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This week we look at the latest Australian inflation figures.

The September quarter CPI figures came in slightly better than expected, with the headline numbers showing a decrease in inflation. This was largely driven by government rebates and falling fuel prices. However, services inflation remains stubbornly high.

Additionally, some commentators are suggesting a December rate cut is possible...will Mark hold firm to his February prediction?

Read more from Mark on the AICD website: https://www.aicd.com.au/news-media/economic-weekly.html

Send feedback to: podcasts@aicd.com.au

Today we have an in-depth look at the IMF's latest World Economic Outlook report, before returning home to dissect the bumper jobs numbers and latest consumer confidence numbers.

In brief, it was an optimistic outlook from the IMF, begging the question, is central bank credibility back? With that said, champagne flutes should remain in the fridge, as there are still a litany of risks to the global economy identified, and suggestions put forward for both governments and bureaucrats - but how likely are they to happen?

And then we revisit Mark's February prediction of our first rate cut in light of huge jobs numbers, and increasing consumer sentiment.

Read more from Mark on the AICD website: https://www.aicd.com.au/news-media/economic-weekly.html

Send feedback to: podcasts@aicd.com.au

Mark regales us with the vibe on the ground in Canberra. Plus, an around the grounds on:

• RBA Minutes

• Core logic house and rent price data

• Retail sales numbers

• Job ads

And the number of the week this week asks: if climate change results in supply shocks become increasingly regular to the point of predictability, should food inflation still be excluded from core inflation numbers?

The budget position is better than expected and treasury forecasts are rosy for the Australian economy. Are they overly optimistic given the uncertainty in the world? Plus, retail sales rebound from omicron and the yield curve inverts again.

An OECD simulation warns of a 1 percentage point hit to global growth from the war in Ukraine, consumer confidence dives on cost of living concerns and we preview the budget.

The global economy is being hit hard by supply shocks - first war in Ukraine and now the covid resurgence in China. Will higher food and commodity prices flow through to inflation expectations? What are central banks to do? How dependent is the German economy on Russian gas? And what is going on in the nickel market? Plus, the Australian jobs miracle continues.

We are reposting this episode because it originally had an audio glitch. Apologies. Ivan's fault.

Surging prices, war in Ukraine, the spectre of nuclear conflict – how worried should we be? This episode was recorded live last week in Melbourne at the Australian Governance Summit.

Wages growth is off the pandemic floor but remains historically weak. How low can unemployment go in Australia before we start to see inflationary pressures? Plus, we look at the potential eocnomic impact of war in Ukraine.

We are back! Markets are roiling at the prospect of interest rate hikes over 2022. Will central banks take away the punchbowl? Should we be worried about a crash? Plus, a mixed confidence picture in Australia as we emerge from Omciron and the latest on Evergrande's debt workout.

It's another bumper quizmas episode. We score Mark on last year's quiz, look ahead to 2022 and run through The Dismal Science summer reading list. Plus, the final extremely strong jobs numbers for 2022, Biden's troubled stimulus bill and the MYEFO. We'll be back with more episodes in late January.

Directors have identified labour shortages as the biggest economic challenge facing Australian business, according to the AICD's latest Director Sentiment Index. Plus, the Australian residential property market passes $9 trillion in value, record job ads and European carbon prices skyrocket.

Our founding economist Stephen Walters, now NSW Chief Economist, comes back for our 100th episode to reflect on what's changed in economics since we started in 2017 and his role in advising the NSW government during the pandemic. Plus, 3Q GDP turns out not to be as bad as we feared, Omicron looms on the horizon, another record current account surplus and house prices keep on going up.

Grab bag this week for our 99th episode: Four more years for Jerome Powell, President Biden taps the US strategic oil reserves, PMIs turn positive for Australia and decentralised autonomous organisations.

Monthly inflation numbers have come in hot, adding pressure on the RBA to lift rates.

What does the upcoming French election tell us about Britain, bonds and post-covid fiscal policy?

And does the much hyped Guzman Y Gomez IPO and subsequent share price pop suggest that burritos are recession proof? 

The COP26 climate talks were largely a failure against their stated goals. So is there any hope for the future of negotiations and the planet? Plus, wages remain subdued, the RBA's view on the inflation debate and the war for talent.

We go back to the Paris Agreement and ask if its vision, particularly restraining warming to less than 2 degrees, can be met at COP26 and beyond. Plus, central banks begin the task of unwinding unconventional pandemic support programs.

The government announces a 'plan' for net zero, plus is the inflation genie coming for Australia?

The China economy is creaking. Could the crash be coming and what can the authorities do to stop it? Plus, the market questions the RBA, lockdowns hit the job market and how COVID impacts football performance.

NSW reopens and spending takes off, the Great Resignation, a global tax deal and a Nobel Prize for natural experiments.

Gas shortages are leading to spiraling energy prices across the world. Are we headed for another era of stagflation? Plus, APRA tries to cool the housing market, another record trade surplus for Australia, and should the US mint a trillion dollar coin?

"Everything Evergrande owns belongs to the Party and the Chinese people," Evergrande Chairman Hui Ka Yan once said. Will the Chinese people now own the crashing property company's $300bn of debt or is China headed for a financial crisis? Plus, housing affordability, monetary tapering and vaccinating the world. This is a long one but we're taking next week off so listen at your leisure.

Large parts of the economy are in 'wait, survive and see' mode, according to RBA governor Philip Lowe. We look at the latest deceptive unemployment data, the OECD's Australian economy fan fiction for a post-pandemic world, house prices and urban planning, as well as US inflation, the softening in the Chinese economy and central banks' role in fighting climate change. It's a big one!

The RBA is expecting the economy to bounce back in December but should the halting recovery of other more open economies around the world be tempering our optimism? Plus, is the China property bubble about to burst?

The Delta lockdowns have caused widespread job losses and decimated consumer demand. Were economic policymakers inadequately prepared for the downside risks of a new COVID strain? Plus, Q2 GDP, takeaways from this year's Jackson Hole conference, and the Taliban economy.

Trade with China continues to flourish despite strategic and political tension. Does Chinese Premier Li Qiang's visit to Australia mean we can continue to, as the Chinese saying goes, pull strongly against the raging tide? Plus, hawkish sounds from the RBA as the path grows ever narrower and the effect of WFH on real wages.

The latest confidence numbers tell a tale of two Australias as the bickering continues over the national COVID strategy. Plus, the case for board diversity.

As more of Australia goes into lockdown, the RBA is maintaining what some are describing as a 'bizarrely' optimistic view of the recovery. Plus, a weird jobs report and the OG gold standard.

Despite the lockdowns, businesses and consumers are clinging to vaccine hope. Plus, the IPCC's Code Red, US infrastructure and China's billionaires.

Guided by the Doherty Institute modelling, National Cabinet has outlined the path out, but much is still uncertain. Plus, can cash incentives work for vaccinations and the rise of buy now pay later. Apologies for the audio on this one, we had some technical difficulties.

Base effects are starting to show up as inflation spikes in Australia. But with Delta ravaging the Australian and world economies, is inflation the least of our concerns? Plus, UK's Freedom Day two weeks on.

The shut down of the construction industry is another hammer blow to the NSW economy. Are policymakers doing enough to soften the impact? Plus, vaccine hesitancy and we ask if hosting the Olympics is worth it.

Starting local then going global, we talk about the economic cost of the latest lockdowns before doing some virtual economic tourism taking in the G20 finance conference in Venice, climate change, the latest on global inflation and the value of mRNA vaccines.

The government announces its four phase plan to return to a kind of normal. Will it work? Plus, lockdowns depress confidence and jobs, more on the global minimum company tax and the RBA begins to taper stimulus.

With almost half of Australia's population plunged back into lockdown as the Delta variant spreads, do we need to revise the rosy forecasts from earlier in the year for pandemic recovery? Plus, a job vacancy boom, house prices keep going and European tourism.

Australia's unemployment rate has fallen to 5.1%, below the pre-pandemic level, and approaching a 'four in front of it', the target level for the government. So what's next for policy and will wage growth follow? Plus, inflation comes roaring back in the US and an Australia-UK free trade deal.

An end to the era of globalisation has led to developing countries once again falling behind. As the costs of fragmentation become apparent, should a small open economy be doing more to bring back global trade? Plus, continuing resilience in the jobs market, continuing weakness in overall growth, and higher for longer rates in the US.

Job vacancies are at an all-time high, yet there is still slack in the labour market. Is the economy getting worse at matching workers to jobs? Plus, confidence slips back, the G7 agrees to a global minimum tax and is Biden's infrastructure package a stimulus bridge too far.

Australia's economy is now larger than it was pre-pandemic but the slow rollout of the vaccine continues to threaten the recovery. We dig into the latest GDP numbers and ask if we need more incentives for people to get jabbed. Plus, house prices, the Victorian lockdown and the RBA says watch this space.

Global supply chains are breaking down with not enough capacity to meet demand for everything from semiconductors to furniture. What is going on and will it lead to an outbreak in inflation? Plus, the IMF's plan to end the COVID-19 pandemic.

Unemployment keeps ticking down but wages still aren't moving. So is the relationship between unemployment and inflation broken? Plus, the latest confidence numbers, productivity in the care economy and BitCoin's wild ride.

This year's budget embeds the fiscal revolution that began last year. We look at what's in this big spending budget and whether the debt is sustainable. Plus, the RBA's latest forecasts and US jobs disappoint. Apologies for Ivan's awful audio this week - we had some technical difficulties recording remotely.

We parse the latest statements of the RBA and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen for hidden meaning on the recovery of the economy. Plus, house prices, a budget preview and sin taxes.

Mark says Treasurer Frydenberg has found the new fiscal religion on debt and deficits, plus weak inflation, jobs come off as JobKeeper ends and the latest from our own Director Sentiment Index.

Digital money is hot and central bankers want in. What is a central bank digital currency, how would it work and how would it be different from cryptocurrencies? Plus, more good news on the jobs front and what the European Super League proposal says about the global economy.

The vaccine rollout troubles continue as the government abandons its target. Is it time to downgrade forecasts? Will Australia be cut off from the world? And are we getting our risk calculus wrong? Plus, the latest confidence and jobs numbers.

The Australian property market is once again off to the races. What's driving it? What, if anything, should policymakers do about it? And will Ivan ever be able to afford a nice home?

Plus, more trouble for the vaccine rollout, new IMF forecasts for global recovery and Biden's plan to have multinationals pay more tax.

(We are a little late getting this one out, we recorded prior to the new advice on the Astra Zeneca vaccine for under 50s.)

Global shipping is gummed up again with Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, renewed pirate attacks in the Gulf of Aden, and drought affecting the Panama canal. But could it get even worse? Plus, inflation picks up again in Australia and retail sales remain stagnant.

We take a break from regular programming this week to bring you a conversation from the Australian Governance Summit between Mark and Harvard Business School professor Rebecca Henderson on her book Reimagining Capitalism in a World on Fire.

With fears it may once again be on the rise, we talk all things inflation. What causes it? Why is it bad? And is it coming back? Plus, how much slack is left in the labour market and has the fun stopped for GameStop?

Australia is a global laggard on the vaccine rollout and is well off the pace to meet its targets. So what is the rest of the world getting right, what are we getting wrong and should we be concerned? Plus, employment gets back to pre-pandemic levels and what is a non-fungible token?