Explorez tous les épisodes du podcast The Chuck ToddCast

Chuck Todd unleashes a fierce indictment of Trump's Iran war, walking through a series of devastating prophetic quotes from Trump's own 2016 Republican rivals, now supporters — Lindsey Graham calling his foreign policy "gibberish," Marco Rubio warning that turning the nuclear codes over to an erratic individual "wouldn't end well," Ted Cruz suggesting Trump could "nuke Denmark," and Nikki Haley raising alarms about his "irresponsible behavior" — all of which now look less like campaign rhetoric and more like haunting predictions of exactly the moment America finds itself in. He argues that whether you're a hawk or a dove on Iran, Donald Trump has failed you: he's pissed away American prestige and trust around the world, the Strait of Hormuz is now effectively in Iranian hands, the United States doesn't even know who it's negotiating with given uncertainty about the Ayatollah's status, and Trump is so desperate to escape the war he started that he was bizarrely celebrating a "ceasefire and joint venture with Iran" — a phrase that captures just how thoroughly this is turning into a massive humiliation for the United States. 

He notes that Netanyahu spent years trying to drag America into a war with Iran and finally found his sucker in Trump, that no advisor had the guts to challenge him before the strikes began, and that Obama's old foreign policy doctrine of "don't do stupid shit" has been violated in spectacular fashion. He flags an absurd new development — Trumpworld is now threatening the Vatican because the Pope spoke against the war, a politically idiotic move given how many Catholics live in swing states — and reiterates that success in the conflict would require ground troops Trump refuses to commit, meaning the damage is done and markets will take a long time to recover. Todd argues that the United States has become an erratic and unreliable ally to every country in the world, that the only nation benefiting from Trump's presidency is Russia. He closes on a political note: Democrats massively overperformed again in recent elections, including a shocking blowout in Wisconsin, the war is accelerating the GOP's problems heading into the midterms, and Republicans who distance themselves from Trump now will be very glad they did by 2028 — because the current political climate is pointing toward a massive blue wave.

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. 

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.

Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

00:30 Trump was celebrating the ceasefire & joint venture with Iran??

01:00 This is turning into a massive humiliation for the United States

02:00 Trump’s biggest GOP supporters sounded the alarm on him in 2016

02:45 We have pissed away American prestige and trust around the world

04:00 In May 2016, Lindsey Graham said Trump’s foreign policy is jibberish

05:15 March 2016, Rubio said Trump was the opposite of what America stands for

05:45 Rubio warned about turning over nuclear codes to an erratic individual

06:30 Rubio warned that electing Trump “wouldn’t end well”

07:30 If you’re a hawk or dove on Iran, Donald Trump has failed you*

08:00 In 2016, Ted Cruz warned that Trump could “nuke Denmark”

09:30 In 2016, Nikki Haley also warned about Trump’s “irresponsible behavior”

10:30 Netanyahu tried to drag U.S. into war for years, found a sucker in Trump

11:15 No Trump advisor had the guts to challenge Trump on Iran before war

11:45 Obama’s strategy was “Don’t do stupid shit” - This war is “stupid shit”

12:30 Trump is desperate to get out of war, willing to take any deal

15:00 The Strait is now in the hands of the Iranians

15:30 We don’t know the state of the Ayatollah…who are we negotiating with?

16:30 The Pope spoke against the war, now Trumpworld threatening the Vatican

17:15 There are a lot of Catholics in swing states, picking fight w/pope is idiotic

18:30 Success requires ground troops & Trump doesn’t want to do that

20:00 The damage has been done, it will take time for markets to recover

21:15 The U.S. has become an erratic and unreliable ally

22:15 Trump gravitates toward being sold the best possible outcome

24:00 The word of the United States used to mean something

25:00 Trump has made our relationship with every country worse

26:30 The mistake people make is thinking they can control Trump

27:30 The next president will have to fix or apologize for things Trump did

29:30 Only one country is benefitting from Trump’s presidency…Russia

30:45 Rubio’s quote “this won’t end well” will live in infamy

31:15 Democrats massively overperformed again in recent elections

32:00 Wisconsin election was a shocking blowout for the Democrats

32:30 War is accelerating GOP’s problems heading into midterms

33:15 Republicans that distance from Trump will be glad they did by 2028

34:45 Current political climate portends a massive blue wave

40:00 Ask Chuck

40:15 What is being missed that will bite us in the future?

46:00 What’s the most “Veep” thing you’ve seen in DC?

49:30 Why haven’t Democrats tapped into talk radio like Republicans have?

55:00 Didn’t mention Washington state in one party drought Top 5 list?

58:30 If the war ends, can Republicans run on the economy in 2026?

1:01:30 Forcing ownership changes if sports teams underperform?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd unleashes a fierce indictment of Trump's Iran war, walking through a series of devastating prophetic quotes from Trump's own 2016 Republican rivals, now supporters — Lindsey Graham calling his foreign policy "gibberish," Marco Rubio warning that turning the nuclear codes over to an erratic individual "wouldn't end well," Ted Cruz suggesting Trump could "nuke Denmark," and Nikki Haley raising alarms about his "irresponsible behavior" — all of which now look less like campaign rhetoric and more like haunting predictions of exactly the moment America finds itself in. He argues that whether you're a hawk or a dove on Iran, Donald Trump has failed you: he's pissed away American prestige and trust around the world, the Strait of Hormuz is now effectively in Iranian hands, the United States doesn't even know who it's negotiating with given uncertainty about the Ayatollah's status, and Trump is so desperate to escape the war he started that he was bizarrely celebrating a "ceasefire and joint venture with Iran" — a phrase that captures just how thoroughly this is turning into a massive humiliation for the United States. 

He notes that Netanyahu spent years trying to drag America into a war with Iran and finally found his sucker in Trump, that no advisor had the guts to challenge him before the strikes began, and that Obama's old foreign policy doctrine of "don't do stupid shit" has been violated in spectacular fashion. He flags an absurd new development — Trumpworld is now threatening the Vatican because the Pope spoke against the war, a politically idiotic move given how many Catholics live in swing states — and reiterates that success in the conflict would require ground troops Trump refuses to commit, meaning the damage is done and markets will take a long time to recover. Todd argues that the United States has become an erratic and unreliable ally to every country in the world, that the only nation benefiting from Trump's presidency is Russia. He closes on a political note: Democrats massively overperformed again in recent elections, including a shocking blowout in Wisconsin, the war is accelerating the GOP's problems heading into the midterms, and Republicans who distance themselves from Trump now will be very glad they did by 2028 — because the current political climate is pointing toward a massive blue wave.

Pulitzer Prize finalist and historian Megan Kate Nelson — author of the new book The Westerners: Mythmaking and Belonging on the American Frontier — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a fascinating conversation about how the story of the American West we all grew up with is largely a myth, and what the real history reveals about who actually built the country. Nelson explains that the dominant narrative was essentially invented by historian Frederick Jackson Turner in 1893, who argued the American creed was rooted in conquest and expansion — a framing that conveniently allowed white Americans to rally around westward expansion as a unifying project while papering over the uncomfortable realities of slavery and the brutal treatment of indigenous peoples. She walks through her seven central characters whose stories reclaim that history: Sacagawea (who wasn't actually famous until the 20th century), biracial fur trader Jim Beckwourth, Hispana saloon owner María Gertrudis Barceló (whose Santa Fe establishment inspired the modern Vegas casino), gold miner and newspaperman Ovando Hollister (who believed in human equality and later moved to Salt Lake City to agitate against the Mormons), Northern Cheyenne chief Little Wolf, Canadian immigrant rancher Ella Watson, and Chinese immigrant Polly Bemis. Nelson reveals the most surprising research findings — including how digitized old Colorado newspapers helped her discover stories that had been lost for generations — and discusses how Hollywood created and popularized the caricatures of the West that still dominate pop culture today.

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. 

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.

Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

00:30 Trump was celebrating the ceasefire & joint venture with Iran??

01:00 This is turning into a massive humiliation for the United States

02:00 Trump’s biggest GOP supporters sounded the alarm on him in 2016

02:45 We have pissed away American prestige and trust around the world

04:00 In May 2016, Lindsey Graham said Trump’s foreign policy is jibberish

05:15 March 2016, Rubio said Trump was the opposite of what America stands for

05:45 Rubio warned about turning over nuclear codes to an erratic individual

06:30 Rubio warned that electing Trump “wouldn’t end well”

07:30 If you’re a hawk or dove on Iran, Donald Trump has failed you*

08:00 In 2016, Ted Cruz warned that Trump could “nuke Denmark”

09:30 In 2016, Nikki Haley also warned about Trump’s “irresponsible behavior”

10:30 Netanyahu tried to drag U.S. into war for years, found a sucker in Trump

11:15 No Trump advisor had the guts to challenge Trump on Iran before war

11:45 Obama’s strategy was “Don’t do stupid shit” - This war is “stupid shit”

12:30 Trump is desperate to get out of war, willing to take any deal

15:00 The Strait is now in the hands of the Iranians

15:30 We don’t know the state of the Ayatollah…who are we negotiating with?

16:30 The Pope spoke against the war, now Trumpworld threatening the Vatican

17:15 There are a lot of Catholics in swing states, picking fight w/pope is idiotic

18:30 Success requires ground troops & Trump doesn’t want to do that

20:00 The damage has been done, it will take time for markets to recover

21:15 The U.S. has become an erratic and unreliable ally

22:15 Trump gravitates toward being sold the best possible outcome

24:00 The word of the United States used to mean something

25:00 Trump has made our relationship with every country worse

26:30 The mistake people make is thinking they can control Trump

27:30 The next president will have to fix or apologize for things Trump did

29:30 Only one country is benefitting from Trump’s presidency…Russia

30:45 Rubio’s quote “this won’t end well” will live in infamy

31:15 Democrats massively overperformed again in recent elections

32:00 Wisconsin election was a shocking blowout for the Democrats

32:30 War is accelerating GOP’s problems heading into midterms

33:15 Republicans that distance from Trump will be glad they did by 2028

34:45 Current political climate portends a massive blue wave

41:45 Megan Kate Nelson joins the Chuck ToddCast

43:15 What got you interested in the topic for The Westerners?

45:30 People still have a very entrenched idea of what the west is

46:45 The portrayal of the west has been improved in pop culture

48:30 Frederick Jackson Turner created the “myth” of the west

50:00 Turner argued the American creed was based on conquest & expansion

51:45 Turner’s narrative became the standard telling of American history

52:45 Western expansion papered over uncomfortable 19th century history

53:30 White Americans could rally around the west & avoid slavery

54:45 How did you get your research on the subjects of The Westerners?

55:30 Sacagawea wasn’t famous until the 20th century

56:15 Lewis & Clark was a core piece of context for the book

57:30 Most unique source material you found that filled in gaps?

1:00:45 Old local newspapers from Colorado were digitized, allowing discovery

1:02:00 Hollywood created and popularized caricatures of the west

1:03:00 Fears and hopes for the new “Little House on the Prairie" reboot?

1:04:45 How much did Laura Ingalls Wilder book create their own mythology?

1:05:45 White settlers received a great deal of help from the federal government

1:06:45 Transcontinental railroad enables the explosion of the cattle industry

1:07:15 Military deployed to protect white settlers, annihilate the indigenous

1:08:30 Expansion wasn’t just an east-west story, it was also a north-south story

1:11:45 Vegas casinos inspired by Maria Barcelo’s Santa Fe saloon

1:14:15 The story of southern migration from Canada

1:16:15 Timeline of the book is most of the 19th century

1:17:00 Role of Chinese workers/immigrants in the story of the west

1:18:45 Chinese workers came on a false promise, were trapped in their labor

1:22:15 Impact of the Chinese Exclusion Act

1:23:45 The story of Ovando Hollister

1:25:45 Hollister believed in the equality of all people. Went from military to newspapers

1:27:30 Hollister moved to Salt Lake City & agitated against the Mormons

1:28:15 Stories of the Native Americans are finally being depicted better

1:29:00 The story of Little Wolf

1:30:45 Little Wolf was a great military strategist and leader for his people

1:33:45 Histories of the west were heavily shaded by original bias

1:34:45 Balancing objectivity with your personal bias when writing history

1:36:15 Connecting individual stories in history to larger movements & moments

1:37:15 How would improve school curriculum to honestly depict the west?

1:41:30 The west was fairly violent before law enforcement became normalized

1:42:30 Next project is the story of a Kiowa and Comanche raid on ranching town

1:45:00 Ask Chuck

1:45:15 What is being missed that will bite us in the future?

1:51:00 What’s the most “Veep” thing you’ve seen in DC?

1:54:30 Why haven’t Democrats tapped into talk radio like Republicans have?

2:00:00 Didn’t mention Washington state in one party drought Top 5 list?

2:03:30 If the war ends, can Republicans run on the economy in 2026?

2:06:30 Forcing ownership changes if sports teams underperform?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Pulitzer Prize finalist and historian Megan Kate Nelson — author of the new book The Westerners: Mythmaking and Belonging on the American Frontier — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a fascinating conversation about how the story of the American West we all grew up with is largely a myth, and what the real history reveals about who actually built the country. Nelson explains that the dominant narrative was essentially invented by historian Frederick Jackson Turner in 1893, who argued the American creed was rooted in conquest and expansion — a framing that conveniently allowed white Americans to rally around westward expansion as a unifying project while papering over the uncomfortable realities of slavery and the brutal treatment of indigenous peoples.

She walks through her seven central characters whose stories reclaim that history: Sacagawea (who wasn't actually famous until the 20th century), biracial fur trader Jim Beckwourth, Hispana saloon owner María Gertrudis Barceló (whose Santa Fe establishment inspired the modern Vegas casino), gold miner and newspaperman Ovando Hollister (who believed in human equality and later moved to Salt Lake City to agitate against the Mormons), Northern Cheyenne chief Little Wolf, Canadian immigrant rancher Ella Watson, and Chinese immigrant Polly Bemis. Nelson reveals the most surprising research findings — including how digitized old Colorado newspapers helped her discover stories that had been lost for generations — and discusses how Hollywood created and popularized the caricatures of the West that still dominate pop culture today.

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.

Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Megan Kate Nelson joins the Chuck ToddCast

01:30 What got you interested in the topic for The Westerners?

03:45 People still have a very entrenched idea of what the west is

05:00 The portrayal of the west has been improved in pop culture

06:45 Frederick Jackson Turner created the “myth” of the west

08:15 Turner argued the American creed was based on conquest & expansion

10:00 Turner’s narrative became the standard telling of American history

11:00 Western expansion papered over uncomfortable 19th century history

11:45 White Americans could rally around the west & avoid slavery

13:00 How did you get your research on the subjects of The Westerners?

13:45 Sacagawea wasn’t famous until the 20th century

14:30 Lewis & Clark was a core piece of context for the book

15:45 Most unique source material you found that filled in gaps?

19:00 Old local newspapers from Colorado were digitized, allowing discovery

20:15 Hollywood created and popularized caricatures of the west

21:15 Fears and hopes for the new “Little House on the Prairie" reboot?

23:00 How much did Laura Ingalls Wilder book create their own mythology?

24:00 White settlers received a great deal of help from the federal government

25:00 Transcontinental railroad enables the explosion of the cattle industry

25:30 Military deployed to protect white settlers, annihilate the indigenous 

26:45 Expansion wasn’t just an east-west story, it was also a north-south story

30:00 Vegas casinos inspired by Maria Barcelo’s Santa Fe saloon

32:30 The story of southern migration from Canada 

34:30 Timeline of the book is most of the 19th century

35:15 Role of Chinese workers/immigrants in the story of the west

37:00 Chinese workers came on a false promise, were trapped in their labor

40:30 Impact of the Chinese Exclusion Act

42:00 The story of Ovando Hollister

44:00 Hollister believed in the equality of all people. Went from military to newspapers

45:45 Hollister moved to Salt Lake City & agitated against the Mormons

46:30 Stories of the Native Americans are finally being depicted better

47:15 The story of Little Wolf

49:00 Little Wolf was a great military strategist and leader for his people

52:00 Histories of the west were heavily shaded by original bias

53:00 Balancing objectivity with your personal bias when writing history

54:30 Connecting individual stories in history to larger movements & moments

55:30 How would improve school curriculum to honestly depict the west?

59:45 The west was fairly violent before law enforcement became normalized

1:00:45 Next project is the story of a Kiowa and Comanche raid on ranching town

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd predicts Trump will look for an offramp after his shocking "civilization will die" threat, noting that even in an era where people are numb to Trump's rhetoric, this particular statement genuinely rattled supporters and critics alike — yet only two elected Republicans have expressed even mild discomfort, which he calls unacceptable when a sitting president is openly threatening a war crime and behaving, in his words, like a terrorist thug. He then unpacks a blockbuster New York Times report detailing how Trump was talked into the Iran war, revealing that only two people in the entire decision-making process thought it was a good idea: Trump himself and Benjamin Netanyahu. The Times piece shows that Trump's own advisors tried to steer him away from the conflict, that JD Vance was privately against it, and that Netanyahu — who has spent years trying to get an American president to fight Iran on Israel's behalf, only to be rebuffed by Clinton, Bush, Obama, and Biden finally found his willing partner in Trump..

He then pivots to JD Vance campaigning in Europe on behalf of Hungarian dictator Viktor Orbán while trashing America's European allies — effectively siding with Putin in the Hungarian election and betraying the values America was founded on — and predicts it will be a generation before the U.S. is trusted on the world stage again. He closes with sharp analysis of the Virginia redistricting referendum, which he says is hurting Governor Abigail Spanberger politically by labeling her as "partisan" in ways she didn't earn, noting that Democrats would have picked up 2-3 Virginia seats without the aggressive redistricting push and that independent voters — already exhausted by partisan garbage — may punish Democrats for fighting fire with fire.

Finally, he gives his ToddCast Top 5 states most likely to end their 4 term one-party drought in the 2026 elections, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.

Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

00:45 Trump will look for offramp after threatening civilizational destruction

01:30 People are numb to Trump, but this statement still shocked people

03:00 Only two elected Republicans have expressed discomfort 

05:30 When the president threatens a war crime, leaders need to speak out

06:45 Trump is behaving like a terrorist thug

08:00 Everybody saw Trump’s comment, even supporters are uncomfortable

09:15 NYT reporters release piece explaining how Trump was talked into war

10:45 Only two people thought war was a good idea: Trump & Netanyahu

12:00 Iran wanted to assassinate Trump, there’s personal animosity here

12:45 This war has NOT been in the best interest of the United States

13:30 Advisors to Trump tried to steer him away from war

14:30 NYT piece will make Trump nuts over “leaks”

16:00 Vance shown as against the war in the NYT piece

17:00 Trump is on an island over the war, even amongst his staff

18:00 Netanyahu made it sound like regime change would be easy

18:30 Bibi wanted a U.S. president to go to war for years, they all said no

19:15 Clinton, Bush, Obama and Biden all rebuffed Netanyahu

21:15 Biden shouted down Bibi as a liar

22:00 Bibi finally found a president willing to acquiesce in Trump

22:45 Bibi’s power in Israel comes from fear of the Iranians

23:45 This story will poison Israel’s reputation with the American public

25:30 NYT story should be more explosive, but Trump’s rhetoric stole headlines

27:00 Trump is advocating war crimes even if he doesn’t commit one

27:45 Trump has not brainwashed the public into thinking war is a good idea

28:45 Vance is campaigning on behalf of Hungarian dictator Viktor Orban

29:45 Vance is in Europe trashing America’s European allies

30:30 The U.S. is siding with Putin in Hungarian election, betraying our values

31:15 It’ll be a generation before America is trusted again on the world stage

33:45 America fought for independence against autocratic rule

35:00 Can Trump get a deal to open the Strait without embarrassing the U.S.?

36:00 Redistricting referendum in VA has hurt Abigail Spanberger politically

37:00 Yes on redistricting will win, but margins are narrow

39:15 Independent voters don’t like the partisan garbage, Dems could lose them

41:00 Spanberger is getting labeled as “partisan” in all the wrong ways

41:45 Democrats would have picked up 2-3 seats without redistricting

43:15 Voters will tire of either party governing in a too partisan manner

49:00 New episode of the “Dynastic” podcast available!

51:15 ToddCast Top 5 states that could end their 4 term one party droughts

53:15 #1 Iowa

53:45 #2 Ohio

56:00 #3 Georgia

57:45 #4 Alabama

1:00:00 #5 Texas

1:02:00 Honorable mentions

1:03:15 Ask Chuck

1:03:30 What would campaigning look like if the electoral college was abolished?

1:07:00 Is there any chance Republicans will find a way to remove Trump from office?

1:09:15 What’s with Hegseth ousting top generals? Are Geneva Conventions defunct?

1:11:30 Why haven’t Dems taken steps in court over War Powers?

1:14:00 Are all hopes of a two-state solution dead?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Lauren Gustus — executive editor of The Salt Lake Tribune — joins the Chuck Toddcast ahead of Local News Day on April 9th to discuss how a legacy daily newspaper completely reimagined itself as a nonprofit and is now taking its paywall down entirely in May, betting that free access and a members-based support model is the path to long-term sustainability. Gustus walks through the Tribune's fascinating history: the newspaper once had a 50-person desk dedicated just to youth sports, was heavily supported by the Huntsman family, had a joint operating agreement with the Deseret News, and — like so many local papers — eventually became a target for private equity firms. She explains how the Tribune transitioned to its nonprofit structure, acquired the Moab Times and retained those subscribers, created unique member benefits that require a paid subscription, and is now experimenting with how to serve Utah as both a statewide and hyper-local paper. She emphasizes that local news consumers are incredibly engaged and curious, that reporters need to understand their audience before doing the work, and that there has to be a genuine public service aspect to local journalism or the whole model falls apart.

The conversation turns to the specific challenges of covering Utah — a state where the intersection of faith, business, and politics is uniquely intense. Gustus explains that the Tribune's reporters covering the LDS church are themselves LDS members, which she argues allows them to report honestly and with context rather than creating conflict of interest concerns. She notes that Utah politics is often described as divisive but more polite than elsewhere, and suggests that the state's tradition of mission service creates a more worldly electorate than outsiders assume. On the editorial page, Gustus says the Tribune still sends questionnaires to political candidates because voters need information, not instruction on how to vote, and reveals that the paper receives dozens of Trump op-ed submissions but declines to run them. She discusses the messy ongoing redistricting war in Utah, the potential opportunity created by the Nexstar/Tegna merger consolidating local TV news, and makes the case that the Tribune's model — nonprofit structure, reader engagement, statewide ambition, and free access — is fundamentally repeatable in other markets across the country, which is exactly the kind of story Local News Day is designed to amplify.

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.

Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Lauren Gustus joins the Chuck ToddCast

02:30 SL Tribune is a legacy publication that’s been reimagined

03:30 The Tribune used to have a 50 person desk for youth sports

05:00 Huntsman family was a massive booster of the Tribune

05:45 Transitioning the Tribune to a nonprofit model

07:30 In May, the Tribune will be taking down their paywall

09:30 Private Equity bought newspapers in order to obtain their real estate

10:45 Tribune had a joint operating agreement with Deseret News

12:30 Local news has to constantly pivot between revenue sources

14:30 How many hybrid funding models were considered?

15:45 Acquired the Moab Times & subscribers kept paying

16:30 Creating unique member benefits that require a paid subscription

18:00 Local news consumers are incredibly engaged and curious

19:15 Reporters need to understand the audience before doing the work

21:15 There has to be a public service aspect to local journalism

24:30 Has local advertising gotten harder, easier or just different?

27:30 Are there different models for relationships with reporters?

28:30 Independent contractor/freelancer model hasn’t caught on in SLC

30:30 Stories should be tailored to the platform if resources allow

32:45 Instagram isn’t monetizable, but good for reaching a subscriber base

34:30 What model have you chosen for your editorial page?

36:00 Tribune still sends questionnaires to political candidates

36:45 Voters need info, don’t need to be told how to vote

38:30 Trib receives dozens of Trump Op-Eds, doesn’t run them

39:00 How do you cover the LDS church? 

40:30 Tribune team covering the church are LDS members, but still report honestly

42:00 Intersectionality of faith, business and politics is huge in Salt Lake City

43:30 Utah politics is seen as divisive but more polite… is that true?

44:00 Mission service creates a more worldly electorate in Utah

46:00 The redistricting war in Utah has been incredibly messy

47:45 Nexstar/Tegna merger will consolidate TV news, is that an opportunity for you?

49:00 Tribune strives to be a statewide & local paper for all of Utah

51:30 Tribune model is repeatable

52:00 Plans for Local News Day on April 9th?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd predicts Trump will look for an offramp after his shocking "civilization will die" threat, noting that even in an era where people are numb to Trump's rhetoric, this particular statement genuinely rattled supporters and critics alike — yet only two elected Republicans have expressed even mild discomfort, which he calls unacceptable when a sitting president is openly threatening a war crime and behaving, in his words, like a terrorist thug. He then unpacks a blockbuster New York Times report detailing how Trump was talked into the Iran war, revealing that only two people in the entire decision-making process thought it was a good idea: Trump himself and Benjamin Netanyahu. The Times piece shows that Trump's own advisors tried to steer him away from the conflict, that JD Vance was privately against it, and that Netanyahu — who has spent years trying to get an American president to fight Iran on Israel's behalf, only to be rebuffed by Clinton, Bush, Obama, and Biden finally found his willing partner in Trump..

He then pivots to JD Vance campaigning in Europe on behalf of Hungarian dictator Viktor Orbán while trashing America's European allies — effectively siding with Putin in the Hungarian election and betraying the values America was founded on — and predicts it will be a generation before the U.S. is trusted on the world stage again. He closes with sharp analysis of the Virginia redistricting referendum, which he says is hurting Governor Abigail Spanberger politically by labeling her as "partisan" in ways she didn't earn, noting that Democrats would have picked up 2-3 Virginia seats without the aggressive redistricting push and that independent voters — already exhausted by partisan garbage — may punish Democrats for fighting fire with fire.

Then, Lauren Gustus — executive editor of The Salt Lake Tribune — joins the Chuck Toddcast ahead of Local News Day on April 9th to discuss how a legacy daily newspaper completely reimagined itself as a nonprofit and is now taking its paywall down entirely in May, betting that free access and a members-based support model is the path to long-term sustainability. Gustus walks through the Tribune's fascinating history: the newspaper once had a 50-person desk dedicated just to youth sports, was heavily supported by the Huntsman family, had a joint operating agreement with the Deseret News, and — like so many local papers — eventually became a target for private equity firms. She explains how the Tribune transitioned to its nonprofit structure, acquired the Moab Times and retained those subscribers, created unique member benefits that require a paid subscription, and is now experimenting with how to serve Utah as both a statewide and hyper-local paper. She emphasizes that local news consumers are incredibly engaged and curious, that reporters need to understand their audience before doing the work, and that there has to be a genuine public service aspect to local journalism or the whole model falls apart.

The conversation turns to the specific challenges of covering Utah — a state where the intersection of faith, business, and politics is uniquely intense. Gustus explains that the Tribune's reporters covering the LDS church are themselves LDS members, which she argues allows them to report honestly and with context rather than creating conflict of interest concerns. She notes that Utah politics is often described as divisive but more polite than elsewhere, and suggests that the state's tradition of mission service creates a more worldly electorate than outsiders assume. On the editorial page, Gustus says the Tribune still sends questionnaires to political candidates because voters need information, not instruction on how to vote, and reveals that the paper receives dozens of Trump op-ed submissions but declines to run them. She discusses the messy ongoing redistricting war in Utah, the potential opportunity created by the Nexstar/Tegna merger consolidating local TV news, and makes the case that the Tribune's model — nonprofit structure, reader engagement, statewide ambition, and free access — is fundamentally repeatable in other markets across the country, which is exactly the kind of story Local News Day is designed to amplify.

Finally, he gives his ToddCast Top 5 states most likely to end their 4 term one-party drought in the 2026 elections, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.

Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

00:45 Trump will look for offramp after threatening civilizational destruction

01:30 People are numb to Trump, but this statement still shocked people

03:00 Only two elected Republicans have expressed discomfort 

05:30 When the president threatens a war crime, leaders need to speak out

06:45 Trump is behaving like a terrorist thug

08:00 Everybody saw Trump’s comment, even supporters are uncomfortable

09:15 NYT reporters release piece explaining how Trump was talked into war

10:45 Only two people thought war was a good idea: Trump & Netanyahu

12:00 Iran wanted to assassinate Trump, there’s personal animosity here

12:45 This war has NOT been in the best interest of the United States

13:30 Advisors to Trump tried to steer him away from war

14:30 NYT piece will make Trump nuts over “leaks”

16:00 Vance shown as against the war in the NYT piece

17:00 Trump is on an island over the war, even amongst his staff

18:00 Netanyahu made it sound like regime change would be easy

18:30 Bibi wanted a U.S. president to go to war for years, they all said no

19:15 Clinton, Bush, Obama and Biden all rebuffed Netanyahu

21:15 Biden shouted down Bibi as a liar

22:00 Bibi finally found a president willing to acquiesce in Trump

22:45 Bibi’s power in Israel comes from fear of the Iranians

23:45 This story will poison Israel’s reputation with the American public

25:30 NYT story should be more explosive, but Trump’s rhetoric stole headlines

27:00 Trump is advocating war crimes even if he doesn’t commit one

27:45 Trump has not brainwashed the public into thinking war is a good idea

28:45 Vance is campaigning on behalf of Hungarian dictator Viktor Orban

29:45 Vance is in Europe trashing America’s European allies

30:30 The U.S. is siding with Putin in Hungarian election, betraying our values

31:15 It’ll be a generation before America is trusted again on the world stage

33:45 America fought for independence against autocratic rule

35:00 Can Trump get a deal to open the Strait without embarrassing the U.S.?

36:00 Redistricting referendum in VA has hurt Abigail Spanberger politically

37:00 Yes on redistricting will win, but margins are narrow

39:15 Independent voters don’t like the partisan garbage, Dems could lose them

41:00 Spanberger is getting labeled as “partisan” in all the wrong ways

41:45 Democrats would have picked up 2-3 seats without redistricting

43:15 Voters will tire of either party governing in a too partisan manner

50:00 Lauren Gustus joins the Chuck ToddCast

52:30 SL Tribune is a legacy publication that’s been reimagined

53:30 The Tribune used to have a 50 person desk for youth sports

55:00 Huntsman family was a massive booster of the Tribune

55:45 Transitioning the Tribune to a nonprofit model

57:30 In May, the Tribune will be taking down their paywall

59:30 Private Equity bought newspapers in order to obtain their real estate

1:00:45 Tribune had a joint operating agreement with Deseret News

1:02:30 Local news has to constantly pivot between revenue sources

1:04:30 How many hybrid funding models were considered?

1:05:45 Acquired the Moab Times & subscribers kept paying

1:06:30 Creating unique member benefits that require a paid subscription

1:08:00 Local news consumers are incredibly engaged and curious

1:09:15 Reporters need to understand the audience before doing the work

1:11:15 There has to be a public service aspect to local journalism

1:14:30 Has local advertising gotten harder, easier or just different?

1:17:30 Are there different models for relationships with reporters?

1:18:30 Independent contractor/freelancer model hasn’t caught on in SLC

1:20:30 Stories should be tailored to the platform if resources allow

1:22:45 Instagram isn’t monetizable, but good for reaching a subscriber base

1:24:30 What model have you chosen for your editorial page?

1:26:00 Tribune still sends questionnaires to political candidates

1:26:45 Voters need info, don’t need to be told how to vote

1:28:30 Trib receives dozens of Trump Op-Eds, doesn’t run them

1:29:00 How do you cover the LDS church?

1:30:30 Tribune team covering the church are LDS members, but still report honestly

1:32:00 Intersectionality of faith, business and politics is huge in Salt Lake City

1:33:30 Utah politics is seen as divisive but more polite… is that true?

1:34:00 Mission service creates a more worldly electorate in Utah

1:36:00 The redistricting war in Utah has been incredibly messy

1:37:45 Nexstar/Tegna merger will consolidate TV news, is that an opportunity for you?

1:39:00 Tribune strives to be a statewide & local paper for all of Utah

1:41:30 Tribune model is repeatable

1:42:00 Plans for Local News Day on April 9th?

1:42:30 New episode of the “Dynastic” podcast available!

1:44:45 ToddCast Top 5 states that could end their 4 term one party droughts

1:46:45 #1 Iowa

1:47:15 #2 Ohio

1:49:30 #3 Georgia

1:51:15 #4 Alabama

1:53:30 #5 Texas

1:55:30 Honorable mentions

1:56:45 Ask Chuck

1:57:00 What would campaigning look like if the electoral college was abolished?

2:00:30 Is there any chance Republicans will find a way to remove Trump from office?

2:02:45 What’s with Hegseth ousting top generals? Are Geneva Conventions defunct?

2:05:00 Why haven’t Dems taken steps in court over War Powers?

2:07:30 Are all hopes of a two-state solution dead?

2:09:45 Raphael Warnock’s chances as a dark horse presidential candidate?

2:15:30 Shoutout to the Packers

2:17:45 Could a southern Dem put Florida in play in 2028?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On this special episode of the ToddCast, Chuck Todd delivers a chilling monologue in response to Trump's Truth Social post warning that "a civilization will die" — a phrase Chuck asks listeners to sit with, because a sitting American president is now openly threatening the annihilation of an entire civilization and getting almost no pushback for it. He notes the ominous context: Defense Secretary Hegseth has purged the top ranks of the military, potentially clearing the way for orders that career officers might otherwise resist, and Trump's post is filled with the kind of contradictions that suggest a president who has lost both strategic focus and emotional control. He says it wouldn't shock him if Trump has privately inquired about using a tactical nuclear weapon and warns that with Trump you don't have to take him literally, but you absolutely have to take him seriously. He argues that America has abdicated its leadership role in ways that are now creating more problems than they solve, that Trump is handing the Iranian regime massive propaganda wins by threatening civilizational destruction. He closes with a stark binary: either Trump commits an irredeemable atrocity that will stain America's reputation for generations, or he does what he always does when cornered — he "TACOs" (Trump Always Chickens Out).

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction - Trump warns “a civilization will die”

00:45 Sit with that… A president is threatening an entire civilization

01:15 Trump talks tough, but isn’t really a “tough guy”

02:00 Hegseth purged top military leaders… clearing the way?

03:00 Trump’s Truth Social post is filled with contradictions

03:45 Trump gets no pushback, this is a scary moment

04:15 He probably thinks “Truman dropped bomb, now Japan is an ally”

05:00 Wouldn’t be shocking if Trump inquired about dropping tactical nuke

05:30 You don’t have to take him literally, but do take him somewhat seriously

06:15 White House tells AFP a nuclear bomb isn’t being considered

06:45 U.S. has abdicated leadership, causing more problems than solving

07:45 Trump is bragging that Venezuela is a success… it isn’t 

08:45 Trump is handing propaganda wins to the Iranian regime

09:30 This is on us as Americans, Trump told us who he was before election

10:30 Elected Republicans still refuse & are afraid to criticize Trump

11:45 Either Trump commits an irredeemable atrocity… or he TACOs

13:00 The regime killed its own people for protesting…you think they’re afraid?

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this special edition of "Dynastic", legendary Dodgers announcer Jaime Jarrin joins Chuck Todd and J.A. Adande to discuss his favorite games, the rise of FernandoMania, his relationship with Vin Scully, and the controversial move from Brooklyn to Los Angeles.

Please FOLLOW for upcoming episodes.

Follow the show on our social accounts:

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See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens with the harrowing story of two F-15 operators who went missing over Iran and had to be extracted by U.S. Special Forces — a dramatic rescue the administration is now using to obscure the larger failures of a war that is clearly not going well, starting with the fact that Defense Secretary Hegseth's description of "uncontested airspace" was demonstrably false and raises the most important question nobody in the Pentagon wants to answer: why did we need a rescue mission in the first place? He catalogs a weekend of Trump's unraveling: a Truth Social post telling Iran to "open the fuckin strait, you crazy bastards," a seemingly deliberate insult to Muslims with a sarcastic "praise be to allah" reference, and an unhinged Easter morning rant that Todd challenges Evangelicals to defend — all while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed after three weeks of empty threats, energy expert Daniel Yergin has called this the worst energy disruption in history, and control of the strait now gives Iran more leverage than a nuclear weapon ever would. Todd warns that the world economy is far more interconnected than during the 1970s oil shocks and that even if the war stopped today, it would take a year to restore supply chains to normal. He highlights Republican Senator John Curtis of Utah challenging the very premise of the war and drawing a direct parallel to Vietnam's gradual escalation, notes that Congress has just three weeks until the 60-day War Powers clause kicks in, and excoriates lawmakers for doing nothing while Trump threatens Iranian infrastructure in ways that could constitute war crimes under the Geneva Convention — a framework Pete Hegseth clearly doesn't care about. He closes with a quick dissection of Trump's executive order on college sports, which he dismisses as a glorified press release with no enforcement mechanism, no controlling legal authority, and zero chance of surviving legal challenges — just another document designed to generate talking points from an administration so unpopular the public won't even side with them on an issue where there's genuine bipartisan frustration.

Then, Mike Pesca — the veteran journalist, podcaster, and host of The Gist — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a wide-ranging conversation that covers everything from the structural reforms American democracy desperately needs to why the NBA regular season is unwatchable. They dig into the emergence of the "never Trump media" ecosystem and argue that both parties have become fundamentally reactionary, with internal debates in each reduced to full resistance versus compromise. They make the case that partisan primaries are the single biggest driver of hyperpartisanship, that competitive districts would produce more reasonable candidates and debate which reforms could actually break the cycle. They note that if California's jungle primary produces a Republican governor, Democrats will reform the system within a year, and that with so many big-name Democrats in the crowded field, at least one major candidate needs to drop out before they cannibalize each other.

The conversation shifts to what Democrats should do if they control Congress. Pesca argues that Democrats can't brand themselves as the alternative to the "do nothing GOP" and then do nothing themselves — a child tax credit expansion is something Democrats and JD Vance could theoretically agree on, and being seen as on the side of the consumer is both good policy and great politics. They zero in on surveillance pricing as the issue ripe for bipartisan action: airlines using your personal data to gouge you is gross and bills are already moving in state legislatures to ban digital price tags, though Chuck notes there are legitimate upsides to dynamic pricing based on supply and demand that shouldn't be thrown out with the bathwater. They discuss how consumer advocacy once gave news media enormous credibility and trust, how the public feels big tech has too much control over everything, and how creating a caucus of independents in the Senate could serve as a powerful fulcrum — since independent candidates shouldn't have to choose between Trump and Schumer to be effective. The episode closes with a surprisingly passionate sports segment where they agree that March Madness exposes how unwatchable the NBA regular season has become, that tanking and load management are destroying competitive integrity, and that urgency — the thing college basketball's single-elimination format delivers in abundance — is what creates truly great sports.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the beginning and end of America’s participation in the Civil War & World War 1, and argues that the underlying disagreements of both conflicts have never been resolved. He also takes listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and weighs in on the latest in sports.

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.

Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

01:15 Check out Chuck’s sports podcast “Dynastic”!

04:30 Moderating debate “Is gambling is the new pornography?”

05:30 Trump silent after F-15 operator was missing in Iran

06:15 Fear was an American pilot captured by the regime

06:45 U.S. Special forces able to extract both F-15 operators

07:30 Success of rescue being used to obscure Trump’s failures

08:15 Hegseth’s description of “uncontested airspace” was false

09:00 Most important question… Why did we need rescue in the first place?

09:45 Things are not going well in this war

10:15 Hegseth has not been telling the public the truth

11:30 Congress would normally provide oversight, but they’ve been neutered

12:30 Trump posts “Open the fuckin strait, you crazy bastards”

13:30 Trump seemingly insults muslims with “Praise be to allah” in post

14:00 Trump posts rant on Easter morning… How can Evangelicals defend this?

15:00 After 3 weeks of threats, the Strait of Hormuz is still closed

15:45 Trump tries to jawbone markets on Sundays, but they might not be listening

16:30 If Trump walks away with Strait in Iranian control, he sets the world back

17:30 Energy expert Daniel Jurgen calls this worst energy disruption ever

19:00 Control of the strait gives Iran more power than having a nuke

19:45 The world economy is far more interconnected than during 70’s shocks

20:15 If the war stopped today, it’d take a year to get supply chains back to normal

21:15 Congress is doing nothing here, and they’ll pay the price at the ballot box

22:30 Republican Sen. John Curtis challenges the premise of the war

23:30 We have 3 weeks until 60 day War Powers clause kicks in

24:30 Curtis argued Vietnam started as small operation, then expanded

25:30 Trump threatens infrastructure, could be potential war crime

26:15 Hegseth doesn’t care about human rights or Geneva Convention

27:15 Trump has treated NATO allies terribly, doesn’t deserve their help

28:15 Trump is not a reliable ally to anyone, we’re here because of him

29:00 75 years of American leadership didn’t alienate allies like Trump

29:45 Congress needs to get off its ass and do its job

31:45 Trump issues executive order on college sports

33:30 Trump’s order is basically a list of suggestions/press release

34:30 Order says if schools abuse NIL, could ban them from federal grants

35:45 Courts have struck down basically every NCAA rule before them

37:00 White House wants to apply pressure on the big schools

38:30 Document is a wish list sent to NCAA, no enforcement mechanism

39:45 Administration is so unpopular, public won’t side with them on this order

41:00 Order will face all kinds of legal hurdles, only gives WH talking points

41:45 Trump has no controlling legal authority here

47:15 Mike Pesca joins the Chuck ToddCast

49:15 The emergence of the never Trump media

50:15 Both parties have become reactionary

51:30 Prior to the civil war, leaders just papered over the divides

52:30 Debate in both parties is full resistance vs. compromise

53:45 Virginia would go 8-3 Democrat without partisan redistricting

54:45 Competitive districts will create more reasonable candidates

57:00 Partisan primaries are the biggest driver of our hyperpartisanship

57:45 Mobile voting would be a game changer for voter participation

58:45 All-party primaries are a better alternative

1:00:30 Is there a viable path for independent candidates to win?

1:01:15 Dem brand is so toxic in Nebraska, only an independent can be viable

1:02:00 Ranked choice voting is further down the list of good reforms

1:02:45 Ranked choice makes explaining results difficult on election night

1:03:45 Louisiana had the best version of the jungle primary

1:04:45 Louisiana changed their system just to beat Bill Cassidy

1:06:00 If jungle primary in CA produces a Republican, reforms come in a year

1:07:00 One of the Democratic CA governor candidates has to go

1:08:15 Surprising how many big name candidates passed on CA gov race

1:09:15 Kash Patel might hand Eric Swalwell the nomination by leaking file

1:10:00 Gavin Newsom doesn’t have an heir apparent

1:11:15 With control of congress, should Dems try to pass legislation with Trump?

1:12:15 Child tax credit is something Dems & JD Vance could agree on

1:13:30 Democrats can’t be an alternative to “do nothing GOP”, then do nothing

1:14:45 Dems will do investigations, but not much else will get done

1:15:30 Trump officials won’t answer subpoenas, business leaders will have to

1:16:15 With power in congress, Democrats will likely target big tech

1:18:15 Surveillance pricing needs to be regulated

1:20:15 Bills in many legislatures to ban digital price tags in stores

1:21:00 There are upsides to dynamic pricing, it’s not all bad

1:22:00 Airlines using your data against you to gouge you is gross

1:22:45 Floating price based on supply vs. demand is fine

1:24:15 Being seen as being on the side of the consumer is good politics

1:25:15 Consumer advocacy gave news media credibility and trust

1:26:45 The public feels like big tech has too much control of everything

1:28:15 Creating a caucus of independents could be a fulcrum in the senate

1:29:30 Independents shouldn’t have to choose between Trump & Schumer

1:31:30 We are in desperate need of reform, and the constitution is difficult to amend

1:33:15 March Madness reminds you that the NBA regular season sucks

1:34:30 NBA players don’t try hard in the regular season & tanking is terrible

1:36:45 Long playoff series in the NBA are great

1:38:15 A shorter 1st round 5 game series injects some randomness into the playoffs

1:40:30 DC could be a great NBA market, but the Wizards are awful

1:42:15 NBA draft lottery needs some modification to address tanking

1:42:45 “Load management” also needs to be addressed

1:45:45 Urgency is what creates great competitive sports 

1:52:30 NCAA tournament shows why NBA has issues 

1:53:15 ToddCast Time Machine 

1:53:30 Many American wars started/ended this week in history 

1:54:45 We’re good at marking the beginning/end of wars, but not resolving them 

1:55:30 Appomattox was a clean ending to the Civil War 

1:56:15 The fighting stopped, but the argument for the war wasn’t resolved 

1:56:45 Birthright citizenship added via 14th amendment 

1:57:15 Citizenship rights were denied to black Americans 

1:58:15 U.S. formally entered WW1 

1:58:45 Hard to celebrate Armistice Day when WW2 happens 20 years later 

1:59:15 European powers drew new maps but didn’t settle claims & conflicts 

2:00:00 Middle East turmoil is direct result of Europeans redrawing maps 

2:01:00 Wars aren’t chapters…they are arguments 

2:02:00 The arguments of the Civil War & WW1 are still unresolved 

2:03:00 Ask Chuck 

2:03:15 What are your thoughts on ranked choice voting? 

2:09:30 Correction on the location of Stetson’s law school 

2:10:15 What current sports player or manager would do well in politics? 

2:16:00 Has Congress’s inaction over Trump’s Iran war created a precedent? 

2:19:30 Is relegation structurally possible in the NBA to avoid tanking? 

2:23:15 Sports reaction

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens with the harrowing story of two F-15 operators who went missing over Iran and had to be extracted by U.S. Special Forces — a dramatic rescue the administration is now using to obscure the larger failures of a war that is clearly not going well, starting with the fact that Defense Secretary Hegseth's description of "uncontested airspace" was demonstrably false and raises the most important question nobody in the Pentagon wants to answer: why did we need a rescue mission in the first place? He catalogs a weekend of Trump's unraveling: a Truth Social post telling Iran to "open the fuckin strait, you crazy bastards," a seemingly deliberate insult to Muslims with a sarcastic "praise be to allah" reference, and an unhinged Easter morning rant that Todd challenges Evangelicals to defend — all while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed after three weeks of empty threats, energy expert Daniel Yergin has called this the worst energy disruption in history, and control of the strait now gives Iran more leverage than a nuclear weapon ever would. Todd warns that the world economy is far more interconnected than during the 1970s oil shocks and that even if the war stopped today, it would take a year to restore supply chains to normal. He highlights Republican Senator John Curtis of Utah challenging the very premise of the war and drawing a direct parallel to Vietnam's gradual escalation, notes that Congress has just three weeks until the 60-day War Powers clause kicks in, and excoriates lawmakers for doing nothing while Trump threatens Iranian infrastructure in ways that could constitute war crimes under the Geneva Convention — a framework Pete Hegseth clearly doesn't care about. He closes with a quick dissection of Trump's executive order on college sports, which he dismisses as a glorified press release with no enforcement mechanism, no controlling legal authority, and zero chance of surviving legal challenges — just another document designed to generate talking points from an administration so unpopular the public won't even side with them on an issue where there's genuine bipartisan frustration.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the beginning and end of America’s participation in the Civil War & World War 1, and argues that the underlying disagreements of both conflicts have never been resolved. He also takes listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and weighs in on the latest in sports.

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.

Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

01:15 Check out Chuck’s sports podcast “Dynastic”!

04:30 Moderating debate “Is gambling is the new pornography?”

05:30 Trump silent after F-15 operator was missing in Iran

06:15 Fear was an American pilot captured by the regime

06:45 U.S. Special forces able to extract both F-15 operators

07:30 Success of rescue being used to obscure Trump’s failures

08:15 Hegseth’s description of “uncontested airspace” was false

09:00 Most important question… Why did we need rescue in the first place?

09:45 Things are not going well in this war

10:15 Hegseth has not been telling the public the truth

11:30 Congress would normally provide oversight, but they’ve been neutered

12:30 Trump posts “Open the fuckin strait, you crazy bastards”

13:30 Trump seemingly insults muslims with “Praise be to allah” in post

14:00 Trump posts rant on Easter morning… How can Evangelicals defend this?

15:00 After 3 weeks of threats, the Strait of Hormuz is still closed

15:45 Trump tries to jawbone markets on Sundays, but they might not be listening

16:30 If Trump walks away with Strait in Iranian control, he sets the world back

17:30 Energy expert Daniel Jurgen calls this worst energy disruption ever

19:00 Control of the strait gives Iran more power than having a nuke

19:45 The world economy is far more interconnected than during 70’s shocks

20:15 If the war stopped today, it’d take a year to get supply chains back to normal

21:15 Congress is doing nothing here, and they’ll pay the price at the ballot box

22:30 Republican Sen. John Curtis challenges the premise of the war

23:30 We have 3 weeks until 60 day War Powers clause kicks in

24:30 Curtis argued Vietnam started as small operation, then expanded

25:30 Trump threatens infrastructure, could be potential war crime

26:15 Hegseth doesn’t care about human rights or Geneva Convention

27:15 Trump has treated NATO allies terribly, doesn’t deserve their help

28:15 Trump is not a reliable ally to anyone, we’re here because of him

29:00 75 years of American leadership didn’t alienate allies like Trump

29:45 Congress needs to get off its ass and do its job

31:45 Trump issues executive order on college sports

33:30 Trump’s order is basically a list of suggestions/press release

34:30 Order says if schools abuse NIL, could ban them from federal grants

35:45 Courts have struck down basically every NCAA rule before them

37:00 White House wants to apply pressure on the big schools

38:30 Document is a wish list sent to NCAA, no enforcement mechanism

39:45 Administration is so unpopular, public won’t side with them on this order

41:00 Order will face all kinds of legal hurdles, only gives WH talking points

41:45 Trump has no controlling legal authority here

46:45 ToddCast Time Machine 

47:00 Many American wars started/ended this week in history 

48:15 We’re good at marking the beginning/end of wars, but not resolving them 

49:00 Appomattox was a clean ending to the Civil War 

49:45 The fighting stopped, but the argument for the war wasn’t resolved 

50:15 Birthright citizenship added via 14th amendment 

50:45 Citizenship rights were denied to black Americans 

51:45 U.S. formally entered WW1 

52:15 Hard to celebrate Armistice Day when WW2 happens 20 years later 

52:45 European powers drew new maps but didn’t settle claims & conflicts 

53:30 Middle East turmoil is direct result of Europeans redrawing maps 

54:30 Wars aren’t chapters…they are arguments 

55:30 The arguments of the Civil War & WW1 are still unresolved 

56:30 Ask Chuck 

56:45 What are your thoughts on ranked choice voting? 

1:03:00 Correction on the location of Stetson’s law school 

1:03:45 What current sports player or manager would do well in politics? 

1:09:30 Has Congress’s inaction over Trump’s Iran war created a precedent? 

1:13:00 Is relegation structurally possible in the NBA to avoid tanking? 

1:16:45 Sports reaction

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Mike Pesca — the veteran journalist, podcaster, and host of The Gist — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a wide-ranging conversation that covers everything from the structural reforms American democracy desperately needs to why the NBA regular season is unwatchable. They dig into the emergence of the "never Trump media" ecosystem and argue that both parties have become fundamentally reactionary, with internal debates in each reduced to full resistance versus compromise. They make the case that partisan primaries are the single biggest driver of hyperpartisanship, that competitive districts would produce more reasonable candidates and debate which reforms could actually break the cycle. They note that if California's jungle primary produces a Republican governor, Democrats will reform the system within a year, and that with so many big-name Democrats in the crowded field, at least one major candidate needs to drop out before they cannibalize each other.

The conversation shifts to what Democrats should do if they control Congress. Pesca argues that Democrats can't brand themselves as the alternative to the "do nothing GOP" and then do nothing themselves — a child tax credit expansion is something Democrats and JD Vance could theoretically agree on, and being seen as on the side of the consumer is both good policy and great politics. They zero in on surveillance pricing as the issue ripe for bipartisan action: airlines using your personal data to gouge you is gross and bills are already moving in state legislatures to ban digital price tags, though Chuck notes there are legitimate upsides to dynamic pricing based on supply and demand that shouldn't be thrown out with the bathwater. They discuss how consumer advocacy once gave news media enormous credibility and trust, how the public feels big tech has too much control over everything, and how creating a caucus of independents in the Senate could serve as a powerful fulcrum — since independent candidates shouldn't have to choose between Trump and Schumer to be effective. The episode closes with a surprisingly passionate sports segment where they agree that March Madness exposes how unwatchable the NBA regular season has become, that tanking and load management are destroying competitive integrity, and that urgency — the thing college basketball's single-elimination format delivers in abundance — is what creates truly great sports.

Timeline:

00:00 Mike Pesca joins the Chuck ToddCast

02:00 The emergence of the never Trump media

03:00 Both parties have become reactionary 

04:15 Prior to the civil war, leaders just papered over the divides

05:15 Debate in both parties is full resistance vs. compromise

06:30 Virginia would go 8-3 Democrat without partisan redistricting

07:30 Competitive districts will create more reasonable candidates

09:45 Partisan primaries are the biggest driver of our hyperpartisanship

10:30 Mobile voting would be a game changer for voter participation

11:30 All-party primaries are a better alternative

13:15 Is there a viable path for independent candidates to win?

14:00 Dem brand is so toxic in Nebraska, only an independent can be viable

14:45 Ranked choice voting is further down the list of good reforms

15:30 Ranked choice makes explaining results difficult on election night

16:30 Louisiana had the best version of the jungle primary

17:30 Louisiana changed their system just to beat Bill Cassidy

18:45 If jungle primary in CA produces a Republican, reforms come in a year

19:45 One of the Democratic CA governor candidates has to go

21:00 Surprising how many big name candidates passed on CA gov race

22:00 Kash Patel might hand Eric Swalwell the nomination by leaking file

22:45 Gavin Newsom doesn’t have an heir apparent 

24:00 With control of congress, should Dems try to pass legislation with Trump?

25:00 Child tax credit is something Dems & JD Vance could agree on

26:15 Democrats can’t be an alternative to “do nothing GOP”, then do nothing

27:30 Dems will do investigations, but not much else will get done

28:15 Trump officials won’t answer subpoenas, business leaders will have to

29:00 With power in congress, Democrats will likely target big tech

31:00 Surveillance pricing needs to be regulated

33:00 Bills in many legislatures to ban digital price tags in stores

33:45 There are upsides to dynamic pricing, it’s not all bad

34:45 Airlines using your data against you to gouge you is gross

35:30 Floating price based on supply vs. demand is fine

37:00 Being seen as being on the side of the consumer is good politics

38:00 Consumer advocacy gave news media credibility and trust

39:30 The public feels like big tech has too much control of everything

41:00 Creating a caucus of independents could be a fulcrum in the senate

42:15 Independents shouldn’t have to choose between Trump & Schumer

44:15 We are in desperate need of reform, and the constitution is difficult to amend

46:00 March Madness reminds you that the NBA regular season sucks

47:15 NBA players don’t try hard in the regular season & tanking is terrible

49:30 Long playoff series in the NBA are great

51:00 A shorter 1st round 5 game series injects some randomness into the playoffs

53:15 DC could be a great NBA market, but the Wizards are awful

55:00 NBA draft lottery needs some modification to address tanking

55:30 “Load management” also needs to be addressed

58:30 Urgency is what creates great competitive sports

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.

Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Mike Pesca joins the Chuck ToddCast

02:00 The emergence of the never Trump media

03:00 Both parties have become reactionary 

04:15 Prior to the civil war, leaders just papered over the divides

05:15 Debate in both parties is full resistance vs. compromise

06:30 Virginia would go 8-3 Democrat without partisan redistricting

07:30 Competitive districts will create more reasonable candidates

09:45 Partisan primaries are the biggest driver of our hyperpartisanship

10:30 Mobile voting would be a game changer for voter participation

11:30 All-party primaries are a better alternative

13:15 Is there a viable path for independent candidates to win?

14:00 Dem brand is so toxic in Nebraska, only an independent can be viable

14:45 Ranked choice voting is further down the list of good reforms

15:30 Ranked choice makes explaining results difficult on election night

16:30 Louisiana had the best version of the jungle primary

17:30 Louisiana changed their system just to beat Bill Cassidy

18:45 If jungle primary in CA produces a Republican, reforms come in a year

19:45 One of the Democratic CA governor candidates has to go

21:00 Surprising how many big name candidates passed on CA gov race

22:00 Kash Patel might hand Eric Swalwell the nomination by leaking file

22:45 Gavin Newsom doesn’t have an heir apparent 

24:00 With control of congress, should Dems try to pass legislation with Trump?

25:00 Child tax credit is something Dems & JD Vance could agree on

26:15 Democrats can’t be an alternative to “do nothing GOP”, then do nothing

27:30 Dems will do investigations, but not much else will get done

28:15 Trump officials won’t answer subpoenas, business leaders will have to

29:00 With power in congress, Democrats will likely target big tech

31:00 Surveillance pricing needs to be regulated

33:00 Bills in many legislatures to ban digital price tags in stores

33:45 There are upsides to dynamic pricing, it’s not all bad

34:45 Airlines using your data against you to gouge you is gross

35:30 Floating price based on supply vs. demand is fine

37:00 Being seen as being on the side of the consumer is good politics

38:00 Consumer advocacy gave news media credibility and trust

39:30 The public feels like big tech has too much control of everything

41:00 Creating a caucus of independents could be a fulcrum in the senate

42:15 Independents shouldn’t have to choose between Trump & Schumer

44:15 We are in desperate need of reform, and the constitution is difficult to amend

46:00 March Madness reminds you that the NBA regular season sucks

47:15 NBA players don’t try hard in the regular season & tanking is terrible

49:30 Long playoff series in the NBA are great

51:00 A shorter 1st round 5 game series injects some randomness into the playoffs

53:15 DC could be a great NBA market, but the Wizards are awful

55:00 NBA draft lottery needs some modification to address tanking

55:30 “Load management” also needs to be addressed

58:30 Urgency is what creates great competitive sports

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Eyck Freymann — Hoover Fellow at Stanford University and author of the new book Defending Taiwan: A Strategy to Prevent War with China — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a riveting conversation about the world's most dangerous geopolitical flashpoint at a moment when America is stretched dangerously thin by the Iran war. Freymann argues that the remainder of Trump's term represents a unique window of opportunity for Xi Jinping to move on Taiwan, not necessarily through a dramatic amphibious invasion — which Taiwan's geography makes incredibly difficult and which would result in the U.S. destroying China's navy and air force in a high-intensity conflict — but through coercion, quarantine, or political manipulation designed to change Taiwan's orientation without firing a shot. He explains that Taiwan is more than a strategic asset for China: it's a democratic success story that represents a shining alternative to CCP rule, making it the lynchpin of Xi's "national rejuvenation" project. Freymann unpacks Xi's recent purges of top military leaders as a sign that he now has full control of the PLA, notes that Western intelligence agencies have struggled to penetrate China's inner circle, and warns that Xi may issue direct threats to Taiwan during their 2028 election — a pattern of coercion that the U.S. must develop tools to deter.

The conversation turns to what a realistic defense strategy looks like — and what the Iran war is teaching Beijing in real time. Freymann pushes back on war games that show China winning, arguing they aren't a crystal ball and that the U.S. retains significant advantages in cyber warfare and conventional naval power. But he warns that China is more likely to pursue a "quarantine" rather than a full blockade — a semantic distinction with enormous legal and strategic implications, since a blockade would turn the entire world against China while a quarantine creates more ambiguity. He notes that China is carefully studying both Russia's failures in Ukraine and America's struggles in Iran to learn what not to do. His bottom line: in the best-case scenario, we're headed for another cold war — but China doesn't actually want to fight the United States because the risks are far too high, and the American public, already exhausted by Iran, has zero appetite for another conflict.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Eyck Freymann joins The Chuck ToddCast

02:00 What is the strategy for defending Taiwan?

02:45 The U.S. has a long-standing “One China” policy

03:45 The goal is to let the Taiwan situation get resolved peacefully

05:15 What’s the practical reason the Chinese want Taiwan so badly?

05:45 Taiwan is a democratic success story, shining alternative to CCP

06:45 Taiwan’s geography makes an invasion incredibly difficult

08:15 If China can take Taiwan, other dominoes in the region could fall

09:00 Taiwan is a “nice to have” not “need to have” for China

10:30 China’s project is “national rejuvenation”, Taiwan is lynchpin of that

12:00 U.S. stretched thin, best chance for China is while Trump is president?

13:15 Remainder of Trump’s term is unique opportunity for Xi

15:45 How should we read Xi’s purges of top military leaders?

17:15 Xi Jinping doesn’t give many interviews, remains an enigma

20:00 Western intelligence agencies have struggled to penetrate China

21:45 Xi is in full control of the PLA after the military purges

22:45 The last thing you want to be in CCP is the rumored successor to Xi

24:00 Xi may issue threats to Taiwan during their 2028 election

26:30 How does the U.S. deter coercion of Taiwan by China?

27:45 War games showing China wins more often are not a crystal ball for reality

28:30 A high intensity war would result in the U.S. destroying PLA navy & air force

29:15 U.S. has advantage over China in cyber warfare

30:45 U.S. can stabilize the situation by responding proportionally

32:00 China thinks they can win a PR war, change Taiwan politically in their favor

33:30 American public has no appetite for war, Iran war unpopular from Day 1

35:00 Could Taiwanese who want independence just flee the country?

37:15 Occupying Taipei would make Kabul & Mosul look like child’s play

38:15 A blockade of Taiwan is Plan B, not Plan A

39:30 A blockade would turn the entire world against China

40:15 China more likely to “quarantine” Taiwan than blockade

42:00 China has grown a middle class that will demand services & stability

43:30 China’s economic ties to other countries create their own deterrence

46:00 China is 1/3rd of world manufacturing, in every global supply chain

47:45 Some version of TPP is coming back because we don’t have a choice

49:30 In the best case scenario, we’re headed for another cold war

52:00 Invading via the Taiwan strait is incredibly difficult

53:00 Chinese military is untested, could they “test” somewhere else?

53:45 China is taking lessons from Russia in Ukraine & U.S. in Iran

55:00 China doesn’t want to fight the U.S. - It’s far too risky

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.

Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd reacts to the breaking news that Trump has fired Attorney General Pam Bondi — the second Cabinet member ousted in a month after Kristi Noem — and warns that what should alarm Americans isn't Bondi's departure but what comes next. He explains that like Jeff Sessions before her, Bondi apparently had lines she wouldn't cross: Trump grew frustrated that she hadn't prosecuted enough of his political enemies and was dissatisfied with her handling of the Epstein files. He traces Bondi's complicated history with Trump back to 2013, when she received fraud complaints against Trump University as Florida's attorney general, then dropped the investigation after a Trump PAC donated to her campaign — a transactional relationship that defined her entire arc. He argues that Trump doesn't believe in an independent justice system and never has, that he doesn't care about the law but only about loyalty, and that Bondi — a former Democrat who grew up in politics and was once a mostly by-the-book prosecutor in Tampa — has now destroyed her reputation with everyone by serving a president who discards people the moment they become inconvenient. With Trump's former personal criminal defense attorney Todd Blanche now installed as acting AG and Lee Zeldin reportedly under consideration as permanent replacement, Todd warns the DOJ could get far worse. He closes by turning to the Iran war's cascading energy crisis, which he says will be the worst the world has ever seen with Russia and China as the primary beneficiaries, and lays out the impossible bind: the U.S. will likely have to deploy ground troops to secure the Strait of Hormuz, but there will be disasters whether Trump commits those forces or simply walks away.

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment.

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.

Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

03:15 Trump fires Attorney General Pam Bondi

04:15 There were things Bondi wasn’t comfortable doing, like Jeff Sessions

05:30 Trump doesn’t believe in an independent justice system

06:30 Trump wants the DOJ to serve his own ends

07:45 Trump doesn’t care about the law, he cares about loyalty

09:00 Bondi used to be a Democrat, grew up in the world of politics

10:30 Bondi used to be a mostly by the book prosecutor in Tampa

12:00 In 2013, Bondi received fraud complaints against Trump University

12:30 Trump PAC donated to Bondi, the she dropped the lawsuit

13:15 Like Bill Barr, there were lines Bondi wouldn’t cross

14:15 Bondi has hurt her reputation with everyone by working for Trump

15:15 Bondi’s firing should concern everyone. DOJ could get far worse 

16:00 Energy crisis due to Iran will be the worst ever. Russia & China benefit

17:30 We’re going to have to use ground troops to secure Strait of Hormuz

18:15 There will be disasters if Trump just leaves, and disasters with ground troops

23:15 Ask Chuck

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd reacts to the breaking news that Trump has fired Attorney General Pam Bondi — the second Cabinet member ousted in a month after Kristi Noem — and warns that what should alarm Americans isn't Bondi's departure but what comes next. He explains that like Jeff Sessions before her, Bondi apparently had lines she wouldn't cross: Trump grew frustrated that she hadn't prosecuted enough of his political enemies and was dissatisfied with her handling of the Epstein files. He traces Bondi's complicated history with Trump back to 2013, when she received fraud complaints against Trump University as Florida's attorney general, then dropped the investigation after a Trump PAC donated to her campaign — a transactional relationship that defined her entire arc. He argues that Trump doesn't believe in an independent justice system and never has, that he doesn't care about the law but only about loyalty, and that Bondi — a former Democrat who grew up in politics and was once a mostly by-the-book prosecutor in Tampa — has now destroyed her reputation with everyone by serving a president who discards people the moment they become inconvenient. With Trump's former personal criminal defense attorney Todd Blanche now installed as acting AG and Lee Zeldin reportedly under consideration as permanent replacement, Todd warns the DOJ could get far worse. He closes by turning to the Iran war's cascading energy crisis, which he says will be the worst the world has ever seen with Russia and China as the primary beneficiaries, and lays out the impossible bind: the U.S. will likely have to deploy ground troops to secure the Strait of Hormuz, but there will be disasters whether Trump commits those forces or simply walks away.

Then, Eyck Freymann — Hoover Fellow at Stanford University and author of the new book Defending Taiwan: A Strategy to Prevent War with China — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a riveting conversation about the world's most dangerous geopolitical flashpoint at a moment when America is stretched dangerously thin by the Iran war. Freymann argues that the remainder of Trump's term represents a unique window of opportunity for Xi Jinping to move on Taiwan, not necessarily through a dramatic amphibious invasion — which Taiwan's geography makes incredibly difficult and which would result in the U.S. destroying China's navy and air force in a high-intensity conflict — but through coercion, quarantine, or political manipulation designed to change Taiwan's orientation without firing a shot. He explains that Taiwan is more than a strategic asset for China: it's a democratic success story that represents a shining alternative to CCP rule, making it the lynchpin of Xi's "national rejuvenation" project. Freymann unpacks Xi's recent purges of top military leaders as a sign that he now has full control of the PLA, notes that Western intelligence agencies have struggled to penetrate China's inner circle, and warns that Xi may issue direct threats to Taiwan during their 2028 election — a pattern of coercion that the U.S. must develop tools to deter.

The conversation turns to what a realistic defense strategy looks like — and what the Iran war is teaching Beijing in real time. Freymann pushes back on war games that show China winning, arguing they aren't a crystal ball and that the U.S. retains significant advantages in cyber warfare and conventional naval power. But he warns that China is more likely to pursue a "quarantine" rather than a full blockade — a semantic distinction with enormous legal and strategic implications, since a blockade would turn the entire world against China while a quarantine creates more ambiguity. He notes that China is carefully studying both Russia's failures in Ukraine and America's struggles in Iran to learn what not to do. His bottom line: in the best-case scenario, we're headed for another cold war — but China doesn't actually want to fight the United States because the risks are far too high, and the American public, already exhausted by Iran, has zero appetite for another conflict.

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment.

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.

Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

03:15 Trump fires Attorney General Pam Bondi

04:15 There were things Bondi wasn’t comfortable doing, like Jeff Sessions

05:30 Trump doesn’t believe in an independent justice system

06:30 Trump wants the DOJ to serve his own ends

07:45 Trump doesn’t care about the law, he cares about loyalty

09:00 Bondi used to be a Democrat, grew up in the world of politics

10:30 Bondi used to be a mostly by the book prosecutor in Tampa

12:00 In 2013, Bondi received fraud complaints against Trump University

12:30 Trump PAC donated to Bondi, the she dropped the lawsuit

13:15 Like Bill Barr, there were lines Bondi wouldn’t cross

14:15 Bondi has hurt her reputation with everyone by working for Trump

15:15 Bondi’s firing should concern everyone. DOJ could get far worse 

16:00 Energy crisis due to Iran will be the worst ever. Russia & China benefit

17:30 We’re going to have to use ground troops to secure Strait of Hormuz

18:15 There will be disasters if Trump just leaves, and disasters with ground troops

24:30 Eyck Freymann joins The Chuck ToddCast

26:30 What is the strategy for defending Taiwan?

27:15 The U.S. has a long-standing “One China” policy

28:15 The goal is to let the Taiwan situation get resolved peacefully

29:45 What’s the practical reason the Chinese want Taiwan so badly?

30:15 Taiwan is a democratic success story, shining alternative to CCP

31:15 Taiwan’s geography makes an invasion incredibly difficult

32:45 If China can take Taiwan, other dominoes in the region could fall

33:30 Taiwan is a “nice to have” not “need to have” for China

35:00 China’s project is “national rejuvenation”, Taiwan is lynchpin of that

36:30 U.S. stretched thin, best chance for China is while Trump is president?

37:45 Remainder of Trump’s term is unique opportunity for Xi

40:15 How should we read Xi’s purges of top military leaders?

41:45 Xi Jinping doesn’t give many interviews, remains an enigma

44:30 Western intelligence agencies have struggled to penetrate China

46:15 Xi is in full control of the PLA after the military purges

47:15 The last thing you want to be in CCP is the rumored successor to Xi

48:30 Xi may issue threats to Taiwan during their 2028 election

51:00 How does the U.S. deter coercion of Taiwan by China?

52:15 War games showing China wins more often are not a crystal ball for reality

53:00 A high intensity war would result in the U.S. destroying PLA navy & air force

53:45 U.S. has advantage over China in cyber warfare

55:15 U.S. can stabilize the situation by responding proportionally

56:30 China thinks they can win a PR war, change Taiwan politically in their favor

58:00 American public has no appetite for war, Iran war unpopular from Day 1

59:30 Could Taiwanese who want independence just flee the country?

1:01:45 Occupying Taipei would make Kabul & Mosul look like child’s play

1:02:45 A blockade of Taiwan is Plan B, not Plan A

1:04:00 A blockade would turn the entire world against China

1:04:45 China more likely to “quarantine” Taiwan than blockade

1:06:30 China has grown a middle class that will demand services & stability

1:08:00 China’s economic ties to other countries create their own deterrence

1:10:30 China is 1/3rd of world manufacturing, in every global supply chain

1:12:15 Some version of TPP is coming back because we don’t have a choice

1:14:00 In the best case scenario, we’re headed for another cold war

1:16:30 Invading via the Taiwan strait is incredibly difficult

1:17:30 Chinese military is untested, could they “test” somewhere else?

1:18:15 China is taking lessons from Russia in Ukraine & U.S. in Iran

1:19:30 China doesn’t want to fight the U.S. - It’s far too risky 

1:22:00 Ask Chuck

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd delivers a devastating week-by-week timeline of Trump's increasingly incoherent Iran war messaging that reads like a case study in presidential self-entrapment. He reports that military movements on the ground suggest escalation even as Trump's rhetoric promises de-escalation, that Defense Secretary Hegseth was allegedly looking into investments in defense stocks before the war began, that Pam Bondi's DOJ has been quietly dropping huge numbers of white-collar cases, and that in the middle of a war, Trump has proposed building a massive skyscraper Trump library in Miami — all while reports emerge that the president is simply getting bored with the conflict. He warns that the second and third-order effects of the war haven't landed yet but will hit hard in the next four to six weeks, that markets look calmer than they should given the geopolitical reality. He also flags that Trump's poll numbers are lower than ever and the political environment is so favorable for Democrats they should win both chambers without even needing redistricting help, and closes with the emergence of a new but manageable COVID variant dubbed "Cicada" — a reminder that we can no longer rely on HHS to provide normal, common-sense public health guidance when the country needs it most.

Then, Vanan Murugesan — executive director of Sahan Journal, Minnesota's only nonprofit newsroom dedicated to covering immigrants and communities of color — joins the Chuck Toddcast ahead of Local News Day on April 9th to discuss a dimension of the local news crisis that rarely gets attention: community news deserts. Murugesan explains that even in Minnesota — a state with relatively strong local news — immigrant stories were consistently missed or covered with biased narratives by mainstream outlets. He draws a vivid analogy: mainstream news organizations are like Target, offering broad coverage for a general audience, while immigrant outlets are specialty stores that reflect the specific realities of their communities. 

The conversation turns to the business of sustaining community journalism in a fractured media landscape. Murugesan argues that the ideal model is 50 to 70 percent reader-funded through a combination of subscribers and donors, noting that audience size isn't the ultimate goal — who the audience is can matter as much as how large it is. He explains that immigrant newsrooms actually have an advantage because they don't follow the conservative, cautious practices of legacy media — they're willing to experiment with video, social media, and syndication partnerships that allow them to overindex their audience relative to their size. They discuss why  local service journalism — helping people navigate schools, immigration processes, and government services — isn't always sexy but is incredibly useful, while insisting that the joyful parts of the immigrant experience need to be better covered alongside the hardship.

Finally Chuck updates his ToddCast Top 5 Republican senate seats most likely to turn blue in the midterm elections and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.

Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

02:15 Trump’s rhetoric over the war is confusing. Keeps saying it’s almost over

02:45 Military movements suggest we’re about to escalate the war

03:15 Trump is trying to balance the war with the markets

04:45 Week 1 Trump tried to project a sense of control, and says war will be short

05:30 In Week 2, Trump proposes something like a Marshall Plan for Iran

06:15 In Week 3, Trump promises that Iran is seeking a deal

07:00 Week 4, Trump proposes a pause on strikes to calm markets

07:45 Now Trump says talks are happening, but also issues threats to infrastructure

08:30 Trump’s social posts are frontrunning the Pentagon briefings

09:15 Trump knows he’s boxed himself in, put himself in impossible situation

10:30 Trump is clearly manipulating the markets with his social posts

11:45 Hegseth was allegedly looking into investments in defense stocks before war

13:30 Pam Bondi’s DOJ has been dropping huge numbers of white-collar cases

15:30 During a war, Trump proposes a huge skyscraper Trump library in Miami

17:15 Reports are that Trump is getting bored with the war

18:00 Trump’s poll numbers are lower than ever, Dems should win both houses

19:00 Political environment is so favorable for Dems, they don’t need redistricting

21:00 Markets look calmer than they should considering geopolitical concerns

22:00 2nd & 3rd effects of the war haven’t landed yet

23:30 The effects of the war are likely to hit hard in the next 4-6 weeks

24:30 Trump treated NATO allies terribly, then gets mad they won’t bail him out

25:30 If Trump walks away, he hands Iran more leverage of Strait of Hormuz

26:45 Eventually the markets & traders will have to accept reality

27:30 Trump cares most about his financial allies that pay him personally

29:30 The Gulf states thought they could manipulate Trump, but he’s erratic

30:15 Gulf states are probably having buyer’s remorse

31:30 War is accelerating green energy transition, China set to benefit most

32:45 War has strengthened Russia & China, weakened the United States

34:30 New but manageable COVID variant has emerged, the Cicada variant

36:00 We can’t rely on HHS to give us normal common sense health advice

42:00 Vanan Murugesan (Sahan Journal) joins the Chuck ToddCast

44:00 There are both local news deserts, and community news deserts

45:00 How would you describe the Sahan Journal and its mission?

46:00 Minnesota has great local news, but immigrant stories were missed

48:30 Immigrant media was created to reflect realities of their audience

50:30 Immigrants truly want to understand the place they’re living in

52:00 Mainstream outlets are like Target, immigrant outlets are specialty stores

54:00 How do you decide when a community needs a full time reporter?

55:00 Sahan publishes in English to serve all Minnesotans

57:00 Addressing immigrant issues can uplift the entire community

58:30 Why not publish in multiple languages? Is it a resource issue?

59:30 Sahan added a spanish language version

1:00:30 Insisted on using a spanish speaking human for translations

1:01:30 Digital tools allow for pretty good translation

1:04:30 What works about the nonprofit model? Could you see going for-profit?

1:05:30 Sustainability is the ultimate goal regardless of profit model

1:07:15 Generating revenue from subscribers + donors is the ideal model

1:08:45 Washington Post has become beholden to Jeff Bezos

1:10:45 Ideally, 50-70% reader funded is the business model

1:11:30 Audience size isn’t the ultimate panacea

1:12:30 Who the audience is can matter as much as the size of it

1:14:30 Craigslist destroyed the business model for local newspapers

1:17:00 Newsrooms tend to be conservative and cautious trying new models

1:20:30 Immigrant newsrooms due well to not follow national media practices

1:23:00 Media is fracturing, but the barrier to entry is getting lower

1:25:00 Able to overindex audience by using video & social media

1:26:00 Are you able to syndicate any of your work to other outlets?

1:27:30 Finding stories they can collaborate on with other outlets

1:28:30 Local service journalism isn’t always sexy but is incredibly useful

1:29:30 What type of service journalism do you produce?

1:30:45 The joyful part of the immigrant experience needs to be better covered

1:32:00 Trying to balance what the audience wants with what they need

1:33:45 Celebrating Local News Day on April 9th

1:34:15 Don’t forget Local News Day on April 9th!

1:35:00 ToddCast Top 5 Republican senate seats most likely to turn blue

1:36:30 The political environment for Republicans is terrible

1:37:30 May will be the month where we see if Republicans break with Trump

1:38:45 #1 North Carolina

1:40:15 #2 Maine

1:42:15 #3 Ohio

1:45:00 #4 Alaska

1:46:15 #5 Nebraska

1:52:00 Ask Chuck

1:52:15 What is going on with all the alien talk from government officials lately?

1:56:00 Is it possible to play by the old rules when both parties feel fight is existential?

1:59:30 Why don’t journalists more directly call out obvious lies? 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Vanan Murugesan — executive director of Sahan Journal, Minnesota's only nonprofit newsroom dedicated to covering immigrants and communities of color — joins the Chuck Toddcast ahead of Local News Day on April 9th to discuss a dimension of the local news crisis that rarely gets attention: community news deserts. Murugesan explains that even in Minnesota — a state with relatively strong local news — immigrant stories were consistently missed or covered with biased narratives by mainstream outlets. He draws a vivid analogy: mainstream news organizations are like Target, offering broad coverage for a general audience, while immigrant outlets are specialty stores that reflect the specific realities of their communities. 

The conversation turns to the business of sustaining community journalism in a fractured media landscape. Murugesan argues that the ideal model is 50 to 70 percent reader-funded through a combination of subscribers and donors, noting that audience size isn't the ultimate goal — who the audience is can matter as much as how large it is. He explains that immigrant newsrooms actually have an advantage because they don't follow the conservative, cautious practices of legacy media — they're willing to experiment with video, social media, and syndication partnerships that allow them to overindex their audience relative to their size. They discuss why  local service journalism — helping people navigate schools, immigration processes, and government services — isn't always sexy but is incredibly useful, while insisting that the joyful parts of the immigrant experience need to be better covered alongside the hardship.

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.

Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Vanan Murugesan (Sahan Journal) joins the Chuck ToddCast

02:00 There are both local news deserts, and community news deserts

03:00 How would you describe the Sahan Journal and its mission?

04:00 Minnesota has great local news, but immigrant stories were missed

06:30 Immigrant media was created to reflect realities of their audience

08:30 Immigrants truly want to understand the place they’re living in

10:00 Mainstream outlets are like Target, immigrant outlets are specialty stores

12:00 How do you decide when a community needs a full time reporter?

13:00 Sahan publishes in English to serve all Minnesotans 

15:00 Addressing immigrant issues can uplift the entire community

16:30 Why not publish in multiple languages? Is it a resource issue?

17:30 Sahan added a spanish language version

18:30 Insisted on using a spanish speaking human for translations

19:30 Digital tools allow for pretty good translation

22:30 What works about the nonprofit model? Could you see going for-profit?

23:30 Sustainability is the ultimate goal regardless of profit model

25:15 Generating revenue from subscribers + donors is the ideal model

26:45 Washington Post has become beholden to Jeff Bezos

28:45 Ideally, 50-70% reader funded is the business model

29:30 Audience size isn’t the ultimate panacea

30:30 Who the audience is can matter as much as the size of it

32:30 Craigslist destroyed the business model for local newspapers

35:00 Newsrooms tend to be conservative and cautious trying new models

38:30 Immigrant newsrooms due well to not follow national media practices

41:00 Media is fracturing, but the barrier to entry is getting lower

43:00 Able to overindex audience by using video & social media

44:00 Are you able to syndicate any of your work to other outlets?

45:30 Finding stories they can collaborate on with other outlets

46:30 Local service journalism isn’t always sexy but is incredibly useful

47:30 What type of service journalism do you produce?

48:45 The joyful part of the immigrant experience needs to be better covered

50:00 Trying to balance what the audience wants with what they need

51:45 Celebrating Local News Day on April 9th

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd delivers a devastating week-by-week timeline of Trump's increasingly incoherent Iran war messaging that reads like a case study in presidential self-entrapment. He reports that military movements on the ground suggest escalation even as Trump's rhetoric promises de-escalation, that Defense Secretary Hegseth was allegedly looking into investments in defense stocks before the war began, that Pam Bondi's DOJ has been quietly dropping huge numbers of white-collar cases, and that in the middle of a war, Trump has proposed building a massive skyscraper Trump library in Miami — all while reports emerge that the president is simply getting bored with the conflict. He warns that the second and third-order effects of the war haven't landed yet but will hit hard in the next four to six weeks, that markets look calmer than they should given the geopolitical reality. He also flags that Trump's poll numbers are lower than ever and the political environment is so favorable for Democrats they should win both chambers without even needing redistricting help, and closes with the emergence of a new but manageable COVID variant dubbed "Cicada" — a reminder that we can no longer rely on HHS to provide normal, common-sense public health guidance when the country needs it most.

Finally Chuck updates his ToddCast Top 5 Republican senate seats most likely to turn blue in the midterm elections and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.

Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

02:15 Trump’s rhetoric over the war is confusing. Keeps saying it’s almost over

02:45 Military movements suggest we’re about to escalate the war

03:15 Trump is trying to balance the war with the markets

04:45 Week 1 Trump tried to project a sense of control, and says war will be short

05:30 In Week 2, Trump proposes something like a Marshall Plan for Iran

06:15 In Week 3, Trump promises that Iran is seeking a deal

07:00 Week 4, Trump proposes a pause on strikes to calm markets

07:45 Now Trump says talks are happening, but also issues threats to infrastructure

08:30 Trump’s social posts are frontrunning the Pentagon briefings

09:15 Trump knows he’s boxed himself in, put himself in impossible situation

10:30 Trump is clearly manipulating the markets with his social posts

11:45 Hegseth was allegedly looking into investments in defense stocks before war

13:30 Pam Bondi’s DOJ has been dropping huge numbers of white-collar cases

15:30 During a war, Trump proposes a huge skyscraper Trump library in Miami

17:15 Reports are that Trump is getting bored with the war

18:00 Trump’s poll numbers are lower than ever, Dems should win both houses

19:00 Political environment is so favorable for Dems, they don’t need redistricting

21:00 Markets look calmer than they should considering geopolitical concerns

22:00 2nd & 3rd effects of the war haven’t landed yet

23:30 The effects of the war are likely to hit hard in the next 4-6 weeks

24:30 Trump treated NATO allies terribly, then gets mad they won’t bail him out

25:30 If Trump walks away, he hands Iran more leverage of Strait of Hormuz

26:45 Eventually the markets & traders will have to accept reality

27:30 Trump cares most about his financial allies that pay him personally

29:30 The Gulf states thought they could manipulate Trump, but he’s erratic

30:15 Gulf states are probably having buyer’s remorse

31:30 War is accelerating green energy transition, China set to benefit most

32:45 War has strengthened Russia & China, weakened the United States

34:30 New but manageable COVID variant has emerged, the Cicada variant

36:00 We can’t rely on HHS to give us normal common sense health advice

40:00 Don’t forget Local News Day on April 9th!

40:45 ToddCast Top 5 Republican senate seats most likely to turn blue

42:15 The political environment for Republicans is terrible

43:15 May will be the month where we see if Republicans break with Trump

44:30 #1 North Carolina

46:00 #2 Maine

48:00 #3 Ohio

50:45 #4 Alaska

52:00 #5 Nebraska

57:45 Ask Chuck

58:00 What is going on with all the alien talk from government officials lately?

1:01:45 Is it possible to play by the old rules when both parties feel fight is existential?

1:05:15 Why don’t journalists more directly call out obvious lies?  

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd asks the most uncomfortable question in American politics: is the country's current dysfunction a problem that can be resolved at the ballot box, or are we living through a pre-Civil War style pressure buildup where fundamental divisions keep getting papered over rather than addressed? He draws a striking parallel between today's hyperpartisan era — where both parties are simultaneously fighting each other and tearing themselves apart internally — and the post-Jackson period of American politics, when the country flipped back and forth between parties without ever resolving the underlying wound of slavery. He traces the arc from the Compromise of 1850, when Millard Fillmore believed he'd saved the republic, through the repeal of the Missouri Compromise that led to Bleeding Kansas, to James Buchanan handing Abraham Lincoln a country already on fire — and asks whether modern America can heal its divides without mass violence. He closes with Lincoln's insight that you couldn't solve the divide by managing it — but insists it doesn't have to take a hot civil war to resolve America's fractures, even if it increasingly feels like the country still isn't ready to do the hard work of actually turning the page.

Then, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan — the moderate Democrat, former tech entrepreneur, and Harvard-educated candidate for California governor — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a policy-dense conversation about what's wrong with California governance and how to fix it. Mahan argues that California has enormous resources but isn't delivering better results, and that the best form of resistance to Trumpism isn't performative opposition but good governance that actually improves people's lives. He walks through his record in San Jose — where he prioritized basic dignified shelter over expensive permanent housing and is now leading the state in reducing unsheltered homelessness — and makes the case that expensive housing is fundamentally a public policy failure driven by environmental review processes that needlessly slow construction. On AI, Mahan notes that Silicon Valley's libertarian tech culture has historically disengaged from civic life, but warns that AI is coming fast and California has both the responsibility and the opportunity to set guardrails that could become the national standard — particularly around transparency in government data use and serious law enforcement around data violations.

The conversation gets politically candid as they navigate the tensions within the Democratic Party. Mahan argues that California Democrats can't blame anyone else for the state's governance failures, that every year revenue goes up faster than population growth yet outcomes get worse, and that highly organized interest groups end up wielding a veto over meaningful change. He opposes the proposed California billionaire wealth tax — not because he's defending billionaires, he insists, but because taxing the ultra-wealthy needs to happen at the federal level to avoid driving companies out of state — and disagrees with Newsom's handling of Proposition 36, arguing the state should force people into either treatment or jail rather than allowing open drug markets. On California's jungle primary, Mahan dismisses concerns about two Republican candidates advancing as overblown, pushes back on the idea he should run as an independent, and contends that Democrats need to update their platform and make government actually work rather than relying on "resistance warrior" posturing. 

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the creation of NATO in 1949 and asks whether an alliance built on stability and values can survive a transactional president like Donald Trump, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.

Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code CHUCKTODDCAST at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/chucktoddcast

Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

01:00 Reaction to March Madness

03:15 Nats are 2-1! 

08:45 Trump orders TSA workers to be paid via executive order

09:45 Both parties are fighting each other, and also infighting

10:45 The house has the hardliners, the senate has the compromisers

11:15 Is the country ready to move on from dysfunction & hyperpartisanship?

13:30 For the 21st century, the country has flipped back & forth between parties

14:15 Similarities to the post-Jackson era of American politics

16:30 Problems and divisions were left unresolved

18:00 The wound over slavery was never healed, pressure kept building

19:00 Fillmore offered the compromise of 1850, thought he saved the republic

20:45 The Missouri Compromise was repealed, led to conflict in Kansas

22:30 Buchanon handed Lincoln a country already on fire

23:15 Can modern America heal its divides without mass violence?

24:15 8 million turned out for No Kings protests

25:45 CPAC was completely different universe compared to No Kings 

27:00 Trump’s poll numbers are tanking on multiple issues

27:45 Democrats brand is still worse than Republicans in polls

28:30 We don’t seem to have the leaders we need to turn the page

29:15 The economy is a mess and it’s almost entirely Trump’s fault

30:15 The GOP hasn’t finished its own internal reckoning

31:30 It feels like America still isn’t ready to turn the page yet

32:30 The two parties have two fundamentally different visions for America

35:00 Will 2026 be a paradigm shift, or yet another pendulum swing?

36:00 Lincoln understood you couldn’t solve the divide by managing it

39:00 It doesn’t have to take a hot civil war to solve America’s divides

47:00 Mayor Matt Mahan (San Jose) joins the Chuck ToddCast

48:30 What got you into politics and made you want to run for mayor?

50:30 What are the other Dems in the race missing that you can bring?

51:45 California has a lot of resources but isn’t delivering better results

53:00 San Jose become the place where Palo Alto workers actually live

54:30 Why has San Jose lacked a real urban center?

55:45 Tech sector is very libertarian & didn’t really engage the community

58:15 Concerns that AI is coming quickly & can do both good and harm

59:45 If California puts guardrails on AI, that could become national standard

1:01:00 Government has responsibility to be transparent about AI data use

1:02:30 California has to create framework for AI security, regulation & transparency

1:03:15 The unknown of AI has created fear amongst the American public

1:04:30 The lack of trust in AI is because social media has been such a negative

1:06:00 There needs to be serious law enforcement around data violations

1:07:15 Media literacy & critical thinking need to be taught in public schools

1:08:45 What are you getting right in tackling homelessness in San Jose?

1:09:45 Prioritized basic dignified shelter over expensive permanent housing

1:11:00 San Jose is leading California in solving homelessness

1:12:00 California hasn’t built enough shelter or treatment facilities

1:13:00 Expensive housing is a public policy failure

1:13:45 Why does environmental review have to slow down construction?

1:15:00 Environmental impacts go far beyond just clean air & water

1:15:45 Technology can drastically speed up environmental review

1:17:00 Infill construction permits should be approved/denied in 30 days

1:18:30 Are tenant protection laws sufficient to protect ADU renters?

1:20:00 22% of new housing built in San Jose is ADUs

1:20:30 Are taxes too high in California?

1:21:15 California has one of the most progressive tax structures in the country

1:21:45 Gas tax is one of California’s most regressive, EV owners need to pay

1:23:15 A per vehicle flat fee for both gas & EVs makes the most sense

1:25:00 Every year revenue goes up faster than population w/ worse outcomes

1:26:15 What has Newsom gotten right & wrong?

1:28:30 Disagreed with Newsom on Prop 36 & force either treatment or jail

1:29:30 Highly organized interests end up getting a veto over change

1:31:30 Best form of resistance to Trumpism is good governance

1:32:30 The math problem for Democrats in California’s jungle primary

1:33:15 The concern over two GOP candidates winning is overblown

1:36:15 Voters are skeptical of both parties, why not run as an independent?

1:38:00 Democrats need to update the party platform & make government work

1:39:30 Voters frustrated with Trump gravitate towards “resistance warriors”

1:41:00 California Democrats can’t blame anyone else for California’s governance

1:41:30 Better ways to make tax code fairer than proposed billionaire wealth tax

1:42:30 Taxing the ultra wealthy needs to be done at the federal level

1:43:15 Opposing CA wealth tax isn’t defending billionaires  

1:45:45 California’s governor race still shaping up

1:47:30 ToddCast Time Machine April 4th 1949

1:48:15 12 countries met to create the North Atlantic Treaty Organization

1:49:30 League of Nations didn’t have any binding enforcement mechanisms

1:50:30 Breakthrough came via the Vandenberg Resolution

1:51:30 Article 5 allowed constitutional discretion, made ratification possible

1:52:45 In 1955, West Germany was admitted, but it was uncomfortable

1:53:30 NATO has a simple purpose, deter the Soviet Union

1:54:00 NATO continued to grow eastward

1:56:15 Trump believes NATO should do whatever he wants them to

1:56:45 Trump has made NATO believe America’s help is conditional

1:57:45 Can an alliance built on certainty function in this era?

1:59:00 What happens to Ukraine portends whether NATO can survive

1:59:15 Ask Chuck

1:59:30 Why has job creation stopped being part of our political discourse?

2:03:30 What other points of leverage like the Strait of Hormuz exist in the world?

2:05:30 Trump conflates political asylum with insane asylums?

2:06:30 Democrats' problem less about leaders & instead poor messaging?

2:09:45 A 2/3rds vote in the senate as a check on the pardon power?

2:11:15 Will attorney John Morgan run for governor?

2:07:45 Thoughts of putting all parties on the same primary ballot?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan — the moderate Democrat, former tech entrepreneur, and Harvard-educated candidate for California governor — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a policy-dense conversation about what's wrong with California governance and how to fix it. Mahan argues that California has enormous resources but isn't delivering better results, and that the best form of resistance to Trumpism isn't performative opposition but good governance that actually improves people's lives. He walks through his record in San Jose — where he prioritized basic dignified shelter over expensive permanent housing and is now leading the state in reducing unsheltered homelessness — and makes the case that expensive housing is fundamentally a public policy failure driven by environmental review processes that needlessly slow construction. On AI, Mahan notes that Silicon Valley's libertarian tech culture has historically disengaged from civic life, but warns that AI is coming fast and California has both the responsibility and the opportunity to set guardrails that could become the national standard — particularly around transparency in government data use and serious law enforcement around data violations.

The conversation gets politically candid as they navigate the tensions within the Democratic Party. Mahan argues that California Democrats can't blame anyone else for the state's governance failures, that every year revenue goes up faster than population growth yet outcomes get worse, and that highly organized interest groups end up wielding a veto over meaningful change. He opposes the proposed California billionaire wealth tax — not because he's defending billionaires, he insists, but because taxing the ultra-wealthy needs to happen at the federal level to avoid driving companies out of state — and disagrees with Newsom's handling of Proposition 36, arguing the state should force people into either treatment or jail rather than allowing open drug markets. On California's jungle primary, Mahan dismisses concerns about two Republican candidates advancing as overblown, pushes back on the idea he should run as an independent, and contends that Democrats need to update their platform and make government actually work rather than relying on "resistance warrior" posturing. 

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.

Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code CHUCKTODDCAST at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/chucktoddcast

Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Mayor Matt Mahan joins the Chuck ToddCast

01:30 What got you into politics and made you want to run for mayor?

03:30 What are the other Dems in the race missing that you can bring?

04:45 California has a lot of resources but isn’t delivering better results

06:00 San Jose become the place where Palo Alto workers actually live

07:30 Why has San Jose lacked a real urban center?

08:45 Tech sector is very libertarian & didn’t really engage the community

11:15 Concerns that AI is coming quickly & can do both good and harm

12:45 If California puts guardrails on AI, that could become national standard

14:00 Government has responsibility to be transparent about AI data use

15:30 California has to create framework for AI security, regulation & transparency

16:15 The unknown of AI has created fear amongst the American public

17:30 The lack of trust in AI is because social media has been such a negative

19:00 There needs to be serious law enforcement around data violations

20:15 Media literacy & critical thinking need to be taught in public schools

21:45 What are you getting right in tackling homelessness in San Jose?

22:45 Prioritized basic dignified shelter over expensive permanent housing

24:00 San Jose is leading California in solving homelessness

25:00 California hasn’t built enough shelter or treatment facilities

26:00 Expensive housing is a public policy failure

26:45 Why does environmental review have to slow down construction?

28:00 Environmental impacts go far beyond just clean air & water

28:45 Technology can drastically speed up environmental review

30:00 Infill construction permits should be approved/denied in 30 days

31:30 Are tenant protection laws sufficient to protect ADU renters?

33:00 22% of new housing built in San Jose is ADUs

33:30 Are taxes too high in California?

34:15 California has one of the most progressive tax structures in the country

34:45 Gas tax is one of California’s most regressive, EV owners need to pay

36:15 A per vehicle flat fee for both gas & EVs makes the most sense

38:00 Every year revenue goes up faster than population w/ worse outcomes

39:15 What has Newsom gotten right & wrong?

41:30 Disagreed with Newsom on Prop 36 & force either treatment or jail

42:30 Highly organized interests end up getting a veto over change

44:30 Best form of resistance to Trumpism is good governance

45:30 The math problem for Democrats in California’s jungle primary

46:15 The concern over two GOP candidates winning is overblown

49:15 Voters are skeptical of both parties, why not run as an independent?

51:00 Democrats need to update the party platform & make government work

52:30 Voters frustrated with Trump gravitate towards “resistance warriors”

54:00 California Democrats can’t blame anyone else for California’s governance

54:30 Better ways to make tax code fairer than proposed billionaire wealth tax

55:30 Taxing the ultra wealthy needs to be done at the federal level

56:15 Opposing CA wealth tax isn’t defending billionaires

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd asks the most uncomfortable question in American politics: is the country's current dysfunction a problem that can be resolved at the ballot box, or are we living through a pre-Civil War style pressure buildup where fundamental divisions keep getting papered over rather than addressed? He draws a striking parallel between today's hyperpartisan era — where both parties are simultaneously fighting each other and tearing themselves apart internally — and the post-Jackson period of American politics, when the country flipped back and forth between parties without ever resolving the underlying wound of slavery. He traces the arc from the Compromise of 1850, when Millard Fillmore believed he'd saved the republic, through the repeal of the Missouri Compromise that led to Bleeding Kansas, to James Buchanan handing Abraham Lincoln a country already on fire — and asks whether modern America can heal its divides without mass violence. He closes with Lincoln's insight that you couldn't solve the divide by managing it — but insists it doesn't have to take a hot civil war to resolve America's fractures, even if it increasingly feels like the country still isn't ready to do the hard work of actually turning the page.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the creation of NATO in 1949 and asks whether an alliance built on stability and values can survive a transactional president like Donald Trump, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.

Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code CHUCKTODDCAST at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/chucktoddcast

Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

01:00 Reaction to March Madness

03:15 Nats are 2-1! 

6:45 Trump orders TSA workers to be paid via executive order 

7:45 Both parties are fighting each other, and also infighting 

8:45 The house has the hardliners, the senate has the compromisers 

9:15 Is the country ready to move on from dysfunction & hyperpartisanship? 

11:30 For the 21st century, the country has flipped back & forth between parties 

12:15 Similarities to the post-Jackson era of American politics 

14:30 Problems and divisions were left unresolved 

16:00 The wound over slavery was never healed, pressure kept building 

17:00 Fillmore offered the compromise of 1850, thought he saved the republic 

18:45 The Missouri Compromise was repealed, led to conflict in Kansas 

20:30 Buchanon handed Lincoln a country already on fire 

21:15 Can modern America heal its divides without mass violence? 

22:15 8 million turned out for No Kings protests 

23:45 CPAC was completely different universe compared to No Kings 

25:00 Trump’s poll numbers are tanking on multiple issues 

25:45 Democrats brand is still worse than Republicans in polls 

26:30 We don’t seem to have the leaders we need to turn the page 

27:15 The economy is a mess and it’s almost entirely Trump’s fault 

28:15 The GOP hasn’t finished its own internal reckoning 

29:30 It feels like America still isn’t ready to turn the page yet 

30:30 The two parties have two fundamentally different visions for America 

33:00 Will 2026 be a paradigm shift, or yet another pendulum swing? 

34:00 Lincoln understood you couldn’t solve the divide by managing it 

37:00 It doesn’t have to take a hot civil war to solve America’s divides

42:30 California’s governor race still shaping up

44:15 ToddCast Time Machine April 4th 1949

45:00 12 countries met to create the North Atlantic Treaty Organization

46:15 League of Nations didn’t have any binding enforcement mechanisms

47:15 Breakthrough came via the Vandenberg Resolution

48:15 Article 5 allowed constitutional discretion, made ratification possible

49:30 In 1955, West Germany was admitted, but it was uncomfortable

50:15 NATO has a simple purpose, deter the Soviet Union

50:45 NATO continued to grow eastward

53:00 Trump believes NATO should do whatever he wants them to

53:30 Trump has made NATO believe America’s help is conditional

54:30 Can an alliance built on certainty function in this era?

55:45 What happens to Ukraine portends whether NATO can survive

56:00 Ask Chuck

56:15 Why has job creation stopped being part of our political discourse?

1:00:15 What other points of leverage like the Strait of Hormuz exist in the world?

1:02:15 Trump conflates political asylum with insane asylums?

1:03:15 Democrats' problem less about leaders & instead poor messaging?

1:06:30 A 2/3rds vote in the senate as a check on the pardon power?

1:08:00 Will attorney John Morgan run for governor?

1:04:30 Thoughts of putting all parties on the same primary ballot?  

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Maryland Congressman Johnny Olszewski — the author of the Pardon Integrity Act, a proposed constitutional amendment that would give Congress the power to reject presidential pardons with a two-thirds supermajority vote — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a frank conversation about fixing a broken democracy and what Democrats should prioritize if they retake the House. Olszewski argues that the presidential pardon is the biggest loophole between democracy and autocracy, a power straight out of a monarchy that the founders failed to adequately check, and notes that Congress actually tried to curb pardon authority after Nixon but the effort stalled. His amendment, which is structured like a veto override and has already attracted Republican co-sponsor Don Bacon, would allow 20 House members and five senators to initiate a review process with 60 days to nullify a pardon. Olszewski is careful to spread the blame across parties — calling Trump's 1,600 pardons in 2025 alone "exceptionally egregious" but acknowledges that Biden’s preemptive pardons were a bad thing — and says nobody in Congress actually thinks the proposal is a bad idea.

The conversation broadens into a sobering assessment of congressional dysfunction and the state of American democracy. Olszewski describes the current Congress as one of the least productive ever, with both parties proposing unpassable messaging bills rather than legislating, and warns that partisan redistricting combined with partisan primaries creates a vicious cycle where the Republicans most willing to compromise are the ones most likely to lose their primaries. On Democratic strategy, Olszewski argues that if impeachable offenses exist they should be pursued but the party must focus on voters' needs, that Hakeem Jeffries should center his speakership on affordability if Democrats retake the House, and that Congress needs to come together to ban bipartisan gerrymandering. He insists that repairing democracy transcends partisan politics — the country needs people to believe in the institution of Congress again, and that requires restraints not just on this president but on all future ones.

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.

Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code CHUCKTODDCAST at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/chucktoddcast

Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Rep. Johnny Olszewski joins the Chuck ToddCast

01:15 Pardon clause is biggest loophole between democracy & autocracy

03:00 Do you have more Republicans on board with the pardon amendment?

03:45 Pardon amendment is structured like a veto override

04:15 Trump’s pardons are exceptionally egregious

04:45 Biden’s preemptive pardons for family members were also terrible

06:30 Pardon power is a loophole right out of a monarchy

07:30 Congress wanted to curb pardon power after Nixon, but it stalled

09:15 We need people to believe in the institution of congress again

10:30 Should a pardon board be created similar to those at the state level?

12:30 What’s the strategy for getting the pardon amendment passed?

13:15 Nobody in congress thinks the proposal is a bad idea

15:30 We haven’t passed a meaningful amendment since JFK assassination

16:15 Repairing the democracy transcends partisan politics

17:30 What should Democrats prioritize if they retake the house majority?

18:15 If impeachable offenses exist, pursue them, but focus on voters’ needs

20:30 The current congress is one of the least productive ever

23:00 Both parties propose unpassable messaging bills

24:45 The minority is rarely treated well by the majority

27:00 Democrats can compromise on policy but not core values

28:00 Depending on the members, there may be space for compromise

28:30 R’s willing to compromise are most likely to lose their primary

29:15 Partisan redistricting + partisan elections leads to bad outcomes

32:30 Seriously concerned about certification of the 2028 election

33:30 Worried that Speaker Johnson will mess with the 2026 result?

36:00 Government has resources to make lives better if not for partisanship

38:30 Congress has passed almost no meaningful legislation

40:45 Congress needs to come together and ban bipartisan gerrymandering

43:00 No appetite in congress for uncapping size of house, talk of rank choice voting

44:15 If Hakeem Jeffries becomes speaker, he needs to focus on affordability

45:15 The numbers aren’t there to advance an impeachment inquiry

47:00 We need restraints on this president and future presidents

47:30 Thoughts on Wes Moore running for president?

48:30 What’s “electability” going to mean in 2028?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd reveals that Trump's planned visit to Beijing on May 14th and 15th may function as a de facto deadline for wrapping up the Iran war, noting that Trump wants to end the conflict more than the Iranian regime does — a devastating negotiating position — and that his own voters are being hit hardest by soaring gas prices since they drive more than the average American, while lawmakers in compact D.C. remain insulated from the pain. He unpacks the Gulf states' precarious calculus: the Saudis and Emiratis are terrified Trump will retreat and leave Iran with leverage, knowing that once the U.S. leaves the region it isn't coming back anytime soon, but they also have significant business leverage over Trump and his family that complicates every decision. He then pivots to what should be a triumphant moment for Democrats — they've flipped 30 Republican seats since Trump took office without losing a single one, won two government shutdowns, and are operating in the best political climate in years — but finds a party that feels leaderless, with Chuck Schumer at the center of the dysfunction. He reports that some Senate Democrats want Schumer to step aside, that he's become paranoid about leaks and tells different caucus members what they want to hear (a tactic known internally as "getting Schumed"), He closes with a sharp critique of Democrats in Virginia who are advocating for indefensible partisan redistricting — arguing that the Democratic brand still has lower favorability than both the GOP and MAGA brands, that the Democratic base is smaller than the Republican base and therefore needs moderates to win, and that deploying the same gerrymandering tactics they claim to oppose is exactly the kind of hypocrisy that keeps voters from trusting the party.

Then, Maryland Congressman Johnny Olszewski — the author of the Pardon Integrity Act, a proposed constitutional amendment that would give Congress the power to reject presidential pardons with a two-thirds supermajority vote — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a frank conversation about fixing a broken democracy and what Democrats should prioritize if they retake the House. Olszewski argues that the presidential pardon is the biggest loophole between democracy and autocracy, a power straight out of a monarchy that the founders failed to adequately check, and notes that Congress actually tried to curb pardon authority after Nixon but the effort stalled. His amendment, which is structured like a veto override and has already attracted Republican co-sponsor Don Bacon, would allow 20 House members and five senators to initiate a review process with 60 days to nullify a pardon. Olszewski is careful to spread the blame across parties — calling Trump's 1,600 pardons in 2025 alone "exceptionally egregious" but acknowledges that Biden’s preemptive pardons were a bad thing — and says nobody in Congress actually thinks the proposal is a bad idea.

The conversation broadens into a sobering assessment of congressional dysfunction and the state of American democracy. Olszewski describes the current Congress as one of the least productive ever, with both parties proposing unpassable messaging bills rather than legislating, and warns that partisan redistricting combined with partisan primaries creates a vicious cycle where the Republicans most willing to compromise are the ones most likely to lose their primaries. On Democratic strategy, Olszewski argues that if impeachable offenses exist they should be pursued but the party must focus on voters' needs, that Hakeem Jeffries should center his speakership on affordability if Democrats retake the House, and that Congress needs to come together to ban bipartisan gerrymandering. He insists that repairing democracy transcends partisan politics — the country needs people to believe in the institution of Congress again, and that requires restraints not just on this president but on all future ones.

Finally, Chuck proposes a major change to the NCAA basketball tournament… an expanded, 96 team playoff that would benefit both athletics and academics, celebrates the start of the MLB season, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.

Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code CHUCKTODDCAST at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/chucktoddcast

Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

3:00 We may have a new deadline for Trump to wrap up the Iran war

3:30 Trump to visit Beijing on May 14th & 15th

4:45 Trump wants to end the war more than the Iranian regime

6:15 Trump voters drive more, gas prices will impact them more

7:30 Lawmakers are insulated from gas prices since D.C. is compact

8:45 Saudis and Emirates afraid Trump will retreat & leave Iran with leverage

9:45 Gulf states know that once the U.S. leaves they aren’t coming back soon

11:15 Saudis and Emirates have business leverage over Trump & his family

12:00 Trump will have to weigh business vs. political interests

13:00 Ground forces still being deployed to the region

14:00 Democrats in great political climate, but party feels rudderless & leaderless

14:45 Dems have flipped 30 Republican seats since Trump took office, lost none

15:30 Democrats have ushered in two government shutdowns & winning both

17:00 ICE’s abuses drove Dems to shutdown, the public largely supports them

17:45 Deploying ICE to airports is a dumb political move by Trump

19:15 Markwayne Mullin seems open to getting rid of ICE masking

21:15 The traveling public needs to be insulated from these political fights

22:30 Democrats should make the deal, but Chuck Schumer struggling to lead

23:15 Senate Democrats want Schumer to step aside as leader

26:00 Brian Schatz could be potential replacement, but expressed support for Schumer

28:30 Many longtime establishment senators have rallied behind Schumer

29:30 Schumer seems paranoid of leaks, and doesn’t share enough information

31:00 Confusion between senate Dems over whether there was deal to end shutdown

32:15 Schumer trying to appease everyone, telling them what they want to hear

33:00 The tactic is known as “Getting Schumed”

35:00 Schumer seems to have lost his fastball & is always looking over his shoulder

36:15 Schumer has become the stand-in for the establishment

37:45 Schumer can’t be seen as fighting the progressives and losing

40:00 Abigail Spanberger didn’t run as a partisan, forced into partisan redistricting

41:45 Partisan redistricting results in the election of partisan hacks

44:45 Dem base is smaller than GOP base, Dems need to win moderates

45:45 Dems in Virginia are advocating for indefensible partisan redistricting

46:45 Democratic brand still has lower favorability than GOP & MAGA  

53:00 Chuck’s proposal for the NCAA basketball tournament

54:15 Big East is closer to the A10 than the other power conferences

55:15 People say they love cinderellas in the Final Four, then don’t watch

56:30 Applications surge to mid-majors that advanced far in tournament

58:30 Schools were able to get higher quality students & faculty

59:00 Success in athletics leads to success in academics

59:30 Expand the tournament to 96 teams

1:00:45 96 teams is still less than 1/3rd of potential schools

1:02:15 Expanded tournament would be a net positive for higher education

1:03:45 Four regions, 24 teams per region - 2 teams seeded 9-16

1:06:30 You get more basketball, and a better chance for midmajors

1:08:45 Everybody would make more money, & it’d be more fan friendly

1:11:00 The best teams would still advance

1:13:30 It’s opening day in Major League Baseball

1:15:30 Most intriguing MLB teams

1:18:45 MLB dark horses

1:20:00 Ask Chuck

1:20:15 Why didn’t you include 1858 Lincoln v Douglas in Top 5 Illinois campaigns?

1:22:15 If we don’t get oil from the Strait of Hormuz, why have our gas prices gone up?

1:24:00 How can we rebalance focus from national to local politics?

1:29:30 Was Kristi Noem’s DHS PR campaign in service of a presidential run?

1:33:00 Do you think Trump will invade Iran with boots on the ground?

1:35:45 Who is advising the president on potential outcomes, intel seems degraded?

1:42:45 Could Democrats benefit from putting forward a “contract with America”

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd reveals that Trump's planned visit to Beijing on May 14th and 15th may function as a de facto deadline for wrapping up the Iran war, noting that Trump wants to end the conflict more than the Iranian regime does — a devastating negotiating position — and that his own voters are being hit hardest by soaring gas prices since they drive more than the average American, while lawmakers in compact D.C. remain insulated from the pain. He unpacks the Gulf states' precarious calculus: the Saudis and Emiratis are terrified Trump will retreat and leave Iran with leverage, knowing that once the U.S. leaves the region it isn't coming back anytime soon, but they also have significant business leverage over Trump and his family that complicates every decision. He then pivots to what should be a triumphant moment for Democrats — they've flipped 30 Republican seats since Trump took office without losing a single one, won two government shutdowns, and are operating in the best political climate in years — but finds a party that feels leaderless, with Chuck Schumer at the center of the dysfunction. He reports that some Senate Democrats want Schumer to step aside, that he's become paranoid about leaks and tells different caucus members what they want to hear (a tactic known internally as "getting Schumed"), He closes with a sharp critique of Democrats in Virginia who are advocating for indefensible partisan redistricting — arguing that the Democratic brand still has lower favorability than both the GOP and MAGA brands, that the Democratic base is smaller than the Republican base and therefore needs moderates to win, and that deploying the same gerrymandering tactics they claim to oppose is exactly the kind of hypocrisy that keeps voters from trusting the party.

Then, Maryland Congressman Johnny Olszewski — the author of the Pardon Integrity Act, a proposed constitutional amendment that would give Congress the power to reject presidential pardons with a two-thirds supermajority vote — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a frank conversation about fixing a broken democracy and what Democrats should prioritize if they retake the House. Olszewski argues that the presidential pardon is the biggest loophole between democracy and autocracy, a power straight out of a monarchy that the founders failed to adequately check, and notes that Congress actually tried to curb pardon authority after Nixon but the effort stalled. His amendment, which is structured like a veto override and has already attracted Republican co-sponsor Don Bacon, would allow 20 House members and five senators to initiate a review process with 60 days to nullify a pardon. Olszewski is careful to spread the blame across parties — calling Trump's 1,600 pardons in 2025 alone "exceptionally egregious" but acknowledges that Biden’s preemptive pardons were a bad thing — and says nobody in Congress actually thinks the proposal is a bad idea.

The conversation broadens into a sobering assessment of congressional dysfunction and the state of American democracy. Olszewski describes the current Congress as one of the least productive ever, with both parties proposing unpassable messaging bills rather than legislating, and warns that partisan redistricting combined with partisan primaries creates a vicious cycle where the Republicans most willing to compromise are the ones most likely to lose their primaries. On Democratic strategy, Olszewski argues that if impeachable offenses exist they should be pursued but the party must focus on voters' needs, that Hakeem Jeffries should center his speakership on affordability if Democrats retake the House, and that Congress needs to come together to ban bipartisan gerrymandering. He insists that repairing democracy transcends partisan politics — the country needs people to believe in the institution of Congress again, and that requires restraints not just on this president but on all future ones.

Finally, Chuck proposes a major change to the NCAA basketball tournament… an expanded, 96 team playoff that would benefit both athletics and academics, celebrates the start of the MLB season, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.

Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code CHUCKTODDCAST at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/chucktoddcast

Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

07:30 We may have a new deadline for Trump to wrap up the Iran war

08:00 Trump to visit Beijing on May 14th & 15th

09:15 Trump wants to end the war more than the Iranian regime

10:45 Trump voters drive more, gas prices will impact them more

12:00 Lawmakers are insulated from gas prices since D.C. is compact

13:15 Saudis and Emirates afraid Trump will retreat & leave Iran with leverage

14:15 Gulf states know that once the U.S. leaves they aren’t coming back soon

15:45 Saudis and Emirates have business leverage over Trump & his family

16:30 Trump will have to weigh business vs. political interests

17:30 Ground forces still being deployed to the region

18:30 Democrats in great political climate, but party feels rudderless & leaderless

19:15 Dems have flipped 30 Republican seats since Trump took office, lost none

20:00 Democrats have ushered in two government shutdowns & winning both

21:30 ICE’s abuses drove Dems to shutdown, the public largely supports them 

22:15 Deploying ICE to airports is a dumb political move by Trump

23:45 Markwayne Mullin seems open to getting rid of ICE masking

25:45 The traveling public needs to be insulated from these political fights

27:00 Democrats should make the deal, but Chuck Schumer struggling to lead

27:45 Senate Democrats want Schumer to step aside as leader

30:30 Brian Schatz could be potential replacement, but expressed support for Schumer

33:00 Many longtime establishment senators have rallied behind Schumer

34:00 Schumer seems paranoid of leaks, and doesn’t share enough information

35:30 Confusion between senate Dems over whether there was deal to end shutdown

36:45 Schumer trying to appease everyone, telling them what they want to hear

37:30 The tactic is known as “Getting Schumed”

39:30 Schumer seems to have lost his fastball & is always looking over his shoulder

40:45 Schumer has become the stand-in for the establishment

42:15 Schumer can’t be seen as fighting the progressives and losing

44:30 Abigail Spanberger didn’t run as a partisan, forced into partisan redistricting

46:15 Partisan redistricting results in the election of partisan hacks

49:15 Dem base is smaller than GOP base, Dems need to win moderates

50:15 Dems in Virginia are advocating for indefensible partisan redistricting

51:15 Democratic brand still has lower favorability than GOP & MAGA

57:30 Rep. Johnny Olszewski joins the Chuck ToddCast

58:45 Pardon clause is biggest loophole between democracy & autocracy

1:00:30 Do you have more Republicans on board with the pardon amendment?

1:01:15 Pardon amendment is structured like a veto override

1:01:45 Trump’s pardons are exceptionally egregious

1:02:15 Biden’s preemptive pardons for family members were also terrible

1:04:00 Pardon power is a loophole right out of a monarchy

1:05:00 Congress wanted to curb pardon power after Nixon, but it stalled

1:06:45 We need people to believe in the institution of congress again

1:08:00 Should a pardon board be created similar to those at the state level?

1:10:00 What’s the strategy for getting the pardon amendment passed?

1:10:45 Nobody in congress thinks the proposal is a bad idea

1:13:00 We haven’t passed a meaningful amendment since JFK assassination

1:13:45 Repairing the democracy transcends partisan politics

1:15:00 What should Democrats prioritize if they retake the house majority?

1:15:45 If impeachable offenses exist, pursue them, but focus on voters’ needs

1:18:00 The current congress is one of the least productive ever

1:20:30 Both parties propose unpassable messaging bills

1:22:15 The minority is rarely treated well by the majority

1:24:30 Democrats can compromise on policy but not core values

1:25:30 Depending on the members, there may be space for compromise

1:26:00 R’s willing to compromise are most likely to lose their primary

1:26:45 Partisan redistricting + partisan elections leads to bad outcomes

1:30:00 Seriously concerned about certification of the 2028 election

1:31:00 Worried that Speaker Johnson will mess with the 2026 result?

1:33:30 Government has resources to make lives better if not for partisanship

1:36:00 Congress has passed almost no meaningful legislation

1:38:15 Congress needs to come together and ban bipartisan gerrymandering

1:40:30 No appetite in congress for uncapping size of house, talk of rank choice voting

1:41:45 If Hakeem Jeffries becomes speaker, he needs to focus on affordability

1:42:45 The numbers aren’t there to advance an impeachment inquiry

1:44:30 We need restraints on this president and future presidents

1:45:00 Thoughts on Wes Moore running for president?

1:46:00 What’s “electability” going to mean in 2028?  

1:50:00 Chuck’s proposal for the NCAA basketball tournament

1:51:15 Big East is closer to the A10 than the other power conferences

1:52:15 People say they love cinderellas in the Final Four, then don’t watch

1:53:30 Applications surge to mid-majors that advanced far in tournament

1:55:30 Schools were able to get higher quality students & faculty

1:56:00 Success in athletics leads to success in academics

1:56:30 Expand the tournament to 96 teams

1:57:45 96 teams is still less than 1/3rd of potential schools

1:59:15 Expanded tournament would be a net positive for higher education

2:00:45 Four regions, 24 teams per region - 2 teams seeded 9-16

2:03:30 You get more basketball, and a better chance for midmajors

2:05:45 Everybody would make more money, & it’d be more fan friendly

2:08:00 The best teams would still advance

2:10:30 It’s opening day in Major League Baseball

2:12:30 Most intriguing MLB teams

2:15:45 MLB dark horses

2:17:00 Ask Chuck

2:17:15 Why didn’t you include 1858 Lincoln v Douglas in Top 5 Illinois campaigns?

2:19:15 If we don’t get oil from the Strait of Hormuz, why have our gas prices gone up?

2:21:00 How can we rebalance focus from national to local politics?

2:26:30 Was Kristi Noem’s DHS PR campaign in service of a presidential run?

2:30:00 Do you think Trump will invade Iran with boots on the ground?

2:32:45 Who is advising the president on potential outcomes, intel seems degraded?

2:39:45 Could Democrats benefit from putting forward a “contract with America” 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Warwick Sabin — president and CEO of Deep South Today, the nonprofit news network that includes the Pulitzer Prize-winning Mississippi Today, New Orleans' Verite News, and Lafayette's The Current — joins the Chuck Toddcast to discuss what may be the most promising model for saving local journalism in America. Sabin, a former three-term Arkansas state legislator and publisher of the Oxford American magazine, explains how he's building a network of nonprofit newsrooms across the Deep South from scratch, starting with Mississippi Today — the first nonprofit newsroom in Mississippi, now the largest in the state — and expanding into Louisiana and soon Arkansas. He describes the wholesale implosion of the old newspaper model, using the Jackson Clarion-Ledger's decline as a case study, and argues that the nonprofit approach has a critical advantage: starting fresh means avoiding the crushing legacy costs that buried traditional papers, and all revenue gets reinvested directly into the news product. They make the case that service journalism — covering schools, local government, youth sports — is what creates the trust and audience that makes the "sexy" investigative work possible, pointing to the fact that local journalists in his network helped exonerate a man on death row in Mississippi.

The conversation turns to what makes local journalism viable and essential in 2026 and beyond. Sabin argues that human connection to journalists will be the defining differentiator in the age of AI — people won't trust reporters who aren't part of their local community — while acknowledging that AI tools can make reporting dramatically more efficient. He discusses using local and youth sports as a community bonding agent in an era where it's one of the few areas where communities can avoid politics, notes that Mississippi produces terrific writers who need platforms, and emphasizes that having video and audio components is now critical for any news operation. They explore the potential for rebuilding a national network of nonprofit newspapers, discuss which communities are ripe for expansion and make the case that local journalism should be treated as a civic institution deserving of public-private partnership. Sabin's model is free to access, civic-minded, and designed to help citizens survive and thrive in their communities — exactly what Local News Day on April 9th is designed to champion.

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.

Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code CHUCKTODDCAST at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/chucktoddcast

Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Warwick Sabin joins the Chuck ToddCast

01:30 Creating the first nonprofit newsroom in Mississippi

04:30 What went wrong with the Jackson Clarion-Ledger?

06:30 There’s been a wholesale implosion of the old newspaper model

08:00 Potential for rebuilding a national network of newspapers?

09:15 In small markets, newspapers have to be hyper efficient

11:15 Service journalism is what creates the opportunity for “sexy” journalism

12:15 Local journalists exonerated a man on death row in Mississippi

13:15 Using local and youth sports as a community bond

15:00 Local sports is the one area where communities can avoid politics

16:30 Mississippi produces terrific writers

17:30 Having a video/audio component for reporting is critical

19:00 Human connection to journalists will be important in age of AI

21:00 People won’t trust journalists that aren’t part of their local community

22:45 AI tools can make reporting easier and more efficient

24:15 What does a community need to have to become part of your network?

25:30 Arkansas Democrat Gazette weathered the storm better than most

27:30 Arkansas is in need of a local news network 

28:45 Bill Clinton’s election kept Walmart’s headquarters in Arkansas

31:00 Northwest Arkansas produced some of America’s biggest companies

34:00 How much do you factor in local resources when launching a new paper?

36:00 What other places have you looked at to expand the network?

38:00 Model is doing civic minded journalism that is free to access

39:00 Starting from scratch, avoiding legacy costs is a huge boon

41:30 All the revenue they generate gets invested back into the news product

43:00 Newspapers & local journalism are a civic institution

45:00 Local journalism should be a public/private partnership

46:00 It is incredibly difficult to deliver straight news in smaller communities

46:45 What do you hope to get out of Local News Day?

49:30 Local journalism can help citizens survive and thrive in their communities

50:30 Is print dead, or is there a viable path for it?

52:15 What has the gutting of local & public radio meant for Mississippi?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens by announcing the launch of "Dynastic," his new sports history podcast with J.A. Adande, before turning to what may be the most consequential inflection point of the Iran war: Trump is running out of patience and actively searching for an off-ramp, but every path forward carries serious risks and his definition of victory keeps shifting by the day. Chuck warns that the U.S. continues to send more troops for potential escalation even as the military acknowledges it has achieved its strategic objectives but can only do so much — the regime has plenty of loyalists and will not go away quietly, meaning the war has now become fundamentally about perception rather than territory. He flags General Mattis's warning that Iran will claim control over the Strait of Hormuz if the U.S. retreats, that Gulf states are already hedging their security partnerships and leaning toward China, and that standing with America has become politically toxic in allied countries — a direct consequence of Trump choosing to weaken alliances before launching a war that required them. At home, the picture is equally grim: support for Trump among independents has cratered into the low 20s, the MAGA brand has become more toxic with voters than the generic Republican brand, nobody in Trump's orbit wants to own this war, and Chuck warns that while Trump has always bounced back from political crises, this time may be different — the war could be the death knell for the MAGA movement itself, because Trump hollowed out the expertise around him, surrounded himself with sycophants, and now finds both sides stuck in a conflict where retreat looks like defeat and escalation looks like madness.

Then, Warwick Sabin — president and CEO of Deep South Today, the nonprofit news network that includes the Pulitzer Prize-winning Mississippi Today, New Orleans' Verite News, and Lafayette's The Current — joins the Chuck Toddcast to discuss what may be the most promising model for saving local journalism in America. Sabin, a former three-term Arkansas state legislator and publisher of the Oxford American magazine, explains how he's building a network of nonprofit newsrooms across the Deep South from scratch, starting with Mississippi Today — the first nonprofit newsroom in Mississippi, now the largest in the state — and expanding into Louisiana and soon Arkansas. He describes the wholesale implosion of the old newspaper model, using the Jackson Clarion-Ledger's decline as a case study, and argues that the nonprofit approach has a critical advantage: starting fresh means avoiding the crushing legacy costs that buried traditional papers, and all revenue gets reinvested directly into the news product. They make the case that service journalism — covering schools, local government, youth sports — is what creates the trust and audience that makes the "sexy" investigative work possible, pointing to the fact that local journalists in his network helped exonerate a man on death row in Mississippi.

The conversation turns to what makes local journalism viable and essential in 2026 and beyond. Sabin argues that human connection to journalists will be the defining differentiator in the age of AI — people won't trust reporters who aren't part of their local community — while acknowledging that AI tools can make reporting dramatically more efficient. He discusses using local and youth sports as a community bonding agent in an era where it's one of the few areas where communities can avoid politics, notes that Mississippi produces terrific writers who need platforms, and emphasizes that having video and audio components is now critical for any news operation. They explore the potential for rebuilding a national network of nonprofit newspapers, discuss which communities are ripe for expansion and make the case that local journalism should be treated as a civic institution deserving of public-private partnership. Sabin's model is free to access, civic-minded, and designed to help citizens survive and thrive in their communities — exactly what Local News Day on April 9th is designed to champion.

Finally, Chuck gives his ToddCast Top 5 statewide incumbents most likely to lose reelection in 2026, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.

Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code CHUCKTODDCAST at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/chucktoddcast

Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

00:45 Launching the "Dynastic" sports history podcast with J.A. Adande!

09:00 Trump is running out of patience, looking for off-ramp in Iran

10:15 Trump’s definition of victory keeps changing

11:00 Every path forward in Iran carries risks

11:30 We continue to send more troops for potential escalation

12:45 Iran will have a say over who can travel through the Strait of Hormuz

13:15 Gen. Mattis believes Iran will claim control over Strait if U.S. retreats

16:00 The military has had strategic victory, but can only do so much

16:45 Regime has plenty of loyalists and will not go away quietly

18:00 Both sides are stuck, so now the war becomes about perception

18:45 Gulf states could hedge their security partnerships, lean to China

19:30 Trump hollowed out expertise & surrounded himself with sycophants

20:30 Nobody in Trump’s orbit want to own this war

21:30 Standing with the U.S. is politically unpopular in allied countries

23:00 Trump chose to weaken America’s alliance prior to launching war

23:45 War is increasingly unpopular at home

25:00 Support for Trump among independents is in the low 20’s

26:30 The MAGA brand is now more toxic with voters than Republican brand

27:30 War could be the death knell for the MAGA brand

28:45 Trump has always bounced back, but he may not be able to this time

37:00 Warwick Sabin joins the Chuck ToddCast

38:30 Creating the first nonprofit newsroom in Mississippi

41:30 What went wrong with the Jackson Clarion-Ledger?

43:30 There’s been a wholesale implosion of the old newspaper model

45:00 Potential for rebuilding a national network of newspapers?

46:15 In small markets, newspapers have to be hyper efficient

48:15 Service journalism is what creates the opportunity for “sexy” journalism

49:15 Local journalists exonerated a man on death row in Mississippi

50:15 Using local and youth sports as a community bond

52:00 Local sports is the one area where communities can avoid politics

53:30 Mississippi produces terrific writers

54:30 Having a video/audio component for reporting is critical

56:00 Human connection to journalists will be important in age of AI

58:00 People won’t trust journalists that aren’t part of their local community

59:45 AI tools can make reporting easier and more efficient

1:01:15 What does a community need to have to become part of your network?

1:02:30 Arkansas Democrat Gazette weathered the storm better than most

1:04:30 Arkansas is in need of a local news network

1:05:45 Bill Clinton’s election kept Walmart’s headquarters in Arkansas

1:08:00 Northwest Arkansas produced some of America’s biggest companies

1:11:00 How much do you factor in local resources when launching a new paper?

1:13:00 What other places have you looked at to expand the network?

1:15:00 Model is doing civic minded journalism that is free to access

1:16:00 Starting from scratch, avoiding legacy costs is a huge boon

1:18:30 All the revenue they generate gets invested back into the news product

1:20:00 Newspapers & local journalism are a civic institution

1:22:00 Local journalism should be a public/private partnership

1:23:00 It is incredibly difficult to deliver straight news in smaller communities

1:23:45 What do you hope to get out of Local News Day?

1:26:30 Local journalism can help citizens survive and thrive in their communities

1:27:30 Is print dead, or is there a viable path for it?

1:29:15 What has the gutting of local & public radio meant for Mississippi? 

1:33:00 ToddCast Top 5 statewide incumbents most likely to lose in 2026

1:34:15 #1 John Cornyn

1:35:45 #2 Dan McKee

1:38:00 #3 Bill Cassidy

1:40:30 #4 Susan Collins

1:44:30 #5 Pete Ricketts

1:45:45 Ask Chuck

1:46:00 John Hickenlooper is out. Has another state had so many 1-term dropouts?

1:50:15 Would Hilary Clinton have won the presidency if the nominee in a different year?

1:54:00 Any pop culture quotes that you love that carry weight politically?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens by announcing the launch of "Dynastic," his new sports history podcast with J.A. Adande, before turning to what may be the most consequential inflection point of the Iran war: Trump is running out of patience and actively searching for an off-ramp, but every path forward carries serious risks and his definition of victory keeps shifting by the day. Chuck warns that the U.S. continues to send more troops for potential escalation even as the military acknowledges it has achieved its strategic objectives but can only do so much — the regime has plenty of loyalists and will not go away quietly, meaning the war has now become fundamentally about perception rather than territory. He flags General Mattis's warning that Iran will claim control over the Strait of Hormuz if the U.S. retreats, that Gulf states are already hedging their security partnerships and leaning toward China, and that standing with America has become politically toxic in allied countries — a direct consequence of Trump choosing to weaken alliances before launching a war that required them. At home, the picture is equally grim: support for Trump among independents has cratered into the low 20s, the MAGA brand has become more toxic with voters than the generic Republican brand, nobody in Trump's orbit wants to own this war, and Chuck warns that while Trump has always bounced back from political crises, this time may be different — the war could be the death knell for the MAGA movement itself, because Trump hollowed out the expertise around him, surrounded himself with sycophants, and now finds both sides stuck in a conflict where retreat looks like defeat and escalation looks like madness.

Finally, Chuck gives his ToddCast Top 5 statewide incumbents most likely to lose reelection in 2026, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.

Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code CHUCKTODDCAST at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/chucktoddcast

Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

00:45 Launching the "Dynastic" sports history podcast with J.A. Adande!

09:00 Trump is running out of patience, looking for off-ramp in Iran

10:15 Trump’s definition of victory keeps changing

11:00 Every path forward in Iran carries risks

11:30 We continue to send more troops for potential escalation

12:45 Iran will have a say over who can travel through the Strait of Hormuz

13:15 Gen. Mattis believes Iran will claim control over Strait if U.S. retreats

16:00 The military has had strategic victory, but can only do so much

16:45 Regime has plenty of loyalists and will not go away quietly

18:00 Both sides are stuck, so now the war becomes about perception

18:45 Gulf states could hedge their security partnerships, lean to China

19:30 Trump hollowed out expertise & surrounded himself with sycophants

20:30 Nobody in Trump’s orbit want to own this war

21:30 Standing with the U.S. is politically unpopular in allied countries

23:00 Trump chose to weaken America’s alliance prior to launching war

23:45 War is increasingly unpopular at home

25:00 Support for Trump among independents is in the low 20’s

26:30 The MAGA brand is now more toxic with voters than Republican brand

27:30 War could be the death knell for the MAGA brand

28:45 Trump has always bounced back, but he may not be able to this time

35:30 ToddCast Top 5 statewide incumbents most likely to lose in 2026

36:45 #1 John Cornyn

38:15 #2 Dan McKee

40:30 #3 Bill Cassidy

43:00 #4 Susan Collins

47:00 #5 Pete Ricketts

48:15 Ask Chuck

48:30 John Hickenlooper is out. Has another state had so many 1-term dropouts?

52:45 Would Hilary Clinton have won the presidency if the nominee in a different year?

56:30 Any pop culture quotes that you love that carry weight politically?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the premiere episode of "Dynastic," Chuck Todd and J.A. Adande tell the full history of the Los Angeles Dodgers, from their Brooklyn beginnings, to Jackie Robinson breaking the MLB color barrier, to Kirk Gibson’s World Series heroics, and the Shohei Ohtani era. They examine all the front-office decisions and key turning points that turned the Dodgers into a baseball dynasty.

Please FOLLOW for upcoming episodes.

Follow the show on our social accounts:

https://www.twitter.com/dynasticpod/

https://www.instagram.com/dynasticpod/

https://www.facebook.com/DynasticPod

https://www.tiktok.com/@dynastic.pod

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Suzanne Kianpour — the Emmy-nominated journalist, Semafor columnist, and Iran specialist who joins the Chuck Toddcast for an extraordinarily personal and deeply informed conversation about what's actually happening inside Iran as the war enters its third week. Kianpour paints a picture of a country where people are terrified and staying home, where Persian New Year will not be a celebration, and where the fabric of the regime is visibly falling apart — yet there was no pre-war effort by the U.S. to organize a viable opposition, meaning the question of who replaces the regime remains dangerously unanswered. She examines whether President Pezeshkian could serve as a transitional figure, notes that the former foreign minister has gone conspicuously quiet, discusses the role of Reza Pahlavi and the women's movement, and reveals that sources inside Iran believe the new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, may already be dead. Kianpour delivers the stark bottom line: the regime wins simply by staying intact, and without boots on the ground or a coordinated opposition, air and naval power alone cannot finish the job.

The conversation broadens into a candid assessment of the geopolitical landscape that complicates any clean resolution. Kianpour argues that the U.S. lost the moral high ground when Trump ripped up the Obama nuclear deal a deal she defends as strategically sound even if imperfect — and that Western media has become so reflexively anti-Trump that some outlets almost want the war to fail, which is inadvertently helping the Iranian regime win the information war. She notes that Gulf states were supportive when they thought the strikes would work quickly but are now distancing themselves, that China — which brokered the Iran-Saudi détente — may end up playing the key diplomatic role. Kianpour offers a striking vision of what could emerge from the ashes: a future Iran and Israel could be close allies and co-leaders of a thriving Middle East, tut she cautions that geopolitical forgiveness must be part of any post-regime transition.

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.

Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code CHUCKTODDCAST at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/chucktoddcast

Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Suzanne Kianpour joins the Chuck ToddCast

01:45 What Sparked the Protests in Iran

03:30  Suzanne's background in Iran, how she became a conflict journalist

07:30 Reporting on the Iran nuclear deal

09:30 Could the Regime Have Fallen on Its Own? 

12:00 People in Iran are afraid and are staying at home

14:00 Persian New Year will not be a celebration this year.

16:30 Can the Regime Survive? What Would Change It? 

18:30 There was no pre-war effort to organize opposition. 

21:30 Pahlavi and the Women's Movement 

24:30 President Pazeshkian as a potential transitional figure

27:15 Former foreign minister has gone quiet. 

29:00 Regime wins if it stays intact

30:30 Was the Obama Deal naive or strategic? 

32:00 U.S. lost moral high ground after Trump ripped up the deal

34:00 Western and European media is so anti-Trump that they almost want him to fail 

36:30 The Iranian regime is winning the information war. 

39:30 Joe Kent's resignation is being framed as a "wartime defection" 

41:15 Air and naval power alone can't guarantee safe passage in Strait of Hormuz

42:45 Gulf states were supportive when they thought it would work,  now they're distancing 

45:15 China's Role China brokered the Iran-Saudi détente and may play a diplomatic role 

47:30 Social media broke the regime’s control over the Iranian public

50:00 The fabric of the regime is now visibly falling apart.

52:15 Israel wanted to permanently eliminate Iran's proxy war capability post-October 7.

54:30 A future Iran and Israel could be close allies and co-leaders of a thriving Middle East

57:15 Geopolitical forgiveness has to be part of any post-regime transition

59:45 Conflict will back into intelligence and covert operations after the kinetic phase. 

1:01:00 Sources inside Iran believe the new Supreme Leader may already be dead y.

1:04:30 Where to find Suzanne’s work

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens with the two stories dominating the weekend: the Iran war's cascading economic consequences and Trump's vile celebration of Robert Mueller's death. On Iran, Chuck warns that rising energy costs with oil above $100 a barrel are not politically neutral — they function as a tax on existence that directly breaches the contract Trump's own voters signed up for — and that Trump is visibly panicking about gas prices because they disproportionately hurt his base. He argues that killing the Ayatollah was never going to topple the regime because the Iranian leadership doesn't operate as rational actors who can be deterred by suffering, that Trump made the same catastrophic miscalculation Putin made in Ukraine by assuming it would be easy, and that nobody in Trump's orbit will deliver bad news because there is now a North Korea-level sycophancy around the president. He then turns to Trump's Truth Social post celebrating the death of Mueller — a Bronze Star combat veteran, 12-year FBI director, and lifelong public servant who died at 81 from Parkinson's disease — in which Trump wrote "Good, I'm glad he's dead." Chuck notes that even Fox News' Brit Hume tweeted that this is why people don't merely oppose Trump but actively hate him. He argues that character matters in politics more than any policy position, and that Trump is fundamentally incapable of showing grace or knowing when to shut up He revisits the Mueller investigation itself, arguing that the real failure wasn't the probe's legal conclusions — which confirmed Russia took action to help elect Trump and that the campaign expected to benefit from stolen information — but that there were no consequences, and that Trump's refusal to acknowledge Russian help was never about innocence but about protecting the legitimacy of his presidency, with the entire GOP going along because copping to it would have been politically fatal.

Suzanne Kianpour — the Emmy-nominated journalist, Semafor columnist, and Iran specialist who joins the Chuck Toddcast for an extraordinarily personal and deeply informed conversation about what's actually happening inside Iran as the war enters its third week. Kianpour paints a picture of a country where people are terrified and staying home, where Persian New Year will not be a celebration, and where the fabric of the regime is visibly falling apart — yet there was no pre-war effort by the U.S. to organize a viable opposition, meaning the question of who replaces the regime remains dangerously unanswered. She examines whether President Pezeshkian could serve as a transitional figure, notes that the former foreign minister has gone conspicuously quiet, discusses the role of Reza Pahlavi and the women's movement, and reveals that sources inside Iran believe the new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, may already be dead. Kianpour delivers the stark bottom line: the regime wins simply by staying intact, and without boots on the ground or a coordinated opposition, air and naval power alone cannot finish the job.

The conversation broadens into a candid assessment of the geopolitical landscape that complicates any clean resolution. Kianpour argues that the U.S. lost the moral high ground when Trump ripped up the Obama nuclear deal a deal she defends as strategically sound even if imperfect — and that Western media has become so reflexively anti-Trump that some outlets almost want the war to fail, which is inadvertently helping the Iranian regime win the information war. She notes that Gulf states were supportive when they thought the strikes would work quickly but are now distancing themselves, that China — which brokered the Iran-Saudi détente — may end up playing the key diplomatic role. Kianpour offers a striking vision of what could emerge from the ashes: a future Iran and Israel could be close allies and co-leaders of a thriving Middle East, tut she cautions that geopolitical forgiveness must be part of any post-regime transition.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the nuclear meltdown incident at Three Mile Island and argues that it derailed a massive transition to nuclear energy that could have led to energy independence and potentially avoided multiple wars in the middle east. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.

Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code CHUCKTODDCAST at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/chucktoddcast

Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

04:15 Launching a new sports history podcast on Tuesday!

08:30 Noosphere interview with Joseph Allbriton

09:45 Providing local news services to the Washington D.C. area

11:30 Bezos didn’t live in DC, didn’t understand WaPo’s mission 

12:45 The war in Iran is impacting everything. Everything else is downstream

13:15 Rising energy costs are not politically neutral, a tax on existing

14:15 Rising costs is a breach of the contract Trump voters signed up for

15:45 Iranian regime isn’t going to fight as rational actors, suffering doesn’t deter them

17:00 Killing the Ayatollah was never going to topple the regime

17:45 Nobody will give Trump bad news, he only hears what he wants to hear

19:00 There is a North Korea level of sycophancy around Trump

20:00 Trump made same mistake Putin made in Ukraine… thought it’d be easy

21:15 Trump alienated America’s allies, they want no part of his war

22:00 America is isolated and alone, but really need help from allies

23:45 Trump is finding out the hard way why other presidents didn’t hit Iran

25:15 Trump vacillates on his positions & messaging from day to day

26:15 Trump is panicking about gas prices, affects his voters the most

28:00 Trump celebrates Robert Mueller’s death in Truth Social post

29:45 The levels Trump will stoop to are truly sad

30:30 Brit Hume tweets “This is why people don’t just oppose Trump, they hate him”

31:15 Trump is incapable of ever showing grace or knowing when to shut up

32:15 Character matters in politics more than a policy position

33:15 Failure of Mueller investigation was no consequences for Russian meddling

34:30 Mueller report confirmed that Russia took action to help elect Trump

35:15 Wikileaks releases were very well curated & required American knowledge

37:30 Collusion wasn’t the crime, it was that Trump put himself above the country

39:15 Copping to Russian help would have delegitimized Trump, so GOP went along

40:30 People in Trump’s orbit were fine with Russian meddling since it helped them

41:30 Bob Mueller lived a life of public service, did not deserve Trump’s vile words

42:45 Trump’s supporters were mad about people mocking Charlie Kirk’s death

48:45 Suzanne Kianpour joins the Chuck ToddCast

50:30 What Sparked the Protests in Iran

52:15 Suzanne's background in Iran, how she became a conflict journalist

56:15 Reporting on the Iran nuclear deal

58:15 Could the Regime Have Fallen on Its Own?

1:00:45 People in Iran are afraid and are staying at home

1:02:45 Persian New Year will not be a celebration this year

1:05:15 Can the Regime Survive? What Would Change It?

1:07:15 There was no pre-war effort to organize opposition

1:10:15 Pahlavi and the Women's Movement

1:13:15 President Pazeshkian as a potential transitional figure

1:16:00 Former foreign minister has gone quiet

1:17:45 Regime wins if it stays intact

1:19:15 Was the Obama Deal naive or strategic?

1:20:45 U.S. lost moral high ground after Trump ripped up the deal

1:22:45 Western and European media is so anti-Trump that they almost want him to fail

1:25:15 The Iranian regime is winning the information war

1:28:15 Joe Kent's resignation is being framed as a "wartime defection"

1:30:00 Air and naval power alone can't guarantee safe passage in Strait of Hormuz

1:31:30 Gulf states were supportive when they thought it would work, now they're distancing

1:34:00 China's Role China brokered the Iran-Saudi détente and may play a diplomatic role

1:36:15 Social media broke the regime’s control over the Iranian public

1:38:45 The fabric of the regime is now visibly falling apart

1:41:00 Israel wanted to permanently eliminate Iran's proxy war capability post-October 7

1:43:15 A future Iran and Israel could be close allies and co-leaders of a thriving Middle East

1:46:00 Geopolitical forgiveness has to be part of any post-regime transition

1:48:30 Conflict will back into intelligence and covert operations after the kinetic phase

1:49:45 Sources inside Iran believe the new Supreme Leader may already be dead

1:53:15 Where to find Suzanne’s work  

1:54:30 ToddCast Time Machine - March 28th, 1979 - Three Mile Island

1:55:30 It was the fear, not the details that defined the story of Three Mile Island

1:56:15 In the 60’s and 70’s the U.S. was rapidly building nuclear power plants

1:57:15 Operators at Three Mile Island acted logically, but warning system was flawed

1:59:30 Event happened near population center, which increased the panic

2:00:30 Jimmy Carter shown visiting site in protective gear, which shifted the psychology

2:02:45 US stopped building a nuclear future, and was dependent on foreign oil

2:03:45 Nuclear industry tried to recover in the 80s… then Chernobyl happened

2:05:15 Three Mile Island, Chernobyl and Fukushima all failed for different reasons

2:06:00 Without Three Mile Island, America’s energy system could look very different

2:08:00 Three Mile Island became a symbol of doubt in nuclear energy

2:08:45 Could we have avoided multiple wars in the Middle East?

2:09:00 Ask Chuck

2:09:15 Is Trump’s vilification of political opponents more extreme than other presidents?

2:18:00 Can you recommend some books on James Garfield?

2:20:15 What issues can Democrats moderate on to appeal to independent voters?

2:23:45 Why are Republicans so much better than Democrats at messaging?

2:27:00 Any organizations to help TSA agents affected by shutdown?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens with the two stories dominating the weekend: the Iran war's cascading economic consequences and Trump's vile celebration of Robert Mueller's death. On Iran, Chuck warns that rising energy costs with oil above $100 a barrel are not politically neutral — they function as a tax on existence that directly breaches the contract Trump's own voters signed up for — and that Trump is visibly panicking about gas prices because they disproportionately hurt his base. He argues that killing the Ayatollah was never going to topple the regime because the Iranian leadership doesn't operate as rational actors who can be deterred by suffering, that Trump made the same catastrophic miscalculation Putin made in Ukraine by assuming it would be easy, and that nobody in Trump's orbit will deliver bad news because there is now a North Korea-level sycophancy around the president.

He then turns to Trump's Truth Social post celebrating the death of Mueller — a Bronze Star combat veteran, 12-year FBI director, and lifelong public servant who died at 81 from Parkinson's disease — in which Trump wrote "Good, I'm glad he's dead." Chuck notes that even Fox News' Brit Hume tweeted that this is why people don't merely oppose Trump but actively hate him. He argues that character matters in politics more than any policy position, and that Trump is fundamentally incapable of showing grace or knowing when to shut up He revisits the Mueller investigation itself, arguing that the real failure wasn't the probe's legal conclusions — which confirmed Russia took action to help elect Trump and that the campaign expected to benefit from stolen information — but that there were no consequences, and that Trump's refusal to acknowledge Russian help was never about innocence but about protecting the legitimacy of his presidency, with the entire GOP going along because copping to it would have been politically fatal.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the nuclear meltdown incident at Three Mile Island and argues that it derailed a massive transition to nuclear energy that could have led to energy independence and potentially avoided multiple wars in the middle east. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.

Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code CHUCKTODDCAST at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/chucktoddcast

Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

04:15 Launching a new sports history podcast on Tuesday!

08:30 Noosphere interview with Joseph Allbriton

09:45 Providing local news services to the Washington D.C. area

11:30 Bezos didn’t live in DC, didn’t understand WaPo’s mission 

12:45 The war in Iran is impacting everything. Everything else is downstream

13:15 Rising energy costs are not politically neutral, a tax on existing

14:15 Rising costs is a breach of the contract Trump voters signed up for

15:45 Iranian regime isn’t going to fight as rational actors, suffering doesn’t deter them

17:00 Killing the Ayatollah was never going to topple the regime

17:45 Nobody will give Trump bad news, he only hears what he wants to hear

19:00 There is a North Korea level of sycophancy around Trump

20:00 Trump made same mistake Putin made in Ukraine… thought it’d be easy

21:15 Trump alienated America’s allies, they want no part of his war

22:00 America is isolated and alone, but really need help from allies

23:45 Trump is finding out the hard way why other presidents didn’t hit Iran

25:15 Trump vacillates on his positions & messaging from day to day

26:15 Trump is panicking about gas prices, affects his voters the most

28:00 Trump celebrates Robert Mueller’s death in Truth Social post

29:45 The levels Trump will stoop to are truly sad

30:30 Brit Hume tweets “This is why people don’t just oppose Trump, they hate him”

31:15 Trump is incapable of ever showing grace or knowing when to shut up

32:15 Character matters in politics more than a policy position

33:15 Failure of Mueller investigation was no consequences for Russian meddling

34:30 Mueller report confirmed that Russia took action to help elect Trump

35:15 Wikileaks releases were very well curated & required American knowledge

37:30 Collusion wasn’t the crime, it was that Trump put himself above the country

39:15 Copping to Russian help would have delegitimized Trump, so GOP went along

40:30 People in Trump’s orbit were fine with Russian meddling since it helped them

41:30 Bob Mueller lived a life of public service, did not deserve Trump’s vile words

42:45 Trump’s supporters were mad about people mocking Charlie Kirk’s death

47:30 ToddCast Time Machine - March 28th, 1979 - Three Mile Island

48:30 It was the fear, not the details that defined the story of Three Mile Island

49:15 In the 60’s and 70’s the U.S. was rapidly building nuclear power plants

50:15 Operators at Three Mile Island acted logically, but warning system was flawed

52:30 Event happened near population center, which increased the panic

53:30 Jimmy Carter shown visiting site in protective gear, which shifted the psychology

55:45 US stopped building a nuclear future, and was dependent on foreign oil

56:45 Nuclear industry tried to recover in the 80s… then Chernobyl happened

58:15 Three Mile Island, Chernobyl and Fukushima all failed for different reasons

59:00 Without Three Mile Island, America’s energy system could look very different

1:01:00 Three Mile Island became a symbol of doubt in nuclear energy

1:01:45 Could we have avoided multiple wars in the Middle East?

1:02:00 Ask Chuck

1:02:15 Is Trump’s vilification of political opponents more extreme than other presidents?

1:11:00 Can you recommend some books on James Garfield?

1:13:15 What issues can Democrats moderate on to appeal to independent voters?

1:16:45 Why are Republicans so much better than Democrats at messaging?

1:20:00 Any organizations to help TSA agents affected by shutdown? 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd digs into the wreckage of the Illinois primary — where more than $50 million in outside money from crypto, AI, and AIPAC-linked groups flooded Democratic races — and asks what it means for the future of American democracy when PACs and outside groups are far outspending the actual campaigns they're trying to influence. He credits Stratton for being able to overcome the massive crypto onslaught — a rare and significant defeat for an industry that has been buying influence across both parties — but warns that her victory required a billionaire governor's financial backing to counteract billionaire-funded opposition, which only underscores the problem. He traces the rot back to McCain-Feingold, arguing that the landmark campaign finance law inadvertently weakened the parties by decentralizing money, which in turn decentralized accountability — and that the Supreme Court's subsequent decisions let the situation spiral completely out of control. He calls out Chuck Schumer directly for caving to crypto money and pressuring his caucus to go along, notes that campaign finance reform feels like an unwinnable issue because the people who benefit from the current system are the ones who'd have to change it, He closes with a broader observation: with money deciding which candidates are viable before voters even weigh in, and with the country having produced three consecutive one-term presidents, American politics is likely to remain deeply unstable for years to come.

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code CHUCKTODDCAST at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/chucktoddcast

 Refresh your wardrobe with Quince. Go to https://Quince.com/chuck for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00: Chuck Todd’s introduction

02:15: AI & Pac money dominates the Illinois Primary

05:30: Campaign finance reform feels like an “unwinnable issue”

08:30 McCain-Feingold weakened the parties 

11:00 Chuck Schumer caves to huge crypto money

12:30 Illinois primary became Ground Zero for Donor-Centered Politics 

15:15 Juliana Stratton was able to overcome massive crypto donors.

16:45: Decentralizing money decentralized accountability

18:15 Money decides which candidates are viable

21:45 Should Democrats find their own billionaire?

26:30 U.S. politics likely to remain unstable, with multiple 1 term presidents

33:00 Ask Chuck

33:15 Would National Press Club membership be good for young journalists?

37:15 When did America actually become a country?

40:30 Is it worth contacting reps who already agree with you?

44:30 Thoughts on Mississippi as a potential Democratic opportunity?

48:45 Viability of the National Popular Vote Compact?

55:30 Will congress ever address daylight savings time?

58:45 NCAA tournament picks

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd digs into the wreckage of the Illinois primary — where more than $50 million in outside money from crypto, AI, and AIPAC-linked groups flooded Democratic races — and asks what it means for the future of American democracy when PACs and outside groups are far outspending the actual campaigns they're trying to influence. He credits Stratton for being able to overcome the massive crypto onslaught — a rare and significant defeat for an industry that has been buying influence across both parties — but warns that her victory required a billionaire governor's financial backing to counteract billionaire-funded opposition, which only underscores the problem.

He traces the rot back to McCain-Feingold, arguing that the landmark campaign finance law inadvertently weakened the parties by decentralizing money, which in turn decentralized accountability — and that the Supreme Court's subsequent decisions let the situation spiral completely out of control. He calls out Chuck Schumer directly for caving to crypto money and pressuring his caucus to go along, notes that campaign finance reform feels like an unwinnable issue because the people who benefit from the current system are the ones who'd have to change it, He closes with a broader observation: with money deciding which candidates are viable before voters even weigh in, and with the country having produced three consecutive one-term presidents, American politics is likely to remain deeply unstable for years to come.

Former Oklahoma Congressman and now president of Americans for Responsible Innovation Brad Carson joins the Chuck Toddcast for a wide-ranging conversation about why AI may be the most consequential policy issue nobody in Washington is seriously addressing. They discuss why  Americans are uniquely pessimistic about AI compared to the rest of the world, and for good reason: huge AI money is pouring into races like the Illinois Senate primary where outside groups and PACs are far outspending actual campaigns, Elon Musk's Grok chatbot adopted a "MechaHitler" persona and is now integrated at the Pentagon, we have virtually no visibility into what's happening inside AI labs or how these systems are being deployed, and the same technology that could deliver incredible medical breakthroughs could also be used to develop bioweapons. Carson argues that immunizing tech companies with Section 230 was a massive mistake — the law passed before anyone understood how the technology would evolve — and that recommendation algorithms effectively make platforms publishers, meaning the Supreme Court has fundamentally misinterpreted the First Amendment when it comes to tech regulation. 

He makes the case that state-level regulation may be the more immediate solution given congressional dysfunction and warns that surveillance pricing — where companies like the Washington Post reportedly examined subscribers' credit reports when setting prices — seems blatantly unconstitutional. They contend that consumer protection for AI would be a winning political message for either party, that the electrical grid alone will need a trillion dollars in investment to support AI's energy demands, and that letting the private sector roll out this technology without guardrails is an enormous risk. 

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code CHUCKTODDCAST at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/chucktoddcast

 Refresh your wardrobe with Quince. Go to https://Quince.com/chuck for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00: Chuck Todd’s introduction

02:15: AI & Pac money dominates the Illinois Primary

05:30: Campaign finance reform feels like an “unwinnable issue”

08:30 McCain-Feingold weakened the parties 

11:00 Chuck Schumer caves to huge crypto money

12:30 Illinois primary became Ground Zero for Donor-Centered Politics 

15:15 Juliana Stratton was able to overcome massive crypto donors.

16:45: Decentralizing money decentralized accountability

18:15 Money decides which candidates are viable

21:45 Should Democrats find their own billionaire?

26:30 U.S. politics likely to remain unstable, with multiple 1 term presidents

36:00 Rep. Brad Carson joins the Chuck ToddCast

38:30 Americans are uniquely pessimistic about AI

39:30 What is Americans for Responsible Innovation & who funds it?

41:15 Anthropic believes that AI needs reasonable guardrails

41:45 Huge AI money pouring into Illinois primary races

42:45 Outside groups & PACs are far outspending actual campaigns

44:15 Money is destroying democracy, SCOTUS let it get out of hand

45:45 Immunizing tech companies with Section 230 was a huge mistake

47:00 Courts need to develop common law for regulating tech

48:15 Recommendation algorithms make tech platforms a publisher

49:15 SCOTUS misinterpreted 1st amendment when regulating tech

50:15 Sec. 230 passed before knowing how the tech would evolve

51:30 State level regulation may be the more immediate solution

52:30 How do you determine which candidates to support?

54:00 The tech isn’t unpopular, it’s how it has interacted with U.S. politics

55:00 We know social media is bad for us, but can’t quit it

56:15 Congressional leadership has stood in the way of regulation

57:30 What’s a safer way to roll out AI regulation in a broken political system?

58:45 There are certain safeguards that must be built into AI models

59:30 Grok took on a “MechaHitler” persona & is integrated at the Pentagon

1:01:15 Letting the private sector roll out AI without regulation is a huge risk

1:02:00 We have no visibility into AI labs or how it’s being deployed

1:03:30 AI can be used for incredible medical advances… or bioweapons

1:05:30 Ron DeSantis is proposing an “AI Bill of Rights” in Florida

1:06:15 Surveillance pricing seems incredibly unconstitutional and illegal

1:07:00 Washington Post looked at subscribers’ credit reports when pricing

1:08:30 People deserve to know if AI is evaluating them when applying for jobs

1:10:00 We haven’t had enough debate around the AI issue

1:10:45 Who can be a trusted voice to lead the debate?

1:12:15 Consumer protection for AI would be a winning political message

1:14:30 Fear of AI job displacement & rising electricity prices at the forefront

1:15:45 The electrical grid will need a trillion dollars invested into it

1:17:15 The difference between Oklahoma Democrats & national ones?

1:19:45 The tribes have become the check on Republicans in Oklahoma

1:21:45 Ossoff & Buttigieg are two potential ‘28 Dems that stand out

1:22:45 Dems need to attack Trump for lying to base, rather than attack his voters

1:24:00 How did you like being the president of Tulsa University?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Former Oklahoma Congressman and now president of Americans for Responsible Innovation Brad Carson joins the Chuck Toddcast for a wide-ranging conversation about why AI may be the most consequential policy issue nobody in Washington is seriously addressing. They discuss why  Americans are uniquely pessimistic about AI compared to the rest of the world, and for good reason: huge AI money is pouring into races like the Illinois Senate primary where outside groups and PACs are far outspending actual campaigns, Elon Musk's Grok chatbot adopted a "MechaHitler" persona and is now integrated at the Pentagon, we have virtually no visibility into what's happening inside AI labs or how these systems are being deployed, and the same technology that could deliver incredible medical breakthroughs could also be used to develop bioweapons. Carson argues that immunizing tech companies with Section 230 was a massive mistake — the law passed before anyone understood how the technology would evolve — and that recommendation algorithms effectively make platforms publishers, meaning the Supreme Court has fundamentally misinterpreted the First Amendment when it comes to tech regulation. 

He makes the case that state-level regulation may be the more immediate solution given congressional dysfunction and warns that surveillance pricing — where companies like the Washington Post reportedly examined subscribers' credit reports when setting prices — seems blatantly unconstitutional. They contend that consumer protection for AI would be a winning political message for either party, that the electrical grid alone will need a trillion dollars in investment to support AI's energy demands, and that letting the private sector roll out this technology without guardrails is an enormous risk. 

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Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Rep. Brad Carson joins the Chuck ToddCast

02:30 Americans are uniquely pessimistic about AI

03:30 What is Americans for Responsible Innovation & who funds it?

05:15 Anthropic believes that AI needs reasonable guardrails

05:45 Huge AI money pouring into Illinois primary races

06:45 Outside groups & PACs are far outspending actual campaigns

08:15 Money is destroying democracy, SCOTUS let it get out of hand

09:45 Immunizing tech companies with Section 230 was a huge mistake

11:00 Courts need to develop common law for regulating tech

12:15 Recommendation algorithms make tech platforms a publisher

13:15 SCOTUS misinterpreted 1st amendment when regulating tech

14:15 Sec. 230 passed before knowing how the tech would evolve

15:30 State level regulation may be the more immediate solution

16:30 How do you determine which candidates to support?

18:00 The tech isn’t unpopular, it’s how it has interacted with U.S. politics

19:00 We know social media is bad for us, but can’t quit it

20:15 Congressional leadership has stood in the way of regulation

21:30 What’s a safer way to roll out AI regulation in a broken political system?

22:45 There are certain safeguards that must be built into AI models

23:30 Grok took on a “MechaHitler” persona & is integrated at the Pentagon

25:15 Letting the private sector roll out AI without regulation is a huge risk

26:00 We have no visibility into AI labs or how it’s being deployed

27:30 AI can be used for incredible medical advances… or bioweapons

29:30 Ron DeSantis is proposing an “AI Bill of Rights” in Florida

30:15 Surveillance pricing seems incredibly unconstitutional and illegal

31:00 Washington Post looked at subscribers’ credit reports when pricing

32:30 People deserve to know if AI is evaluating them when applying for jobs

34:00 We haven’t had enough debate around the AI issue

34:45 Who can be a trusted voice to lead the debate?

36:15 Consumer protection for AI would be a winning political message

38:30 Fear of AI job displacement & rising electricity prices at the forefront

39:45 The electrical grid will need a trillion dollars invested into it

41:15 The difference between Oklahoma Democrats & national ones?

43:45 The tribes have become the check on Republicans in Oklahoma

45:45 Ossoff & Buttigieg are two potential ‘28 Dems that stand out

46:45 Dems need to attack Trump for lying to base, rather than attack his voters

48:00 How did you like being the president of Tulsa University?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Amy Littlefield — investigative reporter for The Nation and author of the new book Killers of Roe: My Investigation into the Mysterious Death of Abortion Rights — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a fascinating deep dive into the decades-long campaign that dismantled abortion rights in America, framed through the lens of an Agatha Christie-style murder mystery where the killers turn out to be the people you least suspect. Littlefield reveals that the death of Roe was not a single blow but death by a thousand stab wounds from multiple suspects: a Catholic hospital system that now controls one in six beds in America with reproductive care restrictions, an evangelical movement that amassed enormous political power in the Reagan era, a Democratic Party that was deeply complicit — the Hyde Amendment passed through a Democratic-majority Congress and real women died as a result — and operatives like Leonard Leo, who hand-delivered Trump a list of Supreme Court justices guaranteed to overturn Roe. Littlefield argues that anti-abortion activists brilliantly copied the playbook of the civil rights movement, that fighting against something is inherently more galvanizing than defending something, and that reproductive rights groups like Planned Parenthood and NARAL were constantly outflanked by a more organized, more disciplined opposition that understood single-issue voters could be leveraged for outsized political power.

The conversation turns to the future of reproductive rights in a post-Dobbs America — and the picture is more complicated than either side admits. Littlefield points out that the number of abortions has actually increased since the Dobbs decision, that anti-abortion ballot initiatives consistently lose even in conservative areas, and that there's 80% public support that could be leveraged if the movement reframed its message around freedom rather than choice and connected reproductive rights to economic concerns. But she warns that anti-abortion activists aren't done: they want birth control and IVF outlawed next, and anti-women political movements are gaining momentum globally. 

Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code CHUCKTODDCAST at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/chucktoddcast

 Refresh your wardrobe with Quince. Go to https://Quince.com/chuck for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Amy Littlefield joins the Chuck ToddCast

01:30 Why did you choose the murder mystery framing for this book?

02:45 1 in 6 beds is in a Catholic hospital that have reproductive care restrictions

04:15 Agatha Christie’s style was an inspiration for the book

07:15 We know the political side of the story, wanted to tell the activist story

08:45 Getting the Roe decision required a strong grassroots movement

09:15 The Catholic church has a strong organizational operation

10:30 Reproductive rights wasn’t a left vs. right issue in the 70s and 80s

12:45 Democrats have been complicit in the erosion of reproductive rights

13:45 The Hyde amendment got through a Democratic majority congress

14:45 Evangelicals amassed huge political power in the Reagan era

15:30 Reagan flipped his position on abortion during his presidency

17:15 Abortion and guns are the two single-issue voting issues

18:00 Republicans extracted huge power out of single issue voters

19:15 People are willing to compromise other values for anti-abortion position

20:00 Anti-abortion activists know they don’t have majority support

21:30 Was “choice” the worst word they could pick? Why not frame it as freedom?

24:15 Examining the first deaths after the passage of Hyde amendment

25:00 Why didn’t deaths due to the Hyde amendment galvanize voters?

27:30 Justices didn’t want 5-4 on Roe so they came up with convoluted argument

28:30 A flawed legal rationale isn’t why Roe fell

30:00 The abortion rights fight has always been in the states

31:45 The debate has been over codifying Roe or codifying a right

33:45 Repealing the Hyde amendment was biggest win in years for abortion rights

35:30 Planned Parenthood has had an oversized role in defending abortion rights

36:15 Would there be a Federalist Society without Roe?

37:00 Leonard Leo handed Trump the names of justices that would overturn Roe

38:15 Anti-abortion activists copied the playbook of the civil rights movement

39:45 Is there anybody on the pro-abortion rights side that deserves blame for Dobbs?

41:00 Reproductive rights groups like PP and NARAL were constantly outflanked

42:00 Fighting against something is more galvanizing than defending something

43:30 Anti-abortion ballot initiatives consistently lose, even in conservative areas

46:00 Conservatives have laid claim to the words “freedom” and “patriot”

48:15 Does the codification of abortion rights happen by the 2030s?

50:15 Reproductive rights aren’t talked about in an economic framing

52:00 Can abortion rights movement draft off heavy support for birth control?

52:30 Anti-abortion activists want to see birth control and IVF outlawed

54:30 Will activists go to congress for an answer or will it be a long campaign?

55:30 Number of abortions has gone up since the Dobbs decision

57:30 Death of Roe was death by a thousand stab wounds from many suspects

59:30 Anti-abortion and anti-women political movements are gaining momentum

1:00:45 Republican women look uncomfortable with position they’ve been put in

1:02:45 People sharing their stories with abortion is incredibly important

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens with the bluntest assessment yet of the Iran war as it enters its third week: America's position as leader of the free world is unraveling in real time, the risk of mission creep is enormous, and we are now seeing exactly why every previous president chose not to attack Iran. Trump is ranting and begging allies to help secure the Strait of Hormuz. He notes that Trump is even angling for a joint operation with China to police the strait — a surreal proposition given the broader geopolitical rivalry — and that Trump is learning the hard way why you don't alienate allies before starting a war that requires their help. The Director of Counterterrorism has resigned over the conflict, DNI Tulsi Gabbard is performing rhetorical contortions to signal she doesn't believe in the war while keeping her job, and the administration has entered what Chuck calls the "cover your ass" stage. He argues that Trump's coalition has been fracturing for six months, that America is demonstrably less secure today than before the strikes began, and that this war — which has confirmed to the world that America is truly alone — could ultimately prove more damaging than Vietnam or Iraq. He closes by noting softening poll numbers for Republicans like Lindsey Graham and Vivek Ramaswamy, and that Maine Governor Janet Mills has gone sharply negative against progressive challenger Graham Platner in their Senate primary — a sign that the vetting process is heating up in ways that will ultimately be healthy for the party.

Finally, Chuck lists his ToddCast Top 5 statewide campaigns from the state of Illinois and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code CHUCKTODDCAST at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/chucktoddcast

 Refresh your wardrobe with Quince. Go to https://Quince.com/chuck for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

05:00 Iran war keeps getting worse for Trump, risk of mission creep is high

05:15 America’s place as “Leader of the Free World” is unraveling 

06:00 The military part is going well, the diplomatic part is a disaster

06:45 We’re seeing the reasons previous presidents didn’t attack Iran

07:30 Director of Counterterrorism resigns over the war

09:00 Trump is either not getting the truth or being told what he wants to hear

10:00 Gabbard argues Trump has mandate despite not getting 50% of the vote

11:00 Gabbard says only Trump can determine what is an "imminent threat”

11:45 Gabbard wants she signal she doesn’t believe in war, but keep her job

12:45 We’re in the “cover your ass” stage of the war

15:30 Many MAGA true believers like Joe Kent & MTG wanted no more wars

18:00 If you can’t serve the president, resigning is the right thing to do

18:45 We’re less secure today than before the war started

19:30 Trump’s coalition has been fracturing for six months

21:30 Trump’s ranting and begging for help with the Strait of Hormuz

23:00 Strait of Hormuz has always been the Iranian regime’s leverage

24:00 Securing the strait requires boots on the ground

24:45 Trump is learning the hard way why you don’t alienate allies

26:30 If the regime stays in place, it’ll look like Trump retreated

27:30 This war has been confirmation that America is alone

29:15 This war could be more damaging that Vietnam or Iraq 2

30:00 We need real diplomacy and there hasn’t been any of it

30:45 Trump angling for joint operation with China which is… weird

31:15 Trump wants a way out, but boxed himself in

32:30 We’re starting to see softening support for other elected Republicans

33:15 Polls show Lindsey Graham & Vivek Ramaswamy’s support way down

34:30 Janet Mills decides to go sharply negative against Graham Platner

36:45 The vetting in the primary will be healthy for the Democrats

41:15 Abortion may take a backseat to economy, but could affect midterms

43:00 ToddCast Top 5 statewide races in Illinois

44:00 Illinois has produced 2 presidents and sent 4 governors to prison

45:45 #1 Obama’s 2004 senate campaign

51:15 #2 1992 senate campaign

54:15 1960 presidential Kennedy v Nixon

57:15 1984 Simon vs. Percy

59:45 1986 Democratic primary chaos

1:03:15 Honorable mentions

1:05:15 Ask Chuck

1:05:30 Are we normalizing the denigration of female journalists by Trump?

1:09:45 Why do politics feel so much harder now, and we can’t find agreement?

1:11:45 How much did gutting State Dept. lead to evacuation debacle in middle east?

1:15:30 Did Spanberger tee up a wave in the next election with gun control legislation?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens with the bluntest assessment yet of the Iran war as it enters its third week: America's position as leader of the free world is unraveling in real time, the risk of mission creep is enormous, and we are now seeing exactly why every previous president chose not to attack Iran. Trump is ranting and begging allies to help secure the Strait of Hormuz. He notes that Trump is even angling for a joint operation with China to police the strait — a surreal proposition given the broader geopolitical rivalry — and that Trump is learning the hard way why you don't alienate allies before starting a war that requires their help. The Director of Counterterrorism has resigned over the conflict, DNI Tulsi Gabbard is performing rhetorical contortions to signal she doesn't believe in the war while keeping her job, and the administration has entered what Chuck calls the "cover your ass" stage. He argues that Trump's coalition has been fracturing for six months, that America is demonstrably less secure today than before the strikes began, and that this war — which has confirmed to the world that America is truly alone — could ultimately prove more damaging than Vietnam or Iraq. He closes by noting softening poll numbers for Republicans like Lindsey Graham and Vivek Ramaswamy, and that Maine Governor Janet Mills has gone sharply negative against progressive challenger Graham Platner in their Senate primary — a sign that the vetting process is heating up in ways that will ultimately be healthy for the party.

Then, Amy Littlefield — investigative reporter for The Nation and author of the new book Killers of Roe: My Investigation into the Mysterious Death of Abortion Rights — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a fascinating deep dive into the decades-long campaign that dismantled abortion rights in America, framed through the lens of an Agatha Christie-style murder mystery where the killers turn out to be the people you least suspect. Littlefield reveals that the death of Roe was not a single blow but death by a thousand stab wounds from multiple suspects: a Catholic hospital system that now controls one in six beds in America with reproductive care restrictions, an evangelical movement that amassed enormous political power in the Reagan era, a Democratic Party that was deeply complicit — the Hyde Amendment passed through a Democratic-majority Congress and real women died as a result — and operatives like Leonard Leo, who hand-delivered Trump a list of Supreme Court justices guaranteed to overturn Roe. Littlefield argues that anti-abortion activists brilliantly copied the playbook of the civil rights movement, that fighting against something is inherently more galvanizing than defending something, and that reproductive rights groups like Planned Parenthood and NARAL were constantly outflanked by a more organized, more disciplined opposition that understood single-issue voters could be leveraged for outsized political power.

The conversation turns to the future of reproductive rights in a post-Dobbs America — and the picture is more complicated than either side admits. Littlefield points out that the number of abortions has actually increased since the Dobbs decision, that anti-abortion ballot initiatives consistently lose even in conservative areas, and that there's 80% public support that could be leveraged if the movement reframed its message around freedom rather than choice and connected reproductive rights to economic concerns. But she warns that anti-abortion activists aren't done: they want birth control and IVF outlawed next, and anti-women political movements are gaining momentum globally. 

Finally, Chuck lists his ToddCast Top 5 statewide campaigns from the state of Illinois and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code CHUCKTODDCAST at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/chucktoddcast

 Refresh your wardrobe with Quince. Go to https://Quince.com/chuck for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

05:00 Iran war keeps getting worse for Trump, risk of mission creep is high

05:15 America’s place as “Leader of the Free World” is unraveling 

06:00 The military part is going well, the diplomatic part is a disaster

06:45 We’re seeing the reasons previous presidents didn’t attack Iran

07:30 Director of Counterterrorism resigns over the war

09:00 Trump is either not getting the truth or being told what he wants to hear

10:00 Gabbard argues Trump has mandate despite not getting 50% of the vote

11:00 Gabbard says only Trump can determine what is an "imminent threat”

11:45 Gabbard wants she signal she doesn’t believe in war, but keep her job

12:45 We’re in the “cover your ass” stage of the war

15:30 Many MAGA true believers like Joe Kent & MTG wanted no more wars

18:00 If you can’t serve the president, resigning is the right thing to do

18:45 We’re less secure today than before the war started

19:30 Trump’s coalition has been fracturing for six months

21:30 Trump’s ranting and begging for help with the Strait of Hormuz

23:00 Strait of Hormuz has always been the Iranian regime’s leverage

24:00 Securing the strait requires boots on the ground

24:45 Trump is learning the hard way why you don’t alienate allies

26:30 If the regime stays in place, it’ll look like Trump retreated

27:30 This war has been confirmation that America is alone

29:15 This war could be more damaging that Vietnam or Iraq 2

30:00 We need real diplomacy and there hasn’t been any of it

30:45 Trump angling for joint operation with China which is… weird

31:15 Trump wants a way out, but boxed himself in

32:30 We’re starting to see softening support for other elected Republicans

33:15 Polls show Lindsey Graham & Vivek Ramaswamy’s support way down

34:30 Janet Mills decides to go sharply negative against Graham Platner

36:45 The vetting in the primary will be healthy for the Democrats

41:30 Amy Littlefield joins the Chuck ToddCast

43:00 Why did you choose the murder mystery framing for this book?

44:15 1 in 6 beds is in a Catholic hospital that have reproductive care restrictions

45:45 Agatha Christie’s style was an inspiration for the book

48:45 We know the political side of the story, wanted to tell the activist story

50:15 Getting the Roe v. Wade decision required a strong grassroots movement

50:45 The Catholic church has a strong organizational operation

52:00 Reproductive rights wasn’t a left vs. right issue in the 70s and 80s

54:15 Democrats have been complicit in the erosion of reproductive rights

55:15 The Hyde Amendment got through a Democratic majority congress

56:15 Evangelicals amassed huge political power in the Reagan era

57:00 Ronald Reagan flipped his position on abortion during his presidency

58:45 Abortion and guns are the two single-issue voting issues

59:30 Republicans extracted huge power out of single issue voters

1:00:45 People are willing to compromise other values for anti-abortion position

1:01:30 Anti-abortion activists know they don’t have majority support

1:03:00 Was “choice” the worst word they could pick? Why not frame it as freedom?

1:05:45 Examining the first deaths after the passage of Hyde amendment

1:06:30 Why didn’t deaths due to the Hyde amendment galvanize voters?

1:09:00 Justices didn’t want 5-4 on Roe so they came up with convoluted argument

1:10:00 A flawed legal rationale isn’t why Roe fell

1:11:30 The abortion rights fight has always been in the states

1:13:15 The debate has been over codifying Roe or codifying a right

1:15:15 Repealing the Hyde amendment was biggest win in years for abortion rights

1:17:00 Planned Parenthood has had an oversized role in defending abortion rights

1:17:45 Would there be a Federalist Society without Roe?

1:18:30 Leonard Leo handed Donald Trump the names of justices that would overturn Roe

1:19:45 Anti-abortion activists copied the playbook of the civil rights movement

1:21:15 Is there anybody on the pro-abortion rights side that deserves blame for Dobbs

1:22:30 Reproductive rights groups like PP and NARAL were constantly outflanked

1:23:30 Fighting against something is more galvanizing than defending something

1:25:00 Anti-abortion ballot initiatives consistently lose, even in conservative areas

1:27:30 Conservatives have laid claim to the words “freedom” and “patriot”

1:29:45 Does the codification of abortion rights happen by the 2030s?

1:31:45 Reproductive rights aren’t talked about in an economic framing

1:33:30 Can abortion rights movement draft off heavy support for birth control?

1:34:00 Anti-abortion activists want to see birth control and IVF outlawed

1:36:00 Will activists go to congress for an answer or will it be a long campaign?

1:37:00 Number of abortions has gone up since the Dobbs decision

1:39:00 Death of Roe was death by a thousand stab wounds from many suspects

1:41:00 Anti-abortion and anti-women political movements are gaining momentum

1:42:15 Republican women look uncomfortable with position they’ve been put in

1:44:15 People sharing their stories with abortion is incredibly important

1:47:00 Abortion may take a backseat to economy, but could affect midterms

1:48:45 ToddCast Top 5 statewide races in Illinois

1:49:45 Illinois has produced 2 presidents and sent 4 governors to prison

1:51:30 #1 Barack Obama’s 2004 senate campaign

1:57:00 #2 1992 senate campaign

2:00:00 1960 United States presidential election

2:03:00 1984 Paul Simon vs. Charles H. Percy

2:05:30 1986 Democratic primary chaos

2:09:00 Honorable mentions

2:11:00 Ask Chuck

2:11:15 Are we normalizing the denigration of female journalists by Donald Trump?

2:15:30 Why do politics feel so much harder now, and we can’t find agreement?

2:17:30 Did gutting Department of State lead to evacuation debacle in middle east?

2:21:15 Did Abigail Spanberger tee up a wave in the next election with gun control legislation?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd delivers a sweeping analysis of how the Iran war is metastasizing into an economic, military, and constitutional crisis all at once — warning that the Strait of Hormuz, the most important waterway in the world through which roughly a fifth of global oil supply flows, is Iran's ultimate point of leverage and one Trump catastrophically failed to account for. He argues that Trump mistakenly assumed the Iranian regime would be as transactional as he is and would capitulate the way Venezuela did, but Iran has no intention of walking away from its ability to make the strait dangerous to navigate — which is all it takes to send energy markets into chaos, threaten the tourism and banking economies of Gulf states, and risk the economic collapse of nuclear-armed Pakistan through energy shortages. He calls Pete Hegseth a "Baghdad Bob"-style propagandist presiding over the administration's grotesque "memeification" of war, then turns to what he calls FCC Chairman Brendan Carr's declaration of war on press freedom — Carr threatened Saturday to revoke broadcast licenses over Iran war coverage the administration deems unfavorable, drawing immediate condemnation from Democrats, free speech groups, and even some Republicans who called it "authoritarian" and "unconstitutional." Chuck warns that while courts will likely block Carr's most extreme threats, the mere act of launching investigations creates a chilling effect not dissimilar to how broadcasting works in Russia.  He closes by acknowledging that the Iranian regime needs to go, but that Trump's disastrous decision to lift oil sanctions on Russia has only strengthened Moscow's position, and that the war has dramatically increased the likelihood of terrorist attacks against Americans 

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the creation of standardized time, answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment, and gives his advice for building your NCAA tournament bracket.

 Refresh your wardrobe with Quince. Go to https://Quince.com/chuck for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

04:15 The Iran War will impact nearly everything

05:00 Military, war has been a route but it’s become asymmetrical

05:45 The Strait of Hormuz is the most important waterway in the world

06:45 Trump mistakenly assumed Iranian regime would be transactional like him

08:00 Shutting the strait is Iran’s biggest point of deterrence

09:00 Shutting the strait can massively damage the world economy

09:45 Trump miscalculated Iran would capitulate like Venezuela

12:00 The strait is Iran’s leverage, they aren’t going to walk away from it

12:45 Trump talks a big game, but Iran can extract a huge price on the west

14:15 Pete Hegseth has become a “Baghdad Bob” style propagandist

15:30 Asymmetrical warfare is how America won the Revolutionary War

16:45 All Iran has to do is make the Strait of Hormuz dangerous to navigate

17:30 Reagan had to intervene in the Gulf in the 80s to secure shipping routes

18:15 Convoy protection missions rarely stay small

19:15 If keeping shipping lanes open is the goal, the timeline & operation expands

20:00 Gulf states has become tourism & banking hubs, that’s being threatened

21:15 War is both an economic and “image” blow to the gulf states

22:30 Energy shortages risk the economic collapse of nuclear armed Pakistan

23:30 Trump made a disastrous decision to lift oil sanctions on Russia

24:00 War in Iran is strengthening Russia’s position in the Ukraine war

24:45 Energy prices affect the entire economy. Will raise inflation in America

25:30 This war is a major economic gamble

26:30 FCC Chair declares war on freedom of the press

27:15 Carr threatens to pull broadcast licenses over unfavorable war coverage

28:15 Carr’s threats aren’t dissimilar to how broadcasting works in Russia

30:00 FCC just launching investigations can put pressure on networks

31:15 ABC settling with Trump was a massive mistake

32:30 Project 2025 proposed “broadcast regulation” similar to this

33:45 Administration’s “memeification” of war is gross & embarrassing

35:00 War has increased likelihood of terrorist attacks against American

35:30 American Jews & Muslims have had to spend millions on security

36:15 Administration hiding terrorism reports should scare us*

37:45 The courts will stop Brendan Carr from violating press freedom

38:45 Administration owes the people an explanation

39:30 The Iranian regime needs to go, but war has serious costs

46:00 Illinois primary livestream with DDHQ & Chris Cillizza on Tuesday

47:15 ToddCast Time Machine - When time back standardized

48:00 March 19, 1918 Congress passes the Standard Time Act

48:45 Local time standards were a problem with development of railroads

49:30 Coordinating trains wasn’t just difficult, it was dangerous

50:00 Sanford Fleming proposed dividing globe into timezones

50:30 Railroads imposed standardized times before government did

52:00 Train crash near Tipton, Ohio showed issues with timekeeping

53:15 Railroad safety become dependant on pocketwatches

54:00 Daylight savings time is adopted during WW1

54:45 World War required standardized time to coordinate

55:15 Congress formalized standard time after entering WW1

56:15 Daylight savings time was eliminated, but returns in WW2

56:45 Congress passes the Uniform Time Act in 1966

57:30 States can opt out of the Uniform Time Act

59:00 World clocks are now synchronized via atomic clocks

1:00:00 Ask Chuck

1:00:15 Are the Democrats walking into a trap by elevating Graham Platner?

1:07:15 The Perfect Neighbor told a gripping story via bodycam footage

1:10:00 How do you feel about Trump claiming credit for you becoming independent?

1:15:00 NCAA bracket advice

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Faiz Shakir — Bernie Sanders' 2020 campaign manager, former DNC chair candidate, and executive director of the progressive media organization More Perfect Union — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a bracingly honest conversation about what's wrong with the Democratic Party and what it would take to fix it. Shakir diagnoses a party that is functionally leaderless, with its top figures stuck in a "play dead" mentality while the Democratic brand polls worse than the Republican brand even as Trump's corruption grows more brazen by the day. He argues that Trump — like Biden before him — is finger-wagging at voters on the economy rather than addressing affordability, and that Democrats are blowing the opportunity to capitalize because they're terrible at picking fights and allergic to friction. Shakir is particularly scathing on the party's relationship with big tech and corporate power: He holds up Bernie Sanders' AI data center moratorium as the kind of fight Democrats should be waging, and Lina Khan's FTC tenure as the model of mission-driven disruption.

The conversation then turns to the future of the party and how to build a lasting majority. Shakir argues that the right candidate could move 7% of the electorate from right to left, that if Sanders were younger he'd likely win in 2028, and that Sanders has more credibility than AOC because he represents a rural state — though he praises both AOC's national appeal and Ro Khanna's political intelligence. He insists Democrats need to fight a class-based economic justice campaign, stop punishing candidates who aren't perfectly aligned on social issues, and recognize that "independent" doesn't mean centrist — younger voters are disillusioned with both parties and hungry for a working-class-first agenda. Shakir offers a detailed vision for DNC reform: fund state parties based on merit and metrics, move Nevada to first on the primary calendar because Vegas politics would orient the party toward working-class concerns, add Michigan and North Carolina to the early window,and invest in sun belt opportunities He closes by noting that James Talarico channeled Bernie's message with a religious-based framing, and that Democratic voters always gravitate toward outsiders — the party just needs to let them run.

 Refresh your wardrobe with Quince. Go to https://Quince.com/chuck for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Faiz Shakir joins the Chuck ToddCast

01:45 Democratic party seems leaderless

02:15 Would you run again for DNC chair?

03:45 Leaders of the party have a bit of a “play dead” mentality

04:30 Democratic brand is still in worse shape than Republican brand

05:45 Trump having billionaires at inauguration was foreshadowing

06:15 Trump’s corruption is incredibly brazen

07:15 It’s obvious Trump doesn’t care about affordability

08:15 Trump, like Biden, is finger wagging at voters on the economy

09:30 Vance sold himself as an anti-interventionalist populist 

10:15 Vance has had to completely go against his political identity

11:00 Trump’s corruption has totally undermined Vance

12:30 Trump’s argument of "imminent threat” from Iran is nonsense

14:00 Chuck Schumer told his caucus to “suck it up” on crypto 

15:30 The public is far ahead of politicians in being skeptical of AI

16:15 Very little is being offered by AI that would improve lives of working class

17:00 Every candidate in Illinois senate race basically has a big tech sponsor

18:15 Democratic party is terrible at picking fights and don’t like friction

19:00 Bernie Sanders AI data center moratorium reflects the public sentiment

19:45 Democrats are so heady on policy they let their politics suffer

21:00 There’s a movement of independent candidates, but winning matters

21:45 Independents are offering a different, working class first agenda

23:00 Democrats punish candidates who aren’t perfectly aligned on social issues

24:30 Bernie Sanders is stronger candidate in a general election than a primary

25:30 The right candidate could move 7% of the electorate from right to left

27:15 If Sanders were younger and could run in 2028, he’d likely win

28:15 Sanders has more credibility than AOC because he’s from rural state

29:00 Democrats need to fight a class based, economic justice campaign

31:15 How would you make changes at the DNC?

32:30 How should Democrats approach secondary races in MT & NE?

34:00 Younger voters are disillusioned with both parties, are independent minded

34:45 Independent does not mean centrist

35:45 State by state redistricting will eventually need national overhaul

37:30 Democrats “adult in the room” status has helped them in some places

38:45 Democrats have been viewed as the status quo party

39:30 Who is the heir apparent to Bernie?

40:00 Bernie respects the national appeal of AOC

41:45 Ro Khanna is incredibly smart and calculating

42:30 Politics has become an entertainment industry as much as policy

44:15 Voters want a disrupter with goals that are attainable

45:00 Lina Khan had a sense of imagination at the FTC

46:15 Mission driven disruption is associated with the progressive wing

47:15 Gavin Newsom has become the anti-Trump Democratic candidate

48:00 Newsom fighting the wealth tax is probably hurting himself with base

49:00 Rahm Emmanuel will struggle to overcome his political baggage

49:45 Democrats have surrendered on education as a national issue

50:30 Democrats should be offering year round schooling with new curriculum

51:15 Democrats should propose public service jobs with good pay & benefits

53:00 Nevada is the ideal first state for Democratic primary calendar

54:00 Vegas politics would orient Democrats to working class concerns

54:30 Michigan & NC should be in the first four for Democrats

55:45 Iowa & NH were battlegrounds because of first in nation status

58:30 DNC needs to give state parties money based on merit & metrics

59:45 Democrats have to find somewhere in sun belt to invest in

1:01:15 Mississippi could be best value in the south for Dems

1:02:00 Mississippi has a strong labor base to be courted

1:03:15 More debate between Talarico & Crockett would have been good for party

1:03:45 Talarico channeled Bernie’s message with a religious based framing

1:05:15 If Talarico or Platner win senate race, they’re serious 2028 candidates

1:06:30 Democratic voters always like an outsider in their presidential candidates

1:08:00 What is More Perfect Union and where can people find your work?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd delivers a sweeping analysis of how the Iran war is metastasizing into an economic, military, and constitutional crisis all at once — warning that the Strait of Hormuz, the most important waterway in the world through which roughly a fifth of global oil supply flows, is Iran's ultimate point of leverage and one Trump catastrophically failed to account for. He argues that Trump mistakenly assumed the Iranian regime would be as transactional as he is and would capitulate the way Venezuela did, but Iran has no intention of walking away from its ability to make the strait dangerous to navigate — which is all it takes to send energy markets into chaos, threaten the tourism and banking economies of Gulf states, and risk the economic collapse of nuclear-armed Pakistan through energy shortages. He calls Pete Hegseth a "Baghdad Bob"-style propagandist presiding over the administration's grotesque "memeification" of war, then turns to what he calls FCC Chairman Brendan Carr's declaration of war on press freedom — Carr threatened Saturday to revoke broadcast licenses over Iran war coverage the administration deems unfavorable, drawing immediate condemnation from Democrats, free speech groups, and even some Republicans who called it "authoritarian" and "unconstitutional." Chuck warns that while courts will likely block Carr's most extreme threats, the mere act of launching investigations creates a chilling effect not dissimilar to how broadcasting works in Russia.  He closes by acknowledging that the Iranian regime needs to go, but that Trump's disastrous decision to lift oil sanctions on Russia has only strengthened Moscow's position, and that the war has dramatically increased the likelihood of terrorist attacks against Americans 

Then, Faiz Shakir — Bernie Sanders' 2020 campaign manager, former DNC chair candidate, and executive director of the progressive media organization More Perfect Union — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a bracingly honest conversation about what's wrong with the Democratic Party and what it would take to fix it. Shakir diagnoses a party that is functionally leaderless, with its top figures stuck in a "play dead" mentality while the Democratic brand polls worse than the Republican brand even as Trump's corruption grows more brazen by the day. He argues that Trump — like Biden before him — is finger-wagging at voters on the economy rather than addressing affordability, and that Democrats are blowing the opportunity to capitalize because they're terrible at picking fights and allergic to friction. Shakir is particularly scathing on the party's relationship with big tech and corporate power: He holds up Bernie Sanders' AI data center moratorium as the kind of fight Democrats should be waging, and Lina Khan's FTC tenure as the model of mission-driven disruption.

The conversation then turns to the future of the party and how to build a lasting majority. Shakir argues that the right candidate could move 7% of the electorate from right to left, that if Sanders were younger he'd likely win in 2028, and that Sanders has more credibility than AOC because he represents a rural state — though he praises both AOC's national appeal and Ro Khanna's political intelligence. He insists Democrats need to fight a class-based economic justice campaign, stop punishing candidates who aren't perfectly aligned on social issues, and recognize that "independent" doesn't mean centrist — younger voters are disillusioned with both parties and hungry for a working-class-first agenda. Shakir offers a detailed vision for DNC reform: fund state parties based on merit and metrics, move Nevada to first on the primary calendar because Vegas politics would orient the party toward working-class concerns, add Michigan and North Carolina to the early window,and invest in sun belt opportunities He closes by noting that James Talarico channeled Bernie's message with a religious-based framing, and that Democratic voters always gravitate toward outsiders — the party just needs to let them run.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the creation of standardized time, answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment, and gives his advice for building your NCAA tournament bracket.

 Refresh your wardrobe with Quince. Go to https://Quince.com/chuck for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

05:30 The Iran War will impact nearly everything

06:15 Military, war has been a route but it’s become asymmetrical

07:00 The Strait of Hormuz is the most important waterway in the world

08:00 Trump mistakenly assumed Iranian regime would be transactional like him

09:15 Shutting the strait is Iran’s biggest point of deterrence

10:15 Shutting the strait can massively damage the world economy

11:00 Trump miscalculated Iran would capitulate like Venezuela

13:15 The strait is Iran’s leverage, they aren’t going to walk away from it

14:00 Trump talks a big game, but Iran can extract a huge price on the west

15:30 Pete Hegseth has become a “Baghdad Bob” style propagandist

16:45 Asymmetrical warfare is how America won the Revolutionary War

18:00 All Iran has to do is make the Strait of Hormuz dangerous to navigate

18:45 Reagan had to intervene in the Gulf in the 80s to secure shipping routes

19:30 Convoy protection missions rarely stay small

20:30 If keeping shipping lanes open is the goal, the timeline & operation expands

21:15 Gulf states has become tourism & banking hubs, that’s being threatened

22:30 War is both an economic and “image” blow to the gulf states

23:45 Energy shortages risk the economic collapse of nuclear armed Pakistan

24:45 Trump made a disastrous decision to lift oil sanctions on Russia

25:15 War in Iran is strengthening Russia’s position in the Ukraine war

26:00 Energy prices affect the entire economy. Will raise inflation in America

26:45 This war is a major economic gamble

27:45 FCC Chair declares war on freedom of the press

28:30 Carr threatens to pull broadcast licenses over unfavorable war coverage

29:30 Carr’s threats aren’t dissimilar to how broadcasting works in Russia

31:15 FCC just launching investigations can put pressure on networks

32:30 ABC settling with Trump was a massive mistake

33:45 Project 2025 proposed “broadcast regulation” similar to this

35:00 Administration’s “memeification” of war is gross & embarrassing

36:15 War has increased likelihood of terrorist attacks against American

36:45 American Jews & Muslims have had to spend millions on security

37:30 Administration hiding terrorism reports should scare us*

39:00 The courts will stop Brendan Carr from violating press freedom

40:00 Administration owes the people an explanation

40:45 The Iranian regime needs to go, but war has serious costs

47:30 Faiz Shakir joins the Chuck ToddCast

49:15 Democratic party seems leaderless

49:45 Would you run again for DNC chair?

51:15 Leaders of the party have a bit of a “play dead” mentality

52:00 Democratic brand is still in worse shape than Republican brand

53:15 Trump having billionaires at inauguration was foreshadowing

53:45 Trump’s corruption is incredibly brazen

54:45 It’s obvious Trump doesn’t care about affordability

55:45 Trump, like Biden, is finger wagging at voters on the economy

57:00 Vance sold himself as an anti-interventionalist populist

57:45 Vance has had to completely go against his political identity

58:30 Trump’s corruption has totally undermined Vance

1:00:00 Trump’s argument of "imminent threat” from Iran is nonsense

1:01:30 Chuck Schumer told his caucus to “suck it up” on crypto

1:03:00 The public is far ahead of politicians in being skeptical of AI

1:03:45 Very little is being offered by AI that would improve lives of working class

1:04:30 Every candidate in Illinois senate race basically has a big tech sponsor

1:05:45 Democratic party is terrible at picking fights and don’t like friction

1:06:30 Bernie Sanders AI data center moratorium reflects the public sentiment

1:07:15 Democrats are so heady on policy they let their politics suffer

1:08:30 There’s a movement of independent candidates, but winning matters

1:09:15 Independents are offering a different, working class first agenda

1:10:30 Democrats punish candidates who aren’t perfectly aligned on social issues

1:12:00 Bernie Sanders is stronger candidate in a general election than a primary

1:13:00 The right candidate could move 7% of the electorate from right to left

1:14:45 If Sanders were younger and could run in 2028, he’d likely win

1:15:45 Sanders has more credibility than AOC because he’s from rural state

1:16:30 Democrats need to fight a class based, economic justice campaign

1:18:45 How would you make changes at the DNC?

1:20:00 How should Democrats approach secondary races in MT & NE?

1:21:30 Younger voters are disillusioned with both parties, are independent minded

1:22:15 Independent does not mean centrist

1:23:15 State by state redistricting will eventually need national overhaul

1:25:00 Democrats “adult in the room” status has helped them in some places

1:26:15 Democrats have been viewed as the status quo party

1:27:00 Who is the heir apparent to Bernie?

1:27:30 Bernie respects the national appeal of AOC

1:29:15 Ro Khanna is incredibly smart and calculating

1:30:00 Politics has become an entertainment industry as much as policy

1:31:45 Voters want a disrupter with goals that are attainable

1:32:30 Lina Khan had a sense of imagination at the FTC

1:33:45 Mission driven disruption is associated with the progressive wing

1:34:45 Gavin Newsom has become the anti-Trump Democratic candidate

1:35:30 Newsom fighting the wealth tax is probably hurting himself with base

1:36:30 Rahm Emmanuel will struggle to overcome his political baggage

1:37:15 Democrats have surrendered on education as a national issue

1:38:00 Democrats should be offering year round schooling with new curriculum

1:38:45 Democrats should propose public service jobs with good pay & benefits

1:40:30 Nevada is the ideal first state for Democratic primary calendar

1:41:30 Vegas politics would orient Democrats to working class concerns

1:42:00 Michigan & NC should be in the first four for Democrats

1:43:15 Iowa & NH were battlegrounds because of first in nation status

1:46:00 DNC needs to give state parties money based on merit & metrics

1:47:15 Democrats have to find somewhere in sun belt to invest in

1:48:45 Mississippi could be best value in the south for Dems

1:49:30 Mississippi has a strong labor base to be courted

1:50:45 More debate between Talarico & Crockett would have been good for party

1:51:15 Talarico channeled Bernie’s message with a religious based framing

1:52:45 If Talarico or Platner win senate race, they’re serious 2028 candidates

1:54:00 Democratic voters always like an outsider in their presidential candidates

1:55:30 What is More Perfect Union and where can people find your work?

1:56:45 Illinois primary livestream with Decision Desk HQ & Chris Cillizza on Tuesday

1:58:00 ToddCast Time Machine - When time back standardized

1:58:45 Standard Time Act passed by Congress on March 19, 1918

1:59:30 Local time standards were a problem with development of railroads

2:00:15 Coordinating trains wasn’t just difficult, it was dangerous

2:00:45 Sanford Fleming proposed dividing globe into timezones

2:01:15 Railroads imposed standardized times before government did

2:02:45 Train crash near Tipton, Ohio showed issues with timekeeping

2:04:00 Railroad safety become dependant on pocketwatches

2:04:45 Daylight Saving Time is adopted during World War I

2:05:30 World War required standardized time to coordinate

2:06:00 Congress formalized standard time after entering World War I

2:07:00 Daylight savings time was eliminated, but returns in World War II

2:07:30 Congress passes the Uniform Time Act in 1966

2:08:15 States can opt out of the Uniform Time Act

2:09:45 World clocks are now synchronized via Atomic clock

2:10:45 Ask Chuck

2:11:00 Are the Democrats walking into a trap by elevating Graham Platner?

2:18:00 The The Perfect Neighbor told a gripping story via bodycam footage

2:20:45 How do you feel about Donald Trump claiming credit for you becoming independent?

2:25:45 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament bracket advice

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Fiona Hill — who served on the National Security Council under three presidents and became a household name during Trump's first impeachment — joins the Chuck ToddCast for a deeply alarming assessment of the Iran war now entering its second week, with Operation Epic Fury having metastasized into a multi-front conflict spanning nine countries, oil prices surging past $100 a barrel, and hundreds of thousands of travelers stranded across the Middle East. Hill dismantles the geopolitical chessboard with surgical precision, explaining that while there is no formal alliance between Russia and Iran and that the relationship is deeply transactional, with Iran having provided Russia with Shahed drones and helped build a drone factory. She argues that China is letting the U.S. "rope-a-dope" itself, sitting back alongside Russia to watch America bleed resources and credibility in yet another Middle Eastern quagmire. She flags the glaring double standard in the administration's diplomacy: envoy Steve Witkoff refused to take the Iranians at their word during nuclear negotiations in Geneva but accepted Russian assurances at face value.

The conversation turns existential as Hill warns that Trump's adventurism — which never faced serious consequences through Venezuela or the June 2025 strikes that made Iran look like a paper tiger — has now collided with reality. Trump saw the opportunity to kill Khamenei and took it, hoping for either a popular uprising or a pliant successor, but none of those hopes have materialized. Hill calls it an Afghanistan-and-Iraq-level jam with even less global credibility.. They raise the chilling question of whether Xi Jinping might prioritize seizing Taiwan while America is overextended, observes that NORAD doesn't function without Canada and the Nordic countries that Trump has alienated, warns that the damage to America's reputation will last decades, and notes that individual U.S. states are already setting up their own diplomatic representation with foreign countries to fill the vacuum. They close with a striking contrast: unlike Russians, Americans can still vote their way out of tyranny — but the window in which that remains true may be narrowing, as we are likely entering a post-American empire period.

 Refresh your wardrobe with Quince. Go to https://Quince.com/chuck for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Fiona Hill joins the Chuck ToddCast

01:15 There is no formal alliance between Russia and Iran

02:00 Historically, Russia and Iran clashed over territory

03:45 Iran provided Russia with Shahed drones & helped build factory

04:30 Trump views his relationship with Russia & Putin in a vacuum

05:30 Iran’s relationship with China & Russia is very transactional

06:15 Iran sees itself as a civilization, not just a country

08:00 China is letting the U.S. “rope a dope” itself

09:15 China doesn’t do favors without a cost

10:00 Witkoff didn’t take Iranians at their word but did with Russia

10:30 China & Russia are sitting back and watching what happens in Iran

11:30 Special military operations often become quagmires

12:45 Trump hasn’t thought about the knock-on consequences in Iran

15:00 Administration thinks they can figure it out as they go

15:45 Trump’s adventurism never had serious consequences until now

17:30 9/11 shaped the frame for American thinking for 25 years

18:30 Do you buy that MBS pushed Trump into striking Iran?

19:30 The Chinese didn’t see unintended effects of war in Ukraine

20:30 Russia has 20x casualty rate in Ukraine that USSR had in Afghanistan

22:30 The Israelis are clear that they want regime change

22:45 Outside of eliminating the nuclear program… What's the rest of our aim?

24:15 Without regime change, Iranian and Venezuelan people will turn on Trump

25:15 There’s a large Iranian population is many countries

25:45 Trump is in a Afghanistan/Iraq level jam with no plan

26:30 Gutting of national security council effects on Trump’s planning

27:45 We’ve lost grip of our political system, congress has abdicated

29:00 High oil prices could be a boon to Russia, but shipping is an issue

31:15 Putin doesn’t want to end the war in Ukraine unless its on his terms

32:00 Ukraine has been an incredibly tough fighting force

32:45 The rich & powerful forget that the other 8 billion people have agency

34:15 Ukraine won’t have a peace imposed on it by outsiders

35:00 Trump assumes everyone else is as transactional as he is

36:00 Khamenei is a religious leader, his killing has religious implications

39:00 Asymmetrical war feels unwinnable

41:15 The damage to America’s reputation in the world will last decades

42:15 NORAD doesn’t work without Canada & Nordic countries

44:45 How can a future president try to fix the damage with allies?

45:45 Individual states are setting up representation with foreign countries

47:45 If you’re Xi, do you prioritize seizing Taiwan while Trump’s in office?

49:30 We’re likely in a post-American empire period

50:15 Is there any heir apparent to Putin?

52:30 Next leader of Russia will likely keep the same system in place

54:00 Unlike Russians, Americans can still vote their way out of tyranny

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens with a grim inventory of an administration besieged on every front as the Iran war enters its twelfth day with no exit strategy in sight. He then pivots to the SAVE Act — the Republican voting bill that has 50 Senate votes but faces a filibuster John Thune admits he likely can't break. He walks through the details that go well beyond simple voter ID: the bill requires documentary proof of citizenship to register, treats women who change their name through marriage as first-time voters, and Trump is demanding additions including a near-total ban on mail-in voting — turning what polls show is an 80%-popular concept into a toxic package that could disenfranchise millions. He notes that John Cornyn flipped his filibuster position to chase Trump's Texas endorsement, warns that if Republicans nuke the filibuster and Democrats later win the Senate they won't restore it, and argues that Republicans are essentially writing legislation to make Trump's false fraud claims real — while Trump is already setting up the SAVE Act's inevitable failure as his preemptive excuse for midterm losses that have nothing to do with voting rules and everything to do with an unpopular war, a tanking economy, and a completely unserious leader running the Pentagon. Ultimately, he argues that partisan changes to voting rule destroy trust in democracy, whether it be the SAVE Act, or Democrats efforts to pass HR1.

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and celebrates the start of March Madness.

 Refresh your wardrobe with Quince. Go to https://Quince.com/chuck for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

04:30 There’s no easy way for Trump to get out of Iran

05:30 It’s become clear US responsible for bombing Iranian school

06:15 FBI warns California law enforcement of threat of Iranian drone strikes

07:15 The fallout from the war is complicated & Trump can’t just turn it off

08:30 Drone attack that killed US soldiers far more serious than initially reported

09:15 Republicans in congress are demoralized & don’t know what to run on

10:45 Pentagon bars press for publishing “unflattering” photos of Pete Hegseth

12:00 We have a serious war and a completely unserious leader of the Pentagon

12:45 Republican senators knew Hegseth was unqualified & confirmed him anyway

14:15 It’s important to explain the details of the Republican SAVE Act

15:00 John Cornyn flipped position on the filibuster to try to earn Trump endorsement

15:30 Republicans likely don’t have the votes to kill the filibuster

16:15 Contrasting and comparing Democrats HR1 vs Republicans SAVE Act

18:15 SAVE Act requires proof of citizenship to vote

19:00 Trump wants a total ban on mail in voting and all voting on one day

20:00 If GOP kills filibuster & Dems win senate, Dems won’t restore it

20:45 If passed in a partisan vote, SAVE Act would delegitimize democracy

21:45 If rules change based on who’s in power, the public will lose faith in process

23:30 We’re seeing a collision of two partisan visions over who gets to vote

24:30 SAVE Act makes voter registration a “show your papers” event

25:30 There’s a massive gap between bill passed in house & what Trump wants

26:00 Trump is demanding a bill loaded with culture war items

27:30 If Republicans jam through the SAVE Act, it could juice Democratic turnout

29:00 Voter ID isn’t controversial with the public

29:45 There’s 80% support for proof of citizenship when registering to vote

30:15 Republicans believe it should be harder to vote, Dems think it should be easier

31:30 Trump is taking popular ideas and packaging them in a bill that is toxic

32:30 Stability in a democracy doesn’t come from a 51% majority

33:45 34k people in Arizona were barred from state elections, but had federal carve out

35:00 Almost no voter fraud has actually been found

36:00 If you change name or get married, SAVE Act treats you as first time voter

37:30 America already makes life harder on women, SAVE Act makes it worse

38:15 The SAVE Act goes WELL beyond voter ID

39:00 Republicans are writing a bill to make Trump’s bullshit real

39:45 Trump will blame failure to pass SAVE Act for election losses in midterms

41:00 SAVE Act would disenfranchise or add barriers for millions of voters

42:00 Individual citizens have no constitutional right to vote

42:45 State constitutions provide voting guarantees, SAVE Act contradicts that

44:15 Changes to voting rules need bipartisan public consensus

50:00 Ask Chuck

50:15 How is the psyche of the American people able to handle constant crisis?

55:30 Are the war and Epstein files just distracting from importance of midterms?

59:00 Have larger sums of money started to become irrelevant in elections?

1:03:00 At what point does fundraising advantage stop matter?

1:07:15 Chances of false flag blamed on Iran to provide pretext to mess with elections?

1:13:00 Thanks for giving me hope while feeling like we’re living through fall of Rome

1:16:30 How can a future president reverse course on tariffs?

1:19:00 Thoughts on March Madness

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens with a grim inventory of an administration besieged on every front as the Iran war enters its twelfth day with no exit strategy in sight. He then pivots to the SAVE Act — the Republican voting bill that has 50 Senate votes but faces a filibuster John Thune admits he likely can't break. He walks through the details that go well beyond simple voter ID: the bill requires documentary proof of citizenship to register, treats women who change their name through marriage as first-time voters, and Trump is demanding additions including a near-total ban on mail-in voting — turning what polls show is an 80%-popular concept into a toxic package that could disenfranchise millions. He notes that John Cornyn flipped his filibuster position to chase Trump's Texas endorsement, warns that if Republicans nuke the filibuster and Democrats later win the Senate they won't restore it, and argues that Republicans are essentially writing legislation to make Trump's false fraud claims real — while Trump is already setting up the SAVE Act's inevitable failure as his preemptive excuse for midterm losses that have nothing to do with voting rules and everything to do with an unpopular war, a tanking economy, and a completely unserious leader running the Pentagon. Ultimately, he argues that partisan changes to voting rule destroy trust in democracy, whether it be the SAVE Act, or Democrats efforts to pass HR1.

Then, Fiona Hill — who served on the National Security Council under three presidents and became a household name during Trump's first impeachment — joins the Chuck ToddCast for a deeply alarming assessment of the Iran war now entering its second week, with Operation Epic Fury having metastasized into a multi-front conflict spanning nine countries, oil prices surging past $100 a barrel, and hundreds of thousands of travelers stranded across the Middle East. Hill dismantles the geopolitical chessboard with surgical precision, explaining that while there is no formal alliance between Russia and Iran and that the relationship is deeply transactional, with Iran having provided Russia with Shahed drones and helped build a drone factory. She argues that China is letting the U.S. "rope-a-dope" itself, sitting back alongside Russia to watch America bleed resources and credibility in yet another Middle Eastern quagmire. She flags the glaring double standard in the administration's diplomacy: envoy Steve Witkoff refused to take the Iranians at their word during nuclear negotiations in Geneva but accepted Russian assurances at face value.

The conversation turns existential as Hill warns that Trump's adventurism — which never faced serious consequences through Venezuela or the June 2025 strikes that made Iran look like a paper tiger — has now collided with reality. Trump saw the opportunity to kill Khamenei and took it, hoping for either a popular uprising or a pliant successor, but none of those hopes have materialized. Hill calls it an Afghanistan-and-Iraq-level jam with even less global credibility.. They raise the chilling question of whether Xi Jinping might prioritize seizing Taiwan while America is overextended, observes that NORAD doesn't function without Canada and the Nordic countries that Trump has alienated, warns that the damage to America's reputation will last decades, and notes that individual U.S. states are already setting up their own diplomatic representation with foreign countries to fill the vacuum. They close with a striking contrast: unlike Russians, Americans can still vote their way out of tyranny — but the window in which that remains true may be narrowing, as we are likely entering a post-American empire period.

Finally, he answers listeners’ question in the “Ask Chuck” segment and celebrates the start of March Madness.

 Refresh your wardrobe with Quince. Go to https://Quince.com/chuck for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. 

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

04:30 There’s no easy way for Trump to get out of Iran

05:30 It’s become clear US responsible for bombing Iranian school

06:15 FBI warns California law enforcement of threat of Iranian drone strikes

07:15 The fallout from the war is complicated & Trump can’t just turn it off

08:30 Drone attack that killed US soldiers far more serious than initially reported

09:15 Republicans in congress are demoralized & don’t know what to run on

10:45 Pentagon bars press for publishing “unflattering” photos of Pete Hegseth

12:00 We have a serious war and a completely unserious leader of the Pentagon

12:45 Republican senators knew Hegseth was unqualified & confirmed him anyway

14:15 It’s important to explain the details of the Republican SAVE Act

15:00 John Cornyn flipped position on the filibuster to try to earn Trump endorsement

15:30 Republicans likely don’t have the votes to kill the filibuster

16:15 Contrasting and comparing Democrats HR1 vs Republicans SAVE Act

18:15 SAVE Act requires proof of citizenship to vote

19:00 Trump wants a total ban on mail in voting and all voting on one day

20:00 If GOP kills filibuster & Dems win senate, Dems won’t restore it

20:45 If passed in a partisan vote, SAVE Act would delegitimize democracy

21:45 If rules change based on who’s in power, the public will lose faith in process

23:30 We’re seeing a collision of two partisan visions over who gets to vote

24:30 SAVE Act makes voter registration a “show your papers” event

25:30 There’s a massive gap between bill passed in house & what Trump wants

26:00 Trump is demanding a bill loaded with culture war items

27:30 If Republicans jam through the SAVE Act, it could juice Democratic turnout

29:00 Voter ID isn’t controversial with the public

29:45 There’s 80% support for proof of citizenship when registering to vote

30:15 Republicans believe it should be harder to vote, Dems think it should be easier

31:30 Trump is taking popular ideas and packaging them in a bill that is toxic

32:30 Stability in a democracy doesn’t come from a 51% majority

33:45 34k people in Arizona were barred from state elections, but had federal carve out

35:00 Almost no voter fraud has actually been found

36:00 If you change name or get married, SAVE Act treats you as first time voter

37:30 America already makes life harder on women, SAVE Act makes it worse

38:15 The SAVE Act goes WELL beyond voter ID

39:00 Republicans are writing a bill to make Trump’s bullshit real

39:45 Trump will blame failure to pass SAVE Act for election losses in midterms

41:00 SAVE Act would disenfranchise or add barriers for millions of voters

42:00 Individual citizens have no constitutional right to vote

42:45 State constitutions provide voting guarantees, SAVE Act contradicts that

44:15 Changes to voting rules need bipartisan public consensus

50:15 Fiona Hill joins the Chuck ToddCast

51:30 There is no formal alliance between Russia and Iran

52:15 Historically, Russia and Iran clashed over territory

54:00 Iran provided Russia with Shahed drones & helped build factory

54:45 Trump views his relationship with Russia & Putin in a vacuum

55:45 Iran’s relationship with China & Russia is very transactional

56:30 Iran sees itself as a civilization, not just a country

58:15 China is letting the U.S. “rope a dope” itself

59:30 China doesn’t do favors without a cost

1:00:15 Witkoff didn’t take Iranians at their word but did with Russia

1:00:45 China & Russia are sitting back and watching what happens in Iran

1:01:45 Special military operations often become quagmires

1:03:00 Trump hasn’t thought about the knock-on consequences in Iran

1:05:15 Administration thinks they can figure it out as they go

1:06:00 Trump’s adventurism never had serious consequences until now

1:07:45 9/11 shaped the frame for American thinking for 25 years

1:08:45 Do you buy that MBS pushed Trump into striking Iran?

1:09:45 The Chinese didn’t see unintended effects of war in Ukraine

1:10:45 Russia has 20x casualty rate in Ukraine that USSR had in Afghanistan

1:12:45 The Israelis are clear that they want regime change

1:13:00 Outside of eliminating the nuclear program… What's the rest of our aim?

1:14:30 Without regime change, Iranian and Venezuelan people will turn on Trump

1:15:30 There’s a large Iranian population is many countries

1:16:00 Trump is in a Afghanistan/Iraq level jam with no plan

1:16:45 Gutting of national security council effects on Trump’s planning

1:18:00 We’ve lost grip of our political system, congress has abdicated

1:19:15 High oil prices could be a boon to Russia, but shipping is an issue

1:21:30 Putin doesn’t want to end the war in Ukraine unless its on his terms

1:22:15 Ukraine has been an incredibly tough fighting force

1:23:00 The rich & powerful forget that the other 8 billion people have agency

1:24:30 Ukraine won’t have a peace imposed on it by outsiders

1:25:15 Trump assumes everyone else is as transactional as he is

1:26:15 Khamenei is a religious leader, his killing has religious implications

1:29:15 Asymmetrical war feels unwinnable

1:31:30 The damage to America’s reputation in the world will last decades

1:32:30 NORAD doesn’t work without Canada & Nordic countries

1:35:00 How can a future president try to fix the damage with allies?

1:36:00 Individual states are setting up representation with foreign countries

1:38:00 If you’re Xi, do you prioritize seizing Taiwan while Trump’s in office?

1:39:45 We’re likely in a post-American empire period

1:40:30 Is there any heir apparent to Putin?

1:42:45 Next leader of Russia will likely keep the same system in place

1:44:15 Unlike Russians, Americans can still vote their way out of tyranny

1:48:30 Across the country there’s serious frustration with federal politics

1:50:00 Ask Chuck

1:50:15 How is the psyche of the American people able to handle constant crisis?

1:55:30 Are the war and Epstein files just distracting from importance of midterms?

1:59:00 Have larger sums of money started to become irrelevant in elections?

2:03:00 At what point does fundraising advantage stop matter?

2:07:15 Chances of false flag blamed on Iran to provide pretext to mess with elections?

2:13:00 Thanks for giving me hope while feeling like we’re living through fall of Rome

2:16:30 How can a future president reverse course on tariffs?

2:19:00 Thoughts on March Madness

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd surveys a political landscape where multiple crises are converging on the Trump administration simultaneously — and none of them are going well. The Iran war, which Chuck reiterates is a war of choice, appears to be devouring Trump's presidency: the administration burned through nearly $6 billion in munitions in just two days, is sending contradictory messages of reassurance and escalation that appear designed to manipulate markets, and seems to be operating entirely by the seat of its pants. He warns that asymmetric warfare has never gone well for the United States, that energy markets are in turmoil as Iran deliberately tries to inflict economic pain, that the threat of stagflation and energy shortages is very real, and that Trump's threat to use the Fed to shape oil markets has alarmed economists. 

He argues that if Trump could undo the war he would — but this won't be Venezuela 2.0, because there's no opposition on the ground to coordinate with, you can't change a regime without boots on the ground that Trump won't commit, and if the regime simply survives, that counts as victory for Iran. Meanwhile, Trump naively buys Putin's claim that Russia isn't helping Iran with targeting, and that new polling shows a majority of Americans oppose the war — with MAGA influencers notably against it even as older rank-and-file supporters stick with Trump. Beyond Iran, Chuck  hits the Ticketmaster settlement as proof that Trump talks a big populist game but the lobbyists always win, warns that a partial DHS shutdown risks snarling air travel and punishing the flying public while ICE has already been funded, and cautions Democrats not to overplay their hand on the shutdown.

Then, John Adams, editor of the Montana Free Press, joins the Chuck Toddcast to make the case that local journalism has been in crisis — and that saving it might be one of the most important things Americans can do for their democracy. Adams is on the show to promote Local News Day on April 9th, a nationwide effort involving 700 local newsrooms aimed not at fundraising but at spreading awareness. He traces the origin story of the Montana Free Press back to his appearance in the documentary "Dark Money", a story about outside money quietly trying to buy Montana politics at the local level with zero disclosure — and the journalists best positioned to expose it were losing their jobs. Adams argues the economics of local news changed drastically as advertising revenue collapsed and audiences became hypnotized by social media and smartphones, but that the need and appetite for local reporting never went away.

The conversation turns to the deeper consequences of local news deserts: the loss of trusted community voices created a vacuum that bred distrust in the national press, because people no longer had local "character references" — journalists they knew and saw at the grocery store — to anchor their understanding of how media works. Adams warns that the rise of AI-generated misinformation makes reliable local sources more important than ever, noting that while younger people tend to be savvier at spotting junk online, older generations are particularly vulnerable. They close by noting that strong local news doesn't just serve democracy — it helps local businesses target customers, creating an economic ecosystem that benefits everyone — and that journalism ultimately has to reach enough people to really matter, which is exactly what Local News Day at localnewsday.org is designed to help make possible.

Finally, on the day of the Mississippi primaries, Chuck gives his ToddCast Top 5 All-Time statewide races in Mississippi and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Go to  https://zbiotics.com/CHUCKTODDCAST and use CHUCKTODDCAST at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.”

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

 Refresh your wardrobe with Quince. Go to https://Quince.com/chuck for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. 

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.

American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or https://apply.americanfinancing.net/thechucktoddcast

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

00:30 Despite runoff, Dems shouldn’t get hopes up for MTG’s district

01:30 Bennie Thompson survives primary challenge in Mississippi

07:15 War of choice in Iran could devour Trump’s presidency

08:00 Administration messaging appears to be manipulating markets

09:30 We got both a message of reassurance and escalation on Monday

10:30 Administration seems to be operating by the seat of their pants

12:00 Administration has eroded trust in institutions for years

13:00 Eventually markets will stop reacting to government statements

13:30 Administration burned through nearly $6B in munitions in two days

14:30 Asymmetric warfare has never gone well for the United States

15:15 Energy markets are in turmoil, Iran wants to create economic pain

16:00 Threat of stagflation & energy shortages are very real

16:45 Trump threatens to use the fed to shape oil markets, alarming economists

17:30 Partial shutdown of DHS agents risks snarling air travel

18:30 When do Dems declare victory on partial shutdown? Noem was fired

19:45 ICE has already been funded. Shutdown punishes the flying public

20:30 Democrats need to be careful not to overplay their hand in shutdown

21:00 If Trump could undo the war, he would. It won’t be Venezuela 2.0

22:15 We’ve always paid to rebuild countries we’ve bombed

23:00 If the regime survives, that’s victory for Iran

24:15 Can’t change regime without boots on the ground, which Trump won’t do

25:15 There’s no opposition on the ground to coordinate with

26:00 Trump buys story from Putin that Russia isn’t assisting Iran w/targeting

26:45 U.S. using up munitions headed to Ukraine is best case for Russia

28:00 DOJ agrees to incredibly friendly settlement with Ticketmaster

28:45 Live Nation lobbyists went straight to Trump, then deal is cut

29:15 Trump talks a big game on populism, but the lobbyists always win

30:45 Young independents hate corporate power & Trump sides with corporations

31:30 New polling shows majority of Americans are against war with Iran

32:15 Older voters continue to be strongest supporters of Trump & war

33:00 MAGA influencers are against war, but rank & file support Trump

42:30 John Adams (Montana Free Press) joins the Chuck ToddCast

43:15 The importance of local news & purpose of Local News Day, April 9th

45:45 Why create Local News Day?

46:45 The crisis with local news isn’t new, been happening for years

48:00 It’s easier to get international news than news from your community

49:00 The need and appetite for local news has never gone away

50:15 Local news has become en vogue like a local craft beer

52:15 People embrace their local identity

54:45 Origin story of the Montana Free Press

55:15 “Dark Money” documentary about fight against Montana copper barons

57:30 Big outside money was trying to buy Montana politics at the local level

59:45 None of the outside money was disclosed

1:00:30 John lost his reporting job during the 2015 legislative session

1:02:30 Three of the most experienced local journalists were jobless

1:03:00 MFP founded on principle that local journalism is essential as a nonprofit

1:04:45 Economics of local news changed drastically, made newspapers expensive

1:06:30 Audiences are highly distracted by social media & smartphones

1:08:00 We need good new sources of information to combat misinfo from AI

1:09:15 Younger people are savvier online, older generations struggle with AI

1:11:00 It’s easier to trust local news sources because they’re in your community

1:11:45 Journalists have to almost “sell” their info for people to see it

1:14:00 It’s important to report on what your audience cares about

1:15:30 AP reporter in Montana was attacked and then the reporter was doxxed

1:17:45 Loss of local news character references created distrust in national press

1:19:00 Importance of local “service journalism”

1:22:30 Recreating the equivalent of morning drive news radio as a podcast

1:23:15 Using google trends questions to help inform your journalism

1:24:30 Algorithms only give people what they want, not what they need to know

1:25:15 Local news at its best reflects what the community cares about

1:26:15 Localnewsday.org is where people can find ways to help & connect

1:28:00 The better local news does, the better local businesses can target customers

1:29:00 700 local newsrooms are taking part in Local News Day

1:30:00 Goal of Local News Day isn’t to raise money, it’s to spread awareness

1:33:00 Journalism has to reach enough people to really matter

1:35:00 Take action on April 9th to support local news

1:35:30 ToddCast Top 5 All-Time Mississippi statewide campaigns

1:40:00 #1 1959 gubernatorial

1:42:00 #2 1978 senate race

1:43:30 #3 1978 gubernatorial

1:45:00 #4 1999 gubernatorial

1:47:00 #5 2014 senate Republican primary

1:49:30 Honorable mentions

1:52:30 Ask Chuck

1:52:45 Do you have a Top 5 list coming for New Jersey?

1:56:00 How do we keep getting into wars without declaration from congress?

1:59:30 What will it take for the U.S. to rebuild trust on the world stage?

2:03:00 Will abortion become an issue in 2028 or has Dobbs taken it off the table?

2:06:30 Should Democrats break norms to prevent authoritarianism?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd surveys a political landscape where multiple crises are converging on the Trump administration simultaneously — and none of them are going well. The Iran war, which Chuck reiterates is a war of choice, appears to be devouring Trump's presidency: the administration burned through nearly $6 billion in munitions in just two days, is sending contradictory messages of reassurance and escalation that appear designed to manipulate markets, and seems to be operating entirely by the seat of its pants. He warns that asymmetric warfare has never gone well for the United States, that energy markets are in turmoil as Iran deliberately tries to inflict economic pain, that the threat of stagflation and energy shortages is very real, and that Trump's threat to use the Fed to shape oil markets has alarmed economists. 

He argues that if Trump could undo the war he would — but this won't be Venezuela 2.0, because there's no opposition on the ground to coordinate with, you can't change a regime without boots on the ground that Trump won't commit, and if the regime simply survives, that counts as victory for Iran. Meanwhile, Trump naively buys Putin's claim that Russia isn't helping Iran with targeting, and that new polling shows a majority of Americans oppose the war — with MAGA influencers notably against it even as older rank-and-file supporters stick with Trump. Beyond Iran, Chuck hits the Ticketmaster settlement as proof that Trump talks a big populist game but the lobbyists always win, warns that a partial DHS shutdown risks snarling air travel and punishing the flying public while ICE has already been funded, and cautions Democrats not to overplay their hand on the shutdown.

Finally, on the day of the Mississippi primaries, Chuck gives his ToddCast Top 5 All-Time statewide races in Mississippi and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Go to  https://zbiotics.com/CHUCKTODDCAST and use CHUCKTODDCAST at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.”

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

 Refresh your wardrobe with Quince. Go to https://Quince.com/chuck for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. 

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.

American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or https://apply.americanfinancing.net/thechucktoddcast

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

00:30 Despite runoff, Dems shouldn’t get hopes up for MTG’s district

01:30 Bennie Thompson survives primary challenge in Mississippi

07:15 War of choice in Iran could devour Trump’s presidency

08:00 Administration messaging appears to be manipulating markets

09:30 We got both a message of reassurance and escalation on Monday

10:30 Administration seems to be operating by the seat of their pants

12:00 Administration has eroded trust in institutions for years

13:00 Eventually markets will stop reacting to government statements

13:30 Administration burned through nearly $6B in munitions in two days

14:30 Asymmetric warfare has never gone well for the United States

15:15 Energy markets are in turmoil, Iran wants to create economic pain

16:00 Threat of stagflation & energy shortages are very real

16:45 Trump threatens to use the fed to shape oil markets, alarming economists

17:30 Partial shutdown of DHS agents risks snarling air travel

18:30 When do Dems declare victory on partial shutdown? Noem was fired

19:45 ICE has already been funded. Shutdown punishes the flying public

20:30 Democrats need to be careful not to overplay their hand in shutdown

21:00 If Trump could undo the war, he would. It won’t be Venezuela 2.0

22:15 We’ve always paid to rebuild countries we’ve bombed

23:00 If the regime survives, that’s victory for Iran

24:15 Can’t change regime without boots on the ground, which Trump won’t do

25:15 There’s no opposition on the ground to coordinate with

26:00 Trump buys story from Putin that Russia isn’t assisting Iran w/targeting

26:45 U.S. using up munitions headed to Ukraine is best case for Russia

28:00 DOJ agrees to incredibly friendly settlement with Ticketmaster

28:45 Live Nation lobbyists went straight to Trump, then deal is cut

29:15 Trump talks a big game on populism, but the lobbyists always win

30:45 Young independents hate corporate power & Trump sides with corporations

31:30 New polling shows majority of Americans are against war with Iran

32:15 Older voters continue to be strongest supporters of Trump & war

33:00 MAGA influencers are against war, but rank & file support Trump

37:45 Take action on April 9th to support local news

38:15 ToddCast Top 5 All-Time Mississippi statewide campaigns

42:45 #1 1959 gubernatorial

44:45 #2 1978 senate race

46:15 #3 1978 gubernatorial

47:45 #4 1999 gubernatorial

49:45 #5 2014 senate Republican primary

52:15 Honorable mentions

55:15 Ask Chuck

55:30 Do you have a Top 5 list coming for New Jersey?

58:45 How do we keep getting into wars without declaration from congress?

1:02:15 What will it take for the U.S. to rebuild trust on the world stage?

1:05:45 Will abortion become an issue in 2028 or has Dobbs taken it off the table?

1:09:15 Should Democrats break norms to prevent authoritarianism?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Interview Only w/ John Adams - Bringing Local News Back From The Brink

John Adams, editor of the Montana Free Press, joins the Chuck Toddcast to make the case that local journalism has been in crisis — and that saving it might be one of the most important things Americans can do for their democracy. Adams is on the show to promote Local News Day on April 9th, a nationwide effort involving 700 local newsrooms aimed not at fundraising but at spreading awareness. He traces the origin story of the Montana Free Press back to his appearance in the documentary "Dark Money", a story about outside money quietly trying to buy Montana politics at the local level with zero disclosure — and the journalists best positioned to expose it were losing their jobs. Adams argues the economics of local news changed drastically as advertising revenue collapsed and audiences became hypnotized by social media and smartphones, but that the need and appetite for local reporting never went away.

The conversation turns to the deeper consequences of local news deserts: the loss of trusted community voices created a vacuum that bred distrust in the national press, because people no longer had local "character references" — journalists they knew and saw at the grocery store — to anchor their understanding of how media works. Adams warns that the rise of AI-generated misinformation makes reliable local sources more important than ever, noting that while younger people tend to be savvier at spotting junk online, older generations are particularly vulnerable. They close by noting that strong local news doesn't just serve democracy — it helps local businesses target customers, creating an economic ecosystem that benefits everyone — and that journalism ultimately has to reach enough people to really matter, which is exactly what Local News Day at localnewsday.org is designed to help make possible.

Go to  https://zbiotics.com/CHUCKTODDCAST and use CHUCKTODDCAST at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.”

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

 Refresh your wardrobe with Quince. Go to https://Quince.com/chuck for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. 

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.

American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or https://apply.americanfinancing.net/thechucktoddcast

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 John Adams (Montana Free Press) joins the Chuck ToddCast

00:45 The importance of local news & purpose of Local News Day, April 9th

03:15 Why create Local News Day?

04:15 The crisis with local news isn’t new, been happening for years

05:30 It’s easier to get international news than news from your community

06:30 The need and appetite for local news has never gone away

07:45 Local news has become en vogue like a local craft beer

09:45 People embrace their local identity

12:15 Origin story of the Montana Free Press

12:45 “Dark Money” documentary about fight against Montana copper barons

15:00 Big outside money was trying to buy Montana politics at the local level

17:15 None of the outside money was disclosed

18:00 John lost his reporting job during the 2015 legislative session

20:00 Three of the most experienced local journalists were jobless

20:30 MFP founded on principle that local journalism is essential as a nonprofit

22:15 Economics of local news changed drastically, made newspapers expensive

24:00 Audiences are highly distracted by social media & smartphones

25:30 We need good new sources of information to combat misinfo from AI

26:45 Younger people are savvier online, older generations struggle with AI

28:30 It’s easier to trust local news sources because they’re in your community

29:15 Journalists have to almost “sell” their info for people to see it

31:30 It’s important to report on what your audience cares about

33:00 AP reporter in Montana was attacked and then the reporter was doxxed

35:15 Loss of local news character references created distrust in national press

36:30 Importance of local “service journalism”

40:00 Recreating the equivalent of morning drive news radio as a podcast

40:45 Using google trends questions to help inform your journalism

42:00 Algorithms only give people what they want, not what they need to know

42:45 Local news at its best reflects what the community cares about

43:45 Localnewsday.org is where people can find ways to help & connect

45:30 The better local news does, the better local businesses can target customers

46:30 700 local newsrooms are taking part in Local News Day

47:30 Goal of Local News Day isn’t to raise money, it’s to spread awareness

50:30 Journalism has to reach enough people to really matter

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens the episode with a blunt assessment: it's starting to feel like the beginning of the end of Donald Trump's presidency. From an open-ended war in Iran to a cratering stock market, Trump finds himself sinking deeper into what Chuck calls "presidential quicksand," with every show of strength only revealing more weakness. Chuck breaks down the staggering early costs of the Iran conflict — over 1,000 casualties and $6 billion spent in just one week — and asks the question no one in Washington seems willing to answer: does anyone actually have an exit strategy? On the economy, the latest jobs report is sending ominous signals. With slow growth, rising prices, and tariff uncertainty dominating the economic discourse, Chuck makes the case that the swing voters who put Trump back in the White House for his perceived economic expertise are the first ones who'll walk away when their wallets take the hit. Corporate America is also starting to find its backbone. From Anthropic refusing to strip safety guardrails to Netflix walking away from a bad deal, Chuck sees a telling pattern: companies are pushing back on a president who looks weak.

Legendary documentarian Ken Burns joins the Chuck Toddcast for a sweeping conversation about American history, the craft of telling it honestly, and why historical perspective has never mattered more than it does right now. Burns addresses head-on the criticism that his work is "woke," arguing that his documentaries have a perspective but it's not left versus right — he wants to call balls and strikes, and the truth shouldn't be something people fear. He offers a striking defense of nuance, noting that the Republican Party has been the most successful political party on earth and that his life's work has been about making films about both the U.S. and "us" — the complicated, contradictory people who built and continue to shape the country. Burns discusses his latest project on the American Revolution, which he insists he didn't intentionally time to the 250th anniversary, and reveals he's also working on a film about Reconstruction and potentially a documentary on the Cold War. He walks through his rigorous process for evaluating source material, the challenge of needing great actors to bring the founders to life, and how those founders were obsessively focused on virtue — creating something genuinely new in human history while writing a Constitution brilliant enough to endure centuries but unable to foresee Congress voluntarily abdicating its own power.

The conversation takes a fascinating philosophical turn as they explore the recurring patterns of American history: the manufacture of fear as a tool for authoritarians, the repeated failure of using government to force social change, and the way religion has been wielded as a cudgel by governments despite the founders being explicitly against a national religion. Burns offers a revealing window into his methodology, explaining that you need 25 to 30 years of distance before you can responsibly cover a historical subject, and that Trump's presidency has effectively constipated the scholarship on the Obama era because the two will be forever intertwined in history. He notes that views on Vietnam's legacy shifted vastly over decades, and that the passage of time is essential for triangulating toward truth — take historians for their knowledge, not always their perspective.

Finally, Chuck takes an illuminating detour into his "Time Machine" segment, tracing how communication technology has permanently reshaped the American presidency, from Alexander Graham Bell’s first phone call, to FDR's fireside chats, all the way to Trump’s constant social media use. Plus, Chuck answers listener questions touching subjects like the potential similarities between Pearl Harbor and Trump’s Iran strikes, NIL in college sports, what's really going on with Democrats’ reactions to politicians like John Fetterman straying from the party line, and James Talarico’s bid for Congress.

Go to  https://zbiotics.com/CHUCKTODDCAST and use CHUCKTODDCAST at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.”

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.

American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or AmericanFinancing.net/TheChuckToddCast

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

7:00 Trump's presidency entering "presidential quicksand"

9:00 Iran war: an expensive political disaster

11:00 Trump has no strategic endgame in Iran

12:00 Why regime change in Iran won't work

15:00 Trump's market collapse & terrible jobs report

19:00 Swing voters abandoning Trump

21:00 Supreme Court striking down Trump's tariffs

23:00 Corporate America pushing back: Anthropic, Netflix, small businesses

32:00 Republican label becoming a liability

36:00 Montana: Daines retirement stuns state

39:00 Trump no longer an outsider, now seen as the establishment

43:00 Biden/Afghanistan parallel: one bad moment can permanently crater approval ratings

57:00 Ken Burns joins the Chuck ToddCast

58:45 Having historical perspective is incredibly important

1:00:30 American Revolution one of the most important events in history

1:01:00 Criticism of his documentary as being "woke"

1:02:15 The Republican party has been the most successful party on earth

1:04:00 Ken's documentaries have a perspective, but it's not left vs. right

1:07:00 The author's politics matter when consuming historical books

1:08:15 People want historical events to match their worldview

1:09:30 The process for evaluating source material for his documentaries

1:11:45 The founders were incredibly focused on virtue

1:13:15 The American experiment was something new in human history

1:15:30 Constitution is a brilliant document, didn't foresee congress abdicating

1:21:00 The manufacture of fear empowers authoritarians

1:25:30 Using government as instrument of social change

1:26:45 Prohibition was going to happen with or without the Spanish Flu pandemic

1:29:30 Forcing social change via government was never going to work well

1:31:30 We don't teach the history of religion out of fear

1:41:00 Founders were explicitly against a national religion

1:44:00 The story of America's progress & transformation is incredible

1:45:15 Most recent past events that Burns is comfortable covering?

1:47:15 Trump & Obama will be intertwined in history

1:48:30 Views on the legacy of Vietnam changed vastly over the decades

1:51:15 It's good to take historians for their knowledge, not always their perspective

1:52:15 Potentially producing a documentary about the Cold War

1:54:45 We've had 3 straight one-term presidents, never happened in 20th century

1:56:15 After the USSR dissolved, Republicans made Bill Clinton the enemy

1:58:45 Race is a part of telling every historical American story

2:00:00 Killer Angels is Ken's favorite historical fiction

2:03:15 How should we celebrate America 250?

2:05:15 Yellowstone covers many facets of the American experience

2:06:45 Simplifying complex history is the behavior of authoritarians

2:09:00 Thoroughly enjoy doing the hard work of making documentaries

2:12:00 Time Machine: how technology transformed the presidency

2:14:00 Lincoln's telegraph, FDR's fireside chats, and the evolution of presidential communication

2:24:00 How communication technology reshaped corporate leadership

2:26:00 Technology's role in weakening Congress

2:28:00 Ask Chuck: Iran vs. Pearl Harbor comparison

2:30:00 Trump's inane college football roundtable

2:46:00 Fetterman & Sinema: Democrats' narrowing ideology

2:51:00 Question about changing county borders

2:55:00 Talarico's congressional bid

2:57:00 World Baseball Classic

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens the episode with a blunt assessment: it's starting to feel like the beginning of the end of Donald Trump's presidency. From an open-ended war in Iran to a cratering stock market, Trump finds himself sinking deeper into what Chuck calls "presidential quicksand," with every show of strength only revealing more weakness. Chuck breaks down the staggering early costs of the Iran conflict — over 1,000 casualties and $6 billion spent in just one week — and asks the question no one in Washington seems willing to answer: does anyone actually have an exit strategy? On the economy, the latest jobs report is sending ominous signals. With slow growth, rising prices, and tariff uncertainty dominating the economic discourse, Chuck makes the case that the swing voters who put Trump back in the White House for his perceived economic expertise are the first ones who'll walk away when their wallets take the hit. Corporate America is also starting to find its backbone. From Anthropic refusing to strip safety guardrails to Netflix walking away from a bad deal, Chuck sees a telling pattern: companies are pushing back on a president who looks weak.

Finally, Chuck takes an illuminating detour into his "Time Machine" segment, tracing how communication technology has permanently reshaped the American presidency, from Alexander Graham Bell’s first phone call, to FDR's fireside chats, all the way to Trump’s constant social media use. Plus, Chuck answers listener questions touching subjects like the potential similarities between Pearl Harbor and Trump’s Iran strikes, NIL in college sports, what's really going on with Democrats’ reactions to politicians like John Fetterman straying from the party line, and James Talarico’s bid for Congress.

Go to  https://zbiotics.com/CHUCKTODDCAST and use CHUCKTODDCAST at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.”

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.

American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or AmericanFinancing.net/TheChuckToddCast

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

7:00 Trump's presidency entering "presidential quicksand"

9:00 Iran war: an expensive political disaster

11:00 Trump has no strategic endgame in Iran

12:00 Why regime change in Iran won't work

15:00 Trump's market collapse & terrible jobs report

19:00 Swing voters abandoning Trump

21:00 Supreme Court striking down Trump's tariffs

23:00 Corporate America pushing back: Anthropic, Netflix, small businesses

32:00 Republican label becoming a liability

36:00 Montana: Daines retirement stuns state

39:00 Trump no longer an outsider, now seen as the establishment

43:00 Biden/Afghanistan parallel: one bad moment can permanently crater approval ratings

57:00 Time Machine: how technology transformed the presidency

59:00 Lincoln's telegraph, FDR's fireside chats, and the evolution of presidential communication

1:09:00 How communication technology reshaped corporate leadership

1:11:00 Technology's role in weakening Congress

1:13:00 Ask Chuck: Iran vs. Pearl Harbor comparison

1:15:00 Trump's inane college football roundtable

1:31:00 Fetterman & Sinema: Democrats' narrowing ideology

1:36:00 Question about changing county borders

1:40:00 Talarico's congressional bid

1:42:00 World Baseball Classic

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Legendary documentarian Ken Burns joins the Chuck Toddcast for a sweeping conversation about American history, the craft of telling it honestly, and why historical perspective has never mattered more than it does right now. Burns addresses head-on the criticism that his work is "woke," arguing that his documentaries have a perspective but it's not left versus right — he wants to call balls and strikes, and the truth shouldn't be something people fear. He offers a striking defense of nuance, noting that the Republican Party has been the most successful political party on earth and that his life's work has been about making films about both the U.S. and "us" — the complicated, contradictory people who built and continue to shape the country. Burns discusses his latest project on the American Revolution, which he insists he didn't intentionally time to the 250th anniversary, and reveals he's also working on a film about Reconstruction and potentially a documentary on the Cold War. He walks through his rigorous process for evaluating source material, the challenge of needing great actors to bring the founders to life, and how those founders were obsessively focused on virtue — creating something genuinely new in human history while writing a Constitution brilliant enough to endure centuries but unable to foresee Congress voluntarily abdicating its own power.

The conversation takes a fascinating philosophical turn as they explore the recurring patterns of American history: the manufacture of fear as a tool for authoritarians, the repeated failure of using government to force social change, and the way religion has been wielded as a cudgel by governments despite the founders being explicitly against a national religion. Burns offers a revealing window into his methodology, explaining that you need 25 to 30 years of distance before you can responsibly cover a historical subject, and that Trump's presidency has effectively constipated the scholarship on the Obama era because the two will be forever intertwined in history. He notes that views on Vietnam's legacy shifted vastly over decades, and that the passage of time is essential for triangulating toward truth — take historians for their knowledge, not always their perspective. 

Go to  https://zbiotics.com/CHUCKTODDCAST and use CHUCKTODDCAST at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.”

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.

American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or AmericanFinancing.net/TheChuckToddCast

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Ken Burns joins the Chuck ToddCast

00:45 No shortage of American history topics to cover

01:45 Having historical perspective is incredibly important

03:30 American revolution one of the most important events in history

04:00 Criticism of his documentary as being “woke”, fearful of the truth

05:15 The Republican party has been the most successful party on earth

06:15 Making films about the U.S. and also “Us”

07:00 Ken’s documentaries have a perspective, but it’s not left vs. right

07:45 You want to call “ball & strikes”

09:15 Making a film about the Reconstruction period

10:00 The author’s politics matter when consuming historical books

11:15 People want historical events to match their worldview

12:30 The process for evaluating source material for his documentaries

14:45 The founders were incredibly focused on virtue

15:30 Needed great actors to bring the founders to life

16:15 The American experiment was something new in human history

17:00 Didn’t mean to time “The American Revolution” release on 250th 

18:30 Constitution is a brilliant document, didn’t foresee congress abdicating

20:30 The manufacture of fear empowers authoritarians

22:30 There’s so many historical items with which to tell the story

25:00 Using government as instrument of social change

26:15 Prohibition was going to happen with or without the Spanish Flu pandemic

29:00 Forcing social change via government was never going to work well

31:00 We don’t teach the history of religion out of fear

32:45 Deism became the religious choice of many of the founders

33:15 Religion has been used as a cudgel by governments

34:00 Founders were explicitly against a national religion

37:00 The story of America’s progress & transformation is incredible

38:15 What’s the most recent past events that you’re comfortable covering?

39:15 Trump’s presidency has constipated the scholarship on Obama era

40:15 Trump & Obama will be intertwined in history

41:00 You need 25-30 years to pass before covering a historical subject

41:30 Views on the legacy of Vietnam changed vastly over the decades

42:30 Using the passage of time to triangulate

44:15 It’s good to take historians for their knowledge, not always their perspective

45:15 Potentially producing a documentary about the Cold War

47:45 We’ve had 3 straight one-term presidents, never happened in 20th century

49:15 After the USSR dissolved, Republicans made Bill Clinton the enemy

50:30 When will you tackle your first 21st century event?

51:45 Race is a part of telling every historical American story

53:00 Killer Angels is Ken’s favorite historical fiction

54:00 Any interest in producing dramatized history?

55:00 God is the greatest dramatist

56:15 How should we celebrate America 250?

57:00 Washington was incredibly rich and risked it all

58:15 Yellowstone covers many facets of the American experience

59:45 Simplifying complex history is the behavior of authoritarians

1:02:00 Thoroughly enjoy doing the hard work of making documentaries

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd delivers a blistering assessment of Trump's Iran war, arguing that the conflict has gone sideways in virtually every way imaginable — and that the lack of consequences for Trump's past norm-breaking gave him a false sense of impunity that led him here. Todd traces the logic: Iran looked like a paper tiger after the limited strikes in 2025, Trump saw the opportunity to kill Khamenei and took it, hoping for either a popular uprising or a pliant regime insider to step forward — but none of those hopes have materialized. Instead, the forces that wanted to overthrow the regime have gone underground, the CIA is now arming and training Kurds in what Chuck bluntly asks amounts to deliberately triggering a civil war, Iran has inflicted real damage on multiple Gulf states, and stranded Americans were told by the State Department they were on their own because the administration made no evacuation plan whatsoever. He zeroes in on the damning timeline: if the administration had time to move an armada into position, they had time to warn American citizens. He flags that passing a war supplemental will be a brutal vote for GOP members, that JD Vance now has to defend a war antithetical to his entire political identity, and pivots to the Texas runoff noting that James Talarico's biggest vulnerability is being more progressive than his nice-guy persona suggests, but that demeanor may be his superpower in a cycle where voters are exhausted by bomb-throwers.

Political commentator Chris Cillizza — who co-hosted the live Texas primary night coverage with Chuck— rejoins the show to dissect the aftermath of the Texas results and the broader 2026 landscape. With Jasmine Crockett having conceded to James Talarico and the Paxton-Cornyn race headed to a runoff that's essentially a coin flip, Todd and Cillizza dig into what Talarico's victory really means: he dominated in counties Bernie Sanders won, Latino voters broke decisively his way, and his ground game should terrify Republicans — but they caution against mistaking someone who is temperamentally moderate and perceived as "nice" for being politically moderate. They argue that Texas Democrats, having lost for so long, were desperate for something new, and that constant losing has made electability matter more than ideology — Democrats had to vote with their heads, not their hearts. They assess Crockett's future (great political athlete, bad campaign infrastructure, potential to compete for Ted Cruz's seat someday), debate whether Democrats should meddle in the GOP runoff to boost Paxton, and note that Talarico’s floor is around 47-48% — meaning Texas is genuinely in play.

The conversation then expands to the national map and the broader forces shaping 2026. They unpack Kamala Harris's late endorsement of Crockett — which came too late to matter and reinforces the same knock Biden got about indecisiveness — and Gavin Newsom's conspicuous shift on Israel in front of a liberal audience. They contrast that with the authenticity of politicians like Bernie Sanders and early-career JD Vance, noting that Vance has now lost his anti-interventionist identity after backing the Iran war while the administration's narrative spinning on the conflict is "an absolute mess." Looking ahead, they agree that the perception of the economy in June will be what drives the midterms, that the war will consume the administration — especially given the embarrassing lack of an evacuation plan for Americans in the Middle East, Trump's biggest critique of Biden — and that prediction markets now give Democrats a 45% chance of winning the Senate. They close by surveying pickup opportunities in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas, flagging independent candidates in the Midwest who know they can't win as Democrats, and declaring that 2026 will be the clearest preview yet of how 2028 plays out.

Finally, he reacts to the breaking news that Montana senator Steve Daines retired minutes before the filing deadline and argues that Republicans will be forced to defend what was a safe seat, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Go to  https://zbiotics.com/CHUCKTODDCAST and use CHUCKTODDCAST at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.”

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.

American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or AmericanFinancing.net/TheChuckToddCast

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

01:45 Trump’s war with Iran is not going well for him politically

02:30 Multiple countries have been dragged into a piece of the war

03:30 Lack of consequences for past actions gave Trump sense of impunity

04:45 Iran looked like a paper tiger after strikes in June 2025

05:30 Trump saw the opportunity to kill Khamenei and took it

07:30 Trump hoped for an uprising or a pliant member of the regime

08:45 None of those hopes have materialized 

09:30 Forces that wanted to overthrow regime went underground

10:30 The CIA is arming and training Kurds to overthrow the regime

11:45 Are we TRYING to trigger a civil war???

12:30 Regime change won’t come nearly as easy as Trump thought

13:15 Iran has inflicted damage to multiple gulf states

14:45 You can’t discount Trump’s business relationship as factors for war

16:00 Kushner involved in negotiations and has serious conflicts of interest

17:15 The administration is trying to use Israel as a shield

18:15 Administration made no plan to evacuate stranded Americans

19:00 Clearly was no imminent threat from Iran

20:30 If they had time to move the armada, they had time to warn Americans

21:30 The Iranians weren’t surprised that we were going to attack

22:30 Trump promised Iranian protestors “Help is on the way” - Took 40 days

23:00 State department told stranded Americans they were on their own

24:30 They put thought into the war itself, but not for the consequences

26:30 What’s Plan C? Hoping for a civil war?

27:15 This is Iraq on steroids and we have less credibility globally

28:30 Cost of providing stability in the region is politically unpopular

29:30 It’s a lot easier to start a war than to finish one

30:45 George H.W. Bush had a clean war with Iraq and voters punished him

32:00 When you’re under 80% support with your own party, you’re in trouble

33:30 Trump isn’t an isolationist, he’s a unilateralist. Do what he says

34:45 Passing a supplemental bill for war funding will be tough vote for GOP

36:30 J.D. Vance has to defend a war that’s antithetical to his political identity

37:30 Trump will endorse in Texas primary and expects the other to drop out

38:15 What will Trump offer Paxton to drop out early?

40:45 Republicans can’t win primary without Trump & he’s general election baggage

41:30 Talarico’s biggest vulnerability is he’s more progressive than his persona

42:15 Demeanor goes a long way in politics, could be Talarico’s superpower

45:00 Good for the Dems brand that first nominee (Talarico) isn’t a bomb thrower

53:30 Chris Cillizza joins the Chuck ToddCast

55:00 Jasmine Crockett concedes race to James Talarico

55:45 Race between Paxton & Cornyn essentially a wash

56:30 Big question is “Can Cornyn get to 50%”

57:15 Public is getting tired with the bomb throwers in politics

59:15 Talarico did well in counties that Bernie Sanders won

1:00:15 Texas Dems have been losing forever, desperate for “new”

1:02:00 Don’t mistake politically & temperamentally “moderate”

1:02:45 Being perceived as “nice” goes a long way

1:04:00 Online Dems are mad, but many want a change in tone

1:05:30 If Platner beats Mills by 15, Talarico data point feels like outlier

1:06:15 Have constant Dem losses in TX made “electability” more important?

1:07:15 Dems in Texas have to vote with their head and not their heart

1:09:00 Crockett is a great political athlete with bad campaign infrastructure

1:10:00 Talarico had a great ground game, should scare Republicans

1:11:15 Crockett could compete for Ted Cruz’s senate seat

1:12:00 Unlikely this is the last we hear from Crockett in politics

1:13:00 Crockett did well where she was well known

1:14:00 Kamala Harris endorsement came too late for Crockett

1:15:00 Harris shows herself to be incredibly risk averse

1:17:45 We’ll get the full story on the late endorsement in six months

1:18:30 Harris shares the same knock Biden got… can’t make decisions

1:19:15 Newsom signals shift on Israel in front of a very liberal audience

1:20:30 Newsom just pandering? Or is it a genuine flip

1:22:00 Gavin Newsom is a politician to his core

1:23:30 Newsom looked like he was desperate to find traction

1:24:00 Trump didn’t change, the moment came to him

1:25:00 Tariffs are terrible politics, but Trump’s liked them for decades

1:25:30 Bernie Sanders has been the most authentic politician for years

1:26:45 Sanders and Ron Paul ended up voting together many times

1:28:15 Vance lost the anti-interventionist part of his identity after Iran war

1:30:00 The spinning for a narrative for the war is an absolute mess

1:31:30 The perception of the economy in June will be what affects midterms

1:32:45 War will consume the administration

1:33:30 Administration had no plan to evacuate Americans from middle east

1:34:30 Trump’s big critique of Biden was the Afghanistan withdrawal

1:37:00 Prediction markets have Dems chances of winning senate at 45%

1:39:45 How should Dems try to affect Texas runoff?

1:41:30 Meddling works and if Cornyn is the nominee Talarico loses

1:42:00 Talarico’s floor is around 47-48

1:42:30 How do Dems sort Alaska, Ohio, Texas and Iowa?

1:43:45 If Josh Turek is the nominee in Iowa, race could be interesting

1:45:00 2026 will give us a clue as to how 2028 will play out

1:46:30 If one of the independent candidate wins statewide it’s a BIG deal

1:49:00 Midwest independent candidates know they can’t run as Dems and win

1:55:00 Montana senator Steve Daines announces retirement

1:55:45 Retirement will put Montana senate seat into play

1:56:15 Will this put pressure on Jon Tester to come out of retirement?

1:56:45 Montana will now be a key cog in campaign 2026

1:58:00 Potential that transplants could turn Montana into Colorado politically

1:59:00 Republicans will be favored, but it will require work & money

2:00:30 Democrats have had success in Montana in midterm years

2:01:00 This week just keeps getting worse for Republicans

2:02:00 Ask Chuck

2:02:30 Do reliably red/blue states get less investment from the federal government?

2:08:15 Could Trump try to trigger NATO’s Article V over Iran?

2:17:00 Will Texas AG runoff produce even more radical anti-trans rhetoric & policy?

2:20:00 My son thinks voting is useless. How do we teach the new generation it matters?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Political commentator Chris Cillizza — who co-hosted the live Texas primary night coverage with Chuck— rejoins the show to dissect the aftermath of the Texas results and the broader 2026 landscape. With Jasmine Crockett having conceded to James Talarico and the Paxton-Cornyn race headed to a runoff that's essentially a coin flip, Todd and Cillizza dig into what Talarico's victory really means: he dominated in counties Bernie Sanders won, Latino voters broke decisively his way, and his ground game should terrify Republicans — but they caution against mistaking someone who is temperamentally moderate and perceived as "nice" for being politically moderate. They argue that Texas Democrats, having lost for so long, were desperate for something new, and that constant losing has made electability matter more than ideology — Democrats had to vote with their heads, not their hearts. They assess Crockett's future (great political athlete, bad campaign infrastructure, potential to compete for Ted Cruz's seat someday), debate whether Democrats should meddle in the GOP runoff to boost Paxton, and note that Talarico’s floor is around 47-48% — meaning Texas is genuinely in play.

The conversation then expands to the national map and the broader forces shaping 2026. They unpack Kamala Harris's late endorsement of Crockett — which came too late to matter and reinforces the same knock Biden got about indecisiveness — and Gavin Newsom's conspicuous shift on Israel in front of a liberal audience. They contrast that with the authenticity of politicians like Bernie Sanders and early-career JD Vance, noting that Vance has now lost his anti-interventionist identity after backing the Iran war while the administration's narrative spinning on the conflict is "an absolute mess." Looking ahead, they agree that the perception of the economy in June will be what drives the midterms, that the war will consume the administration — especially given the embarrassing lack of an evacuation plan for Americans in the Middle East, Trump's biggest critique of Biden — and that prediction markets now give Democrats a 45% chance of winning the Senate. They close by surveying pickup opportunities in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas, flagging independent candidates in the Midwest who know they can't win as Democrats, and declaring that 2026 will be the clearest preview yet of how 2028 plays out.

Go to  https://zbiotics.com/CHUCKTODDCAST and use CHUCKTODDCAST at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.”

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.

American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or AmericanFinancing.net/TheChuckToddCast

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chris Cillizza joins the Chuck ToddCast

01:30 Jasmine Crockett concedes race to James Talarico

02:15 Race between Paxton & Cornyn essentially a wash

03:00 Big question is “Can Cornyn get to 50%”

03:45 Public is getting tired with the bomb throwers in politics

05:45 Talarico did well in counties that Bernie Sanders won

06:45 Texas Dems have been losing forever, desperate for “new”

08:30 Don’t mistake politically & temperamentally “moderate”

09:15 Being perceived as “nice” goes a long way

10:30 Online Dems are mad, but many want a change in tone

12:00 If Platner beats Mills by 15, Talarico data point feels like outlier

12:45 Have constant Dem losses in TX made “electability” more important?

13:45 Dems in Texas have to vote with their head and not their heart

15:30 Crockett is a great political athlete with bad campaign infrastructure

16:30 Talarico had a great ground game, should scare Republicans

17:45 Crockett could compete for Ted Cruz’s senate seat

18:30 Unlikely this is the last we hear from Crockett in politics

19:30 Crockett did well where she was well known

20:30 Kamala Harris endorsement came too late for Crockett

21:30 Harris shows herself to be incredibly risk averse

24:15 We’ll get the full story on the late endorsement in six months

25:00 Harris shares the same knock Biden got… can’t make decisions

25:45 Newsom signals shift on Israel in front of a very liberal audience

27:00 Newsom just pandering? Or is it a genuine flip

28:30 Gavin Newsom is a politician to his core

30:00 Newsom looked like he was desperate to find traction

30:30 Trump didn’t change, the moment came to him

31:30 Tariffs are terrible politics, but Trump’s liked them for decades

32:00 Bernie Sanders has been the most authentic politician for years

33:15 Sanders and Ron Paul ended up voting together many times

34:45 Vance lost the anti-interventionist part of his identity after Iran war

36:30 The spinning for a narrative for the war is an absolute mess

38:00 The perception of the economy in June will be what affects midterms

39:15 War will consume the administration

40:00 Administration had no plan to evacuate Americans from middle east

41:00 Trump’s big critique of Biden was the Afghanistan withdrawal

43:30 Prediction markets have Dems chances of winning senate at 45%

46:15 How should Dems try to affect Texas runoff?

48:00 Meddling works and if Cornyn is the nominee Talarico loses

48:30 Talarico’s floor is around 47-48

49:00 How do Dems sort Alaska, Ohio, Texas and Iowa?

50:15 If Josh Turek is the nominee in Iowa, race could be interesting

51:30 2026 will give us a clue as to how 2028 will play out

53:00 If one of the independent candidate wins statewide it’s a BIG deal

55:30 Midwest independent candidates know they can’t run as Dems and win

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