The Competent Investor – Détails, épisodes et analyse

Doomberg analyzes the accelerating convergence of global crises, framing the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East as battles within a broader World War III that began in 2014. He argues these conflicts are catalysts revealing the fragility of a late-stage US dollar-centric financial system, where Western sovereign debts have reached mathematically unsustainable levels. The recent strategic pact between Russia and China to advance a multi-polar framework is seen as a historic step toward de-dollarization, punishing the US for abusing its financial chokehold. Doomberg notes that paradoxically, heavily sanctioned nations like Iran and Russia have built resiliency that will serve them well when the current system collapses, as major Western currencies and bonds are all correlated proxies destined to fail together.

Regarding the energy shock from the Strait of Hormuz closure, Doomberg admits his earlier prediction of $150 oil was wrong, attributing the muted price response to a massive inventory overhang and deceptive market practices in 2025 that are now being burned off at higher prices. The near-term threat remains a full-blown regional war that could cause an uninsulated global depression, though the long-run outlook for commodity prices is lower due to supply responses. The current ceasefire is viewed as a necessity for the US and Israel, given missile shortages and Iran's credible ability to devastate Gulf energy infrastructure that remains defenseless.

Shifting to Canada, Doomberg expresses optimism that political roadblocks to energy exports are clearing, predicting Mark Carney will succeed in building a pipeline to unlock Alberta's vast resources, analogous to Nixon going to China. He dismisses Canadian insolvency fears given its immense per-capita resource base. Finally, he underscores his analytical method of deliberately seeking and grading a wide spectrum of global propaganda to construct a more predictive, holistic view of world events.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:52 - Sovereign Debt Crisis Catalyst
00:04:53 - Global Yields and Japan
00:07:30 - Sanctioned Countries Resiliency
00:08:57 - Energy Shock Impacts
00:10:30 - Medium-Term Optimism Outlook
00:16:44 - Religious War Undertones
00:19:20 - Congressional War Constraints
00:21:33 - Oil Price Predictions Reviewed
00:26:11 - Canada Energy & Resources
00:34:45 - News Flow & Information
00:40:32 - China & Trump's Claims
00:49:52 - Foreign Policy Whiplash
00:53:17 - Energy & Datacenters
00:57:19 - Wrap Up

Guest:

Doomberg — Head Writer For The Doomberg Team and Creator of the Doomberg Substack
Doomberg is the anonymous publishing arm of a bespoke consulting firm providing advisory services to family offices and c-suite executives. Its principals apply their decades of experience across heavy industry, private equity, and finance to deliver innovative thinking and clarity to complex problems.
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Tony Greer, trader, editor of 'The Morning Navigator', and co-founder of 'The Macrodirt Podcast', joined Tom Bodrovics to share a trader’s perspective on navigating today’s chaotic markets. Greer emphasized a core philosophy: “Don’t worry about being right, worry about getting it right,” prioritizing P&L over ego and reacting flexibly to new information. He views the brewing energy crisis from the Strait of Hormuz closure as a significant, underappreciated risk, markets may only wake up when tangible shortages hit personal convenience, not through forward-looking pricing. While oil charts remain constructive and he expects high prices for longer, political distractions and Trump’s headlines create confusion, though many are noise to be canceled.

Greer sees a potential replay of 2022 with headline inflation is re-emerging, as seen in recent CPI and PPI prints, which could pressure tech and growth stocks while benefiting hard assets and value. He is positioned long energy, oil services, gold, and miners, noting that gold miners’ sell-off defies their record margins and cheap valuations, making them compelling buys even if they shake out weak hands first. Technology’s AI bubble appears extended, and while he’d short a parabolic blow-off top, he remains nimble, as illustrated by his prepared exit from homebuilders when rates rose. The dollar and yields serve as guides, not trades unto themselves.

Beyond markets, Greer reflected on his inaugural TG Macro conference, finding the deep human need for personal connection its greatest lesson. The event’s sentiment marker—broad consensus to own gold and miners—later proved a contrarian signal, a reminder of crowd psychology. He plans a second conference in Nashville for February 18–19, 2027, with a rotating mix of speakers. Greer stressed the restorative power of analog activities—cooking, guitar, family—and urged listeners to unplug, shake hands, and foster real connection, a balance essential in the digital age.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:01:12 - Trading Mindset and Flexibility
00:03:28 - Global Energy Crisis Concerns
00:06:40 - Trump Policies and Markets
00:10:10 - Oil Charts and Planning
00:14:20 - Gold Miners Outlook
00:18:24 - Energy Sector Positioning
00:27:30 - Trading & Positioning Shorts
00:30:15 - CPI, Fed, Dollar and Rates
00:35:00 - Morning Market Analysis Routine
00:38:20 - Conference Reflections
00:42:30 - AI & Wrap Up

Guest:

Tony Greer — Trader, Editor of 'The Morning Navigator', and Co-Founder of 'The Macrodirt Podcast'
After graduating from Cornell University in 1990 Tony followed in his father’s footsteps to a Wall Street trading operation. He quickly learned his career path would be vastly different. He says, "I would not be sitting in the same seat on the same trading desk managing the same risk for the same firm for over 30 years."

We have clearly entered a new era in financial markets.

He began in the treasury department of Sumitomo Bank on the 107th floor of the World Trade Center downtown Manhattan. Tony was an FX trading assistant while the Quantum Fund was breaking the Bank of England in 1992.

In 1993 he joined Union Bank of Switzerland as an FX and commodities trader, spending half a year as a Vice President in their Zurich treasury department. Then returned to New York City early in 1995 to join J. Aron & Company, the privately held commodity trading arm of Goldman Sachs.

He managed risk for the Goldman Sachs Commodities Index, in precious and base metals trading, and futures and options trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

He started his first venture in 2000 – Machine Trading which happened right before the tech bubble burst. That decision was his first excruciating life lesson in market timing. It turned out to be an extremely valuable learning experience.

He believes there is a massive opportunity with both the unprecedented situation in global markets and in the way financial news is consumed. In 2016, he started TG Macro, LLC.
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Tom Bodrovics welcomes Rory Johnston, a commodity market researcher specializing in oil and gas, to discuss the current state of the global energy market. Johnston highlights the unprecedented situation where OPEC+ output reached an all-time low last month, and the significant impact of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on global oil supplies. Johnston notes that over 90 Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) are headed to the US Gulf Coast to pick up crude, a situation that has gained attention, including from former President Trump. This influx of tankers is due to the Middle East being functionally offline and China banning the export of refined products, making the US and Canada the most energy-secure areas.

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Johnston explains that the current market dynamics are driven by a significant backwardation in the futures market, where the price of oil for immediate delivery is much higher than for future delivery. This is due to the acute shortages in areas that previously relied on Middle Eastern fuel, leading to a scramble for available supplies. He emphasizes that the market is not creating new oil but rather shuffling existing supplies to areas willing to pay more.

The discussion also touches on the potential for the US to supply the global shortfall and the implications of tapping into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Johnston believes that some of the SPR releases will likely be exported, given the high demand and the need to balance global supplies. He also notes the potential for resource nationalism and the political considerations that could influence oil trade policies.

Johnston warns that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the global oil market could face severe shortages, leading to significant price increases and potential demand destruction. He highlights the importance of understanding the physical market dynamics versus the futures market, which often moves much faster. The interview concludes with Johnston emphasizing the need to follow the crisis closely, as the physical impact on the oil market will continue to worsen as long as Hormuz remains closed.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:01:16 – Viral Tanker Tweet/Trump
00:03:31 – US Supply Shortfall
00:06:47 – Sustaining Output Levels
00:08:15 – Market Reaction Weirdness
00:09:07 – Backwardation Explained
00:11:45 – Pre-War Oversupply Context
00:18:24 – Physical Market Lags
00:21:00 – Hormuz Blockade Impact
00:24:30 – Iran’s Negotiation Strategy
00:28:34 – China, Chokepoints, & Russia
00:38:06 – LPG and Product Shortages
00:44:53 – Demand Destruction Risks
00:50:05 – Price Shocks & Inelastic Markets

Guest:

Rory Johnston — Commodity Market Research - Specializing in Oil & Gas
Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, host of the Oil Ground Up podcast, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines.

He is a leading voice on oil market analysis, advising institutional investors, global policy makers, and corporate decision makers. His views are regularly quoted in major international media including the Financial Times, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, Reuters, BNN Bloomberg, CBC, and Financial Post, and he frequently appears on numerous market and industry podcasts (e.g., Bloomberg’s Odd Lots, Hidden Forces, etc.).

Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank where he set the bank’s energy and metals price forecasts, advised the bank’s executives and clients, and sat on the bank’s senior credit committee for commodity-exposed sectors.
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Tom Bodrovics welcomes back London Paul, publisher of ‘The Sirius Report,’ together they delve into the complexities and implications of the ongoing war, focusing on the missteps and strategic failures of the U.S. and its allies. Paul critiques the initial decision to assassinate Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Kamehni, arguing that it was a strategic blunder that galvanized Iranian resistance rather than ending the conflict. He highlights the U.S.’s underestimation of Iran’s capabilities, both defensively and offensively, and the failure to achieve stated objectives such as regime change, destruction of nuclear facilities, and control over strategic waterways like the Strait of Hormuz.

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The discussion touches on the U.S.’s desperate search for an “off-ramp” to exit the war without appearing defeated, particularly in light of upcoming midterm elections. Paul noted that the U.S. has failed to achieve any of its stated objectives and is now scrambling to find a way to declare victory.

Paul also discusses the broader geopolitical implications, including the strengthening of the IRGC, Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz, and the potential for a prolonged conflict that could have catastrophic global consequences. Economically, Paul warns of the potential for severe energy shortages and food disruptions, which could lead to hyperinflation and social unrest. He emphasizes the need for coordinated global action to mitigate these risks and prevent a prolonged conflict that could destabilize the entire Middle East and beyond.

The conversation also touches on the potential for a silver shortage and the impact on precious metals markets, given silver’s critical role in industrial applications and its potential as a monetary metal. Paul advises listeners to be cautious of misinformation and to prepare for potential disruptions in energy and food supplies. He also highlights the broader geopolitical shifts, including the potential decline of U.S. influence in the Middle East and the strengthening of Iran’s regional power.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:20 – Current War Summary
00:03:17 – US Objectives Failures
00:05:58 – Iranian Military Capabilities
00:07:32 – US Off-Ramp Challenges
00:10:30 – Failed Uranium Seizure
00:13:25 – Peace Talks Breakdown
00:16:00 – Regime Change Goals
00:22:42 – Energy Impacts China
00:29:13 – Global Oil Supplies
00:35:45 – Supply Chain Disruptions
00:42:36 – Silver Market Dynamics
00:53:01 – Financial System Risks
01:03:20 – US-Iran Historical Context
01:09:10 – Wrap Up

Guest:

London Paul — Publisher of 'The Sirius Report'
The Sirius Report is an independent website providing analysis and an alternative perspective on current affairs and global events that we believe are shaping a new political, economic and social paradigm. We are fully self-funded and are not backed by any third-party corporation, organization, or individual.

The site is run by ‘London Paul’ and his partner Lisa, who is the site administrator. ‘London Paul’ is a pseudonym that was first coined by long-time friend and fellow commentator Jim Willie. For privacy reasons, Paul prefers not to be known by his real name. He also feels that the primary focus should be on his work rather than on his identity.

Paul has a long track record of accurate predictions and analyses on geopolitical and economic affairs. Originally a physicist, he was awarded a Ph.D. in biomolecular physics, after which he spent some time working in academia. He then went on to work in the financial services sector and worked in some major banks until the financial crisis of 2008, when he left the banking sector to work in the precious metals sector. In addition to his vast understanding of economics and precious metals (a friend of his once jokingly said that ‘Paul is the only person I know who really understands derivatives’), he has also always had a keen interest in geopolitics. Through years of diligent research and conversations with certain key insiders, he has been able to gain a unique understanding of a geopolitical shift towards a multipolar paradigm that is now shaping the world in the 21st century.

Paul is not motivated by party politics and does not adhere to any particular political, religious or other movement. He likes a common-sense approach to everything and sees it as his responsibility to deliver completely objective, unbiased, and no-nonsense analysis, even if that means going against popular opinion.
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Tom welcomes back Simon Hunt to the the show. Simon is a consultant on the global economy, China, and the copper industry. He discusses the geopolitical implications of a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, and its potential impact on the global economy. The ceasefire, Hunt argues, is unlikely to be durable due to the unacceptable terms proposed by Iran, which include control over the Strait of Hormuz and the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the region. Hunt suggests that the U.S.’s motivation for the conflict is to support its donors and to control energy prices, thereby controlling the world.

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However, Iran’s resilience and backing from China and Russia make it a formidable opponent. The potential economic consequences of a durable ceasefire include rising inflation, increased ten-year yields, and market volatility.

Hunt predicts that Europe is poised to enter a recession, while China and Russia may emerge stronger due to their strategic planning and resource reserves. The conflict also highlights the intensifying rivalry between the U.S. and China, with copper being a key battleground.

Hunt suggests that the global economy is entering a period of uncertainty, with resource nationalism and geopolitical tensions likely to intensify. Hunt also discusses the potential for an inflation-led recovery or recession, the role of gold as a secure asset, and the importance of monitoring capital flows and political changes in the Gulf region.

He notes that the conflict has exposed the U.S.’s lack of diplomatic skills and reliance on threats of brute force.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:01:21 – Assessing Ceasefire Durability
00:03:13 – Iran’s Ceasefire Demands
00:07:23 – Trump’s Attack Motivations
00:11:49 – Global Recession Prospects
00:15:14 – BRICS Alliance Support
00:17:17 – Rising Resource Nationalism
00:22:30 – Multipolar World Conflicts
00:26:00 – US Diplomacy Failures
00:32:34 – Copper Market Forecast
00:34:25 – Supply Demand Dynamics
00:40:20 – Gold Safe Haven Role
00:43:00 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest:

Simon Hunt — Consultant on the Global Economy, China, and the Copper Industry
Simon Hunt began his career in 1956 in Central Africa as a PA to the Chairman of Rhodesian Selection Trust, one of the two large copper companies in what was then Northern Rhodesia, now Zambia.

In 1961, he came back to London and joined Anglo American Corporation of South Africa as a PA to one of the Board Directors, followed by being part of a small sales and marketing team for copper. From there, he helped start up a new copper development organization, CIDEC, financed by copper producers, which he then joined, focusing on conducting end-use studies of copper in Europe.

He then went into the City to gain financial experience and founded Brook Hunt in 1975. He was instrumental in setting up the company's cost studies and end-use analyses. Simon appeared as material witness and consultant in two ITC anti-dumping cases in 1978 and 1984, winning both at the commission level.

He has spent 2-4 months every year in China since 1993, and until a few years ago would be visiting some 80 wire and cable and brass mill factories across the country every year. He now restricts these factory visits to a smaller number, all of which he has known for many years. Simon also spends many weeks each year traveling around Asia.

The focus of the company's services is on the global economy, including the changing geopolitical and financial structures, China's economy and its copper sector, and then the global copper industry as each part is interconnected.

Simon is the author of the "Frontline China Report Service," which is marketed by the TIS Group. The Service provides regular reports on China's economy, politics, and financial outlook.

Simon established this company in January 1996.
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Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Jaime Carrasco, Senior Portfolio Manager and Senior Investment Advisor at Harbourfront Wealth Management, to discuss the geopolitical and economic landscape in light of the escalating tensions with Iran. Carrasco emphasizes the importance of being defensively positioned in the markets amidst such uncertainty. He highlights the long-term shift away from the US dollar as the global reserve currency, drawing parallels to historical events like the Russian Revolution. Carrasco argues that regardless of the outcome of the conflict, gold will be a winner due to the need for infrastructure rebuilding and the potential for inflationary pressures.

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Jaime stresses the significance of holding physical gold and investing in gold producers as a hedge against economic instability. He notes that the current geopolitical situation is redrawing the monetary map and signals a loss of trust in the US dollar. He advises clients to have a significant portion (up to 30%) of their net worth in physical gold and gold producers, citing the potential for a monetary reset and the destruction of fiat currencies. He also discusses the impact of rising interest rates and the potential for a credit derivative swap crisis, drawing parallels to the 2008 financial crisis.

Carrasco expresses concern about the economic and human costs of the conflict but sees opportunities in sectors like energy, pipelines, and utilities. He believes that the current situation is accelerating a transition to a sound money system and that gold will be a key component of any future monetary reset. Carrasco also touches on the social and political implications of the conflict, emphasizing the importance of empathy and understanding in rebuilding societies.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:01:04 – Geopolitical Market Impact
00:03:26 – Monetary System Acceleration
00:07:47 – Producer Earnings Opportunities
00:08:49 – 30% Producers Allocation
00:10:28 – Gold Repatriation Trends
00:15:13 – Energy Geopolitics Shifts
00:18:31 – Gold as Debt Hedge
00:26:09 – Private Credit Bubble
00:29:20 – Fed Paths Forward?
00:31:42 – Debt Reset Timeline?
00:34:40 – Canada & Gold Holdings
00:38:43 – Gold Price Volatility
00:41:56 – Geopolitical Iran Outcomes
00:49:20 – Optimism & Path Forward

Guest:

Jaime Carrasco — Senior Portfolio Manager & Senior Investment Advisor at Harbourfront Wealth Management
Jaime Carrasco is Senior Portfolio Manager & Senior Investment Advisor at Harbourfront Wealth Management. From 2014-2018 he worked as Director of Wealth Management and Associate Portfolio Manager for ScotiaMcLeod. Before this, he worked for Macquarie Group, CIBC Wood Gundy, BMO Nesbitt Burns, Gordon Capital, and Merrill Lynch.

Jaime is a leading Canadian investment professional with 25 years of experience providing wealth management and investment counsel to affluent families, businesses, and institutions. He has garnered a reputation for questioning and challenging the status quo and exploring the most innovative investment strategies.

Jaime, whose mother tongue is Spanish, also speaks Italian and French. He completed a BA in political science and economics at the University of Toronto in 1988. While a student, he worked for CS Yacht, a company that built luxury sailboats, thus spending his summers as a skipper for the Canadian establishment members. Jaime credits this experience and having survived sailing through Hurricane Bob in 1991. This experience taught him lessons that have become a metaphor for his financial investment strategies.

"Like one's financial wealth, sailing is not about controlling the wind, but rather about adjusting the sails."
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Tom Bodrovics welcomes Rick Rule to the show. Rick Rule is a legendary Investor, Speculator, Founder and CEO of Rule Investment Media. Rule discusses several critical economic and investment insights, focusing on potential risks and opportunities in the current global landscape. Rick emphasizes the potential for a liquidity squeeze and credit crisis, advising investors to maintain liquidity and be prepared for potential market downturns. He highlights the ongoing trend of resource nationalism and geopolitical tensions, which are reshaping global energy and commodity markets. Specifically, he sees significant opportunities in uranium and nuclear energy, noting that countries like Japan are rapidly reconsidering nuclear power as a reliable, low-carbon energy source.

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Regarding investment strategies, Rule critiques retail investors’ common mistakes, including insufficient research, following outdated recommendations, and lacking patience with long-term investment theses. He advocates for thorough due diligence, understanding company valuations, and being psychologically prepared for market volatility. Rule is particularly critical of proposed wealth taxes, arguing that such policies punish productivity and would not meaningfully address government debt. He points out that the top 1% of taxpayers already pay 42% of applicable taxes and that confiscating billionaires’ wealth would only fund government spending for a few years.

In the resources sector, Rule sees potential for significant mergers and acquisitions in the next five years, particularly in gold equities. He recommends companies like Cameco in the nuclear sector and suggests investors focus on strategic, well-managed companies with clear investment theses. Rule also warns about risks in high-yield ETFs, describing potential credit contagion scenarios that could create significant market disruptions.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:39 – War Risks and Recession
00:03:37 – Resource Nationalism Trends
00:05:57 – Energy Pricing Acceleration
00:06:59 – Uranium Business Opportunities
00:08:09 – Liquidity and Banking Risks
00:13:24 – High Yield ETF Dangers
00:18:02 – Wealth Tax Critique
00:22:04 – North American Energy Position
00:24:50 – Silver to Miners Shift
00:31:06 – Common Investor Mistakes
00:38:38 – Current Buys and M&A
00:42:55 – Nuclear Power Thesis
00:50:54 – Resource Nationalism Envy
00:54:17 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest:

Rick Rule — Investor, Speculator, Founder & CEO of Rule Investment Media
Rick Rule has dedicated his entire adult life to many aspects of natural resources securities investing. Besides the knowledge and experience gained in a long and focused career, he has a global network of contacts in the natural resources and finance sectors.

Mr. Rule is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and is regularly interviewed for radio, television, print, and online media outlets concerning natural resources investment and industry topics. Prominent natural resources-oriented newsletters and advisories frequently quote him. Mr. Rule and his team have expertise in many resource sectors, including agriculture, alternative energy, forestry, oil and gas, mining, and water.
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Chase Taylor, a Global Macro Strategist and Editor at Pinecone Macro, joined Tom Bodrovics to discuss the geopolitical implications of the ongoing war and its impact on global markets. Taylor, has a background in geospatial intelligence and a deep interest in history and geopolitics, emphasizes the importance of asking the right questions rather than seeking immediate answers in the midst of conflict. Taylor highlights the significant delta between public narratives and the reality on the ground, noting that many decision-makers underestimated Iran’s capabilities. He discusses the strategic miscalculations by the US and Israel, which have led to a situation where Iran holds considerable leverage, both operationally and economically.

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Taylor predicts that the US may have to accept unfavorable terms to exit the conflict, given Iran’s escalation dominance and economic leverage. They touch on the potential domestic risks in the US from Iran, with Taylor suggesting that while direct military attacks are unlikely, but there could be retaliatory actions against US assets in the region. He also delves into the downstream effects of the conflict, including disruptions in oil and gas supplies, particularly from Qatar, which supplies 20% of the world’s LNG. Taylor estimates that it could take up to six months for some LNG facilities to resume operations and up to three years for a full recovery.

The discussion also covers the potential return to coal usage and the acceleration of green energy transitions in response to supply disruptions. Taylor notes that countries heavily invested in renewables, like solar, would be better positioned to weather the storm. He also highlights the potential for increased resource nationalism and the complexities of global interdependencies, using the example of pencil manufacturing complexities to illustrate how interconnected global supply chains are.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:01:13 – Background & War Framework
00:03:07 – Market Pricing War Impacts
00:05:30 – Trump, News Flow & Cycles
00:07:30 – Ceasefire Leverage Dynamics
00:11:20 – US Israel Miscalculation
00:16:50 – US Goals & Saving Face
00:19:30 – Strategic Loss Implications
00:27:12 – Resolution Options Discussion
00:31:25 – Strait Hormuz Scenarios
00:35:04 – Oil & Gas Disruptions
00:40:05 – Secondary Global Risks
00:46:00 – East Vs. West & Energy
00:48:56 – Feds Reaction
00:55:36 – Inflationary Effects
00:57:40 – Sectors to Watch

Guest:

Chase Taylor — Global Macro Strategist and Editor at Pinecone Macro
Chase Taylor is a macro trader and the global macro strategist and editor at Pinecone Macro Research. He recently became Head of Research at Bullwark Capital Management. Chase launched PMR in 2018, where he provides unique macro insights and analysis in a weekly and monthly research product.

Chase does not come from Wall Street or business school, but the military. He prides himself on being a self-taught macro thinker and practitioner. Chase started in the Air Force working on B-1 Bombers, but spent most of his career as a geospatial intelligence analyst, working on strategic and tactical intelligence problem sets. He has also worked in acquisitions at a research laboratory focused on rocket propulsion.

Chase combines the analytical techniques he learned in the intelligence community with a unique focus on history and nature to create a distinctive macro framework. He combines technical analysis, fundamental changes, and the power of narratives and reflexivity to uncover asymmetric investments.
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Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Don Durrett, author, investor, and founder of Goldstockdata.com, to discuss the current state of the metals and mining markets, with a particular focus on gold and silver. Don emphasizes his strategy of buying during market dips, which he has applied successfully in recent months. He notes that gold experienced a significant correction, dropping from $5,600 to around $4,100, and has since rebounded to nearly $4,600. Durrett attributed this volatility to the geopolitical tensions and the U.S. economy’s struggles, including high debt levels and inflation.

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Durrett expresses his belief that the U.S. economy is on a declining trajectory, heavily reliant on foreign investment, and heading towards a recession. He predicts that gold and silver prices will rise significantly due to the U.S. government’s potential inability to service its debt and the fragility of the bond market. He set a target of $7,000 for gold and $200 for silver within the next 24 to 36 months, citing the unsustainable debt levels and economic management practices as key drivers.

Don also touches on the potential impacts of an energy crisis, noting that while higher oil prices pose risks to gold mining operations, the industry has margins that can withstand increases up to a certain point. He also discusses the potential for a digital currency reset, which could devalue the U.S. dollar and lead to a quasi-default on U.S. debt.

Durrett highlights the importance of monitoring the geopolitical situation, particularly the tensions in the Middle East, which could impact oil prices and global economies. He expressed pessimism about the likelihood of a swift resolution to the conflicts and the potential for Iran to gain leverage over oil prices. Despite these challenges, Durrett remains bullish on gold and silver, expecting new all-time highs by the end of June and viewing any corrections as buying opportunities.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:32 – Buying the Dip Strategy
00:02:32 – Analyzing Recent Gold Dip
00:05:52 – Gold and Silver Targets
00:09:11 – US Economy Oil Resilience
00:15:50 – Energy Crisis Ripples
00:18:59 – Debt Bubble and Default
00:23:15 – Fed’s Policy Dilemma
00:27:56 – Miners and Energy Risks
00:32:47 – Iran’s Belligerence Scenarios
00:40:20 – Gold’s Bullish Outlook
00:43:25 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest:

Don Durrett — Author, Investor, and Founder of Goldstockdata.com
Don Durrett received an MBA from California State University Bakersfield in 1990. He has worked in IT-related positions for 20+ years. He has been a gold investor since 1991, with a focus on Junior Mining stocks since 2004. Realizing the value of investing in gold and silver and noticing the lack of available material for first-time investors, Don set out to provide information. First, he wrote a book, How to Invest in Gold & Silver: A Complete Guide with a Focus on Mining Stocks. He followed up the book with a website (www.goldstockdata.com) to provide data, tools, and analysis for gold and silver stock investors. His gold and silver mining stock newsletter is widely regarded as one of the best. He is a frequent guest on financial podcasts and a contributor to SeekingAlpha.com.
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📈 The Competent Investor
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Tom Bodrovics welcomes back ‘The Market Sniper’ otherwise known as Francis Hunt. Francis a renowned trader and analyst, delves into the current economic landscape, focusing on the intersection of energy, inflation, and debt. Hunt emphasizes that the ongoing conflicts and disruptions in energy infrastructure, particularly in the Middle East and Russia, are driving a broader inflation story. He argues that the world is experiencing an extreme version of stagflation, characterized by economic stagnation and high inflation, which erodes household purchasing power. This scenario is exacerbated by excessive debt and the need for central banks to manage the debasement of fiat currencies. Hunt discusses the historical context of stagflation, comparing the current situation to the 1970s when OPEC’s actions pushed up oil prices, leading to a similar economic environment. He highlights the recent explosions and disruptions in energy infrastructure are not isolated incidents but part of a larger strategy to engineer inflation and manage debt. This strategy involves manipulating commodity prices, particularly oil, to control the cost of goods and services, ultimately affecting global economies.

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The conversation also touches on the role of digital price tags in supermarkets, which allow for real-time price adjustments, reflecting the immediate impact of inflation on consumer goods. Hunt warns that this technology could lead to sudden and significant price increases, further straining household budgets. He also mentions the potential for shortages in food and other essential commodities due to disruptions in global supply chains, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and energy price volatility. Hunt criticizes the mainstream media and financial institutions for misrepresenting economic data, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and unemployment rates, to paint a rosier picture of the economy. He argues that these misleading narratives are part of a broader effort to control the narrative and maintain public trust in financial systems.

He also highlights the potential for social unrest and economic instability as a result of the current economic policies, warning that the world is on the brink of a global depression. The conversation also covers the implications of the current economic environment for different countries, with a focus on Japan and the United States. Hunt argues that Japan, despite its high debt levels, is in a better position than the United States due to its lower energy dependence and more stable economic policies.

Francis also discusses the potential for a reset of the global financial system, which could involve a shift away from fiat currencies towards more stable assets like gold. In conclusion, Hunt emphasized the importance of preserving wealth and maintaining a high standard of living in the face of economic uncertainty. He advises listeners to focus on self-reliance, community building, and personal freedom, while also being prepared for potential social unrest and economic instability. He ends the conversation on a positive note, encouraging listeners to live fulfilling lives and pursue their passions, regardless of the economic challenges they may face.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:02:55 – Hyperstagflation Overview
00:07:36 – Oil as Financial Weapon
00:10:30 – Digital Pricing Inflation
00:13:40 – Debt, Scarcity, & Yields
00:18:08 – Debt Debasement Mechanisms
00:23:00 – Yield Curve Analysis
00:28:48 – U.S. Debt & Japan
00:35:33 – Gold as Capital Preservation
00:44:04 – Financial Magazine Covers
00:45:45 – Silver Outlook
00:48:40 – XTI Crude Oil Chart
00:51:18 – Gold & Social Unrest
01:00:00 – Positive Outlook

Guest:

Francis Hunt — Renegade Trader, Analyst, & Founder of The Market Sniper
Francis is a trader, first and foremost. Unlike most educators in the trading space, Francis walks the walk and talks the talk, with 30 years of experience trading his personal capital on various markets and instruments. Through this passion for trading and his relentless study of markets and economic theory, he uses the Hunt Volatility Funnel trading methodology, a systemized approach, to answer the critical question: What is the next most profitable trade?

He believes the actual price of an asset is the most accurate reflection of all the factors that influence it. Practical technical analysis, the study of price action over time, is needed to formulate profitable trade ideas. Indeed, with all the market manipulation and high-frequency trading operations currently in play, technical analysis is all that can be relied upon when it comes to formulating future price trends. A trained eye can often spot such manipulative practices, as is the case with HVF traders. Therefore, the HVF methodology is based purely on technical analysis.

Francis is passionate about sharing his knowledge and understanding of markets by utilizing his HVF trading methodology. With entertaining anecdotes and the careful guidance of his students, he has already trained a large community of hundreds of traders and helped them transform from complete newbies to seasoned trading professionals.

He genuinely loves sharing his knowledge and strategies with others who are committed to finding freedom through trading. Plus, teaching strengthens his trading abilities while helping to build a vibrant community of successful traders.
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📈 The Competent Investor
Markets, macro, and the minds that move money.

Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles.
RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app.
Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter.
X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary.
YouTube — Full video episodes.