Politics in the Rearview Mirror – Détails, épisodes et analyse

Following the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah by Israel two weeks ago, this episode discusses with Dr. Emil Archambault how the use and justification of assassinations by Western states and their allies has changed over time, what the reasons for this changing norm are, what their goal is, and whether they achieve it.

Dr. Emil Archambault's website: https://www.durham.ac.uk/staff/emil-d-archambault/

References and additional sources:

• Archambault et al. (2024). The Killing of Hassan Nasrallah and how the West Legitimized its use of Assassinations. The Conversation, 3.10.2024. https://theconversation.com/the-killing-of-hassan-nasrallah-and-how-the-west-legitimised-its-use-of-assassination-240247 [Last accessed: 11.10.2024].
• President Biden's statement on the killing of Hassan Nasrallah https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/09/28/statement-from-president-joe-biden-on-the-death-of-hassan-nasrallah/ [Last accessed: 11.10.2024].
• President Obama's Speech at the National Defense University 2013 https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2013/05/23/remarks-president-national-defense-university [Last accessed: 11.10.2024]
• Trenta, Luca (2024). The President's Kill List: Assassination and Foreign Policy since 1945. Edinburgh University Press. https://edinburghuniversitypress.com/book-the-president-s-kill-list.html.
• Rigterink, Anouk (2021). The Wane of Command: Evidence of Drone Strikes and Control within Terrorist Organizations. American Political Science Review 115(1), 31-50. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055420000908
• Bergman, Ronon (2019). Rise and Kill First: The Secret History of Israel's Targeted Assassinations. Penguin Random House. https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/209254/rise-and-kill-first-by-ronen-bergman/

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Welcome to the Politics in the Rear View Mirror, the podcast of the School of Government and International Affairs (SGIA) at Durham University. This brief intro gives you an overview if what the podcast will be about. Subscribe to not miss out on the next episode!

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In early June 2025, the government published the Strategic Defence Review (SDR), which was commissioned by Prime Minister Kier Starmer shortly after the July 2024 election. The SDR sets out 62 recommendations to transform the UK Armed Forces from hollowed-out forces into “war-fighting ready” capabilities, with a focus on expanding the nuclear deterrent, cyber and electronic warfare, autonomous systems, and strategic stockpiles. The government has accepted all 62 recommendations and pledged to increase UK defence spending from ~2.3% to 2.5% of GDP by 2027, with an ambition to reach 3%.

Joining me to discuss the SDR, whether it is an appropriate response to the identified rising global threats, what new technologies and domains might have been missed, whether it can even be delivered within the set budget envelope, and if not, what should be prioritised, is Dr. Bleddyn Bowen. Bleddyn is the Associate Professor of Astropolitics and an expert in astropolitics, space warfare, technology and modern warfare, and international relations.

To learn more about Dr. Bowen's research and expertise, visit his website at https://www.durham.ac.uk/staff/bleddyn-e-bowen/

Literature:

- Ministry of Defence 2025. The Strategic Defence Review 2025 - Making Britain Safer: secure at home, strong abroad. Online at: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-strategic-defence-review-2025-making-britain-safer-secure-at-home-strong-abroad [Last accessed: 12 June 2025].Music: The Good News by SHANTI from https://tunetank.com/track/263-the-good-news/

In this episode, we are turning our attention to the war in Ukraine and two recent, bold attacks carried out by Ukraine's Secret Service deep within Russian territory. These aren't just isolated military actions; looking at them through the lens of the bargaining model of war and taking a broader international security perspective suggests that theirthe timing was carefully chosen and their aim goes far beyond the physical damage done to the Russian air force and infrastructure.

Prof. Patrick Kuhn, a Professor of Comparative Politics at Durham University's School of Government and International Affairs (SGIA) and convenor of Analytical Politics, a second year UG module, considers the implications of these attacks through the lens of the bargaining model of war for war in Ukraine and the broader global international security.

To learn more about Prof. Patrick Kuhn's research, visit his website at https://www.durham.ac.uk/staff/p-m-kuhn/

Literature:

- Reiter, Dan 2003. Exploring the Bargaining Model of War. Perspectives on Politics 1(1), 27-43.

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Migration remains one of the most contentious political issues, shaping debates on borders, identity, and economies, including in the UK. Earlier in February this year, the Labour government announced that those arriving irregularly to the UK, even if they are legitimate refugees, will be barred from ever becoming British citizens. Joining the show to discuss the politics behind this announcement, what it aims to achieve, whether it will work, and what alternative approaches Labour could have pursued is Dr. Omar Hammoud-Gallego, an Assistant Professor of Public Policy in the School of Government and International Affairs here at Durham University, where he teaches in the new MSc Public Policy starting this coming academic year.

To learn more about Omar and his research on migration, visit his website: https://www.omarhgallego.com/

Related Literature:

- Gathmann, C., & Garbers, J. 2023. Citizenship and integration. Labour Economics, 82, 102343. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2023.102343 

- Hammoud Gallego, O. 2025. Labour’s latest immigration policy is counterproductive. LSE Blog, online at https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/labours-latest-immigration-policy-is-counterproductive/ [Last accessed: 7th March 2025].

- Krause W, Cohen D, Abou-Chadi T. Does accommodation work? Mainstream party strategies and the success of radical right parties. Political Science Research and Methods. 2023;11(1):172-179. doi:10.1017/psrm.2022.8 

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40 years ago on Monday, 3rd March 1985, the 1984-1985 UK’s miners’ strike ended. The coal miners' strike aimed to prevent the closure of pits that the conservative government deemed “uneconomic”. Many observers regard the miners’ strike as “the most bitter industrial dispute in British history” and with 26 million person-days of work lost, it was the largest by impact since the 1926 General Strike. Joining me, to look back at this major industrial dispute and why it still matters today is Dr. Lewis Mates, an Associate Professor in Political Theory in the School of Government and International Affairs at Durham University.

To learn more about Lewis' research visit his website at https://www.durham.ac.uk/staff/lewis-mates/

Resources mentioned in this episode:

- Sherwood (2022) BBC One Series, for more information on the show see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sherwood_(2022_TV_series). To view the series see https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episodes/p0c724lz/sherwood (only available in the UK).

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Germany is heading to the polls this coming Sunday (23rd February 2025) after the traffic light coalition between the Social Democrats (red), the Liberal Party (yellow), and the Greens (green) collapsed in November last year. In this episode, Dr. Moritz Osnabrügge outlines the main topics of the election campaign, how the campaign compared to 2021, what the latest polls predict, and what potential government coalitions may emerge.

To learn more about Dr. Moritz Osnabrügge's research, visit his website at https://www.durham.ac.uk/staff/moritz-osnabruegge/

Polling and election modeling:

- Reuters (2025): The Latest Polls Ahead of the German Snap Election. Online at: https://www.reuters.com/graphics/GERMANY-ELECTION/POLLS/akveedlravr/ [Last accessed 20th February 2025].

- Zweitstimme.org (2025). Die Wissenschaftliche Vorhersage der Bundestagswahl. Online at: https://zweitstimme.org/ [Last accessed: 20th February 2025].

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This week we are looking at the politics behind one of the Executive Orders from President Trump. The Executive Order “Addressing Egregious Actions of the Republic of South Africa”, was issued on the 7th of February 2025. As justification for this order, President Trump cited South Africa’s Expropriation Act 13, which allows for land to be expropriated with nil compensation in limited circumstances and has been criticized as racially discriminatory by some white Afrikaners, decedents of the European settlers that have ruled South Africa during apartheid and still own a disproportionate share of land and wealth. Dr. Simon Taylor, a Teaching Fellow in International Relations & Security at Durham’s School of Government and International Affairs and an Extraordinary Researcher at North-West University in South Africa, is joining me to discuss the politics behind this Executive Order. Before joining academia, he served as a Senior Foreign Service Officer for the South African Department of International Relations and Co-operation.

To learn more about Simon's research visit his website: https://www.durham.ac.uk/staff/simon-d-taylor/

Literature related to the episode:

- Executive Order "Addressing Egregious Actions of the Republic of South Africa" 7th February 2025. Online at: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/02/addressing-egregious-actions-of-the-republic-of-south-africa/ [Last accessed: 14th February 2024].

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"Tariffs, the most beautiful word in the dictionary!", President Trump exclaimed at one point during the election campaign. In office, he has (so far) announced general import tariffs against Columbia, Mexico, Canada, and the US, only to withdraw them once Columbia, Mexico, and Canada accepted to take back criminal immigrants or strengthen border controls, respectively. In this episode, we discuss with Dr. Michael Nower, an Assistant Professor of Economics at the Durham University Business School, how trade tariffs work, who ultimately pays them, for what purposes they have been used in the past, and how President Trump talked about them and is currently using taxes on trade.

To learn more about Dr. Michael Nower and his research, visit his website: https://www.durham.ac.uk/business/our-people/michael-nower/

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On Wednesday, the 29th of January 2025 Friedrich Merz, the leader of the mainstream conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), broke a longstanding taboo in German politics, the so-called "Brandschutzmauer" (firewall) by passing a non-binding motion to tighten immigration rules with the backing of the Alternative for Germany (AfD), a radical right party, with established links to Neonazi groups. Neither the ruling Social Democrats (SPD) nor the Greens supported the motion. In this episode, Prof. Patrick Kuhn will describe what happened, why this event sent shockwaves through German politics, and what political science research tells us about mainstream parties' likely success of such accommodative strategies.

To learn more about Prof. Patrick Kuhn's research, visit his website at https://www.durham.ac.uk/staff/p-m-kuhn/

Literature referred to:

- Budge, Ian and Farlie D. 1983. Explaining and Predicting Elections: Issue Effects and Party Strategies in Twenty-three Democracies. London/Boston: Allen & Unwin.

- Chou, Winston, Rafaela Dancygier and  Amaney A. Jamal 2021. Competing for Loyalists? How Party Positioning Affects Populist Radical Right Voting. Comparative Political Studies 54(12), 2226–2260.

- Downs Anthony 1957. An Economic Theory of Democracy. New York: Harper.

- Krause Werner, Cohen Dennis, Abou-Chadi Tarik 2023. Does accommodation work? Mainstream party strategies and the success of radical right parties. Political Science Research and Methods 11(1), 172-179.

- Meguid, Bonnie M. 2008. Party Competition between Unequals: Strategies and Electoral Fortunes in Western Europe. Cambridge MA: Cambridge University Press.

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