Explorez tous les épisodes du podcast The Bayesian Conspiracy

Classic, season one adventure this week! Eneasz and Steven have a loosely structured conversation about the sequences’ value, the virtue of silence, scissor statements, and the value of philosophy. LINKS Cryonics is Free! Dan Dennett – Where Am I? The Virtue of Silence Scissors Statements 00:00:05 – Pre-pre show Discussion 01:41:43 – Guild of the […]

Eneasz chats with TBC Discord member Delta about the cultivation of small online cultures. Get the full episode via our Patreon or our SubStack!  

Spurred by comments from a couple of episodes ago, we wanted to make sure we didn’t misrepresent Matthew’s position and he agreed to come lay it out for us on the show. Check out the links below to dive in deeper. LINKS Bentham’s Newsletter Bentham’s Bulldog on the Best Argument for God and also Miracles […]

Roe v Wade is going away. This sucks, but it’s not the end of the world. Polls show most Americans support allowing abortion in the first weeks, banning it in the last trimester. In state’s where it’s legal, one can have a self-managed abortion. AidAccess is available to help. Services like ipostal1 will forward mail from other […]

Not long ago, Hawai’i was a constitutional monarchy. A lot of Hawaiian residents want that restored. Travis Don Kailikea Paradea takes us through what happened, and what’s going down now. Recommended by Travis: The Legends and Myths of Hawaii The Rise and Fall of the Hawaiian Kingdom: A Pictorial History Unfamiliar Fishes Weblog of the […]

Four Major AI Advancements In One Week! New Scaling Laws for Large Language Models – essentially everyone has been training large language models with a deeply suboptimal use of compute Googles Pathways Language Model explains jokes, and it can distinguish cause and effect and understand counterfactuals DALL-E 2 makes amazing art on demand Socratic Modeling […]

We address theoretical cryonics concerns, and discuss Guzey’s Theses On Sleep 3:15  Cryonics Concerns 49:21  Theses On Sleep 1:23:01  LW posts 1:50:16  Thank the Patron Also mentioned: LW Cryonics Probability Estimates guide Our episode with Rudy Hoffman Lifespan podcast Limitless w Chris Hemsworth Counter-theses on Sleep Scott Alexander’s Sleep Is The Mate Of Death Cryonics […]

The Conspirators regroup to discuss if/how their views on monarchy have changed. The full episode is available for our Patrons Mentioned: List of Current States With Monarchs CGP Gray’s Rules for Rulers (Keys of Power) Tears For Fears – Everybody Wants To Rule The World (warning – crappy 80s song)

We speak with Cornelius about this idea that Monachy is good because it can save us from populist fascism. 1:44:50 LW posts 2:14:45 Thank the Patron Cornelius blogs at EsotericMusings.substack.com Also mentioned: Gray Mirror Substack Democracy: The God that Failed by Hans-Hermann Hoppe Jace’s counterargument is basically a link to Scott Alexander’s Anti-Reactionary FAQ We […]

We catch up on stuff and hit a few wandering targets. 0:01 Jace on Lithium 21:10 Feedback 26:05 LW posts 50:06 Nuclear Ukraine 59:43 Nuclear Us 1:05:30 Steven Tries To Get Us Cancelled Lithium in drinking water linked with lower suicide rates The Mind Killer – Vladimir Putin’s Small Dick Energy Warcasting – ACX and […]

We discuss A Chemical Hunger – the paper presenting the hypothesis that the modern obesity epidemic is due to enviromental contamination causing widespread lithium poisoning. EDIT – MAJOR UPDATE – It’s probably not lithium! Links to become a patron of this group, or contact them BMI Calculator Less Wrong Posts – 5:53 Main Topic – […]

This is a trailer for a bonus Patrons-only episode. It’s 45 minutes chatting with Aella about various things that struck Eneasz’s interest. Aella’s twitter is Aella_Girl. Homepage at Knowingless, also has a substack.

The Conspiracy comes out strongly in favor of switching to Normal Predictions, which is safe and easy when you use the Jan Christian Refsgaard method! Also, we agree with Zvi that Change is Bad. (Though note that changing to Normal Predictions has so many positives that it outweighs the Bad of Change, so don’t let […]

Rikard joins us to speak about the benefits of consensual violence LINKS Rikard’s Substack – Drunken Masterpieces Rikard is @rikardhjort Twitter Defense Against the Dark Arts is just the Dark Arts The Ultimate Self-Defense Championship Armchair Violence The poem Rikard recited 0:00:17 – Consensual Violence 1:24:05 – Guild of the Rose Update 1:25:37 – Less Wrong […]

A few days ago I asked Wes a couple follow-up questions on wireheading, and later chatted with Emilio from the Discord on-record. I thought it wouldn’t be too long, but it turned out to go about as long as a full episode. So now there’s a bonus episode available for Patrons (and Discord members) on […]

Jace and Steven cover this one since Eneasz is busy drinking cocktails out of a coconut in a beach in Hawaii. Robin Hanson (probably correctly) thinks the world is going to shit (paraphrasing). He thinks that a robust check on the escalating madness out there could be a community of intellectual generalists. Is he right? […]

We beef with Wes over how important values may or may not be, and why Wireheading is awesome and/or evil. Wes is the head of The Mind Killer podcast! 7:23  –  LW Posts discussion begins 53:39  –  Main Topic begins 2:01:40  –  Thank the Patron We also discuss Not Everthing Is a Clue and Aladdin […]

We speak to Aella about her post on Frame Control Aella’s Twitter & LSD post National Domestic Violence Hotline The Categories Were Made For Man not visa versa SSC post Jace’s XKCD reference Shut Down The Narcissist video Gray Rock video Not Everything Is A Clue Shaping Exercises 101 Hey look, we have a discord! What could […]

We discuss Sasha Chapin’s “Your Intelligent, Conscientious In-group Has Bad Social Norms Too” Main Topic begins at 45:46 Other items mentioned: The Simple Truth – Eliezer’s short story about The Sheep Counter Keep Your Identity Small – by Paul Graham, not Hanson! Otters vs Possums – by Aella Shit Rationalists Say Hey look, we have […]

We discuss the book The Procrastination Equation as summarized by Luke in How to Beat Procrastination The audio is rough at first, we fixed it after 8 minutes. Other items discussed include: Bezos in a Mecha The Goth Chicken Whether the King’s English was good enough for Jesus? Hugh Jackman for Men vs Hugh Jackman […]

We speak with Jason Crawford (twitter), from The Roots of Progress. Interview begins at 44:25. Posts discussed include: Iron: From mythical to mundane The various Why Did It Take So Long For (X), and specifically Cotton Gin, Bicycle, and Threshing Machine Does invention come from deprivation or plenty? Progress studies as a moral imperative and […]

Matt Freeman returns to talk about Decision Theory, and the discusion ranges far afield. Matt is from The Guild of the Rose, which we had a recent episode about. You can see his Decision Theory Course videos here. Scott Alexander on All Debates Are Bravery Debates Our previous Newcomb episode Our previous Torture vs Dust […]

How Newcomb’s problem applies to real-life. We discuss Newcomblike problems are the norm (LW crosspost). Also mentioned: Replacing Guilt Audiobook! Our episode on Replacing Guilt Our episode on Talking To Strangers part 1, and part 2 Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? Also merch! Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast, […]

We settle the ultimate question once and for all. also discussed: Julia Galef’s quick video on Bayesian Thinking Bulletproofing deters warlords Steven’s friend’s GoFundMe Our first and second and third episodes on cryonics. The interview with Rudi Hoffman is the third one, and he can help get you signed up at  rudihoffman.com. Also the Cryonics […]

Rachel Zuber joins us to talk about hospice work, dying in America, and why she’s less optimistic about cryonics now. LINKS All the Living and the Dead Caitlin Doughty on YouTube CI cryonics case reports Places of Death in the US Prev Episodes – Cryonics pt 1 and pt 2 w Robert McIntyre, and Cryo […]

We discuss You Are In Newcomb’s Box and The IQ Shredder also touched on – Why Does Singapore Have Such A Low Birthrate? Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? Also merch! Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast, and the other podcast LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode: The Tragedy of Group […]

We discuss The Guild of the Rose with Matt Freeman. This is somewhat of a follow-up, we first did a show about them when they were called The Guild of Servants. Join their beta! Things we mention: Of course The Guild of the Rose, and their Patreon Matt’s 2018 appearance on our show – Freestyle […]

We discuss the review of the book Crazy Like Us Also the highlights from the comments of the review Quick single-line spoiler for ep 3 of Loki occurs at 41:52 and lasts for ~20 seconds. Discussed in the show: The Greatest Show on Earth Old Suicide Squad Editting Fail Making Sense ep 180 – Sex […]

We discuss Dan Sivers Do This Directives Mentioned: Dan’s interviews The Scout Mindset book Jace’s Funny Dance video An Alien God audio Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? Also merch! Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast, and the other podcast LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode: Fake Justification An Alien God […]

Velcro from the subreddit and discord joins us to offer a much-valued parent’s perspective on child rearing from the perspective of someone who’s actually reared children. Jace was out looking at tiny houses (it’s a thing, they’re adorable/awesome and you should google it) and was unable to make it for this episode. We’ve talked about […]

There’s too many clouds, and they’re ruining stuff that’s good! Mentioned in this episode: Do This. Directives. A very early episode of ours about Feelings Top ACLU lawyer comes out as pro-book-burning Replatforming? Discusses the overview of the Dean of Claremont McKenna Shares the exact wording of the email discussed above Hey look, we have […]

Running with the theme of childhood/adolescent responsibility, we start off with a brief live-feedback section from esteemed guest Charlie and then move on to discuss Johnathan Haidt and Greg Lukianov’s 2015 Atlantic essay (mostly informed by Haidt’s subsequent podcast appearances) The Coddling of the American Mind, which was turned into a book 3 years later. […]

We discuss Robert Epstein’s “Teens 2.0” as he makes the Case Against Adolescence. Eneasz’s Highlights from Teens 2.o The Banned Goods Store How Adult Are You? test See also Youthfacts.org National Youth Rights Association Nurses on Young People, as seen on Facebook Paid Bonus content – preshow chat on Tesla buttons, Denver Comedy Venues, and […]

Who can be allowed to choose their sex partners? 0:00 – 37:00 — Less Wrong Posts Discussion 37:03 – end — Main Subject Discussion Mentioned in this show: Worth The Candle & Not Everything Is A Clue Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? Also merch! Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The […]

The Conspiracy is minus one Jace but plus one Justin (a defense lawyer) this episode! We discuss the legalities surrounding the convictions of Derek Chauvin – the cop who (literally and legally) murdered George Floyd. If you’re interested in a historical play by play of Justin’s write ups throughout the  court precedings, check out his posts […]

Brandon comes back to explain how wind works. Steven and Brandon are not the two you want if you want to quickly get to the point so this went on for a good while. It’s an awesome conversation and Patrons and Substack supporters will have access to the whole thing.   https://earth.nullschool.net/

This is the recording of the live episode we held on 4/18/2021. Things mentioned: Amazing Man 2: Love Conquers All BBC receives 109,741 complaints over Prince Philip coverage “My Immortal” As Alchemical Allegory The Count Censored The Venus Project Uncultured Swine’s episode on The Ones Who Walk Away From Omelas The AI Girlfriend Seducing China’s […]

The Live Episode will be in our Discord this Sunday (April 18th) at 12:00 Noon Mountain Time (which is UTC -6). Anyone can join the audio channel and listen along. Anyone who wants to chat with us or ask questions (which is the primary purpose of this episode) can be given Live Guest role to […]

The gang discusses class in America, and Scott Alexander’s Modest Proposal to destroy American politics. Source posts: Fussell On Class, and A Modest Proposal For Republicans: Use The Word “Class” Also mentioned: RattleFic Podcast Our episode on Albion’s Seed Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? Also merch! Rationality: From AI to […]

David is back for us to pester him with questions about Libertarianism, and he tries to turn us all into Anarchists!! (not really (but he wouldn’t mind)) SPOILER WARNING! This episode contains spoilers for Worm, and for Pulp Fiction. The Mind Killer podcast “The Truth of Fact, the Truth of Feeling” by Ted Chiang is […]

The trio unites with the Mind Killers to get mind killed on Libertarianism! Not mentioned in the episode, but worth putting here – SSC’s Anti-Libertarian FAQ Elinor Ostrom’s book –  Governing the Commons: The Evolution of Institutions for Collective Action The Mind Killer podcast Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? Also […]

We catch up on some feedback and address a handful of items that have been banging around. “We Change Our Minds Less Often Than We Think” How to eat nature balls (The Universal Edibility Test) Martyr Made podcast The Mind Killer podcast Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? Also merch! (and as […]

2/3rds of the Conspiracy discusses “Hate is the New Sex” What You Can’t Say, by Paul Graham – audio at Second Ennumerations Scissor’s Statements coined at SSC post “Sort By Controvertial” Bird’s Aren’t Real The Metropolitan Man (and We Want MoR Superman analysis podcast) Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? Also […]

We talk with Lucien Greaves, co-founder of The Satanic Temple. We discuss seperation of church & state, abortion rights, and the value of federal religious recognition. Baphomet Satanic Aborition Ritual Grey Faction  Find a local chapter That old article about how chickens are mostly walking meat-factories has been found! Take it with the understanding that […]

We had a topic for this week, but it was prempted by the spectacle of a headlong collision between a delusional mob and harsh reality. Footage from inside the mob as it storms the capital building Riot timeline The Hodge Twin’s video expressing disbelief that anyone could believe the election was fair 538 on police […]

Richard Acton answered our plea for an expert in the field of aging science! He’s Post-doctoral researcher and bioinformatician at CECAD, A Cluster of Excellence Aging research institute at the University of Cologne. His PhD work focused on the Epigenetics of aging Including ‘aging clocks’ which permit you to estimate the ‘biological age’ or time to […]

Brandon Hendrickson takes over the podcast! He interrogates Eneasz about his past, and this crazy rationalist religion idea, and introduces a vast knowledge base of secular religion development. LINKS Brandon’s substack, The Lost Tools of Learning Simple square visualization to understand Bayes Theorem SA – Yes We Have Noticed The Skulls That’s Modalism, Patrick! Bentham’s […]

The conspirators are joined by Ben and Oliver from the LessWrong team. In addition to standing up a new and improved platform for LessWrong and revitalizing the community, they’ve compiled about 40 posts from 2018 and put them in physical books that you can buy (for basically the cost of production) at lesswrong.com! Some of […]

The conspirators share potential weaknesses in the career-distribution system that too many people don’t exploit. With the usual amount of meandering along the way. 80,000 hours Two articles from Tim Ferriss’s blog Optimal Employment – LessWrong Here’s an older episode of ours on Biohacking Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? Rationality: […]

A listener wants to know if we can reach life extension escape velocity. LessWrong open thread on “true” life expectancy, and post on Three Open Problems in Aging The SENS Research Foundation Elysium announces their NMN trial, and the ClinicalTrials.gov link Charlie’s Notes David Sinclair’s post about NMN vs NR Nootropic’s Depot, where you can […]