Explorez tous les épisodes du podcast Risk of Ruin
| Titre | Date | Durée | |
|---|---|---|---|
| From Pinnacle Sports to Jane Street | 07 sept. 2026 | 01:04:28 | |
Support the show by subscribing to the Premium Substack. (Search "ARCHIVE" for past paywalled episodes.) Guest: Zvi Mowshowitz grew up playing Magic the Gathering. He played on the Pro Tour, and is now in the Magic Pro Tour Hall of Fame. He then moved on to sports betting, and eventually became a trader for Pinnacle Sports. Zvi has also worked for the quant trading firm Jane Street. Zvi currently writes the Don't Worry About the Vase Substack which provides daily expansive coverage of AI. You can follow him on X. Email the show: risk of ruin pod at gmail Follow the show on X: Antonino DeRosa on Gambling With an Edge. | |||
| Advantage Programming - Part II | 06 juil. 2026 | 00:40:36 | |
Canzhi is a programmer and also part of a sports betting syndicate. He talks about his path from coding in middle school to computer science in college, to becoming a software developer. Then he left the mainstream world for professional gambling. Canzhi also talks about using OpenAI Codex to do the data science work that his betting group relies on. Follow Canzhi on Twitter: https://x.com/canzhiye Follow the show on Twitter: https://x.com/halfkelly Substack Archive: https://riskofruinpod.substack.com/ (To find past paywalled episodes of the show search the word "ARCHIVE" in the search bar in the top right). Email the show: risk of ruin pod at gmail | |||
| Advantage Programming - Part I | 26 juin 2026 | 01:00:48 | |
Cartwright is an advantage player and is in a unique position to comment on the intersection of programming and advantage play. He was a software engineer until he left that career for full time gambling. In the past he has used his programming skills to hit vulnerable table games. Now he is more focused on sports. He talks about AI and advantage play. Cartwright on Gambling With an Edge: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jJ1IXeW9y8s Subscribe to the premium Substack: https://riskofruinpod.substack.com/ Twitter: https://x.com/halfkelly Email: risk of ruin pod at gmail | |||
| Turning Over 70,000 Rocks | 14 mai 2026 | 00:53:39 | |
Andrew Martin is the CEO of Fairlight Capital. Fairlight invests in small call value stocks all over the world. In this episode Andrew talks about finding these value names, his diligence process, the firm's use of AI, and how to know whether to sell a loser. Fairlight's investor letters: https://www.fairlightcapital.com/investor-letters Follow Andrew on Twitter: https://x.com/Fairlight_Cap Follow the show on Twitter: https://x.com/halfkelly Support the show: https://riskofruinpod.substack.com/ LEGAL DISCLAIMER: This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial, legal, or tax advice. Investing involves risk, including potential loss of principal. Always consult with a certified financial professional to consider your personal circumstances before making any investment decisions. | |||
| Call Security | 25 mars 2026 | 01:13:26 | |
Jordan and Ohio Mike are part of a group of advantage players that spread their plays across casinos (physical and online), sportsbooks (physical and online), and various manufactured spending related opportunities. Subscribe to the Substack and Support the show: https://riskofruinpod.substack.com/ Email: risk of ruin pod at gmail Follow the show on Twitter: https://x.com/halfkelly | |||
| Expected Goals | 21 janv. 2026 | 01:07:04 | |
Preston Johnson and a group called WAGMI United had a novel idea to buy an English football club and then use NFT sales to fund player spending. Their goal was to take a club from League Two and gain eventual promotion to the Premier League. Follow Preston on Twitter: https://x.com/SportsCheetah Subscribe to the Premium Substack: https://riskofruinpod.substack.com/ Preston on Bet the Process: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/end-of-year-with-sports-cheetah-preston-johnson/id1291010585?i=1000743258624 Follow the show on Twitter: https://x.com/halfkelly Email the show: risk of ruin pod at gmail. | |||
| Let Them Eat Cake | 08 déc. 2025 | 01:40:51 | |
A very specific housing related bet. How did we go from The Big Short... to a housing shortage in such a short time? Governments in seemingly disparate places are having to take drastic measures to enable more housing development. This episode is about how those conditions materialized in the United States, and also whether anything can be done to ameliorate the situation. Kevin Erdmann is a Senior Affiliated Scholar at the Mercatus Center.
Ben Bear is the CEO of BuildCasa. Cody is a homebuilder in Oregon. Show resources:
Support the show: Subscribe to the Premium Substack Email me: riskofruinpod at gmail Follow me on Twitter: @halfkelly | |||
| Trading Games | 17 oct. 2025 | 01:05:58 | |
Kris Abdelmessih writes the Moontower newsletter which is required reading for any edge seeking generalist who wants to learn about the world of volatility. Kris got his start as a trader over 20 years ago with Susquehanna. He talks about getting the job, SIG’s training program, and the “degenerate atmosphere.” Kris also talks about his career where he moved from pit to pit, and then ultimately became a portfolio manager at a vol focused hedge fund. Kris also has options analytics software - Moontower AI - and you can follow him on Twitter - @KrisAbdelmessih. References from the episode: David Sklansky - Getting the Best of It Michael Lewis - Liar’s Poker Advantage Podcast Mixtape Vol I Advantage Podcast Mixtape Vol II Follow me on Twitter - @halfkelly. | |||
| Trial and Error | 11 sept. 2025 | 01:08:17 | |
Thomas started as a losing bettor, and then learned to win. Eventually he won so much that a regulated sportsbooks stole several million dollars from him. He talks about CLV, harvesting bonuses, faking the NBA overnight market, parlays, SGPs, round robins, and VIP rewards. Follow Thomas on Twitter: https://x.com/t_stephens97 Subscribe to the Premium Substack: https://riskofruinpod.substack.com/p/trial-and-error?r=ckepv&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false Follow the show on Twitter: https://x.com/halfkelly | |||
| Casino Schemes | 11 août 2025 | 01:56:19 | |
Jamie, Steve, and Kyle are advantage players. They talk about beating casino games including carnival games, automatic roulette wheels, and sweepstakes slot machines. Support the show: https://riskofruinpod.substack.com/ References from the episode: Laurence Scott on Gambling With an Edge. Mark Billings on Gambling With an Edge (related to biased wheels), and also using computers. Mark Billings on Risk of Ruin. Bloomberg article on roulette. A Man for All Markets - which describes Ed Thorp’s effort to beat roulette. Kyle’s appearance on Gambling With an Edge. Email the show: risk of ruin pod at gmail Follow on Twitter: https://x.com/halfkelly | |||
| Betting on Chaos | 11 août 2025 | 01:11:19 | |
Domer is a prediction market trader, and is one of the biggest bettors on Polymarket. He talks about his journey from Intrade, to Predictit, to Polymarket. He also talks about the 2024 election, which was a rollercoaster. It featured highs - like backing Kamala Harris before President Joe Biden had even dropped out of the race - and also lows, like being short Trump on election night. Domer also talks about unraveling the mystery of the so-called French Whale. Domer on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/profile/0x9d84ce0306f8551e02efef1680475fc0f1dc1344 Domer on Twitter: https://x.com/Domahhhh Support the show by subscribing on Substack: https://riskofruinpod.substack.com Follow the show on Twitter: https://x.com/halfkelly | |||
| Life's Too Short | 10 août 2025 | 00:53:32 | |
Marc Cohodes made a living exposing fraudulent companies, and profiting when their stock prices collapsed. But the life of a short seller is spent on a high wire because executives willing to engage in fraud don't play by the rules when their freedom is at stake. Marc tells the stories of the adversity he's faced holding public companies accountable. | |||
| Credit Card Arbitrage | 09 août 2025 | 01:01:57 | |
Matt writes the blog "Miles Earn and Burn" which stands alone in the credit card space. He has no ads on the site, and he writes about advanced strategies that don't make it into the mainstream travel blog world. The post that got me interested in having Matt as a guest said basically: go to your local credit union and see if there's anything that you might be able to profit from. In the advantage play world that would be called scouting. In the manufactured spend world it's known as probing. https://milesearnandburn.com/index.php/2023/09/29/taking-a-stroll-to-the-local-financial-district/ | |||
| Movers | 08 août 2025 | 01:35:15 | |
Curtis, Phil, and Reilly are professional sports bettors that provide the valuable service of getting down for originating groups. They are logistics providers in the gambling world. They talk about starting as casino APs, finding sports, and having several hundred thousand dollars taken from them by a sportsbook. | |||
| Inside Long Term Capital | 07 août 2025 | 01:03:12 | |
The story of Long Term Capital Management as told by LTCM partner Eric Rosenfeld. Eric earned a PhD from MIT, then taught at Harvard Business School, then became a trader at Salomon, then was a founding partner of LTCM. | |||
| Zero, by Way of a Hundred | 07 août 2025 | 00:55:27 | |
John Hempton runs Bronte Capital, which generates its excess returns primarily through shorting fraudulent companies. John walks through a hypothetical short, explaining how they find it, how they size positions, and the kinds of returns that can be expected. He also discusses his shorts of Valeant Pharmaceutical and Wirecard. | |||
| Greetings from Las Vegas - Part I | 23 mai 2025 | 00:46:51 | |
Mark DeRosa, Zack White, and Rufus Peabody. The story a group of friends from Appalachian State that went on to team up with an econ grad from Yale. They started playing casino games and eventually would go on to bet the max at sports books all over Las Vegas. | |||
| Greetings from Las Vegas - Part II | 22 mai 2025 | 00:45:32 | |
Mark DeRosa, Zack White, and Rufus Peabody. The story a group of friends from Appalachian State that went on to team up with an econ grad from Yale. They started playing casino games and eventually would go on to bet the max at sports books all over Las Vegas. | |||
| The Road of Trials | 22 mai 2025 | 00:49:55 | |
Houyi went from Yale Law School to a job in finance before he left it all behind to become a professional advantage player. He talks about counting cards, learning to play hole cards, traveling the world, and a fateful poker game in Cambodia. | |||
| The Audacity of Help | 21 mai 2025 | 01:13:15 | |
Richard Munchkin and Darryl Purpose are career advantage players. Over the past 40 years they've teamed up to win millions of dollars from casinos. In this episode they recount some of the war stories and also offer reflections on the nature of teamwork. | |||
| You Can't Beat the Lottery* | 23 juil. 2024 | 00:58:29 | |
Mr. Doppy became an advantage player hustling the video poker game Ultimate X. Since then he's gone after online sports books, credit card points, and also a state lottery. | |||
| Blackjack Legacy | 04 mars 2024 | 00:50:06 | |
Jeff Ma was a member of the MIT Blackjack Team. He told his story to the writer Ben Mezrich, who wrote a book titled "Bringing Down the House." The book was later made into the movie "21" which starred Kevin Spacey, Kate Bosworth, and Jim Sturgess. | |||
| A Healthy Disrespect | 02 mars 2024 | 01:00:04 | |
Kyle Boddy is the founder of Driveline Baseball, which promises data driven performance training. He is best known for training pitchers in baseball. Prior to his career in sports Kyle was a professional gambler. On this episode he tells stories about exploiting online casino bonuses, as well as shuffle tracking, and playing poker. | |||
| The Character Building Side Effect of Losing | 26 déc. 2023 | 00:52:21 | |
Jason Strasser is the co-founder and Chief Investment Officer of Caption Partners. While in college Jason became a high stakes poker player and was making $100k/month before he left competitive poker for Wall Street. Today he generates his edge trading options, looking for one-off events where the volatility of the options are mispriced by algorithms. | |||
| Waiting on Value | 26 déc. 2023 | 00:49:06 | |
Evan Tindell is a former poker player and now is the CIO of Bireme Capital. He talks about how he got into the market, and also his value investing based process for finding investments. | |||
| The Mayfair Revisited | 20 oct. 2023 | 01:24:26 | |
Erik Seidel and Steve Zolotow were among the gamblers to come out of the storied Mayfair Club in New York City. The Mayfair inspired some of the locations in Rounders, and is also known for the breadth of success that its players have had in poker. The episode covers the history of the club, its bridge and backgammon roots, and the careers of Erik and Steve. | |||
| A Family Business | 18 oct. 2023 | 01:02:02 | |
Jim and Dan Pasko talk about their father and son sportsbetting operation. The Paskos use math to find positive EV bets like correlated parlays and player props. Jim Pasko has been a professional gambler for almost his entire adult life, first starting as a backgammon player during the heyday of that game. Dan joined him in professional gambling when they found opportunities with the early internet sportsbooks. | |||
| The Frontier - Part II | 19 août 2023 | 00:58:26 | |
To this point we've published 33 podcast episodes covering everything from slot machines to hedge funds. This episode is Part II of an attempt to make sense of the guests, and make sense of the domain they operate in. To find the show on all of the platforms check out the Linktree. https://linktr.ee/johnreeder | |||
| The Frontier - Part I | 17 août 2023 | 01:10:18 | |
To this point we've published 33 podcast episodes covering everything from slot machines to hedge funds. This episode is Part I of an attempt to make sense of the guests, and make sense of the domain they operate in. | |||
| The Disrespected | 01 mai 2023 | 01:12:42 | |
Marc Cohodes was the subject of the prior episode titled "Life's Too Short." Marc returns to the podcast to talk about figuring out the FTX scheme, using that to short Silvergate, and Signature Banks, and also the banking turmoil that has followed. | |||
| From Blackjack to Black Monday | 08 févr. 2023 | 00:34:05 | |
Blair Hull played on the original Big Player blackjack team in the 1970s. He played with Al Francesco, Ken Uston, and ran into other pioneers of the game including Keith Taft. The Francesco teams were the subject of the book "The Big Player". After blackjack Blair moved into the financial markets where he used his proprietary options strategies to turn $25,000 into millions. Blair talks about his life searching for edges, and the lessons he learned. | |||