Today’s guest is Timothy Arcuri, Managing Director at UBS.
Timothy leads UBS' Equity Research efforts in semiconductors and semiconductor equipment in the US region. A former process engineer, Tim began his Wall Street career in 1998 and has spent nearly three decades studying chipmakers and their supply chains.
Timothy has been covering the semiconductor landscape for over 20 years. His expertise is unmatched.
Across the compute stack, we discuss:
- The power and revenue needed to support semiconductor growth expectations
- Who will pay a premium for faster inference
- How hyperscalers balance Broadcom’s full-service model with greater control over chip design and memory procurement
- What Cerebras’s OpenAI deal means for its cloud and hardware business model
- Where equipment, packaging and materials create openings for startups
- Political backlash and the industry’s dependence on a small number of customers
Timestamps:
0:00 Introduction
1:13 Can power keep up with semiconductor expectations?
7:55 From process engineering to Wall Street
12:40 Measuring AI demand and pricing faster inference
18:44 How AI is changing semiconductor research
21:12 NVIDIA, AMD and Intel
24:31 Custom chips, Broadcom and MediaTek
28:57 Inference startups and Cerebras’s business model
33:22 Micron, HBM and the memory cycle
38:54 What long-term memory contracts change
45:50 Equipment, packaging and fab economics
53:56 Where new compute companies can compete
1:02:27 Cobots, humanoids and demand for chips
1:03:57 Political backlash and customer concentration
1:08:07 NVIDIA’s installed base and what gets cut in a downturn
The Compute 100 is led by Brian Schechter and Gaby Lorenzi, compute-focused investors at Primary. Primary is a pre-seed and seed-stage venture firm that backs founders building across markets including compute, industrials, healthcare and vertical AI. With $1.6B AUM and a 60+ person operating team, Primary delivers unparalleled support to teams across recruiting, finance, GTM, and brand. Primary’s compute portfolio includes Etched, The Biological Computing Company, Haiqu, and Atero (acquired by Crusoe).
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This podcast is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Nothing discussed in this podcast constitutes investment, legal, tax, or accounting advice, or a recommendation to make any investment. Any views expressed are as of the date of recording, are subject to change, and may include forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties.