Explorez tous les épisodes du podcast The David McWilliams Podcast

Is rapid population growth a sign of economic strength, or the trigger for future crises? This week, we explore how shifting demographics are reshaping economies worldwide, from booming immigration and urban congestion to strained infrastructure and rising political tensions. As governments push for economic expansion, many are running their economies just too close to the sun; fuelling population growth without the capacity to support it. We examine how this plays out in housing shortages, overwhelmed public services, and the widening gap between GDP figures and real quality of life. What happens when a country outgrows its own ability to function?

From Europe to North America and beyond, we look at the consequences of failing to plan for demographic change, and what lessons history has to offer before today’s booming economies become tomorrow’s cautionary tales.

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China's DeepSeek has done what it does best, it's made a better copy of an American product. Deepseek has disrupted the markets this week and is almost outperforming OpenAI while spending as little as one hundredth of the cost. In a world where Silicon Valley has long operated under a “winner takes all” model, DeepSeek’s breakthrough proves that sheer financial power is no longer the defining factor in technological supremacy. It's more than a story about AI, it's about geopolitics, economic power shifts, and how constraints fuel innovation. As the U.S. scrambles to maintain dominance, pouring billions into AI infrastructure and tightening restrictions on China, has it inadvertently made its biggest competitor stronger? What does this mean for Nvidia, OpenAI, and the entire American tech ecosystem? And if AI can now be built cheaper and faster, why are U.S. companies still demanding more money, more energy, and more control?

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Happy New Year! Join us as we nurse our hangovers and take a ride through 2024’s greatest hits—economic and otherwise. From the explosive surge of Swiftonomics (yes, Taylor Swift boosted Ireland’s GDP!) to the surprising resilience of the Centrist Dad Economy, we unpack the stories that defined the year. Did Apple’s €13 billion tax debacle teach us anything? Are we more Boston or Berlin as we outpace Europe in growth? And how did a housing market on the brink coexist with 160,000 fans belting out Anti-Hero in Croke Park? It’s Ireland’s year of contradictions, featuring corporate tax quirks, and the existential debate about whether we’re Connecticut with bad weather or the EU’s cheekiest tax haven. We’re diving deep into the economics of everything that happened this year. 

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This week, we delve into the perennial question: Why do so few students depart school with a genuine love for mathematics? Is the way we teach maths the crux of the issue? Joining us is Colm O'Regan, host of his own Mathematics podcast, to show us the story behind the numbers. Maths, essential across various studies including economics, embodies the evolution of human thought, guiding us from guesswork to certainty - yet is widely loathed by students. It begs the question, does our approach to teaching often lack the engaging storytelling found in other subjects like history and English? Could this be what's hindering students' connections with maths? From the Ishango Bone to Pythagoras, the history of the subject is worth telling, so that's exactly what we're doing.

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Next week, the war in Ukraine enters its third year. and last week Putin's regime murdered its only real political opponent, Alexi Navalny. Putin has transitioned from electoral manipulation to murder. This week, we chat with Alexander Kabonovsky, the podcast's resident go-to for all things Russian. Together, we explore the impact of Navalny's murder, Putin's position, and the uncertain path ahead for the ongoing conflict. As the situation in Russia rapidly deteriorates, drawing unsettling parallels to the dark era of Stalinist terror, we assess what this means for Europe and geo-politics in general.

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Amidst the backdrop of the hottest January on record, surpassing pre-industrial averages by 1.6 degrees, join us this week as we embark on a gripping exploration of the economic history and pre-industrial climate change. From the medieval era to the tumultuous 17th century, we delve deep into its profound impacts on society, economy, and religion. We use the poignant saga of the Pont d’Avignon as our starting point. A 13th-century bridge succumbed to the fury of climate-induced mass flooding, while Europe reeled under the devastation of the 17th-century mini-ice age, that claimed over 500,000 lives in Ireland alone. The economy suffered as agricultural yields plummeted and food prices soared, leading to famine. Calamity bred religious fervor, with moralistic prohibitions and the rise of witch-hunts, while war ravaged the continent, targeting religious minorities, driving mass migrations. In the 17th century, climate change wasn't just a matter of inconvenience—it was a catalyst for chaos and conflict. History tells us we ignore climate change at our peril.

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With the election year in full swing, we're shining a spotlight on the resurgence of the Kennedys. Joining us to navigate the intriguing rise of independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy is the economic and political aficionado Pippa Malmgren. We ponder the origins of this surprising surge and its underreported nature amidst swirling allegations, anti-pharma sentiments, and vaccine skepticism. We contemplate whether RFK could embody a voice that resonates with the American people and discuss what awaits the land of opportunity on the road to November. With tensions escalating and Kennedy finding himself in some polls, polling similarly to Trump and Biden, the drama and anticipation of the 2024 Election will only intensify, prompting us to explore the allure of the underdog.

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In this week's episode, we delve deep into the dynamic forces shaping our global economy, from seismic demographic shifts to the transformative rise of artificial intelligence and the ascendance of Asia on the world stage. Once again, we welcome the esteemed Martin Wolf, whose unparalleled insights shed light on the intricate intersections of these pressing global challenges. Together, we attempt to navigate the evolving landscape of demography, examining its implications for societal structures and economic paradigms. Don't miss this episode as we confront the hidden forces driving our world economy.

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Almost eight years later, we shine a spotlight on Brexit and how it has come to the forefront of public discourse. We explore the destructive impact of populism on stable democracies, as evidenced by the Brexit saga. The discussion delves into the false premises that underpinned Brexit, examining how it damaged the UK's economic relationship and threatened domestic stability. We are joined by economist and Financial Times columnist, Martin Wolf, who offers us a new perspective on navigating UK politics in the aftermath. Don't miss this insightful episode as we explore the pressing issues that make the UK's post-Brexit journey a critical focal point.

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For the second installment in our Milei series, we delve into what's causing the political gender divergence within Gen Z. We are joined this week by John Burn-Murdoch, who shares his insights on what has caused the split. Young men are swinging Conservative and you women are moved Liberal. Across the globe, from the US to South Korea, a profound split has emerged, shaping political affiliations, and societal norms, and even influencing electoral outcomes. We discuss the consequences of this divide, examining its impact on issues ranging from gender equality to immigration. Join us as we navigate the complexities of Gen Z's ideological landscape, shedding light on a trend that could have lasting implications for the future.

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This week, we explore the intersection between inflation, public sector pay and productivity, or value for money to the taxpayers who pay the public sector salaries. First, we need a good public service, second workers should be well paid, but third, is there any way of linking public sector wage increases to productivity? If not, then let's be honest with society and say so. We look at Baumol's theory of costs, a bit of old-fashioned insider/outsider dynamics, and the role of multinationals in dragging up public sector wage demands, even though there may be a productivity mismatch. Have our services improved at the same rate as overall wages in the public sector? This episode is a national-scale exploration that's sure to leave you thinking.

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Dublin, like many cities, needs to make a decision to reinvent itself for the 21st century. It's a battle between the past and the future. There is no urban planning manual anywhere in the world that argues for more cars in towns and cities. In urban transport, cities future is fewer cars, not more.

Dun Laoighaire - my hometown - is a microcosm of every modern town in Western society, and its plans for pedestrianisation could change the town dramatically. Returning the emphasis from the car to the pedestrian is the answer to creating a more vibrant community, but how do we go about it? Can adopting a road pricing mechanism, inspired by innovations like Uber's surge pricing, motivate behavioral shifts and propel Ireland into a forward-thinking future? Cities and towns are sensitive ecosystems, they need to breathe; they can't be choked.

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Last week at Davos, Javier Milei, delivered a fiery speech that spared no one, from Keynesians to Globalists. Despite some controversy, Milei's libertarian ideas are gaining traction both in Argentina and beyond. As people grapple with economic and geopolitical challenges, they are increasingly drawn to solutions that Milei proposes.

In this episode, we explore Milei's speech, which delves into the history of economic growth where he attributes much of it to the principles of free-market capitalism. Regardless of whether one agrees with Milei's thesis, the importance lies in fostering a dialogue around these ideas. Join us as we kick off a series where we dive deeper into the factors contributing to the global explosion in growth, using Milei's speech as a thought-provoking starting point.

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As the war in Ukraine drags on, how do we untangle the web of money, power, and manipulation at the heart of Vladimir Putin’s regime? In this Christmas special, we revisit one of our most revealing episodes with financier and political activist Bill Browder, recorded in May 2022.From the origins of Putin’s rise to power to the oligarchs’ uneasy pact and the enduring corruption within Russia, Browder offers an insider’s perspective on the forces driving this geopolitical chess game. With haunting parallels to today’s events, we explore the enduring dynamics of Russia’s kleptocracy, the Western response to the war in Ukraine, and the grim calculus of prolonging conflict to pursue regime change. What’s the West’s real endgame? Can sanctions and military aid shift the balance, or are we destined for years of grinding stalemate? And what does it say about global power when wars are dictated not just by ideology, but by who controls the money?

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Ireland wasn't ready for the economic success we have experienced over the past 40 years. However, with success comes more social responsibility that the Irish government hasn't been able to meet. We weren't ready for the combination of a population boom, multinational investment, income to rise, and housing demand to increase as a result. We are now at an inflection point. We have no choice but to reframe our society and how we look at housing, the other option is social chaos.

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The Houthis - who are they? And why are the US and UK bombing them? What has it got to do with your world? America is keeping shipping routes open and that's exactly what the Houthis seek to destroy. The Houthis occupy one of the maritime world's most sensitive trading chokepoints, and they understand this. 90% of the world's traded goods are shipped by sea: stop shipping and you stop the global economy. This week we talk about all this and the impact on Europe.

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Join us as we explore the connection between culture, language, and economic growth. We are joined by John Burn-Murdoch and his data-driven expertise as we discuss how the West could be 'talking itself into decline.' The shift in culture and language that began around the 16th century has become increasingly relevant as books have become digitized - particularly tracking words related to progress and positivity could be another way to explain economic growth trends and cultural shifts.

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January if often the time for looking ahead, but all too often, we don’t look far enough. Today’s episode is about looking at the end of a 40 year cycle and the start of a new longterm economic reality!

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2024 is going to be a monumental year - 50% of the planet that is eligible to vote is going to vote! But the real power lies in the media: who tells the stories, who controls the medium and the message. This will be the year of a full on war between micromedia, like podcasts etc, and macromedia, like TV. In this battle there is only one winner. It's called economic and technological disruption.

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We start today by breaking down the mathematical formula to economic growth before moving to my best reads of 2023… and a sneak peek of a book coming out in 2024!

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What a year it’s been! On the last episode of the year we take a look back at the incredible year (sometimes good, sometimes bad) that 2023 has been across the world.

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Happy Christmas! Here's a fascinating discussion that I've had with Naomi Klein this year that covers a wide range of political topics - something to ponder on as we all take a well deserved break!

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As I spend my last night in Los Angeles, I’ve come to appreciate the drive of this city where so many creative endeavours are born. Hollywood is the core of America’s soft power - What story will it tell next?

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Live from Las Vegas we talk about 2024, the upcoming American election, falls in global interest rates, potential American isolationism, the Gutenberg Bible, today’s AI boom - and where it is all taking us!

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As we hurtle toward an AI-driven future, what’s really at stake? In this Christmas Eve special, we revisit our conversation with Martin Wolf, the Financial Times’ chief economics correspondent, and dive into his predictions for the seismic changes reshaping our world.From the rise of AI and its potential to dismantle the middle class, to the demographic time bombs ticking in the West and sub-Saharan Africa, we explore how technology, climate, and population shifts are redefining economics and geopolitics. Are we headed for a new era of prosperity, or a feudal system ruled by techno-overlords? And what role does socialising the means of production play in protecting democracy? Happy Christmas!

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Time to eat humble pie? Despite us saying last year it that Bitcoin was a BS idea, its value has risen over 150% this year! What’s behind the surge? We talk about Notorious B.I.G, Benjamin Franklin, the wisdom of Charlie Munger and the fact that Bitcoin is something, but it ain't money! But where from here? Should we revise our stance on the technology? Joins us to find out!

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Ireland has a massive deficit in public infrastructure and a massive surplus in the public finances. Economists are advising the government to save on the basis that saving is "good". But not spending when we have an increasing immigrant population is a recipe for social chaos. This podcast is celebration of spending. Ireland's tax base is set up to generate surplus, so spend the money.

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Putin's back, swanning around the Gulf visiting Saudi Arabia and the UAE, telling the world that he was never really away. Things are going his way. Meanwhile America, is swamped with recurring geopolitical crises and its role as the global top dog is under enormous pressure as we head into an election year. 2024 could be the year of a global infection point, we set out the issues.

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We mark the death of Shane MacGowan by looking at the Irish Diaspora, particularly in England and its impact on English popular culture. From there we look at Ireland's relationship with its Tribe abroad and from there, we imagine what a 2nd Irish Republic will look like (which will happen because it's necessary) and the role of the diaspora in this thinking.

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Liberal democracy in the western world is all too often taken for granted. But its enemies, nationalists, theocrats, Marxists and isolationists - are rising. Will Israel become a "wedge" issue? Also, why we should defend it and what the erosion of commercial liberalism in China is doing to its economic performance. What does 2024 has in store for the best political idea we've come up with yet, liberal democracy.

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After the riot, the analysis. We look at the power of crowds, why crowds love destruction, why they grow and how they the dissipate. Plus, of course the economics of the Irish far right, we look at the numbers, who are they and why they are here to stay.

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From tantric sex expert to President, Javier “chainsaw” Melei is a new type of populist - and anarchy-capitalist one! What does this mean, is this guy libertarianism’s answer to Che Guevara? And where will “dollarisation” take this beautiful but profoundly dysfunctional country?

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The board of Chat GPT may be firing its CEO, but that doesn't mean this revolution is slowing down. A whistle wind tour from the dawn of time with Stanley Kubrick, to Gutenberg in 1453, and up to now, we look at the economics of innovation. With AI are we now facing catastrophe or a creative surge? Listen up, as we explore the economics of AI.

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Anti-semitism, inflation, threats to democracy, despotic leaders and fragile governments, if you thought it was today, its is - but hold on. It's happened before... This very month 100 years ago, German hyperinflation peaked, Adolf Hitler announced himself with a putsch and anti-semitism was rife. History is repeating itself, or is it? Join us on this epic journey back in time to see what we can learn and whether we can apply any historical remedies to today's global problems.

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Today we kick-off a new three part series that looks at the state of the big economic blocs in the world. Part one is the state of the US as it enters an election year. Plus we scan the UK and the EU, briefly. We call this world the NATO-sphere for obvious reasons. Next up in this series, we will deal with the impact of AI and third we will look at China the link between economics & liberalism. Our first conversation is around US economy, the rate of interest, inflation and the miracle of recent US economic performance, which is challenging our understanding of macroeconomics.

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Was 2024 the turning point for our economic, political, and cultural future? In this episode, we break down the top 10 seismic shifts that reshaped the world. From Trump’s polarising return and America’s brotocracy taking center stage, to the collapse of the Assad regime and the waning dominance of Germany and France, the global order is tilting. Why is Italy’s Meloni now Europe’s most compelling leader? What does China’s deflation signal for the rest of us? And how has Ireland quietly positioned itself as a winner in the chaos? These are the moments that matter, and this is the year that changes everything.

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How is the Israeli tail is wagging the American dog? America's election is exactly one year from now and Joe Biden is in bed with Netanyahu, but his own party, the Democratic Party is deeply divided by his embrace of Israel. He has given Netanyahu his blessing, but he can't influence the outcome in Gaza. This emasculation, combined with the end of the 0% interest rate days where previous "stars" are falling to earth - WeWork goes bankrupt, NFTs blinds people and SBF gets convicted - and we have a perfect storm, economically and geo-politically, raging. All this before we talk about Donald Trump. Strap up!

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John and I sat down at the Watergate Theatre in Kilkenny and had a natter, covering all classes of topics from economics, to James Joyce, WB Yeats and a whole host of other topics, focussing on Europe's economic policy dilemmas.  We chatting about unconventional thinkers, how the artist & the entrepreneur are much more similar than meets the eye, both being unconventional dissenters.

And If you’d like to hear my full TED talk on unconventional thinking, simply click here: https://www.ted.com/talks/david_mcwilliams_the_power_of_unconventional_thinking

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We go way back to 70 AD before coming bak to today. Demography demands a two state solution, and the Israeli's know this. But a trap has been set for America, into which it is sliding. The Kremlin has its "wedge' issue and the battle for the West continues, Putin can't believe his luck.

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It's not world shattering to announce that there is a pay discrepancy between men and women - but it's important to note that this gap has been maintained despite numerous laws and financial requirements that have been implemented to remove said gap. So why is is still here? Join us as we talk about the underlying issues that laws can't address!

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In the third instalment of our series we explain the period of 1993 to the present in the Middle East. Why the peace accords floundered, the impact of 9/11, why the middle ground gave way to the extremes, and the rise of the Israeli tech industry. Don’t miss it!

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The commercial property market is struggling to swallow the interest rate hikes aiming to bring down inflation. Can the mass building of the last decade, built on the back of very low interest rate, survive this new economic landscape? 

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Part 2 of our overview of the Israel-Palestinian conflict brings us from the Six Day War to the Oslo Accords. Key things here are the change in the image of Isreal in the world imagination from defiant fighter to oppressive bully and the emergence of Iran, fundamentalism, settlers and economic stagnation. We end with Soviet Jewry emigrating to Israel, the Palestinian Intifada, chaos in Lebanon and the road to, a short-lived, peace.

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The budget, despite all the posturing, should make you be afraid, very afraid. It reveals a complete lack of Leaving Cert economic thinking. Today we interrogate just one aspect to see if there is any logical and consistent economic heft behind all the political tinkering. We look at housing. Stay tuned for the verdict!

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To understand where we are, you have to appreciate the history - economic, political and social - and that’s what we’re setting out to do! Starting in Dorset St Dublin in 1904 with Leopold Bloom in Jame Joyce's Ulysses, we explore the history of Zionism and make our way from Bloom to the 6 Day War 1967. Stay tuned for part 2 next week when try to bring events from then up to the the current catastrophe.

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We're in North America this week thinking about the US economy. How come the USA is creating so many jobs, why are interest rates not biting, does macroeconomics have to have a massive re-think about monetary policy and if so, what does this all mean for you? Is the Fed flunking it?

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Ireland’s economy is booming, bolstered by its close ties to the American economic engine. But beneath the shine of GDP growth and high living standards lies a stark reality: a growing gap between standard of living and quality of life. Why are Irish families delaying children longer than any other in Europe? Why hasn’t Ireland used its wealth to solve fundamental issues like childcare, housing, and commutes? In this episode, we explore the divergence between the U.S. and European economies, shedding light on why Ireland is an economic outlier. Drawing on research from Money: A Story of Humanity, we discuss the driving forces behind American innovation, Europe’s struggles with productivity, and how Ireland’s successes mask deeper societal challenges. From satellite images of city luminescence to Belgium’s clever solutions to vacant housing, this is a conversation about the paradox of prosperity—and what happens when governments fail to plan for the future.

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Brexit was supposed to be simple, that was the promise! The reality however is a world of complex costs & frictions which has backed the UK into a structural cul-de-sac. Where does it go from here?

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Long term interest rates spiked up in September. This will have an impact. Mortgage rates everywhere are up dramatically. Could it be time for the debt crunch? We know that there’s a delay between raising rates and the impact of those new rates, but no one knows exactly how long - while the economy appears to be doing fine, are we missing something, something big? A day of debt reckoning?

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How does one of the richest economy of the 19th century blow it? What are the lessons for the rest of us? As the saying goes, “The road to ruin is shorter than you think”. How does a good country go bad? And now that Argentina has completely come off the rails, can its be saved or is it about to become a "failed state"? If it does, could the Argentinean virus spread to the rest of Latin America?

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