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Titre
Date
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Ep. 2000: Bonds Are Doing Their Job
15 Oct 2026
00:34:12
Bond prices are falling as yields rise—and that does not mean diversification has failed. Don and Tom explain why high-quality bonds can decline when stocks and the economy are strong, why that behavior is normal, and why chasing high-yield or “alternative” bond funds can quietly turn the conservative side of a portfolio into more stock-market risk.
They also answer questions about Roth conversions after required minimum distributions have begun, whether conversion taxes should ever come from retirement assets, and whether buying an annuity for a child makes sense compared with a Roth IRA or 529 plan.
00:00 Nashville-style intro 02:16 Why bond prices are falling 04:02 Comparing BND, municipal, Treasury, and high-yield funds 05:40 What a balanced portfolio is supposed to do 07:17 The hidden risk in “better-performing” bond funds 11:47 Stocks for growth, bonds for cushion 14:19 Roth conversions after RMDs begin 22:28 Listener questions 24:16 Paying Roth-conversion taxes 26:46 An annuity for a child? 31:46 Wrap-up 32:37 Disclosures
Questions? Comments? Click the microphone at TalkingRealMoney.com.
Some IRA mistakes cannot simply be reversed. Don and Tom explain the traps around non-spouse beneficiary transfers, the one-rollover-per-year rule, 72(t) plans, the same-property rollover rule, outdated beneficiaries, qualified charitable distributions, missed RMDs, and portfolio drift.
Then Mike from Salt Lake City asks how aggressively he should convert a traditional IRA to Roth before Social Security and future inherited assets change the tax picture. Don and Tom discuss bracket management, paying conversion taxes from taxable savings, QCDs, inherited pretax accounts, and rerunning the plan every year.
They also answer whether costs matter in 529 and UTMA accounts and review a globally diversified retirement portfolio approaching withdrawals.
00:00 Dixieland intro 01:28 IRA mistakes you can’t undo 03:00 Non-spouse beneficiary transfers 04:50 The one-rollover-per-year rule 05:45 Altering a 72(t) plan 07:43 The same-property rollover rule 10:56 Beneficiaries, QCDs, RMDs, and portfolio drift 16:20 Roth-conversion strategy 22:42 Listener questions 23:44 529 and UTMA expenses 24:40 Reviewing a retirement portfolio 27:43 Wrap-up 28:47 Disclosures
Questions? Comments? Click the microphone at TalkingRealMoney.com.
Don and Tom compare the S&P 500 with total-market and globally diversified investing, explain the danger of home bias, and show why owning more of the world can reduce concentration risk. Then they answer questions about Roth conversions, bond-fund losses, CD ladders, and matching a risk score to a stock-bond allocation.
00:00 Oktoberfest musical intro 01:23 S&P 500 versus the whole market 04:18 Why global diversification matters 09:07 Home bias around the world 13:11 A lost decade for the S&P 500 15:46 Three questions about diversification 16:59 Roth-conversion strategy 23:31 Bond funds versus individual bonds 27:37 CD ladders and reinvestment risk 29:55 Risk scores and stock-bond allocation 32:53 Wrap-up and disclosures
Questions? Comments? Click the microphone at TalkingRealMoney.com.
Don and Tom use Disney’s infamous lemming myth to explain investor herd behavior, recency bias, and the danger of chasing whatever has recently been hot. Then they answer questions about simplifying a diversified portfolio, evaluating a long-held annuity, and why “Bank on Yourself” whole-life strategies create more problems than they solve.
00:00 The lemming film clip 00:56 The lemmings didn’t jump 02:21 The lemming corollary 04:38 Herd behavior in tech, crypto, and markets 07:58 When the crowd is wise—and when it isn’t 12:48 Listener questions begin 13:16 Simplifying a diversified portfolio 16:32 Should she keep the annuity? 20:40 The problems with “Bank on Yourself” 25:58 Wrap-up 27:11 Disclosures
Questions? Comments? Click the microphone at TalkingRealMoney.com.
Don tackles listener questions about growth versus value stocks, choosing the right time to retire, Medicaid and estate-planning concerns, the problems with infinite-banking whole-life policies, when annuities may make sense, and how mutual-fund distributions affect share prices.
00:00 Zeuhll musical intro 01:08 Friday Q&A begins 03:51 Growth stocks versus value stocks 07:43 Choosing the right month to retire 11:29 A parent’s home, Medicaid, and estate planning 14:52 Infinite banking and whole-life insurance 17:59 When annuities may make sense 22:56 Mutual-fund capital-gains distributions 26:34 Wrap-up
Questions? Comments? Click the microphone at TalkingRealMoney.com.
Is a home always a great investment? Don and Tom compare buying with renting, explain why leverage can make home returns look better than they are, and lay out when owning makes sense. Then they answer listener questions about one-fund versus multi-fund portfolios, disciplined rebalancing, and whether delaying Social Security still pays when a spouse is waiting for a benefit increase.
0:34 The American dream of homeownership 3:42 Home returns versus stocks 8:01 When buying beats renting 11:35 Buying and selling in a high-rate market 15:06 Listener questions 16:19 One global fund or several ETFs? 23:32 Building and rebalancing a multi-fund portfolio 26:42 Social Security timing for couples
Don and Tom unpack what financial advice should cost after a retired couple discovers they’re paying $31,000 a year. They compare fee-only, fee-based, and commission models, explain how hidden fund expenses compound the damage, and show why every advisor should disclose the full all-in cost.
Listener questions cover the Avantis balanced fund, building retirement income from a total-return portfolio, and where bonds belong across taxable and retirement accounts.
They also compare qualified charitable distributions, donor-advised funds, and charitable gift annuities—and explain why complexity and guarantees can hide expensive tradeoffs.
0:41 Cajun opening 2:50 What financial advice should cost 8:03 Do you actually need an advisor? 11:11 Hidden fund fees and commissions 16:31 Listener questions 18:04 The Avantis balanced-fund correction 19:30 Building retirement income 22:23 QCDs, donor-advised funds, and charitable gift annuities 29:17 A musical warning about bad advice
Covered-call ETFs trade away upside for income and still carry market risk. They also discuss TSP Roth conversions, an Avantis balanced fund, a possible X Money cash offer, and other media projects.
The biggest drag on an investment portfolio may be the investor. Don and Tom examine the behavior gap—the difference between what investments earn and what people actually keep after fear, greed, overconfidence, and badly timed decisions take their toll. They explain why market timing so often means selling after prices fall and returning only after the recovery is obvious. Missing even a handful of the market's best days can dramatically reduce long-term wealth, while a disciplined plan helps keep emotion from becoming strategy. Listener questions cover whether a well-funded retiree should increase stock exposure, the cost of hiring a professional trustee, and what to do with a small whole-life policy purchased in childhood. 1:30 Financial Physics Rule 12 3:06 The investor behavior gap 5:33 The emotional cycle of investing 7:57 Overconfidence and money 9:58 The cost of missing the best days 16:00 Should retirement risk increase with age? 19:25 What professional trustees cost 22:28 Cashing out childhood life insurance
Seven listeners bring seven practical money decisions, and Don moves through them without the usual detours. He compares ETFs with mutual funds, untangles realistic stock returns and retirement withdrawal rates, and explains where a short-term bond fund may fit.
Then he tackles the tax tail on an expensive legacy fund, why reverse-mortgage proceeds should stay safe, the real job of emergency savings, and what to have ready for a free advisor conversation.
2:13 ETFs vs. mutual funds 4:56 Real returns and retirement withdrawals 9:37 Short-term bonds as dry powder 10:56 Taxes versus an expensive legacy fund 14:15 Reverse-mortgage cash 16:54 Emergency savings 18:44 Preparing for an advisor meeting
One lucky streak can feel like investing genius—but anecdotes are not evidence. Don and Tom examine leveraged ETFs such as TQQQ, the brutal losses leverage can magnify, and why surviving a good run does not prove a strategy is sound. They answer a federal employee’s question about the TSP C, S, and I funds, explaining why a favorable 2003–2025 backtest cannot tell us what comes next and why diversification is still about reducing concentration risk. Then they dissect slick “hybrid pension” annuity pitches and the difference between a withdrawal rate and an investment return. Finally, they look at the other side of higher interest rates: better yields for savers, CDs, Treasuries, and broad bond funds—while reminding investors that fixed income’s main job is relative stability. 0:42 Luck, anecdotes, and leveraged ETFs 12:51 Why a winning backtest can mislead 19:32 The truth behind hybrid pension annuities 25:09 Higher rates, savers, and bond stability
Retirement planning becomes a two-clock problem when spouses are a decade or more apart in age. Don and Tom explain why one household may need to fund two timelines—and why healthcare, Social Security timing, survivor taxes, and account ownership deserve extra attention. The older, higher-earning spouse may need to delay Social Security to age 70 to protect the younger survivor. A strong plan also models the household after one spouse dies, when income and filing status can change abruptly. Listener questions examine unusual model portfolios, rules-based versus discretionary fund management, and an expensive indexed annuity sold to an 81-year-old. The recurring lesson is simple: sound planning beats clever complexity. 0:49 The two-clock retirement problem 4:28 Healthcare and Social Security timing 7:12 The widow's tax and survivor planning 11:37 Portfolio backtests and the Golden Butterfly 19:02 Is rules-based investing active? 23:51 An unsuitable annuity sale
Don and Tom examine the promises behind fixed, indexed, and immediate annuities—and why the word ‘guaranteed’ deserves closer scrutiny. They explain how insurers invest policyholder money, what state guaranty pools actually cover, and why complexity can hide both cost and risk. Listener questions cover when to claim Social Security, how delaying benefits can protect a surviving spouse, the interaction between Social Security COLAs and Medicare Part B premiums, and where TIPS may—or may not—belong in a portfolio. 0:58 Insurance Annuity Concerns 6:56 Annuity Guarantees Questioned 10:27 What Annuities Really Guarantee 16:07 Bridge, Banter, and Listener Mail 18:32 Social Security Timing Advice 24:04 Social Security and Medicare Costs 29:31 TIPS and Inflation Protection 35:13 Free Advisor Help
Higher fees do not buy higher returns. Don and Tom unpack the fee-to-risk/reward ratio, show how fund costs compound against investors, and compare low-cost index funds with expensive active funds, hedge funds, and private equity.
Then they answer listener questions about converting Vanguard mutual funds to ETFs without triggering taxes, leaving a home to a stepson while preserving the step-up in basis, and spotting financial articles that are really advertisements in disguise.
3:22 The fee-to-risk/reward ratio 9:15 Hedge funds and private equity 13:19 How much is too much to pay 16:05 Converting Vanguard mutual funds to ETFs 17:38 Leaving a home to a stepson 19:53 When financial advice is an advertisement
Six listener questions drive this Friday edition, starting with whether a pre-retirement car purchase belongs on a 401(k) withdrawal. Don explains why preserving tax-deferred growth usually matters more than trying to micromanage one year's tax bracket. The conversation moves through realistic return assumptions, global diversification, and the cleanest way to donate appreciated stock. Don also weighs the risks and costs of a non-traded real estate fund and reviews a thoughtfully conservative retirement bucket strategy. Finally, a listener challenges Don's supposed dislike of insurance. The answer: insure the losses you cannot absorb, use sensible deductibles, and avoid paying an insurance company to cover every manageable inconvenience. 4:02 Buying a car before retirement 6:34 Return assumptions and global diversification 11:10 Donating appreciated stock 14:37 The risks inside BREIT 17:14 A two-bucket retirement plan 22:03 What insurance is really for
Retirement planning gets dangerous when people drift toward either extreme. Don and Tom unpack a survey in which savers wildly overestimate the nest egg they need, yet also assume they can safely withdraw 10% a year. The better answer is a portfolio and spending plan built for the actual person.
They turn to the mechanics of retirement income: whether to take IRA distributions monthly or annually, how tax-aware withdrawals can help, and when paying cash for a large purchase makes sense. A listener’s target-date-plus-small-value portfolio also gets a simplicity check.
Finally, the show takes on “alternatives” marketed as bond substitutes—from covered calls to catastrophic bonds. When fixed income feels boring or unsettled, complexity is not safety; plain government and broad bond funds still do the stabilizing job.
0:58 Finding a portfolio that is just right 2:44 Saving too much and withdrawing too much 9:07 Why every portfolio must fit its owner 14:34 How to take retirement distributions 18:46 Target-date funds plus small value 22:54 The danger in exotic bond alternatives 27:37 Why boring money is good money
Winter comes for markets, too. Don and Tom ask the useful question before the next bear market arrives: will your portfolio—and your nerves—be ready? They revisit painful declines, concentrated bets, and why a plan matters most when selling feels irresistible. They explain how rebalancing, a sensible mix of stocks and bonds, and tax-loss harvesting can help investors respond with discipline. Your risk tolerance is only half the equation; there is no prize for taking more risk than your goals require. Listener questions cover the home-sale tax exclusion when moving into a retirement community, how Don writes AI-assisted podcast music, and whether AI trading tools change the odds of beating the market. 00:50 Bear markets ahead 02:54 What a bear market means 05:34 The worst bear markets in history 08:07 Rebalance and stay ready 14:38 Home-sale tax rules 17:42 Making podcast music 22:03 AI trading hype
Coast FI promises that if you save enough early, your retirement money can coast the rest of the way. Don and Tom run the numbers and find the missing passengers: inflation, Social Security, uncertain returns, and the messy surprises of real life.
They like aggressive early saving, but not treating a projection as a guarantee—or abandoning a valuable saving habit and employer match. The listener questions cover Treasury bills versus CDs in high-tax states, California municipal bonds, and how to simplify scattered retirement accounts.
They also explain why an S&P 500 fund can leave nearly 40% of a portfolio riding on one sector. A globally diversified one-fund solution is less exciting, easier to maintain, and far less dependent on yesterday’s winners.
00:36 What Coast FI promises 04:36 Inflation breaks the easy math 06:43 Life does not follow a spreadsheet 09:25 Save early—but keep saving 15:20 T-bills, CDs, and state taxes 20:05 Simplifying four old 401(k)s 25:13 The hidden tech bet in the S&P 500 30:03 The Line Uncrossed audiobook
Exciting investments often arrive wrapped in a great story—and hide a much bigger risk. Don and Tom revisit Financial Physics Rule 10, explain the price of chasing sizzle, and separate investing from speculation.
Then they answer whether quarterly advisor check-ins are reasonable and why a sound portfolio should not require constant tinkering. They close with a conservative IRA allocation question and the tradeoffs among U.S. stocks, global diversification, and short- versus broad-term bonds.
The through-line is simple: excitement, complexity, and concentration usually raise costs and risk. Patient diversification may not make good cocktail conversation, but it makes a better long-term plan.
00:50 Why exciting investments cost more 03:08 Selling the sizzle at Dean Witter 05:23 Complexity, risk, and costly funds 09:24 Prediction markets, crypto, and gambling 13:21 How often should an advisor meet? 22:16 Rethinking a conservative IRA mix
Friday’s listener questions cover the kind of decisions that sound simple until the details arrive. Don weighs the ease of Vanguard’s total bond fund against building a Treasury ladder, and explains why convenience can be a perfectly sensible investment feature.
Then it’s overseas: how much international stock exposure belongs in a diversified portfolio, and why no single U.S./international split is scientifically “right.” The show also sorts out HSA investing, beneficiaries, and the rule for holding more than one HSA.
Finally, Don explains why a large RMD and tax puzzle needs a real written plan, then helps a listener nearing retirement compare a two-fund portfolio with a Vanguard target-date fund.
0:46 Friday Q&A begins 2:24 Listener feedback on the show’s music 4:20 BND versus a Treasury ladder 9:01 U.S. versus international stocks 12:59 How to invest and inherit an HSA 16:24 Preparing a large portfolio for RMDs 20:08 Two funds or a target-date fund near retirement
Americans’ 401(k) balances are hitting records—but nearly one in five workers has an outstanding plan loan. Don and Tom explain why a properly sized emergency fund should protect retirement savings from life’s inevitable surprises.
They also show why TLT and other long-term Treasury funds are not cash substitutes: when rates move, long-duration bonds can swing like stocks. A diversified bond allocation, regular rebalancing, and clear buckets matter more than chasing today’s yield.
Then they examine a puzzling Social Security statement and Robinhood’s expanding prediction markets, where a simple yes-or-no contract looks a lot more like gambling than investing.
00:35 — Retirement savings reach record highs 05:49 — The rise of 401(k) loans 07:45 — Building the right emergency fund 09:19 — When and why to rebalance 13:08 — Why TLT is not cash 19:23 — A strange Social Security estimate 22:34 — Robinhood’s prediction-market gamble
Bond prices are falling as long-term rates rise, but that doesn't mean bonds have failed. Don and Tom explain why bond prices and yields move in opposite directions, why a normal yield curve can look painful, and why the real job of bonds is stability—not stock-like returns.
They compare broad intermediate-term bond funds with Treasuries, including the state-tax advantage of VGIT for some investors, and revisit the long-run case for a balanced portfolio. The bottom line: stop trying to time interest rates and let bonds do the boring work.
Then they answer listeners on skipping bonds when heirs are the real beneficiaries, using fixed annuities inside a CD ladder, FDIC versus state guaranty protection, and simple funds-of-funds for one-stop diversification.
00:40 Welcome and model-airplane weather 01:42 Why bond yields rise when prices fall 05:22 What bonds are actually for 08:40 Stop trying to time interest rates 11:36 BND, VGIT, and the state-tax edge 17:26 Can wealthy heirs justify an all-stock portfolio? 19:07 Fixed annuities inside a CD ladder 22:57 Funds-of-funds for simple diversification
Financial advice is everywhere, but useful investing guidance is strangely hard to find. Don and Tom sort through the stock-picking headlines, social-media hype, and finfluencers who turn excitement and fear into clicks.
Then Randy sends an annuity sales presentation that makes some very large claims. The guys examine the unsupported numbers, the misleading comparisons, and why a prospectus matters more than a polished pitch.
Plus, is a rising equity glide path really a cornerstone of retirement planning? And should an I bond help pay a daughter’s student loan or seed a grandchild’s 529? 00:44 Coyote vs. Acme and the genius of Looney Tunes 03:34 Why most investing headlines are useless 06:07 Where people get financial advice 07:33 TikTok finfluencers and online money hype 12:39 Three listener questions 13:35 An annuity sales pitch under scrutiny 22:44 Rising equity glide paths in retirement 29:22 Using an I bond for family education 31:31 The Financial Physicists return
If an investment takes longer than a minute to explain, the confusion may be doing the selling. Don and Tom examine the confusion-to-risk ratio through structured notes, CDOs, variable annuities, equity-index annuities, leverage, hidden tradeoffs, and the costly products that prosper when buyers stop asking simple questions. Then they tackle tax-gain harvesting for a child, Massachusetts municipal bonds, and RMD timing.
Want more Money Music? Hear extended versions from Don’s fictional AI band, The Financial Fysicist, on Apple Music: https://music.apple.com/us/album/let-the-boring-money-in/6805953759 or Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/album/0G06JEvGsyw6SISfAOxLt6?si=ah2uVVWuQwmxTqjBeta8AQ
Retirement questions rarely have one-number answers. Don works through a couple’s ambitious retirement goal after a late start, a new retiree’s urge to attack a 7% mortgage with Roth money, and the tax-smart sale of expensive mutual funds. He also explains why target-date funds can improve real-world results, clarifies the rules for new Trump accounts, and shows how spending from a brokerage account can create room for a Roth conversion. The common thread: run the right numbers before making an irreversible move.
The best portfolio cannot help much if every spare dollar disappears at checkout. Don and Tom debate practical ways to slow impulse purchases, automate saving, and build better money habits—without banning the things that make life enjoyable. A live listener call turns to TIAA and 403(b) costs, diversification, and where stocks and bonds belong across Roth and traditional accounts. Then they discuss why a pension promise depends on who stands behind it, and what investors trade when they move from a total-market fund to a factor-tilted portfolio.
Who is looking out for insurance customers—and who is paying the people who set the standards? Don and Tom examine insurance-industry incentives, questions about the NAIC’s funding and transparency, and why consumers should ask about commissions and costs. Then a listener challenges their take on rising equity glide paths and sequence-of-returns risk. They revisit the competing research and the role of personal risk tolerance, explain AVGE’s fund-of-funds expenses, and compare a broad-market portfolio with a factor tilt.
Target-date funds promise a simple glide path from growth to safety—but people with the same retirement date can have completely different needs. Don and Tom compare Vanguard, Fidelity, and BlackRock funds, examine costs and stock-bond mixes, and explain why simple does not mean specific. Then they revisit decades of failed crash predictions from Rich Dad, Poor Dad author Robert Kiyosaki.
Want more Money Music? Hear extended versions from Don’s fictional AI band, The Financial Fysicist, on Apple Music: https://music.apple.com/us/album/let-the-boring-money-in/6805953759 or Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/album/0G06JEvGsyw6SISfAOxLt6?si=ah2uVVWuQwmxTqjBeta8AQ
Should retirement spending pass through a Roth? Can a nonprofit offer a 401(k) with ETFs? Does active management really win overseas? Don works through a packed listener-question episode covering Roth conversions, retirement-plan rollovers, SPIVA versus Morningstar, Treasuries and CDs, dividend reinvestment in retirement, and whether a variable universal life policy still earns its keep.
Want more Money Music? Hear extended versions from Don’s fictional AI band, The Financial Fysicist, on Apple Music: https://music.apple.com/us/album/let-the-boring-money-in/6805953759 or Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/album/0G06JEvGsyw6SISfAOxLt6?si=ah2uVVWuQwmxTqjBeta8AQ
A CFP mark reflects meaningful education, but it does not guarantee clean disciplinary history, fee-only advice, or an unwavering fiduciary relationship. Don and Tom examine the gap between reassuring credentials and the disclosures investors may find through FINRA BrokerCheck and SEC adviser records.
They explain what investors should verify before hiring anyone: compensation, dual registration, product sales, disclosures, and a written fiduciary commitment. The designation can matter—but it cannot replace due diligence.
An 11.15% coupon sounds irresistible—until you read the trapdoors. Don and Tom unpack a listener’s BNP Paribas auto-callable structured note and ask the question Wall Street hopes nobody asks: what actually has to happen before you get paid?
The answer includes contingent coupons, the worst-performing of three indexes, a five-year lockup, bank credit risk, and a cliff where a 41% market loss can become your 41% loss. Add a 1.5% advisory fee, and this complicated promise fails the show’s favorite tests: simplicity, transparency, and liquidity.
Then the phones open for retirement-planning software, a 19-year spousal age gap, fears about Japan dumping Treasuries, an Irish financial jingle, and the difference between a mega backdoor Roth and an ordinary backdoor Roth.
1:05 — The structured note pitch: 11.15% with fine print 4:03 — Contingent coupons and the worst-of-three rule 6:50 — The 40% buffer cliff and five-year lockup 9:34 — Simplicity, transparency, and liquidity fail 11:50 — How big is the structured-note market? 13:20 — The Financial Fysics album makes its debut 15:35 — DIY retirement-planning tools and a big age gap 21:56 — Could Japan dump a trillion dollars of Treasuries? 25:16 — Compound interest meets an Irish pub 27:26 — 401(k), mega backdoor Roth, and contribution limits
Want more Money Music? Hear extended versions from Don’s fictional AI band, The Financial Fysicist, on Apple Music: https://music.apple.com/us/album/let-the-boring-money-in/6805953759 or Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/album/0G06JEvGsyw6SISfAOxLt6?si=ah2uVVWuQwmxTqjBeta8AQ
Dimensional Fund Advisors founder David Booth joins Don and Tom to explain why better investing begins with accepting uncertainty instead of pretending to predict it. They discuss staying calm through frightening markets, controlling what investors can control, and why missing a rebound can permanently damage a plan.
Booth also traces the evidence behind factor investing—market, size, value, and profitability—and explains why robust research must survive different countries, decades, and data sets before it belongs in a portfolio.
Risk and reward are inseparable, even when an investment pitch makes the danger hard to see. Don and Tom explain why higher expected returns require accepting uncertainty, why recent gains do not erase future losses, and why products promising market-like returns without market risk deserve skepticism.
Then they answer listener questions about market odds, taxes, Chime, and finding truly fiduciary advice.
It’s Friday Q&A—with a small experiment. Don slips one AI-generated voice among the listener questions and challenges you to identify the robot, with his complete two-book library hanging in the balance.
The financial questions are thoroughly human: where to keep a future car fund, whether an $11,000 Roth-conversion program earns its fee, when children can fund Roth IRAs, and what happens when bond holdings move from a traditional IRA into a Roth.
Don also tackles the enviable problem of an oversized HSA, its inheritance rules and post-65 flexibility, plus the timing tradeoff for Social Security survivor benefits.
0:46 — Friday Q&A and the find-the-robot challenge 4:03 — Where should a $70,000 car fund live? 7:21 — Is an $11,000 Roth-conversion plan worth it? 9:39 — Roth IRAs for children—and newborns 11:13 — Bonds that move into a Roth conversion 13:54 — The $500,000 HSA problem 16:43 — When a surviving spouse should claim Social Security
Robinhood says it wants to be everything to investors—but its fastest-growing attractions look a lot like a casino. Don and Tom examine prediction markets, options, crypto, payment for order flow, and the uneasy fit between fiduciary advice and a brightly lit door to speculation.
They explain why gamification and enormous transfer bonuses can be especially dangerous for inexperienced investors. If the goal is long-term wealth rather than entertainment, a boring, diversified custodian still beats a platform built to monetize trading excitement.
Then they answer questions about using bonds during a retirement downturn, combining CD ladders with target-date funds, the trap behind eye-popping mortgage REIT dividends, and better ways to give money to grandchildren.
1:03 — Robinhood and its merry band of revenue streams 3:00 — Vlad Tenev explains the financial supermarket 5:36 — A fiduciary office beside a casino door 8:28 — Monetizing speculation instead of investing 13:14 — Using bonds when retirement begins in a downturn 21:06 — CD ladders and target-date funds 23:36 — The truth behind 17% REIT dividends 27:28 — UTMA, UGMA, 529s, and gifts for grandchildren
The market’s long winning streak has investors wondering whether a crash is waiting in the wings. Don and Tom look at the S&P 500’s run, the lost decade that followed the 1990s boom, and why international diversification changed that outcome dramatically.
They also explain why market timing asks the impossible: missing the worst days sounds wonderful, but missing the best days can be devastating. The less theatrical answer is still the useful one—make a plan, understand your tolerance for risk, diversify broadly, and sit still.
Then it’s on to a near-retiree offered a portfolio stuffed with individual stocks, whether international bonds belong in a simple portfolio, why a professionally managed 20-fund portfolio is different from a DIY one, and how to rebalance when Roth and traditional accounts complicate the job.
3:33 — A historic market streak—and what might follow 4:31 — The lost decade diversification softened 7:08 — Why timing the best and worst days fails 9:22 — The boring answer: plan, diversify, be patient 14:04 — Individual stocks on the eve of retirement? 23:02 — A quick Celebration restaurant detour 24:28 — Do international bonds belong in your portfolio? 27:38 — When 20 funds are too many—or not 32:24 — Rebalancing across Roth and traditional accounts
Wall Street has declared yet another “year of the stock picker.” Don and Tom examine Morningstar and SPIVA data showing how few active large-cap funds beat their benchmarks—and why high fees, trading costs, taxes, short horizons, and fierce competition keep the odds tilted toward low-cost diversification.
Then Greg asks where stocks and bonds belong while he begins Roth conversions. The discussion covers asset location, small-cap value exposure, international diversification, tax brackets, IRMAA, and keeping the portfolio’s overall risk level intact.
Finally, they tackle an all-U.S. Roth for a 20-year-old, a couple’s pre-retirement glide path, and a pricey Fidelity target-date fund that can be replaced inside a Roth without creating a tax bill. Stay through the end for a money-music bonus.
0:37 — The “year of the stock picker” returns 2:41 — Active funds trail their benchmarks again 8:30 — Why passive keeps winning 13:29 — Asset location for Roth conversions 22:09 — Should a 20-year-old invest only in the U.S.? 23:59 — Reducing risk before retirement 28:24 — Escaping an expensive target-date fund 31:53 — Reviews, inflation, and a money-music bonus
Rule Seven of Financial Physics says there is no new news: by the time public information reaches you, the market has already reacted.
Don and Tom explain why neither headlines nor illegal insider tips offer ordinary investors a durable edge, why fast trading and miracle systems disappoint, and why accepting market returns is the saner path.
Then they compare JAAA with BND, help a student balance FAFSA concerns with emergency savings and a Roth IRA, warn against reaching for yield, and untangle a Roth 401(k) rollover.
0:44 The shortest investing book 1:54 Rule Seven: No New News 3:27 Public information versus insider information 6:48 Why trading the headlines is futile 9:37 Efficient markets and accepting market returns 11:27 The trouble with miracle trading systems 14:13 Talking Real Money music online 17:17 JAAA versus BND for bonds 20:21 FAFSA, emergency savings, and a Roth IRA 22:28 Reaching for yield with riskier bonds 24:49 Rolling over a Roth 401(k)
Friday’s question pile ranges from the safest bond fund around to the harder question of what retirement is actually for. Don sorts through the choices with his usual preference for simple, sturdy answers.
He weighs the TSP G Fund against BND, checks the bona fides of Raisin and The College Investor, and argues that leaving work makes sense only when something better is waiting on the other side.
Then comes a candid disagreement over 21-fund portfolios, followed by a pension decision for a well-funded couple who can afford to self-insure. The court may have advisors, but Don is still happy being its jester.
Topics 03:26 Is the TSP G Fund enough fixed income? 05:47 Raisin and The College Investor: useful and legitimate? 09:44 Retirement needs a purpose, not just an age 12:37 Twenty-one funds, advisor complexity, and honest disagreement 16:11 Single-life versus joint-survivor pension choices 18:57 Social Security timing, RMDs, and a very strong retirement plan
Being great at running a company does not make anyone a market oracle. Don and Tom unpack the money regrets of successful CEOs—and the costly confidence that often follows success.
They draw the line between business skill and investment skill, explain why financial literacy matters, and make the case for diversification over hindsight, stock-picking games, and concentrated bets.
Then they turn to listener questions on catching up at 43, investing a church endowment, an underperforming robo portfolio, and where stock dividends should go near retirement.
Topics 03:46 CEOs, money regrets, and false confidence 08:10 Financial literacy without the stock-picking game 10:21 Tesla hindsight and the bets we didn’t make 11:41 Asset allocation and the cost of being too conservative 15:20 Business owners and concentration risk 17:48 Catching up on retirement saving at 43 21:22 A 60/40 church endowment with a 2.5% draw 23:12 When a robo portfolio badly trails the market 25:35 Dividends, bonds, and rebalancing near retirement
Could a nation of steadier 401(k) investors make markets calmer—or will algorithms, options, and meme-stock behavior keep the ride bumpy? Tom and Roxy weigh the forces pulling volatility in both directions.
Next, an almost-80-year-old with a $4 million portfolio asks who should coordinate the inheritance plan. The answer is a team effort, with the financial advisor calling the plays and the CPA and estate attorney handling their specialties.
They also decode RIA versus IAR, flag the conflicts that can come with dual registration, and tackle asset location, TSP diversification, inherited money, and whether to sell Vanguard ETFs before adding DFA or Avantis.
Timestamps: 0:44 A French café opening 2:40 Will more investors mean less volatility? 7:12 Who quarterbacks an estate plan? 10:15 RIA, IAR, broker-dealer, and fiduciary conflicts 15:25 Inherited money, TSP, Roth, and brokerage choices 21:21 Adding DFA or Avantis to Vanguard ETFs
AI’s appetite for data centers is sending tech giants to the bond market—and some of that debt will still be around in 2075. Don and Tom look at the scale of the borrowing and why a tempting yield deserves a closer look.
They separate coupon rate from yield to maturity, explain senior unsecured debt, and show how brutally interest-rate-sensitive a 50-year bond can be. The verdict: these bonds may belong in a broad index, but they don’t belong on your personal shopping list.
Listener questions cover sequence-of-return risk, Roth IRAs versus 529s for children, and the smart savings order for a 19-year-old earning real money for the first time.
Timestamps: 0:38 AI, data centers, and corporate debt 3:40 The $50 trillion U.S. bond market 5:21 Big Tech’s borrowing binge 7:06 Coupon rate versus yield to maturity 8:10 The danger in a 50-year bond 12:45 Sequence-of-return risk in retirement 16:05 Roth IRAs and 529s for children 20:14 A young saver’s order of operations
Why is financial forecasting so persuasive when its track record is so poor? Don and Tom open the Book of Financial Physics to Law No. 6—“Nobody Knows Nothing”—and explain why stock pickers, market timers, and highly paid pundits cannot reliably tell you what comes next.
Then they answer listener questions about permanent life insurance and deferred income annuities, trusted contacts and two-factor authentication, and whether a wealthy client can copy an advisor’s portfolio while paying for advice on only part of the assets.
Finally, they simplify a 529 allocation for a three-year-old and detour through vacation smoke, Disneyland prices, and the value of ignoring suspicious messages.
00:39 The sixth law of financial physics 01:48 Nobody Knows Nothing 04:19 The real cost of active management 05:14 What prediction makes investors miss 07:00 Active funds lose market share 10:22 Pundit performance versus the index 12:00 Send in your questions 13:27 Permanent life insurance and deferred annuities 17:36 Securing investment accounts 21:02 Why trusted contacts matter 22:14 AUM fees and copying a portfolio 25:45 The simple 529 allocation 28:24 Smoke, Disneyland, and family vacation
Required minimum distributions don’t have to trigger a fire sale. Don explains how an in-kind transfer can move an investment from an IRA to a brokerage account while preserving the holding and resetting its cost basis.
Then it’s back to school: a cut-off Coverdell question, the unusual strength of the TSP G Fund, and a surprisingly useful 4% money market account that can behave a lot like checking.
The finale sorts out UTMA 529 rules, beneficiary control, and why a low-cost age-based portfolio is often the simplest college-saving choice.
Timestamps: 0:43 Friday listener Q&A begins 3:26 RMDs without selling investments 7:16 Moving a Coverdell into a 529 8:24 Why the TSP G Fund stands out 10:12 A 4% money market checking alternative 12:50 UTMA 529s, control, and age-based funds
Wall Street can promise dazzling returns, but private equity’s fees, illiquidity, and tax drag may leave investors with far less than the headline number. Don and Tom unpack research showing how ordinary index funds and municipal bonds can deliver comparable after-tax results with much less risk.
Then a startling poll claims many Americans believe stocks only help the richest—and that gambling may beat investing. The hosts push back with the math, then tackle when taxable brokerage accounts belong after retirement savings.
They close with practical answers on international bonds, paying college costs from a 529, and the surprisingly complicated quest for a signed copy of Don’s novel.
03:47 — Private equity promises vs. after-tax reality 10:38 — Do stocks only benefit the top 1%? 13:03 — Gambling or investing: which odds win? 16:36 — Retirement accounts before taxable brokerage 19:47 — Do you need international bonds? 21:08 — The cleanest way to use 529 money 22:32 — A signed copy of The Line Uncrossed?
Fresh from passing the CFP exam, Roxy Butner joins Tom to work through a classic retirement fork: take the richer lifetime teacher pension, or accept a $315,000 lump sum and invest it. The math matters, but so do longevity, survivor benefits, liquidity, investing temperament, and the temptation to spend the pile.
Next comes a clever tax-payment question: can IRA withholding replace quarterly estimated payments during Roth-conversion years? They explain why paying conversion taxes from taxable money usually preserves more long-term value.
The show closes with a 5.25% mortgage-versus-investing decision and a portfolio x-ray that finds a dividend-heavy international fund missing small companies, value stocks, and emerging markets.
00:58 Roxy passes the CFP exam 02:46 Teacher pension or $315,000 lump sum? 08:36 Rolling a pension lump sum to an IRA 09:33 IRA withholding versus estimated taxes 13:48 Pay off a 5.25% mortgage or invest? 17:34 Fixing an under-diversified retirement portfolio 21:50 Living—and spending—with a sound plan
Just when you thought America had invented every possible retirement account, along comes the Radish. Don and Tom dig into the proposed employer-funded savings plan, the man who helped create the 401(k), and whether workers really need another tax-advantaged vegetable in an already crowded garden.
The practical answer is simpler: start saving now. A Roth IRA and one broad global stock ETF can do more good than waiting for the perfect account—or learning every acronym in the retirement alphabet.
Listener questions cover diversifying beyond rental real estate, whether spreading accounts across custodians is useful cyber insurance, moving emergency cash from Ally to SGOV, Roth 401(k) matching, and Roth IRA withdrawal timing.
00:37 Mountain music and backyard radishes 02:40 The retirement-account alphabet 04:36 What exactly is a Radish plan? 09:04 Save now; simplify later 11:53 Diversifying beyond rental real estate 16:15 TSP, SEP IRA, and custodian cyber risk 19:06 SGOV for an emergency fund 21:26 Roth 401(k) matching and Roth IRA access
Financial Physics rule five asks the uncomfortable question every investor should answer: what is the worst that could happen? Don and Tom revisit leverage in 1929, the crashes of 2000, 2008, and 2020, and the practical defenses that keep a bad market from becoming a ruined plan.
Then the questions turn to retirement planning: managing IRMAA while considering Roth conversions, weighing long-term-care insurance against self-insuring, and judging whether a $1.6 million portfolio can support a modest withdrawal despite a pricey advisor.
Finally, they untangle the five-year rule when Roth 401(k) money moves to a Roth IRA—and confirm that Tom, not Don, is the resident grump.
00:39 Financial Physics rule five: prepare for the worst 04:35 Leverage, crashes, and the lost decade 06:27 Risk near and in retirement 12:23 IRMAA brackets and Roth conversions 16:46 Long-term-care insurance or self-insure? 22:30 Retirement withdrawals and advisor fees 24:34 Roth 401(k) rollovers and the five-year clock
Don opens with a spirited defense of AI as a creative tool—especially when it makes ideas possible that would otherwise be too expensive or time-consuming. Technology changes the jobs around us, but learning to direct it responsibly can expand what one person can make.
Then it’s on to listener questions: how charitable giving from a retirement account might work better through an IRA and qualified charitable distributions, whether dividends and bond interest should be reinvested, and why money generally belongs at work instead of waiting in cash.
Finally, Don weighs a COLA-adjusted pension against a lump sum, considers a low-cost new 401(k) versus an IRA, gives a hard no to illiquid Why Refi promissory notes, and compares simple flexible retirement withdrawals with advisor-managed guardrails.
03:40 — AI as a creative tool 07:01 — Charitable giving, IRAs, and QCDs 09:55 — Reinvesting dividends and bond interest 11:37 — Pension or lump sum? Plus the next 401(k) 14:52 — Why Refi and the danger of “magical” returns 17:56 — Flexible withdrawals versus guardrails
Chargebacks were built to protect consumers from stolen cards and crooked merchants. Now they’re increasingly used when a subscription surprises someone, a restaurant disappoints, or buyer’s remorse sets in. Don and Tom sort real fraud from “friendly fraud”—and explain why the first call should usually go to the merchant, not the bank.
They also look at confusing statement names, recurring subscriptions, the cost merchants absorb when a dispute lands, and why credit cards generally provide stronger consumer protection than debit cards.
Then it’s listener-question time: a free-dinner annuity pitch promising 12% to 15%, whether to bunch charitable gifts, dialing a retirement portfolio from 60/40 to 50/50, and using RMD withdrawals to rebalance at Vanguard.
0:38 — From 1929 bucket shops to today’s prediction markets 3:21 — Chargebacks, card fees and “friendly fraud” 7:06 — Mystery merchant names and subscription confusion 8:25 — Bad service, buyer’s remorse and the fraud line 11:10 — When a chargeback is legitimate 13:28 — Why merchants lose most disputes 16:59 — Listener questions begin 17:30 — The free-dinner annuity pitch 22:49 — Should you bunch charitable gifts? 24:06 — 60/40 or 50/50 before Social Security? 26:06 — RMD withdrawals and Vanguard rebalancing