Explorez tous les épisodes du podcast Sound Investing
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|---|---|---|---|
| M1 Finance Updated 2024 | 02 Oct 2024 | 00:53:18 | |
Chris & Paul walk through the changes to The Merriman Financial Education Foundation’s relationship with M1 Finance, including affiliate commissions, a new emphasis on accurate messaging, and improved pre-made portfolio shortcuts (M1 calls them Pies). The new Pies now include all of our Sound Investing equity portfolios, taxable and tax-deferred fixed-income portfolios, and 5-year increments of the Merriman Aggressive Target-Date Glide Path allocations. Chris shows how easy it is to mix them to get the equity and fixed income ratio you want. He also shows how to approximate intermediate years along the target-date glide path. Finally, Paul challenges him to create a mix of several different equity strategies, which he demonstrates. Following the demonstrations, they briefly discuss how M1 compares to Fidelity’s offering. They close with a request for listener questions to be used in an upcoming interview with M1 Finance’s founder and CEO, Brian Barnes. If you have any, please email them to chriskpedersen@gmail.com. M1-Related Disclosures This podcast and video were recorded on September 12, 2024. All information is subject to change. The opinions expressed are solely those of the authors and do not reflect the views of M1. They are for informational purposes only and are not a recommendation of an investment strategy or to buy or sell any security in any account. They are also not research reports and are not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision. Prior to making any investment decision, you are encouraged to consult your personal investment, legal, and tax advisors. M1 is a technology company offering a range of financial products and services. “M1” refers to M1 Holdings Inc., and its wholly-owned, separate affiliates M1 Finance LLC, M1 Spend LLC, and M1 Digital LLC. If you choose to transfer your account to another broker-dealer, only the full shares are guaranteed to transfer. Fractional shares may need to be liquidated and transferred as cash. All examples above are hypothetical, do not reflect any specific investments, are for informational purposes only, and should not be considered an offer to buy or sell any products. All investing involves risk, including the risk of losing the money you invest. Brokerage products and services are offered by M1 Finance LLC, Member FINRA / SIPC, and a wholly owned subsidiary of M1 Holdings, Inc. M1 does not provide investment advice, and this is not an offer or solicitation of an offer, or advice to buy or sell any security, and you are encouraged to consult your personal investment, legal, and tax advisors. M1 is not recommending or endorsing this investment by making it available to its customers. | |||
| Lessons for Bogleheads | 25 Sep 2024 | 00:29:52 | |
In preparation for his presentation at the Bogleheads Conference Paul reread John Bogle’s “The Little Book of Common Sense Investing” He has been recommending the book since 2007 but in 2017 Wiley published the updated and revised edition. There is some terrific new material in the revised edition. | |||
| The Best 3 Charts We Recommend | 24 Jul 2024 | 01:03:54 | |
Paul, Daryl, and Chris are together again to discuss what they each think are the best single charts or graphs to help people understand investing and make good decisions. Paul starts by asking Chris and Daryl how much we can rely on the past to predict the future. Paul follows that with a deep dive into his choice for the most important chart -- the quilt chart. Daryl follows up with his choice -- a discussion of the tell-tale chart.Chris finishes with his choice: a discussion of the 2 Funds for Life Fine Tuning Table. Tables referrenced- Table J1b- Equity Index Returns: 1-yr Periods (1928-2023) Table K1a- 4 US Asset Class Indexes & 4 Fund Combo Relative Return Ranking (1928-2023) Table K2a Asset Classes & 4 Fund Combo (1928-2023) - Return Rank Frequency Table K1b S&P 500 & US SCV Relative Return Rank Comparison (1928-2023) Table K8a Sound Investing Port. Returns: 10 Yr Periods (1928-2023) Table K6a Sound Investing Portfolios, S&P 500 & US SCV Relative Return Ranking (1928-2023) Table K7a Sound Investing Portfolios, S&P 500 & US SCV (1928-2023) - Return Rank Frequency
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| 20 Minutes to Double Your Lifetime Spending Power | 02 Nov 2022 | 00:53:43 | |
Chris Pedersen, Director of Research for The Merriman Financial Education Foundation, joins Paul Merriman to explain and elaborate on his ideas and tables published as the cover story in the AAII Journal(October 2022), titled, “Double Your Lifetime Purchasing Power in 20 Minutes.” Podcast listeners should know there is a slideshow available on the YouTube video version. Call To Action! Here are a few simple ways to support the financial education work of The Merriman Financial Education Foundation, a registered 501(c)3. In so doing you help better the lives of individuals, families and communities, creating more opportunities for all.
Support our mission by making a tax-deductible donation to the Foundation. Thank you! | |||
| 30 Ways to make another million—Really | 26 Oct 2022 | 01:25:33 | |
The focus of most of the work we do at The Merriman Financial Education Foundation is to help investors put together portfolios that we believe will produce higher rates of return per unit of risk. In this podcast we look at the math of making more money, as well as specific decisions that are likely to lead to better returns. Leaving the simple math, Paul uses historical returns to compare hypothetical returns and the choices investors must make. Everyone of these choices is likely a million dollar decision:
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| How To Rebalance Your Portfolio | 19 Oct 2022 | 01:10:08 | |
Paul Merriman, Chris Pedersen and Daryl Bahls each share his studies and comments about rebalancing a portfolio—how often, how much change before rebalancing, and when does it make sense not to rebalance? They also answer listener/viewer questions and Paul makes a special offer for a free chapter from Larry Swedroe’s book, Your Complete Guide to a Successful & Secure Retirement. (See details in ‘Links’ below). Q&A Which asset classes should be in taxable accounts and which in tax-advantaged accounts? “I want to help my 36-year-old daughter establish a retirement portfolio. What do you think of using Vanguard Life Strategy Moderate Growth Fund (VSMGX)?” “Can I expect to invest in the funds you recommend today and hold them for the rest of my life?” Daryl’s answer is yes, using our 4-Fund portfolio. He shows why by comparing the Total Market Index funds to our “No-Nonsense Portfolios” in Table 1a: “No-Nonsense Portfolios for Sound Investing: Equity Asset Allocation” and Table 2a.1, which shows “Comparison Data,” drawing special attention to our U.S. Only 4-Fund Portfolio over the Total Market Index and S&P 500. MORE LINKS You can get your copy of Larry Swedroe’s book, Your Complete Guide to a Successful & Secure Retirement at: https://amzn.to/3gb3noz. If you purchase via our link, it may result in our Foundation receiving a small commission that supports our financial education outreach at no additional cost to you. Read this FREE chapter from Larry’s book, “The Asset Location Decision,” courtesy of Mr. Swedroe and publisher Harriman House. | |||
| 10 Life-Changing Lessons from The Merriman Financial Education Foundation | 12 Oct 2022 | 01:53:52 | |
In this presentation to the Boston Bogleheads® Chapter (Sept. 12, 2022), Paul presents the “10 most important new lessons learned by The Merriman Financial Education Foundation.” The foundation is celebrating its 10-year anniversary of helping the DIY investor make sound investment decisions for a lifetime and become the best advisor to the most important investor on earth…you! Paul also gives an overview of the 12-million-dollar decisions covered in his book, We’re Talking Millions: 12 Simple Ways to Supercharge Your Retirement. Stay tuned to about 1:20 for some great questions: About The John C. Bogle Center for Financial Literacy (https://boglecenter.net/): The Center envisions a world of well-informed, capable, and empowered investors. Community outreach is achieved through the Bogleheads forum, wiki, and blog, as well as in-person and virtual Bogleheads chapters worldwide. | |||
| The biggest challenge to successful investing | 05 Oct 2022 | 00:35:55 | |
Inspired by a conversation with George Sisti, Paul's good friend and trusted Truth Teller, Paul makes the case that successful investing is 99.9% defense. (See article referenced below). The good news is: almost every one of these defensive steps are easily applied to managing a portfolio. And once you set the process in motion, it should be relatively easy to stay the course. Of all the defensive steps we should be able to control personally, there is one hurdle for investors that often leads to serious, and likely costly mistakes: maintaining the commitment to buy-and-hold in bear markets! While buy-and-hold sounded realistic when the portfolio was established, the experience of losing 30% (average bear market loss) is a difficult pill to swallow. Human nature is shouting, “Don’t be a patsy! Why sit there and watch your life savings disappear without a fight or flight to safety?” Paul discusses the best ways he knows to help control the temptation to cut your losses. You can read more by and about George at: https://paulmerriman.com/george-sisti-certified-financial-planner/ Call To Action! Here are a few simple ways to support the financial education work of The Merriman Financial Education Foundation, a registered 501(c)3. In so doing you help better the lives of individuals, families and communities, creating more opportunities for all.
Support our mission by making a tax-deductible donation to the Foundation. Thank you! | |||
| Is This The Worst Bear Market Ever? | 28 Sep 2022 | 00:52:39 | |
In this interview with Ken Roberts, host of Ken’s Bulls and Bears Report, a weekly radio show in Reno, NV, Paul addresses questions and more: 1. Should investors believe the “experts” predictions of catastrophic future returns for the stock market? 2. What are the most important investment decisions that people have to make? 3. What are the biggest financial mistakes that retirees make? 4. What are the new tools your Foundation has developed to help people invest in equity funds? 5. What is the one asset class that every stock investor should own? 6. Is it really possible to invest successfully with just two funds? 7. Are there really 150 model portfolios that are performing well? 8. What are those 7 factors investors should be focused on in building their retirement portfolios? 9. How can the combo of S&P 500 and Small Cap Value be less risky than the S&P 500 itself? 10. What are your thoughts about the bear market we are in, and is this one of the worst bear markets ever? 11. Should people include cryptocurrencies in their portfolio? Call To Action! Here are a few simple ways to support the financial education work of The Merriman Financial Education Foundation, a registered 501(c)3. In so doing you help better the lives of individuals, families and communities, creating more opportunities for all.
Thank you! | |||
| The 7 Biggest Investment Decisions or Are You Leaving Millions on the Table? | 21 Sep 2022 | 01:03:44 | |
Paul is interviewed by Jordon Grumet, MD., aka “Doc G,” personal finance expert, hospice doctor and host of the “Earn and Invest” podcast. They discuss Paul’s “7 Biggest Investment Decisions” and more, as Paul addresses these questions:
Paul recommends Jordon Grumet’s new book, Taking Stock: A Hospice Doctor's Advice on Financial Independence, Building Wealth, and Living a Regret-Free Life Call To Action! Here are a few simple ways to support the financial education work of The Merriman Financial Education Foundation, a registered 501(c)3. In so doing you help better the lives of individuals, families and communities, creating more opportunities for all.
Support our mission by making a tax-deductible donation to the Foundation. | |||
| How do you manage investments during major declines? | 14 Sep 2022 | 00:54:45 | |
Tune in Sept. 17 at noon (eastern time) for a Zoom presentation and Q&A on “The 10 most important new lessons of the past 10 years,” as Paul Merriman addresses the Boston Bogleheads Chapter. See info below. In this broadcast, Paul, founder of The Merriman Financial Education Foundation, Chris Pedersen, Director of Research, and Daryl Bahls, Director of Analytics, answer a variety of questions from our listeners, viewers and readers. See links below. 1. Can you compare 3 years of returns of your Vanguard ETF, Vanguard mutual fund and Best-In-Class (BIC) ETF recommendations? Chris answers and discusses the likely reason for the BIC outperformance. 2. Would it make sense to get rid of the small-cap blend fund and hold 1/3 each of large-cap blend, large-cap value and small-cap value? (The questioner notes that small-cap blend rarely outperforms small-cap value.) Daryl answers this by discussing his findings by using the 1928-2019 Quilt Chart. 3. What are the pros and cons of multi- and single-factor funds? Chris responds. 4. Should micro-cap value be considered as a part of a diversified portfolio? Daryl responds. 5. Which is more risky, large-cap blend (S&P 500) or large-cap value? Daryl responds. 6. How should I manage investments during major declines? Chris and Daryl answer. Mark Your Calendar: Paul invites listeners to a Zoom presentation on Saturday, Sept. 17, 2022 at Noon (Eastern Time), sponsored by The Boston Bogleheads Chapter. It’s free and open to the public. As The Merriman Financial Education Foundation is in its 10th year of educating investors, Paul will focus most of the presentation on the "10 most important new lessons of the past 10 years,” followed by Q&As. Here is the zoom link for this meeting: https://us06web.zoom.us/j/89860498182?pwd=OVFZeWtKNGh2bTVGQUtzeUlPMGlOUT09 Meeting ID: 898 6049 8182 Passcode: 311045 Links: The Merriman Financial Education Foundation: https://paulmerriman.com/the-merriman-financial-education-foundation/ Vanguard ETF: https://paulmerriman.com/vanguard-tax-deferred-etf-portfolios/ Vanguard mutual fund: https://paulmerriman.com/vanguard-tax-deferred-etf-portfolios/ Best-In-Class (BIC) ETF recommendations: https://paulmerriman.com/best-in-class-etf-recommendations/ 1928-2019 Quilt Charts: https://paulmerriman.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Sound-Investing-Portfolio-Quilt-Chart-1928-2021-V1.3-1.pdf Boston Bogleheads: https://www.bogleheads.org/blog/portfolio/boston-bogleheads/ | |||
| Should you believe predictions of catastrophic future returns? | 07 Sep 2022 | 00:44:20 | |
In this podcast Paul invites listeners to an upcoming free event and addresses the following topics: • Jeremy Grantham and Harry Dent have made bold predictions about catastrophic future returns. Should we take them seriously? • How have the Vanguard and Best In Class ETF recommendations performed this year? • Would investing in VTI give the same returns as the 4-Fund of Life portfolio? • Is it too late to reduce your equity exposure if you can’t sleep at night? • How accurate and meaningful are the Sound Investing charts showing returns that go back to 1928? Mark Your Calendar: Paul invites listeners to a Zoom presentation on Saturday, Sept. 17, 2022 at Noon (ET), sponsored by The Boston Bogleheads Chapter. It’s free and open to the public. As The Merriman Financial Education Foundation is in its 10th year of educating investors, Paul will focus most of the presentation on the "10 most important new lessons of the past 10 years." Here is the Zoom link for this presentation: https://us06web.zoom.us/j/89860498182?pwd=OVFZeWtKNGh2bTVGQUtzeUlPMGlOUT09 Meeting ID: 898 6049 8182 You Can Support Financial Education! Here are a few simple ways to support the financial education work of The Merriman Financial Education Foundation, a registered 501(c)3. In so doing you help better the lives of individuals, families and communities, creating more opportunities for all.
Thank you! | |||
| The most important investment decisions | 31 Aug 2022 | 01:20:41 | |
Enjoy this wide-ranging conversation between Rob Berger and Paul Merriman on Rob’s “Financial Freedom Show” (YouTube video channel) as they discuss these important investor topics: Timestamps 22:59 - Equity portfolio 27:00 - Deciding/4 fund strategy 30:13 - Links below/Quilt chart 45:19 - Stock vs Bond allocation/Market Timing 49:37 - Investing strategies/risk 50:50 - Retirement withdrawal strategy 53:14 - Challenge 55:23 - Glide Path 58:18 - Market Timer's strategy with the current market 1:00:59 - AVUV over VBR 1:08:10 - Measuring value 1:10:46 - Paul's Bond Portfolio 1:12:35 - REIT's 1:13:55 - Tired 1:15:21 - What's next for Paul 1:18:33 - Bogelheads conference 1:19:51 - Links below/Financial Freedom Recorded with a live Zoom audience, they also fielded questions. Some comments on Rob’s video page include: “My two favorite financial experts alive today discussing personal finance together. Perfect! Thank you both for your time, talent and wisdom.” Links to help investors: This link gives the case for the 10 U.S. and international equity asset classes: https://paulmerriman.com/ultimate-buy-and-hold-strategy/ This link shows 9 different ways to combine the 10 equity asset classes and the 52 year returns for each. This link provides data combining each of the 9 equity portfolios along with different percentages of fixed income: This link shows the impact of using the 9 portfolios and all the combinations of fixed income assuming an initial annual investment of $1,000 with a 3% annual increase on investment: This link shows the impact of using the 9 different equity/fixed income as a source of fixed retirement distributions. Each years distribution is adjusted for inflation. Beginning distributions range from 3 to 6 percent: This link shows the impact of annual distributions based on a percentage of assets, without inflation adjustment. Distributions range from 3 to 6 percent: This link compares the annual to 20 year returns of 4 major U.S. asset classes: This links to the Merriman Lifetime Investment Calculator. The calculator can be used for investors in both the accumulation and distribution periods of their investment life: | |||
| How to Stay the Course in Scary Times | 17 Jul 2024 | 00:29:01 | |
One of the most challenging aspects of being a 100% do-it-yourself investor (DYI) is dealing with the emotions of wanting to make major changes in a portfolio due to what may easily be seen as catastrophic news. The DYI doesn’t have a professional to help them think through the difficult times like the 2008 meltdown, the October 19, 1987 22% one day decline or currently, the upcoming election results. Paul believes one of the best sources of professional support a DYI could have is George Sisti’s, "On Course Financial Planning Vectors" newsletter. On this podcast Paul reads Sisti’s July issue focused on “The Election!” as well as the misleading “noise” that investors get from the typical predictions that Wall Street produces this time of year. Paul recommends investors read George's letters anytime they are feeling uncomfortable with the market. He even suggests that investors download his archived letters for future reading. | |||
| The Biggest Financial Mistakes Retirees Make | 24 Aug 2022 | 01:08:32 | |
Paul talks to retirees about the handful of decisions you can make that can either benefit you and your heirs or cost you millions. He covers: · Ways to make or lose .5% · The best combination of equity asset classes · Fixed and flexible distribution strategies · How to best analyze recommended strategies · And other major decisions and topics, like: When to take Social Security? How much and when to spend savings? Spending taxable vs tax deferred vs. tax free? When to pass risk to others? When to get professional help? Elder abuse, and more. Links: Get your free copy of We’re Talking Millions! 12 Ways to Supercharge Your Retirement: You Can Support Financial Education!
3. Use our M1 Finance affiliate link to set up a brokerage account and use our portfolio suggestions. If you fund your account with a minimum of $1,000, our foundation will receive a one-time affiliate fee —at no cost to you—which helps support our financial education projects.
Thank you! | |||
| This new tool helps you invest in specific funds | 17 Aug 2022 | 00:56:54 | |
This video and podcast introduces the "Sound Investing Portfolio Fixed Allocation Configurator.” This new tool helps investors figure out how to implement the portfolios we analyze using different fund families. Chris Pedersen, Director of Research joins Paul Merriman to discuss Chris’ latest investor education project. • Is the 2 Fund Portfolio (half each S&P 500 and small cap value) really as good as the 10 fund Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio? • What advice do you have for a 73-year-old investor who is about to fire their advisor and become a do-it-yourself investor? • Do you suggest reinvesting dividends from your ETFs or do you save them to reinvest in other ETFs? • I am investing money for my mother in several ETFs. What time of day do you suggest making the investment? Here are the links mentioned in the podcast. Portfolio Configurator Preview: https://bit.ly/3QL77tQ Long-Term Bond Returns Study: The Merriman Financial Education Lifetime Investment Calculator: https://paulmerriman.com/lifetime-investment-calculator/ | |||
| The one asset class you must own | 10 Aug 2022 | 00:25:54 | |
Paul presents, “The #1 Reason I Want Small Cap Value in Your Portfolio” with compelling evidence as to why SCV should be the one asset class you must own. This is further illuminated by the tables and charts shown in the video presentation and available in the slide show and handout. (links below). This presentation was recorded at the “Retiremeet 2022” conference, sponsored annually by our friends at Vestory and billed as “The Northwest’s Premier Retirement Event.” Click here for handout: https://7112649.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/7112649/HAND OUT Paul Merriman Retiremeet-2022-Final.pdf Click here for the slide show: https://7112649.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/7112649/PRESENTATION RETIREMEET PAUL MERRIMAN.pdf Learn more about to the event: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=as9D8TDZ0xI View all the event presentations: To benefit from Vestory’s investment knowledge, sign up for their podcast at talkingrealmoney.com and their free monthly newsletter at realinvestingjournal.com. Call To Action! Here are a few simple ways to support the financial education work of The Merriman Financial Education Foundation, a registered 501(c)3. In so doing you help better the lives of individuals, families and communities, creating more opportunities for all.
Thank you! | |||
| Invest Successfully with Just Two Funds | 03 Aug 2022 | 00:23:10 | |
Are you seeking a simple but effective lifetime investment strategy? In this podcast and video, Katie Gatti, host of “Money With Katie,” interviews Chris Pedersen, Director of Research for The Merriman Financial Education Foundation and author of Two Funds For Life – A quest for simple & effective investing strategies. But what if you do want to manage your own investments? Then what? Before I learned about Paul Merriman and Chris Pedersen’s Two Funds for Life strategy, I never really knew what to tell people aside from do your research and best of luck to you, madam. So this week, I’m joined by Chris (who created the Two Funds for Life model) to talk about an amazing 80/20 solution for getting proper, low-cost diversification with only two funds (hence the name). Not only that, but the “rebalancing” is more or less taken care of for you. Chris’ Book, Two Funds For Life, provides a deep dive into the subject and is available at Amazon (https://amzn.to/3BxTFoM) and other online booksellers. For a simple explanation of the Two Funds for Life strategy, read We’re Talking Millions—12 Simple Ways to Supercharge Your Retirement. Available at Amazon, Audible, and as a free download on our website. Your purchase helps support our Foundation’s financial education outreach. Find out more about The Merriman Financial Education Foundation at: Katie Gatti presents a weekly newsletter and blog on personal finance. Visit her site: https://moneywithkatie.com/. In January 2022, her blog and podcast brand, “Money with Katie,” was acquired by Business Insider's Morning Brew, https://www.morningbrew.com/contributor/moneywithkatie | |||
| 150 Portfolios Better Than Yours | 27 Jul 2022 | 01:19:58 | |
Paul addressed the AAII Los Angeles Chapter with “The Inside Story on the ‘150 Portfolios Better Than Yours’,” on June 18, 2022. In 2014, Dr. James Dahle, of White Coat Investor, wrote a column titled, "150 Portfolios Better Than Yours." The article included a link to a list of almost every popular model portfolio, including recommendations from Vanguard, Warren Buffett, Ray Dalio, Betterment, and a host of others. The list is now over 200. · How to select the best equity asset classes to construct the best portfolio · How to build a diversified portfolio of equity asset classes · The best way to compare the long-term returns of your portfolio For the PowerPoint accompanying this video/podcast, go to: https://paulmerriman.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/150-Portfolios-Better-Than-Yours-AAII.pdf Learn more about the American Association of Individual Investors at www.aaii.com. AAII members: log into your online AAII Local Chapter Community at https://community.aaii.com. Click here for a direct link to the Los Angeles, CA online chapter community: https://community.aaii.com/communities/community-home?CommunityKey=2a40c785-42cd-4ce3-8c3f-458a13346a5f | |||
| 7 Things You Should Be Doing With Your Retirement Portfolio | 19 Jul 2022 | 00:56:39 | |
In this engaging interview, Paul talks with Stan The Annuity Man on his “Fun with Annuities” podcast. (https://www.stantheannuityman.com/). They discuss:
Key Takeaways:
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| How can the combo of S&P 500 and Small Cap Value be less risky than the S&P 500 by itself? (and other topics) | 13 Jul 2022 | 01:01:37 | |
Paul Merriman and Chris Pedersen, Director of Research for The Merriman Financial Education Foundation, address a number of topics and questions: • Is the combination of the S&P 500 and Small Cap Value really more risky than the S&P by itself? • Why the exceptional performance of Chris’ Best In Class (BIC) during the first 6 months of 2022? • If small and value outperformed large and growth, why did the Total Market Index underperformed the S&P 500 by more than 1%? • Are the higher costs of the Avantis Funds likely to pay a higher premium than lower cost Vanguard funds? • A first time investor, who has invested in Avantis Small Cap Value ETF “for life,” wants to know, “Can I plan on leaving it in this fund forever?” • Jeff, a follower of our Foundation’s work, thanks us for our educational material but states that “the past results you spend so much time reviewing” have nothing to do with how he invests. Paul addresses who he thinks is actually keeping Jeff committed to his asset allocation. • Is it better to own mid-cap funds instead of a combination of small- and large-cap funds? Paul and Chris each share their beliefs in response to this common question. Chris recommends Rob Burger’s video discussion of Avantis Small-Cap Value. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MdShSQcScsk Rob Berger, lawyer, investor, podcaster, blogger and author of Retire Before Mom & Dad, is one of our Truth Tellers and we will be writing about him in the coming months. Since 2007, Rob has run the financial blog doughroller.net and contributed to Forbes, US News, AOL, and Business Insider and been featured in HuffPost. For more on Chris’ research results for the first 6 months of 2022, see The Worst Bear Market Ever | |||
| The Worst Bear Market Ever? | 06 Jul 2022 | 00:41:15 | |
While the headlines have focused on the first 6 months of 2022 as “The Worst First 6 Months of the Last 50 Years!”, the reality is that well-diversified investors have suffered modest losses. In this podcast, Paul reviews the major losses of growth stocks, cryptocurrencies, and barely bear market losses in the major indices, as well as the returns of the Best-In-Class (BIC) returns for all of the major asset classes. The good news is in both the equity and bond markets, the BIC performed better than the averages. The bad news is they were still losses. Paul compares the difference in returns for the average fund in each asset class, each asset class index, and the return of the Best-In-Class ETF recommendations by Chris Pedersen, as well as the BIC ETF recommendations with similar Vanguard ETFs. Bond funds are another area of concern for investors this year and Paul also compares the BIC bond fund returns individually as well as a portfolio, and the returns for the S&P 500 and Total Market Index. See Fine Tuning Tables: https://paulmerriman.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Fine-Tuning-Tables-50-50-2022-1.pdf See Sound Investing Tables: https://paulmerriman.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Sound-Investing-Portfolios.pdf See Best-In-Class ETF Recommendations: https://paulmerriman.com/best-in-class-etf-recommendations/ Read article: "The Worst 6 Months Ever For Financial Markets" by Ben Carlson: https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2022/07/the-worst-6-months-ever-for-financial-markets/ | |||
| Should I include cryptocurrency in my portfolio? And other questions. | 29 Jun 2022 | 01:12:27 | |
Paul begins this Q&A session with the true story of helping a young relative open an investment account. The good news is a young investor got started but, with the misguided “help" of a Fidelity rep, he made a $250,000 mistake. Learn what happened. Questions:
Paul mentions the list of Washington State hourly advisors-
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| What path are your investments on? | 22 Jun 2022 | 00:29:05 | |
Many investors are worried about their future and what’s happening in the markets. In this podcast, Paul focuses on a series of new tables. He believes these tables represent one of the best pieces of historical information for understanding the likely path that your investments will take in the future. They were created by Daryl Bahls, Director of Analytics for The Merriman Financial Education Foundation. See the Tables here: https://paulmerriman.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Sound-Investing-Portfolio-Quilt-Chart-1928-2021-V1.3-1.pdf They provide the picture of five different portfolios over their history from 1928 to 2021: 1. All S&P 500; 2. All Small Cap Value (USSV); 3. All Value (USAV) half Large Cap Value and half Small Cap Value; 4. 4-Fund (US4F) with 25% of each of four major asset classes; 5. 2-Fund strategy (US2F) with half USSV and half S&P 500. | |||
| #1 Teaching Tool for DIY Investors | 10 Jul 2024 | 00:42:49 | |
Paul starts the podcast discussing the upcoming (July 13, 2024) presentation for AAII Puget Sound Chapter (9-10:30). Chris Pedersen and Paul will present, “2 Investment Decisions Guaranteed to Change Your Financial Future. ”Here is a link for more information and to sign up for this presentation. Here is the link to sign up. | |||
| What should you do next? | 15 Jun 2022 | 00:31:59 | |
To help answer the many recent emails asking, “What should I do next?” Paul offers his “sound investing" ideas. He begins with a reference to a a recording by JL Collins in 2019, titled "A Guided Meditation for When the Stock Market Is Dropping," (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OOGU94eL07E), and then walks you through the importance of examining and understanding the historical tables provided at his Foundation’s website (https://paulmerriman.com). He also shares information that relates to JL Collins' view of the future and how his view differs, as is meaningfully illustrated in the accumulation tables for the same portfolios. See link to the Fine Tuning Your Asset Allocation table for the S&P 500: https://paulmerriman.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Fine-Tuning-Tables-50-50-2022-1.pdf and https://paulmerriman.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/12-Fine-Tuning-Tables-70-30-2022.pdf See link to U.S. 4-Fund table: https://paulmerriman.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/2-4-Fund-Equity-Returns-1928-2021-C.pdf Get your free copy of We’re Talking Millions at: https://paulmerriman.com/signup | |||
| The Future of Investing: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly | 01 Jun 2022 | 01:18:39 | |
In this new presentation, Paul addresses seven of the biggest investment decisions, provides a brief history of investing and makes predictions for the future. Through the evolution of Wall Street, he shows what savvy investors believe today in terms of saving on fees, diversification and asset class investments, and he elaborates on recommended portfolios and how “5 years can make you a multi-millionaire!” This was presented to Bainbridge Island’s Oatmeal Club, of which Paul is a member. The Oatmeal Club is a group that’s been meeting weekly on Bainbridge Island for 40 years to share “stimulating conversation, intellectual presentations and, before Zoom, a real oatmeal breakfast.” You can read more about The Oatmeal Club here: https://theislandwanderer.com/bainbridges-oatmeal-club-is-the-home-of-stimulating-conversation-intellectual-presentations-and-before-zoom-real-oatmeal/ Watch the accompanying slideshow on the video. | |||
| 5 years of investing and you can become a multi-millionaire | 25 May 2022 | 00:58:22 | |
Young investors can build a retirement worth up to $50 million from an investment of just $6,000 per year for the first 5 years of contributions to a Roth IRA or Roth 401(k). Paul Merriman, Chris Pedersen and Daryl Bahls show you how — with or without the help of parents or grandparents. Paul discusses a strategy for young children that requires monthly contributions of just $25 to fund the $6,000 investment in early-Roth IRA or Roth 401(k), and each shares his recommendation for young investors after the first 5 years. They address the challenge of getting a young investor to “stay the course” when the market is in decline, and Paul shares the story of an uncle who requires three promises from family members he helps get started in investing for retirement. Referenced Links: “5 Years Can Make You a Multi-Millionaire” shows the impact of an all-equity portfolio using Small Cap Value or a 50/50 balance of Small Cap Value and the S&P 500. This new table shows the percentage of time that Small Cap Value makes long term returns of 12% to more than 14%. See video, “How To Use Portfolio Visualizer” by Chris Pedersen | |||
| What’s New for Social Security 2022 | 18 May 2022 | 01:20:41 | |
This is MUST LISTEN presentation for everyone yet to claim Social Security and/or survivor benefits, and otherwise learn how to maximize your benefits. MaryBeth Franklin, author of Maximizing Social Security Retirement Benefits, shares her expertise in this interview with Paul Merriman and answers a number of viewer questions. This presentation is part of Financial Literacy Month, sponsored by the Bainbridge Community Foundation (https://bainbridgecf.org/) and The Merriman Financial Education Foundation (https://paulmerriman.com/the-merriman-financial-education-foundation/) You’ll learn: Links mentioned in the presentation: Mary Beth interview with Joe Elsasser, founder of Covisum, discussing Social Security’s solvency, possible reforms, taxes and benefit strategies. Covisum has a free calculator to help people make better decisions on when to start taking Social Security. https://www.investmentnews.com/podcasts/retirement_repair_shop_mbf/joe_elsasser | |||
| Do-it-yourself investor: be the best! | 11 May 2022 | 00:30:39 | |
Times are changing and many investors are asking, “What changes should I make in my portfolio?” To answer, Paul discusses how to be a successful do-it yourself-investor. He also mentions free upcoming presentations, along with recommended recent articles and an interview on defining characteristics of a successful do-it-yourself investor. Join Paul online with the AAII New York Chapter on May 11 at 6:30 p.m. ET for “The Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio, on Steroids!” Webinar is free. Preregistration is required. Register here: https://bit.ly/3FuhEp9 Attend the Retiremeet conference on May 14, 8:00 a.m.–3:00 p.m. PT Free for online attendees and small fee to attend (includes lunch). Paul speaks about investing in small-cap value for 30 minutes starting at 1:00 p.m. Get all the details and get your tickets at: https://retiremeet.com/ Read this new MarketWatch article: “The Only Two Stock Funds You’ll Ever Need” (https://paulmerriman.com/the-only-two-stock-funds-youll-ever-need/). The article includes a link to an updated table showing 12 combinations of the S&P 500 and small-cap value from 1970-2021. “The Eleventh Commandment,” by George Sisti, offers a humorous and truthful approach to your investment decisions, especially during turbulent times. (https://oncoursefp.com/images/Vectors%20May%2022%20final.pdf) | |||
| Simple & Effective Balanced Lifetime Portfolios, 2022 Update | 04 May 2022 | 00:50:26 | |
Looking to achieve massive diversification across industries, geographies, stocks, bonds, and various equity premium factors? Chris Pedersen, Director of Research at The Merriman Financial Education Foundation and author of 2 Funds for Life: A quest for simple & effective investing strategies, shows several simple portfolios that do that. He also discusses 2 Funds for Life strategies that augment target-date funds to reduce risk with age, increase expected returns, raise safe withdrawal rates, and achieve higher overall survival rates. Chris’ analysis compares past performance to more complex approaches, and shows that complexity is not a necessity in accumulation or retirement. This broadcast is part of the educational offerings from The Merriman Financial Education Foundation, a registered 501(c)3. If you found value in this video, here are five ways to support our mission of providing financial education to investors at all stages of life: 1) Hit the thumbs up, subscribe, leave a comment or podcast review and share the link with your social media and friends. 2) Sign up for our twice-a-month newsletter at PaulMerriman.com and join 30,000+ savvy investors who value free financial education, PLUS receive a free pdf copy of We’re Talking Millions! 12 Ways to Supercharge Your Retirement. We ask that you share it with family, friends, associates and teachers! 3) Use our M1 Finance affiliate link to set up a brokerage account and use our portfolio suggestions. If you fund your account with a minimum of $1,000, our foundation will receive a one-time affiliate fee — at no cost to you — which helps support our financial education projects. 4) Buy our latest books, We’re Talking Millions! 12 Simple Ways To Supercharge Your Retirement and 2 Funds for Life: A quest for simple & effective investing strategies, the profits from which help support our work. 5) Support our mission by making a tax-deductible donation to the Foundation. Thank you! Podcast keywords: simple portfolios, how to invest for life, Chris Pedersen, best target date funds, life strategies that work, investing for retirement, paul merriman podcast, sound investing | |||
| The Inside Story About ESG investing | 27 Apr 2022 | 01:22:19 | |
Paul Merriman talks with Larry Swedroe and Sam Adams about their new book, Your Essential Guide to Sustainable Investing: How to live your values and achieve your financial goals with ESG, SRI, and Impact Investing https://amzn.to/3KiV1Vh, and they address a broad range of audience questions. Larry is a prolific and respected academic-based writer committed to helping investors find better ways to invest. Co-author Sam, CEO of Vert Asset Management and former DFA advisor, describes himself as both an environmentalist and a capitalist. Topics include:• The history of the Socially Responsible Investing movement • Active or passive management of ESG funds? Paul Merriman talks with Larry Swedroe and Sam Adams about their new book, Your Essential Guide to Sustainable Investing: How to live your values and achieve your financial goals with ESG, SRI, and Impact Investing [insert Amazon affiliate link spelled out], and they address a broad range of audience questions. Larry is a prolific and respected academic-based writer committed to helping investors find better ways to invest. Co-author Sam, CEO of Vert Asset Management and former DFA advisor, describes himself as both an environmentalist and a capitalist. Paul suggests that this book is “a must read” for all trustees and board members of non-profit organizations who want to get into the ESG business. He also plans for his Foundation’s team to develop a list of recommended portfolios for ESG funds for his subscribers at paulmerriman.com. | |||
| How To Have More Than Enough in Retirement | 20 Apr 2022 | 00:58:53 | |
In this insightful interview by Morris Taletovic of Moki Finance, Paul shares, for the first time, stories and lessons from his journey in the financial arena as a former advisor, and as an educator and founder of The Merriman Financial Education Foundation. They discuss Paul’s free books, his mentors, cultivating a long-term-investment mindset, and his advice about small-cap value. Paul elaborates on the difference between having “enough” and having “more than enough” in retirement, and how investors can get to “more than enough.” He explains how to create a legacy for a child with a very small investment. The last 15 minutes is spent fielding great questions from Moki’s subscribers. Here is a link to the video. | |||
| How to build a great long-term portfolio | 13 Apr 2022 | 01:06:04 | |
How can you best combine equity asset classes to build portfolios for the long term? This is one of the seven most important topics we focus on at The Merriman Financial Education Foundation. Paul Merriman is joined by Daryl Bahls, Director of Analytics and Chris Pedersen, Director of Research to discuss their personal favorite portfolio, and suggested exposure to fixed income, for three different groups of investors — first time, pre-retirees and retirees. Chris also brings us up to date on changes in the Best-in-Class ETF recommendations. (https://paulmerriman.com/best-in-class-etf-recommendations) Resource: See the Fine Tuning Tables, built to show 8 different combinations plus the S&P 500 as the benchmark: https://paulmerriman.com/fine-tuning-your-asset-allocation/ This podcast is part of the educational offerings from The Merriman Financial Education Foundation, a registered 501(c)3. If you found value in this broadcast, here are five ways to support the mission of our foundation: 1) For videos: Hit the thumbs up, subscribe, leave a comment, and share the link with your social media and friends. For podcasts: Leave a review on your player of choice. 2) Sign up for our twice-a-month newsletter at PaulMerriman.com and join 30,000+ savvy investors who value free financial education, and receive a free pdf copy of We’re Talking Millions! 12 Ways to Supercharge Your Retirement. We ask that you share it with family and friends! 3) Use our M1 Finance affiliate link to set up a brokerage account and use our portfolio suggestions. If you fund your account with a minimum of $1,000, our foundation will receive a one-time affiliate fee — at no cost to you — which helps support our financial education projects. 4) Buy our latest books, We’re Talking Millions! 12 Simple Ways To Supercharge Your Retirement and 2 Funds for Life: A quest for simple & effective investing strategies, the profits from which help support our work. 5) Make a tax-deductible donation to the Foundation to support our mission of providing financial education to investors at all stages of life. Thank you! | |||
| How long can the unexpected continue? | 06 Apr 2022 | 00:34:03 | |
Paul begins this podcast by reviewing long-term returns of the 4 major equity asset classes for the 94 years ending 2021, before moving on to the focus of the podcast: our quilt charts. The most useful single table, of all the tables created by Daryl Bahls, Director of Analytics for The Merriman Financial Education Foundation, is entitled, “U.S. 4 Asset Classes and 4-Fund Combo Relative Performance Rankings (1928-2019). The table offers many important lessons to give investors an improved set of return expectations. The brightly colored years, including each year’s return, make it easy to see the highly random sequence of returns. It becomes very obvious how long the unexpected can continue. And, most importantly, it shows the dependability of the 4-Fund Combo. Since the S&P is considered the benchmark for investors, it is helpful to compare results over longer periods of time. Those results are shown on the table entitled, “Annualized Asset Class Nominal Returns by Decade: 1930-2019.” While past returns are no guarantee of future returns, the case for higher rates of return with similar-to-lower-risk is a high probability. | |||
| Leaving Money to Your Children and Grandchildren | 03 Jul 2024 | 00:28:55 | |
Join Paul as he is interviewed by Ed Fulbright, CPA and host of Mastering Your Money on WNCU 90.7 FM in Durham, N.C.
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| How to strategically invest for your financially secure retirement | 30 Mar 2022 | 01:01:17 | |
What are the best practices for building retirement savings and ensuring those savings last throughout retirement? Christine Benz, director of personal finance at Morningstar, Roger Young, CFP with T. Rowe Price, and Paul Merriman, president of The Merriman Financial Education Foundation, introduce you to the latest research and strategies to increase your odds of enjoying a financially secure retirement. Enjoy this panel discussion from the AAII Conference 360 in October 2021, moderated by Charles Rotblut, vice president and financial analyst at AAII. Roger Young: https://www.troweprice.com/personal-investing/resources/insights/building-confidence-toward-your-retirement.html Paul Merriman, The Merriman Financial Education Foundation: https://paulmerriman.com/ This broadcast is part of the educational offerings from The Merriman Financial Education Foundation, a registered 501(c)3. If you found value in this information, here are five ways to support the our foundation: 1) Hit the thumbs up, subscribe, leave a comment, and share the link with your social media and friends. 2) Sign up for our twice-a-month newsletter at PaulMerriman.com and receive a free pdf copy of We’re Talking Millions! 12 Ways to Supercharge Your Retirement. We ask that you share it with family, friends, associates and teachers! 3) Use our M1 Finance affiliate link to set up a brokerage account and use our portfolio suggestions. If you fund your account with a minimum of $1,000, our foundation will receive a one-time affiliate fee — at no cost to you — which helps support our financial education projects. 4) Buy our latest books, We’re Talking Millions! 12 Simple Ways To Supercharge Your Retirement and 2 Funds for Life: A quest for simple & effective investing strategies, the profits from which help support our work. 5) Make a tax-deductible donation to support our Foundation’s mission of providing financial education to investors at all stages of life. Thank you! | |||
| Flexible distributions: a great luxury in retirement | 23 Mar 2022 | 00:54:14 | |
Flexible Distributions in retirement — which Paul considers one of the greatest financial luxuries for a retiree — are discussed in this podcast updated for 2022. He helps investors see the relationship between how much is taken out for distributions, the balance of equity and fixed income asset classes, and whether distributions are adjusted for inflation or driven solely on percentage of assets in the account. He also highlights the extra protection of broader diversification of stocks and asset classes. Paul references Fine Tuning Tables (B1, B7, B8 and B9), as well as many of the tables from the series of Flexible Distribution Tables (E1.3-E1.6, E7.3-E7.6, E8.3-E8.6, and E9.3-E9.6). Pau’s previous podcast examined Fixed Distributions, a strategy designed for investors who retire with “enough.” This podcast is part of the educational offerings from The Merriman Financial Education Foundation, a registered 501(c)3. If you found value in this podcast, here are five ways to support the podcast and our foundation: 1) Leave a podcast review on your player of choice. 2) Sign up for our twice-a-month newsletter at PaulMerriman.com and join 30,000+ savvy investors who value free financial education, and receive a free pdf copy of We’re Talking Millions! 12 Ways to Supercharge Your Retirement. We ask that you share it with family and friends! 3) Use our M1 Finance affiliate link to set up a brokerage account and use our portfolio suggestions. If you fund your account with a minimum of $1,000, our foundation will receive a one-time affiliate fee — at no cost to you — which helps support our financial education projects. 4) Buy our latest books, We’re Talking Millions! 12 Simple Ways To Supercharge Your Retirement and 2 Funds for Life: A quest for simple & effective investing strategies, the profits from which help support our work. 5) Consider making a tax-deductible donation to the Foundation to support our mission to provide financial education to investors at all stages of life. Thank you! | |||
| Fixed Distributions 2022 Update | 16 Mar 2022 | 00:40:15 | |
How much should you take out of your portfolio in retirement? This is one of the biggest financial decisions you will make. In this presentation, Paul discusses the use of the Fixed Distribution Tables, updated for 2021 data. He uses Fine Tuning Tables B1 (S&P 500) and B9 (U.S. 4 Fund Portfolio) as the return series he will use for the discussion. He looks at 4 tables in each series. The tables reflect the outcome of taking a 3, 4, 5 and 6 percent original distribution, with annual inflation adjustments. The comparisons are based on the use of 40/60, 50/50 and 60/40 equity/fixed income portfolios. Paul focuses on the 20, 30 and 52 year periods of returns. This podcast is part of the educational offerings from The Merriman Financial Education Foundation, a registered 501(c)3. If you found value in this podcast, here are five ways to support the podcast and our foundation: 1) Leave a podcast review on your player of choice. 2) Sign up for our twice-a-month newsletter at PaulMerriman.com and join 30,000+ savvy investors who value free financial education, and receive a free pdf copy of We’re Talking Millions! 12 Ways to Supercharge Your Retirement. We ask that you share it with family and friends! 3) Use our M1 Finance affiliate link to set up a brokerage account and use our portfolio suggestions. If you fund your account with a minimum of $1,000, our foundation will receive a one-time affiliate fee — at no cost to you — which helps support our financial education projects. 4) Buy our latest books, We’re Talking Millions! 12 Simple Ways To Supercharge Your Retirement and 2 Funds for Life: A quest for simple & effective investing strategies, the profits from which help support our work. 5) Consider making a tax-deductible donation to the Foundation to support our mission to provide financial education to investors at all stages of life. Thank you! | |||
| How can I test results if I want to make changes to my portfolios? And other great questions | 09 Mar 2022 | 00:59:14 | |
Paul discusses the latest Equity and Fixed Income Tables (1928-2021). Also, see updates of The Ultimate Buy & Hold Fine Tuning Your Asset Allocation, Fixed Contributions and No-Nonsense Tables. Plus, he answers the following questions:
Paul ends with a wonderful comment from a young investor about dealing with the temptation to check his results daily. | |||
| You can retire with millions more (and it takes less than $100 a month) | 02 Mar 2022 | 00:35:01 | |
In this podcast, you’ll learn about the long-term impact of using regular Fixed Contributions and our updated Tables for 2022. For young investors, this can mean adding millions to your retirement. Before listening to this podcast, Paul suggests you review the YouTube 2022 updates on The Ultimate Buy and Hold, Fine Tuning Your Asset Allocation, and No-Nonsense Portfolios. There are 9 Tables that investors can use to compare the long-term results of using each of these different equity combinations, with the addition of bonds for more conservative investors. The purpose of the tables and this podcast is to help young investors understand the long-term impact of a small monthly investment along with 3% annual increases. The corresponding Fine Tuning Tables are used for return calculations. Paul compares the decade returns of the S&P 500 only with a 50/50 split between the S&P 500 and small-cap value. Doubling in value: Paul highlights the extra risk of having all the money in one asset class. In the 10 years ending 2009, the S&P 500 declines in value, even including additional investments. Meanwhile, the more diversified 50/50 S&P/SCV doubled in value for the same period. In fact, almost every other portfolio doubled over that 10 year period. The sequence of return can mean a $1.5 million difference. Paul shows another situation (Tables C8 and C9) where two portfolios had almost the same compound rate of return, but one beats the other by about $1.5 million. It points to how important the sequence of return is. Use The Merriman Lifetime Investment Calculator to test different beginning dates to see the impact of different sequences of return. Interestingly, the annual result of regularly adding new money seldom leaves the portfolio with less value than the previous year. For example, in the case of the S&P 500, there were only 7 years out of 52 that the following year wasn’t higher than the last. In the case of the 50/50 S&P/SCV, there were only 5 years that the following year wasn’t higher. Hopefully, this knowledge will help you consider building different portfolio combinations with unique parts of your long-term investments. For example, you could segregate one smaller account that is all small-cap value for the entire period, another in the U.S. 4 Fund Portfolio, and yet another in a Worldwide 4 Fund Portfolio. | |||
| Comparing the risk and return of 20 different (mostly) popular portfolios for do it yourself investors | 23 Feb 2022 | 01:16:53 | |
In this podcast and video, Paul Merriman, Chris Pedersen and Daryl Bahls discuss the 2022 update of "No-Nonsense Portfolios" Tables along with new tables used in a recent presentation at the 2022 White Coat Investor Conference. That presentation was entitled “The Inside Story of 150 Portfolios Better Than Yours.” The two tables compare the risk and return of 20 different portfolios. Those listening to the podcast should review the tables before listening. Lessons learned: · There are many ways to measure risk · Higher returns can be achieved at less risk · The risk of having too much of a portfolio in one asset class · The importance of combining small and value with traditional large-cap blend portfolio · Rebalancing of an equity portfolio can increase the long-term return · A portfolio can never score well during the decade periods but end up #1 for the whole period · The portfolio that grew to $9.5 million was less risky than the one that grew to $1.9 million After the discussion of the tables, Chris, Daryl and Paul talk about the portfolios they would recommend. | |||
| Fine Tuning Your Asset Allocation: 2022 Update | 16 Feb 2022 | 00:47:03 | |
The idea began more than 25 years ago: Use tables to show the risk and reward of different equity asset classes — along with different combinations of equity and fixed income — so that investors gain a firm understanding of the relationship between long-term return and short-term risk, and make their investment decisions accordingly. At that time, there were two tables — one for the S&P 500 (as the equity position) and a second for the Ultimate Buy and Hold combination of 10 different equity asset classes. Since then, we have added more combinations of these asset classes equity combinations. We call these the Fine Tuning Tables. In this podcast Paul discusses and reviews 9 different combinations of equity asset classes from the stand-alone S&P 500 to the 10-fund Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio. To get the most out of this podcast, Paul suggests you revisit the previous one, (Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategies: 2022 Update) and this table (Table A1). He begins with a quick review of the previous podcast and then looks at the 9 different equity asset classes that are the basis of the 9 Fine Tuning Tables. (Table A2: Alternative Equity Portfolio Table). Then he reviews Table B1 for the S&P 500 and bond combinations. The goal is to alert users to the many risk and return lessons on this table. Following this table, he reviews the Tables B7 through B14 that represent the different portfolio combinations that can be built with the 10 funds in the Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio. Those include: Ultimate Buy and Hold Worldwide 4 Fund U.S. 4 Fund Worldwide All Value U.S. All Value Worldwide All Small Cap Value All U.S. Small Cap Value S&P and Small Cap Value (50/50) Next week’s podcast will be a discussion about the 9 different equity asset class combinations. Paul will be joined by Chris Pedersen and Daryl Bahls to help Sound Investing investors select from the variety of strategies. | |||
| Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategies: Update 2022 | 09 Feb 2022 | 00:41:00 | |
Since 1995 Paul has been writing and teaching Do-It-Yourself investors about the Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio. In this 2022 update he uses the UBH table (70-30) and UBH tables (50-50) to make the case for 10 equity asset classes he thinks investors should consider owning in the equity portion of their long-term investments. The key takeaways:
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| How to Be The Perfect Investor | 02 Feb 2022 | 00:29:07 | |
What are the most important attitudes and habits of successful investors? In this podcast, Paul examines this question through the lens of “hard work,” or what is often called “grit.” He references a special 6-minute TED talk by Angela Lee Duckworth, a psychology professor at the University of Pennsylvania. The video is about the importance of “grit” in your life. While the hard work and the passion of grit may make people more successful in their daily life, Paul makes the case that it may lead to worse outcomes as an investor. In fact, the grit for an investor is to remain still and let your investments take care of themselves. Since the grit is largely a matter of habits and attitude, Paul reads chapter 11 from Financial Fitness Forever. He discusses the importance of trust, resilience, perspective, patience and common sense, plus six productive habits that seem to favor investors over the long term. He also suggests you watch his the video or audio, “Habits and Attitudes of Successful Investors,” from the 2016 Vestory Retiremeet Conference. | |||
| Is the market going to crash? | 26 Jan 2022 | 01:03:07 | |
Paul shares the dire predictions from several gurus and includes a list of reasons a sharp decline could happen. He includes history of corrections and bear markets since 1950. https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/02/a-short-history-of-u-s-stock-market-corrections-bear-markets/ Question: Is the 60/40 portolio “in danger?” Paul uses 'Fine Tuning Table 3' to show investors how to figure out the risk of Vanguard Wellington and Vanguard Wellesley Funds, as well as other similarly built funds. https://paulmerriman.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Fine-Tuning-Tables-50-50-2020.pdf Paul is outraged by what he learned from a recent report by "The Motley Fool" on what Gen Z, Millenials and all investors 18 to 40 years old have made. https://www.ngpf.org/blog/question-of-the-day/question-of-the-day-what-percent-of-18-24-year-olds-own-individual-stocks/ The Motley Fool newsletter is advertising very high returns. Are they real? The best source of real newsletter returns is hulbertratings.com. Paul references the 20 year results: hulbertratings.com/20-yearscoreboard/. Question: They say small-cap growth is the black hole of investing: high volatility, low reward. Should we keep small-cap blend if the growth companies will continue to pull returns down? Question: What do I have in my portfolio to protect against a market crash? | |||
| AAII Q&A and New Graphs | 26 Jun 2024 | 00:40:17 | |
The following questions were generated during a presentation Paul made to the Orange County and New York City AAII Chapters. 1. How do we go about finding someone (money manager) who follows your portfolio recommendations? Plus what is a reasonable fee to pay for advisory services? In the answer I do mention David Sterman. link:https://huguenotfinancialplanning.com/and two videos by Rob Berger: 5 Hidden Costs of Fee-Only Advisors and 5 Key Questions to Ask Your Investment Advisor 2. How can I decide whether to go from 50/50 stocks and bonds to 70/30? I suggest looking at table B1 and B9. 3. What bond durations do you recommend? 4. What are the ETFs that you recommend for each of the equity asset classes you list? 5. Can I share your presentation with my children? Here is a presentation that might be good for a young person. 6. How do I find a good money manager and what questions should I ask? Here is a link to our free book, “Get Smart or Get Screwed: How to Select the Best and Get the Most Out of Your Financial Advisor.” 7. How do I get access to all of your charts and tables? Here is the link to Boot Camp where you can have access to all the tables. 8. What is your view of small cap value returns over the coming decades? In my answer I mention Ben Carlson’s article on randomness of historical returns- When is the Mean Reversion Coming in the Stock Market? and his article Long-Term Recency Bias. And here is the new graph that Daryl Bahls proceeded to see the returns of a couple of portfolios over the same periods as Ben addressed. | |||
| Your questions answered, our plans revealed | 19 Jan 2022 | 00:53:33 | |
This podcast (also a video) answers questions from our listeners, viewers and newsletter subscribers, and updates you on our upcoming projects. Paul Merriman, founder and president of The Merriman Financial Education, is joined by Chris Pedersen, Director of Research and author of 2 Funds for Life — A quest for simple & effective investing strategies, and Daryl Bahls, Director of Analytics. Topics:
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| 2021 investment results you should know | 12 Jan 2022 | 00:43:23 | |
In this review of 2021 investment results, Paul shares 10 lessons he thinks will be of interest to you following our advice. 1. How many up and down days did the market produce and how that compares to longer-term profitable vs. losing periods? 2. The market reached 70 new highs during the year. Is that good news or bad? 3. The biggest drawdown for the year was 5.1%. How does that compare to past years? 4. Commodities, oil and Bitcoin were among the big winners in 2021. But why do the reported returns of the S&P and other equity asset classes understate their actual returns? 5. Paul focuses on a short report from Dimensional Funds: When It’s Value vs. Growth, History is on Value’s Side https://www.dimensional.com/us-en/insights/when-its-value-versus-growth-history-is-on-values-side. This study highlights the high volatility in the difference between these two asset classes. Bottom line average advantage to value is more than 5%. 6. Sometimes investing results can be hard to explain. Paul reviews the 2021 small and large value and growth returns in U.S., international and emerging markets. Investors may be surprised to see the huge differences from what might be considered similar asset classes. 7. In our Best In Class ETF recommendations our Director of Research, Chris Pedersen, works hard to identify the ETFs that should be among the best. Paul reviews the results of his recommendations compared to the returns of the average ETF in each equity asset class. 8. Many investors struggle to make the decision Best In Class ETFs or all Vanguard all the time. Paul compares the returns of the BIC ETFs portfolios (U.S. 4 Fund, Worldwide 4 Fund and Worldwide All Value and more) to similar portfolios with Vanguard ETFs. Paul also compares BIC with similar DFA portfolios. Investors have to decide whether those differences will be similar in the future or 2021 was an aberration. 9. Many investors have chosen the Total Stock Market over the S&P 500. Paul discusses the reasons their historic returns are almost the same and why the S&P 500 way outperformed the TMI in 2021. 10. While equity is considered the gas for growth in a portfolio, bonds are considered the brakes. Paul explains why he doesn’t recommend international bonds to stabilize a portfolio and why international bonds lost more money than U.S. bonds in 2021. | |||
| How to teach a teenager to invest | 04 Jan 2022 | 00:53:25 | |
If you know anyone in their teens, you can make a significant difference in his or her life. We know that the earlier a person gets started saving and soundly investing, the more they will have for retirement and to leave to others. As a group, teenagers are at a phase where they are seeking independence, moving from childhood to adulthood, and are eager to exercise their freedom, which comes with increasing self-responsibility. Therefore, the best way to teach them about investing is to involve them in selecting and opening a long-term investment account. In this video/podcast discussion Paul suggests the young investor find a partner (parent, grandparent, uncle, aunt, godparent, etc.) to match $50 a year for 10 years. (This could be done with $10) and what that will mean to them over the years. This presentation includes a set of 24 tables that can be used to investigate many of the choices the investor has (see pdf below). Watch this as a video. For information on Custodial Roth IRAs include a link to Schwab Custodial IRA https://www.schwab.com/ira/custodial-ira?src=SEM&ef_id=CjwKCAiA8bqOBhANEiwA-sIlN2MT3u5rQ88ibNnybVheXC-EFqyvlmYK1VsOqo8E_ofYodnmseoaYBoCBDEQAvD_BwE:G:s&s_kwcid=AL!5158!3!495093339246!p!!g!!custodial%20ira%20charles%20schwab!651813075!33944985558&keywordid=kwd-194438821700&gclid=CjwKCAiA8bqOBhANEiwA-sIlN2MT3u5rQ88ibNnybVheXC-EFqyvlmYK1VsOqo8E_ofYodnmseoaYBoCBDEQAvD_BwE and Fidelity Custodial IRA https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/personal-finance/retirement/turbocharge-childs-retirement https://paulmerriman.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/100-per-year.pdf | |||