Join us for a mind-blowing conversation with Louis-Vincent Gave, founding partner and CEO of Gavekal Group. We explore the weakening dollar, China’s new manufacturing supremacy, and why Tesla needs to worry, the next commodity boom, and the unconventional reasons Latin America might be the investment opportunity of a lifetime. Reflecting on our first conversation with Louis in December 2023, paynecm.com/ep143, he predicted a major rally in Chinese stocks right before it happened. Tune in as we uncover major trends happening right now that NO ONE IS TALKING ABOUT when it comes to investing your money.

Louis is the founding partner and CEO of Gavekal Group, a research and financial services firm based in Hong Kong. After graduating from Duke University and studying Mandarin at Nanjing University, Louis joined the French Army, then went on to become a financial analyst at Paribas, first in Paris, then in Hong Kong. In 1999, he launched Gavekal with his father, Charles, and Anatole Kaletsky. Louis is the author of seven books, the latest being Avoiding the Punch: Investing in Uncertain Times.

In this episode of Payne Points of Wealth, Bob, Ryan, Chris & Courtney dive into the critical mistakes that could derail your retirement plans. The recent market volatility caused by recent events like tariff announcements can significantly impact returns if you don’t make smart decisions with your money. We’ll explore three common missteps that investors often make:

Doing Too Much: Reacting impulsively to market drops by pulling out investments can lead to missing subsequent recoveries. We’ll discuss why staying the course with a comfortable asset allocation is often the better strategy. Did you know that from 2005 through 2024, seven of the S&P 500’s 10 best days occurred within two weeks of the 10 worst days? This insight from J.P. Morgan Asset Management highlights the importance of patience.

Losing Sight of the Big Picture: With money in different retirement plans from job changes to holding your savings with different financial institutions, it’s easy to lose track of how your overall portfolio is allocated. We’ll explain how streamlining your investment strategy can be a game-changer for reaching your financial goals.

Forgetting About Fees: Many investors are unaware of the fees they pay on their respective portfolios, mainly because most of these costs can be hidden. We’ll shed light on how choosing low-cost options and being mindful of fees can help maximize your returns. A U.S. Government Accountability Office report from 2021 found that 41% of 401(k) participants don’t know they pay any fees in their plan. We’ll help you become fee-savvy to protect your nest egg.

Tune in to learn how to avoid these pitfalls and secure your financial future!

On episode 198 of the Payne Points of Wealth, Bob, Ryan, Chris, and Courtney break down the recent market sell-off as Trump 2.0 tariffs loom large over the global economy, threatening to trigger a US recession. With business uncertainty at an all-time high, investors are left wondering: Is any portfolio truly safe? Join us as we delve into the impact of trade wars, plunging AI stocks, and geopolitical conflicts on your current investments. We’ll discuss strategies to navigate these turbulent times, mitigate risks, and identify potential safe havens for your money. Whether you’re a seasoned investor planning for retirement or just starting your savings journey, this episode offers valuable insights to help you weather the current tariff storm and make informed decisions in these volatile times.

It’s episode 108, the last episode of the year. And let’s face it, everything’s interesting. Into the end of the year. Markets are extremely volatile. They’re not letting up. We have the most volatility since 2008. Are we going to a recession next year? The debate continues as Labor continues to be strong. The Fed keeps talking tough when it comes to Fed policy.

The big question is what are earnings going to look like next year? We’re going to about positioning your portfolio for the new year ahead. On the tipping point today, we’re going to talk about what financial products would you want in your stocking this Christmas and what financial products you definitely want to do without.

It’s episode 107 of Payne Points of Wealth and economic data continues to come in relatively strong. Meanwhile, inflation is starting to plummet, whether it's oil prices, lumber costs, supply chains easing. We're starting to see some relief within the economy. Is this a good thing? Is this a bad thing or is this just a fake out? As Wall Street continues to tell us the economy is about to fall off a cliff? On the Tipping Point, we're going to talk about your EGO and why it's ruining your financial independence plan.

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

• Mortgage rates are coming down [1:28]
• The Dow Jones did 20% over two months [2:05]
• They keep saying it's a foregone conclusion that we're going to have a recession [2:24]
• The banks are making a huge profit on your cash right now [3:50]
• Investor sentiment is really negative right now [5:45]
• Latin America is hot, the 14% for the year. [6:50]
• The Tipping Points [11:50]
• No one can beat the market. [12:40]
• Hidden Facts of Finance [30:40]

This week on the tipping point: Your ego is ruining your financial independence plan.

And I would say that one of the biggest mistakes investors make when you're trying to plan for your financial independence is you let your ego get in the way. And nothing makes for a worse financial plan than letting your ego dictate a lot of your financial decisions.

There's never been a company or an individual that's been able to consistently outperform the market. But what do people do? They've got to try and prove that because "My ego says I can do it. I'm going to go out there and underperform, even lose money trying."

This week’s hidden facts of finance

• A recent survey shows 84% of companies are planning to hire in 2023.
• Random length lumber for January delivery settled at $423.80 per 1000 board feet on November 29. That's down 63% for the year.
• In 1976, the Eagles released Hotel California selling 32 million copies worldwide, making it the sixth best-selling album of all time.

  See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes

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What's up! It's episode 106 of Payne Points of Wealth and the economy is looking a-okay! We've got the market rebounding into the end of the year. We've got wages going up, unemployment still low, and inflation is coming down. Are those economists and strategists on Wall Street actually, right? Are we going to fall off a cliff? Are we going to recession? Well, we're going to give you our viewpoint on that. We'll also give you our 2 cents on exactly where the economy's going. On the Tipping Point, we've got a special guest, Anthony O'Neill, a debt specialist. He's going to talk about money, his life, and relationship to money. It's a great show! Check it out.

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

• Missed opportunity in the international markets [2:01]
• Spending is still strong [7:18]
• The Tipping Point [9:14]
• Anthony’s background with money [10:19]
• The lack of financial education [15:09]
• Anthony’s mindset when it comes to wealth building [19:31]
• If you're throwing a Hail Mary pass you might be in trouble. [25:37]
• Hidden Facts of Finance [30:40]

It's hard to be an investor

You go back to 2008 when we started Payne Capital Management, we believed it was one of the greatest bull markets in history. We were right on the doorstep of it. Everybody was pretty negative, especially in the US market. Now it's going full circle. Now everybody's positive in the US market and negative in the international markets. They don't see the opportunity. But it's smacking you right in the face. 

Who doesn't know that Taiwan could be invaded by China, who doesn't know that the US dollar is hurting non-US assets, and who doesn't know that there's an energy crisis in Europe? Meanwhile, most of the world doesn't know right now that in the UK, the British stock market, the Footsie, is outperforming the S&P, the DOW, and the Nasdaq. It's wild to think that England has gone positive for the year because when you look at the headlines their political system is a mess and they've got higher inflation than we do. But if we all know it then it's already priced into the market. It's kind of like this, it doesn't look good in Europe. Yeah, we know. But the market's already accounted for that. 

This week on the tipping point: Anthony O’Neal dept specialist

You'll need to check out the episode to hear all the wisdom dropped by Anthony O’Neal but here's a little teaser…

"I believe that if you aim at nothing you'll hit that all the time. I believe that the caliber of your future will be determined by the caliber of goals and decisions that you make today. If you want your future to be bright, if you want your future to be wealthy, solid, fruitful, and joyful then you have to make fruitful and joyful goals and decisions today. It's important. 

When I branched out on my own about two years ago, I said, "Where am I going? What do I want to accomplish?" My very first thought is I want to be intentional, I want to be impactful, and I want to be influential. Those three things will then produce income. So that's the main thing, are my goals intentional? Are my goals, if I accomplish them, will they be impactful to others? Will it be influential? And if the answer is yes to all three of those, then income will come. You can't anywhere without goals or without a vision. Really more so vision than goals when you think about it. Because goals mean that once you hit that goal, that comes to a stop. So I love goals but also, personally, I want a vision that is ongoing that is never going to stop. I'm going to keep going as long as I'm living on this earth."

This week’s hidden facts of finance

• Apple has outperformed its peers by a wide margin this year. Apple is now worth more than Microsoft and META put together combined.
• There have been around 33,000 tech layoffs since the beginning of November. However, the economy generated something like 261,000 jobs in October and 200,000 in November. Simple math, more jobs are being created than are being lost. This doesn't sound very recessionary.
• 10,000 baby boomers reach age 65 every day according to the US Census Bureau. And by 2030, all baby boomers will be at least 65. The Boomer labor force has been declining by 2.2 million on average each year since 2010 or about 5,900 people daily are leaving the workforce. We think this is a problem.
• The US just passed 1 trillion music streams this year. The first time that milestone had been reached in a single year. That's about 960,000 years of streaming music so far in 2022.

Resources & People Mentioned

Anthony O’Neal debt specialist

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What's up! It's episode 105 of Payne Points of Wealth and the economy continues to chug along. We had retail spending up even with record-high inflation. We're starting to see on the ground floor inflation coming down, and unemployment is still strong, yet every economist and strategist still say we're going to fall off a cliff. We're going to address that today. We've seen a huge rally in the global markets over the course of the last couple of weeks, specifically internationally. Should you be playing that in your portfolio? Well, we're gonna break it down for you. Check it out. 

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

• Are we going to see a healthy end-of-the-year rally? [1:04]
• The market is smarter than everybody! [4:52]
• The ‘Yeah…but’ market [7:29]
• The Tipping Point [11:59]
• Paying down debt [14:55]
• Do you readjust your portfolio? [16:04]
• Hidden Facts of Finance [18:58]

Emerging markets are trending!

Right now we're talking about how we don't know what's going to happen next, we don't know what's going on. But one thing I do know is what we don't expect is what's going to happen. We've seen this with what I call the pandemic hangover trade. We've seen disruptive technology, and it's still getting slaughtered here, even as markets are recovering, and I think one of the most obvious trends in the world is emerging markets. You look at the emerging markets right now, they've been growing faster than the US in terms of profits growth since like 1995, yet their stock market is in the same place it was in 2007. So there are a lot of places you can be allocating your capital right now that are dirt cheap that are poised to rise in the future.

This week on the tipping point: When to take action and when not to

When it comes to financial planning, sometimes it's good to take action, but other times it's better to maybe just hold back and let things play out. So let's talk about when you should be taking action and when you should not take action when it comes to your financial independence plan.

A point of confusion, when it comes to action or no action, is eliminating debt. It's actually a trickier conversation than it used to be because at the beginning of this year your mortgage would typically be your largest debt and you were getting a 2-3% rate depending on how long you're going out. Now you're paying like 6-7% and it really becomes a portfolio decision and with rates so much higher right now, I would say unless you're locked into a lower rate it might be better to start paying off debt and as opposed to mortgaging, maybe just paying out right if you have cash because that's a real hard spread to get over the long term if you're starting to borrow at like 6-7%. 

Another big

This week’s hidden facts of finance

• India will have the highest growth rate of all countries over the next 10 years, there are also opportunities in parts of the Middle East, and North Africa, although capital markets in these places are still very early in development, you gotta have some money around the world.
• What do FTX, Vroom, Draft Kings, and Coinbase all have in common besides the fact they're down 62 to 98% so far this year? They all spent $6.5 million per 30 seconds for Super Bowl ads just less than a year ago.
• Since the inception date of 8/1/2001 CNBC's Jim Cramer's Action Alerts Plus portfolio returned a cumulative 210%. Compare that to the S&P 500's 398%, nearly 50% better.

Resources & People Mentioned

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What's up! It's episode 103 of Payne Points of Wealth and the FED just doesn't want us to have a good time. J Powell, again, talking extremely hawkish in its comments as we're recording this. However, we've got a hot job market, unemployment is still staying extremely low, close to a 50-year low. We just keep adding jobs and wages continue to go up as this economy is still on solid footing. Should we be rooting for a bad economy or rooting for a good economy? Well, we're going to give you our view. On the Tipping Point, we're going to talk about end-of-the-year tax and financial moves you can make to make sure you're on solid footing. 

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

• The little boy who cries wolf [1:10]
• Why stock equities are the ultimate hedge against inflation [4:41]
• Time in the market not timing the market [7:23]
• The Tipping Point [11:30]
• Hidden Facts of Finance [30:31]

Getting paid to wait

It's time in the markets, not timing the market. Let's just take the Federal Reserve's conference call the other day, in the course of a half hour the market went up 400 points from what was perceived as dovish comments then closed 500 points down. That's virtually a thousand-point swing, a thousand points in a period of two hours! You're gonna invest in that mess? The whole idea is that this short-term volatility tells you nothing. Trying to game it or time it is so futile, it's ridiculous. Meanwhile, when you have a diversified portfolio, you're making money every day. Your dividends accrue, your interest is accrued, you earn it, it's yours, and you get paid to wait! 

This week on the tipping point: Pro Tips for Tax Optimization 

It's the end of the year. It's coming up on tax time so this is the time to really look at your portfolio. We thought it would be a good time to talk about some of the pro moves that we use with our clients at our boutique firm Payne Capital Management, some of the strategies we use at the end of the year that our listeners can apply to their portfolio to optimize their portfolio for their financial independence. 

One of the things that we like to do towards the end of the year, especially with a volatile year as we've had, are tax swaps. Over time investments will have a lot of embedded unrealized capital gains so whenever we can do some tax loss harvesting it saves folks a lot of money on the back end. This may be the biggest year ever for tax loss harvesting. 

A few other tax strategies that are great at the end of the year that no one looks at are Roth conversions, charitable contributions from retirement accounts, and making sure that you're maxing out your retirement plan contribution.

This week’s hidden facts of finance

• Alibaba holding group, a data-driven colossus in retail, logistics, lending, and more has generated 89 billion in free cash flow over the past five years. The equivalent in the US would be Amazon which has only generated 75 billion over the last five years. Yet, its shares are lower than their debut price back in 2014. Alibaba's market value of $168 billion is just a sliver of Amazon's trillion dollars. There might be some opportunity in China
• Since March gold has slid 18.3%, far worse than global stocks which are only down 8%. Gold isn't a hedge, not against inflation, stock weakness, or even war. It's a commodity.
• Americans average financial assets amounted to 155,000 back in 2008. At the end of 2021 just last year, assets climbed to $349,000 on average, an increase of 125%. It's not only Americans who can look back on a long decade of rich monetary blessings, even around the world people are getting richer.
• 56 years after its original release the Beetles Revolver, which is one of the greatest albums of all time, could be at #1 on the Billboard 200 album charts again thanks to the new stereo remix of the album. 

Resources & People Mentioned

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What's up! It's episode 102 of Payne Points of Wealth and tech is dead! Our prophecy has come true. We've warned you about tech for a long time. Meanwhile, markets are rallying hard here and the economy is actually growing despite what all those economists have been telling you. Is this just a big fake-out? Is this a bear market rally? Are we going into a big recession next year? We're going to give you our 2¢ on that today. We're going to tell you exactly how to play all the market moves and how to look at the economy right now correctly. We're also going to talk about financial planning, physical training, and what they have in common. We've got a great show. Check it out!

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

• Economists are so sus! [1:06]
• Is the S&P overweighted in tech? [4:01]
• You make the most $$ in a bear market [7:12]
• The Tipping Point [12:08]
• There is no wisdom on the internet [13:11]
• Help to do the right thing when it feels wrong [16:03]
• Hidden Facts of Finance [21:52]

Are you missing a rally because you’re overweight in mega-cap tech stocks?

If you look at the S&P 500, it accounts for something like 25% but the entire weighting is only in six or seven stocks. That's the problem, the S&P is so grossly overweight in tech that you're not benefiting from this rally. What blew our minds looking at the numbers this past week is that old-school boring value stocks like JP Morgan, Coca-Cola, and Pepsi are only down 5%, but tech growth stocks are down 30%. That's a 25% spread! 

This tells you that right now it's not about being in or out of the market, it's about having the right portfolio. If you're diversified you're not down that much this year and that's the whole point. You have to spread your risk out. The overall market is telling us that some parts of the economy aren't doing great like tech, but some parts of the economy are doing really, really well. It's like we are experiencing rolling recessions, not an all-or-none proposition.

This week on the tipping point: Financial Fitness Trainers

There are a lot of principles that we can apply from the fitness world to your retirement or financial independence plan. What we've learned in our boutique firm, Payne Capital Management, is that our role as financial advisors is a lot like being a personal financial trainer.

The similarities are remarkable. You definitely work out better when you have a personal trainer. You get in shape faster and you have less injury because they get you to focus on every part of your body. They don't limit you to what you would limit yourself to. That's what happens when you're investing. "Well, I'm not gonna invest in that area because I lost money there once." or "I'm a brave investor, I'm going to roll the dice and go a hundred percent in crypto or the arc fund." You make a lot of mistakes because you don't know what you don't know. 

This week’s hidden facts of finance

• John Deere and Company has 50 autonomous tractors in its global testing fleet but intends to ramp up commercial production next year.
• Money funds are now paying a lot more than bank savings accounts, which yield an average of 1.09% according to bankrate.com. Fidelity's tax-exempt money market fund may be the best bet if you're in a high tax bracket, it pays 1.75%, which is the equivalent of getting 3.43% if you're in a high tax bracket. That's not bad for money just sitting in cash.
• Renewable energy could account for 60% of power generation in Western Europe and 35% in the US by the year 2030. Up from 35% and 23% today, respectively. Ironically, high fossil fuel prices are the biggest reason that energy producers have the ability to fund the energy transition to cleaner alternatives.
• Schwab generated 132 million off money market funds in the third quarter up from 29 million a year ago when the company had to issue waivers to compensate for ultra-low money market yields. It's incredible how much yields have gone up in the last couple of months.

Resources & People Mentioned

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What's up! It's episode 101 of Payne Points of Wealth and earning season is not so bad. Bank earnings looking relatively strong. Everything's still in the backdrop of what is the FED going to do. Are they going to keep raising interest rates? Are they going to pause? Are they going to start lowering interest rates? Nobody really knows. Meanwhile, the market's like a rollercoaster ride up one day and down the next. It can't really find any footing and uncertainty is high. Russia is still in invasion of Ukraine. Sounds like Xi Jinping is the ultimate ruler forever of China. It's a crazy world. We're going to give you our thoughts on exactly what's going on in the economy, what's going on in the stock market, the ying and yangs, everyday moves, and how to play it. On the Tipping Point today we're going to talk about how every investor on Wall Street gets treated the same. No matter how much money you have, it's bad. We're going to explain why. Check it out.

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

• What’s going on in the mind of J. Powell? [1:24]
• Bad is good and good is bad [4:21]
• You gotta be in to win [8:22]
• The Tipping Point [12:57]
• The dirty secret of our industry [14:19]
• The sexiest investments [17:19]
• Hidden Facts of Finance [22:35]

Nobody can predict what's unknowable

We're at a point in the market where good news is bad news and bad news is good news and then there's a little mixed bag of both. You have a GDP number coming out this week and some economists say it may be very, very strong. They've been a little weaker than they were last quarter, but they're still positive. Then you get these rip-your-face-off rallies from companies when they come in with really decent earnings. Lamb research came in the other day with decent earnings, really good earnings stock going from 300 to 370 in one week. The same thing happened with Lockheed Martin. 

The problem with trying to time the market is that you can get on the sidelines and wait for the good news, but the good news happens, you can't get back in. So it's one of these cases where we're in a corrective phase of the market and it's going to stay a corrective phase until the FED stops. That may very well be happening right now but nobody can predict what's unknowable. 

This week on the tipping point: Wall Street treats every investor the same

We've been looking at a lot of cases over the course of the last couple weeks at our boutique firm, Payne Capital Management, and we see every strategy under the sun. As we analyze portfolios, we look at all the underlying investments and the thing that blows my mind is it doesn't matter if you have $10 million or $10,000 Wall Street treats you the same. They sell you the same high-cost tax-inefficient products. It doesn't even matter how much money you have. It's kind of criminal and it's important as you build your net worth to make sure you're not constantly being treated like a retail investor.

It all comes down to the fiduciary rule. When President Obama proposed the fiduciary rule for the financial services industry, it was amazing. Banks, Wall Street firms, and insurance companies all fought it because they don't want to act in the investor's best interest, they wanna act in a shareholder's best interest. If you're ever going to invest with a wirehouse or a bank and insurance company, it's better to buy their stock because they're working in the best interest of the shareholder. 

This week’s hidden facts of finance

• Elon Musk's purchase of Twitter for $54.20 a share is at a price that is double the current valuation of Twitter's main rivals Meta and Snap. In line with Meta and Snap Musk should be paying more like $24 per share for Twitter. No wonder why he fought so hard to get out of this deal.
• The current rise in mortgage rates has real consequences. The $1,900 a month payment on a $450,000 home with a 30-year mortgage at 3% can only support now a $300,000 loan at six and a half percent interest rates.
• The only two bands that have surpassed the $2 billion sales mark for concert ticket sales in their history are the Rolling Stones and U2.
• Stock prices aren't great at predicting recessions. The market provided a 1 month advance notice for the 2001 recession. It was 3 months late in its warning of the 1973 recession and 8 months late in the 2008 recession. False warnings came in 1962, 1977, and 1987. Sounds like the market's not really great at predicting economic downfall.

Resources & People Mentioned

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What's up? It's episode 100 of Payne Points of Wealth. It's hard to believe it's been two years already! We've got unemployment still at the lowest levels in 50 years. We've got wages going up, and we've got an employment market that just won't cool off. What's the FED going to do? Will they finally pivot or are they ready to take this economy off a cliff? Are we going to a deep recession depression? We're going to give you our viewpoint on exactly how to play the economy, play the strong dollar, play the higher interest rates, play the conflict in Russia. There are so many issues, I can't name them all. On the Tipping Point we're going to talk about financial planning red flags. You're on your path to financial independence so what red flags do you need to avoid at all costs to make sure you stay on your path to reach your goals? 

>>>>>>>>>>>>>.PLAYER GOES HERE

What's up? It's episode 99 of Payne Points of Wealth and there is no good news. Inflation is not coming down as quickly as expected. The FED continues to talk tough and interest rates are skyrocketing. There is a threat of nuclear war in Eastern Europe. As usual, we're going to break it down for you today and talk about our views on where everything is going. Are we going to have this huge recession that we're hearing about week after week? On the Tipping Point today we're going to talk about roulette, chess, and poker and what they have to do with your financial life. Go have a listen!

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

• If it weren’t for mistakes the FED wouldn’t make any decisions [1:03]
• Only things going up are yields and inflation [3:51]
• Having a Revenge of the Nerds portfolio [6:55]
• The Tipping Point [10:40]
• To pay taxes or not to pay? [13:55]
• Playing stock picking roulette [17:27]
• Hidden Facts of Finance [20:58]

Finally seeing real, positive, yields!

The only thing going up this year has been inflation and short-term money market yields. As financial advisors and planners, we're in a position where we have portfolios that we can actually sink our teeth into. 

You have forward earnings at about 16 times, which means stocks are valued where they are in the average PE ratio. You have bond yields that are significant, where there’s a decent return in our intermediate bond portfolio and there's great opportunity. We were more concerned in January when we saw interest rates at zero than we are today. Now we know we can generate the income, generate the total return, that we need to help all of our clients overcome unexpected inflation and taxes to achieve their financial goals.

We don't wanna have a portfolio that's cool. We want to have a portfolio that's like the revenge of the nerds, and that is the kind of market we have now! Yes, having bonds that come due, how boring. I love it! Having dividend stocks that increase their dividend every year. How boring. I love it! That's where we have to be. The key is you have to take action. If you have losses, do some tax swaps because you want to put money in the loss bank. We are taught as children to put money in the piggy bank, put some money in the loss bank, there will be gains in the future.

This week on the tipping point: Chess, poker, or roulette?

Today we compare some different strategies that we see deployed in the financial world to chess, poker, and roulette. Rollette is basically luck and how the dice roll. If it's chess, it's a real strategy. And poker we'd say is both a little bit of luck and a little bit of strategy. 

The first strategy that we see deployed a lot in our industry is market timing. Another strategy that we see is deciding how much money to convert from an IRA to a Roth IRA where the money is tax-free for the rest of your life. The other one that comes up, especially when we're doing our annual reviews, is deciding on when to retire. What's the date in the future that you're going to definitively say, okay, I'm done, I'm going to live off my portfolio. The last strategy we compare is going to be picking stocks. Which of these strategies is comparable to which game? Check out the episode to find out!

This week’s hidden facts of finance

• At some point in late 2022, the 8 billionth human being will enter the world ushering in a new milestone for humanity. In just 48 years, the world population has doubled in size, jumping from 4 to 8 billion people.
• 12% of bosses surveyed by Microsoft say workers are just as productive working remotely compared to 87% of workers who argue they are more productive. Sounds like bosses want you back in the office.
• The original handwritten lyrics for David Bowie's Starman have been sold to an unidentified Aussie bidder at auction for $224,000. That's a lot of money for a bunch of lyrics written on a piece of paper. 

Resources & People Mentioned

See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes

Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris

• http://PayneCM.com 
• Follow on Twitter
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What's up? It's episode 98 of Payne Points of Wealth and it's officially apocalypse now! The FED will not relent with interest rates. They're going to be more hawkish than ever. It seems like bad news comes on the installment plan, Putin is looking to double down on his war in Ukraine. Is this the end? Is everything going to fall off a cliff? We're going to give you our view today, we're going to tell you exactly what we think you should be doing right now with your money to make sure that you're in the best position given so much uncertainty. You, awesome podcast listeners, have been asking a lot of questions so on the Tipping Point we are going to answer some of those. You can't miss episode 98. 

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

• The stock market isn’t a video game [1:08]
• Two things you can never discount [4:18]
• Being properly prepared for a difficult year [8:12]
• The Tipping Point [10:20]
• Having ETFs in a taxable account [11:31]
• The problem with a total market ETF [15:03]
• Hidden Facts of Finance [18:37]

The death of the consumer is greatly exaggerated

There are two things that get discounted way too much when it comes to being an investor. 

First is American business. Even this year, as we've seen supply chains that are a mess, inflation's been a mess but companies have been able to navigate it relatively well. We've seen more surprises in the positive, not the negative, when it comes to things like earnings. 

The second thing that you can't discount is the American's ability to spend. I don't care what anybody says, if you look at retail sales last month, even with 8% inflation, retail sales were up. People were still spending and not just on necessities. They were going to restaurants, they were buying clothes. The bottom line is the death of the consumer is always greatly exaggerated.

This week on the tipping point: Listener Q&A

Our industry tends to come with plenty of cookie-cutter advice so we get a lot of questions because our expertise lies in the planning component of managing wealth. At PCM we focus on customized financial planning. Well, we have a new place where you can submit your questions and we'll answer them here right on the show. Head over to bebullish.com and ask us anything you'd like to hear us talk about on the show.

Today we are answering two questions that have to do with ETFs. The first is from John asking if we recommend ETFs or exchange-traded funds with an expense of 0.25% or even 0.39%? The second question is from Brian who asks if the S&P is so highly weighted with FANG stocks, what's another good total market ETF to invest in during a period of rising rates? Listen now to hear our answers to these great questions!

This week’s hidden facts of finance

• Since 1926 the S&P 500 was positive 71 of those 96 years. On a probability basis, the market goes up 74% of the time. That's pretty good odds.
• According to bank rate.com, the national average yield on a savings account is a poultry 0.13%. Ouch. Meanwhile, one-year treasury bond pays over 4%.
• Pink Floyd's, The Dark Side Of The Moon, hit number one on the Billboard Album Chart for exactly one week in 1973. It has since gone on to sell 45 million copies and has spent 960 weeks on the charts.

Resources & People Mentioned

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• http://PayneCM.com 
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🎙️ Podcast Episode 197: Interview with Adam Johnson - Navigating Today’s Investment Landscape 🎙️

Join us for an insightful conversation with Adam Johnson, the founder and author of BullseyeBrief.com, a weekly investment letter that delves into American Ingenuity through actionable stock picks.

With a diverse background that includes anchoring several daily programs on Bloomberg Television and interviewing top CEOs, heads of state, and prominent investors, Adam brings a wealth of experience to the table. Over his three-decade career on Wall Street, he has traded stocks, options, and oil for ING Asset Management, Louis Dreyfus, and Merrill Lynch. A Princeton graduate with a degree in economics, Adam is well-equipped to provide deep insights into the current macro-economic environment.

In this episode, we discuss the latest trends in oil prices and tackle the pressing question: "Are Artificial intelligence stocks like Nvidia poised to go higher or lower?” Don't miss this opportunity to gain valuable perspectives from a seasoned expert in the investment world.

Tune in for this compelling discussion that will help you navigate the complexities of today's financial markets! 📈💡

What's up! It's episode 97 of Payne Points of Wealth and markets are melting down. The fear is real, but could this fear go from fear to FOMO? We're going to discuss exactly what's going on. As we're recording this FedEx saw its stock drop 20%, and the CEO thinks that the world is going into a global recession. We might have a different point of view. We'll talk about that. On the Tipping Point today, we're going to talk about some of the most significant strategy mistakes that Wall Street loves to push on you that you should avoid at all costs to make sure you stay on your path to financial independence.

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

• What side of the rip of your face rally will you be on? [1:25]
• Is it light at the end of the tunnel or a train? [3:52]
• Time to load up on the municipal bond market [8:15]
• The Tipping Point [11:21]
• Are you taking actions that you'll regret forever? [14:09]
• Hidden Facts of Finance [18:53]

Betting on a sure thing?

Is it time to load up on the municipal bond market? The way these governments keep spending money on state, local, and federal levels it's only a matter of time before they try to jack up our tax rates again. We've got to look at the advantages of tax-free income. 

First of all, you want to be certain that you have a portfolio with permits and definitions. We want to know what we're making and when our money comes due. But when you look at the equivalent yield of a tax-free bond right now, in some cases, depending on your state income tax, you're getting anywhere from a 5 - 8% return. How much return do you need to achieve all your lifetime goals? If you can do it with more certainty, why not? 

This week on the tipping point: Strategy mistakes

During times when it's very volatile and uncertain in the markets, like right now, there are a lot of strategies that Wall Street loves to sell you. We know from experience that they just don't work. We can't time the market and a lot of people tend to project the future based on their most recent experience. When there are all-time record highs, like the markets just had this past January, nobody wants to panic out. You only want to panic or time the market when the market's are down and you feel like it will only continue to get worse. 

The problem is you end up taking actions that you'll regret forever. You wouldn't believe how many folks out there have liquidated their portfolio and gone into something like an annuity. We've been analyzing more annuities the past three months than ever. It's kind of like going back into the arms of an ex, it feels comfortable, it feels good, but the reality is you broke up for a reason. You're not going to get what you're looking for from the relationship!

This week’s hidden facts of finance

• Wedbush Securities estimates that there are now a billion iPhones worldwide, 240 million of which are at least 3-1/2 years old. This may explain why Apple earnings are expected to continue creeping higher by single-digit percentages in the years ahead.
• We think of meme stocks as something unique, but the 1960s were called the Go-go 60s' for a reason. The Nifty 50, the glamor stocks, the concept stocks, the conglomerates, and the gunslinger fund managers who touted them were rock stars. When the Nifty 50 expired in the early 70s' they had sky-high valuations that rival anything we've seen today with Xerox trading at 49 times forward earnings, Avon at 65 times forward earnings, and Polaroid at 90 times forward earnings. History may not repeat, but markets are made up of people and they certainly do.
• Dividends have accounted for 40% of stock market returns since 1930 and 54% during decades when inflation has been high like today. When inflation has been high, the stocks that have increased their dividends the most have outperformed the overall market. Dividend payments help make the stock market returns less volatile.
• The average German household is paying nearly 13 times more for power than in January of 2020, or about $38,000 versus $3000. Wow. That's a huge jump in energy prices.

Resources & People Mentioned

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What's up! It's episode 96 of Payne Points of Wealth! Fool me once J. Powell, shame on me, fool me twice, shame on you. The FED continues to talk tough when it comes to raising interest rates to combat inflation. Yet only a year ago, they said there was no reason to raise interest rates at all. Should you trust the FED? Is anything they're saying right now making sense? Should you believe it? Are we going into recession? Is inflation actually coming down? Well, we're gonna give you our viewpoint on what we think is happening right now in the economy, and what you need to be doing with your portfolio. We're also going to talk about unhealthy financial foods. The financial services industry loves to sell you lots of products that you probably don't need in your portfolio. We're gonna break that down for you. Check it out.

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

• No one can know what’s unknowable [1:14]
• Energy’s impact on inflation [4:49]
• A huge % of your return comes from dividends [7:02]
• The Tipping Point [11:33]
• Added sugar [14:51]
• Trans fats [17:23]
• Personal trainer vs DIY [19:44]
• Hidden Facts of Finance [21:35]

Negativity = Opportunity

One thing we know for sure is that there's extreme pessimism out there right now. The negativity is so thick you can cut it with a knife. More than one client called this week and said Michael Burry, that guy from The Big Short, he's negative now, he's bearish and calling for a big bubble burst. Well, we get these guys through every cycle. Every cycle you have somebody who made a correct call or a lucky guess and they never have a second one. Better to be right once than never? We used to have magazine covers that would tell us how things are going. Back in the 70s' Businessweek was famous for its headline, The Death of Equities. They wrote an article in 1979 saying stocks would never go up again. That was the biggest bottom of Bob's career and the best buying opportunity he's ever seen in his life. You have the same type of situation right now. 

This week on the tipping point: Unhealthy Financial Food

In the financial world, there's a lot of fluff or, products and services you probably want to avoid at all costs. So I thought we could use the analogy of unhealthy financial food and talk about how there are unhealthy financial products that our listeners need to avoid at all costs. 

Talk about empty calories, I was doing a proposal for a client and he brought a proposal that he'd received from one of the big banks. The proposal was 75 pages long. After going through it, I could only find about three pages worth of good information. The rest was just legalese and a bunch of what we call industry jargon.

What you see in the financial services industry are these fancy products that add on all these bells and whistles. We know that a lot of annuities out there are guilty of this. A lot of these structured products are where you only get limited downside but you get X amount of the upside. They sound sexy. They sound like really good common sense products but when you start looking under the hood at how they work, you're not getting a good deal. It's actually bad for your financial life. 

This week’s hidden facts of finance

• Annual global sales of industrial robots and factory automation are forecasted to more than double by 2027.
• Nielsen disclosed that US streaming in July passed cable viewership for the first time ever with 34.8 of total viewing hours versus 34.4% for cable and 21.6% for broadcast TV. Broadcast TV is clearly out.
• Nielsen disclosed that US streaming in July passed cable viewership for the first time ever with 34.8 of total viewing hours versus 34.4% for cable and 21.6% for broadcast TV. Broadcast TV is clear!
• While equities are still holding up relative to bonds, there have been no monthly flows into stocks over the past half year. Bonds hate inflation, equities hate recession and risk sentiment right now is appalling.

Resources & People Mentioned

• Michael Burry article
• Death of Equities

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What's up! It's episode 95 of Payne Points of Wealth and FED chairman J. Powell has ruined everything! Just two weeks ago before recording this podcast, J Powell came out and basically said that the FED was going to continue to be hawkish with their monetary policy, and markets sold off precipitously. Is this the end? Is the punch bowl going away? Is the economy ruined? Well, we're going to talk about that on our podcast today, we're going to give you our viewpoint. And we're going to talk about critical questions you need to ask yourself if you're putting together your financial independence plan.

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

• How a great portfolio is like a great rental property? [2:22]
• Bulls or bears…it depends on the wind [4:43]
• Don’t double down on tech [6:58]
• The Tipping Point [11:56]
• Do people really spend less when they retire? [13:08]
• How will you fill the income gap? [15:43]
• Do you know what you own and how are your finances organized? [19:11]
• Hidden Facts of Finance [23:07]

Keep your portfolio because the rents are going up!

That eight-minute speech that J Powell gave certainly sent our clients into a tailspin. I was talking to a client last week and he asked if this was time to sell out of his portfolio. Of course not! The value of your house probably went down 10-15% in the last few months, are you selling that? Of course, the answer's no. 

Owning a great portfolio is a lot like owning a rental property. With the dividends and interest, it pays you're going to collect rent until the market goes back up. Under our e-money portal, you can even pull in the value of your real estate from Zillow, so it's updated in real-time. 

One client I spoke with has a lot of rental properties. He said that they were at all-time record highs and now they're down like 15% in some cases. I said well, why don't you panic out and sell? He said, why would I do that? I'm still collecting my rent and guess what I'm going to do next year? Raise it. 

That's kind of how it works with the stock market. Stocks pay dividends. We just had global dividends hit an all-time record high at $545 billion. Think about that. We have increased dividends to the highest level ever and they're going to go up again next year! 

This week on the tipping point: Critical questions

We thought today we could talk about certain questions that you really want to ask yourself to make sure that you're on track to what we call that proverbial financial independence. We covered some critical questions that everyone needs to answer to make sure that they're on their path. Will you really spend less in retirement? SPOILER ALERT...Probably not! Where will your income come from and how will you get it? Do you know what you own and more importantly WHY you own it? How are your finances organized? Can you generate enough returns that it keeps abreast of inflation? If you haven’t asked yourself these questions in a while (or ever) then this is an episode you will want to listen to! Go check it out ASAP!

This week’s hidden facts of finance

• Small investors matter for Tesla. About 46% of shares available for trading are held by non-institutional investors. The comparable number for Google is only 15%. Small investors basically drive that stock.
• American airlines group is planning to buy up to 20 supersonic jets to speed up air travel. Boom Supersonic is developing an airplane called Overture, which is being designed to carry 65 to 80 passengers. American Airlines said that supersonic flights from Los Angeles to Honolulu would take only three hours or as little as half the time of a standard jet.
• A high-tech portrait of Warren Buffet topped $75,000 in bidding. It shows a grid of letters over an image of the investor that lights up to spell out several of his famous quotes. Proceeds from the eBay auction, which concluded on Buffet's 92nd birthday, will go to one of his favorite charities Girls Inc. of Omaha.
• HBO's House of Dragons, the prequel of Game of Thrones racked up 10 million viewers on its debut, a record for the network. Demand was so great that thousands of US online viewers experienced crashes.

Resources & People Mentioned

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What's up! It's episode 94 of Payne Points of Wealth and we have a special and very different episode for you today. We have a good friend Rich Antoniello, on the podcast. He's the former CEO and founder of Complex Media, a company that recently merged with BuzzFeed. Rich talks about the entrepreneurship journey, how he came from humble beginnings back in Brooklyn, and how that impacted his view of finances. He also talks about the state of the financial services industry in general. It's a great interview, Rich is a really charismatic guy, and he's got a pretty cool take on things. We think you're going like it.

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

• Rich roots from humble beginnings [1:04]
• Having the guts to leave the guiled cage [8:36]
• The psychology of money [15:04]
• Sold not bought [25:00]
• What is the 3.0 version of what the market has become? [32:24]
• The impact of music [42:51]

What was it like for Rich growing up in Brooklyn?

Rich says it's not just the location, but you have to think about the cultural and familial side. Both of his parents were immigrants. His mom was one of 9 and his dad was one of 8. So literally big families, both Depression kids, and education wasn’t big on either side. Then you layer on the neighborhood. It's a beautiful place to live if you want to grow up around neighbors and neighborhoods where it's basically extended family. The trade-off was that you lived a very small life because your exposure was so narrow. There were a lot of cops, a lot of firemen, and union jobs. His dad was a UPS delivery guy. The aperture of what you're knowledgeable about and what you see is limited. There were very few executives and very few financial guys. Rich's exposure to business was trying read a Wall Street Journal which was not something readily available.

But he thinks it was a great thing in that he learned foundational values. You couldn't operate within that world in any other way. These were good people, but the view of ambition and even understanding what a floor in a ceiling would be like from a career perspective was just nowhere. And he couldn't Google it back then either. The library had a whole bunch of old biographies. It was great to be able to go read about Rockefeller, but it wasn't exactly what Rich would call inspirational from the standpoint of understanding what a blueprint or a track would be from a realistic perspective for somebody like him. 

Rich’s mind on money

Obviously, Rich's financial circumstances have changed drastically from his humble roots in Brooklyn. But how has that changed his perception of money and how is it the same just because of his upbringing? The way we're brought up does color the way that we view our financial situation, financial security, and a lot of the decisions we make around money. 

Rich explains how his perception has changed entirely but his behaviors have not come all the way along. He's massively aggressive and understands so much more and can see the things, but there's that little voice in the back of his head that always pulls him back from being as aggressive at the edge as he'd like to be. Check out the episode to hear him go deeper on this.

Where is finance fundamentals 101

Rich thinks the lack of foundational, honest, educational, finance 101 is unbelievable. People don't like talking about it, but when somebody tries to sell them something they feel more comfortable going to Google than they do talking to somebody. They are looking for it, but nobody is offering that.

We should all have had this type of education foundationally. Ideally, it happens at a family level, but most families don't have it to give. Rich says his own father couldn't help him think about the way his life has unfolded. That's not a knock on him, he just had no exposure, education, or the wherewithal to even think about any of those things.

Why don't the leading platforms, especially the leading media platforms, provide that baseline level of understanding so that when you do talk about meme stocks and short squeezes you're not getting caught up in the hoopla but you're educated enough to look at that and fundamentally understand? 

Resources & People Mentioned

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What’s up! This is episode 93 of Payne Points of Wealth and we've heard a lot about recession, but it seems like the economy is more resilient—probably the correct R word to be using right now—as we've seen a labor market that is the hottest it’s been in 50 years. We've never seen a recession when unemployment was going down and that's what we are seeing today, employment going down. We're seeing inflation numbers come down, as we’ve told you they would. So what does it mean for the rest of the year? Are we going to get this recession? Are we still in an economic boom? What do you make of it? On the Tipping Point, we're going to talk about how your financial independence plan is like putting together a jigsaw puzzle. We're going to help you frame it, visualize it, and show you how to get financially independent as soon as possible. Check it out!

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

• The surprises always come in the positive [2:42]
• This time next year [6:06]
• History teaches us everything [9:01]
• The Tipping Point [12:26]
• Begin with the end in mind [13:50]
• Not good or bad…just appropriate [17:11]
• Hidden Facts of Finance [21:06]

The Market is always right!

Companies are profitable, 77% of companies reported better than expected profits. Even though we had a negative GDP number, we have an economy that's growing, slowing, but still growing. Inflation is still raging, but we had two good inflation numbers this week that brought inflation down from last month's readings. Maybe we have peak inflation. Maybe we have peak hawkishness on the part of the Federal Reserve and it's time to start thinking about all the positive news that's going to be coming out going forward. 

That's where markets trade, right? It's that gap between what the expectations are and what reality ends up being. That's what we saw this last week, expectations that inflation was going to be higher. Now, reality tells you that it's not as bad as you think. It is starting to slow. The 10-year treasury, as we're recording this, is only around 2.8%. That's not pricing in 8% inflation going out into the future. The market's always forward-looking. The market's always right. If the market's going up, the market's telling you that inflation is coming down, it's moderating, and the economy is probably stronger than what we've been hearing. 

This week on the tipping point: Financial jigsaw puzzle

We look at probably 50 portfolios a month so we know what all the strategies out there on Wall Street look like and we've found that most of you don't really have a financial independence plan. We want to talk about how having a jigsaw puzzle is comparable to building the right financial independence plan. You can create financial security, eventually, live off your assets, and depend on what you've saved over the years.

If somebody throws away the cover of the box, you have no idea what that picture is supposed to look like, and trying to put those pieces together is near impossible. Unfortunately, that's how a lot of people do their financial planning. We think the reason a lot of people avoid putting together a financial plan is that they have a collection of investments, accounts every which way, and they just don't know how to go about it. It can be pretty overwhelming for people.

That's why you need to have the cover of the box (a plan), to get a view of what you're doing. We need to begin with the end in mind. How much money are you going to need to live on? Just going through that whole exercise is so therapeutic and it puts everything into focus.

This week’s hidden facts of finance

• It's hard to overstate the importance of Taiwan to the US and the global tech landscape. Most of the advanced chips required from military defense systems and corporate computing services are made in Taiwan. Taiwan accounts for more than 90% of the world's most advanced chip manufacturing to put that in perspective South Korea is number two with just 8%. 
• Cell phones are making their way into younger hands. Last year, 43% of 8 to 12-year-olds had their own handsets. That's up from 24% in 2015.
• Do you remember the $6 million man? Well the $6 million dollar man toy from 1977, because of inflation today, would be called the $24 million man.
• Monaco has been crowned the most expensive city in the world to buy property. A million dollars only buys you 157 square feet of prime property. That's expensive!

Resources & People Mentioned

See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes

Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris

• http://PayneCM.com 
• Follow on Twitter
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What's up! It's episode 92 of Payne Points of Wealth and markets have finally rallied! Economic data, well… still not great. Earnings…not bad. But pay attention because the forward-looking markets are telling you about the future. We're going to explain why the market went up even in the light of huge inflation and geopolitical issues. Today on the Tipping Point, we're going to talk about what Wall Street loves to sell you, the products, and the schemes that you need to avoid to make sure you're on your path to financial independence. 

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

• Embrace the gloom [1:05]
• You can’t be all or none [3:58]
• Never a bad time to be in the market [7:00]
• The Tipping Point [10:47]
• Question to ask yourself if the yield sounds too good to be true [12:32]
• The 2 out of 3 rule 
• Hidden Facts of Finance [18:06]

There is NEVER a bad time to be in the market!

Jerome Powell has done a great job. As we've said, week after week, he's had his foot on the break, not trying to kill the economy just trying to slow it down. Not every company came out with spectacular earnings, even though 70% of the companies that have reported have shown positive on their earnings. But remember they're ratcheting those earnings down a little bit since we've had all these negative headwinds to contend with. 

We can't declare victory just yet, we still have inflation and a FED that's behind a curve. There is a chance that rates could go higher. That's why you have to be an investor and you have to make moves in this market. You can't be all or none because if you're sitting on the sidelines right now and you got out of the market, even if you just got out in January, you're wondering now what do I do as you're still making nothing on your cash!

This week on the tipping point: Preposterous Products

In our collective 75 years in the financial services industry at our firm PCM, we analyzed close to like 50 portfolios a month. We know what everyone is doing out there and we find it shocking that in our industry a lot of the products that are sold are great for the firm that sold them and great for the commission to the broker that sold them but they're not necessarily the best place for you to put your money. There is a lot of buyer beware action out there. Here are a few of the top products to look out for:

1. Anything with a fancy, shiny sales brochure or proposal. If it’s got really great graphics and high falutin terms while making promises of fantastic returns there is probably a trap in the fine print. 
2. Another investment that gets sold, not bought, on Wall Street are insurance products like annuities. They give you a guaranteed income for life, protect your principle, and all this stuff sounds really good. Ask about the return over the last 10 years and see if you get a real answer. 

Check out the episode to hear us explain why!

This week’s hidden facts of finance

• More than half of generation Z adults between 18 and 25 are already investors with 26% invested in individual stocks. This would make them more financially active than any previous generation at their age.
• Bill Gates, the largest private owner of US farmland, said on social media that he is going to be investing in more farmland. Microsoft to micro-greens and it's reported that he's making almost 700 million a year on the rents on these farms.
• Median home prices in the US went from $275,000 to $400,000 in three years. That's more than a 15% compounded annual growth rate in just three years.
• New York rents set records last quarter. In much of Manhattan and Brooklyn median asking prices jumped 40% or more from 2021. In Manhattan, the biggest rise was in the area covering Soho, Little Italy, and Nolita. The median rent is up 51% at $4,825. It's painful here in the village. 

Resources & People Mentioned

See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes

Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris

• http://PayneCM.com 
• Follow on Twitter
• Follow on Facebook
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Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

What's up! It's episode 91 of Payne Points of Wealth and we're getting mixed emotions from the economy in the stock market as we're in the midst of earning season. Surprise, surprise earnings are not looking as bad as Wall Street is wanting you to believe. We're going to break it down and give you our view on what's going on with earnings right now. What we see right now with the economy, the labor market, inflationary pressure, everything everyone's talking about, we're going to give you the Payne view. 

On the Tipping Point, we have guest Aaron Dessen, a Certified Financial Planner™ at Payne Capital Management, and we're going to give you a financial independence pop quiz! Can you answer these questions? Are you on your path to financial independence or do you need some help?

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

• Could the lows be behind us already? [2:32]
• What the FED is doing is working [5:55]
• What happened the last time we saw high bond allocations [8:21]
• The Tipping Point [12:43]
• Do you know how much it costs to fund your lifestyle? [13:50]
• What does your net worth need to be before you can live off of your portfolio? [16:12]
• Hidden Facts of Finance [21:22]

Are the lows already behind us?

Jeremy Siegel is a great economist and a professor of finance at Wharton at the University of Pennsylvania. He's a big fan of Jerome Powell and the federal reserve and has been rooting them on to raise interest rates. He believes that they will hike 75 bits next week. Jeremy also thinks that they're going to start paying attention to the slowdown in the economy and the lows could absolutely be behind us already. Now he doesn't KNOW, but again, he's a smart man and he knows that J Powell is looking at all the indicators. Who knows, we might have seen peak inflation. 

It was indicative last week when we had really good earnings on a Tuesday and markets went up over 700 points in one day! It's just a reminder the market action can change on a dime. Your bigger risk here is that we get good news and suddenly you get a huge melt-up in the market. This is why you don't market time because when that happens if you're not already invested, you miss the boat.

This week on the tipping point: Can you answer these questions?

The first question we usually ask people who walk into our firm is “Do you know how much it costs to fund your lifestyle?” In our experience, most people really have no idea. It's not that hard to figure out. You’ll need to know what your take-home income is and then we can figure out what your rate of savings is and kind of back into it from there. When we get to that number most people are pretty surprised. 

This leads to the question “What does your net worth need to be before you can live off of your portfolio?” What is it that takes people from feeling completely blind about what they’re doing to feeling comfortable and confident that they have a plan in place so they can sleep at night? The only way to figure that out is by doing a comprehensive financial plan. This brings us right back to the need to have an answer for question number one.

This week’s hidden facts of finance

• When it comes to food inflation margin experienced the largest percentage price increase. The spread is 34.5% more expensive than it was last June and its price leaped up 7% from May to June alone. 
• About 60% of working Americans say that the definition of what's considered "professional" has changed since the start of the pandemic. Keeping a conservative appearance seems to be losing popularity. 
• An NFT (non-fungible token) by Digital artist Pak, a pseudonymous artist (or artist collective), called The Merge is the most expensive NFT ever sold. It sold for 91.8 million.
• Cassettes are back! In the US sales have seen sharp gains in recent years. The format nearly doubled from 173,000 units sold in 2020 to 343,000 units sold last year and are already at 215,000 units sold in 2022, on pace to make it another record year. I don't get it. 

Resources & People Mentioned

Aaron Dessen works closely with clients providing personalized service and advice, focusing on goals-based investing and comprehensive financial planning for individuals, families, and businesses.

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What's up! It's episode 90 of Payne Points of Wealth! Who once said there ain't no time for the summertime blues? Well, guess what? The stock market didn't get the memo, we're still seeing tremendous volatility in stocks right now. Earnings season is upon us and it could be the most critical earning season of the year and give us a preview into what's going to happen in the economy the rest of the year. Of course, we're going to give you our thoughts today on how you should position your portfolio right now to protect yourself but grow your money. On the Tipping Point, we're going to give you some practical tips and steps to ensure you're going to be financially independent. 

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

• Businesses are showing no signs of recession but banks are prepping [1:07]
• Uncertainty is high. Are we going over a cliff? [4:19]
• How can low markets be in the best interest of your portfolio? [6:17]
• The Tipping Point [8:55]
• Are you taking the appropriate amount of risk? [10:30]
• Looking under the hood to find out what risk you’re really taking [13:33]
• Having a holistic plan [15:44]
• Hidden Facts of Finance [18:39]

Perhaps this is in my best interest

An upset client called worried about what's going on with the world and she was concerned about her portfolio. This is normal and something we hear often. She asked if we thought it would be a good time for her to go to cash? Of course, our answer is ABSOLUTELY NOT! We informed her that that would hurt her entire plan. 

She wanted to know why.

We went on to explain that more than half of her returns come just from those interest and dividends and that she needed to remember that we're reinvesting that at low, low prices. She then says, so this actually could be a good thing for me? We couldn't congratulate that client more. She's absolutely right and there’s nothing better than the feeling you get when a client gets it!

This week on the tipping point: Are you taking the appropriate risk?

We have found that the biggest question we get from people who come to us whether they're referred or they come knocking on our door, is "Am I taking enough risk to achieve my goals, or am I taking more risk than necessary?" And what we've found with most investors is they take way more risk than necessary, especially when they're within three years of achieving their retirement goals. The problem is you don't realize you're taking that risk until the market goes down. 

How would you even know the risk you're taking if you have multiple accounts? You'd probably think you were diversified because you have different accounts. The problem is when you look under the hood and you look at all those accounts together, a lot of that money is all concentrated in the same place and you probably don't even know it. You're thinking I have lots of accounts, lots of different investments. I'm probably diversified and you're wrong. You're not diversified. You know, it really pays to know how all your money is allocated together. 

This week’s hidden facts of finance

• During the 12 US recessions since WWII the median decline in dividends paid by S&P 500 companies was just 1% in 5 of those recessions, 1949, 74, 80, 81, and 90 there was absolutely no decline. Even in the sharpest and deepest recession in modern history, S&P dividends only fell by 3%. Dividends are a great inflation hedge. 
• During the Great Inflation from 1968 to 1983, the consumer price index surged 186% or 7.3% annually over 15 years. Exacerbated by two oil crises that also slowed the economy and increased unemployment. This painful condition was dubbed stagflation. 
• A one-bedroom apartment in New York City has been leased for $5,000 a month. That 600 square feet. Whoever said New York city was dead was clearly wrong. 
• The iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF has dropped 24% in 2022, worse than the S&P's 18% decline as this recording. Momentum is among the worst performing factors this year trailing only growth.

Resources & People Mentioned

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What's up! It's episode 89 of Payne Points of Wealth. Recession, no recession? I know you're tired of talking about it. We’re tired of talking about it. The media can't stop talking about it. Well, we're going to give you our views today. The employment numbers were hot last week, red hot, we've got over 11 million jobs available in this country and only 5 million people looking. We're suspicious about this recession and we'll talk about why in this episode. On the Tipping Point, we're going to talk about the hard truths of financial independence that you're going to have to grapple with, that you will have to deal with if you want to be financially free. Check it out!

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

• The most highly anticipated recession in history [1:05]
• Is it a recession or a slow down? [4:26]
• The Tipping Point [8:27]
• How we know when someone has a bad investment strategy [10:10]
• Now is the time to be proactive [13:17]
• Hidden Facts of Finance [17:03]

The problem with the media

The problem with the media is that you get this barrage of negative news and it discounts the fact that there are a lot of positives out there. Look at earnings, we've got earning seasons upon us, and for all intent and purposes, it's probably going to be pretty good. You're going to have some revisions downward for some companies, but for the most part, the projections looking out for the rest of the year should be pretty solid. 

We've got earnings growth, loan employment, and Americans sitting on their highest net worth ever, meanwhile, all we can hear about is how we're having this slowdown, how we're about to fall off a cliff. It just doesn't jive, with what it actually happening right now in the economy. And I think many people will regret it later, not taking advantage of the uncertainty right now. This uncertainty is your best friend as an investor and when you look back, these are always your best opportunities. 

This week on the tipping point: No way around uncertainty

When we're helping people achieve their path to financial independence, there's no way to get around uncertainty. We wish we could make it so easy and all the variables could just be taken out of the equation but part of financial independence and part of financial freedom is you have to become somewhat comfortable with the fact that things are always a little uncertain. That's why it's so critical to have a process-driven strategy when investing your money versus an event-driven strategy. The market is counterintuitive, if you depend on what the Federal Reserve is going to do next the market has already anticipated that. You're going to have a hard time making investment decisions based on reacting all the time to what's going on. If you're process driven, it gives you the ability to be unemotional and to be a little more pragmatic when it comes to strategy. 

This week’s hidden facts of finance

• Hendrik Bessembinder performed a study on every stock on the New York stock exchange in NASDAQ, going back to 1926. He found that 86 stocks accounted for roughly half of the market's total return over 90 years!
• The age of peak TV is ending a TV director who made 4 million a year now gets 750,000 a year. TV budgets have dropped more than 30%.
• Top Gun is making 2022 a top year for both Tom Cruise and Paramount pictures. Top Gun Maverick passed 1 billion in global ticket sales making it the highest-grossing film ever for Tom Cruise and the biggest movie for the studio since Transformers Age of Extinction in 2014.
• Bridgewater's flagship hedge fund gained 32% for the first half of the year in their firm's Pure Alpha II fund, which is pretty impressive. The fund has returned 11.4% annualized since its inception in 1991, which is really not that impressive when you consider you could have just bought the S&P 500, which returned 10.6% since 1991.

Resources & People Mentioned

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What's up! It's episode 88 of Payne Points of Wealth, and we’ve finished the year's first half. It's been the worst start of a year for the S&P 500 since 1970 as markets are down nearly 20%. In the meantime, inflation remains high. The Fed is going to continue to tighten its monetary policy. What does this all mean for the second half of the year? Well, the answer may surprise you and we're going to break it down for you today. On the Tipping Point today, since we're just passing the 4th of July weekend, we're going to talk about financial independence. What do you need to be independent of to be financially independent? We're going to talk about how to give you your path to financial freedom the right way.

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

• The downside of cooling off the economy [1:25]
• Don’t wait for opportunity to be gone [3:56]
• Picking on Wall Street [7:42]
• The Tipping Point [10:07]
• Scared money never wins [14:06]
• Hidden Facts of Finance [18:50]

Look for the positives among the negative news

The financial media grabs onto every negative headline. They take everything that's bad and exacerbated by making it sound even worse. China, for example, is coming out of its COVID shutdown instead of focusing on the fact that it's going to help the supply chain disruptions which will help the global economy they look for ways to scare people. Saying things like that demand will push oil to $200 a barrel. 

They take every bit of news and they spin it negatively and of course, when your portfolio's down, your statement's down, you tend to start to view those headlines with a little more attention than you normally would. It forces you to think negatively and that's where you must be careful. You have to remember the values are better now than they were in the last six months. You have bond yields that are attractive. There's a lot of opportunity being created but the news media wants you to think that it will never get better. 

This week on the tipping point: What do you want to be free FROM?

We just celebrated the 4th of July and in the spirit of the independence weekend, let's talk about financial freedom and what we want to be free FROM to indeed be financially independent.

One of the biggest things we want to be independent of is the government. You want to maximize your Social Security from them but you want to pay the least amount of tax possible. It blows our minds at how many tax inefficient portfolios we review almost daily. Within the confines of the law, there are so many little tweaks you can make to your portfolio. It's always little tweaks and not big sweeping changes that have a dramatic impact on your portfolio. 

Independence from family is another thing we want to celebrate on the 4th of July. Not that you don't want your kids around, but you don't want to be sleeping on your kid's couch in your golden years. So you want to be certain that you have a plan in place that accounts not just for the income you need, but for the inflation that we're seeing in this current economy. 

This week’s hidden facts of finance

• Paul McCartney's total reported career growth has now surpassed the billion dollar mark making him one of 11 artists to surpass the mark in box scores 30+ year history.
• TikTok has surged to a billion plus global users. It raked in almost 4 billion last year in 2021, mostly from ads, and has projected to hit 12 billion this year. 
• It's been a dreadful first half of the year for speculative grade debt bond funds, AKA junk bonds. With the popular iShares iBoxx high yield corporate bond exchange traded funds suffering and negative. Total 13% negative return this year through June 22nd.

Resources & People Mentioned

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In this urgent episode of the Payne Points of Wealth, Bob, Ryan, Chris & Courtney dive deep into the recent stock market sell-off and its implications for your investment portfolio. With uncertainty over tariffs, economic and earnings growth high, it's more critical than ever to allocate your hard-earned money properly. Join us as we explore commonsense strategies to protect your portfolio during these turbulent times. From broadening out your investment exposure to understanding how to properly safeguard your assets, we share our playbook and insights to help you navigate the current financial storm. Don't miss out on this essential guide to securing your financial future!

What's up! It's episode 87 of Payne Points of Wealth and the S & P 500 has had the worst start of the year since 1970 and there's a lot to be concerned about. We've got war in Eastern Europe, we've got interest rates going up, we have inflation at the highest it’s been in literally 40 years. In addition to that, we have China in somewhat of a lockdown. We've got commodity prices starting to come down. What does it all mean? Well, we're going to break it down today. We're going to tell you exactly what we think about the economy, the market. Markets are down over 20% so we're going to talk about a bear market survival guide. Do you have what it takes to survive this bear market? Listen and find out!

 

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

• Clarity is not a friend of the investor [1:43]
• The Fed is doing a good job [4:11]
• When you make the big money in your portfolio [7:17]
• The Tipping Point [9:14]
• How quickly can you turn your investments to cash? [11:57]
• Avoid the sexy pitch [14:11]
• Are you obsessed with dividend-yielding stock? [16:11]
• Hidden Facts of Finance [18:27]

You can't get good prices with good news

The only thing certain about this market is uncertainty. We have recession fears, inflation, hysteria, interest rate concerns, and a federal reserve that told us that the inflation rate was transitory. Now they're telling us we'll tell you when it's done going up and we'll be able to give you a nice soft landing. Sounds like we're gonna have a real bumpy landing! The point is when you get markets that go down this quickly and this hard, generally, there's a snap-back rally at some point, and you don't want to be on the sidelines when that happens.

The way that markets work, and we talk about this a lot, they're forward-looking. The market will most likely recover way before the news gets better. A popular mentality is "Let me just wait and see. Are we in a recession yet? Let's get some clarity." Well, clarity is not your friend when it comes to investing. When the uncertainty is high and we have no idea what's going to happen, that's when you get the best pricing. You can't get good prices with good news. So this bad news is a huge advantage, as you're trying to allocate capital right now, you've gotta embrace the uncertainty.

This week on the tipping point: Bear market survival guide

While it may feel prudent to take action during a bear market decline and sell out of your portfolio in our experience, the long-term results can be disastrous. Selling when prices are down will lead to permanent losses and then you miss the inevitable big recovery rally, which typically comes out of nowhere. Therefore, keeping your head during these extreme periods of volatility is critical to achieving your long-term financial goals. I thought we could discuss our firm's bear market survival guide. 

The number one thing you should always do is reassess your portfolio allocation, especially when you're in volatile times. We tend to let our winners run and ignore our losers so over time you get out of balance. If you're not constantly rebalancing your portfolio with cash flow or with some type of systematic rebalancing annually, you're most likely out of whack right now and the market is not very forgiving guys. It reminds you when you're outta whack.

This week’s hidden facts of finance

• US Federal regulators say 46,000 people have reported losing $1 billion in the Crypto Market in scams since January of this past year.
• The average peak to trough bear market decline is 37.3% over a span of 289 days. Matching that pattern we'd end this pain in this bear market on October 19th, 2022.
• The average peak to trough bear market decline is 37.3% over a span of 289 days. Matching that pattern we'd end this pain in this bear market on October 19th, 2022.
• Thanks to the Stranger Things series on Netflix, Kate Bush has broken three UK chart records with the resurgence of "Running Up That Hill" which last peaked on the charts at #3 in 1985! 

Resources & People Mentioned

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What's up! It's episode 86 of Payne Points of Wealth and the sky is literally falling. We're in an official bear market now in the S & P 500. NASDAQ is down over 30%. The headlines get direr by the day. War continues in Eastern Europe. And Bitcoin, we warned you about Bitcoin, is melting down. Well, we're gonna break it all down for you today. We have a special guest on the show today, Lee Robinson, co-founder, and CIO of Altana Wealth, an asset management firm running all different hedge fund strategies. He predicted the credit crisis between 2007 and 2009. He's seen a lot of bull and bubble bursts, written a great book called "The Gathering Storm", has a BA in mathematics from Cambridge University, and he is a good friend of Ryan's.

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

• Lee’s outlook on the current economic market [1:23]
• There’s neven been an empire that hasn’t failed [5:00]
• One piece of advice as an investor [10:01]
• The Tipping Point [11:20]
• The 80% lie [11:49]
• The income for life guarantee [14:19]
• If it ain’t broke don’t fix it [18:04]
• Hidden Facts of Finance [20:26]

Advice from Lee Robinson

In this episode, we talked with Lee Robinson. We asked him if he could share only one piece of advice, something that he's learned over the years that he could impart on the rest of us, what would it be? This is what he has to say.

"I think the biggest mistake that I see in finance is that people cannot work from forward back to the present. They get panicked, they see a company that has a profit warning because it couldn't satisfy an order. Well, those orders are still going to come, it's still a good business. So there's a lot of short-term emotion and not enough rational thought about long-term. And I think if you're investing, I'm not talking about trading. Traders are different people. They can buy high and sell higher. They can sell low and it goes lower. But as an investor—trust, try, and think forward. When you're in a pandemic and Carnival is not allowed to do any cruises, does that mean that cruising is over forever and that business is worth zero? Probably not. So I do think sometimes investors need to think I am investing for the long run. What does this business look like in the long run? And then think, well, is it too expensive today, rather than thinking I'm buying it today can it go up tomorrow? So I think investing is something people don't understand. They confuse it with trading.

This week on the tipping point: Financial untruths

For anyone who's getting close to being financially independent or going into retirement, there is this myth that you only need 80% of what you need when you're working when you're retired. 

We know that's just not true. Not only do you spend a hundred percent of what you spend today, in the first few years of retirement, you're not going to work anymore but you are going traveling, you're spending more time with your kids and your grandkids you’ll probably spend close to 120%. That's why it's so critical to have a strategy where you're updating your financial plan on a systematic basis. Our e-money portal because it updates everything in real time so it's easy for us to do a planning session if someone decides to take a longer vacation, buy

This week’s hidden facts of finance

• A group led by Walmart heir Robert Walton agreed to buy the Denver Broncos for 4.65 billion, a record in US pro sports.
• Apple generates more revenue than any other American company. This year, the total should be around 400 billion. To boost revenue by 10% Apple needs to find 40 billion in additional sales. Growth becomes harder the bigger you become.
• Worker swipe-ins at office buildings were recently in the 30 to 40% range in major markets, such as New York, Chicago, and San Francisco. It was above 50% in the sunbelt markets like Dallas and Houston. People are not back to the office in droves yet.
• US inflation is 48th highest on the list of 111 countries. Last year we were ranked 28th out of 116. countries. Inflation is a global phenomenon, not a US phenomenon. 

Resources & People Mentioned

Special guest Lee Robinson from Altana Wealth

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What's up! It's episode 85 of Payne Points of Wealth and some days the market goes up, some days the market goes down. Some days interest rates go up, and some days they go down. So what's going on right now? Which way is the market blowing? We're going to talk about what we think is going to happen with the market and the economy. Are we going to go into this recession that more and more economists are talking about? And is inflation done with? Are we going to see peak inflation now or is it going to keep going up the rest of the year? We're going to tell you what we think for the summer and the rest of the year on how to position your portfolio and what we see in the economy ahead. On the Tipping Point today, we're going to talk about your emotions. How do you handle uncertainty? We're going to talk about the right way and the wrong way to handle volatility. Keep your emotions in check, and check it out. 

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

• Is the economy actually bad? [1:14]
• We’ve already had the recession! [3:52]
• A lot of tailwinds just waiting to get unleashed [7:19]
• The Tipping Point [10:09]
• Fear and panic [10:51]
• Opportunism [13:17]
• Numbness [14:25]
• Anger [15:52]
• Blissful ignorance [16:27]
• Hidden Facts of Finance [18:36]

One positive catalyst can change everything!

Everyone's talking about all the negativity, we have list upon list of what's negative right now. However, look at China, the restrictions are starting to go away, look at inflation, there's a good chance that inflation's going to come down this year. So you get one positive catalyst. Man, oh man, this market could ramp up in a hurry and you don't wanna be on the sidelines, earning nothing in cash, just trying to play catch up later. Like that's not the position you want to be in, right? I mean, you wanna be prepared for the unexpected and the unexpected being positive here, not negative because a lot of this negative news is already priced in the market. Cuz we're talking about it. 

This week on the tipping point: Coping with uncertainty

We're in a period of extreme turbulence and what we have found at our firm Payne Capital Management, is that when volatility is high and the future unclear, we all cope with uncertainty in different ways. In this episode, we will discuss some of the different emotions or mindsets that we've seen on display over the last couple of months and whether it is helping you or in some cases, hurting your financial independence plan.

The first one is fear and panic. Are you allowing yourself to make poor decisions like trying to time the market? It’s probably due to these two emotions. Then there is opportunism. We hear people say "I'm going to sit on the sidelines and wait for the market to collapse." But to be able to predict that is impossible. 

Another emotion we think a lot of people are feeling right now is despondency or we'll call it numbness. Where maybe you put a lot of money into tech, disruptive technology, or Bitcoin, and now all of a sudden you're down huge. The mindset we're seeing is to sit and wait for it to come back. That can be wrong because we don't know when it's going to rebound.

Then there is an emotion that everybody gets at some point, Bob even had this happen to him. You get angry. You know when you lose a lot of money on something and then refuse to buy anymore even if it does well because you are angry about what happened.

And lastly is blissful ignorance. If your advisor isn’t talking to you about your portfolio and what you should be doing proactively. Don’t just hope and pray that they are looking out for your best interest. If they're not talking to you that's not something to be ignorant about.

This week’s hidden facts of finance

• Ironically, momentum stocks, which by definition should be the best performers, have been getting hit with the iShare's Edge MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF declining 20% in 2022. The trend is not your friend!
• In the third quarter of 2021, the $191,000,000 JP Morgan small cap sustainable leaders fund became, all of a sudden overnight, an ESG or environmentally friendly fund in one year when it lost 184 million in assets.
• 18 months ago Zoom had a bigger market capitalization than Exxon Mobil but today Exxon is 10 times bigger than Zoom.

Resources & People Mentioned

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What's up! It's episode 84 of Payne Points of Wealth! Markets Go Up, Markets Go Down, Markets Go Sideways! We have no idea where the direction of the market is going right now. It's crazy out there. We've got good manufacturing data. We've got good employment data. Yet, it seems like something is looming on the horizon. We're gonna break it down for you. What our view is of the economy right now and how to position your portfolio best given all the uncertainty in the world. On the Tipping Point today, we've got lots of questions from you the listeners. We're going to answer some of the questions that you've sent us in the last couple of months, some really good ones that we're gonna address today to help you on your path to financial independence.

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

• Is this a 2008 repeat or is it different this time? [1:08]
• If you're sitting in cash right now what are you waiting for? [4:42]
• How can you have a recession when everyone is employed? [7:11]
• The Tipping Point [9:22]
• Do you favor selling stocks at this time or just riding the carnage out? [14:57]
• Hidden Facts of Finance [18:04]

Is it different this time?

We're getting a lot of questions as to whether this is like the 2008, 2009 great recession, is financial panic on the horizon, or is it different this time? You know the four most dangerous words according to Sir John Templeton are it's different this time. We're seeing phenomenal economic numbers so we don't think that it's a repeat of 2008 and 2009. But when you see the headlines every day, they just come in so dire. We had JP Morgan's CEO, Jamie Dimon, come out and say that we have an economic hurricane on the horizon. That's not comforting. He's concerned about this big roll off of all these bonds that the Fed's been holding on their balance sheet. He said, it's unprecedented and he's worried about the war in Ukraine. Man, oh, man. It just seems like every headline out there wherever you look, is just negativity, negativity, negativity. Thankfully, we do this podcast to counter some of that. 

This week on the tipping point: Q&A

We get a lot of questions from listeners and our clients over the last couple of weeks. So I thought we could answer a couple of them here right on the show. The first question is great because a lot of people probably have the same questions about their financial independence plan.

The first question is: My wife and I are in our 50s and are thinking about changing our lifestyle to do some traveling while we work remotely. What would your advice be towards building a million-dollar portfolio of dividend-producing stocks to supplement our income while we travel for a couple of years? This would consist of solid blue chip dividend stocks and some REIT stocks with high-paying dividends. 

The second question is: Do you favor selling stocks at this time or just riding the carnage out? In other words, is this a correction or the beginning of a bear market?

Listen to the episode for our answers to the questions above! 

This week’s hidden facts of finance

• Global GDP has estimated to run $94 trillion this year. The US represents only 25% of that, which says there might be some opportunity to invest maybe outside the US.
• Saudi Aramco replaced Apple as the world's most valuable company.
• Since 1936 dividends have contributed 36% of the total return of the S&P 500 according to a Bank of America. Expect payments again to grow by 13%. this year.

Resources & People Mentioned

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What's up! It's episode 83 of Payne Points of Wealth and volatility is insane right now. We're teetering on a bear market, crypto markets have melted down. Meanwhile, all of those disruptive technology stocks are down 70-80%, and you've got more recession talk with every passing week as pessimism rules the day. What's really going on in the economy and in the stock market? We're gonna give you our view on how to play it. We've got the plan you just have to listen to it. On the Tipping Point today, we're going to talk about all those burning questions you have right now. Questions that we get from our clients that are also applicable to you so that you can get the best plan for financial independence. 

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

• Has the FED done a good job? [3:09]
• Volatile markets make bad decisions seem rational [7:20]
• The Tipping Point [10:14]
• Why are stocks and bonds down at the same time? [10:47]
• Is this a correction or the beginning of a big bear market? [13:04]
• What influence will change of the majority party have on the stock market? [15:38]
• What percentage should be in a conservative vehicle if I retire in a year? [17:21]
• Hidden Facts of Finance [20:36]

Rationally irrational 

The whole problem with these volatile markets is it feels so rational. It sounds rational to sit in something that doesn't go down until the volatility is over and then you can just kind of work your way back in. That sounds so rational but you know what? It's irrational. It means you have to make two perfect timing decisions. Just think about it guys, a week ago we had a market that was up 900 one day and down 1000 the next. Are you going to tell me that somebody is smart enough to time that perfectly? I don't think so. 

This week on the tipping point: Conference call Q&A

We did our conference call for clients recently (we will drop the link down below so you can check it out if you'd like) and we had a lot of questions come in. We have over a thousand clients and a lot of them had the same concerns so in this episode we will discuss some of the bigger concerns that they had that most of you probably have too.

Here are some of the questions we got. The first question that came in was why are stocks and bonds both down right now at the same time in this crazy market? Should we maintain a 60% stock, 40% fixed income/bond ratio, or move to a 70/30 ratio or something else?

The next question that came in was assuming a global recession is inevitable does it make sense for a retiree to sell stocks in advance of the train hitting the wall, in other words, is this a correction or the beginning of a big bear market?

Another good question that came in on our conference call was as the midterm elections approach, what influence will the change of the majority party in the House and Senate have on the stock market? 

Another question was at 64 years old and retiring in another year, what percentage of my portfolio should be in a very conservative vehicle? 

If you’re curious about our take on any of these questions check out the episode!

This week’s hidden facts of finance

• From 1965 to 2021 Berkshire Hathaway shares generated a compound annual return of 20.1% vs the S & P 500's 10.5% a year return.
• Some forecasters look for gold to reach $3000 an ounce in the next two years.
• …Baby, One More Time by Britney Spears has now sold 25 million copies around the world making it the biggest selling album ever recorded by a teenage girl.
• The Reddit crowd who jumped in when the lockdown began have now given back all their once tremendous gains.

Resources & People Mentioned

Check out the conference call we talked about here.

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What's up! It's episode 82 of Payne Points of Wealth. Another day and more of the same issues. Major volatility in the stock markets as interest rates continue to go higher. The FED continues to tighten monetary policy. In addition to that supply chains are still an issue as China is on some sort of lockdown. In addition to that, we still have war in Eastern Europe. What do you make of everything? More economists every day calling for a recession. We're gonna give you our view on exactly what's going on right now in the economy and what you should be doing with your investment portfolio. On the tipping point today, are you a do-it-yourself investor? We're going to talk about the pros and cons of running your money by yourself. Is it a good thing or a bad thing? Is it for you? We're gonna get into it today. 

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

• Going into recession? [2:48]
• Bond fund news [5:01]
• The Tipping Point [8:46]
• Are you living in an echo chamber? [10:29]
• What if something happens to you as a DIYer [13:17]
• Having an accountability partner [16:06]
• Hidden Facts of Finance [18:59]

Pent up demand is keeping the economy growing

We have this pent-up demand of people who have been trying to buy homes but there's been a shortage. Prices are going up and housing is still strong and there are still a lot of potential buyers out there. People are still trying to buy cars. There are still vehicle shortages. Companies are trying to expand but they can't find the workers. This pent-up demand is going to continue to keep the economy growing in spite of this inflation. In spite of all the negativity that's out there right now. 

When you're going into recession you're past pent-up demand. Right? You have demand actually starting to dial back. That's been the argument of all these economists that with inflation so high the consumer is just about to pull back. Well, we've been waiting for that be we are not seeing that. There's no consumer right now that's starting to pull back, no matter how high inflation is. This is more indicative of when you come out of a recession not when you are headed into one.

This week on the tipping point: Are you a do-it-yourself investor?

We have a very special guest on our show today financial advisor at Payne Capital Management Francesca “Frankie” Lagrotteria. We have been talking about the differences between investing on your own and using a financial professional. For this episode we thought we could discuss some of the pros and cons of running money on your own and whether it makes sense to make that transition from being a do-it-yourself investor to working with a financial professional. 

Frankie calls it being a self-employed investor. She says there are definitely some benefits to both, but there are, more importantly, some heavy risks, especially with the self-employed investor. When you do things yourself, you start to live in an echo chamber and have an advisor you have that third party, someone to bounce those ideas off of. Check out the episode to determine if DIY’ing is best for you or if it’s time to hand things over to the pros!

This week’s hidden facts of finance

• Is the U.S. dollar getting a little stretched? 
• Flexibility has become the top worker demand. In the U.S. 2 in 5 workers desire control over their own schedules and nearly half would be willing to accept a 5% or more pay cut to get it.
• Apple marched into 2022 as the first company to reach a $3 trillion market value making its market cap larger than all but 4 countries.
• Mariah Carey insured her legs and vocal cords for $35 million each totaling $70 million together.

Resources & People Mentioned

Meet Francesca “Frankie” Lagrotteria

See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes

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What's up! It's episode 81 of Payne Points of Wealth and we have a very special guest for you today, Mr. Charles Payne, from Making Money with Charles Payne on Fox Business. He is also the Founder and CEO of Wall Street Strategies, Inc., an independent stock market and equity research company. Charles talks about his life philosophy, his journey to success, and the state of Wall Street today. 

We're also going to talk about all the volatility in the market. We've got a recession potentially on the horizon, negative GDP growth in the first quarter, and earnings coming in strong. What does it all mean? We're going to give you our viewpoint on the stock market and the economy. Don’t miss it!

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

• Living two childhoods [1:57]
• The transition from the Air Force to Wall Street [7:17]
• What should you study today to prepare for a career on Wall Street? [14:08]
• Charles’ view on financial security [21:57]
• Back to our regularly scheduled program…Wall Street is a zoo! [27:48]
• Getting past the noise [31:55]
• Hidden Facts of Finance [36:06]

Making Money with Charles Payne

Charles’ childhood was his driving force behind wanting to be in the financial industry. He had two very different childhoods, he tells us about them in the episode so be sure to check it out. At 14 he told his mom he was going to work on Wall Street and at 17 she co-signed so that he could buy his first mutual fund. After four years in the Air Force Charles started his career on Wall Street at E. F. Hutton. His exceptional people skills seem to be a running theme found throughout his success. Charles loves what he does and can’t imagine retiring. You can find him weekdays on his show Making Money with Charles Payne on Fox Business. 

2022…The year of going nowhere FAST!

It seems like we're back to where we were in January. We had an all-time record high the first week of January, then we had a big correction. Rallied back up but now we're back down to where we were corrected. It seems like we're standing still, but meanwhile, lots of economic numbers are coming in. We just had a very negative GDP down 1.4%. I say negative when you say it in the context of what the last quarter was, which was up 6.9%. Meanwhile, earnings are good, unemployment numbers are dropping, and margins are improving. 

We're going nowhere fast. There's been tons of volatility, but if you look at it over the last 10 months, unless you're talking about growth or disruptive technology, the market's been sideways. The hawks are getting more hawkish because the FED is tightening financial conditions. The bears are getting more bearish. Wall Street is a zoo!

This week’s hidden facts of finance

• Computer-driven trading accounts for 65-70% of daily equity activity
• More than 4.3 billion people spend about four hours a day on mobile devices.
• Russia's economy is smaller than New York's and technologically way more backward.
• More than 70% of Americans don't know what an NFT is. However, 23% of millennials in the U.S. collect NFTs

Resources & People Mentioned

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What's up! It's episode 80 of Payne Points of Wealth and inflation is now officially at a 40+ year high! The highest level since December of 1981! Are we finally there? Is the economy going to go off a cliff or is the fact that you couldn't get a ticket to Miami to go for the weekend say that the economy's in really good shape? We're gonna explain that for you today. We're going to talk about every stage of your financial life, whether you're 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, or 80 and what you need to be thinking about right now to make sure you're going to be completely financially independent. We're going to give you our playbook so go check it out!

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

• Inflation hurts! How do you offset inflation? [1:56]
• What you DON’T want in your portfolio [3:55]
• With all this horrible news why is the market going up? [7:16]
• The Tipping Point [10:23]
• 20’s [10:51]
• 30’s [12:33]
• 40’s [14:33]
• 50’s [16:01]
• 60’s [18:03]
• Hidden Facts of Finance [22:06]

This week on the tipping point: What you need to think of at each stage of your financial journey

What should you be thinking about at 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, maybe even 80, when it comes to your financial journey? 

In your 20s: The best thing you can do in your 20s is to save every penny you can because compounding works best when you start early. The earlier you start the more money you'll make. Use a Roth account if you can so that your money grows tax-free for life. 

In your 30s: This is the stage where you want to start to consolidate and bring everything together into what I would call a more concerted effort, as opposed to just having a hodgepodge of investments in different places. You should also start building an estate plan and your health savings plan. 

In your 40s: When you get into your 40s, hopefully, you've listened to our advice and you have accumulated wealth, and you're at a point where you have to get serious about the savings, especially college funding. Do this with 529 plans. 

In your 50s: This is when you realize that you may not be working with the right financial advisor. If you take a look at your financial plan and realize you don't have one but instead, you have a collection of investments that were either bought or sold to you in mutual funds, annuities, stocks, and bonds. Make sure that you make those course corrections before it's too late. You can also make catch-up contributions at this age. Start looking at long-term health care as well.

In your 60s: This is when you decide when to retire, look at how much money you'll need in retirement, and how you'll draw on your portfolios to get it. This is where you have to get really strategic in your planning because now you're there.

This week’s hidden facts of finance

• As of 2020, it's estimated that Americans saved over 60 million commute hours per day with remote work.
• The electronic system was 5% of the cost of a car in 1970, it's expected to be 50% by 2030.
• Monte Python And The Holy Grail's budget was 200,000 pounds and was raised by 10 investors contributing 20,000 each. Three of those investors were Pink Floyd, Led Zeppelin, and Genesis. 
• In 1994 Jeff Bezos famously spotted that the internet was growing at 2300% per year. That made him leave his high-paying private equity job to start Amazon.

Resources & People Mentioned

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Hey, what's up! Welcome to episode 79 of Payne Points of Wealth! Markets are going crazy! They’re going up, they're going down, they're going sideways! There has been a lot of volatility going nowhere fast as interest rates continue to climb higher. On top of that, we've got two-thirds of economists talking about a potential recession. We're going to tell you what we think about a recession and what we think the economy is going to do over the next 12 months. On the Tipping Point, we'll talk about investing with your emotions. Are your emotions are holding you back from making good investment decisions? Listen now to hear our advice on how to fix that!

 

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

• Are things worse than they’ve ever been? [1:19]
• One thing we see lacking in portfolios [5:20]
• The combination you want for a healthy economy [7:56]
• The Tipping Point [10:17]
• The biggest overweighting culprit [13:13]
•  When it’s appropriate to factor in emotions [15:42]
• Hidden Facts of Finance [18:45]

Do you have a pro-inflation portfolio?

One thing we see lacking more than anything else when we look at portfolios right now is that most of them don't have what we would call a pro-inflation portfolio. There aren't enough inflation hedges in the portfolio. There are too many assets that are reliant on low-interest rates and low inflation. We're probably not going back to less than 2% inflation like we saw the last decade and interest rates aren't going back to under 1% anytime soon. It's like just not happening. 

A lot of investors still want to hold onto what did well in the last 10 years. They're still on that growth trade. They still want to own all those large mega-cap stocks like Amazon, Google, Facebook, and Apple. Those stocks could go up, it's possible, but if we learned any lesson from the great tech bubble back in the late 90s’-00s’ it’s that a lot of these big companies like Microsoft can have a whole decade where the revenue continues to go up, the company does well, but the stock does nothing. That's one of the risks you have with a lot of these hot names. It's not that they get crushed. It's just that they don't do anything. 

This week on the tipping point: Bad emotional decisions

There are two huge emotions in investing. Fear and greed! Any decision made on either one of them has always historically been wrong. When it comes to making decisions about investments, it's extremely emotional. 

A lot of times when you make decisions, you think you're being logical but you're actually being emotional. When you act emotionally you end up making bad decisions about how to allocate your capital. So in this episode, we talk about some of the bad emotional decisions we can make and how to protect ourselves from...well...ourselves. Removing emotion will help you make good, pragmatic, long-term decisions to create wealth over time and reach financial independence. Go listen now to see if maybe you are allowing emotions to damage your portfolio, and what to do if you are!

This week’s hidden facts of finance

• From 2000 to 2010 emerging markets appreciated more than 16% a year. Whereas commodities returned about 6% a year and the NASDAQ only returned 1.6% a year. Fast forward from 2010 to now, the NASDAQ has returned 17% a year and emerging markets have only returned 3% a year, and commodities -0.15% a year. How times change!
• Archeologists discovered prehistoric human remains, ceremonial artifacts, and possibly the footprint of an ancient dwelling on the site of a planned 75 story residential condo tower in Miami. Talk about holding back project deadlines!
• 55 years ago, the photo session for the Beetles. Sgt Pepper's album cover took place. It cost nearly 3000 pounds, which was a huge sum at the time when album covers typically cost around 50 pounds.
• Over the long term, history shows the stock market has returned about twice as much as residential real estate. The S&P 500 returned, 12.47% annually from 1972 to 2021 vs only 5.41% for residential housing.

Resources & People Mentioned

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What's up! It's episode 78 of Payne Points of Wealth and markets have sparked a huge rebound over the course of the last couple of weeks. Ending the quarter, just down a little bit for the year. So what's the deal? Is this just a dead cat bounce? Markets are ready to fall off a cliff, we're going into recession because of high inflation, or is this beginning of a huge booming bull market as the economy chugs along? We're going to give you our thoughts on that, our viewpoint on where things are going today. And on the tipping point, we're going to talk about all those false notions that you have when it comes to your financial independence plan that you need to eradicate from your brain to make sure that you can be financially free.

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

• Dead cat bounce? [1:09]
• What will the market do with the federal reserve raising interest rates? [3:52]
• Concerns about open-ended bond fund [6:07]
• The Tipping Point [8:45]
• The proverbial magic retirement number [10:13]
• You’ll spend less money in retirement [11:53]
• No need to plan [14:45]
• Hidden Facts of Finance [17:57]

Are rate inversions an indicator of looming recession?

What is the market going to do with the federal reserve raising interest rates? We're already starting to see some inversions in rates in that shorter-term rates are higher than longer-term rates. Every headline this week says that's a precursor to a recession. 

It's a bunch of BS. It's a terrible indicator because there have been so many times that the curve was inverted and we didn't go into recession. But economists and the talking heads on TV love to talk about this. The other part you have to think about is that the government has manipulated the curve. They have this 900 trillion dollar balance sheet where they bought all these long-term bonds, which is keeping rates artificially low. Now it's getting a little wonky, but the point is, it's a BS indicator. They always roll it out every couple of years and it doesn't necessarily mean we're going into recession. In fact, it's been disproven over and over again many times. 

This week on the tipping point: False beliefs

Clients have a lot of big misconceptions or beliefs when it comes to what it means to be financially independent. Things like how much money you should have or you know what it should look like to be financially independent. We thought we could talk about some of those false beliefs that you have that are dangerous and are probably ruining your financial life. 

It's as dangerous when you build a house without a foundation as it is to build a financial plan without a foundation of a plan. If you're just sitting there arbitrarily coming up with some number, the goal post will keep moving. Check out the Tipping Point segment in this episode to hear about the false beliefs we have come across over the years. 

This week’s hidden facts of finance

• Southeast Asia is ditching pandemic restrictions at last! Promising an economic rebound for 650 million or so citizens. There are opportunities in Southeast Asia right now.
• The ProShares Ultra QQQs that's three times leverage on the NASDAQ is the most actively traded exchange-traded product this year. 
• Limited supply is helping home values. 2022 home price appreciation is estimated to hit 12%. Supply is a problem. 
• ESG ratings - don’t base your investment picks on a rating especially when Wall Street can charge you a higher percentage on products that they say are “ESG” 

Resources & People Mentioned

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In episode 195 of the Payne Points of Wealth, Bob, Ryan & Courtney discuss the recent stock market volatility and explore whether the Trump-era policies are to blame. Join us as we analyze the factors contributing to the current selloff, from trade wars to January’s weak economic data. We provide our expert insights on the market’s near-term outlook and offer actionable strategies for investors to grow and protect their wealth amidst uncertainty surrounding Trump 2.0’s new economic policies. Don’t miss this critical discussion on the forces shaping our financial landscape and the potential long-term impacts on your financial future.

What's up! It's episode 77 of Payne Points of Wealth and the market's finally finding some footing. We're getting some big up days. Is this just a bear market rally—a fake out—or is this the real deal? Are we're going to see all-time highs this year? We're going to talk about that along with the fact that we have interest rates...going up, oil prices...going up...inflation…going up! Are we going into a recession? So many economists are talking about it for 2023. We're going to tell you what we think you should be doing right now. On the Tipping Point today we're going to talk about those financial nuggets out there, those assets you forgot about long ago that you need to readdress to make sure your financial independence plan is in order. You don’t want to miss it!

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

• Interest rates up = stock prices up [1:11]
• What the market is starting to tell us [3:13]
• Meanwhile on the inflation front [6:29]
• The Tipping Point [9:16]
• Multiple 401Ks does not make you diversified [13:29]
• Hidden Facts of Finance [17:59]

It’s not about what’s going on with inflation…today

What’s happening with inflation today isn’t what the market is pricing today. What the market is going to start pricing in today is what inflation looks like in 12 or 24 months. The truth is, no matter what the media tells you, inflation is very likely going to be lower. That's what the market is starting to tell us right now. At this point, we’ve already gotten past the fact that the FED is going to raise interest rates. It's not going to be a surprise. They have pretty much telegraphed what this year looks like with interest rate hikes. There's nothing shocking about that. What you have to ask yourself as an investor is what will the world look like 12 to 24 months from now? What will the Payne's be saying on their podcast then?

This week on the tipping point: Forgotten assets

At our firm, Payne Capital Management, we do a lot of financial projections each year. We have three certified financial planners on our staff and we do everything from a planning-based approach. One of the parts of our process—which we think is very powerful— is a financial audit. We tally up everything you have and build a financial portal so that you can get a bird's eye view of everything you're holding. A lot of times people have assets they have totally forgotten about. 

Rediscovering forgotten assets is way better than slipping on an old pair of jeans and finding $20 in the pocket! 

A common forgotten asset we see, especially with millennials and even baby boomers, are old 401Ks from past jobs. A 401K is a great tool but it's a lousy place, a terrible platform, to invest your money. When you have multiple 401Ks in your portfolio you are paying multiple fees, have limited investment options, and you won’t be nearly as diversified as you think. Check out the episode to hear all the reasons we think this is a bad idea and what a better option is for that money. 

This week’s hidden facts of finance

• Andy Warhol’s silkscreen portrait of Marilyn Monroe will be put for auction this Spring with an asking price of 200 million. That will be the highest asking price for any piece of art at auction in history.
• U.S. office occupancy is still just 40%, despite the phasing out of mask and vaccine mandates for 98% of the country.
• Happy 75th birthday to Elton John this month! With 300 million records sold, 59 billboard top 40 singles, nine #1 singles, seven #1 albums he is Billboard's greatest solo artist of all time.
• Foreign investors have dumped a record 6 billion Chinese shares in the first three months of 2022 due to fear of new coronavirus outbreaks and the risk that Western countries will sanction Beijing as it supports Russia's war in Ukraine. That might be the counter-trend. It might be time to buy Chinese stocks.

Resources & People Mentioned

See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes

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What's up! It's episode 76 of Payne Points of Wealth and we are wondering if every strategist and economist will be wrong. Probably! Today we're going to talk about what the sentiment is on Wall Street and what investors are thinking right now. Hint, hint...they're very negative on the economy and the stock market. We're going to give you our contrarian view of what we think is going to happen over the course of the next couple of months, especially with interest rates going up now that the FED is officially raising interest rates for the first time since 2018. 

The conflict in Ukraine continues to go on. 

We're going to unpack a lot for you today and talk about some old-school wisdom. Bob's going to go back to the 70s’ at Merrill Lynch (when he had long hair and listened to Led Zeppelin) and tell you exactly what you need to think about philosophically when it comes to the markets. Let's hop to it. We got a great show today. 

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

• Geopolitical conflict is not as damaging to the market as you’d think [1:23]
• We are in an economic boom [3:19]
• The psychological aspect of inflation [6:54]
• The Tipping Point [9:26]
• Markets return to the mean [10:31]
• The public buys the most at the top and the least at the bottom [13:31]
• Fear and greed are stronger than long-term resolve [16:19]
• Bull markets are much more fun than bear markets [18:10]
• Hidden Facts of Finance [19:58]

Abundant Americas -vs- Negative Networks

The one thing that we've been stating every week is that we're in an economic boom, no matter what those strategists and economic gurus tell you. At the end of the day, we have an abundance of jobs, and wages are going higher. People are NOT dialing back their spending. Even with oil prices skyrocketing it's not going to stop them from spending, especially now that the economy is full-blown reopened. No one cares about COVID anymore or at least not enough to stop them from living life. We've learned to live with it. These are all big, big drivers for economic growth.

We should write an article every week, "If things are so good, why do I feel so awful?" Because after you look at the media or watch the news you're like, oh my gosh, things are so bad. But meanwhile, the US house's net worth is 150 trillion with a T. We're the wealthiest we've ever been in the history of the country. 

This week on the tipping point: Bob Farrell’s rules of investing

Here’s a list of Bob Farrell’s 10 rules that are still true today. Check out the episode to hear a breakdown of our favorite ones!

1. Markets tend to return to the mean over time
2. Excesses in one direction will lead to an opposite excess in the other direction
3. There are no new eras — excesses are never permanent
4. Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways
5. The public buys the most at the top and the least at the bottom
6. Fear and greed are stronger than long-term resolve
7. Markets are strongest when they are broad and weakest when they narrow to a handful of blue-chip names
8. Bear markets have three stages — sharp down, reflexive rebound, and a drawn-out fundamental downtrend
9. When all the experts and forecasts agree — something else is going to happen
10. Bull markets are more fun than bear markets

This week’s hidden facts of finance

• John Templeton following Bob-isms he didn’t even know about!
• Ukraine raised 63 million in crypto donations and people were scammed out of just as much. How’s that for secure currency?
• The metal nickel spiked to 100,000 per metric ton on the London metal exchange
• The asset manager’s $140 billion Pimco Income Fund held $1.14 billion worth of Russian government international bonds as of the end of 2021. 

Resources & People Mentioned

See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes

Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris

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What's up! It's episode 75 of Payne Points of Wealth and the war is intensifying in Ukraine. Interest rates are moving higher. Markets are all over the place. Volatility is insane right now. There are lots of questions about the economy, the price of commodities, the price of oil. Is it going to put us into a recession? We're hearing a lot of talk about that. We're going to give you our vantage point today. How to play it, how to invest your portfolio. We're also going to talk about how you set goals for your financial independence? What do you need to be thinking about psychologically and how to put that plan in place? How do you start to think about what goals are realistic and unrealistic? Listen and find out!

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

• Investing is so counterintuitive [2:38]
• The Tipping Point [8:26]
• What you can control [10:05]
• What’s your number? [12:29]
• Are your goals realistic? [13:43]
• Hidden Facts of Finance [17:18]

Why is investing so difficult?

Investing is so difficult because the market's always climbing this wall of worry. The headlines are NATO. The headlines are Ukraine. Headlines are inflation. Once everybody feels good about that, they're not going to wave a flag saying it's safe to invest because there will be new concerns. That's why it's so difficult to stay invested and to invest in the face of all this trouble. 

We have an inflation number that's close to 8%. You can't sit in cash. I don't care what the conventional wisdom is. It's more critical than ever that you get a return on your money. For all the volatility right now, the question is always what market is getting hit? Not all markets are getting hit. Technology, growth, all of things we warned you about on this podcast are getting decimated right now. However, if you look at old school value stocks... Berkshire Hathaway is up this year, it's in positive return. Our value portfolios are barely down for the year and of course those commodities are finally going through the roof. What it comes down to is you've got to have a portfolio that addresses a lot of issues and cash just doesn't do that. 

This week on the tipping point: Setting goals

We spend a lot of time helping people with their goal setting. We also spend a lot of time thinking about how to help people articulate and envision what they want for their life and their financial independence. Today we will talk about psychology and what you want to think about when it comes to creating your own realistic and achievable financial goals. We will share the process that we use to help our clients come to the conclusion of what they want financially. 

When it comes to pain points, this is absolutely the most important one there is, and that is achieving financial independence. 

It's a very personal thing. It's something that you have to understand what it looks like for you. It's not a rule of thumb and it's not what your neighbor is doing. It's your unique financial independent picture. Do you know what it looks like?

This week’s hidden facts of finance

• Russia is the world's third-largest producer of oil. Who’s #1?
• 35 years ago this month U2 released Joshua Tree
• Longest closing of Wall Street on record
• Who showed up 12 days late to the 1908 Olympics in London?

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What's up! It's episode 74 of Payne Points of Wealth, Russia is moving further into Ukraine and markets are going haywire. The volatility's extreme right now. We know the FED is raising interest rates next month but what does this mean right now? Is it time to go to cash or is it time to take advantage of the volatility to create your wealth long term? We're gonna break it down for you from our vantage point. We're also going to talk about annuities today. Annuities aren't bought they're sold. Is it a good investment or a bad investment to have in your portfolio for your path to financial independence? We'll give you our thoughts on that as well.

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

• It's the surprises that you don't anticipate that move everything [1:48]
• The tech wreck [5:03]
• Why we are so optimistic [7:11]
• The Tipping Point [9:27]
• To get something you have to give something [12:14]
• Annuities are horrible inflation hedges [15:24
• Hidden Facts of Finance [19:40]

Why we're so optimistic

Look at what happened in New York this week. They said no more masks and no more Vax ID cards! You're allowed to live your life again. The economy is going to boom. People are flush with cash and they're tired of being stuck in. People are going to get back to traveling. The economy's going to keep booming. The supply chains will eventually become unclogged and what happens is the market looks forward. 

When you look at prices going down right now, it's what I call price adjustment. It's a math problem. Interest rates are going to be higher, inflation's higher. You put that into the equation. You get a different answer. It's lower. But you know what we don't hear on the financial news at all? The PE ratio on the S&P 500 is very reasonable right now. NIt's a good time to be buying. Not panicking. 

This week on the tipping point: Annuities

We're going through a period now where it's very different, the last 40 years have been low inflation, actually a deflationary environment but now we're seeing inflation. Hopefully, we don't go back to the hyperinflation of the 70s. It was horrible, you can't imagine how bad it was, but we just had a 7.5% year over year rate on the CPI. That could see 8% on the next report and inflation is the biggest issue. It's the biggest risk every investor has in their portfolio right now. Annuities are horrible in terms of inflation hedges. 

Once you get that fixed income and you give up your principle, you get the same amount every single year. Yet your cost of living is going up every year. That means the amount you're getting each month $5,000, $10,000, whatever, in tomorrow’s dollars it's like getting half because it doesn't adjust with inflation. 

Meanwhile, a diversified portfolio with bonds, dividend-paying stocks, the cash flow over time is increasing exponentially to keep up with inflation. In fact, if you look at stock dividends, they've increased over the inflation rate since 1950. So annuities don't solve for the most important, most critical aspect of your financial independence plan and that is inflation.

This week’s hidden facts of finance

• The 15 managers with the highest performing funds in 2021 raked in a collective 15.8 billion last year!
• The global value of crypto grew by nearly 1.5 trillion last year, compared with the S&P 500’s rise to nearly 9 trillion market value.
• 75% of 2020 SPACs traded at or below $10
• 25 years ago Bowie bonds were issued on the US Stock Exchange

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What's up! It's episode 73 of Payne Points of Wealth and the sky is literally falling, as we're recording this Russia is invading Ukraine. We've got financial conditions tightening as global banks around the world are raising interest rates. Is this the end? Are we going to a big, BIG bear market? Are we going into recession? Or is this the buying opportunity of a lifetime? We're going to give you our 2¢ on that. We're also going to tell you exactly what to do with your money. 

On the tipping point today, we have a special guest, Frankie Lagrotteria, and we'll talk about almighty income. You need income for your financial independence plan but how do you create that income? How do you create an income plan where you don't run out of money? We're going to give you our playbook. Check it out!

 

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

• Will the Russian invasion of Ukraine affect the market? [1:08]
• The gift that keeps on giving [4:36]
• Living through the manias [8:15]
• The Tipping Point [10:52]
• The biggest challenge with creating income [12:58]
• Sweat equity vs passive income [14:23]
• Hidden Facts of Finance [20:25]

Bear market or a correction

The best thing in the world is that we live in the great old US-of-A! Look at the people in Ukraine being subjected to this aggression from Russia. As investors we have to look at what's going to happen to the markets as a result of this. History tells us that regional conflicts, unless they end up turning us into a world war, do not bring us to a bear market. 

This is a correction, not a bear market. We didn't go to a bear market after Afghanistan, or Iraq, or Korea, or Vietnam. Only after World War II started. It is a regional conflict. If you look at the GDP of all of Russia, it's about the size of Texas and Ukraine is even smaller than that. At the end of the day, if you look at these geopolitical issues that we've had in the past, usually things work themselves out and eventually investors start looking at what's going on in the economy. And right now the economy is good!

This week on the tipping point: Income

One thing we've found at our firm Payne Capital Management, with the thousand or so relationships we have, is that one of the most critical components to your financial independence plan is income. You hear a lot of talk about income. How do you generate income? What's a good income? What's a bad income? How do you equate for inflation? 

The cornerstone of any financial independence plan is that you're generating enough income that you can live on it. So in today's episode with special guest Frankie Lagrotteria we will do a deep dive today into understanding what kind of income you can produce on your portfolio to give yourself that freedom that we're all thinking about when we're investing our money. Check out the episode for all the tips!

This week’s hidden facts of finance

• Fights to space booking now! Check it out here!
• New movies, Jack Ass & Scream, killing it at the box office! 
• Pink Floyd’s album Dark Side of the Moon has been on Billboard's Top 200 Album chart for 962 weeks! More than any other album ever!
• Did you know Google was not the original name for Google?

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What's up! It's episode 72 of Payne Points of Wealth and we have the three R's right now, 'Russian', 'Repricing', and 'Rates', you’ll want to listen to hear what that’s all about. The market isn't going anywhere fast as it's trying to find its footing. We're going to give you our outlook for what we think is going on right now and how you should position your portfolio. On the Tipping Point today, I know you're not watching the Olympics—nobody's watching the Olympics, but we're gonna talk about the Financial Olympics to make sure that you can be financially independent. Go check it out!

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

• The 3 R’s [1:04]
• Investors fear uncertainty [5:51]
• The Tipping Point [9:26]
• Inflation marathon [10:47]
• Recession hurdles [11:29]
• Hidden fee toss [13:21]
• Portfolio balance beam [16:30]
• Synchronized planning [18:54]
• Hidden Facts of Finance [21:48]

Value trumps growth in the current market

Investors fear the uncertainty of what can happen in the future. They price in more of a pessimistic outlook and once that fear is realized, they say, "oh wait, that wasn't so bad. The economy's still booming. I'm still living my life. I'm still spending." So inflation is something that we're fearful of because it's skyrocketing right now. But remember the biggest cure for higher prices is higher prices. 

The market isn't selling off. One specific market is selling off. It's those growth stocks and if you look at growth specifically right now, that's taking the brunt of any selling. Value stocks, any company that has pricing power in this new environment of higher prices where they can raise their prices and their customers are willing to pay those higher prices, their earnings look awesome!

This week on the tipping point: Financial Planning Olympics

Viewership for the Olympics is down big right now but I thought we could talk about something more exciting than the Winter Olympics and that's the Financial Planning Olympics and how we can equate the Olympics to some of the financial planning issues that we've come across in our firm. A lot of managing money or getting people to financial independence is similar to being in the Olympics. 

When we think about the summer Olympics and running we think about the inflation marathon. That's the thing about inflation, it's like death by a thousand cuts. If you look at it historically every 20 years, your purchasing power is cut in half, every million dollars you have today is only worth half a million dollars over the next 20 years. That's very problematic when you're trying to be financially independent.

Another event in the Financial Olympics is the recession hurdles. It's those blocks that the economy puts in your way, on the way to making your free financial goals. Things like recessions, bear markets, hyperinflation, all those things can disrupt your portfolio if you're not properly invested.

Check out the episode to hear about some of the other Financial Planning Olympic events like Hidden fee toss, Portfolio balance beam, and Synchronized planning. 

This week’s hidden facts of finance

• Median housing price between 2006 and 2021
• 35% of the stock bought by Robin hood users are concentrated in 10 companies compared with at least 24% by retail investors
• Queen’s greatest hits collection was so popular in the UK that one in every three British families now owns a copy
• Prosecutors charged a New York couple with conspiring to launder proceeds of 119,000 Bitcoin valued at 4.5 billion

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What's up! It's episode 71 Payne Points of Wealth and markets are trying to find their footing as unemployment is coming down. More people are getting jobs, labor participation rates are going up. The FED? We have no idea what the FED is going to do. They're keeping it a secret. All the while we're seeing wages go up, we're seeing productivity in the economy go up, and we're seeing pessimism amongst investors. What does it all mean? We're going to break it down for you today and we're going to talk about one of our favorite Americans Ben Franklin. A Great Philadelphian. What he said back in the day that you can apply to your finances to make sure you're on track for your plan for financial independence.

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

• How tough is the FED going to be on inflation? [1:07]
• The cure for higher prices is actually higher prices [3:31]
• One end of the Seasaw goes up, the other end goes down [5:54]
• The Tipping Point [9:20]
• A penny saved is a penny earned [12:18]
• He that lives upon hope will die fasting [14:30]
• There are no gains without pains [16:24]
• Hidden Facts of Finance [21:32]

The cure for inflation

The cure for higher prices is actually higher prices. Right now the consumer doesn't seem to care about price. You're paying $3.50 a gallon at the gas pump, depending on what state you live in, but it's not hurting demand. As a percentage of income, it's not as bad as it's been in the past. We still see that demand. But if prices keep spiraling higher, people are going to stop spending. If it gets too costly, they're going to tell you, they're going to let the retailers know, no more. Right now what I think you are going to see happen is you have inflation, especially price increases. Higher prices will take care of themselves. Inflation will take care of itself. And because we have productivity, this economy will continue to rock because companies are being very innovative. 

This week on the tipping point: Ben Frankiln{isms}

Investment in knowledge pays the best interest. Know what you own and why you own it. You should be able to explain each and every investment to your grandchild in less than five seconds. And if you can't, that means your portfolio is too complex and you better have a financial advisor you can trust.

Another Benjamin Franklin quote is a penny saved is a penny earned. You can apply this to a lot of you that are looking to retire probably sooner than later. The best time the start investing and saving is when you start making any money at all, it doesn't matter what age you are.

He that lives upon hope will die fasting. This goes to that whole mindset that hope is not a strategy. Basically, it means is that you don't want to just wish your portfolio to do well. You have to make good conscious decisions about how you're investing your money.

Another great Ben Franklin expression is there are no gains without pains. You have to suffer some volatility, there's no reward without risk.

This week’s hidden facts of finance

• Taylor swift has 8 different albums charting on the Billboard 200 album chart, a huge amount for any artist. but Prince holds the all-time record.
• Global oil demand is fully recovered, nearing a hundred million barrels per day.
• The probability of success when day trading is only slightly better than flipping a coin.
• Hackers targeted two firms that thousands of public companies use to make electronic filings with us securities and exchange commission.

Resources & People Mentioned

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What's up! It's episode 70 of Payne Points of Wealth. The year is starting off with lots of uncertainty about the Fed. What are they going to do with interest rates? You've got every firm out there predicting that it's going to be apocalypse now with interest rates being hiked seven, eight times, heck even nine times! Who knows! But what does that mean for the markets? Is the economy slowing? Is it slowing too much? Are we going to see that recession that we're hearing about every single week? We're going to tell you exactly what our playbook is to invest and what you should be thinking about, and how to allocate your portfolio. On the Tipping Point today, we're going to talk about a lot of things that we hear you say, (that you shouldn't be saying) when you're trying to be financially independent. We're going to point it out and get you on the right path to financial independence.

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

• No one wants to catch a falling knife [1:17]
• Short term volatility doesn't equal what's going on in the economy [5:24]
• The Tipping Point [9:07]
• It comes down to having the right financial advisor [12:22]
• If I just had a million dollars [15:23]
• Hidden Facts of Finance [18:45]

Keep your eye on the long term prize

Keep in mind that correction is merely that, it's not a substantial change in the direction of the economy. We just had really good numbers come in from November and December in housing and retail sales. About 170 companies have reported earnings so far for the quarter and 77% have beat analysts' expectations. That GDP number came in a lot higher than anybody anticipated. So the economy is still very, very strong. Short-term volatility doesn't necessarily equal exactly what's going on in the economy. Keep your eye on the prize. Don't let all this noise get you out of your long-term portfolio. 

This week on the tipping point: Phrases people say

We probably look at over 50 portfolios a month. It's very typical to hear people say a lot of the same things. “When will I be in good enough financial shape to retire?” “Can I afford this?” “If I only had a million dollars I’d be able to retire comfortably.” Are these phrases right? Are they wrong? Part of it is probably that people just want to hear someone say that it looks okay because when it's just you, left to your own devices self-talk sometimes can you put us in a really negative place and we don't see the big picture. 

People are afraid to sit down and do planning because they don't want to know that the answer is bad. More than not, even if you're not there yet and you can't be financially independent tomorrow if you just start you're going to get there sooner than you think. 

This week’s hidden facts of finance

• The median home price in 1960 was $11,900. In 2021 the average new home price was $453,000! 
• The cost of acquiring the rights to use the Beatles music in the film Yesterday was around 10 million, 40% of the total movie cost.
• In 1932 wooden bills were temporarily made and used in Tenino, Washington because there was a major cash shortage at the time and wood was readily available.

Resources & People Mentioned

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It's episode 69 of Payne Points of Wealth and markets are literally falling apart right now! Are we going into a bear market? Is this the end? There are a lot of economists calling for a recession. 

We went through a period in the last couple of years where the hottest stocks in the market were something called pre-revenue companies. In other words, they weren't making any money, but they got all the money from newbie investors, investing in innovation and disruption. Well, we are seeing disruptive technology getting destroyed, whether it's Bitcoin, Peloton, or Tesla it’s getting destroyed. The lesson learned… invest in companies that make money and better yet pay dividends.

Are you afraid of retirement? Do you think you can retire? Are you afraid that you can't be financially independent? What do you do with your money now? Should you be sitting in cash? We're going to address all of those issues in this episode! Check it out! 

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

• The tale of two markets [2:05]
• Tightening and loosening conditions in overseas markets [6:53]
• The Tipping Point [11:07]
• Being bored in retirement [13:47]
• Lack of confidence in your ability to retire [17:43]
• Hidden Facts of Finance [20:49]

Monday morning quarterbacks of the market

It sounds so sexy, right? The market's selling off, you're getting to cash, you think you're being proactive and protecting yourself. Markets change on a dime. Markets can rebound very quickly too and if you're sitting in cash, you missed the boat. That's why timing the market, in general, is treacherous! It's the worst thing you can do. 

Then there are these pundits on Wall Street, these economists, they were so rosy with their outlook coming into the beginning of the year. All of a sudden the market sells off over a two-week period and we're hearing we're going to a recession. We've been talking about how tech stocks make no money and they're gonna go down. They're always playing money morning quarterback. They don't say this stuff before it happens. They always tell you after it happens, which has no value.

This week on the tipping point: Why do we say we don't want to retire when (maybe) we actually do?

When doing financial planning for clients we have found that when we hear “I don’t want to retire” it doesn’t always mean clients don’t actually want to retire. Sometimes it means you love your job and don’t want to go from 100 to ZERO. Other times it means you don’t know if you can afford to retire. The fear of being without a paycheck is very real for many people. There are also a lot of things that can happen that can take the choice away. Our solution is to not talk about the “wanting” to retire but setting your financial independence date. That point when you can decide to do whatever you want and your paycheck doesn’t get a vote!

The stress and anxiety of worrying about money leads to other health issues so knowing that you're financially independent, knowing that you don't need to work is also a huge benefit in the long run and will promote even more longevity. 

This week’s hidden facts of finance

• China racked up a record $676 billion trade surplus for 2021, a 60% jump from the pre-pandemic year of 2019.
• The average number of books read per year is down to 12.6, a drop from 15.2 in 2016.
• 44 years ago the Saturday Night Fever soundtrack started a 24 week run at #1 then went on to sell over 30 million copies worldwide, making it the best-selling soundtrack of all time.
• Wage inflation is real! CEO of Goldman Sachs says he needed to boost pay by 4.4 billion or 33% to remain competitive.

Resources & People Mentioned

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Here it is, mid-January 2022 and we’re watching the markets sell off and interest rates skyrocket. The big question on everyone’s minds: Will inflation cool off the market and the economy? As a result, will we go into a recession because the FED is becoming too aggressive, too late? This episode is going to give you our take on the state of the economy, the markets, and our recommended investment strategies in light of what’s going on.

And on our “Tipping Point” segment: We see lots of financial catastrophes in our line of work and we encourage you to ask this question, seriously: “Are you headed toward the rocks because you’re failing to plan appropriately?” We’ve got some important things for you to consider, so be sure you listen!

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

• What a difference a year makes… the market is going down daily [1:22]
• The traditional hedge for inflation that truly works (it’s not Bitcoin) [5:09]
• The Tipping Point: Oversights that cause financial catastrophe [10:30]
• Hidden Facts of Finance [21:22]

The big correction never comes when people think it will

None of what’s happening this year in terms of inflation and economic strength is much of a surprise. Growth is still going to be solid, unemployment is going down and wages are going up, so the overall economy looks pretty good. But the market hates uncertainty. The FED is letting everyone else leak information about what the FED is going to do, and not saying anything themselves. As a result, the market isn’t responding well. Bob’s advice is that you shouldn’t trust the FED to do what’s in your interest. You can learn a lot from history. For example, old-school stocks and commodities are great options. Learn how to understand what’s really going on behind the scenes (listening to this podcast will help) and what history tells us, resist the urge to panic and cause yourself more trouble, and stick to the fundamentals.

This week on the tipping point: How Financial Catastrophe Occurs

Much of the time financial catastrophe during retirement happens because of things that are overlooked by those trying to plan for their financial future. What sort of things are overlooked?

INFLATION PLANNING: After doing thousands of financial plans for clients, with the average age of those clients being between 40 and 60 years old, so we have a couple of decades of inflation to figure in. At its long-term average, expenses double every 20 years. We see this missed quite often.

ASSUMING EXPENSES WILL GO DOWN IN RETIREMENT: Many of our clients are not worried about the impact of inflation because they assume their living expenses will go down during retirement, Worse, they assume they will be able to cut back on what they spend. But most people don’t and healthcare costs can often cause expenses to stay the same or even go up. This is a big oversight.

TAX PLANNING MISTAKES: The worst kind of “gifting” that you can do is when you gift Uncle Sam more than he’s owed through ignoring your tax situation. Every tax deferred investment you have (IRAs, 401k, etc.) is going to have a “Required Minimum Distribution” during your retirement years. If you don’t plan for that certainty, the income you receive from those RMDs could become a Weapon of Mass Destruction in your financial future because of how it impacts your tax liability through increased income.

RETIRING TOO EARLY: Many retirees are forced to go back to work after they retire because they’ve underestimated the cost of living during retirement. But with a financial plan that includes wealth projections, you can plan for potential shortfalls. Many Advisors out there are winging it, not giving their clients the tools they need to accurately plan for their future. It’s terrible to get to 75 years old and have to go job-hunting.

We have other tips to share with you on this episode, so be sure to listen. This could make the difference between a comfortable, appropriate retirement and one in which you struggle.

This week’s hidden facts of finance

• A otherworldly jewel will be auctioned next month ($6.8m compared)
• TikTok influencers are making bank. Compared to CEOs, it’s unbelievable
• The global value of equities is $121 trillion
• Touring artists are making incredible revenue

Resources & People Mentioned

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TODAY’S GUEST: CFP Aaron Dessin — follow Aaron on LinkedIn

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On episode 194 of the Payne Points of Wealth, Bob & Ryan sit down with John Catsimatidis, a man whose journey from humble beginnings to billionaire status is nothing short of inspirational. Born on the Greek island of Nisyros and arriving in the United States as an infant, Catsimatidis’ story is a testament to the power of perseverance, hard work, and vision.

 

Join us as we explore how Catsimatidis built his empire, starting with grocery chains in Manhattan, expanding into the realms of real estate, oil, aviation, and radio through his Red Apple Group. Discover the challenges John faced and the strategies he employed to become one of the most successful American businessmen of all time. We’ll also discuss his political aspirations, including a bid for the Republican nomination for mayor of New York City in 2013.

 

Tune in as we delve into the extraordinary life of John Catsimatidis, a man who turned his dreams into reality and became a billionaire against seemingly impossible odds. This episode is a must-listen for anyone seeking motivation and insight into the mind of a self-made success.

What's up! It's episode 67 of Payne Points of Wealth, and the FED is going to release its triple threat as they taper their bond-buying. As they're going to start to unload their balance sheet and raise interest rates, maybe four times this year, it looks like the world has changed. What do you do now? We’ve got the market going up. We’ve got strategists telling you that we're going to get a big correction in the stock market. Are you going to get it? We'll unravel it for you, tell you exactly what we think about this year, and what you should do with your portfolio. On the Tipping Point today, we're going to give you some of our more common sense, practical philosophies that you need to be applying to your financial plan right now.

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

• Resigning to the fact that things are going to cost more [1:53]
• Dividend yields [5:58]
• The Tipping Point [9:32]
• Are you set up to weather the storm? [12:34]
• Hidden Facts of Finance [16:56]

What year are we in?

Inflation is the highest it has been in 40 years, oil is through the roof, we have a Jimmy Carter-like president in the White House, it’s like we’re in 1982! Here's the thing you have to remember, back in 1982 when we had this high inflation rate, inflation started to go up and we had the beginning of the greatest bull market in history, the S&P and the Dow. Let's say the Dow was at 800 it's now closing in on 36,000. Just keep that in mind, things looked really dire in 1982 and if you sat on the sidelines, you missed out on one heck of a move!

This week on the tipping point: Underrated, simple philosophies you can use

At our firm, Payne Capital Management, we have a mantra we have used for years: simplicity over complexity. We know we're in an industry that loves to sell products that are complicated, financial strategies that are high in fees that no one even understands that don't even end up working out that well.

The number one rule we have with every portfolio, whether it's a 401k, IRA, joint account, you name it, we want every single investment in that portfolio to be liquid. So liquid that you can call any day and we can have all of your money in your checking account the next day. 

Knowing what you own is as important as being able to access it! You have to put your portfolio into the stress test. It's not about when things are good. What you always have to think about is when things go bad, and they will, is am I set up to weather the storm. When the getting is good it’s hard to see those pitfalls. Check out the episode for more simple underrated philosophies you can use with your wealth plan. 

This week’s hidden facts of finance

• The US suffered three periods of hyperinflation in the 20th century. One following each world war and then the great inflation in the 1970s.
• Evercore ISA calculates that the US M2 money supply has increased by an astounding 41% over the last two years.
• Warner Music just bought David Bowie's songbook for a reported $250 million.
• S&P 500's top 10 holdings represent nearly 1/3 of the index's return last year, even though the fund has 508 holdings.

Resources & People Mentioned

See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes

Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris

• http://PayneCM.com 
• Follow on Twitter
• Follow on Facebook
• Follow on LinkedIn
• Subscribe on YouTube
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Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

As the new year comes in, the economy is FULL of economic news you need to know. The Federal Reserve is more hawkish than ever with some unprecedented moves, tech stocks are being hit hard, interest rates are soaring, and oil prices are rising — all things that we predicted were going to happen to a large degree.

How can you start the year off right with your financial plan? On this episode we’re going to tell you, including how to dig into your portfolio and assess how your biggest financial assets are likely being underutilized.

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

• There’s been a lot of volatility in the markets as the year’s begun [1:20]
• The Tipping Point: The right decisions for your biggest assets [10:35]
• Hidden Facts of Finance [19:35]

As 2022 dawns our predictions are coming true

What we expected has come to pass here at the beginning of the year: The FED is playing catch up. It’s been announced that the Federal Reserve will continue to taper off its bond purchases. It’s also been announced that interest rates will be going up. One last thing, the FED will begin taking money from the balance sheet to sell bonds. We saw all of this coming and told you about it in previous episodes. What we didn’t see is that the FED is doing all of this at the same time. The job market is a mess as well. Many people don’t want to get back to work after the pandemic because they are still living on the government handouts that were implemented. Others who are in the job market are demanding incredibly high wages. The bottom line is that dynamics we’ve seen this past year are changing going into the new year. 

This week on the tipping point: What assets are you taking for granted? 

As you look at your portfolio here at the beginning of the year, you should consider your biggest assets in terms of whether you’re using them most effectively. One example is your 401(k) — it’s typically one of the largest assets in an investor’s portfolio and is not managed effectively. On top of that, 401(k)s can be cumbersome to manage, don’t provide all the tools or stock choices you need, and can also be designed with blatant conflicts of interest in them as companies use them to promote their own stock. You must be very strategic with your 401(k).

You should also consider whether your home (real estate) is doing everything it could for you, especially if you have two homes. Is it time to downsize or refinance that high-interest mortgage? It’s a seller’s market, so this could be the time. As well, look into the expenses required to maintain your home (or 2nd home). Could that money be put into better investments that can increase your cash flow or income?

Don’t miss this episode! We cover a lot of items you don’t want to be in the dark about. 

This week’s hidden facts of finance

• Florida’s population has mushroomed
• NFTs (Non Fungible Tokens) have become a head-scratching asset class
• Traditional carbon-based energy use is already at 2019 levels for the year
• The S&P has no “in-between”

Resources & People Mentioned

See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes

• ARK Innovation Fund

Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris

• http://PayneCM.com 
• Follow on Twitter
• Follow on Facebook
• Follow on LinkedIn
• Subscribe on YouTube
• Follow on Instagram

Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

As we wrap up the year we’re seeing lot’s of interesting stuff… The FED Chairman is talking like a Dove but beginning to act like a Hawk. Is that a Dawk? Just watch, you’ll see that term springing up in common parlance and remember, you heard it here first! Inflation is running hot but it’s not going to stay that way. We’ll tell you why on this episode. 

AND.. on this episode’s “Tipping Point” you’ll hear Bob and Chris explain which of my suggested “Financial Stocking Stuffers” go to those who are on the “naughty” list, and which go to those on the “nice” list. 

You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...

• CPI and PPI both well above the estimates [1:22]
• Trends can turn quickly and badly [6:47]
• The Tipping Point: Year End Stocking Stuffers [8:09]]
• Hidden Facts of Finance [18:54]

Inflation is high but is destined to drop

This past year we’ve had lots of issues in the market but none as big as the supply chain. It’s been a mess all the way around. Some of it has to do with the semiconductor shortage, there’s also the labor shortage sparked by the government tax credits, etc. Those are driving inflation higher, but we have to remember… As time goes on, many of those problems will be fixed. One example: Intel is building TWO semiconductor plants in Alabama over the next year. They are not going to be caught dependent on foreign manufacturing again. We’ve also got a big problem in the labor market. There are more jobs than can be filled (greatest gap ever) and many who are employed are switching jobs to get a better wage. But in time, all of this will settle down and we are going to see how those with truly diversified portfolios are going to weather all the weirdness just fine.

This week on the tipping point: Year-End Financial Stocking Stuffers

Gifts for those on the “nice” list

Fiduciary: Anytime a financial advisor is legally bound to work in your best interest as their client, it’s a winner. They won’t steer you wrong.

Long term care insurance: The cost of medical care becomes higher as you age. Long term care insurance isn’t a bad idea, if you watch your premiums and run the numbers to ensure you’re still getting the best deal. Premiums can increase astronomically the longer you hold them. You must run the math to ensure it’s to your benefit.

Gifts for those on the “naughty” list

An annuity: Any so-called investment that comes from an insurance company is not to be trusted. Most of the time the fees are too high and what you receive is not comparable to what you pay.

S&P 500: The S&P 500 is not what it used to be. Seven companies make up 25% of the index, which means you’re not getting true diversification if all you invest in is the S&P 500. And it’s a lot riskier than you think because you’re not getting full exposure to all 500 of the stocks. 

High Yield Bonds: The main selling point is that these bonds pay a great rate of interest but because they are so risky, you may not get your money back. Think about it: companies that have to borrow at a high rate are unable to get financing at lower interest rates. That means they are risky. 

Whole Life Insurance: Typically Whole Life works in reverse of what you really need. Don’t be fooled by the two-benefits-for-the-price-of-one sales pitch.

This week’s hidden facts of finance

• 26% of U.S. investors have Crypto holdings
• 48 top execs have collected more than $200M each from stock sales
• 45 years ago this month, “Hotel California” was released (7th biggest selling album)
• Apple: 44 years to reach $1T 2 years later, $2T 15 months later, zeroing in on $3T 

Resources & People Mentioned

See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes

• The Ark Investment ETF

Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris

• http://PayneCM.com 
• Follow on Twitter
• Follow on Facebook
• Follow on LinkedIn
• Subscribe on YouTube
• Follow on Instagram

Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify