Executive summary

The Trump administration backtracked from his tariff plan, reducing tariffs from most countries to 10%, but imposing tariffs of 145% on China, which answered with 125% tariffs on US imports and export controls on rare earth metals.

The US saw protests against Trump and DOGE, and the US Supreme court ruled that the administration must facilitate the return of an immigrant wrongly deported to El Salvador.

OpenAI is slashing the amount of safety testing they will do of their new AI models, from months down to days, and Google launched a new AI chip for inference.

Negotiations between the US and Iran on its nuclear program are starting, reducing our estimated probability of a US strike to 15%.

The number of US [...]

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Outline:

(00:23) Executive summary

(01:22) Economy

(04:26) Tech and AI

(05:57) Geopolitics

(05:59) Middle East

(06:02) Iran

(08:09) Gaza

(08:26) Yemen

(08:59) Africa

(09:20) Americas

(13:10) Asia

(14:33) Europe

(16:10) Biorisk

---

First published:
April 14th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/global-risks-weekly-roundup-152025

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Executive summary

China carried out more aggressive live-fire military exercises around Taiwan. The US relocated missile batteries from the Pacific into the Middle East, raising some concerns that it was leaving the Pacific region vulnerable.

Le Pen, the frontrunner for the 2027 French elections, was barred from running in those elections after being found guilty of embezzlement.

Global stock markets have been falling sharply since Trump announced new tariffs on April 2; these new tariffs are larger than those imposed by the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act in 1930. Crude oil prices have been falling as well, in another sign of economic weakening. Sentinel forecasters estimate that there is a 63% chance of a global recession this year.

Meta started releasing distilled models from their Llama [...]

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Outline:

(01:15) Global Economy

(04:09) Geopolitics

(04:11) US

(07:44) Europe

(09:03) Middle East

(10:48) Asia

(11:49) Africa

(12:20) Biorisk

(12:37) Artificial Intelligence

---

First published:
April 7th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/global-risks-weekly-roundup-142025

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Sentinel status: Greenish 🟢

Top items:

• Trump invoked the Alien Enemies Act against Venezuelans and the Tren de Aragua gang. He subsequently deported 238 alleged members to El Salvador, ignoring a court order.

• Chinese “invasion barges” were deployed in an exercise.

• The US resumed military aid to Ukraine, and a ceasefire in the next six months at 50/50

Forecaster Estimates

Forecasters, on aggregate, think that a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine in the next six months is a coin toss (48%, ranging from 35% to 70%). Polymarket’s forecast is higher, at 61%, for a ceasefire of any duration by July.

Forecasters also consider it a coin toss (aggregate of 49%; ranging from 28% to 70%) whether an agreement to expand [...]

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Outline:

(00:50) Forecaster Estimates

(01:56) Geopolitics

(01:58) United States

(04:36) Europe

(06:07) Middle East

(08:19) Africa

(09:00) Asia

(10:32) Biorisk

(10:47) Tech and AI

(13:40) Climate

---

First published:
March 17th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/sentinels-global-risks-weekly-roundup

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Executive summary

Tensions between the US and Iran continued, as Iran replied to Trump's letter demanding that a new nuclear agreement be reached, and the US directed more military assets to positions near Iran. Last week, we estimated that there is a 1 in 3 chance that the US will strike Iran by the end of April, but have since lowered our estimate a bit.

There are large-scale demonstrations in Turkey, although our forecasters assign only a ~4% chance that Erdoğan will be out of power by the end of the year.

Food is running out in Gaza as Israel's blockade continues, and some demonstrators protested against Hamas.

The Chinese state and media appear to be emphasizing more anti-Taiwan-independence sentiment, in a way reminiscent [...]

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Outline:

(01:24) Geopolitics

(01:27) Middle East

(01:52) 1 in 3 chance that US will strike Iran by end of April

(04:50) Europe

(06:54) Asia-Pacific

(08:01) The Americas

(10:08) Africa

(10:49) Tech

(12:54) Biorisks

(13:40) Global economy

---

First published:
March 31st, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/global-risks-weekly-roundup-132025

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Sentinel forecasters jointly estimate that there is a 36% chance (range, 25%-60%) that the US will launch airstrikes against nuclear weapons program facilities in Iran by the end of April, starting most likely between April 10 and April 25 and ending likely before May 1.

The US military is bringing approximately six B-2 stealth bombers to a joint US-UK military base on Diego Garcia, an island in the Indian Ocean that is well-positioned for staging attacks on either Yemen or Iran. The B-2 bomber is one of the only US military aircraft capable of carrying the GBU-57A/B MOP, the largest of the US "bunker buster" bombs that can penetrate fortified underground facilities; it can also drop a wide range of other bombs, including smaller bunker busters. In addition, three C-17 cargo aircraft have flown to Diego Garcia to support the B-2s, and one to support KC-135 Stratotankers that refuel [...]

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First published:
March 27th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/1-in-3-chance-of-us-to-strike-iran

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Sentinel status: Greenish 🟢

Top items:

• Trump invoked the Alien Enemies Act against Venezuelans and the Tren de Aragua gang. He subsequently deported 238 alleged members to El Salvador, ignoring a court order.

• Chinese “invasion barges” were deployed in an exercise.

• The US resumed military aid to Ukraine, and a ceasefire in the next six months at 50/50

Forecaster Estimates

Forecasters, on aggregate, think that a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine in the next six months is a coin toss (48%, ranging from 35% to 70%). Polymarket's forecast is higher, at 61%, for a ceasefire of any duration by July.

Forecasters also consider it a coin toss (aggregate of 49%; ranging from 28% to 70%) whether an agreement to expand [...]

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First published:
March 17th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/sentinels-global-risks-weekly-roundup?voice=andrew_dragon

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Sentinel status: Greenish 🟢

Top items:

• Trump invoked the Alien Enemies Act against Venezuelans and the Tren de Aragua gang. He subsequently deported 238 alleged members to El Salvador, ignoring a court order.

• Chinese “invasion barges” were deployed in an exercise.

• The US resumed military aid to Ukraine, and a ceasefire in the next six months at 50/50

Forecaster Estimates

Forecasters, on aggregate, think that a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine in the next six months is a coin toss (48%, ranging from 35% to 70%). Polymarket's forecast is higher, at 61%, for a ceasefire of any duration by July.

Forecasters also consider it a coin toss (aggregate of 49%; ranging from 28% to 70%) whether an agreement to expand [...]

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Outline:

(00:51) Forecaster Estimates

(01:56) Geopolitics

(01:59) United States

(04:32) Europe

(06:00) Middle East

(08:16) Africa

(08:57) Asia

(10:26) Biorisk

(10:39) Tech and AI

(13:39) Climate

---

First published:
March 17th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/sentinels-global-risks-weekly-roundup?voice=andrew

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Status: Greenish 🟢

Executive summary

Forecasters believe there's an 18% chance (range: 4%-50%) that there will be a famine in any part of Gaza by the end of 2025, according to the UN and its Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC). A Category 5 rating would result in a positive resolution, with the last IPC update suggesting that all of Gaza was in Category 4.

As the US is becoming a less reliable geopolitical ally, countries from France to South Korea are making their own moves. The UK Government hosted military leaders in London to plan for a possible deployment of troops to Ukraine, with the French President saying that Russia's permission is not needed for this. On whether there will be a [...]

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Outline:

(00:24) Executive summary

(02:25) Long tail of events

(02:35) Biorisks

(06:13) Geopolitics

(06:17) Middle East

(07:16) Europe

(09:33) Asia-Pacific

(10:00) The Americas

(12:23) Tech

---

First published:
March 24th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/sentinels-global-risks-weekly-roundup-79e

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Sentinel status: Greenish 🟢

Top items:

• Trump invoked the Alien Enemies Act against Venezuelans and the Tren de Aragua gang. He subsequently deported 238 alleged members to El Salvador, ignoring a court order.

• Chinese “invasion barges” were deployed in an exercise.

• The US resumed military aid to Ukraine, and a ceasefire in the next six months at 50/50

Forecaster Estimates

Forecasters, on aggregate, think that a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine in the next six months is a coin toss (48%, ranging from 35% to 70%). Polymarket's forecast is higher, at 61%, for a ceasefire of any duration by July.

Forecasters also consider it a coin toss (aggregate of 49%; ranging from 28% to 70%) whether an agreement to expand [...]

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Outline:

(00:52) Forecaster Estimates

(01:54) Geopolitics

(01:57) United States

(04:27) Europe

(05:52) Middle East

(08:01) Africa

(08:40) Asia

(10:10) Biorisk

(10:24) Tech and AI

(13:25) Climate

---

First published:
March 17th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/sentinels-global-risks-weekly-roundup?voice=ryan

---

Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Sentinel status: Greenish 🟢

Top items:

• Trump invoked the Alien Enemies Act against Venezuelans and the Tren de Aragua gang. He subsequently deported 238 alleged members to El Salvador, ignoring a court order.

• Chinese “invasion barges” were deployed in an exercise.

• The US resumed military aid to Ukraine, and a ceasefire in the next six months at 50/50

Forecaster Estimates

Forecasters, on aggregate, think that a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine in the next six months is a coin toss (48%, ranging from 35% to 70%). Polymarket's forecast is higher, at 61%, for a ceasefire of any duration by July.

Forecasters also consider it a coin toss (aggregate of 49%; ranging from 28% to 70%) whether an agreement to expand [...]

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Outline:

(00:53) Forecaster Estimates

(02:01) Geopolitics

(02:04) United States

(04:47) Europe

(06:19) Middle East

(08:34) Africa

(09:17) Asia

(10:52) Biorisk

(11:08) Tech and AI

(14:26) Climate

---

First published:
March 17th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/sentinels-global-risks-weekly-roundup?voice=ava

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Sentinel status: Greenish 🟢

Top items:

• Market uncertainty and political turmoil over Trump tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China

• Increasing US-China tensions

• Anthropic’s Claude Code displays reward-hacking tendencies.

Forecaster Estimates

Taiwan has been a hot topic in the last week as China ramps up their military exercises. On the question of whether China would attempt to invade Taiwan by 2030, forecasters estimated a 43% chance of this occurring (range: 20% to 70%).

There has been significant speculation online over whether OpenAI has lost its edge. Our estimates on which AI company currently has the most capable general-purpose AI model internally are:

• P(OpenAI is in the lead) = 40%

• P(Google DeepMind is in the lead) = [...]

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Outline:

(00:35) Forecaster Estimates

(01:34) Geopolitics

(01:37) United States

(05:54) Canada

(06:07) Europe

(09:00) Middle East

(10:02) Africa

(10:28) Asia

(13:13) Biorisk

(14:35) Artificial Intelligence

(19:39) Miscellanea

---

First published:
March 10th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/sentinel-minutes-102025-trump-tariffs

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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and, the Gentle Singularity.

Executive summary

• Israel attacked Iran's nuclear weapons program and military leadership - Israel and Iran are now at war

• Anti-ICE and No Kings protests took place in over 2,100 locations in the US and remained largely peaceful

• Trump steps up deportation plans, backs down from targeting agricultural, hotel and restaurant workers

• China simultaneously deployed two aircraft carriers in the Pacific

• The US seeks a peace deal in the Rwanda-Congo conflict by July

• Sam Altman writes about the “Gentle singularity”

• The bird flu virus strain that infected a Michigan dairy farmer is capable of airborne transmission

Geopoliticshttps://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/israel-attacks-iran-us-protests-continue

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until midnight NYC time.

This article was collaboratively written by: Nuño Sempere, Brian Yu, Kati Conen, Alex Lyzhov, Jaeho Lee and 30+ other contributors. Those of us who are in the US are going to sleep, but the document continues being available and freely editable here, and by the time US readers wake up many new developments may have arisen.

Last week, the IAEA found Iran in non-compliance for the first time in 20 years. The previous day saw an escalation of tensions and a breakdown of dialogue around the nuclear programme.

Today, Israel struck Iran, with known sites being Tabriz, Tehran, Natanz, Kermanshah, Arak, Isfahan, Sanandaj, Ilam, Ahvaz (provincial capital of Khuzestan, Iran's oil-producing province), Chazabeh border crossing in Khuzestan. Israel has aimed for both Iran's nuclear program and its leadership.

Although this is a greatly escalatory step, our sense is that this will play out over [...]

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Outline:

(02:43) Likely developments

(08:02) Markets and Prediction Markets

(09:41) Live questions

(13:49) Worst-case scenarios

(16:15) International Reactions

(17:45) Possible actions

(18:32) What are some good signals that were right/are useful to look at

(19:26) License for this doc: MIT.

---

First published:
June 13th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/making-sense-of-israels-strike-on

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

Forecaster perspectives

Sentinel forecasters in aggregate assess as “83% true” (65% to 100%) the statement that the Trump administration has disobeyed the Supreme Court so far. On the one hand, the Trump administration has done nothing to “facilitate” bringing Abrego García back to the US, and the White House's tweet shown above clearly indicates that it won’t try to; on the other hand, it could yet still do so when the current news cycle subsides. On April 17th, forecasters estimated a 66% chance (50% to ~100%) that Abrego García will not be brought back to the US within the next 60 days (by June 17).

Our forecasters estimate a 14% (range, 10% to 25%) probability that Trump will invoke the Insurrection Act by July [...]

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Outline:

(00:11) Forecaster perspectives

(03:19) Summary of events

(03:34) The Abrego García US Supreme Court case.

(05:45) Developments since the Abrego García Supreme Court case

(08:16) Next steps for the court case

(09:45) Plans for further deportations

(11:38) The Insurrection Act

(12:58) Implications and recommendations

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First published:
April 21st, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/the-us-executive-vs-supreme-court

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Executive summary

Trump federalized National Guard troops and ordered them to be deployed to Los Angeles amid anti-deportation protests, against the California governor's wishes. Federal officials are calling the protests an insurrection, setting the stage for the possibility that the Insurrection Act may be invoked, which would allow the military to be used for law enforcement within the US. Forecasters estimate that there is a 40% (range: 25% to 65%) chance that Trump will invoke the Insurrection Act in the next two months.

Our forecasting team updated their estimates of the probability that Russia would use a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine by July 1st. Last week we forecasted a 0.4% chance for this possibility; we now estimate a ~0.04% chance (range: 0.02% to [...]

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Outline:

(00:21) Executive summary

(02:20) Geopolitics

(02:22) United States

(12:06) Europe

(12:41) Ukraine

(15:10) Greenland

(15:50) Middle East

(17:19) Asia

(17:35) Africa

(18:00) Economy

(20:56) Artificial Intelligence and Technology

(23:54) Biorisks

(26:53) Climate and Nature

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First published:
June 9th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/trump-sent-the-national-guard-to

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Executive summary

On Sunday, Ukraine carried out a drone attack on five Russian military airbases, destroying 41 military planes, including strategic bombers. The attack took 18 months to plan and execute, and some Russian military bloggers are calling it “Russia's Pearl Harbor.”

The budget bill passed by the US House contains a provision that would allow the federal government to increase taxes on foreign investments, which would make refinancing US debt more expensive. The Trump administration halted all student visa applications and moved to revoke the visas of all Chinese students. A US federal judge granted DOGE access to a major Treasury payment system.

The IAEA found that Iran has been enriching uranium rapidly. Talks between the US and Iran over Iran's nuclear program [...]

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Outline:

(00:18) Executive summary

(02:01) Economy

(04:02) Geopolitics

(04:04) Europe

(07:49) United States

(10:54) Middle East

(13:18) Gaza

(14:01) Yemen

(14:25) Asia

(14:28) East Asia

(15:00) India/Pakistan

(15:27) Biorisks

(16:45) AI and Technology

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First published:
June 2nd, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/ukraine-drones-destroy-41-russian

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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...and the short term-chance of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan this year and the next.

Executive summary

The fifth round of nuclear talks between the US and Iran concluded with no agreement, but the two sides agreed to meet again. US intelligence suggests that Israel may strike Iranian nuclear sites, with or without Trump's blessing, if the talks break down. Forecasters estimate a 22% chance of a US and/or Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear sites by the end of August.

Anthropic released their latest and most powerful AI model, Claude 4, and activated their ASL-3 safety protections for the first time. Pre-release testing revealed some worrying but rare tendencies, while users have already started to jailbreak the model.

Trump threatened to impose tariffs [...]

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Outline:

(00:24) Executive summary

(01:25) Geopolitics

(01:28) Middle East

(04:22) Asia-Pacific

(06:10) Europe

(08:46) United States

(09:56) Africa

(10:05) Technology

(13:21) Global economy

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First published:
May 26th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/iran-nuclear-talks-survive-claude

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Executive summary

Moody's downgraded the US credit rating as the US budget deficit grows and US borrowing costs rise. House Republicans are advancing a budget that would increase the deficit further. Meanwhile, China is reducing its holdings of US Treasuries and its dependencies on foreign components in its supply chains as it seeks to de-risk its economy from the US and the West.

Google announced a new coding agent, AlphaEvolve, that has creative problem-solving abilities. Gulf states agreed to more than $1T in US investments and joint enterprises during a visit by Trump to the Middle East, including joint AI ventures. Forecasters estimated a 28% chance (range, 25-30%) that the US will pass a 10-year ban on states regulating AI by the end of [...]

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Outline:

(00:21) Executive summary

(04:16) Geopolitics

(04:19) United States

(06:06) Europe

(08:27) Asia

(09:23) Middle East

(11:17) Gaza

(12:22) Turkey

(13:24) Africa

(13:44) AI and Technology

(20:38) Biorisks

(22:01) Climate

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First published:
May 19th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/global-risks-weekly-roundup-202025-df7

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Executive summary

• India and Pakistan have agreed to a ceasefire, and despite initial breaches, it now seems to be holding.

• The Trump administration and China agreed to reduce tariffs for 90 days while talks continue. Markets rejoiced.

• The Trump administration continues to look into ending due process for immigrants to be deported and is making arrangements to deport undocumented immigrants to many countries around the world.

• Israel is set to start a major operation in Gaza soon.

• The nonprofit OpenAI will retain control of the for-profit arm after restructuring.

Global Economy

After talks [...]

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Outline:

(00:17) Executive summary

(00:58) Global Economy

(05:14) Geopolitics

(05:17) India/Pakistan

(08:07) United States

(13:13) Europe

(15:17) Middle East

(16:39) Gaza

(18:47) Syria

(18:54) Yemen

(19:50) Iran

(20:31) Africa

(21:07) Biorisk

(22:11) AI

(25:49) Climate and Nature

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First published:
May 12th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/global-risks-weekly-roundup-202025

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Executive summary

• Shortages of some goods expected in the US starting later this month, because of tariffs.

• The power outage on the Iberian Peninsula was the worst in Europe since 2003, and Europe may have been close to a more widespread blackout.

• Trump wants to involve the military in policing within the US.

• Negotiations between the US and Iran over its nuclear weapons program have stalled.

• Microsoft will host xAI's Grok model in its cloud service, in a move to reduce Microsoft's dependency on OpenAI.

• Gaza is running out of food, and the UN warns of famine.

• India-Pakistan tensions remain high.

Geopoliticshttps://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/global-risks-weekly-roundup-182025

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Executive summary

After a terrorist attack in Kashmir left 26 dead, relations between India and Pakistan sharply deteriorated, culminating in the exchange of fire across the border between the two countries. Forecasters examined the possibility of escalation.

The third round of nuclear talks between the US and Iran concluded. On the same day, a blast at Iran's Bandar Abbas port left hundreds injured, while Trump had a positive face-to-face meeting with President Zelensky in the Vatican City following another rocky week for US-Ukraine relations.

OpenAI's new models suggest that the length of tasks that AIs can do is now doubling roughly every four months.

Geopoliticshttps://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/global-risks-weekly-roundup-172025

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Also Iran nuclear talks, dollar falling, trade disruptions.

Executive summary

Fallout from Trump's tariffs continues: trade patterns are shifting, Trump is feuding with the Chair of the Federal Reserve, the dollar is falling relative to other currencies, and US imports and exports are plummeting, as are manufacturing indicators in the US.

The Trump administration continues to clash with the judicial branch about deportations without due process. The Supreme Court halted another round of deportations to the jail in El Salvador. You can read our brief on this topic here. Sentinel forecasters in aggregate assess as “83% true” that the Trump administration has disobeyed the Supreme Court so far.

The US and Iran have concluded two rounds of nuclear talks and a third is [...]

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Outline:

(00:26) Executive summary

(01:25) Economy

(04:54) AI and Technology

(04:58) OpenAI

(06:59) Other AI news

(08:13) Other Technology

(08:23) Bio

(10:40) Geopolitics

(10:43) United States

(14:29) Asia

(16:21) Africa

(17:25) Middle East

(18:00) Iran

(18:44) Gaza

(19:04) Yemen

(19:40) Weird

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First published:
April 21st, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/global-risks-weekly-roundup-162025

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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