The wave of sectarian violence that gripped Syria last week has marred the image of the country's new Islamist president, Ahmad al-Sharaa.

Could the government have done more to prevent it? French academic Fabrice Balanche says it absolutely could have.

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Israel's expansionist policy in Syria's Golan Heights and its support for the Druze and Kurdish minorities are justified by Israeli officials on the grounds that they are protecting natural allies and countering Turkish influence. Yet Syria expert Joshua Landis says Israel's actions are having the opposite effect, making Syria's new Islamist leaders more dependent on Turkey for their protection.

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Jim Jeffrey, the director of the Middle East Program at the Wilson Center and former Syria Envoy under the first Trump administration, says in his new term Trump could pull US forces out of Syria.

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Elizabeth Hagedorn, Al-Monitor State Department Correspondent, and Andrew give their takes on US Iran Envoy Rob Malley’s testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, why the Iran nuclear deal still has a pulse, the turnaround in US-Saudi relations, and US President Joe Biden’s upcoming travel to the Middle East.

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It’s often said that the Kurds are the world’s largest nation without a state. Yet, in the Middle East they play an outsized role, helping Western powers advance their security goals sometimes at the cost of their relations with their own allies such as Turkey. Giran Ozcan explains why the United States needs to think of the Kurds as a standalone policy issue in its own right.

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Mirza Dinnayi, 2019 Aurora Prize Laureate for Awakening Humanity & Founder of House of Coexistence in Sinjar, explains how and why Sinjar has become a regional dispute involving Turkey, Syria and Iran, as well as Iraq; the culture, history and geography of the Yazidi community; the impact of the ISIS genocidal campaign; why Yazidis seek some autonomy within Iraq; and more!  

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Al-Monitor columnist Daoud Kuttab discusses the background to the confrontations at the Al-Aqsa Mosque and what comes next, whether Hamas is gaining in the West Bank, Palestinian perceptions of the Israeli Arab Raam Party, and more!

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Steve Clemons, Founding Editor At Large of Semafor, discusses why the Russia-Ukraine war has not boosted Biden’s ‘Trump-level’ popularity; reasons for American fatigue with global security commitments; the missing ‘realists’ and anti-war Democrats in Congress; why some Middle East elites may perceive an ‘America on crutches;’ the challenges of managing US-Saudi ties; the barriers to a US-Iran nuclear deal; why bipartisanship in the Senate still has a pulse; an update on the new global media company Semafor; and much more.

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Turkey was at the forefront of an international campaign to name and shame the perpetrators of the 2018 murder in Istanbul of Saudi dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Ankara has just dropped a case to try 26 Saudi officials who allegedly took their orders from Saudi Arabia’s crown prince Mohamed bin Salman. The consensus is thatAnkara did so to fix relations with Saudi Arabia and the powerful crown prince who it once sought to pull down.  

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Al-Monitor columnist Kadri Gursel discusses the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on Turkey’s economy and domestic politics; why Turkey is well-positioned as mediator between Kyiv and Moscow; why the purchase of the S-400 was ‘a consequence of distress’ and ‘doomed to fail;’ Turkey’s policies toward Syria and the Kurds; whether Erdogan and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman can bury the hatchet; why the 2023 elections will be a ‘remarkable example’’ for Turkey’s democratic transition; and more!

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Elizabeth Hagedorn, Al-Monitor State Department Correspondent, and Andrew discuss the terrorist attacks in Israel; the Middle East reaction to the Ukraine war; the prospects for an Iran nuclear deal; and the wars in Yemen and Syria.

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Abdulaziz Sager, chairman and founder of the Gulf Research Center, discusses the challenges to US-Saudi relations; why he does not necessarily expect an Iran nuclear deal to lead to progress in Yemen; why de-listing the IRGC as a terrorist group could embolden Iran in the region; how the Gulf is balancing relations among the US, Russia, and China; why a state solution remains Saudi Arabia’s approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict; and more. 

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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is set to have cascading effects in Syria, where the Kremlin has been propping up the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Faced with crippling sanctions and major setbacks in its campaign in Ukraine, Russia may soon be unable to devote the kind of resources to Syria that helped Assad wrest back huge chunks of rebel-held territory. 

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Human Rights Watch’s Turkey director, Emma Sinclair Webb, analyzes new legislation targeting journalists and civil society and the ouster of Kurdish mayors. The new wave of repression is being greeted with silence by Turkey's western allies.

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Mark Fitzpatrick, Associate Fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, explains why the Iran nuclear agreement, while not ‘ideal’, remains a good one for the US, the region, and nuclear nonproliferation; why lifting the terrorist designation on the IRGC may be a ‘false issue’; why the remaining US citizens imprisoned in Iran should be part of the final package; and more.

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Dimitri Simes, President and CEO of the Center for the National Interest and Publisher of its foreign policy magazine, The National Interest, discusses the prospects for a diplomatic solution in Ukraine; the risks of miscalculation and escalation for both Russia and the West; why Russia’s stance on the JCPOA emboldens Tehran; how China could come out a winner from the crisis; and more!

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Samuel Charap, senior political Scientist at RAND Corporation and top expert on Russia and Ukraine, discusses Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the Western response; what Russia learned, or didn’t learn, from Russia’s military intervention in Syria; what Putin expects from China, India and the Middle East; why Russia still backs an Iran nuclear deal; whether and when Russia might consider cyber or nuclear weapons; why those advocating regime change in Russia should be careful what they wish for; and why the lack of diplomatic offramps so far foreshadows a more ominous future for Russia, Ukraine and the international system.

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The murder last month of a transgender woman in Iraqi Kurdistan by her brother in a so-called honor killing underlines the impunity faced by the LGBT community in Iraq’s Kurdistan region and beyond. Community activists say the government does nothing to protect them and that security officials who are responsible for their safety are among those who endorse violence against them. Zhiar Ali a leading advocate for the community was forced to flee to Europe after facing repeated threats. With no laws to protect him and hostility against LGBT people deeply engrained they face an uphill struggle. But they won’t give up.

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Dr. Volker Perthes, Special Representative of the UN Secretary General for Sudan, discusses the role of UN diplomacy, as well as the impact of the October 25, 2021 coup and the Ethiopian civilian war on Sudan’s transition.

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Amy Myers Jaffe, Managing Director of the Climate Policy Lab at The Fletcher School at Tufts University, discusses the Gulf carbon-zero commitments; Egypt’s renewable energy ambitions; the geopolitics of hydrogen; the prospects for LNG markets; Iran, Russia and global oil prices; China’s role in the Middle East; and the prospects for nuclear power.

Gulf rethinks climate diplomacy - Al-Monitor: The Pulse of the Middle East

Egypt hands over solar power plant to Uganda amid Nile dam crisis - Al-Monitor: The Pulse of the Middle East

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As US led diplomacy fails to de-escalate tensions with Russia over Ukraine, Turkey with its drones and unequivocal support for Ukraine's territorial integrity is seen as a solid ally.

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HE Sayyid Badr bin Hamad bin Hamood Albusaidi , Foreign Minister of the Sultanate of Oman, discusses Sultan Haitham’s Vision 2040; regional security and diplomacy including Iran, Yemen, Syria, the Abraham Accords, and GCC reconciliation; and the resilience of Omanis in dealing with COVID 19, and Cyclone Shaheen.

Middle East economic outlook hinges on vaccinations - Al-Monitor: The Pulse of the Middle East

Sultan Qaboos’ environmental legacy hits economic roadblock in Oman - Al-Monitor: The Pulse of the Middle East

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Janine di Giovanni, award winning journalist and Senior Fellow and Professor at Yale University’s Jackson Institute for Global Affairs, discusses her book, The Vanishing: Faith Loss and the Twilight of Christianity in the Land of the Prophets, her own journey of faith as a journalist covering conflict in the Middle East, and the resilience of Christian communities throughout the region.

https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2022/01/last-christian-idlib-recalls-his-community

https://edition.cnn.com/videos/tv/2021/12/18/exp-1226-janine-di-giovanni-christians-vanishing.cnn

https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2021/12/gaza-christmas-bleak-outlook

https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2021/12/lost-history-gazas-jewish-quarter

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Bijan Khajehpour, managing partner at Eurasian Nexus Partners and Al-Monitor columnist, explains how Iran’s economic potential, and the prospects for foreign investment, depend on sanctions relief which would result from a nuclear deal; Raisi’s progress on COVID vaccinations; Iran’s relationships with Russia and China; and an update on Siamak Namazi, unjustly detained six years in Iran.

https://amwaj.media/article/budget-1401

https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2021/12/how-feasible-raisis-economic-roadmap-iran

https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2022/01/irans-days-rage-soleimani-anniversary-have-their-limits

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The government of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is holding exploratory talks with Abdullah Ocalan, the imprisoned leader of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party or PKK, to end the 40-year-old Kurdish conflict. Turkey has made clear its expectation that the PKK lay down its arms and end the conflict. What would it take for the PKK to comply? Giran Ozcan, executive director of the Kurdish Peace Institute in Washington, believes Turkey needs to grant its estimated 16 million Kurds basic rights such as being able to teach and learn their long banned mother tongue if the effort is to succeed.

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The Kurdistan Regional Government of Iraq has sealed a critical border crossing to the US protected and Kurdish governed zone in northeast Syria over a violent clash between a Syrian Kurdish youth organization and Iraqi Kurdish border forces. The closure has interrupted the flow of aid to the region as northeast Syria grapples with the effects of US sanctions against the Syrian regime, and of the COVID 19 pandemic not mention its worst drought in decades

Analyst Hiwa Osman explains what is at stake.

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Libya was supposed to hold elections on December 24 that were meant to help the war wracked North African nation move on the path of stability and national reconciliation. But continued rivalries between numerous factions exacerbated by foreign meddling forced a cancellation. North Africa expert Jalel Harchaoui describes what's at stake.

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Sanam Vakil, deputy director of the Middle East North Africa programme at Chatham House, assesses the Iranian nuclear talks, including the roles of Russia, China, and Israel; Iran’s long game in Iraq and Yemen; the prospects for regional security in the Gulf; how Iran is managing the Taliban-led government in Afghanistan; and more.

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Gilles Kepel, who accompanied Macron to the Gulf, explains the impact of the French President’s visit to the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, including his meetings with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman and other Gulf leaders; the background to the $18 billion sale of French warplanes to the UAE; how the region is adapting to the Abraham Accords, economic and energy transitions, and the threat from Iran; why the Qatari mood is triumphant following the lifting the embargo; why the Muslim Brotherhood may be losing political relevance in the region; how the French policy is both a complement and a challenge to US influence in the region. Gilles Kepel is professor and director of the Middle East and Mediterranean Program at the Institute of Political Studies, Paris (Sciences Po), and host of Al-Monitor’s video podcast ‘Reading the Middle East.

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Turkey is undergoing one of the most unpredictable periods in its modern history amid mounting concern over President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's shift towards authoritarianism. His poll ratings are sagging with rising inflation and the continued depreciation of the lira stemming from Erdogan's insistence on keeping interest rates low. With elections due in 2023, many wonder whether Erdogan, fearing that he may lose, will allow them to take place at all.

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Michael Kofman, director of the CNA Russia research program, explains how Russia approaches the Iran nuclear talks; why Moscow considers Syria a remarkable and cheap success; whether Turkey and Russia can manage differences in Ukraine and elsewhere; and why Belarus and Ukraine remain key flashpoints in US-Russia relations. 

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Amberin Zaman, senior correspondent for Al-Monitor, discusses her reporting from northeastern Syria, including the devastating effect of the worst drought in seven decades; why SDF leader Mazloum Kobane doesn’t expect a Turkish attack, but is disappointed by US policy on Syria; how increasing tensions between Turkey and Russia over Ukraine could impact Syria; the tragedy of Syria’s camels; and more!

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Jim Jeffrey former US ambassador to Turkey and Iraq and the Trump Administration’s top Syria envoy has been sharply criticized for his alleged role in greenlighting Turkey’s 2019 invasion of northeast Syria which displaced hundreds of thousands of people and led to horrific rights abuses by Turkish backed opposition rebels. Jeffrey has unique insight into Ankara’s thinking and whether one agrees with him or not, he is a seasoned and knowledgeable professional. Jeffrey does not believe that Turkey will follow on its threats to mount another invasion against Syria’s Kurds anytime in the near future.

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Noor Sweid, General Partner at Global Ventures, discusses how the Middle East and North Africa region has become a global tech and innovation hub; why a young MENA population will continue to drive and demand change, including for clean energy technologies; how MENA benefits and learns from trends in the Global South, Asia and the West ; and more!

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Al-Monitor columnist Ben Caspit explains why the Israeli budget vote this week; whether Netanyahu still has a chance at a comeback; why another Gaza war is a matter of when, not if; and why Israeli leaders are worried and disappointed by the US approach to Iran.

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Fethullah Gulen, the Sunni Muslim Cleric who was accused of engineering the failed coup to overthrow Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has died in self imposed exile in the United States. Once feted as a moderate who steered generations of young Muslims away from radicalism, Gulen did untold harm to Turkey's fragile democracy, says Turkish analyst Selim Koru.

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Al-Monitor columnist Daoud Kuttab says that Jerusalem and settlements remain the big issues in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict; why Hamas is gaining in popularity; how Palestinian President Mahmoud is managed the consequences of the Abraham Accords and thinking about his legacy and succession;  and why we may see more Palestinian protests in the coming year.

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US Turkish relations remain on life support with Turkey's refusal to relinquish Russian made S 400 missiles. Turkey could face further US sanctions if Turkish president Erdogan acts on his talk about buying more Russian equipment. Turkey analyst Alan Makovsky believes this could lead to final rupture between Turkey and the NATO alliance.

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Kenneth Pollack, Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, discusses Iraq’s elections, the prospects for an agreement on an Iranian nuclear deal, and why cyber may be part of Israel’s ‘Plan B’ for Iran.

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Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director at the International Crisis Group, discusses why the Iran nuclear talks could remain in ‘suspended animation;’ why some Iranian leaders may prefer to stick with the ‘resistance economy’ rather than pursue sanctions relief under a new nuclear deal; why the window for goodwill gestures to shake up the nuclear talks may have passed; and the prospects for release of Iranian-American detainees in Iran.

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As the Biden administration vows to put an end to America's "endless wars," the United States' military campaign against the Islamic State in Syria stands out as a rare success. Several hundred US Special Operations Forces remain in northeast Syria where they are partnered with the Syria Kurds who played a critical role in defeating the jihadis. But the fallout in diplomatic terms with NATO ally Turkey has been huge. Aaron Stein, Director for Research at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, a think tank in Philadelphia, and the author of "The US War Against ISIS," reflects on this mixed picture

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Wall Street Journal National Security Reporter Vivian Salama discusses what to expect at the UN this week, including the impact of the US-France diplomatic dispute on the Middle East; why an Iran nuclear deal remains elusive; the state of UN diplomacy in Yemen, Syria and Libya; and more!

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Professor Gilles Kepel of Université Paris Sciences et Lettres, discusses his latest book, The Prophet and the Pandemic; why Saudi Arabia is shifting its center of gravity to the Red Sea; the symbolism and consequences of Erdogan’s re-Islamization of the Hagia Sophia; and how and why trends in North Africa reach the banileues of Europe.

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The debacle unfolding in Afghanistan starting with the chaotic exit of US troops has reverberated across Iraq with many Iraqis wondering whether a similar future awaits them too. Will the United States pull out of Iraq under pressure from Iran and Iranian backed militias? Will parliamentary elections that are due to be held next month help fix the political paralysis and massive corruption that engulfs the country and how are Iraq’s Kurds coping with it all. Bilal Wahab, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy addresses these questions and more.

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Turkey helped its Turkic Muslim ally Azerbaijan defeat Armenia in a short and bloody war over the mainly Armenian enclave of Nagorno Karabakh last fall. A Russian brokered peace remains in place and now Turkey says it is ready to reopen its sealed borders and establish diplomatic relations with Armenia . Armenia says it too is ready to normalize ties with Turkey. Given the tragic history, the 1915 genocide of more than a million Armenians by Ottoman forces, and the recent spate of bloodshed with Armenia losing large chunks of contested territory along with others it occupied in an earlier war, the newly dovish spirit has caught the uninitiated by surprise.

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Stephanie Williams, the former acting UN Envoy to Libya, explains the background and prospects for the UN-mediated political transition in Libya; the roles of the US, Turkey, and Russia in the diplomatic process; whether Gen Khalifa Hiftar is strengthened by the unity agreement; and the prospects for elections in December 2021.

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The risk of a region-wide war is growing as Israel carries out ground and air operations against Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon and beyond. Hezbollah and Iran have been irreversibly weakened in this latest cycle of violence, argues scholar Lina Khatib of Chatham House. 

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Al-Monitor columnist Shelly Kittleson shares observations from her reporting in Afghanistan and Iraq, including the Taliban’s relations with Iran and ISIS; what the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan might mean for ISIS in Iraq; her experiences as a woman journalist covering conflict; and her advice for journalists starting a career in international reporting.

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Tunisia has long been touted as the sole success story to emerge from the Arab Spring uprisings. However last month the country’s president sacked the prime minister and suspended the parliament in a move that’s been largely welcomed by a public fed up with a decade of unresolved corruption and poor management. So what lies next?

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Stephen Kalin, Wall Street Journal correspondent based in Riyadh, describes the scope of social, economic, and political change in Saudi Arabia; the prospects for diplomacy with Iran and an end to the Yemen war; the impact of COVID-19 on the Saudi economy; the outlook for Saudi energy policy; US-Saudi relations; and more. 

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