Explorez tous les épisodes du podcast The Contrarian Investor Podcast

Meb Faber of Cambria Investments joins the podcast to discuss the state of markets and the economy, the need to diversify internationally, and why dividends are not a good thing.

This podcast episoode was recorded Monday, June 2 and was made available to premium subscribers exclusively the following day. More membership on premium subscriptions is available here.

Content Highlights

• What are Meb Faber's view of the economy and markets? (1:34);

• His most contrarian take: non-US stocks are a bargain. The outperformance of US equities versus international peers is due for reversal (3:37);

• International value stocks are a particularly promising area (9:56);

• Artificial intelligence (16:29);

• Background on the guest (28:18);

• Another contrarian take: dividends are overrated (33:59);

• Tariffs: no cause for concern (39:57).

More Information on the Guest

• Website: MebFaber.com and CambriaInvestments.com

• Twitter/X: MebFaber

• Podcast: The Meb Faber Show (iTunes link)

• YouTube: The Meb Faber Show

Petra Bakosova of Hull Tactical joins the podcast to discuss her views on the Federal Reserve, labor markets, the impact of tariffs, and what this all means for financial markets.

This podcast episode was recorded on May 8, 2025. An 'actionable highlights' reel was published that day for premium subscribers, who also received the full podcast episode the day after recording. Sign up for premium membership packages on our Substack.

Content Highlights

• The Fed last week expressed concerns about risks in the labor market. There is nothing in any of the data that bears this out yet. However, there are other ways that tariffs have had an effect (3:36);

• Hull Tactical has been "close to 100% invested" and views this as a good time to be active allocating risk (6:14);

• Background on the guest (10:28);

• Philosophy behind Hull Tactical's investment strategy (12:45);

• The danger of 'overfitting': Data will confess to anything if you torture it long enough. How to guard against it (16:51);

• Blackjack and how it inspired the strategy (21:31).

More on the Guest

• Websites: HullTactical.com, HullTacticalFunds.com;

• Twitter/X: @HullTactical.

Farid Guindo of Drill Capital Management joins the podcast to discuss his bullish views on natural gas -- not the commodity itself, necessarily, but its application to meet future energy demand. Content Highlights

• Natural gas as the energy of the future even as prices of the commodity itself plummet (1:08);
• Oil exploration is becoming increasingly difficult, expensive, and risky (2:58);
• The 'John D. Rockefeller moment' for natural gas (5:46);
• What role can nuclear energy play? (16:03);
• In natural gas, there will be winners and losers, however... (18:00);
• Where are the best opportunities? (19:51);
• Background on the guest (28:39);
• How will the new presidential administration (Trump 2.0) impact things? (41:38).

Jonathan Browne, portfolio manager at RiverNorth Capital, joins the podcast to discuss investment opportunities in municipal bonds, specifically through the closed-end fund structure.   This podcast episode was made available to premium subscribers the day after recording and without ads or announcements. To become a premium subscriber, visit our Substack. Content Highlights

• Quick primer on closed-end funds and their difference with mutual funds and ETFs (1:18);
• Municipal bonds and what to look for there (16:01);
• What kind of yield can investors expect from this asset class? (23:31);
• Background on the guest (26:50);
• Rising interest rates and inflation are certainly a risk for muni bonds, but the risk/reward is set up constructively... (30:59);
• Muni closed-end funds: a contrarian pick (37:28)

For more on the guest, visit the website RiverNorth.com

https://contrarianpod.com/content/podcasts/season6/us-election-black-swans-chances-political-violence/Dr. Mike Blyth of risk services company Sigma7, joins the podcast to discuss 'unknown unknowns' facing next week's US election.

Blyth is a career national security professional, having worked for US and British civil and military operations globally.

This podcast episode was recorded on Oct. 30, 2024 and was made available to premium subscribers that day. To learn about premium subscription options, visit our Substack. Content Highlights

• Background on the guest and why he is qualified to speak of all things national and international security (1:42);
• Main concerns entering the election. External and internal agitators have raised the risk of political violence (4:57);
• Gaming out the various scenarios. Almost all involve violence, especially if former President Donald Trump is not elected (7:26);
• The narrative on social media and elsewhere is consistent with what typically presages violence. "It's a tinderbox. We're waiting for the flame to be lit" (11:26);
• What parts of the economy might be most at risk and which might be more resilient (16:49);
• What about geopolitical risks? (20:42).

For more about the guest, visit the website S7risk.com.

Marc Chapman of Bannockburn Global Forex rejoins the podcast to discuss all things US election and the impact a Trump victory would have on economics and financial markets.

This podcast episode was recorded Monday, Oct. 28, 2024 and was made available for premium subscribers that same day. More information about premium subscriptions is available on our Substack. Content Highlights

• The impact of a Trump victory next Tuesday is seen as greater as the impact of a Harris victory. What this means for markets and the economy (2:11);
• What if Trump doesn't win? That has become the contrarian take (3:45);
• How it all might affect Mexico, the US' largest trading partner (5:40);
• The US-Canada-Mexico free trade agreement is up for review next year. Expect more concessions from Mexico regardless of who's in the White House (and Congress) (12:22);
• However the outlook is not all bad for all Mexican securities... (15:40);
• Concerns Trump will try to limit the Federal Reserve's independence (19:38);
• Don't overlook the possibility of a recession early in the next president's term (25:44);
• Trump victory may lead to more mergers and acquisitions (26:50).

More From the Guest

• Website: MarcToMarket.com;
• X: @marcmakingsense.

Flip Pidot, founder of American Civics Exchange, joins the podcast to discuss trends in polling and prediction markets and why these are increasingly pointing to victory for Donald Trump -- and a Republican sweep of Congress.

This podcast episode was recorded on Oct. 22, 2024, and made available for premium subscribers that same day -- without ads or announcements. More information on premium membership options is available on our Substack page. Content Highlights

• What started as a toss-up has quickly moved to resounding victory for Trump (1:38);
• About $40 million-worth of pro-Trump bets have flooded prediction markets in recent weeks (4:55);
• Early vote data is also clearly favoring Trump (12:58);
• Background on the guest (23:05);
• If the outcome of the election is close, either side is likely to immediately challenge the results in court (34:30);
• Fortunately, the guest views the likelihood as remote (40:28)

More From the Guest

• Website: AmCiv.com;
• X: @FlipPidot;
• Prediction/polling aggregator: TheSupermodel.com.

Tony Greer of TG Macro joins the podcast to discuss his bullish view on industrial commodities, especially oil, AI, the upcoming presidential election, and more.

This podcast was recorded on Wednesday, Sept. 25, 2024, and was made available to premium subscribers the next day. More information on premium subscriptions is available on our Substack.

There are a few points in this episode where adult language is used. Listener discretion is advised.

Content Highlights

• Why energy commodities, precious and base metals are all set up to rally (1:31);
• China's stimulus package boosted industrial metals. The bounce should not be limited to the short term... (4:57);
• There are a number of ways to express the 'long commodities' trade. ETFs may be the simplest... (8:59)
• The bullish case for uranium (10:37);
• Don't fade the AI story (14:20);
• The inevitable cryptocurrency discussion (17:04);
• Background on the guest (22:30);
• Listener question: What's the inflection point for a move higher in industrial commodities? (26:10);
• Election discussion (28:17).

More Information on the Guest

• Website: TgMacro.com;
• Twitter/X: @TgMacro;
• Substack: @TgMacro.

Hear podcast episodes without ads and before regular listeners by subscribing to our premium offering.

Megan Gorman joins the podcast to discuss her book 'All the Presidents' Money; How the Men Who Governed America Governed Their Money,' in an effort to locate the contrarian investors. There are several, led by Gerald Ford. The guest also discusses the investments of year's presidential and vice presidential candidates.

Content Highlights

• The most contrarian investor among US presidents? Gerald Ford, the man who pioneered sitting on corporate boards and the presidential speaker circuit (1:24);
• Perhaps unsurprisingly US presidents were quite conservative with their investments, Ford included... (6:37);
• Many presidential investments were also contrarian by avoiding (individual) public equities (11:04);
• Franklin D. Roosevelt was one of several presidents who entered the White House as wealthy individuals -- and blew some of it by failing to perform basic due diligence (15:51);
• Another oft-overlooked president, Calvin Coolidge, supplies a classic example of mis-timing the market... (21:11);
• What we know about the investments of this year's candidates for president and vice president (25:52);
• Another very unsuccessful investor: Ulysses S. Grant. One of the most successful: George Washington (37:14);
• Presidents probably don't need to own individual stocks. Vice President Kamala Harris exemplifies this (47:18)

More Information on the Guest

• Website: AllThePresidentsMoney.com;
• X: @Megan_E_Gorman.

James Fishback, founder of Azoria Partners, joins the podcast to discuss the Fed's shift in monetary policy, opportunities afforded by another Trump administration, why AI hype is real, and a host of other issues.

This podcast was recorded on Sept. 4 and was being made available to premium subscribers that same day. More information about premium subscriptions is available here.

NB: The guest is outspoken on certain political beliefs discussed here. These views are not necessarily shared by the host or the Contrarian Investor Podcast more generally.
  Content Highlights

• The Federal Reserve is expect to cut 200 basis points off of interest rates when all is said and done. The reality should fall well short of that measure... (1:37);
• The US is economy growing in aggregate. Pain points are felt among lower socio-economic classes (4:44);
• The major change will not come from a major shift in monetary policy but what happens fiscally, with the November election (9:16);
• How to trade a Republican sweep? There's an acronym: T-R-U-M-P (10:54);
• Many companies have taken advantage of cheap labor supplied by illegal immigration. Their stocks will suffer once this is rolled back... (15:31);
• AI is real. Productivity gains will be massive (17:44);
• Crypto discussion. The best opportunity for bulls may to bet on lower volatility for Bitcoin... (22:47);
• Background on the guest (28:33);
• Azoria's first ETF will be called the Meritocracy Fund. The strategy (33:38);
• Another opportunity: Argentina (43:18)

More Information on the Guest

• Website: AzoriaPartners.com;
• Substack: HeadofMacro.com;
• X: @j_fishback;
• LinkedIn: Azoria-Partners

Colin White of Verecan Capital Management joins the podcast to discuss his views on the economy and why he considers the likelihood of a 'soft landing' to have increased...

This podcast was recorded on Wednesday, Aug. 14, 2024 and made available for premium subscribers the following day. More information on premium subscriptions is avalailable on our Substack page..

Content Highlights

• Economic indicators are pointing to increased chances of a 'soft landing'... (1:10);
• The Federal Reserve (and other central banks) have 'bullets in their gun' in the form of interest rate cuts, should the need arise. Another reason for confidence (3:27);
• Employment numbers are the most important datapoint to watch right now (6:41);
• The Age of Finfluencers and dangers it has wrought (14:32);
• Central banks have a responsibility to act in the best interests of the general public. If they stray from that responsibility, the structure that governs central banks can change (19:29);
• Background on the guest (23:31);
• No, real estate is not always a good investment (34:11);
• AI discussion (37:41).

More on the Guest:

• Website: Verecan.com;
• Podcast: Barenaked Money;
• LinkedIn.

Chad Olivier of Baton Rouge, La.-based The Olivier Group joins the podcast to discuss his view of markets and why he is bullish about bonds and technology stocks.

This podcast episode was recorded July 30, 2024 and was made available to premium subscribers the following day -- without ads or announcements. More information on premium subscriptions is available here.

Content Highlights

• The view of the bond market has changed with the Fed (1:18)
• The Olivier Group started adding bond exposure through ETFs in the first quarter and expects to add to it... (3:18);
• The 10-year yield should drop to the 3% range "by this time next year" (4:43);
• Small caps have recovered lately but the guest is less bullish there (9:31);
• Technology stocks are much better positioned than in previous cycles (10:56);
• Municipal bonds may also present an opportunity... (15:41);
• Background on the guest (20:05);
• Oil markets could present another opportunity, especially large cap, dividend-paying companies (23:58);
• The political outlook and its impact on markets (25:51).

For more information on the guest visit the website OlivierGroup.com.

Axel Merk of Merk Investments rejoins the podcast to discuss his view that Trump's tariffs have fundamentally unbalanced the global financial order. This has created real risks, but also opportunities…

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This podcast was recorded on Wednesday, April 30 and was made available to premium subscribers the following day. More information on premium subscriptions is available here.

Content Highlights

• The 'plumbing' of the global financial system has been upended as a result of tariffs (1:35);

• China will not dump all their US Treasury holdings overnight. But tariffs will impact future flows. A fragmentation away from US dollar-denominated assets is likely (6:50);

• Are tariffs inflationary or deflationary? They're a supply shock: stagflation is the result (10:42);

• If global trade is impeded and ultimately curtailed, how does this not end badly for economic growth? It will require a mental change from the existing environment. Fortunately, history has ample examples of this transition… (16:19);

• Europe and China may face trouble in this new world order. So will Turkey. "There will be more tension" (24:45);

• The case for gold and gold miners (32:16);

• Does the US enter recession this year? Economic numbers are going to be distorted, so it may not matter. But the spike in imports heading into tariffs will almost certainly create inventory build-up… (37:18).

More on the Guest

• Website: MerkInvestments.com;

• Twitter/X: @AxelMerk

• LinkedIn post referenced in the podcast.

Dana Samuelson, president of the American Gold Exchange, joins the Contrarian Investor Podcast to discuss why gold prices are set up to rally further -- even after a 20% rise so far this year.

This podcast episode was recorded on Friday, July 19. 2024 and made available to premium subscribers the following business day. For information on becoming a premium subscriber -- and the host of other benefits it involves -- visit our Substack.

Content Highlights

• Gold is trading right near all-time highs. Can there really be more room for upside? (1:48);
• One thing missing from the equation for still higher gold prices is interest rate cuts... (3:36);
• Another thing missing is fear in the market (5:07);
• Gold has rallied 20% so far this year. A Fed rate cut will supply another 10%. $3000/oz. gold is in sight... (8:36);
• What of the argument that there's no tangible use for gold? (11:20);
• Why gold coins are preferable to bars (14:30);
• Background on the guest (19:39);
• Quarters and dimes vintage 1964 are 90% silver (26:40);
• View on digital currencies and Bitcoin. There is a place for it... (33:20);
• How much of one's portfolio should be earmarked for gold and precious metals? (37:15)

More Information on the Guest

• Twitter/X: @DanaSamuelson99;
• LinkedIn: @American-Gold-Exchange-Inc;
• Website: AmerGold.com;
• YouTube: AmericanGoldExchangeAustin.

Darius Foroux, author of the upcoming book 'The Stoic Path to Wealth,' joined the podcast to discuss his, well, stoic approach to investing.

This podcast episode was recorded on Tuesday, June 25, 2024 and was made available to premium subscribers the following day -- without ads or announcements. For more information on premium subscriptions, visit our Substack.

Content Highlights

• How interest in philosophy rekindled his interest in investing after the great financial crisis (1:32);
• A brief introduction to stoicism, a 2,300 year-old philosophy that is distinct from cynicism (4:08);
• How to apply this to investing (6:14);
• Isn't investing in indexes just the best way to go? (12:38);
• The '90/10' portfolio allocation: 90% in the S&P 500, 10% in individual stocks (17:24);
• The Dutch Stripe, trades in Amsterdam and on Pink Sheets (18:06);
• Background on the guest (28:54);
• The guest's second individual stock holding. Listeners will have heard about this one (33:01);
• How does a stoic combat FOMO (41:41).

More Information on the Guest

• Website: DariusForoux.com;
• Twitter: @DariusForoux;
• Instagram: @DariusForoux;
• YouTube: @DariusForoux.

Not investment advice.

Leo Schmidt, founder of family office River Eddy Capital, rejoins the podcast to discuss his views on economy, markets, and where to invest capital in what may be a 'stagflation lite' environment.

This podcast episode was recorded on Friday, June 7, 2024 and made available to premium subscribers the following Monday. Visit the Substack or Supercast for more information about premium subscriptions.

Content Highlights

• "Labor markets are way too hot." There will be "no landing" (1:48);
• Non-farm payrolls came out much stronger than anticipated. What this says about the labor market (4:59);
• 'Stagflation lite' (8:31);
• Our views of credit creation are outdated. The shadow banking system has replaced commercial banks as the primary source of credit. What this means (11:59);
• The Federal Reserve probably needs to cut rates. Could they? Probably not -- this year (22:21);
• What does an investor do now? First up: Stocks that are AI/Nvidia (NVDA) plays. Celestica (CLS), Flex (FLEX), Sanmina (SANM), Jabil (JBL) (27:51);
• Pharma spin-outs: Haleon (HLN), Kenvue (KVUE), Organon (OGN), Viatris (VTRS) (31:54);
• Dollar stores, especially Dollar Tree (DLTR), are poised to outperform once there is an economic slowdown (39:07);
• The bullish case for pipeline companies (46:59).

Bob Elliott of Unlimited rejoins the podcast to discuss his view that stock markets are pricing in a lot of optimism that may not be based on economic realities...   This podcast episode was recorded on Tuesday, May 28, 2024 and made available to premium subscribers the following day. To become a premium subscriber, visit our Substack.

Content Highlights

• Stock markets are pricing in a lot of optimism. Just how unrealistic is that? (1:19);
• What is there to indicate the economy could slow this year or even next? (4:34);
• A recession may be years away rather than months under current conditions. But conditions, as we know, can change quickly... (8:58);
• There is a precedence to interest rates going up dramatically without it causing an immediate and dramatic entrenchment in economic growth (11:52);
• Tech stocks might be overvalued but comparisons to the dot-com bubble are unfair and inaccurate -- and may preclude a spectacular bust (16:10);
• Today's economic expansion is income-driven. Not a result of credit expansion (18:13);
• What kinds of indicators should investors study to spot a slowdown in this particular type of economic activity? (30:45);
• Regional banks are for the most part fairly priced at present... (35:50).

More Information on the Guest

• Website: UnlimitedFunds.com;
• Twitter: @BoBEUnlimited;
• YouTube: @BobEUnlimited.

Ayesha Tariq, founder of Macro Visor, rejoins the podcast to discuss her views on the economy, markets, and where investors should look for opportunities.

This episode was recorded on Tuesday, May 7 and made available to premium subscribers that same day. Become a premium subscriber.

Content Highlights:

• The macro set-up and why people are talking about stagflation (1:56);
• The K-shaped economy and the damage being done (3:31);
• Fed Chair Jerome Powell claims there's no stag and no flation. Is he wrong? (It wouldn't be the first time) (8:50);
• Faced with this backdrop, what does one do as an investor? (13:03);
• China: There are still reasons to worry, even though the bleeding from the property market has abated a bit... (15:58);
• India: long term growth story. Also copper, oil, and Japan (17:11);
• The guest's favorite areas for opportunity right now: UK and India (21:07);
• A long-term concern is the fiscal situation in the US (22:00).

For more about the guest, visit her firm's website MacroVisor.com or follow her on Twitter/X. 

This episode was recorded April 15, 2024, and was made available to premium subscribers the following day -- without ads or interruptions. More information on premium subscriptions is available on our Substack page.

Dr. Doug Greenig of Florin Court Capital joins the podcast to discuss his worldview -- one where the US is no longer the sole superpower -- the situation in the Middle East, US fiscal concerns, artificial intelligence, and trends in commodities.

And of course how this all impacts his trading strategy.

Content Highlights

• The world has undergone many changes with the US emerging as its lone superpower. That era is over (2:09);
• China is a legitimate competitor to the US. It's just having a bad moment due to the property market. But China is not going anywhere as an economic or military power (6:07);
• The guest's trend-following model trades 500 assets and seeks to capture medium-term changes. What he looks for to enter and exit trades (16:52);
• One trend is lower electricity prices in Europe (19:19);
• Populism and the latter stage of democratic government make for a potentially bearish outlook for US stocks (27:15);
• Background on the guest (41:04);
• Iran is still a force in the Middle East and beyond. Discussion of the weekend drone attack on Israel, which may have been an attempt at making a point (48:40);
• As Russia's economy illustrates, sanctions are hard to enforce. There may be inherent bias in many pro-Western analysis... (53:03);
• US fiscal problems are real. The guest says it has "something like five years" before this takes a serious toll. Artificial intelligence may postpone this however (55:45);
• Hypersonic missiles: One area where Russia and China have an edge over the US (57:45).

More Information on the Guest

• LinkedIn;
• Website: FlorinCourt.com.

This podcast episode was recorded Friday, March 29, 2024 and made available to premium subscribers the next trading day. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits, visit our substack.

Enrique Abeyta of HX Research rejoins the podcast to discuss his (constructive) views on the stock market, why commercial real estate concerns are overdone, and to provide one stock pick -- and it's not Nvidia, though he does discuss that at some length.

Some mature language is used at a few points. Sensitive listeners should be advised. 

The guest's microphone setup is significantly better than the host's so don't get discouraged by the host sounding like he's hiding in a cave at the open.

Content Highlights

• Trends are underrated. Many investors don't respect them or understand what they mean. The current trend is clearly long-term bullish for stocks (2:21);
• However over the short term there could (probably will) be a pull back -- as appears to be happening the week after recording (5:24);
• On the whole, however, the outlook is very constructive. So constructive that the guest has only seen this clarity 10 times or less in his 30-year career (12:30);
• When it comes to the Federal Reserve, there is a strong possibility interest rate policy stays roughly the same... (15:36);
• Contrarian take: there's no need to worry about commercial real estate: (19:00);
• Regional banks presented an opportunity a year ago. New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) is not an opportunity now (23:54);
• Views on Nvidia (NVDA): not super constructive (28:20);
• One long term idea: Independent power producer Talen Energy (TLNE), owner of a nuclear power plant. The company recently emerged from bankruptcy (34:51).

More on the Guest

• Website: HXResearch.net;
• Twitter/X: @EnriqueAbeyta.

This podcast was released for premium subscribers on March 20, 2024. For more information on premium subscriptions please visit our Substack.

Financial market historian Daniel Peris joins the podcast to discuss his latest book, The Ownership Dividend, and why the next stage of the investing cycle will be marked by renewed focus on dividends and cash flows.

Note: The host's mic was a little 'stuffy' for this episode but the guest comes in loud and clear!

Content Highlights

• Cashflows have become ignored in the marketplace with investors accustomed to speculation over income. That is due to change (2:55);
• No, this isn't about value versus growth. Dividends and more notably buybacks are everywhere (5:22);
• Warren Buffett has long said that companies should reinvest in the business rather than pay out dividends. But Buffett is no longer a minority shareholder... (18:30)
• Background on the guest and unexpected detour into Russia/Ukraine (27:37);
• Views on different sectors of the stock market from a dividend perspective (36:33);
• What does the current era of dividend payouts say about the investing cycle? (42:40).

More on the Guest

• Website: StrategicDividendInvestor.com;
• Twitter: @HistoryInvestor;
• Order the book.

This podcast episode was recorded Friday, March 1, 2024, and was made available to premium subscribers on March 6. For more information on premium memberships visit our Substack.

Mark Higgins, author of the new book, Investing in Financial History, joins the podcast to discuss lessons from the past and what period is the most appropriate point of comparison to today's market environment.

Content Highlights

• What period from the past compares closest to the one we're living through now? It's a combination of several... (1:56);
• The last time the US -- and Federal Reserve -- battled serious inflation was from 1965 to the early 1980s. Here there are several parallels to today's age... (4:36);
• The Fed appeared to turn more accommodative in December and January. This may have been a mistake (9:04);
• Financial history is very much a history of panics, but there has not been a major bank run in the US since the Great Depression (11:51);
• Portfolios have become increasingly complex without proper consideration of cost -- and risks (15:40);
• Decentralized currencies aren't new and in fact once characterized the US dollar -- and for the same reason (fear of central banks and fiat currency, etc). That didn't end well... (18:06);
• Background on the guest and how he came to write the book (22:05);
• Bubbles and their challenges. Some commonalities include the media as trailing indicator... (27:17);
• The 180 degree turn on public debt by US public officials (29:36);
• The US dollar will likely be replaced as global reserve currency one day (33:25).

More From the Guest

• Website: EnlightenedInvestor.com;
• Order the book on Amazon.com;
• LinkedIn: @MarkHiggins.

This podcast was recorded on Feb. 15, 2024 and made available to premium subscribers that same day (without ads, natch). For more information on premium subscriptions, visit our Substack or Supercast.

Ted Oakley, founder of Austin, Tex.-based Oxbow Advisors, joins the podcast to discuss his views on markets and the economy and why this is a time to get defensive with one's portfolio.

Content Highlights

• The stock market highs for the year will be set during the first quarter (1:47);
• "There are things that people don't see" (or at least don't publicize) that are pointing to a slowdown in the economy (3:08);
• One of these is the US consumer, who is now borrowing to finance purchases (4:59);
• Another is commercial real estate, which is just starting to rear its head... (6:05);
• Interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve may be further away than realized due to inflation risks (8:22);
• Oxbow has been invested in 'Magnificent 7' stocks Microsoft (MSFT), Google (GOOG), and Apple (AAPL) for some time, but has been trimming these holdings and is certainly not looking to add more. But certain defensive sectors got cheap recently... (10:48);
• Background on the guest (23:07);
• What previous period in investment history is today's market most reminiscent of? Bulls will not like this answer... (29:32).

More from the guest

• Website: OxbowAdvisors.com;
• Twitter: @Oxbow_Advisors;
• YouTube;
• LinkedIn: Oxbow_Advisors.

AJ Giannone, the chief investment officer of Allio Capital Management, joins the podcast to discuss why high yield and private credit present compelling opportunities for retail investors — despite the apparently advanced state of the economic cycle.

This podcast was recorded on Monday, March 17, 2025 and was made available to premium subscribers the very next day. For more information on premium subscriptions, visit our Substack.

Not investment advice! Do your own research, make your own decisions.

Content Highlights

• High yield debt: this does not appear to be a good time to invest in this asset class, especially through listed funds. Or is it? (1:18);

• The iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) is one way convenient and low-cost way for retail investors to access this asset class (5:05);

• Another iShares product, iShares BB Rated Corporate Bond ETF (HYBB) is a so-called 'smart beta' approach… (7:43);

• The guest is not particularly concerned about a recession, or at least not the performance of high yield should one come to pass. Even then, the default rate should not increase dramatically (9:51);

• Private credit is another niche corner of the credit market that has recently been open to retail investors via ETFs VPC and PCMM, among others (12:39);

• Background on the guest (22:52);

• Some of the macro signals he watches and what they are telling us right now (28:01);

• There is still upside in European equities (33:54);

• What about the US market? (38:19)

More Information on the Guest

• Website: AllioCapital.com

Scott Colbert, chief economist at Commerce Trust Company in St. Louis, rejoins the podcast to discuss his "surprisingly optimistic" outlook for the US economy in 2024.

This podcast episode was recorded Jan. 30, 2024, and was made available to premium subscribers that same day. Become a premium subscriber through our Substack or Supercast pages.

Content Highlights

• The outlook for the economy is surprisingly optimistic given the set-up going in to last year (1:30);
• The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates for some time (2:39);
• Can stocks continue to advance without rate cuts? The outlook for small caps and mid-caps... (6:35);
• The outlook for bonds: surprisingly constructive even if there aren't rate cuts right away (10:05);
• How the economy is breaking down geographically in the US... (17:01);
• Commercial real estate is 'the canary in the coal mine' but nowhere near as pervasive as subprime residential pre-2008... (24:36);
• The guest's take on the impact of this year's US presidential election (28:15);
• Top concerns start with deficit spending... (33:23);
• An economist's take on the AI revolution (39:28).

More on the Guest

• Website: CommerceTrustCompany.com;
• Published insights from Commerce Trust Co.

This episode was recorded on Jan. 8, 2024, and made available to premium subscribers the following day -- without ads or announcements. For details on how to become a premium subscriber (it's very easy), visit our Substack or Supercast.

Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macroeconomics rejoins the podcast to discuss his outlook for the economy and markets in 2024.

Content Highlights

• Knapp's outlook for 2023 played out until September. Then the Fed changed the rules of the game somewhat and markets now face a difficult period... (3:29);
• Investors are expecting a recovery in earnings, which may be hard to achieve (7:00);
• The drop in inflation can be traced to one cause: a deflationary shock in goods prices (8:57);
• How the Fed can justify interest rates as soon as March... (11:36);
• Why bonds haven't continued to rally this year (16:58);
• The Fed will cut to 4% by year-end and the yield curve should dis-invert with 10-year Treasury yields rising to 4.5% (22:06);
• Fed independence is taken for granted. That may be about to change... (28:35);
• Only four occasions post WWII have seen yield curve inversions this deep. All have led to major recessions... (36:40);
• How do stocks look in this whole picture (40:31)

More About the Guest

• Website and newsletter: IronsidesMacro.substack.com;
• Twitter: @BarryKnapp.

This podcast episode was recorded Dec. 20, 2023 and made available exclusively -- without ads or announcements -- for premium subscribers that same day. This is just one of the benefits of becoming a premium subscriber. The others are detailed on our Supercast or Substack pages.   Kyrill Asatur, co-founder and CEO of Centerfin, re-joins the podcast to discuss his views going into 2024 and the likelihood there won't be a 'soft landing' for the economy next year.
Content Highlights

• Consensus estimates for 2024 are going to be wrong, just like they were for this year and every year before it (2:12);
• Coming in to this year the banking sector was a concern, though as it turned out for the wrong reasons (4:39);
• The catalyst for the reversal this fall and the new, dovish Fed (7:26);
• The contrarian call is that they're won't be a soft landing -- or a stock market crash (11:44);
• Possible explanation for the 'Fed pivot' (16:48);
• How the guest is allocating assets going into 2024 (23:56);
• Artificial Intelligence (AI) discussion (29:02).

More on Kyrill Asatur and Centerfin:

• Website: Centerfin.co;
• Twitter: @WallStHobbes;
• LinkedIn page;
• Facebook: CenterfinHQ;
• Instagram: @CenterfinHQ.

This podcast is for informational purposes only. Nothing here is intended as investment advice. Do your own research, make your own decisions.

This podcast episode was recorded Nov. 29, 2023 and made available to premium subscribers the following day. To become a premium subscriber, sign up through our Substack or Supercast.

Jared Dillian of the Daily Dirt Nap joins the podcast to discuss his bullish views on short-term Treasuries and less optimistic outlook for the US economy. He also discusses his work as an author and views on disparate issues facing society. 

Note: The podcast episode contains some mature language.

Content Highlights

• The 'soft landing' scenario appears to have become the base case. Dillian doesn't quite buy that (1:37);
• To be bullish on short-term Treasuries one needs to believe the Fed is going to cut rates. That is imminent (4:26);
• Addressing the inflation bogeyman. The risk has maybe receded over the short term, but what about a return over the medium term? There is historical precedent for this from the last time inflation was a serious force in the US... (9:37);
• Background on the guest and a broad discussion of his time at Lehman Brothers (including its downfall), working on Wall Street, career paths, education, and more...(15:48)

More on the Guest

• Website: DailyDirtNap.com;
• Twitter: @DailyDirtNap;
• Facebook: JaredDillianAuthor;
• Pre-order his book on Amazon.

Mention this podcast for a generous discount on the Daily Dirt Nap!

This podcast episode was recorded on Nov. 15, 2023 and released to premium subscribers the following day --without ads. To become a premium subscriber, sign up through our Substack or Supercast.

Kevin T. Carter, founder and chief investment officer of EMQQ Global, joins the podcast to discuss opportunities in emerging and frontier market stocks. His first lesson: don't bother with the indexes. The real opportunities are to be found in individual stocks.

Content Highlights

• The first issue with emerging market investing is the index. These do not accurately reflect the real opportunities (1:19);
• Individual stocks, especially of technology companies, have performed far better than the underlying index (6:25);
• There are three mega-trends that point to emerging markets growth over the long term (8:03);
• South America's E-commerce giant is not in any EM index. Neither is Brazilian digital bank Nu Holdings (15:14);
• A broad discussion of China, where things are not always as they appear in the western media... (19:22);
• Right now all eyes are on India. The story there is still in the early innings, but unfortunately options are limited for investors limited to US exchanges... (42:13);
• Other markets in South Asia also offer compelling opportunities. Especially Bangladesh (48:58).

More Information on the Guest

• LinkedIn: TheKevinTCarter;
• Website: EMQQGlobal.com.

This episode was released to premium subscribers on Oct. 26 without ads or announcements. More information about premium subscriptions is available on our Substack or Supercast.

Tom Carney, co-head of fixed-income at Weitz Investments, joins the podcast to discuss his (perhaps surprisingly) optimistic view of bond and credit markets.

Content Highlights

• Carney's views on the bond market. Interest rates have created a much-improved, encouraging environment for investors (1:33);
• Opportunities include the non-corporate bond market, specifically the asset-backed securities market (5:38);
• The guest has a unique view into consumer lending. There are defaults, but not more than usual (10:37);
• Discussion of the mortgage-backed securities market. There too, defaults are not particularly prevalent (13:05);
• How big of a concern is the Fed? (24:25);
• Background on the guest (29:57);
• What about his concerns facing markets at present? (38:09).

For more information on the guest, visit the website WeitzInvestments.com.

A short actionable highlights reel from this podcast was released to premium subscribers last Thursday, Oct. 12 -- the same day it was recorded. The full episode and transcript were made available to premium subscribers the following day. Become a premium subscriber by signing up on our Substack or Supercast.

David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors rejoins the podcast to discuss his views on the economy, Fed, stocks, and bonds.

Not investment advice.

Content Highlights

• Views on the bond market (1:31);
• The Federal Reserve will likely pause again at its next meeting, on Nov. 1 (6:41);
• Views on stocks (11:30);
• Once consensus emerges that the Fed is 'done' it will remove a major wall of worry and headwind the magnitude of which few are anticipating... (16:14);
• Targets for S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Industrials, 10-year yields... (21:21);
• How the 'bust' scenario will play out (27:02),

To contact David Hunter and find out about subscribing to his newsletter, you need to send him a direct message on Twitter. His handle is @DaveHContrarian. The host will not forward your messages.

This episode was released to premium subscribers -- without ads or announcements -- on Sept. 18. Find out about premium subscriptions here.

Phil Pecsok, founder of Anacapa Advisors, joins the podcast to supply a primer on contrarian investing: What it is, what catalysts to look for, and some valuable lessons from his 30-year career on Wall Street.

Content Highlights

• The guest provides his views of contrarian investing and how he uses it (1:27);
• Examples of blaring contrarian signals from past cycles (9:00);
• The Fed is likely to stay hawkish (13:14);
• The 'Rule of 3' in contrarian investing as illustrated in a story from early in the guest's career (16:37);
• His views on cryptos (24:13);
• Background on the guest (30:01);
• Sports betting is an efficient way to lose money, unless you're running the book. But sometimes there are sometimes contrarian opportunities (37:46);
• What keeps the guest up at night? Nothing in particular, though stocks are probably overbought even after the recent sell-off (45:17).

For more on the guest and his firm, visit the website AnacapaAdvisors.com.

This podcast episode was recorded on Aug. 29 with a 'highlight' clip of the most actionable insights released to premium subscribers that same day. Premium subscribers then received the full episode -- without ads or interruptions -- the following day, on Aug. 30. To find out more about premium subscriptions, visit our Substack.

Ayesha Tariq, co-founder of MacroVisor, rejoins the podcast to discuss why she is expecting a hard landing for the US economy along with other contrarian views she has about the Federal Reserve and global financial markets.

Content Highlights

• The 'soft landing' scenario has effectively become the base case. Why that's wrong (1:32);
• Unlike many (most?) recessions, this one will not be preceded by a Fed-induced credit event. For this reason, it will be milder (4:44);
• The Federal Reserve is likely to hike at its next meeting on Sept. 20. That will be its last hike this cycle (8:53);
• The US downturn will not necessarily lead to a global recession (12:58);
• The outlook for commodities, specifically copper, is bullish despite the bearish economic outlook (18:48);
• Rate hikes might be off the table, but quantitative tightening could still be incoming in 2024 (23:45);
• New segment: Listener questions. Whoever's questions are read wins a free Contrarian mug. First up: what to make of Nvidia and AI (26:36);
• Next listener question: what to look for in bank earnings? (31:42);
• One area of the stock market where the guest is particularly bullish (36:35).

For more about the guest, visit her website MacroVisor.com or follow her on Twitter/X.
Not investment advice.

This podcast was released to premium subscribers on Aug. 24. Become a premium subscriber on Substack or Supercast. 

Cormac Kinney, founder and CEO of Diamond Standard, joins the podcast to discuss the concept of diamonds as an asset class: why they haven't become an investable commodity like other precious metals, how that may be changing, and what investors can expect in terms of correlation to other assets and alpha.

Content Highlights

• Why haven't diamonds become an investable asset class like precious metals or other commodities? (1:11);
• Some of the economics behind diamond production and why supply is dropping dramatically (4:45);
• How Diamond Standard is turning diamonds into a fungible commodity (this is where the bars in the cover photo comes in) (7:55);
• What are diamonds used for practically, other than jewelry? (11:06);
• Diamonds' correlation to other asset classes over time (15:33);
• Diamond futures are coming. That will introduce much-needed liquidity (21:45);
• Background on the guest (29:30);

More About the Guest

• Website: DiamondStandard.co;
• Twitter: @DiamondStandard and @CormacKinney;
• LinkedIn: DiamondStandard;
• Instagram: @DiamondStandard.co;
• FaceBook: DiamondStandardCo.

Robert Smallbone, aka The Contrarian Capitalist, joins the podcast to discuss his view that recession fears are overblown and a fresh "blow-off top" is coming.

This podcast episode was recorded on Thursday, March 13, 2025 and made available to premium subscribers less than 24 hours later! More information on premium subscriptions is available on our Substack. Content Highlights

• Bearishness appears to have taken over markets. The S&P 500 just entered a correction. The guest is not buying that narrative (1:16);
• The uncertainty created by the new US president may be intentional to lower bond yields -- and interest rates (4:15);
• European and UK stock indexes should have more upside ahead (7:21);
• Background on the guest (12:46);
• The view on gold and silver (16:11);
• Crypto discussion (18:40).

More From the Guest

• Substack
• X: @ContrarianRob88

This episode was recorded on Aug. 15 and released to premium subscribers that same day. Become a premium subscriber here.

Brooker Belcourt, founder of Covey.io, rejoins the podcast to discuss the three-pronged consensus that the investment platform's best analysts are picking up right now and the 20 names that have emerged...

(Not investment advice).

Content Highlights

• What are the best Covey analysts picking up right now? (1:37)
• The platform's 20 best positions are split into four buckets: growth winners like Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA), healthcare (three names including biopharma), 'high-quality' names like Autozone (AZO) and Disney (DIS), and volatility expressed through the levered ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY) (4:55);
• What to make of the long volatility bet? (9:40);
• Equally interesting is the type of exposure that is absent from the best 20: no crypto, no retail stocks, nothing international... (16:04);

More About the Guest

• Website: Covey.io;
• Twitter: @CoveyInvest;
• LinkedIn: CoveyInvest.

This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers the same day it was recorded. Become a premium subscriber by signing up on our Substack or Supercast.

Peter Kraus, founder and CEO of Aperture Investors, joins the podcast to discuss his views on the economy, why he expects the 'soft landing' to occur, but why it will quickly give way to renewed concerns.

Content Highlights

• An economic soft landing is likely, but will be transitional (1:38);
• The Fed is unlikely to 'break more stuff' as this spring's banking crisis was a short-term liquidity crisis that has since been resolved. But refinancing will be a problem (4:12);
• Inflation will be more persistent and 'sticky' than markets are pricing in right now. This doesn't leave bonds in a very good position (7:20);
• When it comes to stocks, expect volatility until late autumn at which point higher interest rates will start to bite (16:17);
• The consumer, and consumer stocks, will lead the rebound starting as early as December (19:33);
• Background on the guest (26:06);
• China's driver of commodity prices may be over (35:42).

More on the Aperture Investors

• Website: ApertureInvestors.com;
• Twitter: @ApertureInvstrs;
• LinkedIn: Aperture-Investors;
• Instagram: @ApertureInvestors.

This podcast episode was made availableto premium subscribers on July 25 without ads or announcements. There are many other benefits to being a premium subscriber. Sign up through Supercast or our Substack.

Peter Atwater joins the podcast to discuss the ideas from his latest book, "The Confidence Map: Charting a Path From Chaos to Clarity." Crucially, he tells listeners why investor confidence is today fast approaching the 'invulnerable extreme' that indicates a top in markets...

Content Highlights

• Investor preferences change dramatically with their confidence levels. Generally high confidence corresponds to preference for abstract items (NFTs, cryptos) whilst low confidence yields a preference for more practical things (2:48)
• Yes, magazine covers can be a reliable contrarian indicator (5:52);
• Investor confidence levels are rapidly approaching the 'invulnerable extreme' with AI hype and a bull market for luxury goods (10:08);
• How to deal with the question of timing, and signs to look for when seeking to identify a top (15:17);
• When it comes to cryptos, the most recent mania has passed and the prospects of another round is remote (18:16);
• Background on the guest (24:10);
• Investor mania is not defined so much by overconfidence but invulnerability (27:37);
• Where does this leave investors in terms of asset allocation? Introducing 'sentiment diversification' (30:08);
• Natural gas may be at an inflection point that presages a really (32:19).

More on the Guest

• Website: PeterAtwater.com;
• Twitter: @Peter_Atwater;
• Ways to order the book here.

Not investment advice.

Premium subcribers received this (and every) episode early and without ads.

Stephanie Walter of Erbe Wealth joins the podcast to discuss some of the trade secrets of ultra-wealthy investors. Listeners may be shocked to hear about their very small allocation to public equities...

Content Highlights

• A unique way to generate tax-free income through so-called premium financing insurance (1:51);
• The security works as a life insurance policy with a premium paid by a bank (5:45);
• These securities are illiquid, with a lock-up of 10 to 15 years, but the coupon pays double-digit percent -- tax free (7:34);
• Cap rates are starting to rise, creating opportunities in commercial real estate. One example is retail in Wyoming (14:23);
• Office space is a different animal however. Too much risk, not enough reward (18:50);
• Background on the guest (22:27);
• Some of the ways ultra-wealthy allocate funds (very little to public equities), and the mindsets behind them (26:06);
• What about cryptos? (33:48);
• There are reasons to be concerned about the economy. Taxes could be a wild card here. Also interest rates (34:48).

More Information on the Guest

• Website: ErbeWealth.com;
• LinkedIn: Erbe-Wealth.

This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers on July 12 without ads or announcements. There are numerous other benefits for the premium service, which are spelled out on our Substack.

Anthony Todd, the founder of Aspect Capital, joins the podcast to discuss the trend-following investment strategy he helped pioneer almost 50 years ago including where it might be particularly applicable in today's markets.

Content Highlights

• What is trend-following? Quick primer (1:06);
• What makes a trend? (5:23);
• What markets does Aspect Capital trade? (7:52);
• Current opportunities (9:11):
  • Fixed-income (10:09);
  • Agricultural commodities (10:58);
• Price action is paramount in the trend-following model, and it can lead to closing or reversing certain trades. For example, a bond rally... (14:15);
• Wait, so is trend-following anti-contrarian? (16:11);
• Background on the guest (21:24);
• His thoughts on artificial intelligence, or AI... (28:20);
• ...and on Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies (31:55).

For More Information:

• Website: AspectCapital.com;
• LinkedIn: Aspect-Capital.

Not investment advice.

This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers on June 15 without ads or announcements. There are numerous other benefits to premium subscriptions, which are spelled out on our Substack.

Chris Bemis, co-founder of X-Cubed Capital, joins the podcast to discuss his views on regional bank credit risk, the nascent bubble in AI tech stocks (and AI more generally), problems in commercial real estate, and how he applies his mathematics background to investing.

Content Highlights

• Last September, X-Cubed's credit risk signals flashed red over regional banks, causing the firm to put on some trades to profit. That opportunity has now run its course and the other side may hold more interest... (1:21);
• AI tech stocks: It's not 1999 but more like 1995 with the beginning of the seeds of a bubble. The firm is more bullish on mid-cap stocks in general (12:11);
• Background on the guest (15:40);
• The differences between a multi-manager approach to investing and multi-strategy and why the latter has advantages right now (19:46);
• The bearish argument on office space and why he's bullish homeowners (26:20);
• Making use of mobile phone data and other 'alternative' data sources (30:00);
• AI, artificial intelligence, and why it falls short in many investment approaches (33:18);
• Some advice for math students from a mathematics academic (38:37).

More Information on the Guest

• Website: x3cmllc.com

This episode was made available to premium subscribers on June 1 without ads or announcements. To become a premium subscriber sign up on Supercast or Substack.

Naomi Fink, founder and CEO at Europacifica Consulting in Los Angeles, joins the podcast to discuss her view that inflation will prove more elevated and persistent than market participants are anticipating -- and how and where this impact will be felt.

Content Highlights

• Inflation caught investors by surprise and investors could be forgiven for thinking inflation will drop again. But inflation will more likely normalize around a higher rate (3:15);
• There are multiple reasons for this: reversal of globalization, limits to technological advancements, supply shocks, geopolitical unrest, and labor supply shortages, to name a few (4:09);
• Where does this leave Fed policy? (6:03);
• Retailers have been reporting a consumer pullback on big ticket purchases: business cycle or inflation? (13:52);
• Companies will need to innovate to deal with more persistent inflation and a skills shortage. Those that don't will be left behind (16:34);
• AI is not a cure-all and may in fact be mostly hype (18:23);
• Background on the guest (24:53);
• Japan and Japan stocks (28:36);
• Social security cost of living adjustments are not keeping up with inflation. The impact (33:59);
• What options do retirees have to maintain their purchasing power on fixed income? (38:17);
• Financial literacy is vital but may be a double-edged sword... (46:28).

More From The Guest

• Website: Europacifica.com.

This episode was made available to premium subscribers on May 24, without ads or announcements. To become a premium subscriber sign up on Supercast or Substack.

MIT Economist Simon Johnson joins the podcast to discuss his book, 'Power and Progress, Our Thousand-Year Struggle Over Technology and Prosperity' and specifically why artificial intelligence is likely overhyped, and that not just from an investment perspective.

Content Highlights

• Artificial intelligence's default trajectory is about machine intelligence, code for replacing people with machines. Historically, this has not brought great things (1:21);
• Indeed technological progress has not always benefited everybody, but just a small group at the top. Today's advancements are no different (5:11);
• Don't expect a boost to business either. Productivity gains should be limited (9:17);
• Some of the dangers of Chat GPT and Google's Bard that is driving most business development around AI (20:12);
• Background on the guest (24:26);
• Thoughts on the current market environment and its potential to spill over into crisis (27:43).

For More Information

• Get the book on Amazon: Power and Progress;
• Simon Johnson's Wikipedia page;
• Twitter: @BaselineScene.

This episode was recorded on Tuesday, May 16 and made available to premium subscribers that same day. To become a premium subscriber sign up on Supercast or Substack.

Value Stock Geek rejoins the podcast to discuss recent portfolio acquisitions Google (GOOG), Meta (META), and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), what's on his watch list, and where and when he could be looking to buy.

Content Highlights

• The case for Google stock (1:54);
• Artificial intelligence and how that is impacting Google's business (6:40);
• Meta and the Metaverse: investing in the legacy business plus Instagram (7:38);
• Taiwan Semiconductor: cyclical, yes, but a good bet for the long term (12:39);
• 'The Weird Portfolio' and how that works (16:07);
• The watchlist and two notable stocks worth watching right now: NVR (NVR) and Deere (DE) (20:39).
• Home Depot (HD), another watchlist stock, just reported earnings and lowered guidance due in part to consumers pulling back on big-ticket purchases (29:00).

More Information on the Guest

• Substack: SecurityAnalysis.org;
• Twitter: @ValueStockGeek;
• The Weird Portfolio is discussed in some detail on a previous podcast appearance.

This episode was recorded on Tuesday, May 9 and a short highlights reel was made available to premium subscribers that same day. The full podcast episode followed a day later. To become a premium subscriber sign up on Supercast or Substack.

Elliot Kallen, founder of Prosperity Financial Group, joins the podcast to discuss his expectations for a coming recession, to start this summer, and why some of the best opportunities may be in technology stocks and corporate bonds.

Content Highlights

• Tech stocks: the pullback is coming (3:31);
• The market is starting to flatline. Look to midcap value stocks (6:04);
• The Fed will likely raise rates one more time and then reverse. Time to buy bonds -- corporates (8:47);
• Consumers have already started to pull back, judging by some primary evidence the guest gathers... (12:02);
• Why the recession will be mild, despite the red flags (17:38);
• Background on the guest (24:00);
• Active management has its place (30:24);
• Thoughts on the next generation growth industries (36:53).

Not investment advice. Do your own research. Make your own decisions.

More Information on the Guest

• Website: ProsperityFinancialGroup.com;
• Facebook;
• YouTube.

Scott Colbert, chief economist at Commerce Trust in St. Louis, rejoins the podcast to discuss why the economy can continue to expand even with the onset of Trump tariffs.

This podcast episode was recorded on March 6, 2025 and was made available to premium subscribers exclusively the same day it was recorded. Information on premium membership is avaliable here. Content Highlights

• The "Trump tariff barrage" will lead to slower growth, lower economic activity, and higher inflation -- in the short term (1:51);
• Over the medium term however, tariffs should not trigger a recession, nor will they have a lasting impact on prices aka inflation (6:24);
• Labor markets: Immigration has ground to a halt, but people are aging out of the workforce. Government layoffs notwithstanding, that should result in a wash (10:23);
• Ultimately the economic cycle is half way through its growth stage, which should run for another four years. However this won't be great for growth stocks like the 'magnificent 7'... (15:14);
• Fixed income is suddenly an attractive asset class and international stocks have tailwinds as well... (18:03);
• The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker is suddenly predicting a negative print for first-quarter GDP. There are logical reasons for this (24:23).

More on the Guest

• Website: CommerceTrustCompany.com;
• Published insights from Commerce Trust Co.

This podcast episode was recorded on Monday, May 1, and released to premium subscribers a day later. To get early access to podcast recordings and take advantage of a host of other exclusive benefits, sign up to become a premium member at our Substack or Supercast.

Brady Dale joins the podcast to discuss his book, 'SBF: How the FTX bankruptcy unwound crypto's very bad good guy' and offer his thoughts on the present and future of cryptocurrencies.

Content Highlights

• Who is Sam Bankman-Fried exactly? Is he a crook? (Yeah, probably) Misunderstood? The author has known SBF for awhile and states that his subject was initially motivated by effective altruism, or EA ... (1:27);
• FTX was undone by its special treatment of Alameda. If it wasn't for that, "Sam would still be on the news all the time" today (10:54);
• Bankman-Fried's apparent misreading of crypto cycles led to ill-timed bets after Bitcoin hit an all-time high in November 2021 (14:26);
• In one of SBF's last conversations with the author, SBF claims he is unlikely to get a fair trial due to being proverbially hung already in the courts of opinion (17:59);
• Where does SBF rank among other financial market fraudsters? Perhaps Long Term Capital Management is the closest comparison... (23:52);
• Background on the guest, including what got him to write the book on SBF (34:03);
• Cryptos should eventually become a normal part of the economy. In many ways the story of SBF vindicates this (38:26);
• The world only really needs three blockchains: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin (44:28);
• Crypto regulation was supposed to have happened already, but it all seems to be talk (49:58).

More From Brady Dale

• Purchase the book from Wiley or Amazon;
• Twitter: @BradyDale;
• Subscribe to his Axios newsletter.

This podcast episode brought to you by Covey — Covey is designed to find, reward, and train the next top investment managers —from any background—that anyone can copy, so everyone can win. To track a partial portfolio of Value Investing Substack, click here.

Aaron Pek of Value Investing Substack joins the podcast to discuss his bullish outlook on three individual stocks and more generally the investment case for Malaysia.

Content Highlights

• First idea: Intel (INTC) and why it can compete with Samsung (SSNLF) and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) (2:33);
• Some additional background on Intel and its business case (4:49);
• Bears say INTC has years until it can catch up to TSMC, but Intel has the necessary machinery to bridge the gap sooner (10:10);
• Second idea: Occidental Petroleum (OXY), a unique oil play beloved by Warren Buffett (15:23);
• Background on the guest (23:57);
• Third idea: Hibiscus Petroleum (HIPEF), whose management team the guest views as the Warren Buffett management team of southeast Asian oil and gas (28:13);
• The case for Malaysia: a view from the ground (32:29);
• There is an ETF, iShares MSCI Malaysia ETF (EWM) which tracks Malaysian stocks. Discussion of Malaysia's geopolitical place between China and the US (34:39);
• China's lost decade (44:11).

Not investment advice! Do your own research, make your own decisions.

More on the Guest

• Substack: ValueInvesting.Substack.com;
• Twitter: @ValueInvestingZ;.

 

This podcast episode was recorded on Thursday, April 6, with an actionable highlights clip previewing the following day's non-farm payrolls released to premium subscribers that same day. The full podcast episode was then released to premium subscribers a day later. To get early access to podcast recordings and take advantage of a host of other exclusive benefits, sign up to become a premium member at our Substack or Supercast.

Mike Singleton of Invictus Research rejoins the podcast to discuss his pessimistic outlook for the economy, why he's concerned about credit risk, and why the Federal Reserve should end up cutting rates before too long.

Content Highlights

• The outlook for risk assets is still not constructive (2:40);
• Fed rate hikes are very close to a peak, if not there already (4:43);
• Economic conditions point to stubborn inflation (7:09);
• Inflation may not need to return to the Fed's 2% target for there to be rate cuts (11:00);
• The outlook for commodities prices is not particularly constructive either (15:59);
• What to make of the banks? (21:14);
• One leading economic indicator that Invictus likes, which is overlooked (or ignored) by the market at large (22:30);
• The backdrop is still positive for short-term bonds (24:28);
• Leading indicators for the yield curve include bank lending standards, which right now suggest a steepening... (26:13);
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More about the Guest

• Twitter: @InvictusMacro;
• Website: Invictus-Research.com.

Not investment advice.

This podcast episode was recorded on Thursday, March 23 and released to premium subscribers the following day. To get early access to podcast recordings and take advantage of a host of other exclusive benefits, sign up to become a premium member at our Substack or Supercast.

Kevin Philip of Bel Air Investment Advisors joins the podcast to discuss why he's still bullish about technology despite seismic changes in that industry, his less enthusiastic take on cryptocurrencies, and other issues he's watching -- be they in the banking sector or geopolitically.

Content Highlights

• Tech is not dreck, nor is it dead. Technological advances are at the heart of US economic growth. Demand for digital goods may have gotten ahead of its skis during Covid. It will return (1:40);
• Chances for an interest cut by year-end have increased with the bank failures (4:30);
• The employment situation is changing in the technology industry as it comes to terms with delicate circumstances around business models and the concept of value in general (6:01);
• The bank failures may create opportunities for venture capital in two areas: secondary funds and a new vintage of funds that should generate outsize returns in the future (9:20);
• Tech stocks have been beaten down, but lower interest rates can sustain earnings multiples. There are risks, however... (11:23);
• Some of the threats and opportunities wrought by Chat GPT and AI (14:11);
• When it comes to cryptocurrencies, the guest is not a major fan -- and this was recorded before Binance (18:52);
• Silicon Valley Bank was poorly managed and had a bad business model. It deserved to fail (21:52);
• As for Credit Suisse, the Swiss bank appears to have been undone by a crisis of confidence (23:44);
• Background on the guest (27:50);
• Bel Air's clientele is mostly about wealth protection rather than growth. What are some tried and true methods for accomplishing this? (32:25);
• China discussion and why there's no need to invest internationally (34:48);
• Through it all, there are reasons for optimism (43:31).

Not investment advice.

For more information on the guest, visit the Bel Air Investment Advisors website.