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Jaime Carrasco, Senior Portfolio Manager at Harbourfront Wealth Management, argues that rising global interest rates signal a deepening credit crisis rather than a healthy economy, likening the situation to water overwhelming the Titanic. He views the current pullback in gold prices not as a weakness but as a strategic opportunity to build positions, emphasizing that central banks continue to accumulate physical gold as a hedge against the ongoing debasement of fiat currencies.

Carrasco contends that the real problem is not assets becoming more valuable but the purchasing power of money eroding, a trend he expects to accelerate as governments are forced to print money to manage unsustainable debt levels. He draws a sharp distinction between owning real assets and holding credit-based derivatives, warning that the latter could prove worthless in a systemic reset reminiscent of the 1930s.

Carrasco highlights the precious metals sector, particularly producers like Agnico Eagle, as one of the few areas trading at a discount to intrinsic value, offering a value proposition similar to Warren Buffett’s investments in the late 1990s. He sees a massive opportunity in silver, noting the historically extreme 70-to-1 gold-silver ratio compared to an 8-to-1 mining ratio, and points to growing industrial demand and Asian physical buying as catalysts for a rebalancing.

Geopolitically, Carrasco favors Latin America for its resource wealth and relative insulation from the credit and energy crises afflicting Europe and other regions. He stresses the importance of patience and a disciplined asset allocation, recommending a significant weighting in precious metals and direct share ownership. For investors, the core message is to recognize the long-term monetary shift underway and position accordingly in tangible assets and well-managed producers before the broader market fully acknowledges the scope of the developing storm.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:56 - Gold as Crisis or Opportunity
00:03:43 - Fiat Currency Devaluation
00:09:03 - Positioning in Real Assets
00:14:48 - Gold Pullback as Opportunity
00:22:50 - Interest Rates and Bonds
00:29:00 - Gold Silver Ratio Opportunity
00:35:48 - Asset Allocation Strategy
00:40:00 - Geopolitical Risks Latin America
00:45:00 - Portfolio Construction Details
00:55:10 - Volatility Versus Risk
01:00:00 - Timeline for Positioning
01:07:34 - Concluding Thoughts

Guest:

Jaime Carrasco — Senior Portfolio Manager & Senior Investment Advisor at Harbourfront Wealth Management
Jaime Carrasco is Senior Portfolio Manager & Senior Investment Advisor at Harbourfront Wealth Management. From 2014-2018 he worked as Director of Wealth Management and Associate Portfolio Manager for ScotiaMcLeod. Before this, he worked for Macquarie Group, CIBC Wood Gundy, BMO Nesbitt Burns, Gordon Capital, and Merrill Lynch.

Jaime is a leading Canadian investment professional with 25 years of experience providing wealth management and investment counsel to affluent families, businesses, and institutions. He has garnered a reputation for questioning and challenging the status quo and exploring the most innovative investment strategies.

Jaime, whose mother tongue is Spanish, also speaks Italian and French. He completed a BA in political science and economics at the University of Toronto in 1988. While a student, he worked for CS Yacht, a company that built luxury sailboats, thus spending his summers as a skipper for the Canadian establishment members. Jaime credits this experience and having survived sailing through Hurricane Bob in 1991. This experience taught him lessons that have become a metaphor for his financial investment strategies.

"Like one's financial wealth, sailing is not about controlling the wind, but rather about adjusting the sails."
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Porter Stansberry warns that the United States is on an irreversible path toward a major fiscal and societal crisis by 2029, drawing a historical parallel to the downfall of the Knights Templar. He explains that when a sovereign becomes insolvent, it inevitably turns on its creditors, and the largest creditor to the U.S. government is not bondholders but the recipients of unfunded Social Security promises. The root of this decay, he argues, is the abandonment of the gold standard, which has enabled unchecked money printing and triggered the Cantillon effect—where newly created currency flows first to the wealthy and connected, systematically eroding the middle class and destroying the single-income household. This monetary debasement has fueled profound cultural and moral collapse, manifesting in diseases of desperation, addiction, and a loss of faith in American institutions.

Stansberry identifies the legal doctrine of "disparate impact" as the American version of Marxism, arguing it has corrupted everything from education and law enforcement to banking, leading to urban decay and institutional inefficiency. He contends that the banking system is now acutely vulnerable due to massive unrecognized losses on bond portfolios, a situation made untenable by the rise of AI, which will soon allow depositors to effortlessly seek market-based yields, triggering bank runs. To survive the coming reset, Stansberry outlines tiered investment strategies. For the very wealthy, he recommends buying deeply undervalued timberland.

For most investors, he advocates a "permanent portfolio" that replaces traditional bonds with property and casualty insurance stocks to hedge against inflation and volatility. For those still accumulating wealth, he details a "honeycomb" portfolio—a concentrated, seven-sector strategy centered on gold and enhanced with modest leverage to maximize returns while minimizing risk. He concludes that the window to prepare is closing, urging immediate action before the crisis becomes obvious to everyone.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:54 - Friday the 13th Origins
00:02:03 - Social Security Crisis Warning
00:06:53 - Cantillon Effect Explained
00:07:53 - Disparate Impact Doctrine
00:22:06 - Banking System Risks
00:28:19 - AI Transforming Banking
00:33:14 - Permanent Portfolio Strategy
00:41:26 - Honeycomb Portfolio Approach
00:44:10 - Being Pro-Active
00:57:20 - Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:
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Substack: https://substack.com/@porterstansberry

Porter Stansberry is one of the most recognized voices in independent financial publishing over the past quarter century. He built Stansberry Research from a single newsletter into a company that went public at a $3 billion valuation, then walked away to start over on his own terms.

In 1999, Porter Stansberry launched what would become Stansberry Research with a borrowed laptop and $36,000 in seed financing from publisher Bill Bonner. The operation began in a modest Baltimore apartment, where he wrote his first newsletter, initially called the Pirate Investor, and built a subscriber base through the quality and directness of the analysis itself.

The model was simple in concept and difficult in execution: deliver genuinely useful investment research to individual investors who had no access to the same quality of analysis available to institutional clients. That founding principle shaped everything that followed.

Before starting his own firm, Porter had already established a foothold in financial publishing by becoming the first American editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the world's oldest English-language financial newsletter. The role gave him a grounding in the tradition of long-form, independent financial analysis, a tradition he would spend the next two decades expanding.

Porter Stansberry departed from MarketWise in 2020 and founded Porter & Co. in April of that year. He left the institutional structure of a public company behind and returned to the model he had started with: a small, editorially-independent team producing research without compliance committees, corporate mandates, or outside investors determining the agenda.

Guest:

Porter Stansberry — Founder of MarketWise, OneBlade, and Porter & Co.
Porter Stansberry is one of the most recognized voices in independent financial publishing over the past quarter century. He built Stansberry Research from a single newsletter into a company that went public at a $3 billion valuation, then walked away to start over on his own terms.

In 1999, Porter Stansberry launched what would become Stansberry Research with a borrowed laptop and $36,000 in seed financing from publisher Bill Bonner. The operation began in a modest Baltimore apartment, where he wrote his first newsletter, initially called the Pirate Investor, and built a subscriber base through the quality and directness of the analysis itself.

The model was simple in concept and difficult in execution: deliver genuinely useful investment research to individual investors who had no access to the same quality of analysis available to institutional clients. That founding principle shaped everything that followed.

Before starting his own firm, Porter had already established a foothold in financial publishing by becoming the first American editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the world's oldest English-language financial newsletter. The role gave him a grounding in the tradition of long-form, independent financial analysis, a tradition he would spend the next two decades expanding.

Porter Stansberry departed from MarketWise in 2020 and founded Porter & Co. in April of that year. He left the institutional structure of a public company behind and returned to the model he had started with: a small, editorially-independent team producing research without compliance committees, corporate mandates, or outside investors determining the agenda.
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Tom welcomes back trader Tony Greer to the show. Tony describes the current market as one of the most challenging environments he's ever navigated. He explains that a "perfect storm" of colliding weather systems is making trading exceptionally difficult. Elevated energy prices, driven by conflict with Iran and a persistently high diesel crack spread, are causing real-world inflation that isn't fully captured in headline data. This is exerting immense pressure on the bond market, which has broken out of a long-standing range to the downside, sending yields sharply higher.

Greer points out that this dynamic is crushing the natural resources sector. A strong U.S. dollar, itself a product of higher rates, is knocking down commodities like gold, uranium, and rare earths, which have seen their recent rallies completely reverse. He notes that institutional money has likely fled these trades entirely. Meanwhile, the equity market is being led by a narrow group of technology stocks, particularly in semiconductors and AI, which seem completely detached from rising rates and fuel costs—a situation he finds unsustainable and reminiscent of the dot-com bubble, highlighting a sentiment top where a random retiree brags about her Nvidia stock.

Looking ahead, Greer is adopting a defensive posture focused on survival. He is "slapping singles" by trading small, being disciplined with stops, and waiting for a clear macro signal. His immediate plan is to look for pullbacks in leading tech sectors for a safer entry. He dismisses the idea that the Federal Reserve is in a pickle, arguing its control over money supply and expectations gives it immense power to eventually engineer a turnaround.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:02:20 - Market Whipsaw and Challenges
00:04:22 - Inflation and Diesel Prices
00:07:00 - Bond Market Tailspin
00:09:10 - Bond Market Focus
00:14:30 - High Rates Market Pressure
00:17:55 - Fed Position and Policy
00:21:05 - Market Resilience and Sentiment
00:24:26 - Icarus Prints Explained
00:29:00 - Energy Crisis and Oil
00:36:11 - Impact on Miners and Firms
00:38:02 - AI Bubble and Passive Flows
00:41:10 - New Gold ETFs YASU
00:44:55 - New Financial Order & Real Assets
00:55:36 - Favorite Lessons & Mentors



Guest:

Tony Greer — Trader, Editor of 'The Morning Navigator', and Co-Founder of 'The Macrodirt Podcast'
After graduating from Cornell University in 1990 Tony followed in his father’s footsteps to a Wall Street trading operation. He quickly learned his career path would be vastly different. He says, "I would not be sitting in the same seat on the same trading desk managing the same risk for the same firm for over 30 years."

We have clearly entered a new era in financial markets.

He began in the treasury department of Sumitomo Bank on the 107th floor of the World Trade Center downtown Manhattan. Tony was an FX trading assistant while the Quantum Fund was breaking the Bank of England in 1992.

In 1993 he joined Union Bank of Switzerland as an FX and commodities trader, spending half a year as a Vice President in their Zurich treasury department. Then returned to New York City early in 1995 to join J. Aron & Company, the privately held commodity trading arm of Goldman Sachs.

He managed risk for the Goldman Sachs Commodities Index, in precious and base metals trading, and futures and options trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

He started his first venture in 2000 – Machine Trading which happened right before the tech bubble burst. That decision was his first excruciating life lesson in market timing. It turned out to be an extremely valuable learning experience.

He believes there is a massive opportunity with both the unprecedented situation in global markets and in the way financial news is consumed. In 2016, he started TG Macro, LLC.
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In this discussion, global forecaster David Murrin outlines his view that conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Pacific are not isolated but a coordinated confrontation between democracies and an axis of autocracy led by China. He traces China's rise to a multi-decade strategy developed after the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis, which involved seducing the West into moving its industrial base to China. This was coupled with systematic intellectual property theft and a military buildup, including island bases and anti-ship ballistic missiles designed to push U.S. aircraft carriers beyond their effective combat range. This area-denial bubble, now augmented by hypersonic weapons, has eroded decades of American military dominance. Iran has adopted similar tactics, using resilient missile architecture and cheap drones to challenge U.S. forces and allies, while depleting Western interceptor stockpiles that would be critical in a Pacific conflict.

Murrin argues that higher defense budgets alone are insufficient; the West must prioritize innovation and adaptability over rigid systems. He points to Ukraine as a model of rapid adaptation, where lessons are immediately applied, unlike the slow-moving Western military-industrial complex. However, he warns that cognitive warfare, particularly from Russia, has induced societal paralysis in Western nations, leading to delayed responses and a dangerous collective delusion. This has left countries like the UK with degraded militaries and insufficient political will to rearm, making NATO vulnerable to mass-produced drone threats from a newly industrialized Russia.

Economically, Murrin sees the world trapped in a hegemonic war cycle peaking around 2030, driving sustained inflation, higher commodity prices, and pressure on bond markets. He advises avoiding bonds and dollar-denominated assets, favoring precious metals as a safe haven. Despite the dire outlook, Murrin emphasizes building resilience, trusted sources of information, and hope, believing that free societies can ultimately prevail if they confront reality and demand protection from their governments.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:47 - China's Coordinated Strategy
00:05:09 - Dismantling US Military Dominance
00:09:11 - Innovation Over Defense Budgets
00:11:49 - Trump's Questioned Motivations
00:14:05 - UK Defense Negligence Exposed
00:17:01 - Gray War and Cognitive Warfare
00:19:44 - Cognitive Warfare on Populations
00:22:45 - Ukraine Visit and Adaptability
00:29:18 - Market and Economic Outlook
00:35:24 - Financial Reset and Multipolar World
00:37:45 - Investment Technologies Discussed
00:40:50 - Resilience and Mindset Advice
00:46:54 - Concluding Thoughts

Guest:

David Murrin — Global Forecaster and Author
David Murrin began his unique career in the oil exploration business amongst the jungles of Papua New Guinea and the southwestern Pacific islands. There, he engaged with the numerous tribes of the Sepik River, exploring the mineral composition of the region. Before the age of adventure tourism, this region was highly dangerous, very uncertain and local indigenous groups were often hostile and cannibalistic. David's work with the PNG tribespeople catalyzed his theories on collective human behavior.

In the early 1980s, David embarked on a new career, joining JP Morgan in London. Watching his colleges on the trading floors, he quickly identified modern society also behaved collectively. He was sent to New York on JPMs highly rated internal MBA equivalent finance program. Once back in London, he traded FX, bonds, equities, and commodities on JPMs first European Prop desk. In 1991, he founded and managed JPMs highly successful European Market Analysis Group, developing new behavioral investment techniques which were utilized to deploy and manage risk at the highest level of the bank.

In 1993, David founded his first hedge fund, Apollo Asset Management, and, in 1997, co-founded Emergent Asset Management as CIO. His primary role was overseeing trading across all fund products as well as being particularly active in the firm's private equity business. He co-founded Emvest, Emergents African land fund, in 2008 and acted as its Chairman until its sale from the group in 2011. In addition, through Emergents Advisory Business, David was responsible for the critical fund-raising for Heritage Oil, allowing it to expand significantly by investing in its Uganda exploration program. He took full control of Emergent in 2011, combining his management of the Geomacro fund with the role of Chief Executive Officer until 2014.

David has been described as a polymath and his career of more than three decades has been focusing on finding and understanding collective human behavioral patterns including deep-seated patterns in history and then using them to try and predict the future for geopolitics and markets in today's turbulent times. He has a remarkable track record.

Davids advisory and future trends speaking are based on his direct investment experience combined with a framework that can be used to explain and qualify decisions within an investment team, aid risk assessment and reduce biases in collective investment decisions.

In the desire to share his observations and predictive constructs, David has written four books.
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Peter Alexander, an American investor with 30 years of on-the-ground experience in China, argues that Western perceptions are polarized and often miss the nuance of China’s strategic direction. He was prompted to speak publicly by a sense of civic duty, seeing a need for a more balanced, non-conventional perspective amid a debate dominated by collapse narratives or hegemonic rivalry.

Alexander traces the shift in American attitudes from indifference to resentment after the 2008 global financial crisis and the Trump era, noting that China’s resilience-focused policies—like massive debt restructuring rather than consumer stimulus—are often misread as economic weakness. He explains that China’s model emphasizes building strategic optionality: developing alternative financial infrastructure like the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) and gold settlement mechanisms not to replace the dollar, but to mitigate risk of sanctions, as seen after Western actions against Russia and Iran. This multipronged approach, from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization to BRICS, reflects a longstanding effort to create a multipolar world without direct confrontation.

Alexander challenges the narrative of an imminent Taiwan invasion, suggesting the 2027 timeline was a manufactured controversy

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:01:33 - Wife's Push Into Debate
00:05:37 - Journey From Wall Street
00:08:12 - Changing US Attitudes To China
00:14:30 - No Stimulus Debt Restructuring
00:20:07 - Deconstructing Rivalry Essay
00:25:53 - Manufacturing Outsourcing Dynamics
00:34:54 - Surveillance State Misconceptions
00:38:28 - 1996 Geopolitical Awakening
00:44:41 - Strategic Optionality BRICS
00:52:15 - Gold Settlement System SIPS
01:11:26 - Gold Attitudes And Standards
01:29:30 - AI Development Realities
01:47:48 - Party Politics And Purges
01:57:26 - Concluding Thoughts

Guest:

Peter Alexander
Peter Alexander is a veteran of China’s financial markets with a career that began as a China analyst on Wall Street before relocating to Shanghai in 1996.

During his first decade in China, Peter led the local business units for several large American financial groups. It was during his last corporate position, project managing the establishment of a joint venture, where he recognized the growing demand for genuine unfiltered and independent China market insights. It was at that point, in 2004, when Peter established Z-Ben Advisors, a boutique advisory practice servicing C-suite and portfolio decision makers. Peter’s clients include globally recognized investors, managers and multinationals.

Throughout Peter’s tenure residing in China, he’s maintained a minimal public profile preferring to exclusively center on direct client engagement. That changed in 2025 as it became clear that the rise and growing reach of “China macro influencers” were dispensing with grossly errant, or at a minimum woefully incomplete, views on China. To counter this, Peter began accepting media requests making numerous appearances on CNBC and Bloomberg where he pointedly counters or expands upon the conventional China talking points.
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Rick Rule, president and CEO of Rule Investment Media, argues that a sustained decline in the purchasing power of the US dollar is inevitable due to the staggering $40 trillion in on-balance-sheet and $120 trillion in off-balance-sheet liabilities. He explains that while short-term interest rate hikes may temporarily strengthen the dollar, the political class will ultimately choose to inflate away these obligations rather than default, setting the stage for a replay of the 1970s inflationary era. In this environment, he positions physical gold as the primary savings defense, with high-quality gold stocks like Franco-Nevada and Agnico Eagle serving as a leveraged investment layer that historically outperforms bullion. He warns that speculative junior mining stocks require significant work, expertise, and psychological tolerance for volatility.

The discussion extends to the broader resource sector, where decades of underinvestment have created structural supply deficits in commodities like copper and uranium. Rule notes that these deficits cannot be quickly resolved, making price rationing inevitable. For uranium specifically, he highlights strong fundamentals driven by Japanese reactor restarts and long-term contracting, though he cautions that the market’s progress is often misaligned with speculators’ short-term expectations.

Regarding silver, he emphasizes that its major price moves are historically led by generalist investor inflows following gold’s momentum, rather than industrial demand alone. He also sees contrarian value in Canadian oil and gas, citing geopolitical tensions and fiscal necessity. Rule concludes by advising investors to distinguish between savings, investment, and speculation, urging them to limit speculative holdings to the number of hours they can dedicate to diligent research.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:15 - Dollar Value and Washington
00:05:23 - Deflation Versus Inflation Forces
00:08:13 - Gold Commodities and Resources
00:10:50 - Gold Stocks in 1970s
00:13:20 - Interest Rates Impact on Gold
00:16:48 - Geopolitics and Energy Security
00:21:47 - Uranium Market Dynamics
00:27:06 - Uranium Production Deficit
00:34:08 - Silver Supply Realities
00:39:51 - Canadian Oil and Gas
00:42:40 - Investing in Resource Companies
00:52:36 - Resource Bull Market Outlook
00:55:05 - Wrap Up

Guest:

Rick Rule — Investor, Speculator, Founder & CEO of Rule Investment Media
Rick Rule has dedicated his entire adult life to many aspects of natural resources securities investing. Besides the knowledge and experience gained in a long and focused career, he has a global network of contacts in the natural resources and finance sectors.

Mr. Rule is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and is regularly interviewed for radio, television, print, and online media outlets concerning natural resources investment and industry topics. Prominent natural resources-oriented newsletters and advisories frequently quote him. Mr. Rule and his team have expertise in many resource sectors, including agriculture, alternative energy, forestry, oil and gas, mining, and water.
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Tom Bodrovics welcomes back former Wall Street analyst John Rubino for a discussion on the incoherence between Federal Reserve and Treasury policies, with the Fed signaling possible rate hikes while the Treasury intervenes to suppress long-term yields. Rubino argues this contradictory approach signals a loss of confidence in fiat currencies and points toward a global debt spiral, exacerbated by $10 trillion in U.S. debt refinancing this year and reduced foreign demand, particularly from Japan. He sees precious metals as ultimate beneficiaries once governments resort to aggressive yield curve control, leading to a monetary reset likely backed by gold. Silver benefits from both monetary and industrial demand, especially in solar and batteries. Copper also stands to gain from electrification and AI-driven power needs.

Rubino highlights diesel prices and the Iran conflict as underappreciated inflation drivers, and warns of a frozen housing market with three groups of potential forced sellers: baby boomers, Airbnb owners, and Wall Street landlords, which could trigger a 30-40% price decline. He also flags private equity risks in commercial real estate and insurance.

For investors, he recommends starting with large-cap miners and gradually moving down the market cap ladder, using dollar cost averaging and put options for protection. Despite near-term recession risks, Rubino points to optimistic developments in longevity research, next-generation batteries, and cheap solar energy as potential long-term positives.

Overall, the discussion emphasizes an accelerating global debt crisis, incoherent policy responses, and the need for defensive positioning in hard assets.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:13 - Fed and Treasury Incoherence
00:06:40 - Higher Rates Impact on Gold
00:09:50 - Silver's Dual Industrial Role
00:12:38 - Diesel Prices and Recession Risk
00:15:07 - Geopolitical Energy Disruptions
00:18:05 - Agriculture Drought and El Nino
00:23:50 - Monetary Reset Discussion
00:27:14 - AI Catalyst and Concerns
00:30:38 - US Debt Spiral Bailout
00:32:29 - Housing Market Freeze
00:38:18 - Private Equity Risks
00:41:23 - Copper Miners Investment Strategies
00:45:34 - Picking a Portfolio of Miners
00:54:22 - Recession & Future Risks

Guest:

John Rubino — Former Wall Street Analyst, & Publisher John Rubino Substack
John Rubino is a former Wall Street financial analyst and author or co-author of five books, including The Money Bubble: What To Do Before It Pops. He founded the popular financial website DollarCollapse.com in 2004 and sold it in 2022, and now publishes on Substack.
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Graham Summers, President and Chief Market Strategist for Phoenix Capital Research, discussed the complex state of the bond market, noting the historic shift as the 40-year bull market in bonds ended in 2022. He analyzed Treasury Secretary Bessent’s recent increase in bond buybacks to $6 billion per auction, interpreting it primarily as a verbal intervention to maintain stability and signal support rather than a massive quantitative easing program.

Summers stressed that while rising yields and national debt exceeding 100% of GDP are noteworthy, the situation remains orderly and not yet resembling a debt crisis. The conversation explored the application of a "wartime economy" framework to understand current fiscal and monetary policy. The intense U.S.-China AI arms race is driving massive deficits and direct government investment in sectors like critical minerals and domestic production, including gold and uranium.

Summers highlighted the administration’s unprecedented moves, such as designating gold as a critical mineral and the Treasury Secretary explicitly discussing gold’s role in sanctions and as a strategic monetary asset. He argued this signals a fundamental shift where hard assets are regaining strategic and economic relevance after decades of being sidelined.

On inflation, Summers pointed to volatile oil prices, which the administration has proven capable of influencing through strategic statements. He cautioned that sustained high energy costs could eventually feed through to data, but the current inflationary picture is not as acute as the 2021-2022 period. When assessing market risks, he advised focusing on leading indicators like high-yield credit, market breadth, and the price action of the most heavily weighted stocks, noting none currently point to an imminent disorderly crash.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:33 - Bond Market and Treasury Buybacks
00:02:20 - End of Bond Bull Market
00:05:46 - Treasury Interventions and Signals
00:09:35 - Debt Structure and Fed Changes
00:15:05 - Global Yields and US Dominance
00:17:18 - Wartime Economy and AI Race
00:22:06 - Debt to GDP Analysis
00:27:30 - COVID Liquidity and Announcements
00:29:38 - Oil Prices and Inflation
00:35:30 - Gold as Critical Mineral
00:41:16 - Uranium and Critical Minerals

Guest:

Graham Summers — President and Chief Market Strategist for Phoenix Capital Research
Graham Summers, MBA is a world-renowned expert in central bank policy and its impact on the financial markets. With over 20 years of experience in market analysis and investment strategy, Graham has personally analyzed over 1,000 businesses and countless investment opportunities. His investment strategies encompass six different asset classes ranging from emerging markets to currencies to real estate . Together, his work has translated to unparalleled capital gains, with his clients outperforming the markets during some of the most volatile periods in capitalism.

A best-selling author and acclaimed communicator, Graham’s cutting-edge investment and economic insights have been featured in dozens of media outlets around the world including CNN Money, Fox Business, Rolling Stone Magazine, Crain’s New York Business, MoneyTalk Radio, and The Huffington Post among many others. Graham earned his MBA from the prestigious Fuqua School of Business at Duke University.
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Tom welcomes back Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, Mike McGlone for a discussion on the outlook for energy, metals, and the broader macro markets. Diesel prices at all-time highs, driven by geopolitical disruptions and refining bottlenecks, are likely unsustainable. McGlone pointed to natural gas as a leading indicator: the January futures contract, the apex of the curve, has declined this year despite a supply glut, signaling downward pressure ahead for diesel, gasoline, and crude oil. The U.S. has become a massive net energy exporter, with record production and growing surpluses from Canada, Brazil, and Guyana, which will eventually overwhelm temporary supply constraints.

Mike expects energy prices to fall, potentially accelerated by political pressure ahead of midterm elections. Copper, trading near all-time highs, is a “sock puppet” to the stock market, highly correlated and overextended. Managed money positions are extremely long, and CME inventories are at record levels relative to global exchanges, suggesting a liquidation risk if equities correct. Gold, while at elevated levels, is flashing warning signals: its volatility and correlation with the S&P 500 are at extremes, and historically, when gold gets exciting, investors should be cautious. The metal’s outperformance versus the long bond and equities may indicate a peak, with a potential enduring top similar to 2007.

The U.S. stock market is historically expensive relative to GDP and debt, and McGlone sees a normal post-inflation deflationary reversion as likely. The next big trade may be long Treasury bonds, with the 30-year yielding over 5%, offering attractive risk-off value. Political cycles, tariffs, and the administration’s aggressive stance could accelerate a correction, and McGlone expects a significant shift in the midterms.

Overall, he advises caution across risk assets, favoring bonds and anticipating a period of mean reversion that could define trading opportunities in the coming months.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:40 - Diesel Prices at All-Time Highs
00:03:03 - Natural Gas as Leading Indicator
00:04:21 - Geopolitical Issues Impacting Energy
00:05:45 - US Energy Surplus and Reversion
00:07:30 - Crack Spreads and Production
00:13:44 - Treasury Bonds and Yields
00:17:20 - Copper Stock Market Correlation
00:23:44 - Equity Market Triggers
00:29:52 - Mid-Terms and Inflation
00:33:48 - Gold Signals and Concerns
00:37:22 - Silver and Metals Peaks

Guest:

Mike McGlone — Senior Commodity Strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence
Mike McGlone is a senior commodity strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, a unique research platform that provides context on industries, companies, and government policy, available on the Bloomberg Professional service at BI(GO). Mr. McGlone specializes in the broad investible commodity markets. Mr. McGlone joined Bloomberg in 2016 with over 25 years of futures and commodity trading and investing experience, beginning at the Chicago Board of Trade. Prior to joining Bloomberg, he was a head of US research at ETF Securities. Prior to ETF Securities, Mr. McGlone headed the commodity business at S&P Indices. His previous roles included head of futures research at ABN Amro and VP research, analyst, trader, sales at Aubrey G. Lanston / IBJ Futures.

Mr. McGlone has an MBA from DePaul University in Chicago and bachelor's of science and arts degrees from Illinois State University. He is a CFA Charter holder and has earned a Financial Risk Manager designation.
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In this conversation, Tom Bodrovics and Doomberg explore the geopolitical and energy market implications of the ongoing Ukraine war, with a focus on the diesel crisis and Europe’s precarious energy dependence. Doomberg argues that the primary driver of elevated diesel prices is not the Iran conflict but Ukraine’s systematic attacks on Russian refinery assets, which reduce global refining capacity and tighten distillate markets. He notes the irony that Europe, heavily reliant on diesel imports, is among the most exposed to these price spikes. While the world is adapting through higher refinery utilization and alternative supply deals, the situation remains fragile, with inventories low and any further disruption potentially triggering a severe crisis.

The discussion then turns to the broader strategic miscalculation of treating Russia as anything less than a great power. Doomberg emphasizes that Russia’s energy leverage, nuclear arsenal, and industrial capacity make it a formidable adversary, and that Europe’s decision to sever energy ties without viable alternatives was strategically naive. He predicts that the war’s outcome will be determined by military imposition, not diplomacy, and points to signs of Ukraine’s degrading air defenses as a harbinger of a potential phase shift in the conflict. The threat of escalation, including the risk of false-flag attacks on civilian aircraft, underscores the dangerous volatility of the current moment.

Full Video is available on Substack

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:24 - Diesel Crisis and Molecular Risks
00:04:19 - Russia Energy Dependency Examined
00:11:14 - Ukraine War Geopolitics and Endgame
00:14:44 - Air Defenses & Mental Models
00:25:00 - Escalation and False Flag Risks
00:27:04 - Iran Sanctions and China Leverage
00:39:03 - Canada Energy Alignment Strategy
00:40:48 - Substack Subscribers
00:44:54 - Narratives & Bovine Excrement
00:54:24 - Investor Positioning and AI Risks
00:55:55 - Finding Satisfaction

Guest:

Doomberg — Head Writer For The Doomberg Team and Creator of the Doomberg Substack
Doomberg is the anonymous publishing arm of a bespoke consulting firm providing advisory services to family offices and c-suite executives. Its principals apply their decades of experience across heavy industry, private equity, and finance to deliver innovative thinking and clarity to complex problems.
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Chase Taylor, global macro strategist at Pinecone Macro, analyzed the recent Treasury bond market intervention, characterizing it as an unforced error that inadvertently signaled a shift toward yield curve control. The initial modest buyback program quickly escalated into a commitment to use the Treasury General Account to cap long-term yields, undermining the Federal Reserve’s earlier stance and damaging joint credibility. This intervention, combined with ongoing geopolitical tensions, has intensified inflationary pressures. Taylor highlighted diesel prices as a critical driver, with inventories at 1996 lows and high crack spreads feeding into core inflation through transportation costs. He also warned of El Niño’s potential to disrupt global agriculture, particularly sugar, coffee, and cocoa, adding another layer of price pressure.

On geopolitics, Taylor argued that economic sanctions against Iran are unlikely to force surrender, as the country has long adapted to such measures through smuggling and alternative trade networks. He noted Iran’s escalation dominance, meaning it can retaliate in ways that inflict greater economic pain on the US, such as disrupting energy infrastructure. This dynamic could accelerate capital outflows and eventually lead to capital controls, especially if inflation remains sticky. In this environment, gold emerges as a clear beneficiary, repricing higher as the Treasury’s actions signal a willingness to inflate away debt. Despite Western investor apathy, gold’s monetary properties make it a compelling hedge.

Taylor also discussed structural weaknesses in US manufacturing and defense, emphasizing the loss of industrial capacity and the politicization of technology, which hampers innovation. He advocated for a disciplined, probabilistic approach to investing, stressing risk management, self-awareness, and the importance of studying cognitive biases. He recommended diversifying internationally and maintaining a rational, non-tribal mindset to navigate the complex macro landscape.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:54 - Bond Market Intervention
00:04:27 - Escalation Traps in Markets
00:10:50 - Inflation Channels and El Nino
00:20:35 - Diesel and Energy Inflation
00:30:20 - SPR and Jet Fuel Issues
00:36:32 - Gold and Precious Metals
00:47:13 - Iran Sanctions Path Forward
01:00:20 - Missile Limitations and Ukraine
01:11:27 - Technology and AI Future
01:17:39 - Thinking and Biases
01:26:03 - Trading Discipline and Risk
01:35:30 - Concluding Thoughts

Guest:

Chase Taylor — Global Macro Strategist and Editor at Pinecone Macro
Chase Taylor is a macro trader and the global macro strategist and editor at Pinecone Macro Research. He recently became Head of Research at Bullwark Capital Management. Chase launched PMR in 2018, where he provides unique macro insights and analysis in a weekly and monthly research product.

Chase does not come from Wall Street or business school, but the military. He prides himself on being a self-taught macro thinker and practitioner. Chase started in the Air Force working on B-1 Bombers, but spent most of his career as a geospatial intelligence analyst, working on strategic and tactical intelligence problem sets. He has also worked in acquisitions at a research laboratory focused on rocket propulsion.

Chase combines the analytical techniques he learned in the intelligence community with a unique focus on history and nature to create a distinctive macro framework. He combines technical analysis, fundamental changes, and the power of narratives and reflexivity to uncover asymmetric investments.
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Hedge fund manager Chris MacIntosh offers a stark assessment of the current financial system, arguing it is held together by the immense power to manipulate credit through front-end Treasury yields. This power, however, is reaching its limits. He identifies three interconnected bubbles propped up by this manipulation: the AI-driven equity bubble, a massive private credit bubble, and the foundational sovereign debt bubble. The long end of the bond market, which central banks cannot easily control, is signaling a significant shift, with rising long-term yields threatening to unravel the entire structure. MacIntosh details how the private credit bubble is silently imploding as debt, financed at ultra-low rates, rolls over into a much higher interest rate environment. This is forcing highly leveraged, illiquid funds to gate redemptions, exposing pension funds and retail investors who were unknowingly sold this risk.

Simultaneously, the AI bubble is sustained by a passive-capital feedback loop, but the massive CapEx is now being financed with debt rather than equity as free cash flows collapse, a model he deems unsustainable without future profits. He contextualizes these financial dynamics within a broader geopolitical and societal shift, arguing that Western "democracies" are run by competing corporate interests, not elected officials. The dollar-based system, enforced by military might, is waning. Consequently, vested interests are racing to build a replacement control system based on central bank digital currencies and a global surveillance infrastructure, securing key geopolitical chokepoints in the process.

Given these converging risks, MacIntosh advocates for a probabilistic investment approach focused on asymmetry and value. He points to the extreme undervaluation of hard assets—commodities and energy—relative to overvalued U.S. equities. Similarly, emerging markets like China present significant opportunity, as negative sentiment is already deeply priced in. Ultimately, he stresses that ignoring these uncomfortable but clear structural problems is a decision in itself, and ownership of tangible, non-manufacturable assets is the logical response to a system prioritizing financialization over fundamental value.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:01:04 - Why Markets Stayed Together
00:03:10 - Three Major Bubbles Identified
00:04:37 - Private Credit Bubble Explored
00:09:46 - AI Bubble and Passive Investing
00:16:50 - Global Capital Allocations
00:21:20 - Value in Commodities and Markets
00:26:10 - Dollar Reserve Currency Future
00:37:46 - Increasing Overt Conflict 
00:50:45 - Energy and Diesel Shortages
00:55:43 - Hard Assets and Ownership

Guest:

Chris MacIntosh — Hedge Fund Manager and Founder of Capitalist Exploits
Raised in Southern Africa, Chris Macintosh has since lived and invested from sevent different countries. After a career at top-tier investment banks such as JP Morgan, Lehman, Robert Flemmings and Invesco, Chris became tired of corporate life, and has since built and sold multiple million dollar companies, overseen $35 million into venture capital, all the while investing full time, and managing his own and private client wealth.
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Recorded on: August 19, 2026

Your host, Tom Bodrovics welcomes back the market sniper himself Francis Hunt to the show. Francis Hunt is the Renegade Trader, Analyst, and the Founder of The Market Sniper. The discussion centers on a dramatic gold price surge and the underlying debt market distress. Hunt explains that the Federal Reserve is cornered, unable to maneuver as major holders like Japan face a “Hotel California” scenario with U.S. Treasuries unable to sell without triggering a crash, forced instead into repurchase agreements. This debt debasement, he argues, is a Western malaise, with the U.S. as the hegemon suffering most.

The crisis is not isolated; the UK gilt market has already seen intervention, and similar pressures are building globally. In this environment, gold becomes the ultimate safe haven, with Hunt detailing a live trade that capitalized on a technical breakout, using his HVF methodology to enter long positions ahead of the news-driven rally. He emphasizes that gold moves first, with silver expected to outperform later once the gold-silver ratio completes a head-and-shoulders pattern.

Turning to currencies, Hunt challenges the DXY’s relevance, showing that the dollar has been steadily devaluing against key trade partners like China and Mexico, which better reflect America’s structural deficit. He illustrates true inflation through a “Mars bar index,” demonstrating a 7.5% annual debasement over 31 years, far above official figures.

The conversation also touches on soft commodities, with bullish technical setups in cocoa and coffee. Throughout, Hunt advocates for self-reliance, sound money, and using trading opportunities to build wealth and optionality, urging listeners to protect themselves from the coming debt reset by stacking physical precious metals and maintaining integrity and joy in the face of dystopian trends.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:30 - Gold Price Surge Analysis
00:03:00 - Debt & Open Secrets
00:06:30 - U.K. Malaise & Western Debt
00:10:00 - Kospi and Downsides
00:14:30 - Bonds and Finding Exits
00:19:43 - Gold Silver Ratio Patterns
00:25:20 - Dollar Devaluation Insights
00:31:50 - Inflation Mars Bar Index
00:39:49 - Embracing Life
00:43:40 - Soft Commodities Outlook
00:48:50 - Concluding Thoughts

Guest:

Francis Hunt — Renegade Trader, Analyst, & Founder of The Market Sniper
Francis is a trader, first and foremost. Unlike most educators in the trading space, Francis walks the walk and talks the talk, with 30 years of experience trading his personal capital on various markets and instruments. Through this passion for trading and his relentless study of markets and economic theory, he uses the Hunt Volatility Funnel trading methodology, a systemized approach, to answer the critical question: What is the next most profitable trade?

He believes the actual price of an asset is the most accurate reflection of all the factors that influence it. Practical technical analysis, the study of price action over time, is needed to formulate profitable trade ideas. Indeed, with all the market manipulation and high-frequency trading operations currently in play, technical analysis is all that can be relied upon when it comes to formulating future price trends. A trained eye can often spot such manipulative practices, as is the case with HVF traders. Therefore, the HVF methodology is based purely on technical analysis.

Francis is passionate about sharing his knowledge and understanding of markets by utilizing his HVF trading methodology. With entertaining anecdotes and the careful guidance of his students, he has already trained a large community of hundreds of traders and helped them transform from complete newbies to seasoned trading professionals.

He genuinely loves sharing his knowledge and strategies with others who are committed to finding freedom through trading. Plus, teaching strengthens his trading abilities while helping to build a vibrant community of successful traders.
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Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Chris Vermeulen to the show. Chris Vermeulen is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer at 'The Technical Traders'. Chris discusses the broadening of the stock market, with the MAG 7 stocks losing momentum and money rotating into other sectors like semiconductors and small caps. He sees this as a sign of strength, with the market potentially poised for one more big push higher. Chris analyzes the technical indicators, noting the positive price action, bullish moving average trends, and improving sentiment.

Regarding gold and silver, Chris is cautious, viewing the recent rally as a potential bear trap that could quickly reverse. He believes the long-term trends remain bearish, and any further upside will need to break key resistance levels to confirm a shift in the trend. Chris is also closely watching the US dollar, which he believes could continue strengthening, putting further pressure on precious metals. Looking at the broader market, Chris sees potential risks on the horizon, including rising interest rates, inflation, and the possibility of a financial crisis. He believes the best strategy is to remain nimble, following the price trends and being quick to protect capital when necessary.

Chris suggests cash and the US dollar as potential defensive positions if a significant market downturn occurs.

Overall, Chris maintains a cautious yet opportunistic outlook, ready to adapt his positioning as market conditions evolve. He emphasizes the importance of focusing on price action and trends rather than emotions or biases when navigating the current market environment.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:16 - Market Broadening Beyond Mag 7
00:03:42 - Price Time Sentiment Factors
00:05:54 - Moving Averages Bullish Signals
00:07:08 - Sentiment And FOMO Analysis
00:13:00 - Currency Dollar Trends
00:15:52 - Interest Rates Outlook
00:21:02 - Oil Chart Analysis
00:26:15 - Gold Silver Behavior Shift
00:34:27 - Lumber Economic Indicator
00:41:23 - Recovery Trap Warning
00:45:55 - New Book & Wrap Up

Guest:

Chris Vermeulen — Founder & Chief Investment Officer, The Technical Traders
Chris Vermeulen is the Founder & Chief Investment Officer of The Technical Traders and the visionary mind behind Asset Revesting. In his book Asset Revesting – How to Exclusively Hold Assets Rising in Value, Profit During Bear Markets, and Continue Building Wealth in Retirement, he lays out this investment framework.

Chris launched his financial career at 16, parlaying his knack for trading and risk management into funding his final year of college, where he earned a business diploma in operations management. By his twenties, he had achieved financial independence as a full-time entrepreneur and trader. After a setback—blowing up a trading account—Chris dedicated himself to treating trading as a business, completing the Trading Strategy Mastery and Trading Is Your Business courses.

A technical analysis expert, he devises systematic methods to spot market opportunities and control portfolio risk, rejecting traditional buy-and-hold approaches that cling to depreciating assets. His efficient asset allocation models balance short- and long-term strategies to minimize drawdowns and consistently outperform benchmarks. Those seeking reliable capital preservation and growth turn to his proven techniques.
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David Hunter, Chief Macro Strategist with Contrarian Macro Advisors, maintains his highly bullish short-term outlook for equities, believing the stock market is in the final stages of a 44-year secular bull market that began in 1982. He anticipates a "melt-up" that could drive the S&P 500 to 10,000 and the NASDAQ to 36,000, representing a 30-35% gain compressed into just a few months. He attributes this potential surge not to new liquidity creation, but to existing capital being deployed as market momentum and shifting investor psychology overcome current cautious narratives.

Hunter presents a contrarian view on interest rates, arguing that the recent rise in yields is a counter-trend move tied to oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions with Iran. He expects both oil and bond yields to roll over soon, with the 10-year Treasury yield potentially falling below 4% and eventually to 3%, providing a tailwind for stocks. He also sees gold and silver breaking out of their multi-month consolidation, setting the stage for a steep rally with targets of $7,000 for gold and $200 for silver, potentially topping alongside equities. This melt-up, however, sets the stage for a severe global bust.

Hunter warns that the highly leveraged financial system will face a deflationary crash, potentially an 80% decline in equities, as the Federal Reserve, under Chair Warsh, will be slow to provide liquidity. This bust will force the Fed’s hand, leading to massive money printing that ignites the next cycle. That subsequent cycle, he predicts, will be inflationary and commodity-driven, with oil potentially soaring from a bust low of $30 to $500 a barrel, and precious metals seeing even larger gains over the following decade.

He advises that the coming bust will present a generational buying opportunity in commodities.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:20 - Melt-Up Thesis Update
00:04:19 - 44-Year Bull Market Drivers
00:10:50 - Fed Policy and Liquidity
00:16:47 - Liquidity Catalyst Discussion
00:20:20 - Oil & Market Psychology
00:27:29 - Inflation Fighting and Rates
00:31:48 - U.S. War Economics
00:35:23 - Melt-Up and Metals
00:43:00 - Gold and S&P Ratio
00:45:04 - Housing Market Correction
00:48:10 - Investment Strategies and ETFs
00:49:45 - Concluding Thoughts

Guest:

David Hunter — Chief Macro Strategist with Contrarian Macro Advisors
David is Chief Macro Strategist with Contrarian Macro Advisors. He is an investment professional with 25 years of investment management experience and 21 years as a sell-side strategist with robust macroeconomic analysis and portfolio management expertise. His strong macro capabilities, combined with a contrarian philosophy, have allowed him to forecast economic cycles and spot market trends well ahead of the consensus. Intellectually honest, independent thinker comfortable with charting a course apart from the crowd.
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Your host Tom Bodrovics, welcomes investor Eric Yeung, and Gold Fix partner Vince Lanci to discuss recent structural changes in China’s gold market, arguing that reports of China ending retail gold trading are inaccurate. Yeung clarifies that as of July 24, Chinese commercial banks are halting leveraged and forward gold contracts for retail customers on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE). This move does not eliminate these instruments but relocates them to the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) and the new Hong Kong Gold Hub. The goal is to solidify the SGE as a predominantly physical delivery exchange, potentially moving from 70% to over 90% physical delivery, while speculative activity migrates to more appropriate venues.

The conversation frames this as a deliberate chess move by China to prepare its domestic market for a larger international role. By tightening the SGE and channeling liquidity to Hong Kong—which has no capital controls—China aims to project its massive physical gold demand globally and establish gold as a high-quality liquid asset (HQLA) for international collateral, offering an alternative to US Treasury bonds. This reorganization is expected to widen arbitrage opportunities between the SGE and SHFE, further sucking physical gold from Western markets into China.

The participants highlight that Western banks are not being sidelined but are actively participating in this shift, with institutions like J.P. Morgan and Citibank becoming members of the new Hong Kong clearing entity. They contrast China’s methodical, action-oriented approach with the West’s tendency to issue white papers without immediate implementation.

The discussion also touches on central bank buying, noting that China’s official and OTC gold purchases remain robust, supporting prices, while Western retail investors remain absent, likely waiting for a market dip. The overarching theme is that a controlled migration of the global gold market’s center of gravity from West to East is underway, with China carefully building the infrastructure to dominate physical gold pricing and liquidity.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:50 - China Gold Contract Changes
00:05:14 - SGE House in Order
00:07:23 - Market Structure Changing
00:10:20 - Pricing Power Moving East
00:12:13 - New CME Paper Contract
00:14:35 - Market Reorganization Explained
00:16:48 - Arbitrage Opportunities Discussed
00:23:25 - Western Banks Entering Asia
00:26:40 - Old vs New Shopping Mall
00:37:14 - US Gold Revaluation Talk
00:46:25 - Gold Alternative to Treasuries
00:51:43 - Central Bank Gold Buying
00:57:28 - Retail Investors Absent
01:01:35 - Concluding Thoughts

Vince Links
Substack | https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/ |
X | https://x.com/Sorenthek |
Zerohedge | https://tinyurl.com/3x72ndfc |
LinkedIN | https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincentlanci/ |
X-Bullion | https://x.com/boobsbullion

Guest:

Eric Yeung — Investor and Former Contract Manufacturer In China
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Luke Gromen, president of Forest For The Trees, discussed the challenging fiscal and monetary landscape facing the US once again with your host Tom Bodrovics. With national debt at $39.5 trillion and rising rates, Federal Reserve Chair Worsh confronts a constrained choice: allow treasury market dysfunction or weaken the dollar to manage mounting debt. Gromen argued that shifting issuance to the front end, including discussions around stablecoins, effectively cash-finances deficits, which is inherently inflationary. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Bessent is embracing Hamiltonian economics—high tariffs, increased domestic production, and a neutral reserve asset—as echoed by other administration officials, though this shift demands massive deficits, higher taxes, and capital controls that threaten dollar reserve status.

The conversation highlighted China’s strategic advantages, including its rapid EV adoption and ability to reduce oil demand during conflicts like the Iran situation, which benefits China by weakening Western economies and pushing global trade toward its systems. Gromen emphasized that US reindustrialization is a costly, decades-long endeavor made harder by a lost manufacturing base and skilled workforce. He pointed to gold as a key beneficiary, noting China’s moves to shift citizens into physical gold and regulatory signals from Western banks, all suggesting a coming significant price rise.

For investors, Gromen recommended buying gold, selling long-dated treasuries, and considering electrical infrastructure equities, Japanese industrials, and gold miners, which offer strong cash flow yields and stand to benefit from prolonged geopolitical and economic restructuring.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:01:20 - Fed Choices on Inflation
00:03:18 - Treasury Market Dysfunction Risks
00:05:40 - Stablecoins Financing Deficits
00:07:45 - US China Geopolitical Competition
00:12:01 - Hamiltonian Economics Explained
00:17:47 - Reshoring Costs and Feasibility
00:23:28 - Iran Conflict Oil Impacts
00:35:10 - China Strategic Benefits
00:54:30 - China & Gold Trading
01:02:00 - Equity Valuations
01:05:20 - Bitcoin Thoughts
01:09:00 - Action Items & Wrap-Up

Guest:

Luke Gromen — President and Founder of FFTT
Luke Gromen began his career in the mid-1990s in Research at Midwest Research before moving over to institutional equity sales and becoming a partner. While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest's widely-read weekly summary ("Heard in the Midwest") for the firm's clients. He aggregated and combined proprietary research from Midwest with inputs from other sources.

In 2006, Luke left FTN Midwest to become a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company. At CRC, Luke continued to work in sales and edit CRC's flagship weekly research summary piece ("Straight from the Source") for the firm's customers.

In 2014, Luke left Cleveland Research to found FFTT, LLC ("Forest for the Trees"), a macro/thematic research firm catering to institutions and individuals that aggregates a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic, and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks.

Luke also provides strategic consulting services for corporate executives. He is a graduate of the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University and earned the CFA designation in 2003.
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Rick Rule shared his observations from his recent Rule Symposium investment conference, noting a stark contrast in sentiment between different types of precious metals investors. Seasoned, wealthy participants who save in gold welcomed the 30% price decline as a buying opportunity, while newer adherents were unnerved. Among the high-quality exhibitors, there was uniform optimism, with the best companies and projects finding ample access to capital despite a widely advertised shortage in the junior space. This capital is increasingly coming from sophisticated sources like majors and family offices, not momentum-chasing tourists.

Rule predicted a coming surge in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) driven by the need for major mining companies to buy sustainability and growth after years of underinvestment and capital discipline. He explained that declining margins from rising input costs and past high-grading practices will force companies to seek pipeline growth through acquisitions, creating significant opportunities for speculators who can identify likely targets. Regarding near-term gold prices, he was cautious, citing a strong US dollar and higher nominal interest rates as headwinds that will likely persist, making dollar-denominated savings superficially attractive. He stressed that the CPI is an unreliable measure of true inflation, as real costs for items like energy and housing are rising much faster than official figures suggest.

For speculators, Rule emphasized avoiding the 85% of essentially valueless junior companies by doing hard work. His primary screen is to invest only with management teams that are part of the serially successful 1%, and to ask them the single most important unanswered question about their asset and how they plan to test it. He also discussed long-term structural underinvestment in the energy sector, highlighting a future supply shortage in oil and the growing certainty around uranium as a baseload power source, leading to his bullish outlook on these sectors.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:50 - Conference Sentiment on Metals
00:06:42 - Quality Companies Access Capital
00:09:47 - M&A Trends in Mining Sector
00:18:00 - Worthless Juniors Phenomenon
00:20:14 - Gold Acting as Risk Asset
00:24:54 - Inflation CPI and Dollar
00:26:45 - Education Versus Emotional Investing
00:31:15 - Portfolio Building Strategies
00:37:05 - Warrants & Private Placements
00:40:00 - Eggs and Basket Positioning
00:44:40 - Energy Shocks and Nuclear
00:53:35 - Battle Bank Services Explained
00:58:39 - Rule Symposium Recordings
01:04:00 - Concluding Thoughts

Guest:

Rick Rule — Investor, Speculator, Founder & CEO of Rule Investment Media
Rick Rule has dedicated his entire adult life to many aspects of natural resources securities investing. Besides the knowledge and experience gained in a long and focused career, he has a global network of contacts in the natural resources and finance sectors.

Mr. Rule is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and is regularly interviewed for radio, television, print, and online media outlets concerning natural resources investment and industry topics. Prominent natural resources-oriented newsletters and advisories frequently quote him. Mr. Rule and his team have expertise in many resource sectors, including agriculture, alternative energy, forestry, oil and gas, mining, and water.
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Tom Bodrovics welcomes back commodity market specialist Rory Johnston for his analysis of the volatile state of the global oil market, focusing on the Strait of Hormuz, Chinese demand, and refining capacity disruptions. Johnston explains that following a recent memorandum of understanding, there was a temporary surge in oil transits through Hormuz as stranded tankers were released, creating a short-lived mini-glut that depressed prices. However, this flow has since collapsed again due to renewed kinetic attacks between Iran and the United States, effectively closing the strait once more and tightening supply.

A central theme is the unexpected role of China as a "swing demander." Johnston details how China abruptly slashed its seaborne import demand by approximately 5 million barrels a day, likely through a combination of reduced refinery runs, feedstock substitution, and the release of strategic product stocks. This massive, policy-driven swing cushioned the market from a severe price spike, preventing the demand destruction that would have otherwise been necessary. This new dynamic positions China as a powerful counterpart to OPEC's supply management.

The discussion also highlights a critical disconnect between crude oil and refined product markets. Widespread Ukrainian drone attacks have knocked out a significant portion of Russia's refining capacity, forcing Moscow to ban diesel exports and even import fuel. Combined with other factors, this has driven diesel crack spreads to historic highs, with diesel priced at nearly double crude oil. This situation creates a paradox where crude markets can be weak due to a lack of refining demand, while product markets face extreme tightness. Johnston argues that the Strategic Petroleum Reserve remains a vital policy tool, not merely for import cover but as a source of discretionary, rapid-response supply. He contends that the market's inability to quickly self-correct validates the need for such reserves.

Looking ahead, he expects prices to move higher in the short term due to renewed supply disruptions and depleted stockpiles, but maintains that a structural oversupply and a potential glut still anchor the medium-term outlook, predicting a bumpy road for oil markets over the next 18 months.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:22 - Hormuz flows post-MOU
00:04:30 - Pipeline and storage dynamics
00:09:11 - Renewed tensions impact
00:11:40 - Price and positioning analysis
00:16:20 - Demand elasticity China role
00:25:13 - Demand & SPR
00:32:13 - Russia refining capacity loss
00:41:42 - Market future outlook
00:47:15 - Siberia Drone Strike
00:48:03 - The Road Ahead
00:52:10 - Peak oil thesis debate
00:56:25 - Concluding Thoughts

Guest:

Rory Johnston — Commodity Market Research - Specializing in Oil & Gas
Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, host of the Oil Ground Up podcast, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines.

He is a leading voice on oil market analysis, advising institutional investors, global policy makers, and corporate decision makers. His views are regularly quoted in major international media including the Financial Times, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, Reuters, BNN Bloomberg, CBC, and Financial Post, and he frequently appears on numerous market and industry podcasts (e.g., Bloomberg’s Odd Lots, Hidden Forces, etc.).

Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank where he set the bank’s energy and metals price forecasts, advised the bank’s executives and clients, and sat on the bank’s senior credit committee for commodity-exposed sectors.
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Tom welcomes Melody Wright, a housing analyst and strategist to the show. Melody describes the U.S. housing market as entering its fourth year of a "frozen" state, with combined annual sales volumes comparable to 2008 levels despite a 20% population increase. National statistics mask significant regional disparities: home prices are declining in the South and West, while the Northeast and Midwest are beginning to weaken. This stagnation stems from a severe affordability crisis, where median home prices far exceed the sustainable benchmark of three times household median income, inflated by years of speculation, Airbnb investment, and treating housing as a casino rather than shelter.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:16 - Housing Market Changes
00:04:04 - Sales Decline Analysis
00:05:54 - Explaining Market Drop Causes
00:09:40 - Land Speculation Cycle
00:15:32 - Delinquency Concerns Rising

Guest:

Melody Wright — Strategist, Writer, Technologist and GFC1 Survivor
A 24-year BFSI veteran, Melody was recently named as one of Mortgage Women Magazine's Women of Technology and is a contributing writer to multiple publications. Her 2023 article in HousingWire entitled “Debunking the Housing Inventory Myth,” created controversy and sparked debate in the industry and amongst the investor community as housing analysts attributed low sales to inventory issues. Wright presciently argued that the depressed housing market was due to affordability issues and changing trends in how people buy and sell homes.

Melody Wright began her mortgage career at GMAC ResCap (RFC) in 2006 and helped manage the historic ResCap bankruptcy. After leaving ResCap and before joining the FinTech revolution, she focused on operational effectiveness at multiple large, nonbank mortgage companies. Melody launched her own strategy and technology company in 2022, Huringa, which assists the investor and industry community with navigating the ever-changing macroeconomic landscape utilizing market data and comprehensive, integrated technology solutions.
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In this interview, your host Tom Bodrovics and senior portfolio manager Jaime Carrasco analyze the recent volatility in precious metals, framing it as a typical and expected part of a secular bull market driven by a fundamental global monetary shift. Carrasco argues that gold is money and everything else is credit, with the current fiat currency system in terminal decline. He points to rising global interest rates not as an attractive yield but as a signal of bond market instability, exacerbated by soaring government debt and aging populations. This environment is devaluing all fiat currencies, which is why central banks worldwide are aggressively buying physical gold.

Carrasco contrasts the extreme overvaluation in tech and AI sectors, exemplified by SpaceX's potential valuation, with the undervalued gold and silver mining sector. He notes that high-quality producers are generating strong free cash flow, increasing dividends, and buying back shares, while also consolidating the industry through acquisitions. This creates a massive opportunity, as institutional and retail ownership of precious metals remains near historic lows. A core part of his strategy involves playing the gold-to-silver ratio, which he believes will revert from its current level toward the historical mining ratio, driven by a structural supply deficit and growing industrial demand for silver in technology and green energy.

The central theme is the importance of disciplined, long-term asset allocation rather than emotional trading. Carrasco recommends a minimum 30% portfolio allocation to the sector as a hedge against currency devaluation and systemic risk. He emphasizes direct share ownership over ETFs to avoid counterparty risk and focuses on companies with strong management, quality assets in safe jurisdictions, and low production costs. Ultimately, he views the current pullback as a buying opportunity, positioning for a historic wealth transfer as the global monetary system realigns around gold.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:46 - Metals Market Volatility Discussed
00:01:34 - Why Own Gold and Silver
00:02:55 - Rising Interest Rates Impact
00:05:44 - Fiat Currencies Devaluation
00:07:29 - Stock Market Overvaluation Concerns
00:08:44 - Silver for AI Infrastructure
00:12:04 - Historical Market Comparisons
00:18:55 - Physical Share Ownership Benefits
00:28:16 - Gold Silver Ratio Strategy
00:32:21 - Silver Supply Deficit Analysis
00:34:22 - Sector Underownership Reasons
00:40:23 - Dividend Strategy in Producers
00:47:56 - Concluding Thoughts

Guest:

Jaime Carrasco — Senior Portfolio Manager & Senior Investment Advisor at Harbourfront Wealth Management
Jaime Carrasco is Senior Portfolio Manager & Senior Investment Advisor at Harbourfront Wealth Management. From 2014-2018 he worked as Director of Wealth Management and Associate Portfolio Manager for ScotiaMcLeod. Before this, he worked for Macquarie Group, CIBC Wood Gundy, BMO Nesbitt Burns, Gordon Capital, and Merrill Lynch.

Jaime is a leading Canadian investment professional with 25 years of experience providing wealth management and investment counsel to affluent families, businesses, and institutions. He has garnered a reputation for questioning and challenging the status quo and exploring the most innovative investment strategies.

Jaime, whose mother tongue is Spanish, also speaks Italian and French. He completed a BA in political science and economics at the University of Toronto in 1988. While a student, he worked for CS Yacht, a company that built luxury sailboats, thus spending his summers as a skipper for the Canadian establishment members. Jaime credits this experience and having survived sailing through Hurricane Bob in 1991. This experience taught him lessons that have become a metaphor for his financial investment strategies.

"Like one's financial wealth, sailing is not about controlling the wind, but rather about adjusting the sails."
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Veteran commodities trader John Johnston, also known as JJ, provides a detailed rebuttal to the prevailing narratives of oil market scarcity, arguing that the recent price volatility was a paper-driven phenomenon disconnected from physical realities. He explains that the price spike to $120 in March was fueled by the purchase of 750 million barrels worth of futures contracts in a short period, a massive speculative position that has been unwinding for weeks, pressuring prices. In reality, inventories were at near-record highs entering the conflict, with little actual disruption to supply. The US itself is structurally oversupplied, producing millions of barrels per day more than it consumes, while global proven reserves stand at a staggering 1.7 trillion barrels, rendering talk of shortages untenable.

Johnston deconstructs the concept of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), revealing that recent drawdowns were not sales but structured repo agreements. The government lent barrels to companies with a 25% payback due in the future, meaning those future obligations have already been hedged in the market. He dismisses the "tank bottom" narrative about Cushing storage as technically misleading, explaining that operational capacity is vastly underreported and that the current system’s high throughput velocity makes a logistical failure highly improbable. This underscores a broader principle: if a narrative is not validated by price action, it should be ignored, as market participants with vested interests, like oil producers, will never claim a surplus.

Looking at the broader financial landscape, Johnston notes a shortage of dollars and a strong dollar environment acting as a headwind for commodities, with the market in a disinflationary liquidity contraction. Given this outlook, he sees no significant trade in flat oil price but suggests the long end of the Treasury curve offers value, expecting yields to fall. For equity exposure, he prefers gold miners and pipeline companies, which generate massive cash flows at current commodity prices, allowing him to comfortably weather volatility. Ultimately, he argues that market understanding comes from a position of detached amusement, not anxiety, and that the current oil market is a “great big nothingburger” that should be trading at lower levels.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:16 - Oil Market Perception vs Reality
00:07:30 - Refiner Profits Analysis
00:16:54 - Strategic Petroleum Reserve
00:23:27 - SPR Dynamics
00:27:00 - Tank Bottom Narrative
00:32:22 - Oil Dynamics & Manipulation
00:37:36 - Dollar and Macro Factors
00:44:36 - BLS Data Reliability
00:50:33 - Rates & Investment Strategies
00:55:30 - Concluding Thoughts

Guest:

John Johnston — Veteran Commodities Trader & Substack Publisher
John Johnston, known as JJ, is a veteran commodities trader with 48 years of experience. He began his career as a runner on Wall Street, became an account executive at Conti Commodities in 1976, and in 1977 purchased seats on the NYMEX and COMEX, trading from the pits for the next three decades.
Over his career, he worked for firms including Drexel Burnham Lambert, Rudolf Wolff, REFCO, Mann Financial, The Standard Bank of South Africa, and ADM Investor Services.

Through his Substack (jj745.substack.com), JJ shares a blend of old-school trading wisdom, selective technical analysis, market history, and lore. As he says, “I never try to be right. I try to be honest. I never want a reader to think what I think. I want the reader to know what I know.”
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Recorded on: June 29, 2026

Jesse Felder highlights a striking divergence in oil markets: physical inventories, including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, have plunged to multi-decade lows while demand hits records, yet institutional investors hold the most bearish positioning ever. This contrarian setup is amplified by the AI frenzy, which has drained interest from energy—despite the sector’s strong five-year performance. Insider buying in exploration and production (E&P) companies and an absence of commercial hedging signal confidence in sustainably higher prices. Felder argues that a decade of underinvestment due to capital flowing elsewhere, first to shale, then to ESG, now to AI has constrained supply, laying the groundwork for an oil supercycle targeting $120/barrel.

Turning to gold, Felder notes that a needed correction has brought prices back toward levels suggested by real rates, with speculative froth easing. A pivot from the Federal Reserve toward rate cuts—should economic weakness emerge—could reignite a bull run. He warns that new Fed Chair Warsh’s attempt to walk back dovish policies and market handholding may be thwarted by the economy’s immense dependence on asset prices and record margin debt, which, as a share of M2, now rivals March 2000 extremes. The AI-driven equity rally is increasingly fragile. The Magnificent Seven’s once-dominant moats have eroded as they compete in overlapping fields, while free cash flows for hyperscalers have evaporated.

The emergence of open-source Chinese AI models—offering comparable performance at a tiny fraction of the cost—threatens to slash demand for expensive compute. With training still accounting for most chip spending, any pullback in frontier model development could collapse semiconductor demand just as South Korea plans massive new supply. This dispersion and leverage echo past speculative peaks. To navigate these cross-currents, Felder emphasizes broad diversification, adding real assets, energy, and precious metals to traditional portfolios. Tactically leaning into out-of-favor areas with strong fundamental stories can provide resilience as the capital cycle rotates away from the most overcrowded trades.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:46 - Iran War and Oil Markets
00:04:20 - Gold Leading Commodity Prices
00:05:50 - SPR Refilling and Demand
00:12:47 - OPEC Supply Dynamics
00:18:57 - Attractive E&P Companies
00:21:53 - Precious Metals and Gold Outlook
00:26:29 - Fed Policy and Inflation Risks
00:36:25 - MAG7 and AI Profitability
00:43:35 - Cost of Compute & Open Models
00:49:05 - AI Bubble Popping
00:52:20 - Semis & Korea Performance
00:53:30 - Safer Investing
00:56:40 - Concluding Thoughts

Guest:

Jesse Felder — Founder, Editor, and Publisher of The Felder Report
Jesse Felder is the Founder, Editor, and Publisher of The Felder Report. He began his professional career at Bear, Stearns & Co. and later co-founded a multi-billion-dollar hedge fund firm headquartered in Santa Monica, California. Since moving to Bend, Oregon in 2000 and founding The Felder Report shortly thereafter his writing and research have been featured in major publications and websites like The Wall Street Journal, Barron's, Yahoo!Finance, Business Insider, RealVision, Investing.com, and more. Jesse also hosts and produces the Superinvestors and the Art of Worldly Wisdom podcast.
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Tom welcomes investor Robert Sinn to the show. Robert attributes the recent sharp sell-off in the gold and mining sector primarily to a strengthening US dollar and rising interest rates, describing the current environment as a "perfect negative storm" for junior miners. He notes that sentiment has reached extreme negative levels, comparable to the March 2020 and October 2022 lows, with technical indicators like the gold miner bull index hitting zero. Sinn suggests these oversold conditions, combined with improving seasonal trends, may be setting the stage for a tradable low, presenting buying opportunities for quality miners that have pulled back to key support levels from late 2025.

The discussion contrasts current market conditions with the early-year rally, where gold appeared to front-run geopolitical conflict. Sinn argues that the recent inflationary spike is transitory, driven by unique war-related oil disruptions that are now reversing. He contends the greater long-term threat is actually deflation, powered by accelerating technological advances in AI and robotics that could massively expand the supply of goods and services. This outlook informs his view that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to hike rates despite market fears, a misinterpretation that has pressured gold.

Sinn emphasizes relying on technical analysis and price action to filter out pervasive market noise and propaganda, especially during the recent Iran conflict. This approach prevented poor, fear-driven decisions in the oil market, which he now views as attractive again after the war premium evaporated. For mining investments, he focuses on catalysts across the sector lifecycle, from free cash flow in seniors to drill results and permitting milestones in juniors, citing Colombia-based Endina Copper’s consistent high-grade intercepts as a compelling example. He remains confident that precious and base metals are in a secular bull market, viewing the current correction as a classic shakeout within a long-term uptrend.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:02:48 - Dollar Impact on Mining
00:05:21 - Gold's January Performance
00:08:50 - Oversold Sentiment Concerns
00:09:48 - Deflationary Pressures Ahead
00:14:48 - Fed Policy Uncertainty
00:18:24 - Dollar Strength Analysis
00:23:40 - Technical Analysis Focus
00:29:23 - Mining Entry Opportunities
00:31:50 - Oil Sector Investments?
00:33:14 - Copper and Metal Fundamentals
00:37:21 - Company Evaluation Criteria
00:47:04 - Concluding Thoughts



Guest:

Robert Sinn — Investor, Trader, Market Commentator, and Author of the Gold Finger Capital Substack
Robert Sinn is a 20+ year market veteran whose research and insights are followed by hedge fund managers, investment professionals and thousands of readers/viewers across the globe. His introduction to the stock market came in 2003 when his Father shared a research note on a company called Northern Dynasty Minerals (NDM). Shares proceeded to rise more than 1000% over the next nine months. Robert was hooked, and the Junior mining sector became an obsession.

Across his extensive career Robert has acted as a market participant, commentator and trader performing dozens of site visits, CEO interviews and generating a wealth of research spanning multiple market cycles.
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Steve St. Angelo, founder of the SRSRocco Report, discussed a wide range of fundamental factors impacting precious metals, energy, and the broader economy, cautioning against sensationalist price targets. He argued that the recent parabolic surge in gold and silver, driven by massive FOMO, leverage, and specific narratives like a supposed Chinese export ban, has resulted in a necessary consolidation phase.

Current margins for miners are historically high, but a correction is likely not over, with technical gaps suggesting potential downside to $3,500 gold and $55 silver, especially during a broader market sell-off. A central theme was the fragility of energy markets. The shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz serves as a preview of future constraints, with the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve and Cushing inventories approaching critical functional minimums. This situation masks deeper issues, including opaque oil stockpile drawdowns in China.

Steve predicted that higher oil prices will manifest in the near term, contributing to economic stress. He identified the AI bubble as the primary catalyst for an impending recession, far more destructive than the dot-com crash, as trillions of dollars in data center buildout risk becoming stranded assets. The popping of this bubble, combined with liquidations by fundamentally unprofitable Bitcoin mining companies, is expected to trigger a significant deflationary wave. In this environment, St. Angelo sees investment demand, not industrial or central bank buying, as the ultimate long-term driver for silver, which will protect wealth as other financial assets suffer from peak energy constraints.

He also highlighted the market’s dysfunctional reality, noting that a spike to $300 silver would likely break the bullion dealer system, creating a liquidity crisis where sellers massively outnumber buyers.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:58 - Gold Silver Prod.  Costs & C.B.
00:04:23 - China Oil Inventory Drawdowns
00:05:49 - Strategic Petroleum Reserve Analysis
00:09:44 - Oil Inventory Timeline Risks
00:14:56 - AI Bubble and Recession Risks
00:19:43 - Federal Reserve Policy Challenges
00:24:04 - Precious Metals Miner Margins
00:26:00 - Gold Silver Risk Asset Behavior
00:28:26 - Future Gold Silver Outlook
00:35:03 - Trading Silver For Gold Oz.
00:42:51 - Bitcoin Miner Economics
00:49:18 - Concluding Thoughts



Guest:

Steve St. Angelo
Independent researcher Steve St. Angelo (SRSrocco) started to invest in precious metals in 2002. Later on in 2008, he began researching areas of the gold and silver market that, curiously, the majority of the precious metal analyst community have left unexplored. These areas include how energy and the falling EROI – Energy Returned On Invested – stand to impact the mining industry, precious metals, paper assets, and the overall economy.

Steve considers studying the impacts of EROI one of the most important aspects of his energy research. For the past several years, he has written scholarly articles in some of the top precious metals and financial websites.

You can find many of Steve’s articles on noteworthy sites, such as GoldSeek-SilverSeek, Market Oracle, Financial Sense, GoldSilver.com, SilverDoctors, TFMetals Report, Outsiderclub, SGTreport, BrotherJohnF, Hartgeld, Der-klare-blick, PeakProsperity, SilverStrategies, DollarCollapse, FurtureMoneyTrends, Sharpspixley, FinancialSurvivalNetwork, Pmbull, Deviantinvestor, PmBug, Wealthwire, and ZeroHedge.

#PreciousMetals #GoldSilver #EnergyCrisis #OilPrices #SPRInventory #CentralBanks #InvestmentDemand #SilverMining #GoldMining #AIBubble #MarketCrash #DeflationaryWave #BitcoinMining #PeakEnergy #WealthProtection
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Lobo Tiggre, author and founder of the Independent Speculator, joined your host Tom Bodrovics to discuss the complex interplay of geopolitics, monetary policy, and commodity markets. Lobo argued that the war in the Middle East, while not inherently inflationary, fuels inflation through the government’s response—specifically, massive deficit spending and money printing to finance the conflict. He warned that this pattern of "profligacy" historically dethrones currencies and ends empires, placing new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh in an impossible position between political pressure to cut rates and the economic need to fight inflation.

Recorded on: June 16, 2026

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The conversation then shifted to market opportunities. Lobo, a self-described "wolf" hunting for low-risk entries, revealed he sold all his gold and silver stocks near the January peak, not from bearishness but from disciplined profit-taking. He is now eyeing the oil sector, anticipating that a potential peace deal could cause an overreaction and a sharp drawdown in oil prices, creating a compelling buying opportunity for quality producers. He remains long-term bullish on copper and uranium, citing structural supply deficits and the paradigm shift toward nuclear energy for 24/7 power and energy independence. However, he cautioned that an AI-driven market scare could put those sectors on sale as well.

Tiggre also touched on the improving permitting environment for mining in the U.S. under the Trump administration, noting it creates an investable window before potential policy reversals. He discussed his research on "crappy producers," confirming they can outperform in a bull market due to margin expansion but require precise market timing to avoid devastating drawdowns. Ultimately, Tiggre emphasized a disciplined, contrarian approach: patiently waiting for clear "buy low" opportunities across commodities rather than chasing momentum, and using tools like selling puts to enter positions at advantageous prices.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:52 - Fed Policy and War Impact
00:05:42 - Peace Deal Prospects
00:12:37 - Supply Chain Rerouting
00:15:20 - SpaceX IPO Valuations
00:22:34 - Taking Profits?
00:29:08 - Gold Sentiment & Opportunity
00:37:53 - Demand For Metals & Permitting
00:41:14 - Bull Markets & Miner Performance
00:46:12 - Oil Sector Strategy
00:49:23 - Copper Market Constrained?
00:51:55 - Uranium Market Thoughts
00:59:40 - Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:
Website: https://independentspeculator.com
X: https://x.com/duediligenceguy
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/louis.james.965580/
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lobotiggre/

Lobo Tiggre, aka Louis James, is the founder and CEO of Louis James LLC, and the principal analyst and editor of IndependentSpeculator.com. He researched and recommended speculative opportunities in Casey Research publications from 2004 to 2018, writing under the name "Louis James." While with Casey Research, he learned the ins and outs of resource speculation from the legendary speculator Doug Casey.

Although frequently mistaken for one, Mr. Tiggre is not a professional geologist. However, his long tutelage under world-class geologists, writers, and investors resulted in an exceptional track record.

A fully transparent, documented, and verifiable track record is a central feature of the IndependentSpeculator.  Mr. Tiggre will put his own money into the speculations he writes about, so his readers will always know he has "skin in the game" with them.

#Inflation #MonetaryPolicy #FederalReserve #OilMarket #EnergyCrisis #Geopolitics #Investing #Gold #Silver #Uranium #Commodities #StockMarket #AITechnology #MarketAnalysis

Guest:

Lobo Tiggre — Author & Founder of the Independent Speculator
Lobo Tiggre, aka Louis James, is the founder and CEO of Louis James LLC, and the principal analyst and editor of IndependentSpeculator.com. He researched and recommended speculative opportunities in Casey Research publications from 2004 to 2018, writing under the name "Louis James." While with Casey Research, he learned the ins and outs of resource speculation from the legendary speculator Doug Casey.

Although frequently mistaken for one, Mr. Tiggre is not a professional geologist. However, his long tutelage under world-class geologists, writers, and investors resulted in an exceptional track record.

A fully transparent, documented, and verifiable track record is a central feature of the IndependentSpeculator. Mr. Tiggre will put his own money into the speculations he writes about, so his readers will always know he has "skin in the game" with them.
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Michael Green, Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager for Simplify Asset Management, presents a contrarian view on bonds, arguing they are now an attractive investment due to three factors.

First, the dominance of passive bond indices creates mechanical distortions, as market-cap weighting leads to misallocation during interest rate changes, undermining price discovery.

Second, broad inflation has largely ended, with demographics and high short-term rates pushing conditions toward deflation, while many confuse ongoing price-level increases with inflation.

Third, equities face high valuations and concentration risk, making bonds a safer option for income, especially for retirees. Green explains how banks’ "hold to maturity" bond holdings, trapped by unrealized losses from rate hikes, restrict credit provision. He proposed to the Treasury replacing these bonds at current coupons to free capital without a bailout, reducing systemic stress. He warns that monetary policy now acts as fiscal stimulus due to high debt-to-GDP, making rate cuts potentially contractionary and risking a crisis in housing and credit markets.

Green dismisses ideas like gold revaluation or gold-backed bonds as ineffective fantasy, emphasizing that bond market dysfunction is a global Western phenomenon tied to passive investing. He notes upcoming IPOs like SpaceX may increase equity supply and pressure valuations, but their scale is manageable compared to 2000. Ultimately, Green urges investors to recognize how bonds have shifted and to seek education on economic realities, advocating for forward-looking policy that improves infrastructure rather than reacts to crises.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:15 - Non-Consensus View on Bonds
00:01:55 - Understanding Inflation Properly
00:03:48 - Why Bonds Are Interesting Now
00:05:45 - Banking System Bond Problems
00:07:57 - Treasury Proposal to Free Capital
00:12:11 - Passive Investing Distortions
00:21:52 - Risks of Impending Crisis
00:28:01 - Federal Reserve Policy Challenges
00:35:07 - Inflation Impact on Consumers
00:44:26 - IPOs and Market Supply Issues
00:55:10 - Concluding Thoughts

Guest:

Michael Green — Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager for Simplify Asset Management
Michael is Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager for Simplify Asset Management. Michael has been noted for his work as a market theoretician and financial media participant. He is a graduate of the University of Pennsylvania and a CFA holder.
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Craig Tindale argues that the current global instability stems from humanity's tendency to mistake its complex models for reality. He explains that systems like central banking and globalized supply chains were built on narrow metrics, such as price efficiency, while ignoring broader consequences like sovereignty and resilience. This "delusional" approach led to the offshoring of industrial capacity, creating critical dependencies that are now being exposed. He draws a parallel with climate models, noting how specialized scientific silos fail to capture integrated system dynamics, such as how shipping fuel regulations reduced cloud cover and increased ocean heating.

The discussion highlights how blockages in key chokepoints, like the Strait of Hormuz, are triggering cascading downstream effects that the "just-in-time" global economy cannot easily absorb. Tindale details the often-overlooked petrochemical supply chain, explaining how disruptions in products like naphtha and sulfuric acid will take months to materialize into shortages for fertilizers, plastics, and metal refining. This delayed reaction, he notes, creates a false sense of security that does not fit political or market cycles.

On the economic front, Tindale predicts a necessary end to the era of perpetual asset inflation and consumption driven by the wealthy. He believes the US dollar will evolve rather than collapse, likely becoming more of a transactional currency as nations form competing blocs and gravitate toward a commodity-backed system. He criticizes the dominant geopolitical narratives of short wars and national primacy, suggesting that major powers like the US and China are locked in a checkmate that will damage all involved, with smaller nations suffering the worst consequences. Ultimately, he advises cultivating personal resilience, community, and a capacity to tolerate uncertainty rather than seeking definitive predictions.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:40 - Models and Civilizational Renewal
00:08:36 - Understanding Climate Models
00:14:34 - Borrowing from the Future
00:17:17 - Just-in-Time Inventory Issues
00:22:00 - Downstream Oil Consequences
00:32:50 - Market Responses to Closures
00:38:10 - Dollar and Bond Impacts
00:46:50 - Potential for More Conflicts
00:51:50 - New Reserve Currency Basket
01:00:40 - Finding Credible Information
01:05:42 - Wrap Up

Guest:

Craig Tindale — Private Investor and Publish of the CTindale Substack
Craig Tindale is a private investor who has spent nearly four decades working in software development, business strategy, and infrastructure planning, including in leadership positions at Telstra, Oracle, and IBM. Additionally, he has direct experience working in east-to-west supply chains, including as the CEO and Asia Regional Director for DataDirect Technologies.

He’s now pivoted to investing in groundbreaking ideas such as drone reforestation through Air Seed Technologies, and uses his knowledge of Chinese industrial strategy and Western tech demand to identify the choke points in Critical Metals markets. Most recently he released the white paper, Critical Materials: A Strategic Analysis, which offers a systems synthesis on how the race for rare earths and the return of material constraints is shaping geopolitical relationships.
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Michael Kao, a former hedge fund manager and commodities trader, joined host Tom Bodrovics to discuss his view that the economy is walking a tightrope between two starkly different outcomes. Kao outlined a framework with four macro quadrants, defining a "Goldilocks" scenario of disinflationary growth and a "stagflationary" environment of slow growth with high inflation. His original thesis for the Trump 2.0 playbook anticipated the Goldilocks path, powered by AI-driven productivity and reshoring initiatives he calls a "reverse Marshall Plan," which could reduce the deficit much like the mid-1990s. This outlook has been severely disrupted by the unexpected Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has injected a supply-side inflationary shock into the system. This oil-led inflation is demand-destructive, essentially acting as a tax on consumers, and differs from the demand-led inflation of 2021.

A tour of current macro indicators highlights this tension: inflation measures (CPI, PPI, PCE) are rising, while labor and headline growth metrics remain surprisingly resilient. However, the consumer is being squeezed, with retail sales, spending, and consumer confidence declining alongside a sharp rise in inflation expectations. Kao warns that many downstream inflationary effects, especially in food and petrochemicals, have yet to fully materialize. He believes the Federal Reserve is effectively "boxed," with no good case for either cutting rates and stoking inflation or hiking into a supply shock that is already hurting consumers. Despite the short-term turmoil, Kao remains optimistic that powerful secular deflationary forces from AI will ultimately reassert themselves. He cited staggering examples of AI-driven efficiency that could anchor long-term growth.

For positioning, he personally seeks safety in diversified, uncorrelated streams of passive income from assets like oil and gas private equity and idiosyncratic credit, avoiding a traditional passive beta approach. His parting thought highlighted the modern "fog of war," where deliberate obfuscation makes it crucial to watch market clues for what is truly transpiring beneath the geopolitical chaos.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:01:05 - Defining Macro Scenarios
00:07:40 - Iran War Macro Impact
00:10:22 - Tariffs and Demand Elasticity
00:16:16 - Macro Indicators Overview
00:21:25 - Consumer and Housing Metrics
00:23:30 - PPI CPI and Data Trust
00:27:38 - Federal Reserve Roundtable
00:31:36 - Goldilocks Scenario Outlook
00:35:53 - Oil Demand Destruction Risks
00:42:18 - Fed Rate Policy Challenges
00:46:07 - AI Productivity Boom
00:52:55 - Investment Positioning Strategy
00:56:06 - Urban Kaoberg Project
01:03:00 - Concluding Thoughts

Guest:

Michael Kao — Private Family Office Investor & Author - Former Hedge Fund Manager & Commodities Trader
Michael Kao is a seasoned investor and retired portfolio manager with 25 years of experience in commodities trading and hedge fund management. He has a lifelong passion for the markets and a keen interest in geopolitics, which has lead him to manage his own investments and publish his views on his SubStack Website – Kaoboy Musings.

Known for his out of consensus calls that often wind up becoming consensus later on, Michael Kao strives to cut through the noise in his musings by introducing mental models from other disciplines and injecting ideas from eclectic topics. He aims to educate, encourage out-of-the-box thinking, elevate above the noise and entertain.
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Francis Hunt, founder of The Market Sniper, presents a technical analysis centered on South Korea as a potential early indicator of a coming AI bubble deflation. He highlights the KOSPI index's extreme 291% surge in just over a year, driven almost entirely by two chip-making giants, Samsung and SK Hynix, which now constitute roughly 50% of the market. This narrow, unsustainable rally is occurring simultaneously with a critical divergence: foreign professional money is flowing out of South Korean equities, while the void is being filled by a massive surge in domestic retail margin debt. This setup, he argues, makes the market acutely vulnerable. The core of his thesis rests on the Korean won, which he predicts faces a 50% contagion collapse against the US dollar.

Hunt explains that historically, a strengthening won accompanied equity inflows, but the currency has recently begun weakening despite record sales from its chip champions. This breakdown in correlation signals that when the AI tide recedes, the currency could enter a crisis, potentially triggering a broader high-tech Asian contagion.

He notes that a similar vulnerability exists in Japan, whose equity boom he also predicted, though he sees Japan as less narrowly concentrated in AI. Hunt foresees a destructive bust cycle characterized by forced selling, rising unemployment, and a hollowing of the middle class, which could pave the way for increased social division and centralized control mechanisms like UBI and CBDCs. He criticizes the passive investing complex, arguing that the upcoming SpaceX IPO is structured to provide exit liquidity for early investors by compelling ETFs to buy the stock, effectively socializing potential losses onto retail pensions. To navigate this environment, he advises a retreat from overvalued tech, advocating for capital preservation in hard assets like gold and silver. He emphasizes that dispassionate chart analysis remains the most reliable source of truth, with the current setup offering significant opportunities for currency trades and options during major stock market corrections.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:16 - South Korea Market Opportunity
00:07:08 - Currency Collapse Warning
00:11:15 - Foreign Investment Withdrawal
00:15:01 - USD KRW Chart Review
00:18:14 - Japan Market Comparison
00:21:59 - AI Bubble Deflation Signs
00:25:22 - Economic/AI Bust Scenarios
00:29:50 - Middle Class and Passive Risks
00:36:50 - Market Outlook and Advice
00:41:16 - Inflation & Energy Demand
00:45:35 - Gold, Liquidity, & India
00:51:38 - Accurate Info & Wrap Up

Guest:

Francis Hunt — Renegade Trader, Analyst, & Founder of The Market Sniper
Francis is a trader, first and foremost. Unlike most educators in the trading space, Francis walks the walk and talks the talk, with 30 years of experience trading his personal capital on various markets and instruments. Through this passion for trading and his relentless study of markets and economic theory, he uses the Hunt Volatility Funnel trading methodology, a systemized approach, to answer the critical question: What is the next most profitable trade?

He believes the actual price of an asset is the most accurate reflection of all the factors that influence it. Practical technical analysis, the study of price action over time, is needed to formulate profitable trade ideas. Indeed, with all the market manipulation and high-frequency trading operations currently in play, technical analysis is all that can be relied upon when it comes to formulating future price trends. A trained eye can often spot such manipulative practices, as is the case with HVF traders. Therefore, the HVF methodology is based purely on technical analysis.

Francis is passionate about sharing his knowledge and understanding of markets by utilizing his HVF trading methodology. With entertaining anecdotes and the careful guidance of his students, he has already trained a large community of hundreds of traders and helped them transform from complete newbies to seasoned trading professionals.

He genuinely loves sharing his knowledge and strategies with others who are committed to finding freedom through trading. Plus, teaching strengthens his trading abilities while helping to build a vibrant community of successful traders.
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Kevin Muir expresses deep skepticism about the looming SpaceX IPO, suggesting its astronomical valuation could mark a peak in market enthusiasm, reminiscent of the AOL-Time Warner deal. Beyond sentiment, the sheer supply of new stock from major IPOs like SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI will require capital that must come from selling other assets. This comes as institutional cash levels are near record lows and corporate buybacks, historically a key source of stock demand, are shrinking because tech giants are redirecting cash flow into AI infrastructure.

Muir believes stock market weakness could arrive before the IPO date as investors sell to make room, and he highlights the dangerous disconnect in the equity risk premium. With bond yields now exceeding the earnings yield of stocks, long-term return models are flashing warnings, even as short-term momentum persists. He analyzes the current market through his concept of "rolling mini bubbles," where speculative manias in sectors like silver, EVs, and now semiconductors inflate and deflate cyclically. Rather than fighting these bubbles, he argues for identifying and riding the next one, pointing to agriculture as a candidate.

The AI boom faces acute skepticism. Muir suspects the recent surge in GPU usage is artificially driven by companies mandating AI adoption and may not represent durable demand. He warns that the massive capital expenditure and circular profit dynamics among tech giants create a fragile, self-reinforcing feedback loop, with concentration risk dangerously high in a handful of stocks. On geopolitics, he sees energy and defense spending as a long-term inflationary force, yet remains bullish on Japan due to its cheap currency and vast domestic savings. On gold, he dismisses the old correlation with real yields, arguing that sustained Chinese diversification away from US assets will drive the next leg higher, with the recent pullback presenting a buying opportunity.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:55 - SpaceX IPO Overvaluation
00:02:06 - Potential Market Peak
00:03:40 - Increased Stock/Equity Supply
00:05:23 - AI Spending Replacing Buybacks
00:10:13 - Equity Risk Premium Discussion
00:14:38 - Market Seasonality Analysis
00:16:35 - Mini Rolling Bubbles
00:24:08 - Fed's Role in Markets
00:27:10 - Kevin Warsh Criticism
00:34:00 - Current Fed Policy Stance
00:41:28 - AI Boom and Risks
00:59:24 - Japan Market Outlook
01:05:06 - Gold Investment Perspective
01:09:00 - Concluding Thoughts

Guest:

Kevin Muir — Publisher of The Macro Tourist Newsletter & Co-Host of The Market Huddle
Kevin Muir started as an institutional equity derivative trader for a big Canadian bank in the 1990s. In 2000, Kevin decided that bank-life wasn't for him, so he traded his own account for the next two decades. Along the way, he started writing the MacroTourist newsletter, which he describes as an "almost daily" letter about the markets that still manages to have fun. The MacroTourist newsletter attempts to bring a unique take on a variety of different financial topics. Kevin's tagline is, "All I Bring to the Party is 25 Years of Mistakes."

Kevin Muir is a CFA and a graduate of the University of Toronto economics program.
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📈 The Competent Investor
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Michael Pento, President of Pento Portfolio Strategies, identifies a dangerous "triumvirate of bubbles" in credit, real estate, and equities as the most precarious factor facing markets. He argues that every credible metric, from total debt-to-GDP to home price-to-income and stock market capitalization-to-GDP ratios, is at an all-time record high. This extreme overvaluation has been sustained by aggressive Federal Reserve money printing and interest rate repression under Chair Jerome Powell, which Pento blames for destroying the middle class's purchasing power and creating a massive wealth disparity between asset owners and wage earners.

Pento sees the 40-year bull market in bonds as definitively over, with yields rising globally due to an intractable inflation problem and a sovereign debt insolvency issue. He notes that foreign demand for U.S. debt is waning due to sanctions and reduced trade, removing a key anchor for yields. This environment, he warns, makes double-digit bond yields a realistic possibility, which would devastate overleveraged credit markets, stocks, and real estate. He predicts the credit bubble will break first, with stress in private credit and junk bonds spilling over into equities and housing. While he hopes new Fed leadership might engineer a cathartic recession by shrinking the balance sheet, he doubts the political will exists to endure the necessary pain.

Pento’s investment model currently positions for a reflationary to stagflationary environment, favoring short-duration bonds, commodities, and energy while reducing gold exposure. He cautions investors to abandon traditional 60/40 portfolios, as both stocks and bonds could decline simultaneously, and stresses the critical need for active management in these historically overvalued and fragile markets.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:23 - Triumvirate of Market Bubbles
00:01:58 - Federal Reserve QE and Powell
00:03:18 - Inflation and Middle Class Destruction
00:05:25 - Kevin Worsh and Fed Balance Sheet
00:06:24 - Interest Rate Repression and Debt
00:11:28 - Rising Global Yields and Risks
00:14:27 - Double-Digit Rates Possibility
00:16:28 - Credit Bubble & Recession
00:23:52 - Investment Strategy and Positioning
00:27:48 - US Mid-Term Election
00:32:35 - Concluding Thoughts

Guest:

Michael Pento — President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies
Michael Pento is the President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies with more than 30 years of professional investment experience. He worked on the floor of the NYSE during the mid-90s. Pento served as an economist for both Delta Global and EuroPacific Capital. He was also the portfolio creator and consultant to Delta/Claymore's commodity portfolios, which were distributed through Claymore/Guggenheim's sales network.
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Doomberg analyzes the accelerating convergence of global crises, framing the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East as battles within a broader World War III that began in 2014. He argues these conflicts are catalysts revealing the fragility of a late-stage US dollar-centric financial system, where Western sovereign debts have reached mathematically unsustainable levels. The recent strategic pact between Russia and China to advance a multi-polar framework is seen as a historic step toward de-dollarization, punishing the US for abusing its financial chokehold. Doomberg notes that paradoxically, heavily sanctioned nations like Iran and Russia have built resiliency that will serve them well when the current system collapses, as major Western currencies and bonds are all correlated proxies destined to fail together.

Regarding the energy shock from the Strait of Hormuz closure, Doomberg admits his earlier prediction of $150 oil was wrong, attributing the muted price response to a massive inventory overhang and deceptive market practices in 2025 that are now being burned off at higher prices. The near-term threat remains a full-blown regional war that could cause an uninsulated global depression, though the long-run outlook for commodity prices is lower due to supply responses. The current ceasefire is viewed as a necessity for the US and Israel, given missile shortages and Iran's credible ability to devastate Gulf energy infrastructure that remains defenseless.

Shifting to Canada, Doomberg expresses optimism that political roadblocks to energy exports are clearing, predicting Mark Carney will succeed in building a pipeline to unlock Alberta's vast resources, analogous to Nixon going to China. He dismisses Canadian insolvency fears given its immense per-capita resource base. Finally, he underscores his analytical method of deliberately seeking and grading a wide spectrum of global propaganda to construct a more predictive, holistic view of world events.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:52 - Sovereign Debt Crisis Catalyst
00:04:53 - Global Yields and Japan
00:07:30 - Sanctioned Countries Resiliency
00:08:57 - Energy Shock Impacts
00:10:30 - Medium-Term Optimism Outlook
00:16:44 - Religious War Undertones
00:19:20 - Congressional War Constraints
00:21:33 - Oil Price Predictions Reviewed
00:26:11 - Canada Energy & Resources
00:34:45 - News Flow & Information
00:40:32 - China & Trump's Claims
00:49:52 - Foreign Policy Whiplash
00:53:17 - Energy & Datacenters
00:57:19 - Wrap Up

Guest:

Doomberg — Head Writer For The Doomberg Team and Creator of the Doomberg Substack
Doomberg is the anonymous publishing arm of a bespoke consulting firm providing advisory services to family offices and c-suite executives. Its principals apply their decades of experience across heavy industry, private equity, and finance to deliver innovative thinking and clarity to complex problems.
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📈 The Competent Investor
Markets, macro, and the minds that move money.

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Tony Greer, trader, editor of 'The Morning Navigator', and co-founder of 'The Macrodirt Podcast', joined Tom Bodrovics to share a trader’s perspective on navigating today’s chaotic markets. Greer emphasized a core philosophy: “Don’t worry about being right, worry about getting it right,” prioritizing P&L over ego and reacting flexibly to new information. He views the brewing energy crisis from the Strait of Hormuz closure as a significant, underappreciated risk, markets may only wake up when tangible shortages hit personal convenience, not through forward-looking pricing. While oil charts remain constructive and he expects high prices for longer, political distractions and Trump’s headlines create confusion, though many are noise to be canceled.

Greer sees a potential replay of 2022 with headline inflation is re-emerging, as seen in recent CPI and PPI prints, which could pressure tech and growth stocks while benefiting hard assets and value. He is positioned long energy, oil services, gold, and miners, noting that gold miners’ sell-off defies their record margins and cheap valuations, making them compelling buys even if they shake out weak hands first. Technology’s AI bubble appears extended, and while he’d short a parabolic blow-off top, he remains nimble, as illustrated by his prepared exit from homebuilders when rates rose. The dollar and yields serve as guides, not trades unto themselves.

Beyond markets, Greer reflected on his inaugural TG Macro conference, finding the deep human need for personal connection its greatest lesson. The event’s sentiment marker—broad consensus to own gold and miners—later proved a contrarian signal, a reminder of crowd psychology. He plans a second conference in Nashville for February 18–19, 2027, with a rotating mix of speakers. Greer stressed the restorative power of analog activities—cooking, guitar, family—and urged listeners to unplug, shake hands, and foster real connection, a balance essential in the digital age.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:01:12 - Trading Mindset and Flexibility
00:03:28 - Global Energy Crisis Concerns
00:06:40 - Trump Policies and Markets
00:10:10 - Oil Charts and Planning
00:14:20 - Gold Miners Outlook
00:18:24 - Energy Sector Positioning
00:27:30 - Trading & Positioning Shorts
00:30:15 - CPI, Fed, Dollar and Rates
00:35:00 - Morning Market Analysis Routine
00:38:20 - Conference Reflections
00:42:30 - AI & Wrap Up

Guest:

Tony Greer — Trader, Editor of 'The Morning Navigator', and Co-Founder of 'The Macrodirt Podcast'
After graduating from Cornell University in 1990 Tony followed in his father’s footsteps to a Wall Street trading operation. He quickly learned his career path would be vastly different. He says, "I would not be sitting in the same seat on the same trading desk managing the same risk for the same firm for over 30 years."

We have clearly entered a new era in financial markets.

He began in the treasury department of Sumitomo Bank on the 107th floor of the World Trade Center downtown Manhattan. Tony was an FX trading assistant while the Quantum Fund was breaking the Bank of England in 1992.

In 1993 he joined Union Bank of Switzerland as an FX and commodities trader, spending half a year as a Vice President in their Zurich treasury department. Then returned to New York City early in 1995 to join J. Aron & Company, the privately held commodity trading arm of Goldman Sachs.

He managed risk for the Goldman Sachs Commodities Index, in precious and base metals trading, and futures and options trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

He started his first venture in 2000 – Machine Trading which happened right before the tech bubble burst. That decision was his first excruciating life lesson in market timing. It turned out to be an extremely valuable learning experience.

He believes there is a massive opportunity with both the unprecedented situation in global markets and in the way financial news is consumed. In 2016, he started TG Macro, LLC.
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📈 The Competent Investor
Markets, macro, and the minds that move money.

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In this episode, Tom Bodrovics speaks with the always forthright hedge fund manager Chris MacIntosh about the current state of markets and society, which MacIntosh characterizes as a historic “blow-off top” encompassing both financial excess and social absurdity. He argues that the system is breaking down due to unsustainable debt and geopolitical conflict that no major power has an incentive to end. MacIntosh frames the current situation as an “age of consequences” resulting from years of underinvestment in critical resources, particularly energy. He highlights a severe and complacent energy market, with over 12 million barrels per day offline due to conflict and supply chain disruption, far exceeding past crises. This reality is inflationary and contradicts deflationary predictions.

MacIntosh stresses that energy is the feedstock for nearly everything, from plastics to fertilizer, and shortages will have profound second-order effects. From an investment perspective, he advocates rotating away from speculative, overvalued assets like AI hype stocks and toward tangible, essential commodities that satisfy Maslow’s hierarchy of needs: energy, precious metals, and agriculture. He notes gold is already in a bull market against most other assets. MacIntosh also emphasizes the importance of jurisdictional risk, pointing to Latin America, particularly Argentina, as a region with uncontested energy resources. He contrasts the “parasitic” Western economic system with a more prepared and productive Chinese system, which has strategically stockpiled resources.

Ultimately, MacIntosh advises listeners to take personal agency, structure assets to be out of reach of governments, and develop productive skills rather than relying on politicians or passive consumption. The core message is to acknowledge the systemic risks, prepare for a world where net worth may be calculated in kilojoules rather than dollars, and take action to create solutions rather than bemoaning the state of affairs.

Timestamps
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:14 – Rising Global Absurdity
00:04:32 – Asset Protection Strategies
00:06:02 – Incentives to Prolong Conflict
00:10:26 – Energy Supply Shortages
00:14:45 – Oil Market Realities
00:19:44 – Geographic Investment Risks
00:24:34 – China’s Strategic Preparations
00:26:25 – Clash of Economic Systems
00:33:29 – Debt Market Collapse Risks
00:38:21 – Capital Controls Emerging
00:48:52 – Age of Consequences
00:53:38 – Exiting Financial Casino
01:04:24 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest:

Chris MacIntosh — Hedge Fund Manager and Founder of Capitalist Exploits
Raised in Southern Africa, Chris Macintosh has since lived and invested from sevent different countries. After a career at top-tier investment banks such as JP Morgan, Lehman, Robert Flemmings and Invesco, Chris became tired of corporate life, and has since built and sold multiple million dollar companies, overseen $35 million into venture capital, all the while investing full time, and managing his own and private client wealth.
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In this episode of The Competent Investor, Chris Vermeulen, founder of The Technical Traders, discusses the current market environment with your host Tom. Vermeulen observes that the market is exhibiting signs of a potential blow-off top, driven by FOMO and a strong risk-on sentiment. Investors are piling into technology, AI, small caps, and speculative stocks, while defensive sectors like utilities and dividend-paying stocks lag. He emphasizes that extreme bullish sentiment is a contrarian indicator, warning that when the herd is all moving in one direction, it may signal a crowded trade. However, he cautions that this does not mean the market cannot go higher; bubbles can persist.

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Vermeulen explains his approach to market analysis, which integrates price, time, and sentiment. He uses money flow indicators to determine when to be long or short, rather than relying on news or geopolitical events. He recounts how many subscribers missed a recent rally due to fears over the Iran war, highlighting the importance of following a disciplined strategy and not cherry-picking trades based on emotion. Regarding precious metals, Vermeulen notes that silver has shown a strong breakout, but gold has not confirmed the move. He advises waiting for gold to signal a clear uptrend before committing to the sector. He also discusses the dollar’s indecision and its correlation with metals and equities.

Vermeulen recommends that investors manage risk by raising cash and not adding to positions after a strong rally. For younger investors, he stresses the importance of accumulating assets like real estate, equities, and whole life insurance to build long-term wealth. He concludes that while the equity trend remains up, caution is warranted, and money may rotate into precious metals if the stock market stalls.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:14 – Market Euphoria and FOMO
00:01:54 – Sentiment as Caution Signal
00:04:04 – Potential Market Extension
00:06:44 – Inner Market Analysis
00:09:41 – Geopolitical Trading Lessons
00:15:02 – Signals for Trend Reversal
00:18:50 – Debt and Financial Reset
00:21:00 – Precious Metals & Charts
00:32:00 – Market Direction Overview
00:36:47 – Oil & Copper Charts
00:41:40 – Risk Management Strategies
00:47:00 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest:

Chris Vermeulen — Founder & Chief Investment Officer, The Technical Traders
Chris Vermeulen is the Founder & Chief Investment Officer of The Technical Traders and the visionary mind behind Asset Revesting. In his book Asset Revesting – How to Exclusively Hold Assets Rising in Value, Profit During Bear Markets, and Continue Building Wealth in Retirement, he lays out this investment framework.

Chris launched his financial career at 16, parlaying his knack for trading and risk management into funding his final year of college, where he earned a business diploma in operations management. By his twenties, he had achieved financial independence as a full-time entrepreneur and trader. After a setback—blowing up a trading account—Chris dedicated himself to treating trading as a business, completing the Trading Strategy Mastery and Trading Is Your Business courses.

A technical analysis expert, he devises systematic methods to spot market opportunities and control portfolio risk, rejecting traditional buy-and-hold approaches that cling to depreciating assets. His efficient asset allocation models balance short- and long-term strategies to minimize drawdowns and consistently outperform benchmarks. Those seeking reliable capital preservation and growth turn to his proven techniques.
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📈 The Competent Investor
Markets, macro, and the minds that move money.

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Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist for Quill Intelligence LLC, for a discussion on the economic landscape and the Federal Reserve’s role. DiMartino Booth highlights the complexities surrounding Jerome Powell’s potential departure from the Fed, noting that while Powell has faced criminal charges, he is likely to stay to protect his integrity and prevent a Trump-appointed successor. She draws a historical parallel to Mariner Eccles’ tenure, suggesting that Powell’s presence ensures a separation between the Treasury and the Fed’s monetary policy.

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The conversation also touches on the Fed’s communication strategies and the potential for a liquidity crisis, with DiMartino Booth advising incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to prepare for such an event. Danielle emphasizes that the U.S. is already in a recession, evidenced by job losses and GDP revisions. She points out the impact of rising oil prices and the potential for a prolonged recession, noting that the oil shock could exacerbate existing economic issues. Danielle also explores the implications of high levels of household debt and the potential for a debt jubilee or other unconventional economic measures.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:40 – Powell’s Reasons to Stay
00:02:51 – Eccles Historical Precedent
00:04:08 – Fed Re-engineering Ideas
00:06:13 – Internal Fed Dissent
00:08:17 – Advice for Kevin Warsh
00:09:35 – Liquidity Crisis Strategies
00:11:33 – Real Estate Credit Woes
00:14:33 – Recession Thresholds?
00:17:13 – Job Losses Analysis
00:19:26 – Credit Market Warnings
00:21:19 – Midterm Election Risks
00:23:08 – Policy Tools Discussion
00:25:12 – AI-Proofing Career Advice
00:26:49 – Monitoring MOVE Index
00:27:48 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest:

Danielle DiMartino Booth — CEO & Chief Strategist for QI Research
Danielle DiMartino Booth is CEO and Chief Strategist for Quill Intelligence LLC, a research and analytics firm.

DiMartino Booth set out to launch a Research Revolution, redefining how market intelligence is conceived and delivered, with the goal of not only guiding portfolio managers but promoting financial literacy. To build QI, she brought together a core team of investing veterans in analyzing the trends and providing critical analysis of what drives the markets.

Since its inception, commentary and data from DiMartino Booth's The Daily Feather have appeared in other financial sources such as Bloomberg, CNBC, Fox Business, Institutional Investor, Yahoo Finance, The Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, Seeking Alpha, TD Ameritrade, TheStreet.com, and more.

A global thought leader on monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded Quill Intelligence in 2018. She is the author of FED UP: An Insider's Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a full-time columnist for Bloomberg View, a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets.

Before Quill, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, serving as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy.

DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette, where she worked in the fixed income, public equity, and private equity markets. DiMartino Booth earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University.
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Tom welcomes Josh Young, CIO of Bison Interests, to discuss the potential for a prolonged and sticky energy shock stemming from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the Iranian conflict. He emphasizes the profound uncertainty surrounding the conflict’s duration, noting that neither military participants nor analysts can predict its timeline, which explains recent oil price volatility. Young challenges the prevailing view that global oil inventories of roughly 8.4 billion barrels are insufficient, arguing that the system can absorb a much larger drawdown—potentially another billion barrels or more—before facing severe physical shortages. He warns that as inventories deplete, the relationship between supply and price becomes nonlinear, with prices potentially accelerating from $125 to $200 or $250 per barrel if the strait remains closed for several more months.

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Young also addresses the resilience of energy infrastructure, observing that refineries and export facilities often return to operation faster than expected due to spare equipment and skilled labor, though LNG facilities face unique supply chain constraints. He notes that general equity markets have largely ignored the crisis, partly because energy stocks represent only about 4% of the S&P 500, but also due to institutional underallocation and a persistent belief that oil is a declining industry. This creates a favorable environment for energy investors, as companies buy back stock at discounts and pay high dividends.

Finally, Young highlights the risk of AI-generated misinformation, particularly in financial markets, and stresses the growing value of original, critical analysis over algorithmically produced content. He concludes that while high oil prices could devastate emerging economies, the current moderate prices suggest significant upside potential remains.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:26 – Strait of Hormuz Closure
00:01:53 – Market Ignoring Conflict
00:03:43 – Oil Inventory Drawdown
00:07:33 – Non-Linear Price Dynamics
00:17:13 – Recent Infrastructure Attacks
00:20:21 – Global Energy ‘Explosions’
00:23:33 – Infrastructure Resilience Analysis
00:26:24 – LNG Crude Recovery Differences
00:29:19 – Fuel Shortages Impacts
00:39:25 – UAE Leaving OPEC
00:44:34 – Equity Markets Response
00:50:29 – Gold Leading Oil & Fiat
01:00:00 – AI Info Feedback Loop
01:09:06 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest:

Josh Young — Chief Investment Officer & Founder, Bison Interests
Joshua Young has been professionally investing in publicly traded oil and gas securities for nearly two decades, achieving benchmark outperformance as Bison’s CIO. Josh possesses a deep understanding of the E&P business model and operating environment, with notable experience as Chairman of Canadian E&P company RMP Energy (rebranded as Ironbridge Resources). Under Josh’s leadership, the company achieved a successful turnaround, outperforming peers and ultimately being acquired at a 78% premium. Josh is the author of numerous articles on oil & gas investments and is a frequent guest speaker at various energy industry conferences.

Prior to Bison, Josh began his career as a management consultant for Fortune 500 companies and private equity firms. He later worked as an investment analyst for a private equity fund and served as an energy investment analyst at a multi-billion-dollar single-family office, which was nominated as Institutional Investor’s Single Family Office of the Year in 2008. Josh holds a B.S. in Economics with honors from the University of Chicago.
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Willem Middelkoop, author of “The Big Reset” and founder of the Commodity Discovery Fund, discusses the geopolitical and economic impacts of recent conflicts, particularly the war in Ukraine and tensions around Iran. He argues that the U.S. has lost significant geopolitical influence, while China has gained, and the Strait of Hormuz’s closure has put pressure on oil prices. Middelkoop predicts that oil prices could reach $150 per barrel to achieve real demand destruction, leading to a worldwide recession.

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He also warns of a potential sovereign debt crisis, citing Jamie Dimon’s concerns about a severe downturn in credit markets. Middelkoop highlights the shifting dynamics in the mining industry, with governments now recognizing the importance of critical metals. He expects a multi-decade bull market in commodities due to shortages, currency debasement, and geopolitical tensions. Despite recent sell-offs, he sees gold and silver as safe havens and expects higher prices, especially as central banks continue to buy gold.

He also discusses the potential for a silver short squeeze and the impact of higher energy prices on mining margins. The conversation touches on the broader implications for the global economy, including the potential for a new international monetary architecture and the role of gold. Middelkoop emphasizes the importance of diversification and risk management, noting that his fund has adopted a more defensive stance with a large cash position. He also discusses the potential for nuclear and renewable energy sources to gain prominence due to the current energy crisis.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:28 – Peace Scenario in Conflicts
00:02:58 – Oil Prices and Supply
00:06:38 – Sovereign Debt Crisis
00:09:16 – Market Correction Risks
00:11:14 – Dirty Industry & Recognition
00:12:45 – Commodity Bull Market Outlook
00:15:38 – Gold Sell-Off Explanation
00:18:27 – Gold’s Monetary Reset Role
00:21:37 – Declining Mine Production Trends
00:23:47 – Silver Price Surge Potential
00:28:56 – Nuclear Energy Acceleration
00:30:47 – Commodity Diversification Strategies
00:42:40 – Importance of Research
00:44:55 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest:

Willem Middelkoop — Author and Founder of the Commodity Discovery Fund
Willem Middelkoop is the founder of the Commodity Discovery Fund and also an author. He became a well-known personality through his work as a stock market commentator for the Dutch business television channel RTLZ.

Middelkoop predicted the credit crisis's onset in his book "Als de dollar valt" (If the dollar falls) in 2007. Subsequent publications were "De permanente oliecrisis" (The permanent oil crisis) – 2008, "Overleef de kredietcrisis" (Surviving the credit crisis) – 2009, "Goud en het geheim van geld" (Gold and the secret of money) – 2012, and The Big Reset - 2013. In total, he sold more than 100,000 copies of his books.

The Commodity Discovery Fund was established in the summer of 2008. It started with three million euros and 22 participants. By the end of 2023, it had grown to about 2,000 participants and €104 million in assets under management.
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Martin Armstrong, CEO & Chairman of Armstrong Economics, shares his insights on global politics, economic strategies, and the current geopolitical landscape with host Tom Bodrovics. Armstrong, with 50 years of experience, critiques the lack of long-term strategic thinking in governments, citing examples such as the Iran and Ukraine conflicts. He argues that leaders often prioritize short-term gains, like winning the next election, over addressing critical issues like national debt and defense spending.

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Armstrong also discusses the impact of the national debt, highlighting that interest expenditures are now exceeding military expenditures, a situation he finds alarming yet predictable. Armstrong delves into the complexities of the Middle East, particularly the Iranian conflict, and the strategic blunders made by various administrations. He criticizes the lack of foresight in military interventions, using the Iraq War as an example, and warns about the potential for a sovereign debt crisis in the Middle East, which could have far-reaching economic consequences. He also discusses the interconnectedness of global economies and the potential for a liquidity crisis caused by the Iranian war, affecting not just oil but also critical resources like fertilizer and copper.

The conversation also touches on the political landscape in the United States and Europe, with Armstrong expressing concern about the infiltration of government by individuals with personal vendettas, leading to endless wars and political instability. He criticizes the lack of strategic thinking in current leadership, using examples like the Biden administration and the influence of figures like Netanyahu and Zelensky. Armstrong predicts a steep recession in the United States and a depression in Europe by 2028, driven by economic policies and geopolitical tensions. Armstrong’s pessimistic outlook extends to the future of global politics, suggesting that the current system is broken and in need of a major overhaul. He proposes a direct democracy as a potential solution, where citizens vote on critical issues like war, rather than leaving decisions to a small group of unelected officials.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:04:35 – Leaders’ Strategic Shortcomings
00:05:27 – Incentivizing Better Politicians
00:09:18 – Washington Lacks Intelligence
00:12:30 – Upcoming Conflict Escalation
00:16:07 – EU Election Rigging
00:19:45 – US Dollar Reserve Strength
00:25:22 – Sovereign Debt Crisis
00:29:45 – Strait Hormuz Ramifications
00:33:20 – Iran’s Educated Society
00:35:22 – Energy Crisis Comparison
00:42:35 – Fertilizer & Cost Push Inflation
00:50:53 – Neocon Influence on Trump
01:00:09 – Government Infiltration
01:07:38 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest:

Martin Armstrong — CEO & Chairman of Armstrong Economics Ltd.
Martin Armstrong is the Owner and Researcher for the website Armstrong Economics. He is the former chairman of Princeton Economics International Ltd. He is best known for his economic predictions based on the Economic Confidence Model, which he developed.

At age 13, Armstrong began working at a coin and stamp dealership in Pennsauken, New Jersey. After buying a bag of rare Canadian pennies, he became a millionaire in 1965 at the age of 15. He continued to work on weekends through high school, finding the real-world exciting, for this was the beginning of the collapse of the gold standard. Martin became captivated by this shocking revelation that there were not just booms and busts, but also peaks and valleys that would last centuries.

Armstrong progressed from gold coin investments to following commodity prices for precious metals. In 1973, he began publishing commodity market predictions as a hobby, and in 1983 Armstrong began accepting paid subscriptions for a forecast newsletter.

"In Armstrong's view of the world where boom-bust cycles occur like clockwork every 8.6 years, what matters is his record as a forecaster. He called Russia's financial collapse in 1998, using a model that also pointed to a peak just before the Japanese stock market crashed in 1989. These days, as the European sovereign-debt crisis roils markets worldwide, he reminds readers of his October 1997 prediction that the creation of the euro "will merely transform currency speculation into bond speculation," leading to the system's eventual collapse."

His Website Armstrong Economics offers a unique perspective intended to educate the public and organizations on the global economic and political environment's underlying trends. Their mission is to research historical cyclical trends.
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Tom welcomes Steve Todoruk, a geoscientist and investment executive with Sprott Wealth Management, to discuss his extensive experience in the junior mining sector and his current focus on identifying promising investment opportunities in gold, silver, and copper. Steve’s background in running mining companies has given him a unique perspective on the industry, enabling him to appreciate the challenges and opportunities faced by mining companies and investors alike. He highlights the strong fundamentals supporting gold prices, including central banks’ increased gold holdings and the metal’s scarcity.

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Steve believes that gold prices will remain robust as long as central banks continue to accumulate gold, and he sees no immediate signs of a market top. Todoruk also emphasizes the importance of cost management in mining, noting that as long as mining costs remain under $2,000 an ounce, mining companies should continue to make strong profits. The discussion touches on the impact of geopolitical tensions on gold and silver prices, with Todoruk expressing satisfaction with the metals’ performance despite recent market volatility. He also notes that higher metal prices have enabled mining companies to strengthen their balance sheets and invest in exploration, creating a positive feedback loop for the industry.

Todoruk’s investment strategy focuses on identifying companies with strong catalysts for growth, such as significant new discoveries or the acquisition of non-core assets from major mining companies. He prefers to invest in tranches, gradually building positions in promising companies as they release positive drill results and grow their deposits. Todoruk is also open to investing in mid-tier producers that have acquired non-core assets from majors, as these companies can generate strong cash flow and have multiple catalysts for growth. Throughout the discussion, Todoruk emphasizes the importance of having a knowledgeable guide in the junior mining sector, as the complexities of the industry can be challenging for individual investors to navigate.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:15 – Mining Company Lessons
00:01:34 – Gold Bull Cycle Position
00:03:24 – Identifying Market Tops
00:05:44 – Higher Prices Industry Impact
00:08:08 – Exploration Funding Dynamics
00:10:15 – Discovery and Catalyst Stories
00:12:33 – Investment Strategy Overview
00:14:58 – Lassonde Curve – Timeframes
00:17:48 – Majors’ Acquisition Behavior
00:21:40 – De-globalization in Mining
00:25:10 – Other Commodities Focus
00:27:10 – Gold Price Projections
00:31:02 – Lessons from Rick Rule
00:35:29 – Wrap Up

Guest:

Steve Todoruk — Geologist and Investment Executive with Sprott Wealth Management
Steve Todoruk is an Investment Executive at Sprott Wealth Management. He has been with the firm since 2003. A Professional Geoscientist in good standing in British Columbia, Mr. Todoruk brings more than four decades of experience across the mining and exploration industry. He earned a BS in Geology from the University of British Columbia in 1985. He began his career as a field geologist, working with both major and junior exploration companies across Canada and the southwestern United States. He also gained hands-on operational experience underground in a Canadian mine, operating heavy equipment to deepen his understanding of the industry. From 1993 to early 2003, Mr. Todoruk served as president of two Canadian-based junior exploration companies and was a principal in a mineral exploration consulting and engineering firm. Throughout his career, he has played a key role in financing the resource sector, participating in or arranging transactions that have raised hundreds of millions of dollars to advance exploration projects.

In recognition of his perseverance and long-standing commitment to early-stage exploration, Mr. Todoruk was awarded the 2019 Murray Pezim Award. His efforts have contributed to the development and advancement of numerous significant metal discoveries.

Investment Risks and Important Disclosure

Future stock price action is purely speculative, and any discussion of differing scenarios is purely illustrative. Given the nature of the mining business, exposure to those equities may be more volatile than an investment in more diversified issuers, potentially declining rapidly in a very short period of time.

Relative to other sectors, precious metals and natural resources investments have higher headline risk and are more sensitive to changes in economic data, political or regulatory events, and underlying commodity price fluctuations. Risks related to extraction, storage and liquidity should also be considered.

Gold and precious metals are referred to with terms of art like "store of value," "safe haven" and "safe asset." These terms should not be construed to guarantee any form of investment safety. While “safe” assets like gold, Treasuries, money market funds and cash generally do not carry a high risk of loss relative to other asset classes, any asset may lose value, which may involve the complete loss of invested principal.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. You cannot invest directly in an index. Investments, commentary and opinions are unique and may not be reflective of any other Sprott entity or affiliate. Forward-looking language should not be construed as predictive. While third-party sources are believed to be reliable, Sprott makes no guarantee as to their accuracy or timeliness. This information does not constitute an offer or solicitation and may not be relied upon or considered to be the rendering of tax, legal, accounting or professional
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Your host Tom Bodrovics and Alasdair Macleod, Head of Research for GoldMoney and author of the Macleod Finance Substack, discuss the significant financial stresses exacerbated by the ongoing war and pre-existing economic issues. Macleod highlights that government finances, particularly in G7 economies, are heavily reliant on deficit spending, creating an unsustainable situation. He also notes that the value of commodities priced in gold has fallen to unusually low levels, indicating an underlying bull market in commodities, which includes oil and other energy sources.

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The war in the Persian Gulf has accelerated the rise in commodity prices, leading to significant inflationary pressures and potential bond market stress. The US, with a massive debt overhang and short-term debt maturities, faces a challenging situation. Macleod emphasizes that the Fed, driven by political pressures, will likely intervene to prevent an economic slump, potentially leading to a rapid devaluation of the dollar. He compares the current situation to the 1970s UK, where high bond yields and inflation led to economic turmoil.

Macleod also discusses the potential for Japan and China to sell US Treasuries due to their energy dependence and geopolitical tensions, further complicating the US Treasury market. The conversation touches on the petro-dollar system, with Macleod suggesting a transition to a petro-yuan system as China and other countries move away from the dollar.

Regarding gold and silver, Macleod noted that China’s recent changes in silver exports and imports have significantly impacted global markets, with China now focusing on stockpiling silver for its own industrial needs. He predicted that rising bond yields and inflation will ultimately drive the collapse of fiat currencies, making gold and silver attractive as stores of value.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:45 – Pre-War Financial Stresses
00:04:33 – US Debt Rollover Challenges
00:08:03 – Fed’s Political Dilemma
00:11:01 – Lessons from German Hyperinflation
00:13:30 – GDP as Misleading Metric
00:17:46 – Japan China Treasury Sales
00:24:15 – Petro Dollar Yuan Transition
00:33:35 – Gold Silver Market Dynamics
00:40:45 – Catalysts for Metals Surge
00:44:02 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest:

Alasdair Macleod — Head of Research for GoldMoney & Author of the Macleod Finance Substack
Alasdair Macleod is Head of Research for GoldMoney. He is an educator and advocates for sound money thru demystifying finance and economics. His background includes being a stockbroker, banker, and economist.

Alasdair started his career as a stockbroker in 1970 on the London Stock Exchange. Within nine years, he had risen to become senior partner of his firm.

Subsequently, he held positions at the director level in investment management and worked as a mutual fund manager. Mr. Macleod also worked at a bank in Guernsey as an executive director.

For most of his 40 years in the finance industry, he has been demystifying macro-economic events for his investing clients. The accumulation of this experience has convinced him that unsound monetary policies are the most destructive weapon governments use against the common man. Accordingly, his mission is to educate and inform the public in layman's terms what governments do with money and how to protect themselves from the consequences.
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Tom Bodrovics welcomes Rory Johnston, a commodity market researcher specializing in oil and gas, to discuss the current state of the global energy market. Johnston highlights the unprecedented situation where OPEC+ output reached an all-time low last month, and the significant impact of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on global oil supplies. Johnston notes that over 90 Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) are headed to the US Gulf Coast to pick up crude, a situation that has gained attention, including from former President Trump. This influx of tankers is due to the Middle East being functionally offline and China banning the export of refined products, making the US and Canada the most energy-secure areas.

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Johnston explains that the current market dynamics are driven by a significant backwardation in the futures market, where the price of oil for immediate delivery is much higher than for future delivery. This is due to the acute shortages in areas that previously relied on Middle Eastern fuel, leading to a scramble for available supplies. He emphasizes that the market is not creating new oil but rather shuffling existing supplies to areas willing to pay more.

The discussion also touches on the potential for the US to supply the global shortfall and the implications of tapping into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Johnston believes that some of the SPR releases will likely be exported, given the high demand and the need to balance global supplies. He also notes the potential for resource nationalism and the political considerations that could influence oil trade policies.

Johnston warns that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the global oil market could face severe shortages, leading to significant price increases and potential demand destruction. He highlights the importance of understanding the physical market dynamics versus the futures market, which often moves much faster. The interview concludes with Johnston emphasizing the need to follow the crisis closely, as the physical impact on the oil market will continue to worsen as long as Hormuz remains closed.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:01:16 – Viral Tanker Tweet/Trump
00:03:31 – US Supply Shortfall
00:06:47 – Sustaining Output Levels
00:08:15 – Market Reaction Weirdness
00:09:07 – Backwardation Explained
00:11:45 – Pre-War Oversupply Context
00:18:24 – Physical Market Lags
00:21:00 – Hormuz Blockade Impact
00:24:30 – Iran’s Negotiation Strategy
00:28:34 – China, Chokepoints, & Russia
00:38:06 – LPG and Product Shortages
00:44:53 – Demand Destruction Risks
00:50:05 – Price Shocks & Inelastic Markets

Guest:

Rory Johnston — Commodity Market Research - Specializing in Oil & Gas
Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, host of the Oil Ground Up podcast, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines.

He is a leading voice on oil market analysis, advising institutional investors, global policy makers, and corporate decision makers. His views are regularly quoted in major international media including the Financial Times, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, Reuters, BNN Bloomberg, CBC, and Financial Post, and he frequently appears on numerous market and industry podcasts (e.g., Bloomberg’s Odd Lots, Hidden Forces, etc.).

Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank where he set the bank’s energy and metals price forecasts, advised the bank’s executives and clients, and sat on the bank’s senior credit committee for commodity-exposed sectors.
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Tom Bodrovics welcomes back London Paul, publisher of ‘The Sirius Report,’ together they delve into the complexities and implications of the ongoing war, focusing on the missteps and strategic failures of the U.S. and its allies. Paul critiques the initial decision to assassinate Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Kamehni, arguing that it was a strategic blunder that galvanized Iranian resistance rather than ending the conflict. He highlights the U.S.’s underestimation of Iran’s capabilities, both defensively and offensively, and the failure to achieve stated objectives such as regime change, destruction of nuclear facilities, and control over strategic waterways like the Strait of Hormuz.

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The discussion touches on the U.S.’s desperate search for an “off-ramp” to exit the war without appearing defeated, particularly in light of upcoming midterm elections. Paul noted that the U.S. has failed to achieve any of its stated objectives and is now scrambling to find a way to declare victory.

Paul also discusses the broader geopolitical implications, including the strengthening of the IRGC, Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz, and the potential for a prolonged conflict that could have catastrophic global consequences. Economically, Paul warns of the potential for severe energy shortages and food disruptions, which could lead to hyperinflation and social unrest. He emphasizes the need for coordinated global action to mitigate these risks and prevent a prolonged conflict that could destabilize the entire Middle East and beyond.

The conversation also touches on the potential for a silver shortage and the impact on precious metals markets, given silver’s critical role in industrial applications and its potential as a monetary metal. Paul advises listeners to be cautious of misinformation and to prepare for potential disruptions in energy and food supplies. He also highlights the broader geopolitical shifts, including the potential decline of U.S. influence in the Middle East and the strengthening of Iran’s regional power.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:20 – Current War Summary
00:03:17 – US Objectives Failures
00:05:58 – Iranian Military Capabilities
00:07:32 – US Off-Ramp Challenges
00:10:30 – Failed Uranium Seizure
00:13:25 – Peace Talks Breakdown
00:16:00 – Regime Change Goals
00:22:42 – Energy Impacts China
00:29:13 – Global Oil Supplies
00:35:45 – Supply Chain Disruptions
00:42:36 – Silver Market Dynamics
00:53:01 – Financial System Risks
01:03:20 – US-Iran Historical Context
01:09:10 – Wrap Up

Guest:

London Paul — Publisher of 'The Sirius Report'
The Sirius Report is an independent website providing analysis and an alternative perspective on current affairs and global events that we believe are shaping a new political, economic and social paradigm. We are fully self-funded and are not backed by any third-party corporation, organization, or individual.

The site is run by ‘London Paul’ and his partner Lisa, who is the site administrator. ‘London Paul’ is a pseudonym that was first coined by long-time friend and fellow commentator Jim Willie. For privacy reasons, Paul prefers not to be known by his real name. He also feels that the primary focus should be on his work rather than on his identity.

Paul has a long track record of accurate predictions and analyses on geopolitical and economic affairs. Originally a physicist, he was awarded a Ph.D. in biomolecular physics, after which he spent some time working in academia. He then went on to work in the financial services sector and worked in some major banks until the financial crisis of 2008, when he left the banking sector to work in the precious metals sector. In addition to his vast understanding of economics and precious metals (a friend of his once jokingly said that ‘Paul is the only person I know who really understands derivatives’), he has also always had a keen interest in geopolitics. Through years of diligent research and conversations with certain key insiders, he has been able to gain a unique understanding of a geopolitical shift towards a multipolar paradigm that is now shaping the world in the 21st century.

Paul is not motivated by party politics and does not adhere to any particular political, religious or other movement. He likes a common-sense approach to everything and sees it as his responsibility to deliver completely objective, unbiased, and no-nonsense analysis, even if that means going against popular opinion.
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Tom welcomes back Simon Hunt to the the show. Simon is a consultant on the global economy, China, and the copper industry. He discusses the geopolitical implications of a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, and its potential impact on the global economy. The ceasefire, Hunt argues, is unlikely to be durable due to the unacceptable terms proposed by Iran, which include control over the Strait of Hormuz and the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the region. Hunt suggests that the U.S.’s motivation for the conflict is to support its donors and to control energy prices, thereby controlling the world.

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However, Iran’s resilience and backing from China and Russia make it a formidable opponent. The potential economic consequences of a durable ceasefire include rising inflation, increased ten-year yields, and market volatility.

Hunt predicts that Europe is poised to enter a recession, while China and Russia may emerge stronger due to their strategic planning and resource reserves. The conflict also highlights the intensifying rivalry between the U.S. and China, with copper being a key battleground.

Hunt suggests that the global economy is entering a period of uncertainty, with resource nationalism and geopolitical tensions likely to intensify. Hunt also discusses the potential for an inflation-led recovery or recession, the role of gold as a secure asset, and the importance of monitoring capital flows and political changes in the Gulf region.

He notes that the conflict has exposed the U.S.’s lack of diplomatic skills and reliance on threats of brute force.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:01:21 – Assessing Ceasefire Durability
00:03:13 – Iran’s Ceasefire Demands
00:07:23 – Trump’s Attack Motivations
00:11:49 – Global Recession Prospects
00:15:14 – BRICS Alliance Support
00:17:17 – Rising Resource Nationalism
00:22:30 – Multipolar World Conflicts
00:26:00 – US Diplomacy Failures
00:32:34 – Copper Market Forecast
00:34:25 – Supply Demand Dynamics
00:40:20 – Gold Safe Haven Role
00:43:00 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest:

Simon Hunt — Consultant on the Global Economy, China, and the Copper Industry
Simon Hunt began his career in 1956 in Central Africa as a PA to the Chairman of Rhodesian Selection Trust, one of the two large copper companies in what was then Northern Rhodesia, now Zambia.

In 1961, he came back to London and joined Anglo American Corporation of South Africa as a PA to one of the Board Directors, followed by being part of a small sales and marketing team for copper. From there, he helped start up a new copper development organization, CIDEC, financed by copper producers, which he then joined, focusing on conducting end-use studies of copper in Europe.

He then went into the City to gain financial experience and founded Brook Hunt in 1975. He was instrumental in setting up the company's cost studies and end-use analyses. Simon appeared as material witness and consultant in two ITC anti-dumping cases in 1978 and 1984, winning both at the commission level.

He has spent 2-4 months every year in China since 1993, and until a few years ago would be visiting some 80 wire and cable and brass mill factories across the country every year. He now restricts these factory visits to a smaller number, all of which he has known for many years. Simon also spends many weeks each year traveling around Asia.

The focus of the company's services is on the global economy, including the changing geopolitical and financial structures, China's economy and its copper sector, and then the global copper industry as each part is interconnected.

Simon is the author of the "Frontline China Report Service," which is marketed by the TIS Group. The Service provides regular reports on China's economy, politics, and financial outlook.

Simon established this company in January 1996.
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Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Jaime Carrasco, Senior Portfolio Manager and Senior Investment Advisor at Harbourfront Wealth Management, to discuss the geopolitical and economic landscape in light of the escalating tensions with Iran. Carrasco emphasizes the importance of being defensively positioned in the markets amidst such uncertainty. He highlights the long-term shift away from the US dollar as the global reserve currency, drawing parallels to historical events like the Russian Revolution. Carrasco argues that regardless of the outcome of the conflict, gold will be a winner due to the need for infrastructure rebuilding and the potential for inflationary pressures.

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Jaime stresses the significance of holding physical gold and investing in gold producers as a hedge against economic instability. He notes that the current geopolitical situation is redrawing the monetary map and signals a loss of trust in the US dollar. He advises clients to have a significant portion (up to 30%) of their net worth in physical gold and gold producers, citing the potential for a monetary reset and the destruction of fiat currencies. He also discusses the impact of rising interest rates and the potential for a credit derivative swap crisis, drawing parallels to the 2008 financial crisis.

Carrasco expresses concern about the economic and human costs of the conflict but sees opportunities in sectors like energy, pipelines, and utilities. He believes that the current situation is accelerating a transition to a sound money system and that gold will be a key component of any future monetary reset. Carrasco also touches on the social and political implications of the conflict, emphasizing the importance of empathy and understanding in rebuilding societies.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:01:04 – Geopolitical Market Impact
00:03:26 – Monetary System Acceleration
00:07:47 – Producer Earnings Opportunities
00:08:49 – 30% Producers Allocation
00:10:28 – Gold Repatriation Trends
00:15:13 – Energy Geopolitics Shifts
00:18:31 – Gold as Debt Hedge
00:26:09 – Private Credit Bubble
00:29:20 – Fed Paths Forward?
00:31:42 – Debt Reset Timeline?
00:34:40 – Canada & Gold Holdings
00:38:43 – Gold Price Volatility
00:41:56 – Geopolitical Iran Outcomes
00:49:20 – Optimism & Path Forward

Guest:

Jaime Carrasco — Senior Portfolio Manager & Senior Investment Advisor at Harbourfront Wealth Management
Jaime Carrasco is Senior Portfolio Manager & Senior Investment Advisor at Harbourfront Wealth Management. From 2014-2018 he worked as Director of Wealth Management and Associate Portfolio Manager for ScotiaMcLeod. Before this, he worked for Macquarie Group, CIBC Wood Gundy, BMO Nesbitt Burns, Gordon Capital, and Merrill Lynch.

Jaime is a leading Canadian investment professional with 25 years of experience providing wealth management and investment counsel to affluent families, businesses, and institutions. He has garnered a reputation for questioning and challenging the status quo and exploring the most innovative investment strategies.

Jaime, whose mother tongue is Spanish, also speaks Italian and French. He completed a BA in political science and economics at the University of Toronto in 1988. While a student, he worked for CS Yacht, a company that built luxury sailboats, thus spending his summers as a skipper for the Canadian establishment members. Jaime credits this experience and having survived sailing through Hurricane Bob in 1991. This experience taught him lessons that have become a metaphor for his financial investment strategies.

"Like one's financial wealth, sailing is not about controlling the wind, but rather about adjusting the sails."
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Tom Bodrovics welcomes Rick Rule to the show. Rick Rule is a legendary Investor, Speculator, Founder and CEO of Rule Investment Media. Rule discusses several critical economic and investment insights, focusing on potential risks and opportunities in the current global landscape. Rick emphasizes the potential for a liquidity squeeze and credit crisis, advising investors to maintain liquidity and be prepared for potential market downturns. He highlights the ongoing trend of resource nationalism and geopolitical tensions, which are reshaping global energy and commodity markets. Specifically, he sees significant opportunities in uranium and nuclear energy, noting that countries like Japan are rapidly reconsidering nuclear power as a reliable, low-carbon energy source.

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Regarding investment strategies, Rule critiques retail investors’ common mistakes, including insufficient research, following outdated recommendations, and lacking patience with long-term investment theses. He advocates for thorough due diligence, understanding company valuations, and being psychologically prepared for market volatility. Rule is particularly critical of proposed wealth taxes, arguing that such policies punish productivity and would not meaningfully address government debt. He points out that the top 1% of taxpayers already pay 42% of applicable taxes and that confiscating billionaires’ wealth would only fund government spending for a few years.

In the resources sector, Rule sees potential for significant mergers and acquisitions in the next five years, particularly in gold equities. He recommends companies like Cameco in the nuclear sector and suggests investors focus on strategic, well-managed companies with clear investment theses. Rule also warns about risks in high-yield ETFs, describing potential credit contagion scenarios that could create significant market disruptions.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:39 – War Risks and Recession
00:03:37 – Resource Nationalism Trends
00:05:57 – Energy Pricing Acceleration
00:06:59 – Uranium Business Opportunities
00:08:09 – Liquidity and Banking Risks
00:13:24 – High Yield ETF Dangers
00:18:02 – Wealth Tax Critique
00:22:04 – North American Energy Position
00:24:50 – Silver to Miners Shift
00:31:06 – Common Investor Mistakes
00:38:38 – Current Buys and M&A
00:42:55 – Nuclear Power Thesis
00:50:54 – Resource Nationalism Envy
00:54:17 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest:

Rick Rule — Investor, Speculator, Founder & CEO of Rule Investment Media
Rick Rule has dedicated his entire adult life to many aspects of natural resources securities investing. Besides the knowledge and experience gained in a long and focused career, he has a global network of contacts in the natural resources and finance sectors.

Mr. Rule is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and is regularly interviewed for radio, television, print, and online media outlets concerning natural resources investment and industry topics. Prominent natural resources-oriented newsletters and advisories frequently quote him. Mr. Rule and his team have expertise in many resource sectors, including agriculture, alternative energy, forestry, oil and gas, mining, and water.
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Chase Taylor, a Global Macro Strategist and Editor at Pinecone Macro, joined Tom Bodrovics to discuss the geopolitical implications of the ongoing war and its impact on global markets. Taylor, has a background in geospatial intelligence and a deep interest in history and geopolitics, emphasizes the importance of asking the right questions rather than seeking immediate answers in the midst of conflict. Taylor highlights the significant delta between public narratives and the reality on the ground, noting that many decision-makers underestimated Iran’s capabilities. He discusses the strategic miscalculations by the US and Israel, which have led to a situation where Iran holds considerable leverage, both operationally and economically.

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Taylor predicts that the US may have to accept unfavorable terms to exit the conflict, given Iran’s escalation dominance and economic leverage. They touch on the potential domestic risks in the US from Iran, with Taylor suggesting that while direct military attacks are unlikely, but there could be retaliatory actions against US assets in the region. He also delves into the downstream effects of the conflict, including disruptions in oil and gas supplies, particularly from Qatar, which supplies 20% of the world’s LNG. Taylor estimates that it could take up to six months for some LNG facilities to resume operations and up to three years for a full recovery.

The discussion also covers the potential return to coal usage and the acceleration of green energy transitions in response to supply disruptions. Taylor notes that countries heavily invested in renewables, like solar, would be better positioned to weather the storm. He also highlights the potential for increased resource nationalism and the complexities of global interdependencies, using the example of pencil manufacturing complexities to illustrate how interconnected global supply chains are.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:01:13 – Background & War Framework
00:03:07 – Market Pricing War Impacts
00:05:30 – Trump, News Flow & Cycles
00:07:30 – Ceasefire Leverage Dynamics
00:11:20 – US Israel Miscalculation
00:16:50 – US Goals & Saving Face
00:19:30 – Strategic Loss Implications
00:27:12 – Resolution Options Discussion
00:31:25 – Strait Hormuz Scenarios
00:35:04 – Oil & Gas Disruptions
00:40:05 – Secondary Global Risks
00:46:00 – East Vs. West & Energy
00:48:56 – Feds Reaction
00:55:36 – Inflationary Effects
00:57:40 – Sectors to Watch

Guest:

Chase Taylor — Global Macro Strategist and Editor at Pinecone Macro
Chase Taylor is a macro trader and the global macro strategist and editor at Pinecone Macro Research. He recently became Head of Research at Bullwark Capital Management. Chase launched PMR in 2018, where he provides unique macro insights and analysis in a weekly and monthly research product.

Chase does not come from Wall Street or business school, but the military. He prides himself on being a self-taught macro thinker and practitioner. Chase started in the Air Force working on B-1 Bombers, but spent most of his career as a geospatial intelligence analyst, working on strategic and tactical intelligence problem sets. He has also worked in acquisitions at a research laboratory focused on rocket propulsion.

Chase combines the analytical techniques he learned in the intelligence community with a unique focus on history and nature to create a distinctive macro framework. He combines technical analysis, fundamental changes, and the power of narratives and reflexivity to uncover asymmetric investments.
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Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Don Durrett, author, investor, and founder of Goldstockdata.com, to discuss the current state of the metals and mining markets, with a particular focus on gold and silver. Don emphasizes his strategy of buying during market dips, which he has applied successfully in recent months. He notes that gold experienced a significant correction, dropping from $5,600 to around $4,100, and has since rebounded to nearly $4,600. Durrett attributed this volatility to the geopolitical tensions and the U.S. economy’s struggles, including high debt levels and inflation.

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Durrett expresses his belief that the U.S. economy is on a declining trajectory, heavily reliant on foreign investment, and heading towards a recession. He predicts that gold and silver prices will rise significantly due to the U.S. government’s potential inability to service its debt and the fragility of the bond market. He set a target of $7,000 for gold and $200 for silver within the next 24 to 36 months, citing the unsustainable debt levels and economic management practices as key drivers.

Don also touches on the potential impacts of an energy crisis, noting that while higher oil prices pose risks to gold mining operations, the industry has margins that can withstand increases up to a certain point. He also discusses the potential for a digital currency reset, which could devalue the U.S. dollar and lead to a quasi-default on U.S. debt.

Durrett highlights the importance of monitoring the geopolitical situation, particularly the tensions in the Middle East, which could impact oil prices and global economies. He expressed pessimism about the likelihood of a swift resolution to the conflicts and the potential for Iran to gain leverage over oil prices. Despite these challenges, Durrett remains bullish on gold and silver, expecting new all-time highs by the end of June and viewing any corrections as buying opportunities.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:32 – Buying the Dip Strategy
00:02:32 – Analyzing Recent Gold Dip
00:05:52 – Gold and Silver Targets
00:09:11 – US Economy Oil Resilience
00:15:50 – Energy Crisis Ripples
00:18:59 – Debt Bubble and Default
00:23:15 – Fed’s Policy Dilemma
00:27:56 – Miners and Energy Risks
00:32:47 – Iran’s Belligerence Scenarios
00:40:20 – Gold’s Bullish Outlook
00:43:25 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest:

Don Durrett — Author, Investor, and Founder of Goldstockdata.com
Don Durrett received an MBA from California State University Bakersfield in 1990. He has worked in IT-related positions for 20+ years. He has been a gold investor since 1991, with a focus on Junior Mining stocks since 2004. Realizing the value of investing in gold and silver and noticing the lack of available material for first-time investors, Don set out to provide information. First, he wrote a book, How to Invest in Gold & Silver: A Complete Guide with a Focus on Mining Stocks. He followed up the book with a website (www.goldstockdata.com) to provide data, tools, and analysis for gold and silver stock investors. His gold and silver mining stock newsletter is widely regarded as one of the best. He is a frequent guest on financial podcasts and a contributor to SeekingAlpha.com.
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Tom Bodrovics welcomes back ‘The Market Sniper’ otherwise known as Francis Hunt. Francis a renowned trader and analyst, delves into the current economic landscape, focusing on the intersection of energy, inflation, and debt. Hunt emphasizes that the ongoing conflicts and disruptions in energy infrastructure, particularly in the Middle East and Russia, are driving a broader inflation story. He argues that the world is experiencing an extreme version of stagflation, characterized by economic stagnation and high inflation, which erodes household purchasing power. This scenario is exacerbated by excessive debt and the need for central banks to manage the debasement of fiat currencies. Hunt discusses the historical context of stagflation, comparing the current situation to the 1970s when OPEC’s actions pushed up oil prices, leading to a similar economic environment. He highlights the recent explosions and disruptions in energy infrastructure are not isolated incidents but part of a larger strategy to engineer inflation and manage debt. This strategy involves manipulating commodity prices, particularly oil, to control the cost of goods and services, ultimately affecting global economies.

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The conversation also touches on the role of digital price tags in supermarkets, which allow for real-time price adjustments, reflecting the immediate impact of inflation on consumer goods. Hunt warns that this technology could lead to sudden and significant price increases, further straining household budgets. He also mentions the potential for shortages in food and other essential commodities due to disruptions in global supply chains, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and energy price volatility. Hunt criticizes the mainstream media and financial institutions for misrepresenting economic data, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and unemployment rates, to paint a rosier picture of the economy. He argues that these misleading narratives are part of a broader effort to control the narrative and maintain public trust in financial systems.

He also highlights the potential for social unrest and economic instability as a result of the current economic policies, warning that the world is on the brink of a global depression. The conversation also covers the implications of the current economic environment for different countries, with a focus on Japan and the United States. Hunt argues that Japan, despite its high debt levels, is in a better position than the United States due to its lower energy dependence and more stable economic policies.

Francis also discusses the potential for a reset of the global financial system, which could involve a shift away from fiat currencies towards more stable assets like gold. In conclusion, Hunt emphasized the importance of preserving wealth and maintaining a high standard of living in the face of economic uncertainty. He advises listeners to focus on self-reliance, community building, and personal freedom, while also being prepared for potential social unrest and economic instability. He ends the conversation on a positive note, encouraging listeners to live fulfilling lives and pursue their passions, regardless of the economic challenges they may face.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:02:55 – Hyperstagflation Overview
00:07:36 – Oil as Financial Weapon
00:10:30 – Digital Pricing Inflation
00:13:40 – Debt, Scarcity, & Yields
00:18:08 – Debt Debasement Mechanisms
00:23:00 – Yield Curve Analysis
00:28:48 – U.S. Debt & Japan
00:35:33 – Gold as Capital Preservation
00:44:04 – Financial Magazine Covers
00:45:45 – Silver Outlook
00:48:40 – XTI Crude Oil Chart
00:51:18 – Gold & Social Unrest
01:00:00 – Positive Outlook

Guest:

Francis Hunt — Renegade Trader, Analyst, & Founder of The Market Sniper
Francis is a trader, first and foremost. Unlike most educators in the trading space, Francis walks the walk and talks the talk, with 30 years of experience trading his personal capital on various markets and instruments. Through this passion for trading and his relentless study of markets and economic theory, he uses the Hunt Volatility Funnel trading methodology, a systemized approach, to answer the critical question: What is the next most profitable trade?

He believes the actual price of an asset is the most accurate reflection of all the factors that influence it. Practical technical analysis, the study of price action over time, is needed to formulate profitable trade ideas. Indeed, with all the market manipulation and high-frequency trading operations currently in play, technical analysis is all that can be relied upon when it comes to formulating future price trends. A trained eye can often spot such manipulative practices, as is the case with HVF traders. Therefore, the HVF methodology is based purely on technical analysis.

Francis is passionate about sharing his knowledge and understanding of markets by utilizing his HVF trading methodology. With entertaining anecdotes and the careful guidance of his students, he has already trained a large community of hundreds of traders and helped them transform from complete newbies to seasoned trading professionals.

He genuinely loves sharing his knowledge and strategies with others who are committed to finding freedom through trading. Plus, teaching strengthens his trading abilities while helping to build a vibrant community of successful traders.
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📈 The Competent Investor
Markets, macro, and the minds that move money.

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