Warren Sharp is joined by his NFL & College Football Analysts to pore through the data and bring you the smartest people in the sport to find edges to exploit and advantages to make better bets and win fantasy football leagues & contests! Featuring insights, projections and commentary from Warren Sharp, Rich Hribar, Ray Summerlin, Ryan McCrystal and the Sharp Football team!
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NFL Week 4 Takeaways and Monday Night Football Best Bets
Épisode 514
lundi 5 octobre 2026 • Durée 38:51
NFL Week 4 takeaways from the numbers. The most penalties in any NFL week since 2015 and record offensive flags in the red zone, the Texans blew a 10 point lead because they cannot run, the Eagles went three and out five times in the second half, the Rams won while playing left handed, and the Bengals offense fell apart without Ja'Marr Chase. Plus a best bet for tonight's Monday Night Football with Curtis.
WHAT YOU'LL LEARN
17 penalties per game in Week 4, the most in any week since 2015 and the most after September since 2005
Offenses flagged 6.18 times per 100 snaps, the most through four weeks since 2000, with record red zone penalties
How Houston built a 16-6 lead from under center, then went 72% shotgun and ran six times in the second half
Dallas in the second half: 56% success, +0.50 EPA per play, a first down on 41% of snaps, all number one
Jalen Hurts on third down: 8.4 yards to go, 90% of throws short of the sticks, one completion
Rams by personnel: -0.14 EPA per play in 11, +0.87 in 12, +0.98 in 13, and the second half run game that won it
The Bengals with and without Chase: +0.40 to +0.04 EPA per attempt, 89% to 69% completions
Bo Nix: 24 first half attempts at 3.9 yards each, 41% of throws at or behind the line
The new free stats page and the Pass Rate Over Expected tool
Monday Night Football: Falcons at Saints, with Curtis on the matchup he likes
CHAPTERS 00:00 Intro 00:32 The refs: 17 penalties per game and record offensive flags 08:27 Subscribe 09:04 Texans can't run and it cost them 12:32 The Cowboys second half offense 15:00 Strength of schedule: Texans and Jaguars 15:53 Eagles offense still broken 18:14 Rams played left handed and won 20:32 Ja'Marr Chase injury was massive for Cincy 23:57 What is the Broncos offense doing? 28:57 Monday Night Football: Falcons at Saints, with Curtis 31:48 The new free stats page and Pass Rate Over Expected tool 38:23 Wrap-up
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(39-13, 75%) NFL Week 4 Best Bets & Player Props 2026
Épisode 513
vendredi 2 octobre 2026 • Durée 52:59
NFL Week 4 best bets, player props and referee picks, plus three of the biggest college football games of the weekend. Warren Sharp opens with three matchups that decide how you bet the weekend, then Ryan McCrystal on the Saturday college slate, Rich Hribar with three favorite props including the first London game of the year, Joe Gibbs on the Week 4 referee crews, and the best bet of the week to close.
Covered in this episode: Brian Flores, Kirk Cousins, Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, Daniel Jones, Brad Allen, Craig Wrolstad, Land Clark.
WHAT YOU'LL LEARN • Why the number one blitz rate in the NFL on early downs is a problem for a quarterback who has not faced an above average blitz yet • The play action split that makes one offense look like two different teams, and the defense that is elite without it and bottom five against it • Why a pass rush that gets home on 59% of third downs only gets there on 25% of early downs, and what that means for a quarterback who is barely pressured • Three college games where a coordinator change, a missed tackle rate and a quarterback holding the ball decide the number • How three referee crews are calling penalties this season and which teams it helps
CHAPTERS 00:00 What is on the show this week 01:39 Why this show is more than the bets 02:52 Brian Flores gets the team that fired him 05:36 The play action lever Las Vegas is not pulling 11:04 Trevor versus time 14:20 Ryan McCrystal on three college games 23:14 50% off with code SHOW50 24:20 Rich Hribar's three props 34:01 Joe Gibbs on the Week 4 referees 42:50 OddsJam 43:19 Best bet of the week 52:14 Back on Monday
NFL Week 4 Matchups: What You Need to Know Before Kickoff
Épisode 512
jeudi 1 octobre 2026 • Durée 42:47
Warren Sharp and Rich Hribar break down the four matchups that decide Week 4, plus two under-the-radar games nobody is talking about.
WHAT YOU'LL LEARN
Why the Eagles pass defense ranking is a mirage, and the three quarterbacks it was built on
The coverage Vic Fangio has quietly taken away from Matthew Stafford in every meeting
Where Sean McVay gets Kyren Williams the box count he never sees anywhere else
The one formation split that explains the entire Joe Burrow vs Jacksonville matchup
What happens to the Jaguars pass defense when the pass rush does not get home
The Buffalo coverage call that broke Drake Maye last season, and whether a new coordinator goes back to it
What Drake Maye actually does well, and the exact moment in a dropback when it falls apart
The change D'Amico Ryans has made in Houston, and why Dallas is built to attack it
What Nico Collins is worth to C.J. Stroud
The play action split that should decide Chiefs at Raiders
Why the Chargers offensive line is walking into the worst possible building
50% off monthly and full season packages with code SHOW50 at sharp.football
CHAPTERS 00:00 Cold open 00:30 Welcome, and the week ahead 00:59 MATCHUP 1: Rams offense vs the Eagles defense 10:27 The schedule Jalen Hurts has actually faced 13:53 Subscribe 14:32 MATCHUP 2: Joe Burrow vs the Jaguars defense 19:40 The pass protections Jacksonville has faced 22:09 50% off monthly and full season packages, code SHOW50 23:37 MATCHUP 3: Drake Maye vs the Bills pass defense 25:06 The Cover 6 blueprint 30:25 The Worksheet 31:00 MATCHUP 4: the Texans defense vs Dak Prescott 35:43 What Nico Collins is worth to C.J. Stroud 37:46 SNEAKY: Raiders play action vs the Chiefs 40:13 SNEAKY: Seahawks pass rush vs Justin Herbert 42:36 Wrap
Rich writes a full Worksheet preview for every game, every week at
NFL Week 3 Takeaways and Monday Night Football Best Bets
Épisode 511
lundi 28 septembre 2026 • Durée 35:03
NFL Week 3 takeaways from the numbers. Dallas mismanaged the clock at the Baltimore 7, the Chargers got 5 Buffalo turnovers and did not even cover, and halftime adjustments decided several games. Plus a few best bets for Monday Night Football, Eagles at Bears, with Curtis.
What You'll Learn
• Why the Cowboys' timeout with 15 seconds left, the throwaway and the touchback handed Baltimore a chance • Derrick Henry's short yardage numbers: 53% first down rate on 75 runs, ranked 70th of 73 backs • How teams plus 4 in turnovers with 3 or fewer punts were 151-3 straight up since 1990, and the Chargers still lost • The four Chargers drives inside the Bills 30 that produced three field goals, a miss and an interception • Mike McCarthy's halftime change: shotgun from 73% to 52%, third downs from 7.2 to 4.3 yards to go • Why Cincinnati saw the lightest boxes of the week and still ran only 16 times • Jacksonville's run game against the Patriots, and why New England's early down runs against light boxes had a 0% success rate • Drake Maye holding the ball 3.3 seconds and the lowest third down passer rating of the week • How Seattle threw for 393 yards, outgained Washington 6.8 to 4.0 yards per play, and lost • Marcus Mariota pressured on 54% of dropbacks with 0 interceptions and 3 touchdowns • Bryce Young against man coverage versus zone • Monday Night Football: Eagles at Bears, with Curtis on the angles he is watching
Chapters
00:00 Intro 00:44 The Cowboys botched the end of the game in Baltimore 03:53 Derrick Henry in short yardage 07:06 How did the Chargers not even cover? 12:25 Subscribe and the Best Bet record 13:17 Steelers offensive tweaks at halftime 13:39 Cincinnati saw light boxes and still rarely ran 15:56 What happened to the Patriots offense? 20:25 The Commanders unlikely win over Seattle 23:37 Bryce Young was fine against man coverage 25:08 Monday Night Football: Eagles at Bears, with Curtis33:59 Subscribe to the free newsletter34:39 Wrap-up
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(38-13, 75% Lifetime) NFL Week 3 Best Bets & Player Props 2026
Épisode 510
vendredi 25 septembre 2026 • Durée 50:23
NFL Week 3 best bets, player props and referee picks, plus three of the biggest college football games of the weekend. Warren Sharp is 38-13 (75%) lifetime on podcast best bets, and this is the full Week 3 card: his best bet of the week plus a second bet, three props from Rich Hribar, Ryan McCrystal on three Saturday games and Joe Gibbs on the Week 3 referees.
It starts with four NFL matchups. The Chargers defense, stout against the run and falling apart against the pass, going to Buffalo to face Josh Allen. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who has every Seattle touchdown this season, against a Washington defense that blitzes. The Cleveland Browns, who have played the two toughest run defenses in the league and now get one of the softest. And Drake Maye going to Jacksonville, into the coverage that keeps finding him.
45% off the season: the computer totals are back, and code SHOW45 takes 45% off any full season betting package. 70% on computer total recommendations historically over the last six seasons, and 739-431 since 2006, a 63% win rate. sharp.football
Games covered: Ole Miss at Florida, USC at Oregon, Texas at Tennessee, Chargers at Bills, Seahawks at Commanders, Browns at Panthers, Patriots at Jaguars, Jets at Lions, Titans at Giants, Chiefs at Dolphins, Texans at Colts, Rams at Broncos on Sunday Night Football and Eagles at Bears on Monday Night Football.
WHAT YOU WILL LEARN
• Why the Chargers are number two in the NFL against early down runs and still in trouble in Buffalo • The play action and two high mismatch that Buffalo does not have to work to create • Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s blitz usage and what Washington’s blitz rate does to it • Why Cleveland’s whole offensive profile has been a strength of schedule story, and what changes this week • The coverage Drake Maye keeps seeing, and who plays it most in the NFL • Ryan McCrystal on three Saturday games, including the one data point he trusts this early in the season • Rich Hribar’s three Week 3 props and the numbers behind each one, including where he ladders • The referee trends behind Joe Gibbs’ three picks, including a crew the Broncos are 1-6 with at home• Warren’s Week 3 best bet, plus one more bet on a second game
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NFL Week 3 Preview: The Matchups That Decide the Big Games
Épisode 509
jeudi 24 septembre 2026 • Durée 38:41
Four matchups decide the biggest games of NFL Week 3: the Bills offense against the Chargers defense, Joe Burrow against the Steelers pass rush, the Ravens offense against the Cowboys defense in Brazil, and the Rams offense against the Broncos defense on Sunday night.
45% off the rest of the season. The computer totals start this week, a 70% win rate over the last six seasons. Use code SHOW45 at sharp.football, which comes out around 50 dollars a week for props, sides, totals, teasers, derivatives and the computer totals.
Players discussed: Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Omarion Hampton, Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, Drake Maye, Aaron Rodgers, Lamar Jackson, Zay Flowers, Ronnie Stanley, Caleb Downs, Malik Hooker, Davante Adams, Puka Nacua, Patrick Surtain II, Terrance Ferguson, Bryce Young, Baker Mayfield.
What you will learn
• Why the Chargers schedule gets far harder starting this week • What Buffalo changed on offense and why the numbers say it is real • How Pittsburgh's pass rush attacks a quick passing game • Why Joe Burrow has barely played the Steelers in three seasons • What the Cowboys injuries in the secondary mean against Lamar Jackson • How the Saints slowed Baltimore in the second half, and whether Dallas can copy it • What the Rams do without Puka Nacua, and why it points at the run game • Two under the radar matchups for Sunday
Chapters
00:00 Welcome to the Matchup Show 00:29 Four matchups this week 01:06 Matchup 1: Bills offense vs Chargers defense 04:09 Josh Allen is pushing it downfield 05:06 The Chargers defense through two weeks 07:45 Are you subscribed? 08:19 Matchup 2: Joe Burrow vs the Steelers defense 10:13 Burrow's quick game vs Pittsburgh's pass rush 13:52 Burrow has barely played the Steelers 14:49 The computer totals are back 16:09 Matchup 3: Ravens offense vs Cowboys defense18:39 Who the Cowboys are missing20:55 Lamar Jackson with a clean pocket23:54 How the Saints slowed Lamar26:07 The Worksheet: every game, every week26:49 Matchup 4: Rams offense vs Broncos defense28:22 Davante Adams without Puka Nacua30:54 The Rams run game vs Denver32:39 Sneaky matchup: Panthers at Browns36:00 Sneaky matchup: Baker Mayfield vs Brian Flores38:16 See you next week
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(37-13, 74% Lifetime) NFL Week 2 Best Bets & Player Props 2026
Épisode 508
jeudi 17 septembre 2026 • Durée 48:14
NFL Week 2 best bets, player props and referee picks, plus the biggest college football game of the weekend. Warren Sharp is 37-13 (74%) lifetime on podcast best bets, and this is the full Week 2 card: his best bet of the week, three props from Rich Hribar, Ryan McCrystal on LSU at Ole Miss and Joe Gibbs on the Week 2 referees.
It starts with three things from Week 1 that change how you bet Week 2. Houston's revamped offense and what it does to opponent play volume against the Bengals. Tampa's blitz rate against a Cleveland offense that cannot get the ball out. And the Eagles, a league low on first down and a win anyway, now on the road in Tennessee.
Two weeks free: code SHOW35 on the NFL Plus monthly package gets you a full month of Warren's NFL recommendations plus Rich Hribar's breakdown of every game for the price of two weeks. https://sharp.football
Games covered: LSU at Ole Miss, Bengals at Texans, Jaguars at Broncos, Saints at Ravens, Browns at Buccaneers and Giants at Rams on Monday Night Football.
WHAT YOU WILL LEARN
How Houston's offense changed its intent in Week 1 and why opponent play volume is the number to watch
Why Tampa's blitz rate against a slow time to throw is the mismatch of the week
Why the Eagles offense is a problem even in a win, and what the first down and play action numbers say
Ryan McCrystal on LSU at Ole Miss, the doubtful quarterback, and why the line has barely moved
Rich Hribar's three Week 2 props and the numbers behind each one, including where he ladders
The referee trends behind Joe Gibbs' three picks, including the best home field referee in the league
Warren's Week 2 best bet and a scheduling angle that has only happened four times since 1990
CHAPTERS
00:00 Warren's best bets record and today's show
01:10 Houston's revamped offense and opponent play volume
04:02 Tampa's pressure against Cleveland
08:31 What is going on with the Eagles offense
11:39 College football with Ryan McCrystal
12:06 LSU at Ole Miss
20:51 Two weeks free with code SHOW35
22:12 Rich Hribar prop 1: Saints at Ravens
25:04 Prop 2: Jaguars at Broncos
30:44 Prop 3: Jaguars at Broncos
32:43 The ref report with Joe Gibbs
33:20 Bengals at Texans
35:21 Jaguars at Broncos
37:05 Giants at Rams, Monday Night Football
39:29 OddsJam, code WARREN
40:10 Warren's best bet of the week
47:59 Wrap-up
NFL Week 2 Preview: The Matchups That Decide the Big Games
Épisode 507
jeudi 17 septembre 2026 • Durée 37:22
Three matchups decide the biggest games of NFL Week 2: the Bears offense against Brian Flores and the Vikings defense, the Steelers offense against the Patriots defense, and Dak Prescott against the Commanders pass defense.
Buy two weeks, get two weeks free. A full month of NFL betting recommendations plus Rich Hribar's breakdown of every game for the price of two weeks. Use code SHOW35 on the NFL Plus Monthly package at sharp.football.
• How Brian Flores has blitzed Caleb Williams in all four meetings • The shotgun vs under center split that could decide Bears at Vikings • What the Vikings offense looks like with Carson Wentz • How much the Steelers offense changed with Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy • Why the Steelers backfield split could tighten toward Jaylen Warren • Why Dak Prescott's Week 1 was not all on Dak, and what he does against the blitz • Two under the radar matchups for Sunday
Chapters
00:00 Welcome to the Matchup Show 00:36 Matchup 1: Bears offense vs Vikings defense 05:08 Shotgun or under center: how the Bears beat Flores 09:25 Three shows every week 10:03 The Vikings offense with Carson Wentz 12:48 Matchup 2: Steelers offense vs Patriots defense 15:09 Aaron Rodgers and the new Steelers offense 17:26 Can Pittsburgh run on New England 19:43 Jaylen Warren vs Rico Dowdle 21:37 Matchup 3: Dak Prescott vs Commanders pass defense 23:32 Dak vs the blitz and Dan Quinn 26:39 The Cowboys defense problem 30:24 The Worksheet: every game, every week 31:05 Sneaky important matchups31:40 Rich's pick: Ravens run game vs the Saints34:14 Warren's pick: Eagles defense vs Titans offense36:52 See you next week
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(36-13, 73% Lifetime) NFL Week 1 Best Bets & Player Props 2026
Épisode 506
vendredi 11 septembre 2026 • Durée 51:58
NFL Week 1 best bets, player props and referee picks, plus two college football sides for Saturday. Warren Sharp is 36-13 (73%) lifetime on podcast best bets, and this is the full Week 1 card: his best bet of the week, three props from Rich Hribar, Ryan McCrystal's college football picks and Joe Gibbs on the Week 1 referees.
Week 1 sale: code SHOW85 takes 85% off any weekly betting package, every Week 1 recommendation plus early Week 2 action for $15. Code SHOW25 takes 25% off a monthly or season-long package. sharp.football
Players and teams discussed: Jayden Daniels, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Rhamondre Stevenson, Arch Manning and Bryce Underwood. Seahawks at Patriots, Ohio State at Texas, Oklahoma at Michigan, Bengals vs Buccaneers, Bears vs Panthers, Saints at Lions, Packers at Vikings, Cowboys at Giants and Broncos at Chiefs.
WHAT YOU WILL LEARN
• Which teams moved to under center the most this preseason, and why it matters for Daniels, Lamar and Burrow • Why Week 1 is the week to be careful with your bankroll, and why Week 2 is overreaction week • How to use alt ladders on player props • Ryan McCrystal's picks for Ohio State at Texas and Oklahoma at Michigan • Rich Hribar's three Week 1 props and the numbers behind each one • The referee trends behind Joe Gibbs' three picks • Warren's Week 1 best bet and the numbers behind it
CHAPTERS
00:00 Warren's best bets record and today's show 01:06 Seahawks over Patriots: the opener 02:33 Quarterbacks going under center more in 2026 09:08 New coaches, new roles, new prices 13:21 How we bet props (and the Stevenson ladder) 17:30 College football picks with Ryan McCrystal 18:16 Ohio State at Texas pick 21:44 Oklahoma at Michigan pick 25:31 85% off the Week 1 betting package 26:58 Rich Hribar prop 1: Bengals vs Bucs 29:35 Prop 2: Bears vs Panthers32:23 Prop 3: Saints at Lions35:38 The ref report with Joe Gibbs36:29 Packers at Vikings38:34 Cowboys at Giants, Sunday Night Football40:55 Broncos at Chiefs, Monday Night Football43:46 Warren's best bet of the week51:34 Wrap-up
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The Matchup Show, Week 1: The Matchups That Decide the Big Games
Épisode 505
jeudi 10 septembre 2026 • Durée 44:35
Three matchups decide the biggest games of NFL Week 1, and this is the film and the numbers on all three: Texans offense against the Bills defense, the Bengals passing game against the Buccaneers front, and Ravens at Colts.
Houston's offense finished 30th in red zone touchdown rate last season and ran the fourth highest rate of three receiver sets down there. Buffalo has a new defensive coordinator and gave up 7.6 yards per carry against two tight end sets. Cincinnati is putting Joe Burrow under center after two years of shotgun at the second highest rate in the NFL, against the defense that blitzes more than anyone. And the Colts offense that ranked number one in the league through 10 weeks meets a Baltimore defense with a new coordinator who plays the lowest rate of man coverage in football.
Plus the Seahawks and Patriots opener, the two injuries that came out of it, and one sneaky important matchup from each of us that nobody is talking about.
85% OFF THE WEEKLY BETTING PACKAGE
We opened the season 3-1, hit both of our top props on Wednesday night, and a $100 bettor won $378 on the first game of the year. Get every Week 1 play plus early Week 2 action for $15. Use code SHOW85 at checkout.
GUESTS Ryan McCrystal, college football betting analyst, Sharp Football Analysis Rich Hribar, Sharp Football Analysis Joe Gibbs, referee analyst, Sharp Football Analysis
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CHAPTERS
00:00 Warren’s best bets record and today’s show 01:33 Chargers at Bills 05:11 Seahawks at Commanders 08:21 Browns at Panthers 13:26 Patriots at Jaguars 16:06 College football with Ryan McCrystal 16:24 Ole Miss at Florida 18:53 USC at Oregon 20:42 Texas at Tennessee 24:46 45% off the season with code SHOW45 25:57 Rich Hribar prop 1: Jets at Lions 29:35 Prop 2: Titans at Giants 33:04 Prop 3: Chiefs at Dolphins 36:38 The ref report with Joe Gibbs 37:10 Texans at Colts 38:51 Rams at Broncos, Sunday Night Football 41:00 Eagles at Bears, Monday Night Football 42:41 OddsJam, code WARREN 43:11 Warren’s best bet of the week 47:43 One more bet 50:04 Wrap-up
PROMO CODES SHOW45: 45% off any full season betting package at sharp.football OddsJam code WARREN: free week trial and 40% off your first month, oddsjam.com
GUESTS Rich Hribar, Sharp Football Analysis, @LordReebs Ryan McCrystal, Sharp Football Analysis, college football Joe Gibbs, Sharp Football Analysis, referee analysis Hosted by Warren Sharp, @SharpFootball
Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
PROMO CODES
SHOW35: two weeks free on the NFL Plus monthly package at https://sharp.football
OddsJam code WARREN: free week trial and 40% off your first month, https://oddsjam.com/nfl/screen/moneyline?promo=warren
GUESTS
Rich Hribar, Sharp Football Analysis, @LordReebs
Ryan McCrystal, Sharp Football Analysis, college football
Joe Gibbs, Sharp Football Analysis, referee analysis
Hosted by Warren Sharp, @SharpFootball
MORE RESOURCES
The Worksheet: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/fantasy/the-worksheet/
The 2026 Football Preview book: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/warren-sharp-book-nfl-football-preview/
All packages: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/packages/
Follow us: https://www.youtube.com/@SharpFootballAnalysis and https://x.com/SharpFootball
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The Worksheet, a full preview of every single game every week written by Rich Hribar, is included with the fantasy packages: the worksheet.
PROMO CODES SHOW85: 85% off any weekly betting package at sharp.football SHOW25: 25% off a monthly or season-long package OddsJam code WARREN: free trial and 40% off your first month, oddsjam.com
GUESTS Rich Hribar, Sharp Football Analysis, @LordReebs Ryan McCrystal, Sharp Football Analysis, college football Joe Gibbs, Sharp Football Analysis, referee analysis Hosted by Warren Sharp, @SharpFootball
