Super-Macro Management – Détails, épisodes et analyse

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Super-Macro Management

Business & Entrepreneuriat

Fréquence : 1 épisode/54j. Total Éps: 18

SuperMacro provides a summary of the most critical economic and financial news from the major regions, with insights into the impact on markets and policy. We take a detailed look at the fundamentals once a week, highlighting opportunities for tactical trading strategies and longer-term investments.

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Données mises à jour le 15/09/2026

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Bonds are a Trap

Épisode 18

mardi 8 septembre 2026 • Durée 28:33

There is a generation of bond traders who have never seen yields this high, levels they would have dreamt of five years ago. The US deficit is running at 5.5 to 6% of GDP with the economy nowhere near a recession, and there is no political will in sight to fix it. That combination alone isn't the buy signal it looks like.

Two live risks sit in front of this call. Wednesday brings the Treasury's buyback announcement, and Bessent has already said he will at least double the size, with room to go further. Friday brings the CPI print that Fed chair Kevin Warsh has effectively staked his credibility on, after reversing from downplaying inflation in July to calling the 2% target non negotiable at Jackson Hole.

Elvis sits down with veteran macro trader Jonny Matthews, 25 years of institutional experience at Brevan Howard and Citigroup, to unpack why he isn't rushing to buy bonds despite the highest yields in a generation, what August's payrolls really mean for the Fed, and why Japan's own hawkish pivot is a warning against betting on long yields falling.

In this episode:
Why elevated yields reflect strength as much as strain, and the three forces, inflation, fiscal discipline and corporate supply, keeping them there
The US deficit at 5.5 to 6% of GDP, with next to no political will to close it
Nominal GDP running near 8%, and why Treasury yields still have catching up to do
August's payrolls: a 106,000 six month average against the 30,000 to 35,000 needed just to hold unemployment steady
Why the case for rent disinflation may already be stalling, against Fed governor Waller's dovish read
PCE inflation above target for 64 straight months, with services alone contributing 2.5 percentage points
Why the Fed's September decision now hinges almost entirely on Friday's CPI print
What Japan's hawkish pivot did to its yield curve, and why it's a warning against being short long bonds

Jonny has spent 25 years trading macro at the highest institutional level. This is not retail speculation or headline chasing. It is rigorous, independent analysis from someone who has sat at the table.

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