now-trading-on-robinhood-and-rothera/

I’ll be at NEXTPredict in October; a lot of big names and smart people from the prediction markets industry will be there. Get your tickets now for 15% off using this link and promo code CLOSINGLINE15.

We started the podcast just talking about how popular betting on LeBron James’ next team had become at Kalshi and other prediction markets. And then as Daniel O’Boyle of InGame and I were wrapping up the pod, he announced where he was going!

Show notes:

-Cap Space:

LeBron's Decision 3.0 Is More Popular To Bet on Than Actual Basketball

-The Kalshi market

-Wisconsin election betting:

Wisconsin Warns Election Bettors They Could Lose Their Vote, And Kalshi Isn’t Happy

-The Trump teleprompter fallout (or lack thereof):

Four Questions About The White House Teleprompter Operator Who Allegedly Bet On Kalshi

It was a busy week in court for prediction markets, from a big lawsuit from the New York attorney general to a win for Kalshi in Minnesota. Daniel O’Boyle of InGame and Dustin Gouker break down all the important news on the legal front and beyond in this week’s Event Horizon podcast.

Show notes:

Legal stuff, from InGame:

New York Sues Kalshi In State Court, Asks For $36 Billion Fine

Sixth Circuit Judge To Kalshi: What’s So Bad About Being Regulated By States?

Prediction Markets Still Legal In Minnesota, But Kalshi At Risk Of New York Ban

Nevada Says It ‘Shut Down’ Kalshi’s Sports Business, As Prediction Market Agrees To Use Third-Party Geofence

The rest:

News: IG Group To Acquire Underdog In Deal Worth Up To $1.3 Billion

Meet the Mets’ Prediction-Market Pick: Novig

Three Things We Learned About Robinhood And Prediction Markets During Q2 Earnings

Taking Stock Of The Prediction Markets Rules Comments: CME Raises (Many) Questions, Kalshi Urges Adoptions, And Dodd Speaks