The Chuck ToddCast is back! If you're looking for smart, no-nonsense political conversation, you've come to the right place. The Chuck ToddCast goes beyond the headlines, featuring conversations with top reporters, insiders, and newsmakers from D.C. to the heartland. No scripts, no spin—just real discussions about what’s shaping our politics and why it matters.
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Interview Only w/ Molly Roberts - The Blueprint For How To Steal An Election
jeudi 10 septembre 2026 • Durée 57:19
Lawfare senior editor Molly Roberts joins the Chuck Toddcast to walk through the "rogue clerk" scenario — the theory circulating online that House Republicans could hold power on January 3rd regardless of what voters do in November. Her piece on it has been called the most comprehensive analysis written to date, and her conclusion is genuinely nuanced: this is worth taking seriously without taking it too seriously. The mechanics matter. At noon on January 3rd the old House dissolves and, briefly, there is no House at all — only the clerk, who under 2 U.S.C. § 26 has a ministerial duty to place on the roll only those members whose credentials show they were regularly elected. Ministerial duties are enforceable by mandamus, which means courts can compel compliance before a speaker is ever seated. But the vulnerabilities are real: a speaker can unilaterally fire the clerk and install an acting one, a state certification delayed past January 3rd creates genuine chaos (Missouri is the obvious candidate), and once a speaker is elected the courts will likely bow out. She and Chuck walk through the historical precedents — the 1838 Broad Seal War, the 1984 fight over Indiana's "Bloody 8th" — and land on the reassuring and unsettling truth at once: pulling this off would require an enormous number of people at the state level and in the House conference acting in lockstep, and treating it as a foolproof hack implies it's lawful when it plainly isn't. The realistic ceiling for a rogue clerk isn't a stolen election; it's mayhem. The worry, as Roberts puts it, is that for some people mayhem is more than enough.
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Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too!
For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck/ *Paid Partnership
Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Molly Roberts joins the Chuck ToddCast
01:15 How Lawfare shifted from national security to rule of law
02:15 Could the administration steal the midterm elections?
04:45 The local certification weirdness that didn't work out
06:45 Many states tightened election procedures after 2020
08:15 A certification delay past January 3rd is the big "what if"
11:15 Why January 3rd is the key date — the 20th Amendment
12:00 At noon, the old House dissolves and there is no House
13:45 During that window, the clerk is effectively running things
15:30 What if Missouri's delegation can't get certified?
18:15 A late seating could flip the chamber
20:15 The 1984 fight over Indiana's "Bloody 8th"
22:15 If the clerk goes rogue, can courts step in?
23:15 Once there's a speaker, the courts likely bow out
26:15 The speaker can fire the clerk and install an acting one
30:00 The clerk's ministerial duty — and why it's enforceable
32:45 Can the House override a state certification?
35:15 How many people would have to cooperate to pull this off
37:00 The history of the Broad Seal War
42:00 Why the Senate is more immune to January 3rd chaos
48:00 The decisions that sustained democracy were mostly 52-48
48:45 What she tells people who ask "will the midterms be stolen?"
Full Episode - We Gave Up Freedoms After 9/11… It’s Time To Get Them Back + The Blueprint For How To Steal An Election
jeudi 10 septembre 2026 • Durée 02:41:13
Chuck Todd argues AI alarmism just hit its break-glass moment. Jacob Coxon, a researcher who spent three years on pretraining at OpenAI and Anthropic, resigned Tuesday and posted that neither company is acting responsibly — that they're "racing straight to self-improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives". Chuck had assumed some of this fearmongering was a marketing tactic. He no longer does. His argument is that the public is begging for guardrails while a government that's been bought off or is simply afraid of tech money does nothing, that the tech companies want regulatory capture, and that we have the worst possible president for this moment. We organized globally to prevent nuclear war; we need televised emergency congressional hearings and the same seriousness here.
From there Chuck turns to trust — the connective tissue of the whole episode. Only 45% of Americans think the midterms will be fair, in part because Trump has convinced his supporters that every election he's lost was suspicious. Republicans have to win voters with oil prices at record highs, and unlike Obama, Trump can't credibly blame his predecessor: he inherited a recovery and made it worse. Chuck previews a convention that's a base-turnout exercise rather than a persuasion play, notes Trump's instinct for gimmicks (paying stay-at-home mothers is functionally welfare), and observes that the limited-government wing of the GOP has been fully eviscerated by a party that now wants to coerce social behavior. On the 25th anniversary of 9/11, he's blunt about the Islamophobia aimed at Zohran Mamdani and argues Muslim participation in American life post-9/11 is largely a good story. The security apparatus worked, intelligence sharing genuinely improved, but emergency powers should have expiration dates, the surveillance watchdog board is effectively defunct, and Congress has abdicated oversight. We traded privacy for security and then got used to it.
Then, Lawfare senior editor Molly Roberts joins the Chuck Toddcast to walk through the "rogue clerk" scenario — the theory circulating online that House Republicans could hold power on January 3rd regardless of what voters do in November. Her piece on it has been called the most comprehensive analysis written to date, and her conclusion is genuinely nuanced: this is worth taking seriously without taking it too seriously. The mechanics matter. At noon on January 3rd the old House dissolves and, briefly, there is no House at all — only the clerk, who under 2 U.S.C. § 26 has a duty to place on the roll only those members whose credentials show they were regularly elected. Ministerial duties are enforceable by mandamus, which means courts can compel compliance before a speaker is ever seated. But the vulnerabilities are real: a speaker can unilaterally fire the clerk and install an acting one, a state certification delayed past January 3rd creates genuine chaos (Missouri is the obvious candidate), and once a speaker is elected the courts will likely bow out. She and Chuck walk through the historical precedents — the 1838 Broad Seal War, the 1984 fight over Indiana's "Bloody 8th" — and land on the reassuring and unsettling truth at once: pulling this off would require an enormous number of people at the state level and in the House conference acting in lockstep, and treating it as a foolproof hack implies it's lawful when it plainly isn't. The realistic ceiling for a rogue clerk isn't a stolen election; it's mayhem. The worry, as Roberts puts it, is that for some people mayhem is more than enough.
Chuck’s Commentary - AI’s “Break Glass” Moment + We Gave Up Freedoms After 9/11… It’s Time To Get Them Back
jeudi 10 septembre 2026 • Durée 01:46:48
Chuck Todd argues AI alarmism just hit its break-glass moment. Jacob Coxon, a researcher who spent three years on pretraining at OpenAI and Anthropic, resigned Tuesday and posted that neither company is acting responsibly — that they're "racing straight to self-improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives". Chuck had assumed some of this fearmongering was a marketing tactic. He no longer does. His argument is that the public is begging for guardrails while a government that's been bought off or is simply afraid of tech money does nothing, that the tech companies want regulatory capture, and that we have the worst possible president for this moment. We organized globally to prevent nuclear war; we need televised emergency congressional hearings and the same seriousness here.
From there Chuck turns to trust — the connective tissue of the whole episode. Only 45% of Americans think the midterms will be fair, in part because Trump has convinced his supporters that every election he's lost was suspicious. Republicans have to win voters with oil prices at record highs, and unlike Obama, Trump can't credibly blame his predecessor: he inherited a recovery and made it worse. Chuck previews a convention that's a base-turnout exercise rather than a persuasion play, notes Trump's instinct for gimmicks (paying stay-at-home mothers is functionally welfare), and observes that the limited-government wing of the GOP has been fully eviscerated by a party that now wants to coerce social behavior. On the 25th anniversary of 9/11, he's blunt about the Islamophobia aimed at Zohran Mamdani and argues Muslim participation in American life post-9/11 is largely a good story. The security apparatus worked, intelligence sharing genuinely improved, but emergency powers should have expiration dates, the surveillance watchdog board is effectively defunct, and Congress has abdicated oversight. We traded privacy for security and then got used to it.
Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football.
link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.
Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too!
Interview Only w/ Anthony Tommasini - Remembering The “Voice Of A Century”
mercredi 9 septembre 2026 • Durée 01:02:58
Anthony Tommasini — chief classical music critic for the New York Times from 2000 to 2021 — joins the Chuck Toddcast to discuss Voice of a Century: The Life and Artistry of Marian Anderson, out September 8th as part of the Significations series curated by Henry Louis Gates Jr. Tommasini didn't seek the project; he was asked to write it. His argument is that Anderson has been flattened into two civil rights milestones — the 1939 Lincoln Memorial concert before 75,000 people after the DAR barred her from Constitution Hall, and breaking the Met's color line — when the reason she mattered in the first place was the voice. He describes her extraordinary range, her European breakthrough (and the promoters who essentially whitewashed her race to sell her), her decision not to learn Italian because she knew American opera was closed to her, and the fact that had she been born thirty years later she'd have had an opera career.
The human material is remarkable: conscripted into a church choir at six, largely self-taught at piano, denied a hotel room and put up by Albert Einstein, who became a friend and pushed her to speak out more than she wanted to. Anderson's aim was to be a great artist, not an activist. They also get into the state of classical music in 2026 — why symphonies are so expensive to sustain, why live performance can't be replicated, and which American orchestra he'd send you to first.
Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM.
Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.
For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck/ *Paid Partnership
Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact
Full Episode - Decoding Missouri’s Election Map Mess + Remembering The “Voice Of A Century”
mercredi 9 septembre 2026 • Durée 02:42:28
Chuck Todd reads the New Hampshire results as a straightforward establishment win — the progressive dog didn't bark, outside groups largely stayed out, and Jeanne Shaheen's decades of organization-building still define the state party. He expects a four-to-six point Senate race and would be surprised, though not shocked, if it flipped, since Sununu's politics run a bit conservative for New Hampshire. Then he turns to the redistricting chaos in Missouri, where the state's electoral process has been thrown into genuine disarray: Secretary of State Denny Hoskins sat on 300,000 referendum signatures until primary election day before rejecting them, the state Supreme Court unanimously ruled the 2025 map never took effect and ordered November run on the old lines with the new map going to a statewide vote with the August primary already conducted on a map that isn't law. Chuck argues Hoskins created this mess through partisan hackery, points to Texas in 1996 as precedent, and says a special election would be the fairest resolution. He also flags Dan Osborn's tricky balancing act in Nebraska, and a New York Times report that Roger Marshall's practice sued roughly 700 patients over unpaid medical bills — some for just a few hundred dollars — before he later voted to limit hospitals' collection powers. Chuck’s read: damaging material doesn't land on a reporter's desk by accident, the timing could matter enormously in a race Democrats have put in play.
Then, Anthony Tommasini — chief classical music critic for the New York Times from 2000 to 2021 — joins the Chuck Toddcast to discuss Voice of a Century: The Life and Artistry of Marian Anderson, out September 8th as part of the Significations series curated by Henry Louis Gates Jr. Tommasini didn't seek the project; he was asked to write it. His argument is that Anderson has been flattened into two civil rights milestones — the 1939 Lincoln Memorial concert before 75,000 people after the DAR barred her from Constitution Hall, and breaking the Met's color line — when the reason she mattered in the first place was the voice. He describes her extraordinary range, her European breakthrough (and the promoters who essentially whitewashed her race to sell her), her decision not to learn Italian because she knew American opera was closed to her, and the fact that had she been born thirty years later she'd have had an opera career.
The human material is remarkable: conscripted into a church choir at six, largely self-taught at piano, denied a hotel room and put up by Albert Einstein, who became a friend and pushed her to speak out more than she wanted to. Anderson's aim was to be a great artist, not an activist. They also get into the state of classical music in 2026 — why symphonies are so expensive to sustain, why live performance can't be replicated, and which American orchestra he'd send you to first.
Chuck’s Commentary - Decoding Missouri’s Election Map Mess + A Damaging Story That Could Upend The Kansas Senate Race
mercredi 9 septembre 2026 • Durée 01:42:36
Chuck Todd reads the New Hampshire results as a straightforward establishment win — the progressive dog didn't bark, outside groups largely stayed out, and Jeanne Shaheen's decades of organization-building still define the state party. He expects a four-to-six point Senate race and would be surprised, though not shocked, if it flipped, since Sununu's politics run a bit conservative for New Hampshire. Then he turns to the redistricting chaos in Missouri, where the state's electoral process has been thrown into genuine disarray: Secretary of State Denny Hoskins sat on 300,000 referendum signatures until primary election day before rejecting them, the state Supreme Court unanimously ruled the 2025 map never took effect and ordered November run on the old lines with the new map going to a statewide vote with the August primary already conducted on a map that isn't law. Chuck argues Hoskins created this mess through partisan hackery, points to Texas in 1996 as precedent, and says a special election would be the fairest resolution. He also flags Dan Osborn's tricky balancing act in Nebraska, and a New York Times report that Roger Marshall's practice sued roughly 700 patients over unpaid medical bills — some for just a few hundred dollars — before he later voted to limit hospitals' collection powers. Chuck’s read: damaging material doesn't land on a reporter's desk by accident, the timing could matter enormously in a race Democrats have put in play.
Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 potential red state sweeps for the Democrats and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.
Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too!
Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM.
Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.
The Paul Finebaum Interview: Alabama’s Past, Present & Uncertain Future
mardi 8 septembre 2026 • Durée 58:04
Chuck Todd and J.A. Adande sit down with ESPN’s Paul Finebaum and dive into Alabama football.
Finebaum shares his perspective on Bear Bryant’s complicated legacy and the integration of Alabama football, explains why Nick Saban succeeded where so many post-Bryant coaches failed, and reveals how Saban established total control over the program from the moment he arrived in Tuscaloosa.
Plus, Finebaum offers a warning about Alabama’s future.
Super Tuesdays - Can Trump’s Midterm Convention Prevent A Democratic Blue Tsunami?
mardi 8 septembre 2026 • Durée 01:14:47
Eight Tuesdays out, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza open on the first midterm convention in modern American history — two nights at Dallas's American Airlines Center with 109 speakers, Trump appearing both nights, and House members getting billed $25,000 to attend. The guys are skeptical of nearly all of it: the event lands on NFL kickoff night, it butts up against the 25th anniversary of September 11th, and Politico found 45 of 70 Republican candidates and members skipping it. Their sharper point is that the whole thing is a microcosm of the party's bind — you cannot win without the MAGA base, and you cannot win with only the MAGA base — which is why swing-state nominees like Jon Husted and Mike Rogers will show up and try very hard to deliver a forgettable speech. Chuck argues nationalizing the election isn't crazy on its own terms, since the other side is going to run against Trump anyway, but doubts Trump can hit any register besides red meat, and doubts even more that he can find a second gear for the September 11th anniversary the following day.
From there they dig into Texas, where MAGA Inc's first $10 million buy is running a half-negative, half-positive ad about taxes — a signal, Chuck says, that they know the target is suburban Romney Republicans, not the base. He walks through Greg Abbott's steadily declining margins, the four-to-eight-point scandal penalty that history says attaches to a candidate like Paxton, and lands somewhere that surprises Chris: he now likes Talarico's odds better than Sherrod Brown's in Ohio. They check the prediction markets, unpack the Missouri Supreme Court ruling that blocked the Republican-drawn map and effectively hands Emanuel Cleaver his seat back, and take apart Trump's request that the Supreme Court impose a national check on mail voting — a policy every Republican strategist will tell you privately hurts their own side. Then a long, unsparing conversation about the Wall Street Journal's reporting on John Fetterman and what it means for control of the Senate on January 3rd, a real case for a third Senate conference built around Murkowski and a possible independent, and a closing riff on Nick Saban, Pat McAfee, and why the Protect College Sports Act is doomed without collective bargaining.
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Eight Tuesdays out — and why they actually prepare for these now
Full Episode - Blue Mirage, Blue Wave, Or Blue Tsunami? + Debt, AI, & An Economy That Isn't Working for Everyone
lundi 7 septembre 2026 • Durée 03:06:51
With the fall campaign officially underway after Labor Day, Chuck Todd lays out three scenarios for November and assigns odds to each. A blue mirage (15%) — Democrats still take the House but net only two Senate seats, saved by Republican money from tech and crypto, because you can't buy a new national mood but you can absolutely save individual candidates. A blue wave (50%), the 2006 comparison, where individual races start behaving like one national election and Democrats win everything reasonable. And a blue tsunami (30-35%), where Texas and Florida governorships come into play, independents break hard, and MAGA voters stay home. What separates a wave from a tsunami, Todd argues, is whether corruption breaks through as a voting issue — and data centers may be the most tangible way in. The problem for Democrats remains what it's been all year: they're as unpopular as Republicans, they don't have an obvious agenda, and releasing one risks dividing the party — though not releasing one carries its own risk.
He also flags the Missouri map being tossed by the state supreme court, notes the redistricting chaos Republicans started, previews a GOP midterm convention that's purely a base-turnout exercise many candidates may skip, and closes on John Fetterman. The Wall Street Journal report — sourced to more than a dozen former staffers and colleagues plus internal texts — details skipped committee hearings, blown-off constituent meetings, and reluctance to attend police funerals. Fetterman calls it a smear job from disgruntled staffers. His question isn't about the reporting: it's whether Fetterman is still a Democrat come January 2027, and which side of the aisle he and Lisa Murkowski end up sitting on. He also weighs in on week one in college football.
Then, Bruce Mehlman — founding partner of the bipartisan Mehlman Consulting and the man behind the quarterly slide decks that circulate through half of official Washington — joins the Chuck Toddcast to assess a bifurcated economy and the bills coming due. Millennials are wealthier than their parents were at this age but far more stressed, housing is inflated by a supply shortage, and the central question hanging over everything is whether AI pays off before the investment bill comes due. Mehlman notes the dot-com bubble produced real productivity gains and still burst, and the harder worry isn't the bust itself but whether it arrives at a moment when government can't respond.
Chuck’s Commentary - Blue Mirage, Blue Wave, Or Blue Tsunami? + Could John Fetterman Defect?
lundi 7 septembre 2026 • Durée 02:05:48
With the fall campaign officially underway after Labor Day, Chuck Todd lays out three scenarios for November and assigns odds to each. A blue mirage (15%) — Democrats still take the House but net only two Senate seats, saved by Republican money from tech and crypto, because you can't buy a new national mood but you can absolutely save individual candidates. A blue wave (50%), the 2006 comparison, where individual races start behaving like one national election and Democrats win everything reasonable. And a blue tsunami (30-35%), where Texas and Florida governorships come into play, independents break hard, and MAGA voters stay home. What separates a wave from a tsunami, Todd argues, is whether corruption breaks through as a voting issue — and data centers may be the most tangible way in. The problem for Democrats remains what it's been all year: they're as unpopular as Republicans, they don't have an obvious agenda, and releasing one risks dividing the party — though not releasing one carries its own risk.
He also flags the Missouri map being tossed by the state supreme court, notes the redistricting chaos Republicans started, previews a GOP midterm convention that's purely a base-turnout exercise many candidates may skip, and closes on John Fetterman. The Wall Street Journal report — sourced to more than a dozen former staffers and colleagues plus internal texts — details skipped committee hearings, blown-off constituent meetings, and reluctance to attend police funerals. Fetterman calls it a smear job from disgruntled staffers. His question isn't about the reporting: it's whether Fetterman is still a Democrat come January 2027, and which side of the aisle he and Lisa Murkowski end up sitting on. He also weighs in on week one in college football.
Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit Gerald Ford’s decision to pardon Richard Nixon and why the conventional wisdom of it being the right decision… is wrong. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.
Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM.
Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.
ministerial
Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football.
link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.
Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too!
For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck/ *Paid Partnership
Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd's introduction
02:00 AI alarmism may have hit its break-glass moment
03:15 The viral resignation post — and the colleagues who confirmed it
04:30 Chuck had assumed some of this was a marketing tactic
05:45 The public is begging government for AI guardrails
07:15 We have the worst possible president for this moment
08:15 We stopped nuclear war globally — we need the same for AI
09:15 Officials are bought off or afraid of tech money
10:00 The tech companies want regulatory capture
13:00 Shouldn't we pause everything to work on this?
16:30 The virality feels like a primal scream from the public
18:30 Only 45% of Americans think the midterms will be fair
21:00 Trump convinced supporters every election he lost was suspicious
23:30 Republicans have to win with oil prices at record highs
26:15 Obama could blame his predecessor — Trump can't
30:00 A convention Trump can only use to talk to his own voters
34:30 Trump's instinct for finding the right gimmick
36:00 Paying stay-at-home moms is basically welfare
38:00 The GOP now wants government to coerce social behavior
40:30 Democrats should have fought harder for the Child Tax Credit
42:30 Friday marks the 25th anniversary of 9/11
44:15 The blatant Islamophobia aimed at Zohran Mamdani
47:00 Muslim participation in America post-9/11 is mostly a good story
51:30 We gave up a lot of freedoms — it's time to get them back
54:45 More surveillance power was granted, but oversight never followed
56:30 Emergency powers should have an expiration date
59:30 The surveillance watchdog board is basically defunct
1:03:00 Trust has collapsed, and that's dangerous for a pluralistic society
1:07:15 The terrorists win if we fight each other
1:17:30 Molly Roberts joins the Chuck ToddCast
1:18:45 How Lawfare shifted from national security to rule of law
1:19:45 Could the administration steal the midterm elections?
1:22:15 The local certification weirdness that didn't work out
1:24:15 Many states tightened election procedures after 2020
1:25:45 A certification delay past January 3rd is the big "what if"
1:28:45 Why January 3rd is the key date — the 20th Amendment
1:29:30 At noon, the old House dissolves and there is no House
1:31:15 During that window, the clerk is effectively running things
1:33:00 What if Missouri's delegation can't get certified?
1:35:45 A late seating could flip the chamber
1:37:45 The 1984 fight over Indiana's "Bloody 8th"
1:39:45 If the clerk goes rogue, can courts step in?
1:40:45 Once there's a speaker, the courts likely bow out
1:43:45 The speaker can fire the clerk and install an acting one
1:47:30 The clerk's ministerial duty — and why it's enforceable
1:50:15 Can the House override a state certification?
1:52:45 How many people would have to cooperate to pull this off
1:54:30 The history of the Broad Seal War
1:59:30 Why the Senate is more immune to January 3rd chaos
2:05:30 The decisions that sustained democracy were mostly 52-48
2:06:15 What she tells people who ask "will the midterms be stolen?"
2:09:15 Ask Chuck
2:09:30 Where have you heard a musical performance that left an impression?
2:14:15 Examples of presidents making painful short-term decisions for long-term gain?
2:18:45 Reaction to Sen. Kennedy telling Kristen Welker he likes her better?
2:19:15 Who needs to sell their MLB team first?
2:22:30 Is there more Dems can do to sustain focus to counter Hegseth at the Pentagon?
2:26:15 Any question of which map will be used in Missouri election?
For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck/ *Paid Partnership
Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd's introduction
02:00 AI alarmism may have hit its break-glass moment
03:15 The viral resignation post — and the colleagues who confirmed it
04:30 Chuck had assumed some of this was a marketing tactic
05:45 The public is begging government for AI guardrails
07:15 We have the worst possible president for this moment
08:15 We stopped nuclear war globally — we need the same for AI
09:15 Officials are bought off or afraid of tech money
10:00 The tech companies want regulatory capture
13:00 Shouldn't we pause everything to work on this?
16:30 The virality feels like a primal scream from the public
18:30 Only 45% of Americans think the midterms will be fair
21:00 Trump convinced supporters every election he lost was suspicious
23:30 Republicans have to win with oil prices at record highs
26:15 Obama could blame his predecessor — Trump can't
30:00 A convention Trump can only use to talk to his own voters
34:30 Trump's instinct for finding the right gimmick
36:00 Paying stay-at-home moms is basically welfare
38:00 The GOP now wants government to coerce social behavior
40:30 Democrats should have fought harder for the Child Tax Credit
42:30 Friday marks the 25th anniversary of 9/11
44:15 The blatant Islamophobia aimed at Zohran Mamdani
47:00 Muslim participation in America post-9/11 is mostly a good story
51:30 We gave up a lot of freedoms — it's time to get them back
54:45 More surveillance power was granted, but oversight never followed
56:30 Emergency powers should have an expiration date
59:30 The surveillance watchdog board is basically defunct
1:03:00 Trust has collapsed, and that's dangerous for a pluralistic society
1:07:15 The terrorists win if we fight each other
1:14:45 Ask Chuck
1:15:00 Where have you heard a musical performance that left an impression?
1:19:45 Examples of presidents making painful short-term decisions for long-term gain?
1:24:15 Reaction to Sen. Kennedy telling Kristen Welker he likes her better?
1:24:45 Who needs to sell their MLB team first?
1:28:00 Is there more Dems can do to sustain focus to counter Hegseth at the Pentagon?
1:31:45 Any question of which map will be used in Missouri election?
Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 potential red state sweeps for the Democrats and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.
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Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.
For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck/ *Paid Partnership
Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact
Timeline:
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
02:30 The establishment got its way in NH primary elections
04:45 The progressive dog didn’t bark in New Hampshire
05:15 Outside groups mostly stayed out of NH races
06:45 Jeanne Shaheen built & basically is the NH Democratic Party
08:15 NH senate race will likely be in a 4-6 point range
09:45 Sununu’s politics are a bit conservative for NH
11:30 Would be surprised but not shocked if NH senate goes Republicans
For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck/ *Paid Partnership
Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
02:30 The establishment got its way in NH primary elections
04:45 The progressive dog didn’t bark in New Hampshire
05:15 Outside groups mostly stayed out of NH races
06:45 Jeanne Shaheen built & basically is the NH Democratic Party
08:15 NH senate race will likely be in a 4-6 point range
09:45 Sununu’s politics are a bit conservative for NH
11:30 Would be surprised but not shocked if NH senate goes Republicans
The back half turns to how business is bracing for a Democratic Congress. Mehlman says the business community knows the pendulum always swings, and an epic wave of oversight is coming — complicated by an OLC position that executive privilege extends to anyone who speaks with Trump, meaning everything gets litigated to the Supreme Court while companies weigh the risk of contempt. On Trump's pay-to-play demands, he argues there are usually paths to alignment without selling your soul, and notes wealthy individuals now carry more political punching power than corporations do. He's especially sharp on data centers, where polling shows tech, AI, and social media all deeply underwater and the backlash is "where Bannon meets Bernie" — the perception being that AI benefits only billionaires and shareholders. His prediction: the House flips and the Senate lands 50-50 — with Michigan the most interesting race on the board, because an El-Sayed win keeps DSA energy alive and makes AOC the 2028 frontrunner.
Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit Gerald Ford’s decision to pardon Richard Nixon and why the conventional wisdom of it being the right decision… is wrong. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.
Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM.
Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.
For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck/ *Paid Partnership
Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact
Timeline:
00:00 Chuck Todd's introduction
03:30 Fall campaign season kicks off after Labor Day
04:15 Why polling New Hampshire is so difficult
06:45 Democrats have a midterm advantage — the question is how big
07:30 Blue mirage, blue wave, or blue tsunami?
08:00 Evaluating the blue mirage — 15% chance
09:30 Under a mirage, Dems probably net only two Senate seats
11:30 Missouri map thrown out, could add a Democratic seat
12:30 The redistricting wars Republicans started
14:30 Dems raise better online, the GOP has the big-dollar donors
15:45 Tech and crypto money is flowing to Republicans
16:45 You can't buy a national mood, but you can save candidates
18:15 Both parties are equally unpopular — unlike 2018
19:15 Evaluating the blue wave — 50% chance
21:00 In a wave, individual races behave like a national election
23:15 How will the midterm GOP convention play out?
25:15 The convention is purely a base turnout exercise
27:00 Trump does better as an outsider than as an incumbent
29:15 Data centers have become a real political problem
31:00 The problem for Democrats: what are they actually offering?
33:15 Evaluating the blue tsunami — 30-35% chance
34:45 In a tsunami, Texas and Florida governorships are winnable
36:30 For a tsunami, corruption has to break through
37:30 Data centers may be the way into the corruption argument
38:45 The public is telling the tech industry to F off
41:45 If corruption becomes a voting issue, the wave becomes a tsunami
42:45 Will socialism and DSA attacks actually scare independents?
46:15 Independents will decide which scenario plays out
49:15 The WSJ report on John Fetterman
50:45 Will Fetterman still be a Democrat in January 2027?
52:15 Which side of the aisle will Fetterman and Murkowski sit on?
52:45 College football week one recap
1:16:30 Bruce Mehlman joins The Chuck ToddCast
1:18:45 Assessing the bifurcated economy
1:19:15 Millennials are wealthier than their parents — and more stressed
1:20:45 We need AI to pay off before the investment bill comes due
1:22:15 Is the AI bubble the railroads or the dot com boom?
1:25:30 Could the bust come when government can't respond?
1:26:30 From $20T to $40T in national debt in ten years
1:28:45 Social Security and Medicare trusts run dry in 2032
1:30:00 If bipartisanship is seen as betrayal, nothing gets done
1:31:45 A 3% tax increase and 3% spending cut would be a start
1:33:30 How is the business community preparing for a Democratic Congress?
1:35:15 An epic amount of oversight is coming
1:36:15 OLC claims executive privilege covers anyone who talks to Trump
1:38:45 Companies won't risk contempt of Congress
1:41:00 Advising clients on Trump's pay-to-play demands
1:43:00 There are paths to alignment without selling your soul
1:45:15 We need reforms to get out of this Gilded Age
1:47:30 How should big tech make the case for data centers?
1:50:30 Voters are open to data centers if harms are mitigated
1:53:30 Tech CEOs are viewed as villains by the public
1:55:30 The data center backlash is where Bannon meets Bernie
1:58:45 Is there anyone in Silicon Valley who can sell this?
2:05:45 What Walmart got right about storytelling
2:07:00 Prediction: the House flips and the Senate goes 50-50
2:09:30 If it's 50-50 and Alaska flips… what does Murkowski do?
2:11:00 Michigan is the most interesting race on the board
2:13:00 The bull case for James Talarico is Roy Moore in Alabama
2:16:30 ToddCast Time Machine - September 8th, 1974
2:17:00 Gerald Ford pardons Richard Nixon… a huge mistake
2:17:45 Ford earned a profile in courage award for pardoning Nixon
2:18:30 Did Ford’s pardon undermine the rule of law?
2:19:15 Nixon resigned because he lost his political support
2:20:15 Gerald Ford was never elected, he replaced Spiro Agnew
2:21:00 Ford declared our long national nightmare was over
2:23:30 There was a serious potential criminal case & pardon stopped it
2:24:15 Why Ford did have a valid argument for giving the pardon
2:26:00 It was not an easy call, Ford prioritized stability… but what was lost?
2:27:30 The alternative paths Ford could have taken
2:31:00 The normal pardon process wasn’t followed
2:32:30 Ford faced serious questions from congress about the pardon
2:35:30 Majority of the country supported prosecuting Nixon
2:37:00 Major backlash to the pardon
2:37:30 Eventually people thought Ford did the right thing
2:42:00 Ford created a serious dilemma for future presidents
2:45:00 We have the most corrupt president now because we punted on the last
2:45:15 Ask Chuck
2:45:30 Could AR-02 be won by Democrats in a wave year?
2:49:45 Why do voters support candidates that conflict with their economic interests?
2:54:45 What if a president was aggressive as Trump in doing things that are popular?
2:59:30 Would expanding the house restore power to members and committees?
3:03:00 How can Dems break through to working class & right leaning white voters?
For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck/ *Paid Partnership
Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd's introduction
03:30 Fall campaign season kicks off after Labor Day
04:15 Why polling New Hampshire is so difficult
06:45 Democrats have a midterm advantage — the question is how big
07:30 Blue mirage, blue wave, or blue tsunami?
08:00 Evaluating the blue mirage — 15% chance
09:30 Under a mirage, Dems probably net only two Senate seats
11:30 Missouri map thrown out, could add a Democratic seat
12:30 The redistricting wars Republicans started
14:30 Dems raise better online, the GOP has the big-dollar donors
15:45 Tech and crypto money is flowing to Republicans
16:45 You can't buy a national mood, but you can save candidates
18:15 Both parties are equally unpopular — unlike 2018
19:15 Evaluating the blue wave — 50% chance
21:00 In a wave, individual races behave like a national election
23:15 How will the midterm GOP convention play out?
25:15 The convention is purely a base turnout exercise
27:00 Trump does better as an outsider than as an incumbent
29:15 Data centers have become a real political problem
31:00 The problem for Democrats: what are they actually offering?
33:15 Evaluating the blue tsunami — 30-35% chance
34:45 In a tsunami, Texas and Florida governorships are winnable
36:30 For a tsunami, corruption has to break through
37:30 Data centers may be the way into the corruption argument
38:45 The public is telling the tech industry to F off
41:45 If corruption becomes a voting issue, the wave becomes a tsunami
42:45 Will socialism and DSA attacks actually scare independents?
46:15 Independents will decide which scenario plays out
49:15 The WSJ report on John Fetterman
50:45 Will Fetterman still be a Democrat in January 2027?
52:15 Which side of the aisle will Fetterman and Murkowski sit on?
52:45 College football week one recap
1:15:00 ToddCast Time Machine - September 8th, 1974
1:15:30 Gerald Ford pardons Richard Nixon… a huge mistake
1:16:15 Ford earned a profile in courage award for pardoning Nixon
1:17:00 Did Ford’s pardon undermine the rule of law?
1:17:45 Nixon resigned because he lost his political support
1:18:45 Gerald Ford was never elected, he replaced Spiro Agnew
1:19:30 Ford declared our long national nightmare was over
1:21:00 Why did Ford get to decide how much accountability we received
1:22:00 There was a serious potential criminal case & pardon stopped it
1:22:45 Why Ford did have a valid argument for giving the pardon
1:24:30 It was not an easy call, Ford prioritized stability… but what was lost?
1:26:00 The alternative paths Ford could have taken
1:27:30 Ford didn’t intend for investigations of others to stop
1:29:30 The normal pardon process wasn’t followed
1:31:00 Ford faced serious questions from congress about the pardon
1:34:00 Majority of the country supported prosecuting Nixon
1:35:30 Major backlash to the pardon
1:36:00 Eventually people thought Ford did the right thing
1:40:30 Ford created a serious dilemma for future presidents
1:43:30 We have the most corrupt president now because we punted on the last
1:43:45 Ask Chuck
1:44:00 Could AR-02 be won by Democrats in a wave year?
1:48:15 Why do voters support candidates that conflict with their economic interests?
1:53:15 What if a president was aggressive as Trump in doing things that are popular?
1:58:00 Would expanding the house restore power to members and committees?
2:01:30 How can Dems break through to working class & right leaning white voters?
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