Explorez tous les épisodes du podcast The Care for My Wealth Show

5%...isn't something supposed to break!  Not when you look at the cost of money though the correct lens.

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MOVE Index Moved hard! Last time coincided with stock market bottoms...or close to it.

BREADTH - sucks in the short term view. But zoom out and look at price! New highs or near new highs.

FLASH PMIs - US Business is BOOMING!

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Metals - Gold & Silver don't like accelerating CPI data or risng 2YR rates

Sentiment - AAII data says lots of investors are bearish...similar to what we saw in spring 2025. Right before a very powerful rally

Seasonality - OCT NOV are best 2 months in mid-term years going back to 1950.

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YIELD CURVE - hammered down. 

OIL - 10YR / OIL correlation highest since 1990. Iran dependent more than Fed.

SEMICONDUCTORS - -13% discount to the S&P!

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AI spending is just beginning

Transports looking sickly with $650+ diesel.

Copper - rise continues as global growth is still...growing

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Fed - changed directions. Will history repeat like in Sept 2024 only in an inverse way?

GDP - Atlanta Fed see 5.1%! Acceleration. That'd be best since Q4 2021.

When compared to capex, Dividends are rising faster than in the late 1990s...the golden era.

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Fed Day! Hike is likely

Oil Futures Curve - steep backwardation suggests oil settles down

Global debt - socialist style governments are paying the price

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Postioning - still looks like people are not hiding

Short term risks - CTAs

Gold - does not like high rates. But gold NOT ripping is NOT a signal that stocks are in trouble.

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Bonds - failing to provide diversification from stock moves

Rates - not stopping yet!

VIX - Ready to fail at trend?!

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Is this bubble good? Have we seen anything like this before? Yes!
Dr Copper saying global growth is just fine
Rates - Fed meets next week and even though markets are betting they raise rates...I say they won't.

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Risks Rising?
Volatility waking up?
Japan - rates and Yen keep rising. Yes carry trade risks
Oil...still moving on momentum. $108 strong resistance

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1.) US DOLLAR = Weak...no flight to safety, no rate hike
2.) SENTIMENT - no euphoria. AAII Bull ratio looks constructive
3.) OIL- Tankers moving thru the Strait?

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Debt - NOT a fleeing from US debt. This is a repricing of soverign solvency risk
Oil - probably headed higher as WTI, Brent breakouts...now Shanghai futures above Brent. China a buyer again?
Zoom out. Markets look fine

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Debt - NOT a fleeing from US debt. This is a repricing of soverign solvency risk
Oil - probably headed higher as WTI, Brent breakouts...now Shanghai futures above Brent. China a buyer again?
Zoom out. Markets look fine

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POSITIONING in markets is what matters. You see euphoria? Nope
Rates - rising everywhere..not just in US. Inflation AND growth tend to come hand in hand.
GDP - Atlanta Fed pushing GDP estimates higher

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Be a contrarian...you'll live longer
Too many shorts in the system to see a -10% correction
Valuations - market is NOT expensive

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Yields - saying something...just not what they have been
Bonds NOT doing their job
Bitcoin...getting closer to that bear market bottom

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credit spreads saying everything is ok
US Dollar still in a downward bias confirming everything is still ok
KOSPI - South Korea - telling us that demand is still good.

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No euphoria in this market
Housing repricing? Median prices dropping.
Oil...probably see a bit of a move up here.

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Gold - buy those dips!
Inflate or DIE! You know what governments will do.
Earnings estimates look just fine.


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Rates out of control? Gov't stepping in to hold rates down.
AI Bubble? No...not yet.
US Dollar down!  Good for gold and bitcoin.

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Energy - breakout
Flows - heavy positive
Bitcoin - big buyers been buying!

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Naz 100 Futures positioning is HUGEly short. Buy!
Insiders buying!
New Lows keep dropping

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BofA Bull Bear
Oil
Fibonacci

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Bond market confirming no rate hike
Gold...buy the dips
US Dollar - headed down

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3M - a look at economic activuty that tells a story of strength
NO RATE HIKE COMING. PERIOD.
Share buybacks are ramping

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Bubble...not like 1999
Investors keep saying Yes to companies raising capital
Buy gold

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Inflation is not the same for everyone
Housing
Oil

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Bearish Dollar Good for gold
VIX and forward returns

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CTAs squeezing gold higher?
Jobs number sucked. The Fed is NOT going to raise rates.
Becareful of labels and arbitrary numbers in maket speak

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Software is NOT dead!
Equal Weighted Indexes are telling a good story
Gold still trending lower, but a base is now looking for formidable

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Share buyback window opening wider!
New all time highs!
Invetory to sales ratio at levels lower than the last three recessions. This is BULLISH!

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Valutions - Cheapest since 2020! This is NOT the most expensive market ever.
NSYE - hitting new highs
STOXX 50 - Europe breaking out for first time since dot-com bubble!

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Inflate or Die!
Taylor Rule says rates too low!
30 Yr Yields still breaking out

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Banks - healthy breakout
DXY - Risk on breakdown
Gold - Healthy consolidation

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RATES - market doing Fed's job
RETAIL - Retail army hit the sell sell sell button!
BREADTH - keeps getting better as market corrects moves sideways

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FED DAY! Nothing burger.
P/E RATIOS - Don't matter as much as you think
REVENUES - Best ever 

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FED - Could a Fed hike be bullish for equities?
KOSPI - still bad
BUYBACKS - open window is opening more

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2 YR Yields suggest the Fed should hike rates

Earnings reporting to change?

PEG Ration - cheapest market in decades?

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Banks are doing fine!

Businesses are being created!

Oil is ready for a pullback.

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RATES - moment of truth might be failing for bond buyers.
OIL - Higher she heads into trend resistance. $110 in the cards?
US DOLLAR - Dollar loves uncertainty...risk assets do not. $101.59 will be important.

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RATES - US 10YR Yields are at a moment of truth! It would not be surprising to see them reverse and head lower over the next several weeks / months.

GEOMETRIC - Value Line Geometric Index. Looks at the "middle stock". If the foundation of the market was cracking it would not look like it does today.

BREADTH - While the S&P 500 has consolidated, the percentage of stocks to make a new 52-week high since March has continued to expand, rising from 35% at the S&P 500’s last high to 46%.  Healthy.

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LEVERAGE - Leveraged ETFs only account for 0.25% of US market...and it's falling
VIX - Seasonality is good to know, but not be anchored to
BONDS - More and more corelated with stocks. Don't ask how much in bonds you should own, but ask what should I own that don't all do the same thing!

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BANKS - new all time high for Bank Index...not something consistent with a weak market
LEVERAGE - Not what the internet scary charts suggest
OIL - Tested at $85...big test at $87-$94


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OVERDONE - are the high beta names done correcting? GS High Beta Basket hitting levels not seens since 2009. Probably closer to a bottom than a top.

ROTATION - positive rotation still happening with cyclicals still leading defensives

MAG7 - not lagging the semis anymore. Are we close to an announcement that the hyperscalers are ready to cut capex?

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KOSPI - South Korean stock market breaks trend
Space X - Unlock schedule
Capital - a lot of global capital sloshing around in the system

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CPI - Breadth falling...good for no hike? Maybe a cut?
Strait of Hormuz
Yield Curve - rising

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Oil - doing what I said it might do
CPI - deceleration...should not be a surprise
Concentration - we don't have that concentrated of a market. Stop listening to the media. 

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Mid-Term
US Dollar
Kospi

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Crack Spreads - widening!
Put/Call Ratio - max fear yesterday!
Earnings momentum - good

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