Predictive History, Professor Jiang, No Ads – Détails, épisodes et analyse

Professor Jiang answers your questions!

In his June 13, 2024 class, Jiang Xueqin concludes his Geo-Strategy course by discussing how to use AI to chart a better future for humanity:In his Foundation series, Isaac Asimov introduces the science of psychohistory. Is it really possible to predict the future by mathematically modeling historical development?By mathematically modeling history, "Cliodynamics" has revealed interesting patterns. For example, Peter Turchin has discovered that it's the "over-production of elites" that drives social upheaval. The advent of AI presents new possibilities for the mathematical modeling of history, and can even help us achieve psychohistory. But to do so would require decades of painstaking research and analysis. It would also mean overturning the entire field of history, and looking at all of the past with a more critical and nuanced eye. Finally, much of this research and development can only happen in a time of global collapse, when all of humanity is united in creating an open, progressive, and democratic future. In his final message to his students, Jiang Xueqin stresses that the future is not something that happens -- it is something that has to be imagined and fought for.

In his May 5, 2024 class, Jiang Xueqin explains to his Chinese high school students how empire is eroding the stability and vitality of the American Republic: From 1950-1980, America's manufacturing sector accounted for 40 percent of GDP, employed 30 percent of its workforce, and enjoyed 40 percent of total profits. Today, it's only 10 percent of GDP, and the financial services sector is ascendant. Financial services account for 22 percent of GDP, enjoy 40 percent of profits, and employs 5 percent of America's workforce. This trend has led to income inequality, divisive politics, and economic volatility. Young people feel they are being left behind, the best and brightest are flocking to Wall Street, and corporations are focused more on financial engineering than on innovation. What's driving this trend? America's empire, which is causing foreign money to flood its economy. And as the empire becomes addicted to easy money it may have to fight a war to defend the petrodollar.

Egypt, Mesopotamia, and the Indus Valley were the three great civilizations of the Bronze Age. What made the Indus Valley Civilization distinct? Why did they decline? What is their legacy?In this lecture to his Chinese high school students, Jiang Xueqin explains that the Indus Valley Civilization (also known as the Harappan Civilization) was mainly a peaceful and egalitarian society, which prospered because of its global trade networks. This civilization had standardized weights and measurements, sophisticated urban planning, as well as private indoor latrines. The dramatic climate change of the 4.2 kiloyear event caused Egypt’s Old Kingdom, Mesopotamia’s Akkadian empire, and the Indus Valley Civilization to decline. The Egyptians left us the Pyramids, the Mesopotamians left us the Epic of Gilgamesh, and the Harappans left us spiritual wealth. From the interaction with the Proto-Indo-Iranians, the Harappan civilization would eventually give birth to Hinduism, Buddhism, Jainism, and Sikhism, which continue to give hope and meaning to billions of people today.

In this lecture to his Chinese high school students, Jiang Xueqin explains why Mesopotamia became the cradle of civilization. He explains that geography determined the destinies and mythologies of Egypt and Mesopotamia. Protected by natural boundaries and nurtured by the bountiful Nile, Egypt believed in benevolent Gods. Mesopotamia had no natural boundaries and its two rivers -- the Euphrates and Tigris -- were mercurial and chaotic, which led people to believe that the Gods demanded their servitude and struggle. This belief is expressed in the two major mythologies of Mesopotamia -- "Enuma Elish" as well as "The Epic of Gilgamesh." This belief, as well as the fact that Mesopotamia was the center of the Bronze Age world, led the Sumerians to create the innovations that would form the basis of civilization.

For thousands of years, the Great Pyramid of Giza has captivated and captured the imagination of the world. Why was it built?In this lecture to Chinese high school students, Jiang Xueqin argues against the mainstream theory that the Great Pyramid was built as a grand tomb for the Pharaoh. He argues that the Great Pyramid was Ancient Egypt’s Manhattan Project, an attempt to unravel the secrets of the universe and channel the power of God to create eternal peace on Earth.

In this talk to Chinese high school students Jiang Xueqin explains why Vergil's "The Aeneid" is such brilliant propaganda.In 27 BCE, the Roman Senate declared Octavian "Augustus," making him effectively the first emperor. But Augustus Caesar still had three problems.First, he needed to establish his legitimacy and authority. To do so, he promoted the myth that his Julii family were descendants of Aeneas, and thus Rome's very first family.Second, he needed to establish a new Roman cultural identity that emphasized "piety" over "liberty." He promoted Aeneas as the epitome of piety. Third, he was worried about the corrupting influence of Greek culture. Although the Romans had conquered Greece militarily, it seemed that the Greeks had conquered Rome culturally.To solve all three challenges, Augustus Caesar sponsored the writing of "The Aeneid." Vergil's epic imitated and appropriated the Homeric epics to engineer a new Roman soul.

In 44 BCE, an eighteen-year old Octavian arrived in Rome without an army and without political alliances, and seventeen years later he became Rome’s first emperor. How did he do it?In this lecture to his Chinese students Jiang Xueqin explores and explains the birth of the Roman Empire. Julius Caesar saw himself as a man of destiny who would save the Roman Republic, a myth that was met with much skepticism in Rome. After he was assassinated, the Roman people felt regret and guilt for having doubted Caesar, and supported his adopted son Octavian’s quest for vengeance. In the ensuing civil war, as his opponents self-destructed, Octavius slowly and inevitably climbed the pinnacle of power.

In this talk to his Chinese high school students Jiang Xueqin examines the life and times of Julius Caesar. What motivated him? What made him so successful? Why was he assassinated? In 100 BCE, Julius Caesar was born into the "Imperial Republic" of Rome, a contradiction that led to inequality, corruption, and division. He came to believe he was a man of destiny who would restore the unity, stability, and prosperity of the Roman Republic. To do so, he became a myth-maker, and cast himself as the hero of the epic journey that he was spinning for the enraptured Roman audience. His enemies considered him a libertine and a demagogue, and were determined to destroy him.After winning the civil war against Pompey and the Optimates, Julius Caesar enacted a series of legislative reforms that were necessary but which challenged the traditional Roman worldview. In response, some of Julius Caesar's closest friends and associates assassinated him.

In 216 BCE, Hannibal Barca of Carthage defeated Rome at the Battle of Cannae. After three devastating defeats to Hannibal, Rome had lost twenty percent of its adult male population, and one-third of its Senate. The Roman Republic chose to continue fighting, and eventually it triumphed in the Second Punic War.In his lecture to Chinese students Jiang Xueqin explains that it was the three distinguishing characteristics of Roman culture and society -- piety, liberty, and "res publica" -- that would allow Rome to triumph over the Etruscans, the Greeks, and the Carthaginians.