Explorez tous les épisodes du podcast Prediction Markets Report

Prediction markets have created new challenges for companies, and employee trading is one issue compliance departments are facing right now. Steve Brown, Head of Business Development at StarCompliance, discusses how firms are approaching the challenge, including policies, pre-approval, and post-trade monitoring. He also discusses StarCompliance’s partnership with Kalshi and its software solution for monitoring employee prediction market trading.

NextPredict is the world’s largest prediction markets summit. Pierre Lindh, Co-Founder of NextPredict, joins to discuss the summit and its hedge with Kalshi and Susquehanna. He also explains why he believes the insurance industry will be the future battleground for prediction markets and discusses the tension between sports betting and prediction markets.

In this episode, Matt Vegh speaks with Josh Sterling, who represents Kalshi in various matters.

The conversation covers the core legal issues, what could come next, and, of course, elephants, mice, and ducks. If you have been following the litigation, you know why these animals make an appearance. If not, listen to the episode to find out.

Given the rapid developments, it is important to note that this episode was recorded on September 8.

Matt Vegh speaks with Cyrus Chan, Co-Founder and CEO of Saperity. Saperity is a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) helping clients use prediction markets for risk management.

Topics include:

1. Using prediction market data to inform business decisions.

2. Executing trades on prediction markets to hedge risk.

3. How block trades work and provide liquidity beyond what appears on screen.

In this episode, Matt Vegh speaks with Andy Ross, Head of Institutional at Kalshi.

Topics include:

1. Kalshi’s strategy for growing institutional adoption of prediction markets.

2. The value of the data generated by prediction markets.

3. Kalshi’s expansion into perpetuals and how it fits into the company’s broader strategy.

4. The hurdles that remain to greater institutional adoption of prediction markets.

John Conlon joins to discuss 

1. The story behind the first event contract block trade brokered by Greenlight Commodities 

2. Why event contracts offer a unique hedging tool for institutions 

3. What is needed for greater institutional adoption

Daniel Taylor, Wharton Professor, Director of the Wharton Forensic Analytics Lab, and a member of Kalshi's Independent Surveillance Audit Committee discusses:

Marina D'Angelo, Head of Europe at DLT Law, breaks down the European prediction market landscape, including:

• Gibraltar's new prediction market regulatory regime

• MiFID II and ESMA's recent statement

• MiCA's potential role in regulating prediction markets

• Country-specific gambling regulations

• Myths surrounding “offshore licenses”

In this episode, Matt Vegh speaks with Lucas Kohorst, Co-Founder of Adjacent Markets.

Adjacent Markets is building indices and benchmarks for event contracts and is backed by Night Capital, VanEck, UFO Holdings, Maven11 and DCG.

We discuss why indices are especially important for prediction markets, how these products are designed, and where Lucas sees prediction markets heading.

In this episode, John Lothian joins Prediction Markets Report to share his perspective on prediction markets, the CFTC, and perpetuals.

In this episode, Matt Vegh speaks with Carl Kennedy.

Topics include:

• The CFTC's Regulatory Agenda

• Insider Trading Enforcement and Jurisdictional Challenges

• Perpetuals: Futures or Swaps?

In this episode, we cover:

• The current state of prediction market surveillance

• The similarities and differences between prediction markets and traditional financial markets

• The challenges posed by the wide variety of event contracts

• The future of surveillance for prediction markets

In this episode we cover:

• Ritesh’s experience as a prediction market trader and how it led to the founding of Oddpool

• The challenges institutions face in entering the prediction markets space

• What a mature prediction market industry could look like in the future

In this episode, I speak with Alan Galicot, co-founder and CEO of DimeTrades. DimeTrades is a prediction market exchange and is in the process of obtaining a DCM license.

We cover the story behind DimeTrades, the ongoing process of obtaining a DCM license, and the challenges of building an exchange.

In this episode of Prediction Markets Report, I speak with Alex Goldenberg, an expert on national security and emerging threats.

Alex has testified before Congress on national security issues and written several op-eds for The Wall Street Journal. He is also the founder of Silent Index and a fellow at Rutgers Miller Center.

We discuss:

• Novel national security threats presented by prediction markets
• Recent events including the Maduro incident, NPR reporting on congressional staffer trading allegations, and the alleged Netanyahu contract manipulation
• Potential solutions, including specific recommendations for Kalshi and Polymarket

Follow Alex on X @AlexWGoldenberg

Subscribe to his Substack: https://silentindex.substack.com/

In this episode of Prediction Markets Report, I speak with Aggie Rozite founder of MUSE Markets, Fifty One Alpha, and KalshiGirls. We cover: Why she chose to partner with Kalshi over Polymarket. Why bringing more women into prediction markets improves the accuracy of the data produced. How she is building MUSE Markets to help brands harness prediction market type data. Key takeaways from last week’s prediction markets conference in Las Vegas.

In this episode of Prediction Markets Report, I speak with Barrett Morris, head of swaps and derivatives at Moore & Van Allen, to unpack the rapidly evolving legal landscape for prediction markets.

We cover:

• The CFTC Director of Enforcement’s recent speech and what it signals for the enforcement landscape.

• The CFTC’s lawsuits against states and the growing federal preemption battle under the CEA.

• The Third Circuit decision and why it may be the most important ruling yet for prediction markets.

Melinda Roth, a law professor, joins for a discussion on sports event contracts and prediction markets.We cover the evolving regulatory landscape, including the role of the CFTC, the growing wave of litigation, and recent legislative proposals in Congress.We also examine the underlying tensions driving these issues and what may lie ahead for prediction markets.Follow Prediction Markets Report on Linkedin for more content, and reach out at predictionmarketsreport@gmail.com.

This episode of Prediction Markets Report covers several major developments in prediction markets.

The episode analyzes two recent releases from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission: an Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (ANPR) on prediction markets and a new staff advisory.

Follow Prediction Markets Report on LinkedIn for additional analysis, and reach out at predictionmarketsreport@gmail.com.

This episode examines the controversy surrounding prediction market contracts related to Khamenei and Iran.

We analyze the legal framework behind event contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket, and the broader policy debate.

Reach out at predictionmarketsreport@gmail.com or on Linkedin.