Stephan Livera Podcast – Détails, épisodes et analyse

Secession may seem like a dirty word, but it has happened many times in history and it’s worth understanding the political and economic benefits it can yield. Ryan McMaken, Executive Editor and Economist at the Mises Institute joins me to discuss his book, Breaking Away. 

Summary

In this conversation, Stephan and Ryan McMaken discuss the topic of secession and its advantages. They explore the historical and theoretical context of secession, highlighting the benefits of radical decentralization and the success of small, economically prosperous states. 

They also examine the conditions that enable breakaway states, including economic factors, military power, and ethnic or nationalistic identity. The conversation emphasizes the need for people to come to terms with the reality that the federal government cannot offer long-term economic prosperity and that unity does not necessarily mean shared values or interests. 

The conversation explores the challenges and potential solutions related to secession and breakaway movements. It discusses the negotiation process for exiting a larger government entity, the impact on national debt and pension obligations, and the historical examples of successful secession. 

The conversation also touches on the Brexit movement and the potential for secession movements in the United States. It emphasizes the importance of developing competing elites at the state level and gradually asserting more local control over policies and resources.

Takeaways

• Radical decentralization and the success of small, economically prosperous states are key advantages of secession.

• Breakaway states often emerge when the benefits of political unity no longer outweigh the benefits of separation.

• Conditions that enable secession include economic factors, military power, and ethnic or nationalistic identity.

• The federal government cannot guarantee long-term economic prosperity, and unity does not necessarily mean shared values or interests. Secession and breakaway movements require careful negotiation, especially regarding national debt and pension obligations.

• Historical examples show that debt write-downs and negotiations are common in secession processes.

• Brexit can be seen as a failure or a missed opportunity, depending on one's perspective.

• Competing elites at the state level can challenge the entrenched interests of the federal government.

• Gradual steps, such as asserting control over border policy and creating state-level institutions, can pave the way for secession.

• Developing local revenue sources is crucial to reduce reliance on federal funds and assert more autonomy.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:00) - What is Secession and why care about it?(05:25) - Why has the number of countries tripled since WW2?(09:00) - Why be Pro-secession?

(14:45) - Pros & Cons of a ‘Large’ State; Political Decentralization 

(19:28) - Sponsors

(21:45) - Advantages of smaller countries

(27:30) - Conditions that enable the pathway to Secession 

(33:11) - Sponsors

(41:07) - Dealing with Government Debt & obligations in a Secession

(46:23) - Was Brexit a failure?

(56:28) - Secession in the USA: A distant dream?

(1:02:42) - Elites vs. Counter-elites

(1:06:58) - Secession movements in the USA

(1:15:39) - Closing thoughts 

Links: 

• https://mises.org/profile/ryan-mcmaken

• https://mises.org/library/book/breaking-away-case-secession-radical-decentralization-and-smaller-polities 

• https://x.com/ryanmcmaken

Sponsors:

• Bold Bitcoin

• CoinKite.com (code LIVERA)

• mempool.space/accelerator 

Stephan Livera links:

• Follow me on X: @stephanlivera

• Subscribe to the podcast

• Subscribe to Substack
  

My friend Pierre Rochard (VP Research at Riot Platforms) rejoins me on the show to discuss some of his latest views.

Summary

In this conversation, Stephan and Pierre discuss the concept of long-term savings in Bitcoin and its product-market fit. Pierre introduces a metric for measuring long-term savings by looking at the age of UTXOs (unspent transaction outputs). They also explore the idea of rebalancing and the importance of aligning financial decisions with personal goals. The conversation then shifts to the challenges of running a profitable business in a Bitcoin standard and the role of passive index equity investing in a hyper Bitcoinized world. Further, Pierre and Stephan discuss the implications of individuals and governments holding Bitcoin. They explore the idea of investing time in Bitcoin rather than just money, and how businesses can leverage Bitcoin without large capital investments. They also touch on the moral implications of educating others about Bitcoin and the potential cultural changes that may occur on a Bitcoin standard. The conversation concludes with a discussion on government adoption of Bitcoin and the impact it may have on society.

Takeaways

• Bitcoin has found product-market fit in the area of long-term savings, as evidenced by the increasing number of UTXOs that have not moved in more than a year.

• The age of Bitcoin UTXOs can provide insights into the behavior of hodlers and the overall health of the Bitcoin network.

• Rebalancing should be driven by personal goals and values, rather than trying to time the market or follow others' advice.

• In a Bitcoin standard, it may be challenging for businesses to outperform Bitcoin in terms of returns, but there may still be a role for active investing and supporting entrepreneurial ventures.

• Passive index equity investing may become less prevalent in a hyper Bitcoinized world, as individuals prioritize holding Bitcoin and investing in businesses they are actively involved in. Investing time in Bitcoin can be just as valuable as investing money.

• Businesses can leverage Bitcoin without large capital investments.

• Educating others about Bitcoin is important, but it's not necessary to force people onto the Bitcoin journey.

• Cultural changes on a Bitcoin standard may include a shift towards lower time preference and more focus on family and spirituality.

• Government adoption of Bitcoin can move them away from being a state and towards a more decentralized entity.

• The amount of Bitcoin a government holds should be based on their immediate needs and the uncertainty of the future.

• Government adoption of Bitcoin can accelerate Bitcoin adoption among individuals.

• The moral implications of the government holding Bitcoin depend on whether it leads to the violation of the non-aggression principle.

• Taxation with Bitcoin becomes more difficult, which may lead to a reduction in government spending.

• Advocating for a strategic reserve of Bitcoin can lead to more conversations and ultimately more Bitcoin adoption.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(00:57) - Bitcoin’s Product-Market Fit for Long-Term Savings

(02:12) - Measuring Long-Term Savings with UTXO Age

(10:56) - Should you Rebalance your UTXOs?; Financial Decision-Making through Rebalancing(21:17) - Sponsors

(23:57) - Is Running a Business on a Bitcoin Standard Profitable?

(33:22) - Passive Index Equity Investing in a Hyper Bitcoinized World

(39:43) - Trading your Time & Expertise for Bitcoin

(44:32) - Educating Others about Bitcoin

(48:35) - Societal & Cultural Changes on a Bitcoin Standard

(53:07) - Sponsors

(1:02:00) - Should the State Hold Bitcoin?; Neutrality vs Central Planning 

(1:13:41) - Advocating for a Strategic Reserve of Bitcoin; Accelerating Bitcoin Adoption

Links: 

• https://x.com/BitcoinPierre 

• Pierre’s analysis: https://x.com/BitcoinPierre/status/1831163386182164937 

• Hoppe article mentioned: https://mises.org/mises-daily/yield-money-held-reconsidered 

• Blocktime Podcast by Riot: https://www.blocktimebyriot.com/ 

Sponsors:

• Bold Bitcoin

• CoinKite.com (code LIVERA)

• mempool.space/accelerator 

• Nomadcapitalist.com/apply

Stephan Livera links:

• Follow me on X: @stephanlivera

• Subscribe to the podcast

• Subscribe to Substack

Can you retire on Bitcoin savings? What do the numbers look like? Morgen Rochard, Founder and Lead Financial Planner of Origin Wealth Advisers joins me to explain: 

• The 4% rule and how to modify it

• Being conservative in your planning

• CPI inflation being hard to predict

• Do you rebalance? 

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:03) - 4% rule, Bitcoin & FIRE

(04:41) - HODLers vs TradFi allocation

(12:34) - Why you should be conservative with Bitcoin retirement

(20:16) - What if you retire during a Bitcoin bull run?

(22:24) - Sponsors

(24:55) - Should you borrow against your Bitcoin stack?

(31:41) - Where are the fiat financial planners going wrong?

(37:34) - Separating Bitcoin from ‘Crypto’

(40:55) - The shift in sentiment about HODLing Bitcoin

(42:39) - Sponsors

(44:51) - Should you rebalance your Bitcoin allocation?

(49:40) - Estimating currency debasement 

(56:12) - Bitcoin’s CAGR

Links: 

• https://bitcoinfinancialadvisorsnetwork.com/does-bitcoin-make-retirement-planning-obsolete/ 

• https://x.com/MorgenRochard 

• https://www.originwa.com/ 

Sponsors:

• Swan.com (code LIVERA)

• CoinKite.com (code LIVERA)

• Mempool.space

• Nomadcapitalist.com/apply

Stephan Livera links:

• Follow me on X: @stephanlivera

• Subscribe to the podcast

• Subscribe to Substack

Lawrence Lepard of Equity Management Associates rejoins me to talk about all the things that are breaking: 

• Cost of living crisis
• Are we going into recession and what timing? 
• Boomer hate
• US government debt
• Policy responses
• Social responses
• The waiting game

Site:

• Site: Ema2.com  
• Twitter: @LawrenceLepard

Sponsors:

• Pacific Bitcoin Festival (code LIVERA)
• CoinKite.com (code LIVERA)
• Mempool.space
• Base58 

Stephan Livera links:

• Follow me on Twitter @stephanlivera
• Subscribe to the podcast

How can lightning users secure themselves even further? Just like how hardware wallets and secure elements can help secure your cold storage coins, Validating Lightning Signer (VLS) is a project aiming to help improve the way lightning security works. In this conversation with project co-founder Ken Sedgwick, we chat:

• Why VLS is needed
• How VLS works
• Implementing part of the lightning state machine
• What rules are covered? 
• What lightning implementations are supported? 
• The impact of lightning protocol changes
• Interactions with watchtowers? 
• How you can get involved

Links:

• Twitter: @VLSProject
• Site: Validating Lightning Signer

Sponsors:

• Pacific Bitcoin Festival (code LIVERA)
• CoinKite.com (code LIVERA)
• Mempool.space
• Base58 

Stephan Livera links:

• Follow me on Twitter @stephanlivera
• Subscribe to the podcast

Dr Maxim Orlovsky joins me on the show to walk through RGB, a smart contract layer for Bitcoin. We talk through:

• Some of the history of RGB
• Client side validation as a concept
• RGB ecosystem
• What it can be used for - tokens, bitcoin finance
• MyCitadel wallet
• What’s next for RGB

Links:

• Site: RGB
• Twitter: @dr_orlovsky
• Personal site: Dr. Maxim Orlovsky
• Github: Dr. Maxim Orlovsky

Sponsors:

• Pacific Bitcoin Festival (code LIVERA)
• CoinKite.com (code LIVERA)
• Mempool.space
• Base58 

Stephan Livera links:

• Follow me on Twitter @stephanlivera
• Subscribe to the podcast

Andrew Henderson, Founder of Nomad Capitalist rejoins me on the show to talk:

• Home country bias
• Looking beyond headlines 
• Evolution in citizenship
• Global minimum tax and ‘the international community’
• CBDC
• Nomad Capitalist Live

Links:

• Twitter: @nomadcapitalist 
• Site: Nomadcapitalist.com

Sponsors: 

• Pacific Bitcoin Festival (code LIVERA)
• CoinKite.com (code LIVERA)
• Mempool.space
• Base58 

Stephan Livera links:

• Follow me on Twitter @stephanlivera
• Subscribe to the podcast

Jonathan Chester, Founder/CEO of Bitwage joins me to talk about his experience setting up the company and enabling more people to earn Bitcoin:

• The story of growing Bitwage
• The market size for payroll
• Exploring Lightning payouts 
• Remote working as a trend
• HODLing as the use

Links:

• Twitter: @Bitwage
• Site: Bitwage 

Sponsors:

• Pacific Bitcoin Festival (code LIVERA)
• CoinKite.com (code LIVERA)
• Mempool.space

Stephan Livera links:

• Follow me on Twitter @stephanlivera
• Subscribe to the podcast

Mara joins me to talk about his adventures in Argentina, and his thoughts on:

• Geo arbitrage
• Rules in theory, rules in practice
• FX in Argentina
• Bitcoin use in Argentina
• Argentina’s property market
• Where things are going with CBDCs

Mara links:

• Twitter: @BowTiedMara
• Substack: BowTiedMara - Geoarbitrage & Mobility Assets
• Sovspot: Live & Work from anywhere

Sponsors:

• Pacific Bitcoin Festival (code LIVERA)
• CoinKite.com (code LIVERA)
• Mempool.space

Stephan Livera:

• Follow me on Twitter @stephanlivera
• Subscribe to the podcast

Author, digital nomad and web entrepreneur Olivier Roland joins me to talk about his issues with AML and his very interesting views on where the world is going in the age of remote working and internet communications.

• The problem with KYC / AML
• FATCA
• Taxes and the Sovereign Individual thesis
• Digital Nomadism disrupting nation states

Links:

• Twitter: @DisruptiveHoriz
• Site: Disruptive Horizons

Relevant prior episodes:

• SLP318 Ronald Pol - The Ineffectiveness of AML
• SLP424 Simon Lelieveldt The problem with FATF and AML Laws

Sponsors:

• Pacific Bitcoin Festival (code LIVERA)
• CoinKite.com (code LIVERA)
• Mempool.space

Stephan Livera links:

• Follow me on Twitter @stephanlivera
• Subscribe to the podcast